sparkey
Great Adventurer
- Messages
- 2,250
- Reaction score
- 352
- Points
- 0
- Location
- California
- Ethnic group
- 3/4 Colonial American, 1/8 Cornish, 1/8 Welsh
- Y-DNA haplogroup
- I2c1 PF3892+ (Swiss)
- mtDNA haplogroup
- U4a (Cornish)
So the Dutch have set an election date, following the collapse of their government after Rutte could not come to an agreement with Wilders, who was propping it up.
Polls have indicated that coalition formations could be as chaotic as last time. Here are a couple of possible outcomes based on recent polls:
De Hond/peil.nl
VVD 33
SP 30
PvdA 24
PVV 19
D66 15
CDA 11
CU 6
GroenLinks 5
SGP 3
PvdD 3
50+ 1
or
Synovate
VVD 37
PvdA 27
SP 26
PVV 18
D66 13
CDA 12
GroenLinks 5
CU 5
PvdD 4
SGP 2
50+ 1
Some apparent trends: Rutte remains personally popular, but the rest of his government isn't, so the VVD will probably remain the largest party, but his coalition partners, especially the CDA, are losing a lot of support. The left as a whole is gaining modest support, and the SP and the PvdA are locked in a battle to be the largest party on the left.
So, another right-wing coalition (VVD+CDA, propped up by PVV and/or SGP) looks impossible this time, and we're left with two likely possibilities: a left-wing coalition (SP+PvdA+D66+GL+PvdD) or what the Dutch are calling "Paars" (VVD+PvdA+D66+maybe GL), which will be a sort of liberal but not particularly right or left coalition.
I think that the outcome may be determined in part by the balance between SP and PvdA. The SP will have more trouble getting other left-leaning parties to agree to a coalition headed by them than the PvdA will. So, ironically, I'm guessing that the SP is more likely to be in government if they lose to PvdA. But the quality of Rutte's leadership, combined with the fact that a 3-party coalition is much more manageable than a 5-party coalition, makes me think that the Netherlands are heading for Rutte 2, in the form of Paars.
Polls have indicated that coalition formations could be as chaotic as last time. Here are a couple of possible outcomes based on recent polls:
De Hond/peil.nl
VVD 33
SP 30
PvdA 24
PVV 19
D66 15
CDA 11
CU 6
GroenLinks 5
SGP 3
PvdD 3
50+ 1
or
Synovate
VVD 37
PvdA 27
SP 26
PVV 18
D66 13
CDA 12
GroenLinks 5
CU 5
PvdD 4
SGP 2
50+ 1
Some apparent trends: Rutte remains personally popular, but the rest of his government isn't, so the VVD will probably remain the largest party, but his coalition partners, especially the CDA, are losing a lot of support. The left as a whole is gaining modest support, and the SP and the PvdA are locked in a battle to be the largest party on the left.
So, another right-wing coalition (VVD+CDA, propped up by PVV and/or SGP) looks impossible this time, and we're left with two likely possibilities: a left-wing coalition (SP+PvdA+D66+GL+PvdD) or what the Dutch are calling "Paars" (VVD+PvdA+D66+maybe GL), which will be a sort of liberal but not particularly right or left coalition.
I think that the outcome may be determined in part by the balance between SP and PvdA. The SP will have more trouble getting other left-leaning parties to agree to a coalition headed by them than the PvdA will. So, ironically, I'm guessing that the SP is more likely to be in government if they lose to PvdA. But the quality of Rutte's leadership, combined with the fact that a 3-party coalition is much more manageable than a 5-party coalition, makes me think that the Netherlands are heading for Rutte 2, in the form of Paars.