Economy Reuters: Riots shake faith in UK austerity, stability

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Reuters: Riots shake faith in UK austerity, stability

I sincerely hope that these riots don't work and sway public opinion and markets away from the UK government. Not only could that encourage more riots in the future, but it would sway one of the most important world economies away from one of the world's few decent debt-solving plans. I've been surprised with how much the coverage of this has focused on how it could be the government's fault, rather than placing the blame solely on the rioters.

If the situation was reversed and we had right-wing rioters against a left-wing government, the right-wing rioters would be fully blamed (and rightfully so) and public opinion would likely sway toward the party in power. Nobody would say that the riots "have undermined" the government's "model, raising questions about the sustainability" of it. People would condemn the nasty political climate instead, and I think that's what we should do here.

Stay the course, UK... don't let this turn you into the US...
 
I think you are right in the point that even though violation by rioters is condemned by all parts, especially in Europe there has always been some more silence about violence done by those in favor of leftist ideas or anarchists, opposed to violence done by rightists.

I suppose we can agree upon the fact, and most people here also do, that these riots had no direct political motivation, but were launched out of frustration by the underprivileged of society. These riots remind me very much of those stunning similiar riots which happened in France in 2005. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_civil_unrest_in_France
You may make the government responsible for the circumstances in society, and for it's reaction during the riots. But critics will come from all directions, especially from the extreme right and from the extreme left. So in the end it will be a draw.

What concerns me much more at the moment is that extreme thoughts are gaining widely ground in Europe. Mistrust into governments, state-forms as democracy, economic systems, as well as irrational search of scape goats is increasing very much. And I can tell from my very own relatives and people I have to do with, that those who once were open to other cultures (also like foreigners) and supported the system we are living in, got me shocked by statements with which I didn't notice my old people again. When the costs of estates and living costs are rising, while at the same time health care services and pensions are cut down, world views don't seem to be the same anymore.

I am pretty sure with with the financial crisis which is still just at it's beginning, we will have a vast change in the European landscape next year. It will start in France with the presidential elections. Already in March 2011 the Front National with Marine Le Pen was ahead of Sarkozy (23% to 21%), and I'm PRETTY SURE they will win the election next year. Leaving the Euro and EU and massive expulsion of Muslims were just some of the points they promoted. And they will be backed up by the "True Finns" in Finland and the "FPÖ" in Austria, who will also win next year. Add other friends like Lega Nord, Geert Wilders etc. to it.

I am really worried!
 
I suppose we can agree upon the fact, and most people here also do, that these riots had no direct political motivation, but were launched out of frustration by the underprivileged of society.

At the very least, the political motivations of the riots are incoherent. Still, they do have a left-wing underpinning, which is somewhat expected. This is enlightening, or at least embarrassing.

You may make the government responsible for the circumstances in society, and for it's reaction during the riots.

Agreed entirely... although I'm currently willing to defend the UK government (to a point) over what they've done in general and in response to the riots. The minimization of police brutality has been admirable. At least, I haven't heard of any cases of it during the riots yet.

What concerns me much more at the moment is that extreme thoughts are gaining widely ground in Europe. Mistrust into governments, state-forms as democracy, economic systems, as well as irrational search of scape goats is increasing very much. And I can tell from my very own relatives and people I have to do with, that those who once were open to other cultures (also like foreigners) and supported the system we are living in, got me shocked by statements with which I didn't notice my old people again. When the costs of estates and living costs are rising, while at the same time health care services and pensions are cut down, world views don't seem to be the same anymore.

I am pretty sure with with the financial crisis which is still just at it's beginning, we will have a vast change in the European landscape next year. It will start in France with the presidential elections. Already in March 2011 the Front National with Marine Le Pen was ahead of Sarkozy (23% to 21%), and I'm PRETTY SURE they will win the election next year. Leaving the Euro and EU and massive expulsion of Muslims were just some of the points they promoted. And they will be backed up by the "True Finns" in Finland and the "FPÖ" in Austria, who will also win next year. Add other friends like Lega Nord, Geert Wilders etc. to it.

I am really worried!

I don't see all this happening as quickly as you suggest, although the rise of the far-right (I prefer authoritarians) has undoubtedly accelerated in response to the crisis. But takeovers of countries by these sorts of parties has been rare--the only example I can think of is Switzerland.

I found the election of Cameron+Clegg in the UK an unusual buck of the trend, as the BNP continued irrelevancy and the UK apparently elected the path of austerity, not the "blame-the-Muslims" path you expect from the authoritarians or the "resist-austerity-at-all-costs" you expect from the leftists. Personally, I think that the Cameron+Clegg election was a smart way to go, which is why I've been paying attention to how it pans out. And I've been disappointed not with the results of the program, but the reaction of the UK public, who I see itching to fall back to the Labour-type policies that caused the need for austerity in the first place. I don't see any such itch for the BNP-type policies, though, maybe that's because the authoritarians are comfortable with a right-leaning government? Or is it just a different dynamic in the UK as in the rest of Europe?
 
At the very least, the political motivations of the riots are incoherent. Still, they do have a left-wing underpinning, which is somewhat expected. This is enlightening, or at least embarrassing.

Well ok it has, but what other reply do you expect from those teenage girls? The kids are full of frustration and violent energy, and in order to defend their actions they have to make up some socio-critical explanation. And "Showing the rich we can do what we want" sounds more plausible when you break in shops and steal things, than "this nation is getting too communist". I really don't think that the average citizen and thus the majority are influenced very much by these teenage statements.


Agreed entirely... although I'm currently willing to defend the UK government (to a point) over what they've done in general and in response to the riots. The minimization of police brutality has been admirable. At least, I haven't heard of any cases of it during the riots yet.
No I am defending the UK government, too. They did a good job so far. What I meant was that IF you critizise it, it could come from any political opposition, left and right. Critics aren't swaying into a specific direction.


I don't see all this happening as quickly as you suggest, although the rise of the far-right (I prefer authoritarians) has undoubtedly accelerated in response to the crisis. But takeovers of countries by these sorts of parties has been rare--the only example I can think of is Switzerland.
Usually I tend not to be extreme in thoughts either. But circumstances can change and what is unheard of today can become reality tomorrow. So far political thoughts are only slowly changing in Europe, and might be more extreme of course only in Greece right now. Luckily Greece was, well at least partly, backed up by the EU so far. But if the financial crisis continues, more states turn bankrupt, inflation reaches new peaks and all governments have to cut everywhere, there won't be anyone who is willing to help anyone else anymore. Subsequently more people will seek for quick and radical reforms.


I found the election of Cameron+Clegg in the UK an unusual buck of the trend, as the BNP continued irrelevancy and the UK apparently elected the path of austerity, not the "blame-the-Muslims" path you expect from the authoritarians or the "resist-austerity-at-all-costs" you expect from the leftists. Personally, I think that the Cameron+Clegg election was a smart way to go, which is why I've been paying attention to how it pans out. And I've been disappointed not with the results of the program, but the reaction of the UK public, who I see itching to fall back to the Labour-type policies that caused the need for austerity in the first place. I don't see any such itch for the BNP-type policies, though, maybe that's because the authoritarians are comfortable with a right-leaning government?
Mmh, I agree that some political perceptions of the public are somewhat consistent, even though not up-to-date anymore. A globalized, dynamic world with regular changes in science, economy and politics are sometimes not compatible with structures that still remain in most heads. Otherwise how should one explain why British labour-unions act as if they were in 19th century's Manchester, French farmers get more attention from the gov than other public services and enterprices, and even German coal-mines receive their subsidies.


Or is it just a different dynamic in the UK as in the rest of Europe?
Overall I do believe that at least there won't be such a radical system change in the UK in the near future. My explanation is that British identity is partly even based on it's politcal system, with a long tradition of two major parties. These parties might launch the one or other radical reform, but still I believe that general mistrust into the political system as such is not that high as in other European nations. It's system is one of the oldest in Europe and has resisted plenty of crisis in world history. That makes it even stronger! Similiar to the US by the way. It might sound ironic, but western Germany is politically very stable, too, as most people there identify with their "new mission" after the Third Reich to withstand extreme authorities (left and right) and fight intolerance. In contrast to all other northern countries, western Germany hasn't given any support so far to radical right-wing parties. It is different in eastern Germany, but people there are highly outnumbered by the west.
 
No I am defending the UK government, too. They did a good job so far. What I meant was that IF you critizise it, it could come from any political opposition, left and right. Critics aren't swaying into a specific direction.

What are the right-wing critics saying? That the police haven't been violent enough against the protesters? I suppose I could understand such a criticism, although I would disagree with it. I've heard more from the left so far.

Usually I tend not to be extreme in thoughts either. But circumstances can change and what is unheard of today can become reality tomorrow. So far political thoughts are only slowly changing in Europe, and might be more extreme of course only in Greece right now. Luckily Greece was, well at least partly, backed up by the EU so far. But if the financial crisis continues, more states turn bankrupt, inflation reaches new peaks and all governments have to cut everywhere, there won't be anyone who is willing to help anyone else anymore. Subsequently more people will seek for quick and radical reforms.

Well said, I agree. But I'd be willing to bet you that the next President of France will be a Socialist, not FN. I'd take 20-1 odds on that bet, in fact.

Overall I do believe that at least there won't be such a radical system change in the UK in the near future. My explanation is that British identity is partly even based on it's politcal system, with a long tradition of two major parties. These parties might launch the one or other radical reform, but still I believe that general mistrust into the political system as such is not that high as in other European nations. It's system is one of the oldest in Europe and has resisted plenty of crisis in world history. That makes it even stronger! Similiar to the US by the way.

It's odd that these sorts of riots are happening right now in England if the mistrust into the political system isn't so high. I suppose the rioters don't represent a significant voting constituency that would actually affect that sort of thing.

I think that the reason the UK has two major parties is that they're stuck with them due to their electoral system. Sure, a two-party system can create less extremism within governments, but it also creates a stagnation of new ideas and makes people outside of the two parties feel totally unrepresented. In the US, we're suffering from the drawback of the two-party system... we replace a bad government with another bad government because that's our only alternative. I would be willing to go to PR just to allow 3rd party voices in the government (although I'm probably biased, seeing that I frequently vote 3rd party). At least in the UK, they got a coalition, which I think is better than the Conservatives alone. The Lib Dems have helped the direction of the coalition.

If the UK got PR right now, I don't think they'd elect BNP or even UKIP significantly. The Greens are the most likely to grow IMHO (and Labour would probably make the same number of gains they're likely under the current system). The UK would probably get along about how they have been. So I think it's more of an attitude amongst the voters rather than the political system itself.

How close is Germany to the brink you're theorizing will happen? Do you actually see the NPD having any sway? I know the FDP is unpopular now, but that doesn't seem relevant. What else has been changing? Perhaps there is a different dynamic in Germany as well due to history, in their case, being deeply frightened of anything having to do with nationalism.
 
Whoops next post came a little too quick by me. I'll answer your post tomorrow as it is getting late here.
 
The late riots in Greece

1rst by police violnce killing a 16 old boy for demonstration of power
2nd the memorandum2 case

proved that there is no Leftish or rightists in such cases,

it is a mass protest to warn people about what is coming,

the indignants Greeks as also the case of Alexis proved that young people are not eating the old political fairy tail of left and rights,

such revolts soon will raise all over Europe,
even in cases you do not expect,

Cold war is over, a new 'war' is now, that has to do with basical demands and obligations of a state,

the problem the exact time is the violence of Police against protesters,
due to the high salaries they get, or the militaristic form of police,

but soon stupidity get off our lives, the major problem is that whole west world is ruled by kids, who play with water-pistols and smile in cameras,

the old Europe of 70-80 is gonna die,
we have 2 solutions,
either we go back to 1950's modeling system
either we go to privatizations Big companies and corporations, and a sure Krach (economical kaboom of stocks)
the problem is the kids that rule us used the saved money of states of 50's to create monster corporations,

the National idea is dead, but the intenational idea is not yet borned,
so masses are trebling among nation or state,
productivity or job,
to sell or to buy consious, souls for sell

you can not isolate movements in Europe any more,
all these are not isolated like budapest of 54 or Paris may '68
a riot in ireland affaicts Lihuania also, so by thinking that is an england only or a massive stage of protests and riots is more close to reality,

in Greece many people lost their hearing or gained breathing problems, even broken hands and legs by police force last 10 years, so we try other solutions, cause peacefull riots like the last of June proved to be provoked by police and many fires were put by police,

Artificial chaos is a good weapon to leaders to send people back home and stop protest,
 
Riots are not anything new to England. English history is littered with civil strife stretching back hundreds of years but just since WWII, 1958, 1974, 1977, 1981, 1985(twice), 1990, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2009, 2010 and 2011(twice) have all seen civil unrest in the form of rioting. Although, the current crisis breaks with tradition in that there is no clear political objective or grievance on the part of rioters. Except for Thursday's original riot in Tottenham, which was in protest against the Police killing of a 29yr old father of four children, the subsequent violence appears to be mainly children self-indulging in one giant vandalism and looting rampage.

The problem isn't purely political nor economic but also involves the breakdown of the family, community, the wider social structure and the education system within Britain. The last poll placed the youth of Britain as the worst behaved in Europe.

Plus, unlike most of Europe, Britain, or England in particular, is still very much a class based society with a lower or poorer class that is disaffected from the rest of the population. The reasons there are manifold but, I think, are mostly due to a (mainly) two party political and non-compulsory voting system which has allowed a whole section of it's society to be not fully represented in parliament.
 
Plus, unlike most of Europe, Britain, or England in particular, is still very much a class based society with a lower or poorer class that is disaffected from the rest of the population. The reasons there are manifold but, I think, are mostly due to a (mainly) two party political and non-compulsory voting system which has allowed a whole section of it's society to be not fully represented in parliament.

It's interesting that the two-party system keeps coming up in this discussion! I don't think I'd go so far as to hope for an institution of compulsory voting, due to issues with under-informed votes and my general reluctance to make just about anything compulsory unless it absolutely must be. But PR would likely give minority communities within districts a voice in parliament, even if that voice is not part of the coalition. That may help stem this sort of resentment to a degree, although I really doubt it would solve the problem entirely. At least it would do more good than demanding an adjustment of fiscal policy whenever a riot happens (IMHO).
 
I think you are right in the point that even though violation by rioters is condemned by all parts, especially in Europe there has always been some more silence about violence done by those in favor of leftist ideas or anarchists, opposed to violence done by rightists.

I suppose we can agree upon the fact, and most people here also do, that these riots had no direct political motivation, but were launched out of frustration by the underprivileged of society. These riots remind me very much of those stunning similiar riots which happened in France in 2005. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_civil_unrest_in_France
You may make the government responsible for the circumstances in society, and for it's reaction during the riots. But critics will come from all directions, especially from the extreme right and from the extreme left. So in the end it will be a draw.

I hope you are right about that on the whole because in the very conservative right state of Australia I live in most people are blaming ethnic minorities and multiculturalism :annoyed: Australian's really have no idea about the rest of the world :ashamed2:
 
I think you are right in the point that even though violation by rioters is condemned by all parts, especially in Europe there has always been some more silence about violence done by those in favor of leftist ideas or anarchists, opposed to violence done by rightists.
It has nothing to do with politics. In those areas people have no future. It's the British media that tries to make a political thing of it by calling the looters "anarchists". Typical British way if looking away from their own failures.

I suppose we can agree upon the fact, and most people here also do, that these riots had no direct political motivation, but were launched out of frustration by the underprivileged of society. These riots remind me very much of those stunning similiar riots which happened in France in 2005. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_civil_unrest_in_France
You may make the government responsible for the circumstances in society, and for it's reaction during the riots. But critics will come from all directions, especially from the extreme right and from the extreme left. So in the end it will be a draw.
No, this time the situation is totally different. In France it were North Africans in a racial war against the police, In Britain
it's the people who live in the lowest class that attack the police. Most of them are white!

What concerns me much more at the moment is that extreme thoughts are gaining widely ground in Europe. Mistrust into governments, state-forms as democracy, economic systems, as well as irrational search of scape goats is increasing very much. And I can tell from my very own relatives and people I have to do with, that those who once were open to other cultures (also like foreigners) and supported the system we are living in, got me shocked by statements with which I didn't notice my old people again. When the costs of estates and living costs are rising, while at the same time health care services and pensions are cut down, world views don't seem to be the same anymore.

I am pretty sure with with the financial crisis which is still just at it's beginning, we will have a vast change in the European landscape next year. It will start in France with the presidential elections. Already in March 2011 the Front National with Marine Le Pen was ahead of Sarkozy (23% to 21%), and I'm PRETTY SURE they will win the election next year. Leaving the Euro and EU and massive expulsion of Muslims were just some of the points they promoted. And they will be backed up by the "True Finns" in Finland and the "FPÖ" in Austria, who will also win next year. Add other friends like Lega Nord, Geert Wilders etc. to it.

I am really worried!

Yes, this is what you get, if the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer.
The upper class in Europe is Americanizing fast, and in doing so creating unrest among the rest of the nations.

I read this morning a typical conversation...

Question: "Why do these rioters attack our society?"
Answer: "Because they aren't part of our society!"

One other thing:

Take a look at Harrods in London nowadays.
It seems to be invaded by extremely wealthy people from Qatar.
I guess that's also stirring the soup.

7425main.jpg
 
What are the right-wing critics saying? That the police haven't been violent enough against the protesters? I suppose I could understand such a criticism, although I would disagree with it. I've heard more from the left so far.

Exactly! I wouldn't agree with it either, but it is what they would come up with. Just as Gusar pointed out, a lot of these rioters are children of immigrants. Instead of looking at the societal problems, many people would rather see the reason in immigrants as such, or to exagerate, "foreign blood". Also too weak action against all those "misfits" of society could provide a reason. What happened in France after the riots of 2005? Sarkozy also followed a stricter line against foreigners, Gypsies etc. in order to satisfy potential voters of the FN.

Another similiar riot I remember was the one of Los Angeles in 1992. The scheme was the same: violence after a racial crime done by the police, and riots broke out in order to release all this piled up frustration of societal reality. It both fed left and right extremists (black-haters), and after some while politics returned to business as usual. I'm sure it will be pretty much the same in Britain.


Well said, I agree. But I'd be willing to bet you that the next President of France will be a Socialist, not FN. I'd take 20-1 odds on that bet, in fact.
The FN doesn't take position to a specific type of economy, as long as it serves the (true-blooded-gaulish) French people only. Depending on current economic status and the needs of it's people, the FN can change it's position any time. And that is also what they will do in 2012, in order to become more popular and gain more votes: they will become socialists! I don't want to compare those two parties too deep, but that's exactly what the NSDAP (National Socialist Pary) did, too!


It's odd that these sorts of riots are happening right now in England if the mistrust into the political system isn't so high. I suppose the rioters don't represent a significant voting constituency that would actually affect that sort of thing.

I think that the reason the UK has two major parties is that they're stuck with them due to their electoral system. Sure, a two-party system can create less extremism within governments, but it also creates a stagnation of new ideas and makes people outside of the two parties feel totally unrepresented. In the US, we're suffering from the drawback of the two-party system... we replace a bad government with another bad government because that's our only alternative. I would be willing to go to PR just to allow 3rd party voices in the government (although I'm probably biased, seeing that I frequently vote 3rd party). At least in the UK, they got a coalition, which I think is better than the Conservatives alone. The Lib Dems have helped the direction of the coalition.

If the UK got PR right now, I don't think they'd elect BNP or even UKIP significantly. The Greens are the most likely to grow IMHO (and Labour would probably make the same number of gains they're likely under the current system). The UK would probably get along about how they have been. So I think it's more of an attitude amongst the voters rather than the political system itself.
Again, I don't think that these riots will have too much impact on following politics. The points have already been said:
1. Left and right wing voters will end up in a draw.
2. the rioters themselves don't vote at elections
3. the middle-class average person, I suppose, is too level-headed to get influenced by some teenage statements

About the two-party system:
I'm not really sure about it, but sometimes I believe it doesn't make a great difference between a two-party system and a multiple-party system. Why? Take Germany for instance, there are three major parties which are considered left:
The SPD as the traditional worker's party, heading towards employees in general, promoting a social market economy under democratic conditions.
Die Linke, with higher radical socialist reforms, advocating the unemployed and those mourning about the loss of the former GDR.
And the Greens, whose voters usually are recruted from a higher education and left background. It is similiar to SPD, but with higher concerns about ecological and economical sustainability and ethic principles in general.

In a two party-system, all those in favor of one of those parties will with a higher probability go to the one and only major left party, which would be Democrats in the US or Labour in the UK for example. This means, within those parties there is a much higher variety of politicians and voters than in multiple-party states. As multiple-party systems also form coalitions, I think that the quarrels between those parties during elections and legislation periods are very similiar to those quarrels WITHIN the parties of the US or UK.


How close is Germany to the brink you're theorizing will happen? Do you actually see the NPD having any sway? I know the FDP is unpopular now, but that doesn't seem relevant. What else has been changing? Perhaps there is a different dynamic in Germany as well due to history, in their case, being deeply frightened of anything having to do with nationalism.
If the economy goes further down and inflation rises the next years, I believe that Die Linke will become popular as ever in eastern Germany, probably taking the majority of east German states and seats in parliament. The NPD will also become popular as ever, probably entering every east German state. Though they will not make the majority there and wouldn't get a governmental position.
In western Germany I believe that the Greens will rise even more, presumably overtaking SPD and CDU in more than one state (which is what they already did this year in Baden-Würtemberg). Even if it's just speculation, but I believe the next chancellor to be Green is not that unrealisitc anymore. The FDP will probably not enter any state anymore and become history...
 
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@Mzungu

I think it's not likely that these things will ever happen in Germany.
The politics are still much more socially oriented.

It's the "Rhineland" social and economic scenario against the "Anglo-American" scenario.
Rhineland still wins by far.

Don't put yourself down!
Germany has done a lot to build up a good living for all citizins.
Especially after the breakdown of the GDR.

BTW...
It isn't true that most of the rioters are children from immigrants!
Don't let yourselves be fooled by the media!
The British media are crooks!
 
@Mzungu

I think it's not likely that these things will ever happen in Germany.
The politics are still much more socially oriented.

That what will never happen? I didn't say that e.g. a right-wing party will take over politics, even though they might gain ground especially in economically disadvantaged regions. These are basically the same regions in which left-wing parties are also very popular, or even much more. So I am basically concerned about these specific regions, in which radical movements will rise. But as a whole I'm not that worried about Germany as I am about most other European countries in that respect.

It's the "Rhineland" social and economic scenario against the "Anglo-American" scenario.
Rhineland still wins by far.

What is the "Rhineland" scenario? Never heard of it. Do you mean Social Market economy opposed to the Anglo-American Free Market economy?

Don't put yourself down!
Germany has done a lot to build up a good living for all citizins.
Especially after the breakdown of the GDR.

Many people don't realize it. And in fact there are people in East Germany whose living conditions worsend since unification. These are the ones that would support radical changes in the economic system.

BTW...
It isn't true that most of the rioters are children from immigrants!
Don't let yourselves be fooled by the media!
The British media are crooks!

I didn't write "most", I wrote "a lot". And you are right, it is what media is presenting! But nevertheless, this presentation will only feed right extremists!
 
Well.. That's making some sense.

Britain is a nation that has huge problems because it is a class society, and of course it is easy to blame the shit on the foreigners, but the reality is that a lot of their own British population lives in areas with no future.
And than happens the following, the lowest whites in society are used to put the boots on the throat of the even more poor foreign beggars. Meanwhile the banking system, the trade and all other locusts are gathering more and more for their own.

Those locusts are now even busy to get gold from Dutch citizens.
They buy everything they can get!
They abuse the fact that for some reason Dutch shops only offer 10% of the real value of the gold of a ring or watch.

This stinks!
 
Exactly! I wouldn't agree with it either, but it is what they would come up with. Just as Gusar pointed out, a lot of these rioters are children of immigrants. Instead of looking at the societal problems, many people would rather see the reason in immigrants as such, or to exagerate, "foreign blood". Also too weak action against all those "misfits" of society could provide a reason. What happened in France after the riots of 2005? Sarkozy also followed a stricter line against foreigners, Gypsies etc. in order to satisfy potential voters of the FN.

I actually heard a commentary on a conservative American radio program recently that went a bit different: supposedly, Britain has become "such a welfare state" that now immigrants and poor communities "expect handouts" and when there is anything that threatens that, they riot. An interesting perspective, although probably a poor insight into what's actually going through the rioters' heads.

The FN doesn't take position to a specific type of economy, as long as it serves the (true-blooded-gaulish) French people only. Depending on current economic status and the needs of it's people, the FN can change it's position any time. And that is also what they will do in 2012, in order to become more popular and gain more votes: they will become socialists! I don't want to compare those two parties too deep, but that's exactly what the NSDAP (National Socialist Pary) did, too!

I meant that I think that a PS member is going to win, like Martine Aubry. But, yes, I agree, the FN's economic policy seems to morph. Geert Wilders in the Netherlands seems to be taking a similar tack, which makes him closer to the FN than he probably wants to admit, and farther away from the VVD which spawned him and which he is now in coalition with.

Again, I don't think that these riots will have too much impact on following politics. The points have already been said:
1. Left and right wing voters will end up in a draw.
2. the rioters themselves don't vote at elections
3. the middle-class average person, I suppose, is too level-headed to get influenced by some teenage statements

I hope you're right and not the linked article.

About the two-party system:
I'm not really sure about it, but sometimes I believe it doesn't make a great difference between a two-party system and a multiple-party system. Why? Take Germany for instance, there are three major parties which are considered left:
The SPD as the traditional worker's party, heading towards employees in general, promoting a social market economy under democratic conditions.
Die Linke, with higher radical socialist reforms, advocating the unemployed and those mourning about the loss of the former GDR.
And the Greens, whose voters usually are recruted from a higher education and left background. It is similiar to SPD, but with higher concerns about ecological and economical sustainability and ethic principles in general.

In a two party-system, all those in favor of one of those parties will with a higher probability go to the one and only major left party, which would be Democrats in the US or Labour in the UK for example. This means, within those parties there is a much higher variety of politicians and voters than in multiple-party states. As multiple-party systems also form coalitions, I think that the quarrels between those parties during elections and legislation periods are very similiar to those quarrels WITHIN the parties of the US or UK.

In a two-party system, the leftist and left-leaning parties would combine, I agree. But who ends up controlling the party? It's usually a particular faction. In the case of Germany, I can imagine SPD types becoming very dominant in such a party. How would Die Linke voters feel about that? Unrepresented, I fear.

If the economy goes further down and inflation rises the next years, I believe that Die Linke will become popular as ever in eastern Germany, probably taking the majority of east German states and seats in parliament. The NPD will also become popular as ever, probably entering every east German state. Though they will not make the majority there and wouldn't get a governmental position.
In western Germany I believe that the Greens will rise even more, presumably overtaking SPD and CDU in more than one state (which is what they already did this year in Baden-Würtemberg). Even if it's just speculation, but I believe the next chancellor to be Green is not that unrealisitc anymore. The FDP will probably not enter any state anymore and become history...

Yucky forecast IMHO. Extremes like Die Linke and the NPD gaining ground are rarely good things. I suppose the Greens gaining is good, at least I personally like them better than SPD type parties, and they aren't likely to institute anything extreme. But the FDP will be missed on the German right, as a more liberal voice on social and foreign policy. They wouldn't be the first right-liberal party to fade in Europe, either... see the Progressive Democrats in Ireland.

Right-liberal parties frequently fade in bad times... again why I'm surprised that there's now a right-liberal coalition in the UK.
 
It's interesting that the two-party system keeps coming up in this discussion! I don't think I'd go so far as to hope for an institution of compulsory voting, due to issues with under-informed votes and my general reluctance to make just about anything compulsory unless it absolutely must be. But PR would likely give minority communities within districts a voice in parliament, even if that voice is not part of the coalition. That may help stem this sort of resentment to a degree, although I really doubt it would solve the problem entirely. At least it would do more good than demanding an adjustment of fiscal policy whenever a riot happens (IMHO).

Coming from the US I'd be surprised if you were in favour of compulsory voting Sparkey! But in countries like Britain (I think the US is another) where a low percentage of the population vote, and those mainly from the higher income bracket or middle and upper classes as they'd say in the UK, I'm very much in favour. Compulsory voting not only ensures everyone a say but in addition it also forces the politicians to address those issues of interest accross the entire population and not just the section of society that do vote, as in the uncompulsory system.
 
I hope you are right about that on the whole because in the very conservative right state of Australia I live in most people are blaming ethnic minorities and multiculturalism :annoyed: Australian's really have no idea about the rest of the world :ashamed2:

That's true, and typical of the Australian attitude to most problems, blame the immigrants. Completely forgeting, of course, that everyone (except the indigenous population) in Australia is a migrant! But as Rupert Murdoch controls the majority of the media in Australia I don't suppose much could be expected, other than a conservative and xenophobic population.
 
I actually heard a commentary on a conservative American radio program recently that went a bit different: supposedly, Britain has become "such a welfare state" that now immigrants and poor communities "expect handouts" and when there is anything that threatens that, they riot. An interesting perspective, although probably a poor insight into what's actually going through the rioters' heads.

Yeah that is probably even a better argument the rightists will come up with. Actually that was even the argument I was thinking about but wasn't able to express. lol


I hope you're right and not the linked article.

As long as the tabloids present articles such as this, http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article3745609.ece
I don't believe most people would be willing to identify with the rioters. BTW if you read the article anyway, it still gets interesting to see from what broad spectrum the rioters were coming from and how much mass-dynamic was actually behind it, without original political and/or criminal intentions. It was more some incident of opportunity.


In a two-party system, the leftist and left-leaning parties would combine, I agree. But who ends up controlling the party? It's usually a particular faction. In the case of Germany, I can imagine SPD types becoming very dominant in such a party. How would Die Linke voters feel about that? Unrepresented, I fear.

At least in Germany the parties needs at least half of the votes in order to win the election and become active part of the government. But as usually one party alone would never reach more than half of the votes, they need to form coalitions with other parties. But with two or more ruling parties in the government, there are usually always some quarrels among them to find agreements. Which is in the end the equivalent to the quarrels within the parties of the US and the UK. And yes, the majority of a specific opinion wins.


Yucky forecast IMHO. Extremes like Die Linke and the NPD gaining ground are rarely good things. I suppose the Greens gaining is good, at least I personally like them better than SPD type parties, and they aren't likely to institute anything extreme. But the FDP will be missed on the German right, as a more liberal voice on social and foreign policy. They wouldn't be the first right-liberal party to fade in Europe, either... see the Progressive Democrats in Ireland.

Right-liberal parties frequently fade in bad times... again why I'm surprised that there's now a right-liberal coalition in the UK.

It is somewhat similiar to Germany! During the last elections CDU wasn't able to become the sole ruling party, but they didn't need many votes in order to get it. Votes of the FDP were just sufficient, and so FDP became governmental party even though they lost a lot of votes and are unpopular as ever. Due to the current financial crisis people won't associate anything positive with FDP either, that's why I think in the next elections they will be gone.

The Greens have good ideas IMO, even though I sometimes critizise their occasional short-sighted populist decisions. My personal favorite ever since would be a Green-liberal coalition. But this aint never gonna happen... :disappointed:
 
I actually heard a commentary on a conservative American radio program recently that went a bit different: supposedly, Britain has become "such a welfare state" that now immigrants and poor communities "expect handouts" and when there is anything that threatens that, they riot. An interesting perspective, although probably a poor insight into what's actually going through the rioters' heads.

Well, what you heard is utter crap!
As you say yourself..
An interesting perspective, although probably a poor insight into what's actually going through the rioters' heads.

It isn't true!
England is a country with very rude treatment of the poor. The rich don't care about that.
It's the rich that became wealthy because of the looting they did in the past, slavery, piracy, whatever.
England has a long history of oppression of other cultures and nations.

Now they get what they earn.

And btw, it isn't that long ago The British burnt the White House in Washington.
Most Americans already forgot about that, or don't even know!

Another point is..
The right wing extravaganza in Europe is a post-colonial problem.
In France the FN.. Colonials
In The Netherlands the PVV.. Wilders originates from a colonial family. (Indonesia)
In England.. Guess what?
 

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