PDA

View Full Version : What should the EU become politically ?



P. Courvel
25-07-07, 02:27
At present it is reasonable to call the EU a confederation. In other words, it is an association of sovereign states created by treaty with a common defense, foreign affairs and foreign trade policy and a common currency. Federalists want the EU to become a federal country, like the USA. Personally I am quite happy with the current situation. I am worried that a more centralised government could become too totalitarian, power-hungry and manipulative like the US government.

Cambrius (The Red)
21-04-10, 22:39
At present it is reasonable to call the EU a confederation. In other words, it is an association of sovereign states created by treaty with a common defense, foreign affairs and foreign trade policy and a common currency. Federalists want the EU to become a federal country, like the USA. Personally I am quite happy with the current situation. I am worried that a more centralised government could become too totalitarian, power-hungry and manipulative like the US government.

I pretty much agree. However, for the sake of efficiency, reform and overall progress, some political centralization is required. A light version of federalism, if you will.

Michael Folkesson
26-04-10, 18:44
Cambria Red

By definition it would still be a confederation. What areas do you think should be under common policy and Union institutions? Economy, defense, direct taxation? Should criminal law be legislated in the Union?

Sprinkles
26-04-10, 19:07
The EU is going to collapse within 2 years.

Michael Folkesson
26-04-10, 20:03
Well, aren't you a ray of sunshine. For whatever reason would you think that? The cooperation has survived for over 50 years. Is it because Croatia is joining or that the 2012 is the end of the world? Or are you the type of person who puts his head through random open windows and scream "You are all gonna die!"?

So why will the EU collapse within two years? It might happen. I am just curious why.

LeBrok
27-04-10, 01:22
You got it right Mike, lol, exactly what I thought reading Sprinkles. He's highly spiritual person, and his thinking is always convoluted around religious dogmas and philosophies.

Cambrius (The Red)
27-04-10, 01:39
Cambria Red

By definition it would still be a confederation. What areas do you think should be under common policy and Union institutions? Economy, defense, direct taxation? Should criminal law be legislated in the Union?

Economy and defense for certain.

Cambrius (The Red)
27-04-10, 01:40
The EU is going to collapse within 2 years.

Why do you say that?

Sprinkles
27-04-10, 01:41
Well, aren't you a ray of sunshine. For whatever reason would you think that? The cooperation has survived for over 50 years. Is it because Croatia is joining or that the 2012 is the end of the world? Or are you the type of person who puts his head through random open windows and scream "You are all gonna die!"?

So why will the EU collapse within two years? It might happen. I am just curious why.
Germans are yelling at Greeks to control debt. Portugal, Italy, Spain are in deep shit. The Euro is going to collapse in the latter part of this year. This is an experiment gone awry.

You really don't understand Balkan people if you believe that they they will sit idle in your desire to control us and eastern Europe. Look at a map of R1b. We're a bit different.

^ lynx ^
27-04-10, 01:50
LOL. Spain is no near where Greece is. Our public debt is around 50% of our GDP and Greece's public debt is over 100% of their GDP.

You are just another victim of the speculator's propaganda. :rolleyes2:

http://www.rense.com/general90/euro.htm
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/breaking-news/us-justice-department-probing-euro-attacks-report/story-e6freonx-1225836926846

Read that and learn something, please.

Greetings.

Sprinkles
27-04-10, 01:52
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greek-portuguese-spanish-cds-spreads-hit-records-2010-04-26

Greek, Portuguese, Spanish CDS spreads hit records

The Portuguese CDS spread rose to 305 basis points from around 279 basis points on Friday. The Spanish CDS spread jumped to 186 basis points from 174 basis points, CMA said.

^ lynx ^
27-04-10, 01:58
Read the links above. :good_job:

^ lynx ^
27-04-10, 02:00
IMF: Spain, Portugal Not in Same Boat as Greece

http://laht.com/picfiles/IMF.jpg

WASHINGTON – The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that Spain’s fiscal challenges are not as severe as those faced by Greece, reinforcing the message that Madrid has been delivering to the world’s financial markets.

In its first official comment on the matter, the IMF told investors that Spain and Portugal should not be placed in the same boat as debt-laden Greece.

“Regarding Portugal and Spain, we do see differences between their circumstances and those of other parts of the euro area,” IMF spokesman David Hawley said, dismissing the idea that Greece’s financial woes could spread beyond its borders.

Hawley said Spain and Portugal have robust economic statistics and institutions with a solid track record and credibility, adding that the two Iberian nations also had strong fiscal starting positions prior to the global recession.

That assessment echoed the message Spanish Economy Secretary Jose Manuel Campa has brought to Paris and London and plans to reiterate at closed-door meetings with investors in New York and Boston.

Campa said in an interview with Efe-DowJones that when investors see that see the diagnosis of the situation has been correct and that the measures that the Spanish government has taken are adequate, “it will generate a lot of reassurance.”

The Greek crisis, which has rattled financial markets in Spain and Portugal, began when that country’s new government acknowledged in December that its budget deficit at the close of 2009 would be 12.7 percent of gross domestic product, significantly higher than the range of between 6 percent and 8 percent that had been forecast by the previous administration.

Prime Minister George Papandreou pledged to implement radical austerity measures, but that did not prevent rating agencies from downgrading Greece’s government bonds.

Greece’s difficulties not only caused risk premiums on its own sovereign debt to spike but also those of other countries in the euro zone, particularly Portugal and Spain.

But Spain’s investment waters were calmer Thursday after the government sold a 5-billion-euro ($6.8-billion) 15-year bond the day before in an auction that was oversubscribed, proving – experts said – the government’s ability to raise financing.

http://laht.com/spain/Euros1.jpg

The country paid a risk premium of 85 basis points in the bond issue over the benchmark swap rate.

By comparison, the risk premium demanded by holders of 10-year Greek bonds over Germany’s 10-year benchmark bonds rose Thursday to 328 basis points.

Hawley stressed Thursday that Greece’s budget deficit woes date back to before the global recession, while Spain had a surplus equal to 2 percent of GDP at the start of the financial downturn.

Even so, Spain, whose economy was battered by the collapse of the country’s once buoyant construction sector, has seen its public finances deteriorate rapidly. The nation’s budget deficit rose to 11.4 percent of GDP in 2009 and unemployment has skyrocketed to 19 percent.

The IMF is forecasting that Spain will be the world’s only developed economy to remain in recession this year, contracting by 0.6 percent. EFEhttp://laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=352580&CategoryId=12396

Cambrius (The Red)
27-04-10, 02:17
Germans are yelling at Greeks to control debt. Portugal, Italy, Spain are in deep shit. The Euro is going to collapse in the latter part of this year. This is an experiment gone awry.
You really don't understand Balkan people if you believe that they they will sit idle in your desire to control us and eastern Europe. Look at a map of R1b. We're a bit different.

Ostensibly, you have not read the very recent analyses conducted by The Economist and the Wall Street Journal as regards Portugal. Both publications clearly state that Portugal is not at all like Greece (not even close) and, historically, it has managed its finances judiciously, particularly in times of difficulty. Spain also cannot be compared to Greece. The two countries are in different universes. Italy currently has a weak economy but a manageable debt load. I notice you didn't mention Ireland which, technically, is in worse shape than Spain, Portugal or Italy

Who in Western Europe want's to control Balkan people? Kindly explain.

Cambrius (The Red)
27-04-10, 02:26
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greek-portuguese-spanish-cds-spreads-hit-records-2010-04-26
Greek, Portuguese, Spanish CDS spreads hit records

Cut the nonsense, these spreads will come down very quickly once the aid package dust settles on Greece. Trust me, Greece will be the only Eurozone country to go through terrible long term economic suffering. The country's corrupt politicians have dug a deep grave for the Greek people. A grave they will have a horrible time emerging from.

Wilhelm
27-04-10, 02:44
Actually Spain is the second country in the EU in economical aid for Greece. And why you don't talk about IRELAND , which is in a worst situation than Portugal, Spain or Italy...
Spain has 100 basic points while Ireland has 188 points and Greece 674 (not in the same boat):

http://www.abc.es/20100427/economia-economia/riesgo-espana-bate-maximos-20100427.html

Michael Folkesson
27-04-10, 09:06
I think that EU will continue to be a confederation in it's character, and that a fully federal state is far into the future. I believe that the authority of economic politics will be exercised and supervised from Brussels, but I don't think that we will have a common military, but more likely harmonized and cooperating military maybe within the WEU.

If we were to grow into the direction of a common military I think it might become a shared or shared defense of regional blocs of Europe, and there might go so far as a EU air force, and shared navy.

I would support the formation of one common military. It all depends on the member nations. The level of nationalism has risen and countries like the UK is a problem in this aspect. As giving up the control of defense depends on the willingness to give up the ultimate guard of national sovereignty, I think this is unlikely to happen in foreseeable future. It would also depend on world events and the perceived need of such change. One never knows what Russia might cook up in the future but other than that, only cost reduction would make sense. It is a resource waste that 27 members of the Union keeps their own national military, especially when it comes to the air forces, and the navies. I would welcome a system of EU air force bases placed to cover regions of Europe, and we have a common coast line which I think would benefit from being patrolled by a common navy.

I don't think we will see EU be given taxation powers either, but continue with the member fee system.

I think that we can only make the EU stronger by thinking of ourselves as Europeans first, and French, British, German, Polish or Hungarian second. But just because we join our sovereignty it doesn't mean we stop being Italian, British, Austrian et al. We are what we are, and that will not change due to this Union. Just because we give away sovereignty it doesn't mean we lose culture, pride or integrity. We gain more than we lose. Because we are only Europe and Europeans together.

Sprinkles
27-04-10, 17:42
Portugal Cut Two Steps to A- by S&P as Greek Contagion Spreads
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqPjUEkeXrfw&pos=1

S&P downgrades Greece ratings into junk status
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWNA964520100427?type=marketsNews

2nd UPDATE: Greece, Portugal, Spain Debt Insurance Hits High
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100427-714236.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope

Wilhelm
27-04-10, 17:50
Portugal Cut Two Steps to A- by S&P as Greek Contagion Spreads
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqPjUEkeXrfw&pos=1

S&P downgrades Greece ratings into junk status
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWNA964520100427?type=marketsNews

2nd UPDATE: Greece, Portugal, Spain Debt Insurance Hits High
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100427-714236.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope
It seems you missed again Ireland : Ireland's five-year sovereign CDS were at 228 basis points Tuesday morning from 199 basis points at Monday's close:

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201004270900dowjonesdjonline000 250&title=update-greece-portugal-spain-debt-insurance-costs-hit-highs

Cambrius (The Red)
27-04-10, 17:54
Portugal Cut Two Steps to A- by S&P as Greek Contagion Spreads
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqPjUEkeXrfw&pos=1
S&P downgrades Greece ratings into junk status
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWNA964520100427?type=marketsNews
2nd UPDATE: Greece, Portugal, Spain Debt Insurance Hits High
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100427-714236.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope

So, are you also betting on (HOPING FOR) the collapse of the E.U. as a whole? As I said previously, wait until the Greek aid package dust settles...

Sprinkles
27-04-10, 18:04
It seems you missed again Ireland : Ireland's five-year sovereign CDS were at 228 basis points Tuesday morning from 199 basis points at Monday's close:

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201004270900dowjonesdjonline000 250&title=update-greece-portugal-spain-debt-insurance-costs-hit-highs






On Monday, Greece's five-year CDS did hit 750 basis points, before recovering slightly.
Greece GDP: 330b


Similarly, Portugal's CDS were also under pressure, with spreads around 39 basis points wider from Monday's close at 349 basis points, data from CMA showed.
Portugal GDP: 227b


And Spain's five-year CDS rose above 200 basis points, to 204 basis points, from a closing level of 188 basis points.
Spain GDP: 1,464b


Ireland's five-year sovereign CDS were at 228 basis points Tuesday morning from 199 basis points at Monday's close.
Ireland GDP: 227b

Sprinkles
27-04-10, 18:08
I wonder why Spain wants to bailout Greece. Maybe it's because they know they're next, and they're bigger than Greece, Portugal and Ireland combined?

^ lynx ^
27-04-10, 19:18
To cut out the bullsh*t from the north-american speculators, maybe?

^ lynx ^
27-04-10, 19:27
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUpOL0hwdhM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YRb2sgfbN4

Cambrius (The Red)
27-04-10, 19:46
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUpOL0hwdhM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YRb2sgfbN4

Interesting video content.

In the end, Greece will likely be forced out of the Eurozone, but the euro will be fine over the long-term. The biggest problem right now is a total lack of trust in Greece being able to follow through on the agreed budget cuts.

^ lynx ^
27-04-10, 20:08
More from eminent economist William Engdahl:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nql4ZYsEWX0

Cambrius (The Red)
27-04-10, 20:45
More from eminent economist William Engdahl:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nql4ZYsEWX0

Anything is possible now-a-days.

Sprinkles
28-04-10, 17:37
Spain now downgraded:

S&P On Rampage, Downgrades Spain To AA On "Risks To Budgetary Position", Outlook Negative
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-rampage-downgrades-spain-aa-risks-budgetary-position-outlook-negative

^ lynx ^
28-04-10, 18:20
Predictable. S&P is a north-american-based agency.

Sprinkles
30-04-10, 17:26
With $2 Trillion In 3 Year Funding Needs By the PIIGS, The IMF Is Helpless To Do Anything But Sit Back And Watch
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/2-trillion-3-year-funding-needs-piigs-imf-helpless-do-anything-sit-back-and-watch




You think the EU will survive that?

Gwyllgi
30-04-10, 17:28
How much funding is the US going to need over the next three years?

Sprinkles
30-04-10, 17:57
This is only 15% of the Eurozone economy and they need 2,000,000,000,000 USD.

Who knows how much the US needs but the USD is backed by petro.

Cambrius (The Red)
30-04-10, 18:58
With $2 Trillion In 3 Year Funding Needs By the PIIGS, The IMF Is Helpless To Do Anything But Sit Back And Watch
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/2-trillion-3-year-funding-needs-piigs-imf-helpless-do-anything-sit-back-and-watch
You think the EU will survive that?


The EU will survive and prosper.

Cambrius (The Red)
30-04-10, 19:02
Predictable. S&P is a north-american-based agency.

The rating agencies, such as S&P and Moodys, looked the other way when the mortgage meltdown was developing and now they are so quick to pull the trigger. Overcompensating for past incompetence and lack of integrity?

^ lynx ^
01-05-10, 03:09
How much funding is the US going to need over the next three years?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n3g5lUgkWk