A
recent article on BBC News explains how the slowdown in the rate of temperature increases over the past one and a half decade has been caused by oceans sucking up this extra heat (perhaps to make up for the melting ice at the poles cooling the overall ocean levels). Once this phenomenon comes to an end, global temperature will suddenly rise and catch up with the curve of the computer model. If that is true we are in for some major economic and political upheavals worldwide.
Here is the passage in question from BBC News:
Recent research indicates that the rate of increase in emissions might be slowing down, but the gases can continue to concentrate in the atmosphere and exert a climate influence for hundreds if not thousands of years.
Scientists believe that the new data indicates that global warming will be back with a vengeance, after a slowdown in the rate of temperature increases over the past 14 years.
"The laws of physics and chemistry are not negotiable," said Michel Jarraud.
"Greenhouse gases are what they are, the laws of physics show they can only contribute to warming the system, but parts of this heat may go in different places like the oceans for some periods of time," he said.
This view was echoed by Prof Piers Forster from the University of Leeds.
"For the past decade or so the oceans have been sucking up this extra heat, meaning that surface temperatures have only increased slowly.
"Don't expect this state of affairs to continue though, the extra heat will eventually come out and bite us, so expect strong warming over the coming decades."