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LeBrok
18-11-13, 21:13
Our beloved Sun has disregarded recent models of solar activity, and inspite of scientists' prediction, of going in high activity it's going into a weak phase. And I really mean a very weak phase.
Besides esthetic changes, like a lack of sunspots, the sun becomes cooler in during weak activity. Because 99.999 of all energy on earth comes from the sun, it will have a pronounced effect on our planet.
This low activity can be equal to Maunder Minimum from the year 1645 to 1715. Times of little ice age, when Baltic Sea was frozen solid every winter.
Are we going into little ice age again?

Article:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128268488

Fragments:

That's right, yeah. And the sun tends to go through these longer cycles like that. Again, there's an 11-year cycle of activity, but there are big cycles and small cycles, and they tend to grow and then get small again. There's about 100-year periodicity in that, that at the beginning of the 20th century we had a couple of small sunspots cycles. And at the beginning of the 19th century we had two really small cycles.
The beginning of the 18th century, we were just coming out the period of 70 years without sunspots, where it's been called the Maunder Minimum.
But it may be longer. In fact, a number of my colleagues have suggested that perhaps, or certainly there's the possibility that we are heading into another one of these long, grand minima like the Maunder Minimum. You know, the Maunder Minimum from the year 1645 to 1715, and it was 70 years, virtually, without sunspots. There were a few that started taking up near the end. But, basically, as far as sun spots, the sun stopped doing it for 70 years.

It comes at the end of what is called the Little Ice Age for climate. And both that minimum and the minimum at the beginning of the 19th century correspond to cool times in Earth's climate. It has led us to believe that the sun does - the solar variability, I should say, this, you know, coming and going of sunspot cycles - does influence climate to some extent. And the big question is to how big an extent. And there's a wide range of feelings on what that is.

To be honest, this scientist also predicts that this weak phase won't stop anthropogenic effect of global warming. However, we might take all of this with a grain of salt, because he was wrong in his predictions before.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/files/2014/10/Sunspot-1024x1024.jpg

hope
19-11-13, 19:17
Interesting stuff, LeBrok.
I remember reading, a few months back, regarding several massive flares, I think they registered as X flares[?]. They were not directly facing earth so we were, in that instance at least, not effected by them.

Either way,I see there will be no get out easy card regarding global warming.

LeBrok
02-12-13, 03:41
And when we thought the sun is really quiet, a huge explosion rips the sun surface.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Qurh_BZ-O2E#t=0
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/solar-explosion-forms-canyon-fire (https://www.sciencenews.org/article/solar-explosion-forms-canyon-fire)

Garrick
02-12-13, 22:33
LeBrok, in the theme about energy we talked that much more energy will be needed if planet enter in new ice age.

In Internet there are a lot of articles that ice age coming, small example.

http://www.winningreen.com/site/epage/59549_621.htm

If Sun is main factor climatic changes, and if Sun weakens its activities then Earth is in problem with cooling.

We will see.

LeBrok
03-12-13, 05:25
Good article, I agree with on every point. Maybe with one exception about length of interglacial period. There are some predictions that it might be as long as 20 thousand years, not 10. Looking at history of Ice Ages they were all a bit different from each other, not much but still. From graph below we can guess that interglaciar can be as short as couple of thousand of years and as long as 20 thousand. Unfortunately we still lack the knowledge to predict it precisely.
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Hos_8.png

Most likely (hopefully) we are going into another Little Ice Age and not the big one. And hopefully extra CO2 will mitigate severity of Little Ice Age


This graph shows that total energy from the sun is dropping since 1990.
http://nextgrandminimum.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/figure-2-tsi-variations.png?w=640&h=475
http://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/2012/11/10/russians-scientist-the-next-grand-minimum/


I'm in agreement with Gerald Marsh that it is a beneficial thing for the whole planet to increase CO2 level to more "healthy" level of double of today's, around 800 ppm. This potentially could stop Ice Ages. This would also make Earth more wet and greener.
Historically speaking our CO2 level is very depleted and it might be one of main causes of Ice Ages, which started in last 3 million years.

LeBrok
22-02-14, 19:50
Amazing video of our sun, 5 stars rating.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NAg4qXsk99c

ElHorsto
22-02-14, 22:07
I'm in agreement with Gerald Marsh that it is a beneficial thing for the whole planet to increase CO2 level to more "healthy" level of double of today's, around 800 ppm. This potentially could stop Ice Ages. This would also make Earth more wet and greener.
Historically speaking our CO2 level is very depleted and it might be one of main causes of Ice Ages, which started in last 3 million years.

Also vegetation adapts to CO2 levels.

Regarding sun activity I wonder wether it is the cause of the slowing Jet-Stream which is suspected by some to cause the current weather extremes in recent years. If Jet-Stream is too weak, weather gets less evenly distributed, resulting in concentrated flooding and drought at the same time in different places.

LeBrok
01-03-14, 23:30
Also vegetation adapts to CO2 levels.


They are already adapted and grow faster in double and triple concentration of CO2. Extra CO2 is used in most greenhouses. Plants grow 10% faster and are 20% bigger.


Supplementation of CO2 is seen as the only method to overcome this deficiency and increasing the level above 340 ppm is beneficial for most crops. The level to which the CO2 concentration should be raised depends on the crop, light intensity, temperature, ventilation, stage of the crop growth and the economics of the crop. For most crops the saturation point will be reached at about 1,000–1,300 ppm under ideal circumstances. A lower level (800–1,000 ppm) is recommended for raising seedlings (tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers) as well as for lettuce production. Even lower levels (500–800 ppm) are recommended for African violets and some Gerbera varieties. Increased CO2 levels will shorten the growing period (5%–10%), improve crop quality and yield, as well as, increase leaf size and leaf thickness. The increase in yield of tomato, cucumber and pepper crops is a result of increased numbers and faster flowering per plant.
http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/crops/facts/00-077.htm#when

LeBrok
23-10-14, 23:13
Hold on to your pants!


The Sun has been acting up lately, producing one powerful X-class flare and several more moderate flares over the past 72 hours.
You can see the X-class flare exploding off the lower left aspect of the Sun in the false-color image above, which was captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory in the extreme ultraviolet wavelength of 131 Angstroms. This wavelength is ideal for seeing the intense heat of a flare.
Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field protect us from solar eruptions that are pointed at us, but satellite operations can suffer varying degrees of disruption and even damage. And if an eruption is large enough, the results can be much, much worse (http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/).
With the rise of solar activity over the past few days, minor geomagnetic storms may have occurred, according to the Space Weather Prediction Center (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). These are capable of producing weak fluctuations in power grids.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/files/2014/10/x-class-flare-1024x1024.jpeg
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2014/10/21/flares-erupt-active-region-sun/#5465