Amazing... I wonder how that will fit when reconstructring the migrational history of P312 in general....
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In recent weeks I have tried to introduce this newly identified SNP a little more widely, by posting a few notes about it on a couple of threads here, about "Lack of G2a in Basque" and "L176.2: when and where did it originate." Now that I'm able to post links, I think I'll see if a dedicated thread about this SNP stirs any broader interest.
In one of my earlier posts, I linked a couple of discussion threads at DNA-Forums that have been very active. They are OK for members there, but I have just realized that the forum threads in English are not open-access. One has to sign in to read them. So on this thread I plan to link to some of the same material on the French forum, which may be seen by anybody.
Discovered via the 1000 Genomes project about five months ago, Z196 is one of the oldest and largest clades of R-P312. It encompasses two previously identified large subclades: L176.2 (and its descendants, SRY2627 and L165); and, in another line, the North-South cluster (described from its off-modal STR values by Ken Nordtvedt five years ago) -- under which may be found the previously known SNP rs1469371 (newly designated Z278) and, under that, the "Basque marker" M153. Z196* also includes SNP-tested people who do not fall into any of the above-named subclades, or clusters -- and whose highly disparate STR values are among the indicators of its age.
Because some of this information is not well known (and perhaps none is yet cited in any academic literature) I shall introduce the topic just as it was introduced to the genetic genealogy community in the spring of 2011. One of the open threads about it may be read in the following archived RootsWeb message thread. [If you follow the thread, ignore the secondary discussion of "RecLOH Questions" -- about seven messages out of twenty, that were somehow posted to this "Z196, the third group" thread.]
After SNP testing for Z196 became available at FTDNA in mid-May, a project was set up on DNA-Forums (by Vince Tilroe) to track the results. I have previously linked it; and as I said it's in one of the "protected" forums (in English), so you can only read it if you are signed in there. It has nearly 600 messages, by now. Many of them might easily be ignored, as they just have to do with data and tiny clues that were slowly trickling in. Anyway, it's by far the most comprehensive online discussion to date, and if interested one may view it here:
By way of verifying that the stated phylogeny is being taken seriously, here are links to the ISOGG tree, and to Thomas Krahn's "Draft" tree at FTDNA. Note that on the ISOGG one, you can scroll down to a collection of online articles and hot links, some of which are highly relevant, but are not about Z196 per se. (I don't believe anyone has yet written an article about it.) On Krahn's tree, hover your cursor over the colored star beside a SNP name, and you may read how recently that SNP has been placed on the tree (or moved to its present spot on the tree).
ISOGG tree, current: http://isogg.org/tree/ISOGG_HapgrpR.html
Thomas Krahn's draft tree: http://ytree.ftdna.com/index.php?name=Draft&parent=root
One of the most interesting visual depictions of the complexity of Z196 is Rich Rocca's diagram showing the new SNPs of P312, most of which aren't yet on the ISOGG tree nor on Thomas Krahn's Draft tree. (Those two only show SNPs that are being tested -- not all that have been discovered, via 1000 Genomes or WTY tests.) On this tree, the NS cluster would be around [the untested SNPs] Z274, Z294 -- in that line, anyway, probably just a little below Z196 and a lot above M153. An early version of it has been posted here recently; but at this point I shall link to a thread on the open, French language forum at DNA-Forums, on which Rocca's current diagram may be seen without logging on as a member:
In the previous message, below the Rocca diagram one may also find some of the variance statistics lately compiled by Mikewww (who posts here occasionally -- but on DNA-Forums quite often; and perhaps most usefully, also on the "R-P312 Project" list in Yahoo Groups).
One more forum link that I inadvertently omitted, and have added in edit: this is the main Z196 thread at World Families, on a list that is moderated by the administrator of the big "R-P312 and Subclades" Y-DNA project at FTDNA. The pace or volume of posting has been less intense than on a couple of other forums, but it began in early April, and has not gone dormant. A somewhat different mix of specialties and interests may be found by comparing the content on several such lists:
I believe these links will serve to introduce the subject, and some of the people who have been working on it. There is of course a broader discussion about the TMRCA dates for these clades, and it may be a little early yet to make very sweeping statements about that. Until the subsets of R-P312 can be dated a little more confidently -- and with a little more general agreement -- it's premature to link Z196 (or any of them) with ancient cultures known primarily from their ceramics and graves, ancient language families, early ports on the Baltic, and so on. But it's only a little premature.
Anyway, you won't see anything about it (yet) in the usual sources such as Jean Manco's "Peopling of Europe" site; Maciamo's map section here; the often-cited and much debated studies of Myres, Balaresque, Klyosov, Busby et al; or the books so far published by Bryan Sykes, Barry Cunliffe, and David W. Anthony. It's brand new stuff. One of these days, it will be important stuff; and when you finally read about Z196 in a journal, or see a map of its distribution or variance for the first time, you can say, "I knew that."
Won't that be fun?
Last edited by razyn; 24-09-11 at 13:49.
Amazing... I wonder how that will fit when reconstructring the migrational history of P312 in general....
Excelent tread , you have my suport , and reputation point
By the way, do you know if Z278 will be entering the ISOGG anytime soon?
I agree this is interesting. I will definitely keep track of it. :)
Thanks to all three of you for the positive responses. (But I hope the net has been cast a little wider, since we already were talking about this on two other threads.) At some point, I hope to see much more European participation in testing for Z196. And, of course, testing for the new Z series SNPs under Z196 -- for which there are not yet any tests offered. I suppose a possible exception is "Walk Through the Y" testing. But that is very expensive, and there is a waiting list (because the FTDNA lab has back orders to work through).
In my first post on this thread, I only hinted at the several competing methods and their tables for estimating the ages (Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor, or TMRCA) of the various R1b clades. Most of the studies have not taken Z196 into account, anyway; but they do consider clades such as U152 and L21 that are about the same age. Marko Heinila's table, which I believe is a work in progress and therefore updated quite recently, does actually include Z196. (But Z196 is pretty near the bottom of his list, not in the main part that contrasts intraclade and interclade estimates -- corresponding to theoretical minima and maxima, assuming one agrees with his theories.) The leading serious attempts at dating R1b clades were mentioned just this morning in a DNA-Forums post by MikeWWW, and Heinila's timetable is linked. This is part of what Mike said:
The broader context of Mike's post is a discussion of whether L21 has been in Ireland (or elsewhere in the British Isles) since the last glacial maximum, or the Great Flood; or (as most estimates based on variance appear broadly to agree) only a little more than 4,000 years. The same discussion might as well be applied to Z196, in Iberia and elsewhere, and that's why I have cross-posted it. Mike also mentions the Bell Beaker cultural complex; that gives me an excuse to link another informative, open thread on the French part of DNA-Forums. The French term for Bell Beakers is Campaniformes, and this thread about it was begun last December -- well before the discovery and naming of Z196. For our new SNP, specifically, the discussion begins on 7 May 2011; but perhaps the most provocative place to enter the Z196 debate that took place on the Campaniformes thread may be this post by Didier Vernade:One thing that I find interesting is that whether it is Anatole Klyosov, Vince Vizachero, Ken Nordtvedt, Marko Heinila, or Tim Janzen - R-L21 and its brothers like U152 and P312* as well as P312 itself all come out with TMRCA estimates in the 3500 to 5000 years before present. Perhaps it's just coincidental, but this overlays the Bell Beaker era.
Look at Marko Heinila's TMRCA's for other haplogroups, not just the R-L11 subclades of R-L21, U152, P312, U106.
And when I say "provocative," my hope would be for it to provoke some discussion here...
To add to the confusion, there was a brief period this summer during which a different SNP under L21 was being called Z278. It turned out to be a case of two names for the same SNP, and was dropped; so as far as I'm aware Z278 will only refer to this SNP that's under Z196, and above M153.
What is estimated age of R1b-Z196 ?
Ken Nordtvedt has just (over the past weekend, and today) posted some new explanation of, and methodology for testing, "nested variance." None of that work has been in the public eye for more than three days, and it hasn't yet been applied to anybody's model or variance tables. But I expect it soon will be. I hope that the people doing it see fit to include Z196, when they do.
Some of the other calculations of the age of R-P312, and of its oldest large subclades (of which Z196 is one), hover around 4900 years before present. I believe Klyosov is in that range, though I'm not looking at his work -- and I know it didn't cover Z196 as such. That would be at, or slightly above, the upper limit for the age of P312 in some of the other models. However, they all are ultimately based on multiplying an estimated number of generations by an estimated length of a generation. The precision of such estimates is less than that of dating by some other methods (such as dendrochronology, and the decay of isotopes). Still, it's not wild guesswork, and it is getting more sophisticated all the time.
Thanks for info
Note that this response took only a week; one may hope that the academic literature may follow, perhaps within a year or two. Progress is progress. Thanks, Jean.
Very interesting, I have passed along that information. Thanks for the tip.
Just by way of keeping this thread up to date, a recent conference paper by Dr. Steve Harding has more or less incidentally revealed the presence of M-153 in Norway, and SRY2627 (M167) in Denmark and Sweden. Since these SNPs are under Z196, on either of its main branches (M153 on the branch with the North-South cluster, and SRY2627 on the L176.2 branch) -- and both have previousky been linked with Iberia, and/or the Basques -- finding them Scandinavia is somewhat unexpected.
As usual, the more extended discussion is taking place on the non-public, English language side of DNA-Forums. Here is the link, for those who can sign in and read it:
A briefer thread on the same Harding paper is available to anyone via WorldFamilies. Note that it is his illustration #38 that reveals (if one carefully studies the pie charts -- using a magnifying glass helps) the Scandinavian presence of M153, SRY2627 -- and of course many other SNPs that are of great interest, but don't tell us anything anything specifically about Z196:
Last edited by razyn; 20-10-11 at 18:12.
My latest post there is refreshing much earlier discussions, in which I did not participate, of the "North/South Cluster," a subclade of Z196 (described, from its off-modal STR values, by Ken Nordtvedt nearly six years ago) that lies above M153, but is still invisible on either the ISOGG table or Thomas Krahn's Draft Tree -- in both cases, because its identifying SNP has not yet been verified through testing, e.g. at FTDNA. It can't be tested, until the test is offered; nevertheless, its location is known, and everybody with the N/S Cluster markers who has tested for Z196 is positive for it. Then they get the shorthand designation of Z196*, or in a few cases (with additional off-modal values), Z196**. The Z196 people who do not get an asterisk are those who have tested positive for something in its parallel L176.2 branch; or for the N/S Cluster's young subclade M153, an SNP that was discovered earlier, and is considered in FTDNA's Deep Clade Test.
It is distinctly possible that the N/S Cluster, as a whole, represents a larger, older, more northern or more eastern population than the lineage of its L176.2 brother. Probably, not all of those things -- but any of them would be possible. There are also two divisions within the N/S Cluster that are occasionally mentioned, but rarely defined. For anyone interested in the modal values of N/S I versus N/S II, the Cullen Haplogroup Predictor is a handy place to compare them, either with each other or with a variety of nearby R1b haplotypes. On that template, scroll down to "R1b-N.S.1" and the group below it:
Here is one other recent Z196 development -- which hasn't been discussed any further since it was announced on DNA-Forums (11 Nov. 2011, by Rich Rocca):
Also, last month, the anonymous researcher found DF27. While this SNP will probably not make its way to the phylogenetic tree any time soon because of its volatility (it has some back mutations in some samples and is heterozygous in others), it is interesting because it seems to be the parent SNP of both Z196 and Z225/Z229. If nothing else, it reinforces the importance of Z196 in Iberia.
because R1b is scattered in a so wide manner in Europe that its distinct dowstream shoots could have had different histories in a first time and meat back one together in more recent times - I think to the Atlantic Bronze Age and the exchanges W>>E & E>>W, and even earlier why not? the Megalithic period and its influence on S-Scandinavia
Great thread, Razyn. Thanks for starting.
f40804____ zzzUnkName_______________ R-Z196/L176/SRY______________ zs-unassigned_______ ___ Czech Republic
f97920____ Zencker__________________ R-Z196*______________________ z1418-NS____________ EP96D___ Czech Republic, Bohemia, Waltersdorf
f163820___ Both_____________________ R-Z196*______________________ z1418-NS____________ NXP7D___ Hungary
f155312___ Palkó ___________________ R-Z196*______________________ z1418-NS____________ JUH7U___ Hungary
f189361___ Kedves___________________ R-Z196/L176**________________ z176-unassigned_____ DT2NU___ Hungary, Heves, Szentdomokos
f116134___ Schoenberg_______________ R-Z196/L176/SRY______________ zs49010_____________ QZQJ6___ Hungary, Szecseny (Jewish project)
f138253___ Bielawski________________ R-Z196/L176/SRY______________ zs45818_____________ 6DE2X___ Poland
f133936___ Wyrwas___________________ R-Z196*______________________ z1418-NS-B__________ ENMN2___ Poland, Greater Poland Voivodeship, , Krotoszyn Co. Kobierno, Dabrowa
f142712___ Nydecke__________________ R-Z196*______________________ z48714-B____________ 7V3XA___ Poland, Lesser Poland Voivodeship, Wieliczka
f44479____ Richert__________________ R-Z196_______________________ z1418_______________ YZJSN___ Poland, Lublin Voivodeship, Stężyca
f60159____ Richert__________________ R-Z196_______________________ z1418_______________ FKYRD___ Poland, Pomeranian Voivodeship, Gdańsk, Oliwa
fN51984___ Zavorokhin_______________ R-Z196*______________________ z-unassigned________ YZDWK___ Russia
yX3C37____ Corbett__________________ R-Z196/L176/SRY______________ zs-unassigned_______ X3C37___ Ukraine
fN40082___ zzzUnkName_______________ R-Z196/L176**________________ z176-unassigned_____ ___ Ukraine
f10487____ Slugodzki________________ R-Z196/L176*_________________ z176-unassigned_____ SVAG5___ Ukraine, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Ottynia
f1401_____ Chernik__________________ R-Z196**_____________________ z1418-NS____________ YHP6P___ Ukraine, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Krasilov
You can see the whole presentation as well as this map (slide 38) here:
I think the patterns of R1b distribution are interesting. You can see that P312 has a presence, including L21 even east into Ostergotland. The ratio of M222 to L21 is lower than in Ireland so I think this indicates the impact of thralls being brought back by Vikings was not that large. U106 is heaviest in Denmark and to the eastern side. L21 is heavier to the west. P312* is fairly scattered. This is where Z196* would sit, hidden in the P312* numbers. SRY2627(M167) is also shown, and of course that is a Z196 subclade.
An interesting tidbit is that they found one (just one) M153 person, which is a subclade of Z196. Of course, M153 is supposed to be marker only found in Basques.
Here is an FTDNA SNP report page that includes a count of the number of Z196 tests completed (currently 263) and the number that were derived, i.e. Z196+ (currently 71):
Within that report, clicking on the blue numbers will take you to all sorts of genetic detail about the Z196 SNP. I assume that the number of tested samples will grow, and the count I have mentioned in this post only refers to 9 January 2012.
Anyone in the North/South Cluster of P312 (discussed in post #17 above) may be interested in the fact that FTDNA has just made available a SNP test for Z209. In the near future, I am told (by the FTDNA help desk), they expect to offer Z278 and Z214. All three of these SNPs are under Z196* and not under L176.2. It is to be hoped that testing them will facilitate the genetic and geographical sorting of which parts of Z196 did, or did not, go to Iberia -- resulting, among other effects, in the high rate of M153 observed among Basques. Z278 has previously been described as rs1469371, and is a couple of levels above M153, but probably below the principal defining SNP of the N/S Cluster. One of the advantages of establishing separate levels on the two main branches of Z196 is the fact that it will become possible to perform interclade variance calculations within Z196. These calculations lead to more precise dating of phylogenetic events, and can (especially when correlated with linguistic and archaeological data) influence our perceptions of the time and direction of major population movements in the very distant past.
Added 6 March: the FTDNA Advanced Orders menu now shows five of the new Z-series SNPs in this sequence (Z196+ but L176.2-) available for testing: Z209, Z220, Z216, Z278 (aka rs1469371), Z214.
Last edited by razyn; 06-03-12 at 18:08. Reason: New information
ANYONE telling you that they 'solved' TMRCA or have dated clade with certainty, etc.. is either tricking themselves, or tricking others. These are the same people claiming they can place the unrecorded Thracian language or Dacian language from two or three words or named passed down through time from a already mixed culture through other cultures.
It is simply not honestly possible now. end of story. anyone telling you they know secret facts because well.. they know it, is full of themselve and seeking to gain some audience for their reason.
If you want talk of Coon, and skull shape and whimsical opinion, then there is no reason for any dna or science you can simply make up what you like. If you claim science then you cannot create a fact that is not able to replicate under scientific condition by those who use the same formula and seek to prove or disprove it.Y-STR variance of Busby et al. (2011) dataset
I calculated the Y-STR variance of the Busby et al. (2011) dataset, for both the 10 and 15 Y-STR sets, as well as 4- and 5-most "linear" subsets thereof. Generation length of 31.5 years is used for the calendar year estimates.
My position that Y-STRs are effectively dead for age estimation stands, but I thought it'd be a good exercise to do this, as my personal adieu to more than a decade of Y-STRs: they didn't live up to their promise, but, indirectly, they helped create an entire field of "genetic prehistory" that will live on after their demise.
The greatest contribution of the Busby et al. (2011) paper is that it has cured the naivete of some who bought into the "more STRs = more accuracy" scheme. After this paper all Y-STR based estimates (including my own, above) are suspect.
People are impatient and do not want to wait so they make they own fact and announce this discovery and hope that acolytes will loudly shout down any cautions.