Intelligence Trends in Ancient Rome

[Philjames100]

it would be erroneous than, the weren't Central European in terms of autosomal DNA.

They were modelled as ~50% Germany Bell Beaker, which is basically northern European, isn't it? On the chart above the 'C7: European' cluster (72%) has the highest 'haplotype sharing' with the 'Central and Northern Europe' group, whatever that means.

 

[Jovialis]

They were modelled as ~50% Germany Bell Beaker, which is basically northern European, isn't it? On the chart above the 'C7: European' cluster (72%) has the highest 'haplotype sharing' with the 'Central and Northern European' group, whatever that means.

They can also be modeled as mostly copper age Central Italians, which makes more sense imo, with about a quarter steppe emba.

 

[Jovialis]

North Italian Bell Beakers also fall in the same range.

There's little doubt Italics came from North of the Alps though.

 

[Philjames100]

They can also be modeled as mostly copper age Central Italians, which makes more sense imo, with about a quarter steppe emba.

I don't think that fits with the other evidence, e.g. autosomal affinity, Y-DNA haplogroup and also archaological evidence. I don't think there's any evidence from either DNA or archaeology of a direct migration of unadmixed Yamnaya people to Italy.

 

[Philjames100]

The source seems to be instead from Corded Ware --> Bell Beaker

 

[Jovialis]

Proto-Villanovan R1 is a single sample, but I find this model to be interesting

 

[Jovialis]

The source seems to be instead from Corded Ware --> Bell Beaker

Specifically Unetice culture, to Tumulus, to Urnfield to Proto-Villanovan, which has a broad cultural and historical connection to Latins. nevertheless, the Latins can be modeled as about 40% Unetice, with the rest from a local central Italian copper age population it seems.

 

[Philjames100]

Specifically Unetice culture, to Tumulus, to Urnfield to Proto-Villanovan, which has a broad cultural and historical connection to Latins. nevertheless, the Latins can be modeled as about 40% Unetice, with the rest from a local central Italian copper age population it seems.

Ok but by the Late Bronze Age Urnfield period the Copper Age population had already been transformed by earlier migrations so it wouldn't have been a case of Urnfield or Proto-Villanovans mixing with Copper Age Italians.

 

[Philjames100]

Proto-Villanovan R1 is a single sample, but I find this model to be interesting

i.e:

Ancient genomes reveal structural shifts after the arrival of Steppe-related ancestry in the Italian Peninsula (Saupe et al. 2021)

“Here, genome-wide data for 22 individuals from burials in Northeastern and Central Italy dated between 3200 and 1500 BCE provide the first genomic characterization of Bronze Age individuals from the central Italian Peninsula … Our study confirms a diversity of ancestry components during the Chalcolithic and the arrival of Steppe-related ancestry in the central Italian Peninsula as early as 1600 BCE, with this ancestry component increasing through time. (…)

all the Bronze Age groups from North and Central Italy presented here support a scenario in which Chalcolithic-like individuals received a contribution of Steppe-related ancestry, possibly through Late Neolithic/Chalcolithic groups from the north, such as Germany Bell Beaker (…)

Consistent with the previously reported co-spread of Steppe-related ancestry and Y-chromosome haplogroup R1, we observed that three out of the four Italian Bronze Age males for which a Ychr haplogroup could be determined belong to haplogroup R1 and two of those were of the R1b lineage. This haplogroup does not appear in the Chalcolithic samples. The two Italian R1b lineages belong to the L11 subset of R1b, which is common in modern Western Europe and in ancient male Bell-Beaker burials (…)

Our qpAdm results suggest that the Steppe-related ancestry component could have arrived through Late Neolithic/Bell Beaker groups from Central Europe … Together with the autosomal affinity of North and Central Italian Bronze Age groups with Late Neolithic Germany, the Ychr data point to a possibly Northern-, trans-alpine-, and potentially Bell-Beaker-associated source of the Italian Steppe-related ancestry.”

 

[Jovialis]

I recall the study, however, this doesn't seem to support the claim from the intelligence study that the Iron Age Latins were 72% central European. Implying 72% autosomal ancestry; but rather 72% of the samples were part of the haplotype sharing group.

 

[Jovialis]

Looking at the qpAdm supplement from the paper, it is feasble to model Central_Italian_IA (Latins/Etruscans) as 19% German_Bell_Beaker, 81% Broion_CA.

However, the model with 54% German_Bell_Beaker/45% Italian_N fails to produce a viable p-value.

0.05-1.0 is the range that is considered for statistical robustness.

 

[Jovialis]

Interesting their model for Broion with steppe/Italian_ChL is consistent with what I found among C7 Iron Age Italians:

 

[Philjames100]

Looking at the qpAdm supplement from the paper, it is feasble to model Central_Italian_IA (Latins/Etruscans) as 19% German_Bell_Beaker, 81% Broion_CA.

However, the model with 54% German_Bell_Beaker/45% Italian_N fails to produce a viable p-value.

0.05-1.0 is the range that is considered for statistical robustness.

I can't judge which model is more accurate, I just read what the papers say. According to Antonio et al. (2019): "we modelled the genetic shift by an introduction of ~30 to 40% ancestry from Bronze and Iron Age nomadic populations from the Pontic-Caspian Steppe", Posth et al. (2021): "This analysis demonstrated around 25% ancestry from such a distal steppe-related source, which reached around 50% when comparative populations were reduced to those more proximate in time and space than the Yamnaya, e.g., central European Bell Beakers. ... Two C.taly_Etruscan.Ceu individuals are characterized by a higher proportion of Yamnaya-related ancestry (40%)" [equivalent to ~80% Germany Bell Beaker]

The three papers have ~71.5-75% R1b-M269 in the Bronze and Iron Age samples:

Posth et al. (2021): "the newly reported central Italian individuals from 800 to 1 BCE show ~75% frequency of the Y-chromosome haplogroup R1b, mostly represented by the R1b-P312 polymorphism and its derived R1b-L2, that diffused across Europe alongside steppe-related ancestry in association with the Bell Beaker complex."

Antonio et al (2019): "Five of the seven male individuals in this time period belong to the R-M269 (R1b1a2) group, which is not observed in the nine earlier male samples.”

Saupe et al. (2021): "three out of the four Italian Bronze Age males for which a Ychr haplogroup could be determined belong to haplogroup R1 and two of those were of the R1b lineage. This haplogroup does not appear in the Chalcolithic samples. The two Italian R1b lineages belong to the L11 subset of R1b, which is common in modern Western Europe and in ancient male Bell-Beaker burials." [assuming the R1 sample is actually R1b-M269]

 

[Jovialis]

It's impossible to tell which is the best model without ancIBD. Because ranking by p value isn't recommended. As long as it is between .05 to 1 it is considered plausible.