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edao
17-10-10, 17:36
Below are 3 senarios for the future of Europe, which option would you preffer?

Option 1
A decade of very low growth and high unemployment all ‘round. The danger is that in a decade’s time, Europeans will be so thoroughly disillusioned with the European project that it will fall apart politically.

Option 2
The second scenario is default—whether partial or full. A partial default or debt restructuring exercise will, minimally, involve losses for creditor banks in Germany and France and necessitate further bailouts. Maximally, debtor-led full default would lead some Club-Med countries to leave the Eurozone, entailing the possible demise of the single currency. Alternatively, growing German resistance to ‘bailouts’ and a serious falling out with Paris over its export-led growth model might lead Germany to quit the euro and revert to its beloved DM.

Option 3
The third scenario is fundamental reform of the Eurozone: the establishment of a genuine European Treasury with a substantial budget and fiscal powers and reform of the ECB, starting with the emission of federal Eurobonds. It is becoming increasingly clear that if the euro is to be saved, this is the path Europeans will need to adopt. By contrast, universal fiscal retrenchment enforced by levying fines on ‘profligate countries’ fails to address the real issues.

Source (http://blogs.euobserver.com/irvin/2010/10/04/why-club-med-cuts-wont-work/)

Garrick
09-02-11, 18:42
edao
Reputation for excellent topic and I think that in the coming years Europe will grow stronger.

Europe, clearly, can not, and certainly will not allow to lag behind while others are advancing.

Certainly, Europe will realize the actions and implement changes that lead to progress.

Carlitos
11-02-11, 01:08
We must not lose hope when things go wrong.

Anyway, besides the political changes must be made moral changes occur, at least to my country's political class lacks a moral redemption shall discharge Europe, because they are stuck, my country is to head on drugs, corruption and etc. of bad things and our politicians believe that washing your face deceive the European Union, but I think it's time the European Union to put the batteries in the Spanish political class.

edao
08-06-11, 13:11
Dominique Strauss-Kahn :innocent: on the economic problems of the Eurozone


watch interview on youtube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKI3JgAAXqA)

Cimmerianbloke
09-06-11, 09:02
Excellent question, I might sound extreme in voting for the first option, but you must sometimes cut the leg to save the patient. The question is being a major issue now that any soft landing on Greek bailout, with possible ripple effects for Ireland and Spain, is now out of question. I opened another thread discussing giving back more responsabilities to national governments. it seems that, against all odds, a 2-speed Europe is the most adapted solution to the current situation. Option 3 is sweet but cannot be implemented in our lifetime due to the current decision-making process (or the lack of it...).

edao
09-06-11, 09:56
Looking back at this post I think we will probably see a combination of 2 & 3. Partial default of debt for countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal, which will be allowed to happen in more prosperous economic conditions if they arise (5-10 years from now).

This will no doubt create another shock wave through the global financial system but will be used to tie in Eurozone countries to a very rigid fiscal pact. It will be a half way house to a federal Europe.

I don't see the breakdown of the Eurozone happening. Greece and Portugal can't realistically leave the Euro because their new currency would depreciate very quickly. Most people would move their money out of those countries, the resulting currency flight would cripple their financial system. Also any remaining debts would be problematic as they would be in Euros.

That would leave the option of Germany and France exiting the Euro, with Germany enjoying booming exports why would they want a strong DM2 getting in the way. With the current situation France and Germany can play emperor of Europe, weak eurozone countries put them in the driving seat.

iapetoc
09-06-11, 11:06
Looking back at this post I think we will probably see a combination of 2 & 3. Partial default of debt for countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal, which will be allowed to happen in more prosperous economic conditions if they arise (5-10 years from now).

This will no doubt create another shock wave through the global financial system but will be used to tie in Eurozone countries to a very rigid fiscal pact. It will be a half way house to a federal Europe.

I don't see the breakdown of the Eurozone happening. Greece and Portugal can't realistically leave the Euro because their new currency would depreciate very quickly. Most people would move their money out of those countries, the resulting currency flight would cripple their financial system. Also any remaining debts would be problematic as they would be in Euros.

That would leave the option of Germany and France exiting the Euro, with Germany enjoying booming exports why would they want a strong DM2 getting in the way. With the current situation France and Germany can play emperor of Europe, weak eurozone countries put them in the driving seat.

well it is not exactly like that,
1) think why Norway does not enter EU???
2) what is the future of Euro? 1 E = 1$ or 1 E = 2 $?
3) shocked countries are informed? the money that went abroad? if a new currency, and drop of it? do you believe that stay out?

situation is more complex than we know, the case of Greece is a test, for stronger countries shock.
Europe is testing on how countries would re-act.
think an economy stronger than Greece like Spain x4 the Greek population????
the whole case stings, from Greek gov/s to ECB to IMF.

Dorianfinder
11-08-11, 15:06
The world is too fragmented and is suffering the consequences economically. Europe is suffering more than many others due to its higher levels of bureaucratic and political cronyism. Low productivity and redundant services such as translators and language centers place a large amount of the workforce outside the system. With increased integration countries within the Eurozone need to divide their resources and allocate their industries according to the bottom line. This is efficient and profitable. China and America have outpaced Europe simply because of their cohesive planning and lack of bureaucratic and technocratic nonsense. Europeans are fragmented psychologically and politically, the labor unions and churches have gotten involved in government.

Deus
02-09-11, 00:08
The world is too fragmented and is suffering the consequences economically. Europe is suffering more than many others due to its higher levels of bureaucratic and political cronyism. Low productivity and redundant services such as translators and language centers place a large amount of the workforce outside the system. With increased integration countries within the Eurozone need to divide their resources and allocate their industries according to the bottom line. This is efficient and profitable. China and America have outpaced Europe simply because of their cohesive planning and lack of bureaucratic and technocratic nonsense. Europeans are fragmented psychologically and politically, the labor unions and churches have gotten involved in government.

Looks like it will continue.

Reinaert
02-09-11, 19:30
I go for a communalistic Europe. The Europe of the regions. Great states like the USA, Russia, China and India show that too many rules are devastating. Even in a small country like The Netherlands we have too many rules!
The keyword is.. decentralization. Europe must never become a centralized state!

Mzungu mchagga
02-09-11, 19:58
Communalism is nothing new, it has already worked very well in Europe for thousands of years! Then the Bronze Age came and the Neolithic was over.

Reinaert
02-09-11, 21:09
Communalism is nothing new, it has already worked very well in Europe for thousands of years! Then the Bronze Age came and the Neolithic was over.
Very funny..
Communalism is still alive and kicking.
Any region in Europe has it's own regional products. We can outclass whatever country in the world if it comes to quality of food.
My message is, to dump MacDonalds, and other fast food junk, Coca Cola, Mars, and other unhealthy American shit, and to promote good European food.

Like the German original Bratwurst.. ;) On a rye bread, with a bit of senf. And a glass of German beer.

First of all, the EU is a consumer market, not a political system!

Mzungu mchagga
02-09-11, 22:02
Forget about food!
What about high tech products as computers, any sorts of communication tools, medical products, vehicles, energy suppliers such as photovoltaics?
Do you think that people of one village or extended region will be able to produce and organize all that stuff on their own? That it will work if you hand a factory or a research institute over to the ownership of a kolkhoz of villages? States won't exist! Neither evil kerosine fueled transport vehicles like planes! What if some farmers say they are not willing to hand their products over to scientists (abstract sciences like maths) who have nothing to offer back?

Reinaert
03-09-11, 09:31
Every region in the world should be able to produce it's own food. It's ridiculous what happens now. International transport is only possible because the fuel is kept on a low price. Airlines don't pay tax on fuel like cars and trucks have to.
Transport to far away places can be done by ships with modern technology that saves energy. The technology already exists.
And I guess you don't know the difference between communalism and anarchism. In communalism a state exists, but the overall government acts only for federal purposes. All other matters can be done by the regions.

And why wouldn't farmers hand over their products to scientists? Farmers will need new navigating systems for instance.
Things like GPS controlled harvesting, monitoring, and fertilization.
Each square meter can be monitored to produce an optimal quality of crops.

Mzungu mchagga
03-09-11, 17:12
Reinaert, you know so much about communalism, love your region Brabant and are a Celtic warrior! Why don't you just form your regional communalist party and run candidate instead of sitting here?

Reinaert
03-09-11, 20:43
Reinaert, you know so much about communalism, love your region Brabant and are a Celtic warrior! Why don't you just form your regional communalist party and run candidate instead of sitting here?

Because I am Celtic, hate politics, and try to convince people through understanding.
Today already, The Netherlands seems to break away from the Anglo-American economical model, in the direction of the Rhineland model. Yes, it's getting a speed up in my country.
Managers are considered as a pestilence now.

The Dutch are moving towards what I predicted.
Politics are ridiculed, what matters is economy.

edao
10-11-11, 13:47
Looks like we are between options 2 & 3!

"NICOLAS Sarkozy is causing a big stir after calling on November 8thfor a two-speed Europe: a “federal” core of the 17 members of the euro zone, with a looser “confederal” outer band of the ten non-euro members. He made the comments during a debate with students at the University of Strasbourg." source (http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2011/11/future-eu?fsrc=scn/tw/te/twospeedeuro)

Watch Sarkozy Speech here! (http://www.elysee.fr/president/mediatheque/videos/2011/novembre/echange-avec-les-etudiants-de-l-universite-de.12395.html?search=&xtmc=&xcr=&offset=0&context=null)

julia90
14-11-11, 19:53
i think europe is vital for my country.. because only with the imposition by europe our bureaucracy and, statal work could be cutted, it never happened before when the eu power on its states were lower, now the situation can change in good for italy..

francois14
16-11-11, 14:45
Because I am Celtic, hate politics, and try to convince people through understanding.
Today already, The Netherlands seems to break away from the Anglo-American economical model, in the direction of the Rhineland model. Yes, it's getting a speed up in my country.
Managers are considered as a pestilence now.

The Dutch are moving towards what I predicted.
Politics are ridiculed, what matters is economy.

Such a hot topic and such low discussions ! Are you not worried about your/our own future ? It seems like politics have lost all their importance and economy is the only working force that will lead us to our success or our downfall... What about the European people themselves ??? Why do we lack interest ? Where is our European Community and where are its members ?

Cimmerianbloke
19-11-11, 02:26
The point to join the EU was to get rich and move everyone up to middle class, and most people believed it. That is how some member states got into the spending frenzy and started the high life, feeling like money was growing on trees, or rather money was flowing at the end of a pen-stroke. Effort, discipline and hard work have become words fascists use. The funny thing is that it allowed Germany to achieve naturally the goal the fascist government did not reach with a war: total control of the continent...

francois14
26-11-11, 15:33
From most peoples' answers it doesn't seem that you are putting much importance on the Europeans themselves, but rather economy and politics. Do you think that the EU and its Member States do not emphasize the role of its citizens as much ? Because from what I read, no one mentions what is key to the EU and that is its people. Do we not need some sort of European Identity to emerge from the current crises as one ?

Carlos
26-11-11, 16:18
As European thought that it is the moment to sacrifice self-interest and individuals in favor of Europe, walking towards an entire union, identifying the enemies of Europe and neutralizing them. It has to begin to soak through the love towards Europe beyond the commerce, moral values and feeling to create the Europe of the future.

francois14
26-11-11, 16:48
So you think that European people and values come after restoring some order in the EU ? I can understand that, but what do you mean by "neutralizing enemies" ? What do you think should be done to create this "Europe of the future" ?

Cimmerianbloke
26-11-11, 17:02
A European identity never existed. Europe is at best the expression of occidental capitalism. The first crack in the building appears and we're all Greeks, Germans, Italians, French, blaming the others for their flaws. The EU integration program was supposed to tie us together but Brussels behave like the worst dictators when it did not acknowledge the "no" vote to the European Constitution referendums in France, Ireland and Holland. An irony for these idjeets that promote democracy abroad...
The project shows its limits to deal effectively with real-life crises and its failure to improve the citizens well-being and welfare. These goons are going to beat us 40 years back thanks to their uselessness.

Carlos
26-11-11, 17:02
So you think that European people and values come after restoring some order in the EU ? I can understand that, but what do you mean by "neutralizing enemies" ? What do you think should be done to create this "Europe of the future" ?

I think that there are secret interests against Europe, which Europe must recognize, identify and netralizar.

I believe that to create the Europe of the future every country must sacrifice and resign from part of his individualism, at present each one pulls the rope and this energy must be canalized in the only direction, sacrifice and resignation I think that they are the key for a real European Union otherwise we are going to be devoured by our secret enemies, and do not ask me those who are, our leaders have to find out that, it is possible that we have the enemy inside, an allied mole of those who want the defeat and the destruction of Europe.

edao
26-11-11, 18:20
Looking at the next 50-100 years people are living longer the global population has already exploded.
There is simply not enough resources to go around, money represents access to resources and it's no suprise that we now find our selves paying for the consuption of the last 20+ years.

A fragmentation of Europe will only make its harder for 'the people' of europe to get access to those resources.

The current problem we face it basically a redistribution of resources in Europe, the sharing of rich countires in the north with the struggling south. Merkel claims more Europe in her speaches but her words are empty, the point we have now reached is that more Europe means German money backing Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal. This is a step the Germans are simply not willing to make, instead they think they can mend a crisis here and there and push through politican reforms in a Europe increasingly disillusioned with union. The chances of treaty change working let alone being able to get through so many poltical systems is at best a long shot.

The EFSF was meant to offer financial anchor for the euro based on global investors, but the truth is all the money needed to guarantee a stable Euro already exists in Europe. It's just the same old problems of how to distribute wealth?

Perhaps the Eurozone should just invade Switzerland empty out the banks accounts.

francois14
26-11-11, 20:43
So you do not believe the EU and Europe could come out stronger from the crisis ? As a 'common' citizen (By that I am just assuming that you are not involved in politics or the economy in some way) do you blame the Greeks, the Spaniards or the Portuguese for the situation the EU finds itself in ? Or would you agree that it is a failure by Member States to blame each other or take Greece as a scape-goat, for the crisis, whereas they should have maintained some solidity and a union-like approach, taking the blame as a group ?

Researcher
30-11-11, 15:33
What is the Future of Europe?? I think this question can not be precisely answered. Firstly, we can not identify and predict the future of Europe independently from America, Russia, and Asian countries. Due to the world trade markets that are interconnected to each other, our world became dependent on each particular actor. I mean, that it is a mistake of European Leader;s to fight with the crises in Europe alone, without bearing in mind any help. Too pride??? Secondly, a general citizen can not feel himself European when EU leaders distinguish countries, between those Greece and Spain that lead the EU to the hell. As long as there is separation between "us" and "them" there can not be a united European nation. Thirdly, Europe consists of numerous nationalities, identities, cultures and religions. Starting from Napoleonic epoch an up to the end of the Second World War, European countries were barely fighting with each other. What kind of union at all are you talking about??? Each tries to enreach independently from others, it's a dramatic truth but the world works like that.

francois14
05-12-11, 20:01
Can anyone foresee the European Union drop the Euro ? or maybe some Member States exiting the Eurozone ? Here in Holland, there is a very large debate about the possibility of returning to the 'Gulden', the former Dutch currency. I have not heard such debates any where else, or at least it has not reached the same intensity, but to me what this shows is that there is no common idea of a European Future. The EU are trying to move in the same direction as a Union, but within the Member States, citizens are wondering whether the EU's direction is the right one. There are European FutureS being envisaged all around Europe, but at this point what is clear is that there is no unity around what the European Union should look like in the coming years...

Cimmerianbloke
06-12-11, 01:55
It seems the UK have sent documents to their embassies in the EU to get ready for massive problems due to the collapse of the euro in the coming weeks. Talks about dropping the Euro are getting more and more audible, as no other solution seems to be out there. The whole continent is on the verge of a massive recession and depression, and no way of it in the coming months. Some economies will have to take the plunge, and some countries will have to go through hyperausterity measures to stop the debt spiral, with the social unrest it will trigger. We're on for interesting times...

francois14
06-12-11, 14:03
Definitely not a very bright future ahead, seems like a lot of people in this forum share this skepticism towards our futures ! How do you feel as a German, do you think Germany has too much influence/power on the European Union ?

Gieljom88
06-12-11, 14:52
I think this period can be seen as the biggest challenge for 'Project Europe'. The outcome of this period will be decisive for the rest of the century. Merkel and Sarkozy have already plead for a new (adapted) EU-treaty that has to be present in March -> stronger punishment for countries that exceed the budget deficit.

edao
06-12-11, 15:10
I don't think Merkel quite understands what fiscal union means. All these half measure have been ripped to shreds by the markets and now she think a rule book is going to solve the problem, a rule book that is going to take months to pass into law.
Not to mention the tighter budget rules wouldn't account for Spanish economic collapse that wasn't really about government spending.

Fact is the Euros survival needs German money backing other countries, a move that has been rules out.

Nasius
09-03-12, 12:56
Fiscal federalism is the only 'way forward' for the European Union. It's current structure binds member states to a common monetary policy and a separately controlled fiscal policy. As we've seen this has prevented the countries from effectively redistributing wealth during the crisis, hence the 'European Debp Crisis'.

Cimmerianbloke
12-03-12, 02:28
Definitely not a very bright future ahead, seems like a lot of people in this forum share this skepticism towards our futures ! How do you feel as a German, do you think Germany has too much influence/power on the European Union ?


Actually, I was born in Belgium and worked my way around in Spain, Ireland, and in France before landing in Berlin in 2010.
Experience has shown me that versatile economies are more prepared to hard times than countries that heavily rely on government subsidies. I was in the south west of France at the height of the crisis (near Agen), and even though the nursing home where I worked was understaffed, it was very hard to get a full-time job because the company was using subsidies and only offered one month to three months contracts. I had to leave because life was getting too stressful, not knowing if you were going to be offered another contract at the end of the current month. Some of my colleagues have been living like that for years, alterning one-month contracts with unemployment the following to make sure the company gets subsidies to offer employment to unemployed people. Once in Berlin, I found a full-time job in one week. Salaries are lesser than in the rest of Germany, but costs are cheaper too.
My hindsight is that Germany has been the wallet of Europe for many decades (while coping with a difficult and costly reunification since 1991). I see it only as a fair thing for them to ask for guarantees their money is not thrown away. For historical reasons, the Germans have taken that role without any whining, conscient of their responsabilities in some of the worst events of the 20th century, but the new generation feels they do not bear the responsability held by their parents and grandparents and are entitled to enjoy the fruit of their hard work. Angela Merkel is the embodiment of that newfound confidence, and of the awareness that the German way is the only solution to the continent's economical woes. The heart of the problem is that Europeans' tolerance threshold to suffering is extremely low. The more I read the foreign press, the more I think about a child crying looking at the syringe before the actual injection is done. Injection whose purpose is to make him better...

Mmuller
02-09-13, 15:31
European future is the sinking euro...