The founding and migration of I2a2b

[jdanel]

I accept Ken Nordtvedt's conclusions about the timing of the founding of I2a2a and b.
It is the location that seems a problem to me.
----------------
The founding, migration and near extinction of I2a2b.

If I am reading his Warped Founders Tree correctly, I2a2a and I2a2b branched
off a proto I2a2 (that no longer exists?) about 13,000 years ago. That
requires that the founders were in the same geography at that time. If
northern Germany, how did all those !2a2a get all the way back down into the
Balkans? Difficult, if not impossible. Especially with the Carpathians in the way.
Much simpler to see the location as being the area of deltas of the Danube
and Dneister. Then, perhaps in the warm spell before the Younger Dryas, the
two groups migrated upriver - I2a2a going up the Danube and I2a2b going up
the Dneister - leading to a quick clean split. The impassibility of the
Carpathians reinforced and maintained the split over time.
The I2a2b moved on, seems likely, to Doggerland and the I2a2a were contained in the Balkans.


-----------
Doggerland Genetic Bottleneck: N >>> N*
Caused by the combined effects of the Younger Dryas, the 8.200 kiloyear climate event, Lake Agassiz drainage sharply raising sea level by 3 meters, and the three Storegga tsunamis.
-
As Doggerland submerged and the land divided, the I2a2b were split - a few
on the west side and a very few, perhaps as few as a single individual, on the east but the majority were trapped and slowly dying out on shrinking Doggerland islands where they were running out of firewood (as happened at Easter Island). They had neither the marine technology to escape the slowly rising water nor the wood to make boats. This was happening during the Younger Dryas glacial period so the population would have had a hard time maintaining themselves during this long time of land subsidence and bitter cold. A population collapse would seem very likely as a result.
-
Then, after the end of the Younger Dryas, there were four catastrophic events over the span of less than a couple hundred years. Lake Agassiz drained, raising the sea level 1 to 3 meters in a matter of only a few days time and causing the "8.2 kiloyear event", a cold period, perhaps 5˚ below normal, lasting about 3 centuries. This would have caused major habitat and resource destruction in the low flat islands and shorelines of Doggerland and severe disruption of the food supply resulting great loss of life.
-
Then the remnants of Doggerland were destroyed and the remaining I2a2b were nearly exterminated by the three devastating Storegga Tsunamis about 6,200 BC creating a major genetic "bottleneck" (e.g. N*=small). This "bottleneck" might go a long ways toward explaining the very long time between the founding of I2a2b about 13,000 ya and and the TMRCA only about 5,000 ya. It might also explain the relatively low numbers of I2a2b overall.
-
It is thought that the sea rise from Lake Agassiz and the Storegga tsunamis resulted in the opening of the English Channel, isolating those peoples who were on Britain. At first the channel opening may have been narrow enough and shallow enough to walk across at low tide, but the sea level continued rising at the rate of a meter a century, so the walking period did not last very long.


----------------------
Thriving on Britain

Over on the west bank - in a large area now under water off East Anglia - Isles C was founded and thrived. The continued rise of sea level drove them to the west where they dispersed throughout Britain.
Isles A split off from a remnant of Isles B about 3000 BC. Then Isles C2 and D
split off from C about 2000 BC in Ireland.
-
Some 6,000 years after the tsunamis, and 2,500 years after the split of C and D, the Anglo-Saxon and other "late" invasions started conceivably containing some B from those very few folks left on the continent 6,000 years before. Isles is a minuscule part of the continental gene pool and therefore any contribution to the gene pool of Isles B in Britain and Ireland would be minuscule and add none at all to groups A, C, and D.
--------------
This is speculation, logical deduction, and conjecture, but it seems to fit the
currently known (to me) facts.
Thoughts? Poke holes in it so I can improve the hypothesis.
----------------
Excellent paper on the Storegga Tsunami:
The catastrophic final flooding of Doggerland by the Storegga Slide tsunami

http//sprint.clivar.org/soes/staff/ejr/Rohling-papers/2008-Weninger%20et%20al%20Documenta%20Praehistorica.pdf

[Yorkie]

The timing of the founding of I2a2a and b is not something that I know
anything about so I have to accept Ken Nordtvedt's conclusions about that.
It is the location that seems a problem to me.
----------------
The founding and migration
If I am reading his Warped Founders Tree correctly, I2a2a and I2a2b branched
off a proto I2a2 (that no longer exists?) about 13,000 years ago. That
requires that the founders were in the same geography at that time. If
northern Germany, how did all those !2a2a get all the way back down into the
Balkans? Difficult, if not impossible. Especially with the Carpathians in the way.
Much simpler to see the location as being the area of deltas of the Danube
and Dneister. Then, perhaps in the warm spell before the Younger Dryas, the
two groups migrated upriver - I2a2a going up the Danube and I2a2b going up
the Dneister - leading to a quick clean split. The impassibility of the
Carpathians reinforced and maintained the split over time.
The I2a2b moved on, seems likely, to Doggerland and the I2a2a were contained in the Balkans.
-----------
Doggerland Genetic Bottleneck: N >>> N*
Caused by the combined effects of the Younger Dryas, Lake Agassiz drainage, and the three Storegga tsunamis.
As Doggerland submerged and the land divided, the I2a2b were split - a few
on the west side and a very few on the east but the majority were trapped and slowly dying out on shrinking Doggerland islands where they were running out of firewood (as happened at Easter Island). They had neither the marine
technology to escape the slowly rising water nor the wood to make boats. This was happening during the Younger Dryas glacial period so the population would have had a hard time maintaining themselves during this long time of land subsidence and bitter cold. A population collapse would seem very likely as a result.
Then, at the end of the Younger Dryas, there were four catastrophic events
over the span of less than a couple hundred years. Lake Agassiz
drained, raising the sea level 1 to 3 meters in a matter of only a few days time. This would have caused major habitat and resource destruction in the low flat islands and shorelines of Doggerland resulting great loss of life. Then the remnants of Doggerland were destroyed and the remaining I2a2b were nearly exterminated by the three devastating Storegga Tsunamis about 6,200 BC creating a major genetic "bottleneck" (e.g. N*=small). This "bottleneck" might go a long ways toward explaining the very long time between the founding of I2a2b about 13,000 ya and and the TMRCA only about 5,000 ya. It might also explain the relatively low numbers of I2a2b overall.
[ Another intriguing idea is that the I2a2*, which has not yet been found anywhere, could have been driven to complete extinction by the combined effects of these catastrophies. ]
-------------------- --
Thriving on Britain
Over on the west bank - now England - Isles C was founded and thrived.
Isles A split off from a remnant of Isles B about 3000 BC. Then Isles C2 and D
split off from C about 2000 BC in Ireland.
Some 2,500 years after the split of C and D, the Anglo-Saxon invasion started
conceivably containing some B from those few folks left on the continent 6,000 years before. Certainly it seems this would have to be a minuscule contribution to the total gene pool of Isles B in Britain and Ireland and none at all to groups A, C, and D.
--------------
This is speculation, logical deduction, and conjecture, but it seems to fit the
currently known (to me) facts.
Thoughts? Poke holes in it so I can improve the hypothesis.
----------------
Excellent paper on the Storegga Tsunami:
The catastrophic final flooding of Doggerland by the Storegga Slide tsunami

sprint.clivar.org/soes/staff/ejr/Rohling-papers/2008-Weninger%20et%20al%20Documenta%20Praehistorica.pdf

You will have to add the hppt part because I can't post URLs yet.

Nordtvedt has dated I2a2b-Isles squarely in the Neolithic. However, there are those such as Tim Owen [see the Ingenta blog, 'Genes of the Cruthin' 2010, by Ian Adamson and Tim Owen] who have argued for a Mesolithic dating and an entry to Britain via Doggerland and possible links to the narrowblade culture.

Nordtvedt sees I2a2b-Isles as hitting the British shores around 6,000 years ago. There were other 'early I clades' too such as [the earliest] the Iberia-founded M26 I2a1, I2* and I2b1a-English.

According to Nordtvedt, I2a2b-Isles was founded in northern Germany. Perhaps it got there via LBK bands. From northern Germany, where the snp L161 was 'born', I2a2b-Isles was probably carried to Britain and Ireland via successive waves of people- pre-Celts, Celts and later Anglo-Saxons. Owen has conjectured that the Anglo-Saxons account for at least some of the I2a2b distribution in England and lowland Scotland. Apparently, Bryan Sykes is in agreement. One can envisage I2a2b carried across by Germanics in small quantities alongside I1, I2b1 and R1a1 in the historical period.

There are currently 8 subclades of I2a2b-Isles- A1, A2, B1, B2, C1, C2, D1, D2. There is a decent [for a small clade] distribution across the north European plain with examples of subclades A, C, and D as well as the oldest B subclade represented on the continent. Germany has most members.

The bulk of I2a2b-Isles is in Ireland. Here, Tim Owen has conjectured, there may be a link to the Cruthin- allegedly Ireland's earliest post-LGM inhabitants. Owen draws attention to a hotspot for subclades C and D around Rathcroghan in County Roscommon, which was once a Cruthin satellite settlement [see 'Genes of the Cruthin'], the bulk of Cruthin settlement being in Ulster.

In Ireland, the subclades appear to be concentrated in the western half of the island, in what are argubly 'refuge' areas. The distribution is spread thinly across the population. The suggestion here is of a relic, pre-Gaelic population, subsumed beneath an R1b-majority Gaelic one.

More research needs to be conducted on I2a2b. It is clearly north-west European and absent in eastern Europe. The branchlines between it and I2a2a separated some 13,000 years ago. Eventually, I hope, the databases will enlarge so that we are able to say more about this fascinating little clade.

[jdanel]

Thank you for the reply, Yorkie.
-
There is a map of this at: groups.ancestry.com/group/35649022/media/124835614
You will have to add the http// part since, as a new member, I can't post a URL nor a graphic.
-
I just want to clarify a few points (the tone of these may seem argumentative, but it is not intended that way):

"The branchlines between it and I2a2a separated some 13,000 years ago"

Nordtvedt says I2a2b founded from whom? Who were the branchlines?, 13,000 years ago ≠ neolithic in northern Germany?

"snp L161 was 'born'" about 6,000 ya, but Nordtvedt shows the split about 13,000 ya. So L161 is not the split that defines the founding? What is? The extinct? I2a2*?

"One can envisage I2a2b carried across by Germanics in small quantities". Yes, minuscule amounts however.

"[for a small clade]" I am suggesting the Doggerland disasters as the cause of that Bottleneck smallness.

"There is a decent [for a small clade] distribution across the north European plain with examples of subclades A, C, and D" I have not found that data. Where should I be looking for it?

"A, C, and D ... on the continent" Given the founding dates of A, C, and D these would have to be back migrations, would they not?

" in what are argubly 'refuge' areas" Refuge from what? From the Anglo-Saxons and Danes and such as the ice was long since gone?

"The distribution is spread thinly across the population. The suggestion here is of a relic, pre-Gaelic population, subsumed beneath an R1b-majority Gaelic one." I agree, but this is in complete conflict with Sykes ideas, isn't it?

A quote from Tim Owen: "However, I am inclined to trust Ken Nordtvedt's age estimates of I2a2b-Isles, and my view is that in many cases our clade represents some of the oldest stock in Britain [possibly Cruthin]. Having said that, I tend to see I2a2b-Isles as possibly hitting the shores in different 'waves', at different times. I can, for example, imagine a tiny percentage of I2a2b-Isles being brought to England and lowland Scotland by lower-Elbe Germanics. I struggle to envisage the Norse carrying I2a2b-Isles though- as Rootsi et al [2004] said,I2a2 is 'absent' in Scandinavia... " Not too much agreement with Sykes in this: "trust Ken", "tiny percentage" and "struggle to envisage"

[Yorkie]

Thank you for the reply, Yorkie.
-
There is a map of this at: groups.ancestry.com/group/35649022/media/124835614
You will have to add the http// part since, as a new member, I can't post a URL nor a graphic.
-
I just want to clarify a few points (the tone of these may seem argumentative, but it is not intended that way):

"The branchlines between it and I2a2a separated some 13,000 years ago"

Nordtvedt says I2a2b founded from whom? Who were the branchlines?, 13,000 years ago ≠ neolithic in northern Germany?

"snp L161 was 'born'" about 6,000 ya, but Nordtvedt shows the split about 13,000 ya. So L161 is not the split that defines the founding? What is? The extinct? I2a2*?

"One can envisage I2a2b carried across by Germanics in small quantities". Yes, minuscule amounts however.

"[for a small clade]" I am suggesting the Doggerland disasters as the cause of that Bottleneck smallness.

"There is a decent [for a small clade] distribution across the north European plain with examples of subclades A, C, and D" I have not found that data. Where should I be looking for it?

"A, C, and D ... on the continent" Given the founding dates of A, C, and D these would have to be back migrations, would they not?

" in what are argubly 'refuge' areas" Refuge from what? From the Anglo-Saxons and Danes and such as the ice was long since gone?

"The distribution is spread thinly across the population. The suggestion here is of a relic, pre-Gaelic population, subsumed beneath an R1b-majority Gaelic one." I agree, but this is in complete conflict with Sykes ideas, isn't it?

A quote from Tim Owen: "However, I am inclined to trust Ken Nordtvedt's age estimates of I2a2b-Isles, and my view is that in many cases our clade represents some of the oldest stock in Britain [possibly Cruthin]. Having said that, I tend to see I2a2b-Isles as possibly hitting the shores in different 'waves', at different times. I can, for example, imagine a tiny percentage of I2a2b-Isles being brought to England and lowland Scotland by lower-Elbe Germanics. I struggle to envisage the Norse carrying I2a2b-Isles though- as Rootsi et al [2004] said,I2a2 is 'absent' in Scandinavia... " Not too much agreement with Sykes in this: "trust Ken", "tiny percentage" and "struggle to envisage"

Hi. I'm just suggesting that the snp L161 was 'born' in northern Germany, and the date of 6,000 years ago is the first time it hit the British shores [probably entering via Scotland first, as is suggested by Owen].

The data is with Ken Nordtvedt, and also can be accessed by members of the Ancestry.com 'L161 I2a2b-Isles' group. Aiden Mulvihill compiled the map. It clearly shows members in A, C and D subclades on the continent. Nordtvedt has confirmed their presence too. Whether this is due to back-migration, I do not know.

Tim Owen's view is that the 'refuge' areas of the south-west, Connaught, parts of Ulster etc are 'refuges' for the pre-Celtic Cruthin and related peoples against the Gaelic incursions.

The only conflict between Owen and Sykes is in terms of the dating of I2a2 in Britain. Sykes is yet to be convinced by substantial dates that I2a2 dates to the Neolithic. He consequently sees all I2a2 as being brought to Britain and Ireland by 'invaders'- in England and Scotland by Anglo Saxons in the main , and in Ireland by Norse and Normans. Tim Owen's position is slightly different. He concurs with Nordtvedt's dating of I2a2 in Britain/Ireland but agrees with Sykes that in some cases the Anglo Saxons are responsible for carrying small quantities of I2a2b into England and lowland Scotland. He rejects the idea that Scandinavians were involved. His favoured Germanic carriers are definately Anglo-Saxons. Owen regards the vast bulk of I2a2b in Ireland as pre-Celtic. Originally, Nordtvedt just spoke about I2a2b as being echoes of the post-LGM settlers. Owen then suggested that different 'waves' of peoples, at different times, [pre-Celts, Celts and Anglo-Saxons, his 'lower-Elbe Germanics'] carried I2a2b to England and Scotland etc. Sykes has regarded I2a2 in Britain as having an 'invader' origin since at least the start of his Oxford Ancestors commercial testing.

Something else that might interest you. I am I2a2b on my Yline [and I1 on my Maternal Grandfather's Yline] and recently asked Peter Forster to run my haplotype through his huge, anonymised Cambridge data-base. Where was the hot-spot? England? Ireland? No... Germany! So, one rather suspects that there is more I2a2b out there on the continent than is realised. The public databases like SMGF and YSEARCH are limited. This find of Forster's is on an I2a2b-Isles D2 signature, not the oldest B subclade...

As an aside, Forster also confirmed a hot-spot of Norway for my Maternal Grandfather's I1 signature. It is worth having haplotypes reanalysed by his 'Roots for Real/Genetic Ancestor' team. Their database is much bigger than any Ysearch/SMGF database.

Which subclade of I2a2b you in, if any?

[jdanel]

Y_____, I think we may be in about 99% agreement.
-
So the born date is the 13,500 y.a., yes? (For that date, Moldova is getting my vote for now.) Then what points to the arrival in Britain as being 6,000 year ago? As opposed to 8,200 y.a. for the Storegga/Agassiz events?
----------------
"It clearly shows members in A, C and D subclades on the continent. "
One A in France, 2 D in Denmark, and 5 C elsewhere. I wouldn't suggest that shows much of a continental presence for them. Low enough to be considered irrelevant, maybe?
"So, one rather suspects that there is more I2a2b out there on the continent than is realised." Yes, definitely B, but maybe not A, C, and D. What does Forster mean by hotspot on that D2? Is he running comparisons on enough markers to make that distinction? (some suspect Sykes is not)
---------------
"6,000 years ago is the first time it hit the British shores [probably entering via Scotland first, as is suggested by Owen]" How about East Anglia, near where the landbridge was and where, at that time, the narrowest gap probably was?
-----------------
"Tim Owen's view is that the 'refuge' areas of the south-west, Connaught, parts of Ulster etc are 'refuges' for the pre-Celtic Cruthin and related peoples against the Gaelic incursions." I think this must be the case, but...
Sykes says "in Ireland by Norse and Normans." If so, then the clear zone around Dublin on Aiden's map would be filled with various I2a2, when in fact it is devoid of such. And also would be stronger in the Anglo Saxon areas, but it is not.
Yes, some tiny bit showed up with the later invaders, but the vast majority seems to be from the early invaders.
-----------------------
I am Isles A1 with my closest - 750 y.a. - links to O'Driscolls of Cork. The genealogy says Cheshire and Bristol, but no dna matches from anywhere in England yet.
-------------------------
This is the url for the hi-resolution map. http://danel.us/resources/Grandfathers+Path7.gif

[jdanel]

[Yorkie]

Y_____, I think we may be in about 99% agreement.
-
So the born date is the 13,500 y.a., yes? (For that date, Moldova is getting my vote for now.) Then what points to the arrival in Britain as being 6,000 year ago? As opposed to 8,200 y.a. for the Storegga/Agassiz events?
----------------
"It clearly shows members in A, C and D subclades on the continent. "
One A in France, 2 D in Denmark, and 5 C elsewhere. I wouldn't suggest that shows much of a continental presence for them. Low enough to be considered irrelevant, maybe?
"So, one rather suspects that there is more I2a2b out there on the continent than is realised." Yes, definitely B, but maybe not A, C, and D. What does Forster mean by hotspot on that D2? Is he running comparisons on enough markers to make that distinction? (some suspect Sykes is not)
---------------
"6,000 years ago is the first time it hit the British shores [probably entering via Scotland first, as is suggested by Owen]" How about East Anglia, near where the landbridge was and where, at that time, the narrowest gap probably was?
-----------------
"Tim Owen's view is that the 'refuge' areas of the south-west, Connaught, parts of Ulster etc are 'refuges' for the pre-Celtic Cruthin and related peoples against the Gaelic incursions." I think this must be the case, but...
Sykes says "in Ireland by Norse and Normans." If so, then the clear zone around Dublin on Aiden's map would be filled with various I2a2, when in fact it is devoid of such. And also would be stronger in the Anglo Saxon areas, but it is not.
Yes, some tiny bit showed up with the later invaders, but the vast majority seems to be from the early invaders.
-----------------------
I am Isles A1 with my closest - 750 y.a. - links to O'Driscolls of Cork. The genealogy says Cheshire and Bristol, but no dna matches from anywhere in England yet.
-------------------------
http://danel.us/resources/Grandfathers+Path6.gif

This is the url for the map. I am going to try to post it here when I get the size reduced enough.

Nordtvedt suggested the date of 6,000 years for when I2a2b first hit the shores. My mathematics is not up to me arguing why not.

As far as I recall, Nordtvedt had a full record of continental members for each subclade. I wish I could find them, and might email to get them again. There are more members for the continent than Aiden's map shows. There are Ds in Belgium and Germany for a start. Ken described continental membership himself as 'decent' recently.

Forster tested me on 43 markers- enough resolution to make Germany the hotspot. Don't forget, his Cambridge database is one of the biggest globally.

As I said previoualy, I too think the bulk [which is located in Ireland] came with the 'early invaders', i.e, pre-Celts. However, the English and lowland Scots distribution suggests the Anglo-Saxons played a part, as Sykes too suggests. It may be a small part but it is worth emphasising. What concerns me is an accurate picture of I2a2b, as I am sure that that is the same for you. In the past, people tended to regard I2a2b-Isles as Ken calls it as an 'Irish' clade. Clearly, that is no longer tenable with enough membership elsewhere, especially in England, to challenge any idea of an Irish monopoly on the clade.

What does intrigue me, and I wonder what your view on this is, why there appears to be an absence of I2a2b in Wales?

No offence intended but I seriously don't think we can tie I2a2b in Ireland with black hair etc. The so-called 'Black Irish' are far more likely to be R1b. In any case, some I2a2b are fair-haired Englishmen [admittedly, in my case, with an I1 Maternal Grandfather who gets more Norwegian matches than British].

Good to see that there are fellow researchers out there like your good self with a passion for I2a2b. We really don't have enough data as yet though.

[Dan Zavoianu]

More research needs to be conducted on I2a2b. It is clearly north-west European and absent in eastern Europe. The branchlines between it and I2a2a separated some 13,000 years ago. Eventually, I hope, the databases will enlarge so that we are able to say more about this fascinating little clade.

Hello! I'm I2a2b according to 23and me and my family lives in central Romania for generations. What do you think on that?

[how yes no 2]

The timing of the founding of I2a2a and b is not something that I know
anything about so I have to accept Ken Nordtvedt's conclusions about that.
It is the location that seems a problem to me.
----------------
The founding and migration
If I am reading his Warped Founders Tree correctly, I2a2a and I2a2b branched
off a proto I2a2 (that no longer exists?) about 13,000 years ago. That
requires that the founders were in the same geography at that time. If
northern Germany, how did all those !2a2a get all the way back down into the
Balkans? Difficult, if not impossible. Especially with the Carpathians in the way.
Much simpler to see the location as being the area of deltas of the Danube
and Dneister. Then, perhaps in the warm spell before the Younger Dryas, the
two groups migrated upriver - I2a2a going up the Danube and I2a2b going up
the Dneister - leading to a quick clean split. The impassibility of the
Carpathians reinforced and maintained the split over time.
The I2a2b moved on, seems likely, to Doggerland and the I2a2a were contained in the Balkans.

great explanation!
there is some I2a2a as far as south Germany...
I2b probably did take Dniester route together with I2a2b...

Seneca's mention of Serians in Europe is related to Danube

and Byzantine emperor did record (though several centuries after the event) settlements of Serbs from Bohemia on Balkan...and Bohemia is on this route along the Danube...

Scordisci are as well spread along this route.... from them tribe named Serdi entered Thrace...




btw. this source area between Dniester and Danube is roughly Moldova... Moldova has high frequency of I2a2 but the variance is low there, much lower than area just northeast of it above Black sea... so perhaps the source was above Black sea and still the routes of spread towards west were twofold as indicated by you...

spread could have been all around Black sea,,,as Veneti are on south shores of Black sea... later when Veneti moved to Europe they settled also in area of north Adriatic coast and due to that today there is variance hotspot in Slovenia....
according to Jordanes, early Slavs belong to populous race of Veneti

[Dan Zavoianu]

I'm I2a2b and not the only one. My father and ancestors lived for at least 200 years near where you see Craiova at the Center of Romania roughly close to Danube..

great explanation!
there is some I2a2a as far as south Germany...
I2b probably did take Dniester route together with I2a2b...

Seneca's mention of Serians in Europe is related to Danube

and Byzantine emperor did record (though several centuries after the event) settlements of Serbs from Bohemia on Balkan...and Bohemia is on this route along the Danube...

Scordisci are as well spread along this route.... from them tribe named Serdi entered Thrace...

btw. this source area between Dniester and Danube is roughly Moldova... Moldova has high frequency of I2a2 but the variance is low there, much lower than area just northeast of it above Black sea... so perhaps the source was above Black sea and still the routes of spread towards west were twofold as indicated by you...

spread could have been all around Black sea,,,as Veneti are on south shores of Black sea... later when Veneti moved to Europe they settled also in area of north Adriatic coast and due to that today there is variance hotspot in Slovenia....
according to Jordanes, early Slavs belong to populous race of Veneti

[jdanel]

TMRCA, per Nordtvedt May 2010

L161 – Isles-A --- 1500 years
L161 – Isles-B --- 5370 years including Continental haplotypes
L161 – Isles-B --- 4740 years excluding all Continental haplotypes
L161 – Isles-C --- 2730 years
L161 – Isles-D --- 2520 years

[jdanel]

Wales is a very interesting question and I have not seen anyone post a reasonable suggestion as to why that might be. The clear zone (to whatever extent that it is not just a data artifact) around Dublin does have a probable cause, but not Wales so far as I know. No idea at all.

43 markers should be plenty. Too bad we can't get open access to the data, linking through y-search or some such.

Maybe the 6,000 years relates to the timing of the AB/CD node independent of geography. If the 8,200 years is out, then we need a way to get the continentals back across the channel with their TMRCA of 5,600 years. By 6,000 ya, the English Channel was a serious obstacle.

As to the hair - I yield.

[Yorkie]

Wales is a very interesting question and I have not seen anyone post a reasonable suggestion as to why that might be. The clear zone (to whatever extent that it is not just a data artifact) around Dublin does have a probable cause, but not Wales so far as I know. No idea at all.

43 markers should be plenty. Too bad we can't get open access to the data, linking through y-search or some such.

Maybe the 6,000 years relates to the timing of the AB/CD node independent of geography. If the 8,200 years is out, then we need a way to get the continentals back across the channel with their TMRCA of 5,600 years. By 6,000 ya, the English Channel was a serious obstacle.

As to the hair - I yield.

I'll email Ken and try to find out the up to date breakdown of continental members in the subclades. There is more data than on Aiden's map [good though it is].

[Yorkie]

From March 2010 [Rootsweb], Ken Nordtvedt gave the following breakdown of continental members [Germany, France, Belgium etc] of the subclades of L161 I2a2b-Isles:

Clade A: 0/48
Clade B: 17/51
Clade C: 7/55
Clade D: 6/68

So there were then 30 continentals out of 222 known 'Isles' haplotypes.

[jdanel]

No Clade A. Surprising.

17 B may be what we expected and C being the next oldest may be expected to be proportional, but D, being the youngest and about equal to C, is another surprise.

Do you have any thoughts on why this shakes out like this?

If the C and D were due to some random back migration over time, why not A? Seems very odd.

-----
222 total is not too far from the number on Aiden's map. Maybe it just needs a minor update.

----
I think KN said he has looked through tens of thousands of tests. I wonder how large the number of total samples is that contains our 222 intrepid souls. A couple of tens of thousands would put us in the 1% range.

[Yorkie]

No Clade A. Surprising.

17 B may be what we expected and C being the next oldest may be expected to be proportional, but D, being the youngest and about equal to C, is another surprise.

Do you have any thoughts on why this shakes out like this?

If the C and D were due to some random back migration over time, why not A? Seems very odd.

-----
222 total is not too far from the number on Aiden's map. Maybe it just needs a minor update.

----
I think KN said he has looked through tens of thousands of tests. I wonder how large the number of total samples is that contains our 222 intrepid souls. A couple of tens of thousands would put us in the 1% range.

JD,
Actually, I have an update for you- Ken emailed me back with some more up to date statistics:

Clade A: 1/53
Clade B: 18/65
Clade C: 5/63
Clade D: 6/80

Maybe he reclassified a few haplotypes, but this is the score as of now. So the latest figure is 30 continentals out of 261 known 'Isles' haplotypes. That we are a little group is beyond doubt. Mind you, I only think of the paternal Y line as part of my ancestry [which it is]. I am equally 'into' my Maternal Grandfather's I1 and my Mtdna U5a1. We are the product of many ancestral lines after all.

As to why C and D pan out the way they do, I haven't really an answer. I think Aiden suggested back-migration. If so, when? What a puzzle this is.

By the way, I can't access the Ancestry.com group and have lost Aiden's home email. If you are in touch, please ask him to contact me.

[jdanel]

Y_____, I have sent Aiden a message to contact you.

The new numbers are then:

Britain & Ireland Continent
Clade A: 52 1
Clade B: 47 18
Clade C: 58 5
Clade D: 74 6

This seems regular enough that there may not be any firm conclusions to be drawn. But I will do it anyway.

Clade A O'Driscolls in Cork are thought to include group of seafaring traders with regular trade with France, Spain, and England. Surely somebody must have jumped ship in some port or other. But there is only that one lonely continental. Odd.

I still think the C and D continentals are random events, not back "migrations" - but somebody jumping ship or leaving a "souvenir" during a walk-about - at the rate of about one or two per millenium for each clade. At that really really-low rate, maybe Clade A is not that far off target either.

The B, with fewer than the other clades in UK and more than 25% on the continent, would seem support for the splitting of B with the splitting of Doggerland concept.

I also wonder if the B2 would be selectively in England or B1 on the continent or vv. Could he break it down like that perhaps? That would really be getting into small number statistics.

[jdanel]

First, lets be clear that I do not understand the mathematics, but I have been looking at the equations on KN's home page.

It seems to me that the built in uncertainties based on statistics of a small number of data points (and 222 is a small number) and somewhat inexact variabilities could easily have a range that would include the 8,200 year event.

6,000 may be the peak on the probability curve, but it is probably a quite wide and flat curve.

[jdanel]

"O'Rahilly's historical model ... distinguished four separate waves of Celtic invaders:
The Cruithne or Priteni (c. 700 – 500 BC)
The Builg or Érainn (c. 500 BC)
The Laigin, the Domnainn and the Gálioin (c. 300 BC)
The Goidels or Gael (c. 100 BC)"

These dates are millenia AFTER Isles people were already in Britain. So, even though this model is known to have errors, it seems that it would be impossible for Isles A to be Érainn or Fir Bolg and for Isles C or D to be Cruithne. We were there long before these later invaders.

In the legends, who was always already there when the invaders arrived?

The Fomorians.

Maybe that's who we are.

[Yorkie]

"O'Rahilly's historical model ... distinguished four separate waves of Celtic invaders:
The Cruithne or Priteni (c. 700 – 500 BC)
The Builg or Érainn (c. 500 BC)
The Laigin, the Domnainn and the Gálioin (c. 300 BC)
The Goidels or Gael (c. 100 BC)"

These dates are millenia AFTER Isles people were already in Britain. So, even though this model is known to have errors, it seems that it would be impossible for Isles A to be Érainn or Fir Bolg and for Isles C or D to be Cruithne. We were there long before these later invaders.

In the legends, who was always already there when the invaders arrived?

The Fomorians.

Maybe that's who we are.

It depends on 'who' you think the Cruthin were. Tim Owen and Ian Adamson regard the Cruthin as the very earliest post-LGM settlers in Ireland. To reiterate, Owen mentions a hotspot for C and D in Rathcroghan, Roscommon; an alleged Cruthin satellite settlement.

Regarding D subclade of 'Isles', there is some in England and Scotland too, including East Anglia and London, and for people with non-Irish surnames. It occurs in Belgium and Germany as well, whether by random event, back-migration or magic, I do not know...

[jdanel]

So if the Cruthin were Celtic, they were much too late. And If pre-Celtic, then maybe.

Or both:

Considering that Isles may be about 1% of the population, maintaining a cultural identity would seen to be a very difficult thing. We are seeing this in modern times with the on-going extinction of small languages everywhere.

There may be a lower threshold for the ability to maintain a culture and it may be as high as 5% to 10%.

(this is a subject that I know very little about. African-Americans are about 10% of the US population and those efforts to maintain a distinctive culture seem to me to be borderline successful, but unsustainable. So 10% looks to be below the threshold. On the other hand, Latinos with 20% or more in some areas are apparently maintaining theirs. But we are looking at a very short timeline on these events, so we will have to wait to see how it comes out.).

If so, Isles has been below the threshold, basically from the beginning.

This could have resulted in tiny minority pre-Cruthin peoples, like Isles, quickly taking on - melting into - the Cruthin culture, and thus thoroughly clouding the issue.

The same applies to Isles A and the Corcu Shogain of Cork, which appears to have been a tiny and isolated branch of the main Sogain from up in Ui Maine territory. Probably(?) Isles A of Cork melted into the Corcu Shogain which melted into the dominant culture.

-------------------

I'm not sure the surname is important since they were only taken up a few hundred years ago. In my own case, my dna says Cork a long time ago perhaps among pre-Sogain folks, but the surname is apparently from Cheshire about 500 years ago. That leaves a millenium or so for one of those random events to have eventually generated my surnamed ancestor in England.

[Yorkie]

So if the Cruthin were Celtic, they were much too late. And If pre-Celtic, then maybe.

Or both:

Considering that Isles may be about 1% of the population, maintaining a cultural identity would seen to be a very difficult thing. We are seeing this in modern times with the on-going extinction of small languages everywhere.

There may be a lower threshold for the ability to maintain a culture and it may be as high as 5% to 10%.

(this is a subject that I know very little about. African-Americans are about 10% of the US population and those efforts to maintain a distinctive culture seem to me to be borderline successful, but unsustainable. So 10% looks to be below the threshold. On the other hand, Latinos with 20% or more in some areas are apparently maintaining theirs. But we are looking at a very short timeline on these events, so we will have to wait to see how it comes out.).

If so, Isles has been below the threshold, basically from the beginning.

This could have resulted in tiny minority pre-Cruthin peoples, like Isles, quickly taking on - melting into - the Cruthin culture, and thus thoroughly clouding the issue.



The same applies to Isles A and the Corcu Shogain of Cork, which appears to have been a tiny and isolated branch of the main Sogain from up in Ui Maine territory. Probably(?) Isles A of Cork melted into the Corcu Shogain which melted into the dominant culture.

-------------------

I'm not sure the surname is important since they were only taken up a few hundred years ago. In my own case, my dna says Cork a long time ago perhaps among pre-Sogain folks, but the surname is apparently from Cheshire about 500 years ago. That leaves a millenium or so for one of those random events to have eventually generated my surnamed ancestor in England.

Tim Owen and Ian Adamson ['Genes of the Cruthin' blog, 2010] see the Cruthin not as Celts but as the earliest, post-LGM settlers to Ireland. Owen links L161 I2a2b-Isles to them. However, in England and lowland Scotland Owen suggests that some must have arrived via Anglo-Saxons. Re the latter, Bryan Sykes, Anatole Klyoso and Jean Manco share that view.

Your take on the Irish scenario is interesting, JD. You see them as a tiny minority 'joining' the Cruthin. That is a fascinating idea, but if so, who were the Cruthin then? I think they were I2a2b-Isles.

The 'Isles' clades C and D definately have a hotspot in the former Cruthin satellite settlement of Rathcroghan. I don't see any other patterns with early I clades like that. It appears that M26 I2a1 got to the shores before L161 I2a2b-Isles, and maybe I2b1a-English might have, but the German-founded 'Isles' has a 'refuge' type distribution in Ireland most suggestive of a pre-Gaelic folk. Whatever the truth is, one thing is for sure, that in Ireland the R1bs won the demographic war.

I agree with you re surnames. Sometimes they are important but sometimes not. I noticed in the Wirral Project that some men bearing R1a1 and I1 'Viking' signatures bore Anglo-Saxon names.

[how yes no 2]

"O'Rahilly's historical model ... distinguished four separate waves of Celtic invaders:
The Cruithne or Priteni (c. 700 – 500 BC)
The Builg or Érainn (c. 500 BC)
The Laigin, the Domnainn and the Gálioin (c. 300 BC)
The Goidels or Gael (c. 100 BC)"

These dates are millenia AFTER Isles people were already in Britain. So, even though this model is known to have errors, it seems that it would be impossible for Isles A to be Érainn or Fir Bolg and for Isles C or D to be Cruithne. We were there long before these later invaders.

In the legends, who was always already there when the invaders arrived?

The Fomorians.

Maybe that's who we are.

The race are known as the Fomoire or Fomoiri, names that are often Anglicised as Fomorians, Fomors or Fomori. Later in Middle Irish they are also known as the Fomóraig. The etymology of the name Fomoire (plural) has been cause for some debate. Medieval Irish scholars thought the name contained the element muire "sea", owing to their reputation as sea pirates.[1] In 1888, John Rhys was the first to suggest that it is an Old Irish word composed of fo "under/below" and muire "sea", concluding that it may refer to beings whose (original) habitat is under the sea.[2] Observing two instances of the early genitive form fomra, Kuno Meyer arrives at the same etymology, but takes it to refer to land by the sea.[3] Whitley Stokes and Rudolf Thurneysen, on the other hand, prefer to connect the second element *mor with a supposed Old English cognate mara "mare" (which survives today in the English word night-mare).[4][5] Building on these hypotheses, Marie-Louise Sjoestedt interprets the combination of fo and the root *mor as a compound meaning "inferior" or "latent demons".[6]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fomorians

Fomor might be corruption of Gomer ...

According to tractate Yoma, in the Talmud, Gomer is identified as the ancestor of the Gomermians, modern Germans.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gomer

this relation of potentially I2a2-Isles Fomorians with Gomer makes sense as modern Germans do correlate with spread of haplogroup I, namely I1 and I2b

hm, this is fun to read...

In Irish mythology, the Fomoire (or Fomorians) are a semi-divine race said to have inhabited Ireland in ancient times. They may have once been believed to be the beings who preceded the gods, similar to the Greek Titans.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fomorians

In Islamic folklore, the Persian historian Muhammad ibn Jarir al-Tabari (c. 915) recounts a Persian tradition that Gomer lived to the age of 1000, noting that this record equalled that of Nimrod, but was unsurpassed by anyone else mentioned in the Torah.[1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gomer

btw. Serians/Seres whom I believe to be ancestors of I2a2 Serbs also lived long

The Greek geographer Strabo mentioned the Seres in his "Geographia", written early in the 1st century, in two passages. He also alludes to the longevity of the Seres, said to exceed two hundred years, and quotes from "some writers":

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seres

btw. you can read more on Serians of Seneca e.g. here
http://www.eupedia.com/forum/showpos...4&postcount=17
http://www.eupedia.com/forum/showpos...5&postcount=22
http://www.eupedia.com/forum/showpos...&postcount=122

I think that spread of haplogroup I started in Persia in province of Kerman

Historical documents refer to Kerman as "Karmania", "Kermania", "Germania" and "Žermanya", which means bravery and combat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerman_province

for more details see http://www.eupedia.com/forum/showpos...3&postcount=25

The modern-day Georgian word for hero, გმირი, gmiri, is derived from the word Gimirri.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cimmerians

The Hebrew name Gomer is widely considered to refer to the Cimmerians (Akkadian Gimirru, "complete"), who dwelt on the Eurasian Steppes[4] and attacked Assyria in the late 7th century BC. The Assyrians called them Gimmerai ; the Cimmerian king Teushpa was defeated by Assarhadon of Assyria sometime between 681 and 668 BC.[5]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gomer

The Cimmerian occupation of Lydia was brief, however, possibly due to an outbreak of plague. Between 637 and 626 BC, they were beaten back by Alyattes II of Lydia. This defeat marked the effective end of Cimmerian power. The term Gimirri was used about a century later in the Behistun inscription (ca. 515 BC) as a Babylonian equivalent of Persian Saka (Scythians). Otherwise Cimmerians disappeared from western Asian historical accounts, and their fate was unknown. It has been speculated that they settled in Cappadocia, known in Armenian as Գամիրք, Gamir-kʿ (the same name as the original Cimmerian homeland in Mannae).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cimmerians

Gomer island in Cappadocia in Asia minor and north of Black sea are today I2a2 areas...



http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...sworld_map.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Noahsworld_map.jpg

The medieval myth of Partholon says that his followers were the first to invade Ireland after the flood, but the Fomorians were already there: Seathrún Céitinn reports a tradition that the Fomorians, led by Cíocal, had arrived two hundred years earlier and lived on fish and fowl until Partholon came, bringing the plough and oxen. Partholon defeated Cíocal in the Battle of Magh Ithe, but all his people later died of plague.
Then came Nemed and his followers. Ireland is said to have been empty for thirty years following the death of Partholon's people, but Nemed and his followers encountered the Fomorians when they arrived. At this point Céitinn reports another tradition that the Fomorians were seafarers from Africa, descended from Noah's son Ham. Nemed defeated them in several battles, killing their leaders Gann (1) and Sengann (1) (note that there were two Fir Bolg kings of the same name), but two new Fomorian leaders arose: Conand son of Faebar, who lived in Conand's Tower on Tory Island, County Donegal, and Morc son of Dela (note that the first generation of the Fir Bolg were also said to be sons of Dela).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fomorians

seafarers may be related to sea peoples...but it also can be about haplogroup E spread from Africa, also because they do origin from Noah's son Ham, while Gomer is son of Noah's son Japhet...

link to fir-Bolgars is interesting... as Bulgars are also among south Slavs and I2a2 is somewhat concentrated in South Slavs...
besides I personally think that names Serbs, Macedonians, Bulgars might be derived from mythical queen of Sheba who was in south of her country known as Makeda, and among Arabs as Balkis....
proto-Bulgars are supposed to be non-Slavic people who were akin to Huns and Avars and took over language from Slavic people over whom they rulled...however some medieval chronicle of south Slavs claims that south Slavs are Goths and that Bulgars did speak same language as them...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic...iest_of_Duklja
btw. south Slavs are not Goths...Goths were perhaps I1 or R1b dominant...Slavs are according to Jordanes of Veneti race and I have elsewhere shown indications for that....

Serians might be same as Cimmerians though...and Veneti might be offspring of Cimmerians/Gomer as well...

Riphath (ree-fath)- a crusher, Gomer's second son (Gen. 10:3, 1 Chronicles 1:6), supposed by Josephus to have been the ancestor of the Paphlagonians.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riphath

....at the present time, they say, there are no Eneti to be seen in Paphlagonia, though some say that there is a village12 on the Aegialus13 ten schoeni14 distant from Amastris. But Zenodotus writes "from Enete,"15 and says that Homer clearly indicates the Amisus of today. And others say that a tribe called Eneti, bordering on the Cappadocians, made an expedition with the Cimmerians and then were driven out to the Adriatic Sea.16 But the thing upon which there is general agreement is, that the Eneti, to whom Pylaemenes belonged, were the most notable tribe of the Paphlagonians, and that, furthermore, these made the expedition with him in very great numbers, but, losing their leader, crossed over to Thrace after the capture of Troy, and on their wanderings went to the Enetian country,17 as it is now called. According to some writers, Antenor and his children took part in this expedition and settled at the recess of the Adriatic, as mentioned by me in my account of Italy.18 It is therefore reasonable to suppose that it was on this account that the Eneti disappeared and are not to be seen in Paphlagonia. [9]

http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/...thracian,eneti

I hold that Eneti separated in Thrace giving Vistula Veneti, Adriatic Veneti and Sarmatian Venedi (who are likely same as Antes)

[how yes no 2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fomorians

Fomor might be corruption of Gomer ...


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gomer

this relation of potentially I2a2-Isles Fomorians with Gomer makes sense as modern Germans do correlate with spread of haplogroup I, namely I1 and I2b
.....

Gomer island in Cappadocia in Asia minor and north of Black sea are today I2a2 areas...



http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...sworld_map.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Noahsworld_map.jpg

The medieval myth of Partholon says that his followers were the first to invade Ireland after the flood, but the Fomorians were already there: Seathrún Céitinn reports a tradition that the Fomorians, led by Cíocal, had arrived two hundred years earlier and lived on fish and fowl until Partholon came, bringing the plough and oxen. Partholon defeated Cíocal in the Battle of Magh Ithe, but all his people later died of plague.
Then came Nemed and his followers. Ireland is said to have been empty for thirty years following the death of Partholon's people, but Nemed and his followers encountered the Fomorians when they arrived. At this point Céitinn reports another tradition that the Fomorians were seafarers from Africa, descended from Noah's son Ham. Nemed defeated them in several battles, killing their leaders Gann (1) and Sengann (1) (note that there were two Fir Bolg kings of the same name), but two new Fomorian leaders arose: Conand son of Faebar, who lived in Conand's Tower on Tory Island, County Donegal, and Morc son of Dela (note that the first generation of the Fir Bolg were also said to be sons of Dela).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fomorians

seafarers may be related to sea peoples...but it also can be about haplogroup E spread from Africa, also because they do origin from Noah's son Ham, while Gomer is son of Noah's son Japhet...
...

seafarers from Africa could be Garamantes !!
http://www.eupedia.com/forum/showpos...8&postcount=86

but this may more likely be about spread of I2a1 in UK...

[jdanel]

I have been using this as a TMRCA calculator. The variables are from about 2006. Is this still the appropriate one to use or is there a better one?

http://dna-project.clan-donald-usa.org/tmrca.htm