View Full Version : Do not cry for me Argentina. Cry for you!

19-04-12, 00:59
To see if we understand. It is true that the Argentine neo-nationalism has played a role in the expropriation of Repsol, it is true that the violence raging naciolismo appears whenever the government needs to camouflage serious problems (and the Argentine government is no exception) and it is true that nationalization will harm mainly to Argentina (and here the only one who has hit the nail is the mayor of Buenos Aires, Mauricio Macri, who appears to be the only sensible politician around the country): Yesterday I asked in public if he was shot in the foot was Froilan, King Juan Carlos and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. The answer is ... All three at once!

All this is true, but it seems that Argentine citizens should begin to see that their political leaders not only use the nationalist populism to win their sympathy, but they are corrupt thieves who steal the wealth of their country. The nationalization of YPF has nothing to do with the energy needs of the people but by the incompetence of Dona Cristina, a desire to hide nefarious management and, above all, with the corruption of their environment ... and his son Max.

The story begins between 1992 and 1999, when the Peronist government of Carlos Menem (the same party of Kirchner) decided to privatize YPF due to the huge amount of losses of the company. It was a time when the company was poorly managed (as almost all public companies around the world) and the price of oil was around $ 15 a barrel. The Spanish company REPSOL, then directed by Alfonso Cortina, bought YPF Menem government (again, the same party that Kirchner).

1999 was a time when "Spain was good." Remember him? It was the Spain of the pitch, the new-rich slicked giving lessons worldwide management and heads of government who smoked cigars with their feet on the table. That arrogance was engraved in the minds of many Latin Americans who have waited years to get their moral debts. A pig which she gets her San Martin and it seems that Spain has come time to pay the humiliation to which he treated the citizens of Latin America.

That said, accepting the nouveau riche arrogance of the Spanish, the truth is that REPSOL paid (again, PAID) the price asked by the ruinous government company: 15,000 million. The merger was exemplary to the extent that the Financial Times awarded the annual prize for the best fusion REPSOL year.

In addition to these initial 15,000 million, Repsol has invested a total of 20,000 million dollars between 1999 and 2012, including about 3,200 million in 2011. 20,000 million in 12 years is no small investment, whatever it says the president of Argentina. In fact, one result of these investments has been the discovery of the Dead Cow deposits that can give extraordinary economic results despite yet to see the quality of oil deposited there.

In 2007, Antoni Brufau already at the forefront of oil, President Nestor Kirchner asked REPSOL an Argentine group became part of the company. It was the Petersen family group of Enrique Eskenazi. The Eskenazi family was upper middle class family in Santa Cruz, which had been chaired region (oh! coincidence!) By Nestor Kirchner, before he became president of Argentina. In fact, Enrique Eskenazi was a close friend of Mr. Nestor. That is, President Kirchner forced in 2007 to accept a partner Repsol Argentina that, coincidentally, was a close friend of a lifetime. Antoni Brufau accepted because I knew that it is always good to have local investors with political connections. It's good for you insiders signals the existence of yellow lights before they turn red. For this family accepted that Eskenazi has first 15% and then 25% of the company.

But there was one small problem: Eskenazi were the rich people in Santa Cruz, but one thing is that your children wander around town in luxury tacky red Ferraris or chuleen for the hottest clubs in the area and quite another is to buy 25% of a company worth tens of billions of dollars. The Eskenazi were not so rich!

How does the family friend of Kirchner buy 25% of Repsol-YPF? For forcing YPF to lend you the money! Again, Nestor Kirchner REPSOL forces to lend money to a family friend to buy it 25% of Repsol. And how will the family pay such amount millionaire? For the dividends of self REPSOL. That is, REPSOL, the Kirchner government and the Petersen Group Eskenazi family signed a contract (deposited with the Security Exchange Commission of New York) which requires REPSOL to give 25% of their capital to the Eskenazi family and this is agrees to pay back dividends to Repsol. To ensure that REPSOL may charge the "credit" (or should we call it extortion), Repsol agrees to distribute as dividends to 90% of its profits.

That is, when Mrs. Kirchner accused REPSOL not to allocate a greater share of their profits for investment and oil exploration, does not explain that her husband (again, HER HUSBAND) REPSOL had forced to use 90% of benefits pay dividends for your friends (again, his friends) to appropriate 25% of Repsol when they had not a dollar to purchase such number of shares (*).

But it does not end there. Mr. Enrique Eskenazi placed their children in the company (in particular, places his son Sebastian as vice president) and instead of acting as the local partner who plays the important role of alerting the amber lights before they appear red lights , behaves like a mobster recently incompetent to defend the interests of the company they run.

Gradually, REPSOL see who has gotten in trouble and that local partners play more in favor of politicians who have placed in the charge for the company they represent and will soon appear rumors of nationalization. They are the last days of 2011, Repsol has discovered the potential sources of Vaca Muerta millionaires. The rest of the story is already known. Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, remote control by economist Axel Kicillof (**), Marxist scholar, mentor from the time of Campora (association created by Nestor Kirchner) and close friend of the president's son, Max Fernandez Kirchner, announced the expropriation of 51 % of REPSOL-YPF. "Interestingly" 51% of the shares expropriated from 57% owned by the Spanish partners. Exactly 0% 25% comes with Argentine partners, friends Dad Kirchner, Eskenazi family (and also expropriates 0% of North American investment fund owner of 17% ... and remember that spends three days after that Mrs. Cristina met with Obama to "negotiate" the issue).

The great problem of expropriation of REPSOL is that the response of the government of Spain, led by Mariano Rajoy, will necessarily be weak. Spain is a poor country with very little bargaining power and no ability to pressure their (theoretical) partners: European Union and the United States. So come and others have less desire to help their "partners" in Spanish that spending bills by the arrogant attitude of the Spanish presidents (Aznar and Zapatero) that not long ago gave them leccioncillas when things went well. And I say that's the big problem in Spain for two reasons. The first is that Argentine leaders, seeing the weak reaction of Spain, will grow your ego at the same rate that decreased when Thatcher's England were humiliated in their stupid campaign of the Falklands and his inflated ego boost your thirst expropriation or with anti-Spanish REPSOL revenge: think seriously expropriate other Spanish companies such as Telefonica, Santander and BBVA. We'll see.

The second reason that the spectacle of YPF is a problem for Spain is that other Latin American governments, also hurt by the Spanish neo-colonial arrogance of the nineties, are watching. And the desire for revenge can be spread to Argentina the continent. We will also have to wait and see how it evolves.

Meanwhile, the crisis has turned Spain into an economic corpse scavengers induce the world to feed their spoils: the Argentine government will continue its chulescas threats, the rest of Latin America humiliated not be left behind, but that's not all: Chinese oil companies try to exploit the deposits left by REPSOL and Argentina can not afford to explore, U.S. banks will fill the void left Santander and European multinationals, yes, yes, partners and European brothers will be on the watch, alert to keep any part of the business that the incompetence of the Spanish leaders left without defense.

(*) Everyone knows that, even now Dona Cristina pulls down the tear when speaking of her late husband, Mr. Kirchner have been living separate lives, parallel, very much in the direction of the kings of Spain, where the Monarch going to hunt elephants (or were elephants?) to Botswana.

(**) Is the radical Kicillof Axel paleomarxista that has managed to eclipse the Minister Amado Boudou, who tried to ban books or Samuelson Sachs in Argentine universities as "neoliberal". Kicillof professional life, a teacher of 41 years has been that of a sniper at the University of Buenos Aires, where he majored in history of economic thought. At the doctorate said that Keynes was a radical thinker misrepresented by bourgeois analysis. For him, Stiglitz and Krugman are almost as liberal as Mankiw and Barro. You see! The intimate friend of Max Kirchner and the ideologue of the expropriation. With these intellectual leaders directing the counter kirchneriana one must say that despite the episode is an indication of YPF of Spain has problems, the real problem is not Spain, but Argentina!


19-04-12, 03:00
I personally believe that Argentina has paid a heavy price in 2001 due to a number of factors that were not under the government's control, and that protectionism is only a proof that they learned their lesson. Is it fair? well, Repsol is very unlikely to go under, it will only deprive shareholders from a couple of millions extra revenue that, for the vast majority, they do not need to survive. The problem is twofold. Treating foreign companies roughshod, especially an ex-colonial power, is going to send the wrong message to Europe. The last thing we need now is the emergence of Chavez-style economic freedom fighters. Second, if governments do not comply with contracts dutifully signed, the door is open to all kinds of abuses and tensions that might quickly turn into full-blown diplomatic incidents. Argentina has never digested the Falklands war, and the middle class that lost everything in 2001 is probably willing to teach pompous Europeans a lesson or two on how to survive on a couple of euros a day. I am also, in that stance, partisan of a European economic protection program. Knowing how slow to think and bureaucratic-minded our leaders are, I have no doubts about the issue though...