my STRs closer match to M153 than its upstreams, except one?

Giver

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Ethnic group
Anglo-American
Y-DNA haplogroup
R1b-P312
mtDNA haplogroup
K1a (+195C)
I'm DF27+, and I've taken Geno 2.0 and am waiting for results. But in the meantime, in my impatience, I got curious and started comparing my 67 STRs with the subclade modals (at the FTDNA R1b-DF27 project page). I noticed a weird thing that I don't understand.

My strongest STR-to-subclade-modal match is Z209 (57 of 67 markers). Then it drops down at Z220 to 53 of 67 markers. Still a pretty dern close match. Here's what's odd, though: The match goes back up at M153: 55 of 67 markers.

Now, this strikes me as weird because a) I would expect there to be a linear increase in matches the further down the SNPs I travel, but the dip at Z220 breaks that pattern, and b) my family is anciently from England, not Spain.

What gives? Might I actually be M153? I'm sure this whole methodology is oversimplifying things. Just want some commentary from more knowledgeable folks than I.

Geno 2.0 should clear this up, but again, I'm impatient. :grin:
 
I have found that these marker values are common in R-M153 haplotypes. How do you compare?
DYS437 = 14
DYS460 = 10
DYS448 = 18
DYS456 = 16
H4 = 10
 
I have found that these marker values are common in R-M153 haplotypes. How do you compare?
DYS437 = 14
DYS460 = 10
DYS448 = 18
DYS456 = 16
H4 = 10

Dead ringer exact match on every single one. Except 456: I'm 15 on that one. But I don't think this particularly means much, as there are apparently plenty of Z209+/Z220+ guys who also have these that are M153-.

I just don't understand how my STR matches can drop at Z220, and then go back up at M153.
 
Well then based upon your matching I would say there is a greater than even chance that you are M153+ regardless of what you believe your ancestry to be. M153 is also found in France in Gascony. DNA testing is like a box of chocolates.....you never know what you're going to get. The fact that you more closely match a modal for M153 may be another hint.
 
Oh....have you viewed the haplotypes in the R-M153 Basque Marker project? There is one with 456 = 15.
 
Yeah, it's certainly possible that I'm M153+. It would just be a really surprising result, given what I know about my family history and how rare that SNP is outside of NE Iberia.
 

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