And like I said, there is evidence for it, I don't know why you keep denying it. Ken Nordtvedt and Vadim Verenich are a couple of STR analyzers who have looked particularly closely at the clade. There have been studies as well, like I recall Eupedia poster "how yes no" posting some diversity maps of the clade that show that it peaks well outside of the Balkans. Quoting Nordtvedt:
At a
TMRCA of 2500 for the entire clade (S cluster being even younger), if it is Illyrian, that places the Illyrians as much later arrivals in the Balkans than expected, so late that it's a safer bet to say that it's not Illyrian at all and instead expanded out of somewhere else, probably near Belarus based on the diversity analyses I've mentioned.
That's not evidence, it's speculation, hypothesis and i believe it's totally bogus.
The 2500 year age of the clade is also speculation, based on models, which are more often than not, again, bogus.
How do you explain the modern distribution and diversity patterns if it originated in the Balkans? You run into the same supposed problems going the other way. The Balkans are isolated, but not as isolated as you imply.
It's just not plausible to believe that the low frequency gradient, and the vast area that I2a2 covers in the Balkans is a result of recent gene flow.
1) There's no evidence of it in history.
2) Evolutionary genetics indicate it's not true.
It's not a large gradient anyway, only two major clusters seem to have expanded from a tiny population that only lived between something like 2000 and 2500 years ago. Looks like a quick expansion to me.
Compared to E-V13 in the Balkans it's large. This is what the foundry aspect of a population looks like.
If we say that E-V13 came to Kosovo around 100BC to 525AD (which are 30/y 25/y generation estimates), we have an image of E-V13 in the balkans.
Notice that even a few hundred kilometers from the highest frequency of E-V13, the frequency drops to less than 10%.
This is due to
1) Geographic isolation which decreases gene flow
2) Recent arrival of E-V13 in the Balkans
Thus we see a large frequency gradient and a smaller total area. That being said, E1b1b in the Balkans does not only come from Albanian gene flow and has various other sources of gene flow.
Not really. Does the relative lack of Roman genes in England prove that there was no impact from the Anglo-Saxon invasion? Expansion of R1b-U106 in England is fairly comparable to expansion of I2a-Din in the Balkans.
You're proving the point that geographically isolated areas prevent gene flow and are not candidates for mass migrations of people.
I'm not arguing that I2a2 purely indigenous to the Balkans, my argument is that i don't believe there is any evidence to indicate that it's from recent arrival.
This is the frequency and area of I2a2 in the Balkans.
The frequency gradient is much lower (ie, the drop in frequency happens over a much larger area of land)
To me this indicates gene flow over a long period of time, and not a foundry effect such as E-V13 in the Balkans.
It is my conclusion that E-V13 arrived at the Balkans through the Greek slave trade, that it was mostly absent is many parts of the Balkans 2000 years ago and that the indigenous people of the Balkans were primarily I2a2 carriers.
The Croats being R1a carriers of north Croatia, and the Dalmatian coast being carriers of indigenous I2a2.