Greying Wanderer
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K12b analysis based on the Genetiker runs: The usual disclaimers apply. I don’t know if these percentages are exact, but since I’m just comparing one sample to another sample using an analysis done by one person and using the same calculator it should give us some clues. I’ve removed anything below .5%. I think it’s good to keep in mind that the K12b “North Euro” component is mostly At/Baltic (which has some At/Med in it) plus some West Asian. The K12b “Caucasus” component is about 50% of the K7b West Asian, a chunk of Southern, plus a bit of Atlantic Baltic. For our purposes I think we could perhaps view it as mostly an eastern shifted EEF, yes?
AJV70
North Euro 76.4
At.Ned 20.6
Siberian 1.6
SSA 1.3
AJV52
North Euro 77.5
At Med 13.3
S.Asian 4.9
SSA 4.3
K01 Mesolithic HG part of Neolithic Farming Community at Koros
Otzi
- 70.14% North_European
- 27.50% Atlantic_Med
- 1.72% Sub_Saharan
- 0.40% Siberian
- 0.21% Southeast_Asian
North Euro 0
At/Med 57.7
Caucasus 22.3
S.W.Asian 7.6
NWAfrican 5.7
East African 24
S.E.Asian 2
S.Asian 1.5
E,Asian .7
Gok 4
North Euro 5.5
At/Med 81
Caucasus 4.2
S.W.Asian 8.6
E. African .7
K02 Early Neolithic Körös 5570–5710 BC.
C01-Baden Copper Age Culture 2700-2900
- 47.77% Atlantic_Med
- 27.46% Caucasus
- 13.95% Southwest_Asian
- 10.17% Northwest_African
- 0.60% East_Asian
- 0.05% Southeast_Asian
CO1 had more of the North European components and less of the Caucasus components than KO2. Like KO2, CO1 didn’t have any of the K12b Gedrosia component,
- 51.30% Atlantic_Med
- 22.93% Caucasus
- 9.69% Southwest_Asian
- 9.25% North_European
- 5.77% Northwest_African
- 0.78% Sub_Saharan
- 0.22% Siberian
- 0.05% Southeast_Asian
BR1 Early Bronze Age Mako Culture 1980-2190 BC (roughly 800 years later)
BR2 Late Bronze Kyjatice culture dated to 1110–1270 BC (800 years later)
- 48.74% North_European
- 34.34% Atlantic_Med
- 9.46% Caucasus
- 3.87% Southwest_Asian
- 1.12% Sub_Saharan
- 0.78% South_Asian
- 0.77% East_African
- 0.63% East_Asian
- 0.25% Southeast_Asian
- 41.61% North_European
- 35.99% Atlantic_Med
- 16.30% Caucasus
- 3.51% Southwest_Asian
- 1.34% Sub_Saharan
- 1.12% Gedrosia
- 0.10% Northwest_African
IR1- pre-Scythian Iron Age Mezőcsát culture of Hungary. 830–980 BC.
KO1, the Mesolithic HG who became part of the Early Neolithic at Koros, is within a few points of Ajv 70 and 52, so basically the same..
- 34.63% North_European
- 19.54% Atlantic_Med
- 16.66% Caucasus
- 15.22% Gedrosia
- 4.90% Siberian
- 3.30% East_Asian
- 2.38% Southwest_Asian
- 1.53% Northwest_African
- 1.08% Sub_Saharan
- 0.77% South_Asian
The KO2 sample, the southern most early Neolithic farmer, definitely seems to have a slightly more “eastern” tilt than Oetzi, and certainly more than the more admixed Gok 4.
Otzi’s Atlantic Med is roughly 58%, to KO2’s 48%, (and Gok 4’s 81%). Otzi has 22% Caucasus, KO27% and Gok 4 4%. Gok 4 has 9% S.W.Asian, Otzi 8%, but KO2 14%. Now it’s clear why most of these Neolithic farmers plot Southeast of Otzi.
This raises an interesting question. Otzi was a Copper Age person from around 3200 B.C.and Gok 4 a TRB farmer from 3100 BC. Is the change in her numbers because of more admixture?Dienekes had speculated that perhaps this group was related to Coon’s Long Barrow Group. I don’t know. (Of course, her admixture has nothing to do with the amount of EEF in modern people. That’s supposedly based on a comparison with Stuttgart (and Otzi?), and KO2 still seems pretty similar to Otzi, although definitely a little to the south and east of him.)
Then, in the 3,000 years from the early Neolithic Koros culture to the Copper Age Baden Culture the change was very minimal.
The only change, which appears to have taken place around the time of the Copper Age, is that there was an infusion of about 10% “North Euro”.
This increased the Atlantic Med by 3, lowered the “Caucasus” by 4, and lowered the Southwest Asian by 4. You also suddenly get a smidgeon of Siberian, .22, and surprisingly, .78 of SSA.
I think it may be that the first steppe people were starting to arrive, but, in this part of Europe, it was about 10% of the total genome.
What’s more amazing to me is that for about 3,000 years, the people in Hungary didn’t change. Whatever WHG they had was incorporated very early, perhaps further south near the Danube Gorges, and after that there seems not to have been any admixture with hunter-gatherers. Whether that’s because a sort of strict apartheid was enforced after the first admixture, as happened in parts of the Spanish New World, for example, or whether there just weren’t any left in the vicinity, I don’tknow.
(I don’t understand why it’s so hard to locate a good carbon dated map of Neolithic and forager settlements in central Europe in, say, the Neolithic, so this doesn’t all have to be guesswork. I’ve tried, and I can’t find it.)
The Early Bronze sees a much greater change. Eight hundred years later, the “North Euro” has jumped from 9% to 49%. Atlantic Med has dropped from 51% to 34%. Caucasus has dropped from 23 to 9%, S.W.Asian has dropped from 10 to 4%. Also, there are trace amounts of south, southeast and east Asian, a bit of East African, and SSA increases. I’m not quite sure what to make of this. Is Genetiker’s run just too noisy? These are all over .5%, however. Is it possible it’s telling us these Bronze Age invaders were both more “eastern” shifted and more “southern” shifted than the EEF and WHG of Europe? I don’t know.
Eight hundred years later in the late Bronze things have slightly shifted again. North Euro has dropped by 7 points. Atlantic Med has stayed about the same, but “Caucasus” has gone back up by about 7 points. Southwest Asian and SSA stay about the same, but the really “Asian” traces have disappeared. Interestingly, Gedrosia has shown up for the first time, but only to the tune of 1%.So, what happened? Did a fresh wave, somewhat different from the first, come in from the steppes, or was the change the product of admixture with the prior inhabitants, or a little of both?
(Just to isolate North Euro for a moment, it went from 0 in the Early Neolithic to 9% in the Copper Age, to 49% in the early Bronze, back down to 42% in the Late Bronze Age.)
The Iron Age steppe person is from another eight hundred years later. (He is a child with a G2a1 mtDna, so it seems these people from the steppe did bring some of their own women with them, as was also clear with some mtDna studies. )His North Euro drops from 42 to 35, Atlantic Med from 36 to 20. Caucasus and SW Asian and SSA stays the same, but Gedrosia jumps from 1% to 15%. Interestingly, Siberian now shows up at 5% and East Asian at 3%.
I’m not sure how to interpret this change, other than to point out the obvious that Gedrosia seems to appear mostly during the Iron Age. Also, there's definitely a more southern, but also again a more eastern shift in these people. Is it because we’ve sort of “captured” someone “fresher” off the steppe? Or, did the steppe population itself change slightly between the Bronze and the Iron Age, in that it became even more “eastern”? I do think that the EEF in the steppe populations was more eastern and southern shifted compared to central European EEF. Their hunter gatherer was also much more eastern shifted.
I don’t think we’ll know much more until we see the Samarra samples and the Yamnaya samples
I did this in a rush, so if anyone sees errors just let me know.
The only other thing I'll do is take a look at the modern populations to see if it's the same pattern as for the K7b analysis.
I think we're looking at a conveyor belt effect with waves coming off the steppes every n hundred years with each wave being replaced from further east.
So the first wave is the western most and very similar to the existing population in the west so the change isn't very noticeable while the later waves have more eastern components.
I also wonder if one of the waves took out Cucuteni and then incorporated them with the combined population moving west.
So something like
1st wave: WHG + ANE (similar to the existing western pop. but with more ANE)
2nd wave: ANE + conquered Cucuteni (with the resulting mix being less SW Asian shifted than the central euro farmers)
3rd wave: ANE + traces of siberia
4th wave: ANE + more Siberia
etc
(This model implies the 1st wave went around Cucuteni)
I think the Siberian component is making people think they came from that far away in one go whereas I think it was more of a glacier effect where dna from a long way away was gradually being sucked west by the vaccuum made as each wave moved off the steppe.
