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I just joined this site which is extremely interesting to me. I would like to contribute the result of my analysis of various recent publications that I have read, most importantly the well known Myres et al article as well as the book :
"The horse, the wheel, and language" by David Anthony, the extensive analysis of the PIE problem.
I put pieces of my findings on the following link: (unfortunately only in French for now)
But in essence my theory about the origin of R1b, S28 and R1a is the following:
60K ago: Haplogroup CT crosses gulf of Aden from Ethiopia and follows the Arabian coast eastward (Neanderthal occupies Middle east, including Irak and western Iran, blocking progress north)
50K: Modern Humans arrive in Western India: appearance of Haplogroup F
40-35K: Haplogroup K appears in central India (very few individuals, hence little remains)
25-18K: Haplogroup R, R1, R1b appear in Northern Pakistan, right below the limit of the steppes at that time (max ice age)
This appears clearly on Myres et Al study
Later R2 will migrate back south to Southeast India; other R and R1b will migrate west toward Iran and Jordan
12-14K: Most R1b migrate from Pakistan to the caves of Bashkortostan, south the Ural mountains; this where U152 will appear during this period. Myres et al also shows this.
10K: R1b will follow Volga and other rivers to Western Ukraine, followed by R1a settling Eastern Ukraine. Both R1b and R1a are part of the Yamna PIE culture that appears around 4500BC in this area. (See Anthony). Main advantages of the culture: herding, horse, mobility (wagons) and lactose tolerance.
In the west, R1b language will give birth to the centum group of PIE languages
In the east R1a will give birth to the satem languages.
Ca 4000BC, some r1b migrate to rumania, bulgaria and cross over to Anatolia (ancestors of the Hittite)
Ca3700BC tocharian will migrate from R1a group toward urals in the direction of Western China (proven by DNA tests on mummies)
Ca3300BC migration of R1b will begin up the Danube (Celtic/Italic) and Dniester (Germanic). these are the two primary waves: Germanic toward Denmark, celtic/Italic toward switzerland
Ca3100BC: R1a will migrate northwest up the Dnieper toward western russia and Poland and back east toward Ural, Pakistan and India.
The key next step will be to find ancient R1b in the balkans to verify this but I believe the fact that Ossesians (descendants of Scythians of Western Ukraine) have a lot of R1bs among them is good indication of this theory. Also no ancient R1b was found in Western Europe prior to 3000BC.
As for the book of David Anthony he clearly shows the various steps of evolution of PIE culture and the later migration with likely dates.