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Thread: Predict the next Dutch government

  1. #1
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    Predict the next Dutch government



    So the Dutch have set an election date, following the collapse of their government after Rutte could not come to an agreement with Wilders, who was propping it up.

    Polls have indicated that coalition formations could be as chaotic as last time. Here are a couple of possible outcomes based on recent polls:

    De Hond/peil.nl
    VVD 33
    SP 30
    PvdA 24
    PVV 19
    D66 15
    CDA 11
    CU 6
    GroenLinks 5
    SGP 3
    PvdD 3
    50+ 1

    or

    Synovate
    VVD 37
    PvdA 27
    SP 26
    PVV 18
    D66 13
    CDA 12
    GroenLinks 5
    CU 5
    PvdD 4
    SGP 2
    50+ 1

    Some apparent trends: Rutte remains personally popular, but the rest of his government isn't, so the VVD will probably remain the largest party, but his coalition partners, especially the CDA, are losing a lot of support. The left as a whole is gaining modest support, and the SP and the PvdA are locked in a battle to be the largest party on the left.

    So, another right-wing coalition (VVD+CDA, propped up by PVV and/or SGP) looks impossible this time, and we're left with two likely possibilities: a left-wing coalition (SP+PvdA+D66+GL+PvdD) or what the Dutch are calling "Paars" (VVD+PvdA+D66+maybe GL), which will be a sort of liberal but not particularly right or left coalition.

    I think that the outcome may be determined in part by the balance between SP and PvdA. The SP will have more trouble getting other left-leaning parties to agree to a coalition headed by them than the PvdA will. So, ironically, I'm guessing that the SP is more likely to be in government if they lose to PvdA. But the quality of Rutte's leadership, combined with the fact that a 3-party coalition is much more manageable than a 5-party coalition, makes me think that the Netherlands are heading for Rutte 2, in the form of Paars.

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    As wilders is adding a " le pen " doctrine to his own doctrine , then he will increase his majority

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    Quote Originally Posted by zanipolo View Post
    As wilders is adding a " le pen " doctrine to his own doctrine , then he will increase his majority
    I honestly don't think that drawing more parallels with Le Pen will increase Wilder's fortunes. I think he's more or less gained a stable constituency, but he won't hold the balance of power this time unless he gets much more support. He can thank the CDA's fortunes for that.

    It's also interesting that both the likely coalitions--Paars and the left-wing coalition--are apt to move the opposite direction of Wilders' immigration policies. That will be the case even if the PVV gains a few seats.

    Fun fact: It was a Paars coalition in the 90's that legalized euthanasia, allowed gay marriage, and legalized prostitution.

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by sparkey View Post
    I honestly don't think that drawing more parallels with Le Pen will increase Wilder's fortunes. I think he's more or less gained a stable constituency, but he won't hold the balance of power this time unless he gets much more support. He can thank the CDA's fortunes for that.

    It's also interesting that both the likely coalitions--Paars and the left-wing coalition--are apt to move the opposite direction of Wilders' immigration policies. That will be the case even if the PVV gains a few seats.

    Fun fact: It was a Paars coalition in the 90's that legalized euthanasia, allowed gay marriage, and legalized prostitution.
    Wilders is doomed to be sulking in the opposition benches, he won't be able to join any coalition for the next 10 years to come. In the near future I wouldn't be surprised if he left the Dutch politics for a job in a conservative think tank in the US. Maybe Fox news has a job for him as a commentator on Europe ;).

    Paars by the way means purple, this is what you seem to get if you mix the colours blue(VVD), red(PvdA) and green(D66).

    A purple kind of coalition is the most likely outcome indeed, but it depends also on how the CDA is doing during the elections they have yet to elect a "charismatic" new leader that can turn the tide... but since Balkenende I am not optimistic about the choice they will make. At the moment the "Kunduz-coalition"(VVD/CDA/D66/GL/CU) that agreed hastily on the austerity plan called "Wandelgangenakkoord"(hallway agreement...because rushing from room to room) - ironically something that could not be achieved with Wilders in the Cats-house negotiation during the seven weeks before - can't constitute a majority in the parliament(70-73; ...76 is needed).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Christiaan View Post
    Wilders is doomed to be sulking in the opposition benches, he won't be able to join any coalition for the next 10 years to come. In the near future I wouldn't be surprised if he left the Dutch politics for a job in a conservative think tank in the US. Maybe Fox news has a job for him as a commentator on Europe ;).
    I should become a profiler. Guess who yesterday was guest at Fox news http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oE0SMdKn71g

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    Quote Originally Posted by Christiaan View Post
    I should become a profiler. Guess who yesterday was guest at Fox news http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oE0SMdKn71g
    Good call! Although, I think just about everyone could see that coming.

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    Political sympathies aside what would be the best solution for the problems the Netherlands is facing?

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kardu View Post
    Political sympathies aside what would be the best solution for the problems the Netherlands is facing?
    As I understand it, the Netherlands is currently doing OK in terms of debt; even better than Germany, who are usually regarded as models of economic stability within the Eurozone. So, they have more leeway as far as austerity goes than some other countries.

    Rutte's proposal is a 16 billion Euro cut in spending and some tax increases to maintain its AAA credit. This proposal is what scared off Wilders, who joins some others in saying that this will hurt the economy too much.

    So, it boils down to the same sort of economic debate that happens all over the world whenever there is a recession. Should there be austerity during a recession, to maintain a good credit score, and allow market forces to return the economy? Or should there be greater deficit spending, to push the economy in the right direction?

    Personally, I almost always favor austerity, for a few reasons. The biggest is that it's a smaller risk, since international market forces are always cyclical, but there's no similar guarantee that deficit spending won't leave your country broke before you're able to lift it up. Also, pure Keynesianism tends to not work out as planned due to decreasing returns on investment, meaning that the harder you try to lift an economy with government spending alone, the less effect it has. And a more minor point, but I think an important one, is that good budgeting now tends to result in good future budgeting as well, so that dumb mistakes, like deficit spending during a boom, are less likely to happen in the future. Of course, I'm not arguing that austerity is a perfect solution without risks--it can prolong recessions, and those who say that it doesn't lead to higher temporary unemployment are lying. But the extent to which it prolongs recessions and increases unemployment are usually overstated... it will be proportional to the amount of spending relative to the entire GDP. For the Netherlands, that's a risk of a ~0.1% temporary increase in unemployment with Rutte's proposal. Compared to losing their credit score, running afoul of EU rules, and blowing unsustainable bubbles into the economy, and hence risking greater increases in unemployment in the future, that sounds fine to me.

    So, for the Netherlands, I tend to agree with Rutte's proposal, and I hope he can get something like it through. Admittedly, I've been a fan of his for awhile. He's probably my favorite PM in any country right now, next maybe to Andrus Ansip.

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    Thanks for your insights, Sparkey.
    To me it still remains unclear who will benefit the most from Rutte's plan: big finance/big business or the Dutch people...

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    Any chance of any coalition other than VVD+PvdA with these results?:

    VVD 41
    PvdA 38
    PVV 15
    SP 15
    CDA 13
    D66 12
    CU 5
    GL 4
    SGP 3
    PvdD 2
    50+ 2

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