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Absolutely not. The Basques belong to quite specific subclades of R1b1b2a1, some found almost exclusively among the Basques and their neighbours. This strongly suggests a founder effect. My theory is that a small group of male Indo-European conquerors belonging to R1b1b2a1 lineages created an oligarchy (probably a polygamist one, as was most common in ancient times) and spread their Y-chromosomes quickly while adopting the local language of their wives and subjects.
Originally Posted by how yes no
Dienekes posted a new autosomal admixture comparison a week ago. It divides the genes of Paleolithic to Neolithic Europeans (referred to by Dienekes as "South Europeans") and those of "North Europeans" (presumably in great part Indo-Europeans).
This graph confirms that Sardinians descend overwhelmingly from the Paleolithic and Neolithic inhabitants of Europe (over 95% of their aDNA). This was further corroborated by a different study looking at craniofacial morphometric variations in Sardinian skeletons since the Neolithic. The dominant Y-DNA haplogroup in Sardinia is I2a1.
I2a1 is also found among the Basques and to a lower extent among other Iberians. MtDNA also shows connections between Basques and Sardinians.
My theory is that R1b1b2a1 progressively replaced most of the native Basque I2a1 lineages, while keeping the original Basque mtDNA lineages almost intact.
I2a1 was almost wiped out from the French Basques, contrarily to the Spanish Basques. Nevertheless, the French Basques have only about 60% of "South European" admixture in Dienekes' graph, not much more than the average French. The rest is all "North European" (i.e. Indo-European).
Why would the Basques have 40% of Indo-Europeans aDNA if they were originally R1b since the Neolithic or Paleolithic ? It doesn't make any sense. On the other hand, the admixture fits perfectly with my theory. If conquering Indo-European men took most of the Basque women for them (+ a few Indo-European women that may have accompanied them), then they would have created a new hybrid ethnic group with female Basque lineages and male Indo-European lineages. The 20% of imbalance in favour of Basque blood is easily explained by the survival of some Basque male lineages.
Given that I2a1 is more common in the Spanish Basques, I expect their aDNA to show a bit more "South European" (perhaps 70%) and a bit less Indo-European.