Greek exit [in the markets!]

Echetlaeus

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So Holland, and to be more specific, a newspaper there called "Het Financieelde Dagblad", published an article acknowledging the fact that Greece is the only country in modern history that has made so many reforms in little time. A couple of days ago we had the chance to go to the markets again (almost after 4 years) and got some money in a relatively good interest rate.

I hope that the worst has already passed, we need to move on and decrease unemployment now, which has already skyrocket. :cool-v:
 
congratulations, I wish you good luck and succes, because you still have a long road ahead
 
and got some money in a relatively good interest rate.

Don't want to diminish the reforms, they have been really hard. But the interest rate merely shows how the risk is covered by EU taxpayers since Brussel's order. It means absolutely nothing about Greece's economic status.
 
Good luck and may the worst be over and look out for a brighter future.
 
That is very true. I believe that in the next two years we will be, more or less, well stabilised.
 
Economic "reform", in the sense of shutting down small businesses and impoverishing the average citizen while giving more economic control to the rich, will cause economic stagnation for decades to come. Magical thinking doesn't really work when it comes to economics. It's Joe and Jane Average who make the economic wheel turn and as long as they have nothing, the economy will sputter.
 
Economic "reform", in the sense of shutting down small businesses and impoverishing the average citizen while giving more economic control to the rich, will cause economic stagnation for decades to come. Magical thinking doesn't really work when it comes to economics. It's Joe and Jane Average who make the economic wheel turn and as long as they have nothing, the economy will sputter.

Time will tell bro, time will tell ...
 
Don't want to diminish the reforms, they have been really hard. But the interest rate merely shows how the risk is covered by EU taxpayers since Brussel's order. It means absolutely nothing about Greece's economic status.

I don't find it a good idea to have that low interest rate as Germany. This makes you greedy and eventually you accumulate lot's of debt. From now on we have to be a little bit stringent in financial policies. Greece has many potentials as a country, but it needs good leaders to make reforms that will last. I
 
It's Joe and Jane Average who make the economic wheel turn and as long as they have nothing, the economy will sputter.
Tell us Aberdeen, how ordinary Joe gets the capital to open a factory or capital to get in production what he invented, or invents new medication or a smartphone?
 
Tell us Aberdeen, how ordinary Joe gets the capital to open a factory or capital to get in production what he invented, or invents new medication or a smartphone?

Ask Steven Jobs that question. He was the son of working class parents but managed to invent and market the Apple line of products and he died insanely rich, mostly because he produced something that Joe and Jane Average wanted, and he marketed his products in countries where people have the money to buy such things. I think a better question is whether Steven Jobs could have done what he did if he had been born and raised in a country that was too poor for him to be able to imagine average citizens buying computers and smart phones. Factories are useless unless people can afford to buy what they produce. America industrialized in the 19th century but didn't really become wealthy and powerful until after the rise of the unions in the 1930s - by the 1950s, the average American worker was much better off as a result of union activity and America had become the world's strongest economy.
 
Ask Steven Jobs that question. He was the son of working class parents but managed to invent and market the Apple line of products and he died insanely rich, mostly because he produced something that Joe and Jane Average wanted, and he marketed his products in countries where people have the money to buy such things. I think a better question is whether Steven Jobs could have done what he did if he had been born and raised in a country that was too poor for him to be able to imagine average citizens buying computers and smart phones. Factories are useless unless people can afford to buy what they produce. America industrialized in the 19th century but didn't really become wealthy and powerful until after the rise of the unions in the 1930s - by the 1950s, the average American worker was much better off as a result of union activity and America had become the world's strongest economy.

Yes innovations are really important, but you need to have well established property rights, freedom and, in general, an environment that will make people willing to take risks. Unions for many reasons, may slow down the economic engine sometimes.
And a reminder, 'Murica became the leader of the world after the great European powers turned into ashes after the WW2.
 
Ask Steven Jobs that question. He was the son of working class parents but managed to invent and market the Apple line of products and he died insanely rich, mostly because he produced something that Joe and Jane Average wanted, and he marketed his products in countries where people have the money to buy such things.
I'm not sure why you put genius Jobs in ordinary Joe department. Regardless, do you know who gave Jobs money to built his first apple factory?

I think a better question is whether Steven Jobs could have done what he did if he had been born and raised in a country that was too poor for him to be able to imagine average citizens buying computers and smart phones
. Right, there is a reason why so many inventions and innovation happen in US. People are more willing to invest in risky ventures, and it has the biggest financial capital in its disposition. If you played Robin Hood and grabbed all this capital and gave it to poor, there wouldn't be no Steve Jobs, no Ebay, no Amazon or no other innovations coming from US. The poor would be few dollars richer but they wouldn't have TVs, cellphones or cheap food.

Factories are useless unless people can afford to buy what they produce
This is where you are mistaken. The good economy is about production of goods, the factories, the construction, etc. Money is only an exchange vehicul. According to you Greeks should print lots of money to become well off, right? I think it was tried many times before, and didn't work every time. Check the last example of socialistic beacon Venezuela. What is the inflation there this year?


America industrialized in the 19th century but didn't really become wealthy and powerful until after the rise of the unions in the 1930s - by the 1950s, the average American worker was much better off as a result of union activity and America had become the world's strongest economy.
I have no idea where you got this concept. Actually US is in much better economical shape now when unions are not strongest. And yes after Reagan's reforms. Toucher had to beat the unions in UK to finally move economy forward. You should refresh your knowledge about stagnation of 70s and 80s.
I have nothing against workers having good income and good life, and unions did its share of good job on behalf of workers. However like with everything in life overdose of anything is bad, and at the end such powerful unions crippled production, innovations, investments and markets. They are in part to blame in Detroit fiasco, and many other companies closed and moved abroad trend.
 
Well, LeBrok, I guess that growing up in a Stalinist country traumatized you to the point where you're an uncritical fan of cowboy capitalism, despite its obvious failings as an economic system. But this little map of real earnings per household in the U.S. show what their problem is. And bear in mind that it's a chart of average household income during a time when more and more women became paid employees outside the home. Real wages for individuals with limited education actually fell considerably during the time period shown below. This situation isn't something I think we should try to imitate.

household-incomes-mean-real.gif
 
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I don't find it a good idea to have that low interest rate as Germany. This makes you greedy and eventually you accumulate lot's of debt. From now on we have to be a little bit stringent in financial policies. Greece has many potentials as a country, but it needs good leaders to make reforms that will last. I

No, I mean that the current interest rates of greek bonds do not reflect the economic risk of greece alone because the risk of greece is almost eliminated by the other EU countries and the ECB. Else greek bonds would again have much much higer interest rates.

EDIT: Greek debt in 2010 was 130%, now it is 170%. Effectively the measures increased debt, pain and armament. But there are EU elections soon.
 
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Greece is a net-consumer and simply cannot produce enough to keep it's economy from borrowing. Start-up costs are high, labor is too expensive, local services are poor, there are many Holidays when public services are closed, there are even more days when public services shut down in strike action, transport and communication services are expensive and erratic, locals have no disposable income anymore, tourists are now increasingly from Russia and Russia is being sanctioned by the EU and the USA for it's policy in the Crimea.

Despite the high levels of debt Greece has cut spending and continues to streamline it's public sector. Politicians and public servants are being scrutinized and they are taking home much less than they use to. Universities are beginning to focus on research and publications but they still have a long way to go ...

The most important change is cultural. Greek society is slowly accepting the reality that the public service position is not a good option anymore. This will for the most part motivate Greeks to secure their own futures and stop relying on government for everything. Pensions will have to be supplemented by private retirement annuities etc. and land that is lying dormant will have to become productive in some way or be leased, renovated or sold-off. These changes will provide a new impetus in the property market and create some jobs but most importantly, with the proper incentives industry could increase exports and local businesses make a difference in general quality of life as labor becomes cheaper and education begins to improve. The tourism industry needs to be supplemented during the Winter months by SME's, industrial, property and financial markets. Telecommunications are improving due to increased privatization and competition; and transport will always be a problem as Greece has a large road network in rural areas with serious weather in the Winter months. The islands need more air-links with seaplanes and faster ferries.

Lastly, but most importantly ... Greece needs a stable government and people need to stop fighting the necessary changes that should have taken place twenty years ago.
 
Greece is a net-consumer and simply cannot produce enough to keep it's economy from borrowing. Start-up costs are high, labor is too expensive, local services are poor, there are many Holidays when public services are closed, there are even more days when public services shut down in strike action, transport and communication services are expensive and erratic, locals have no disposable income anymore, tourists are now increasingly from Russia and Russia is being sanctioned by the EU and the USA for it's policy in the Crimea.

Despite the high levels of debt Greece has cut spending and continues to streamline it's public sector. Politicians and public servants are being scrutinized and they are taking home much less than they use to. Universities are beginning to focus on research and publications but they still have a long way to go ...

The most important change is cultural. Greek society is slowly accepting the reality that the public service position is not a good option anymore. This will for the most part motivate Greeks to secure their own futures and stop relying on government for everything. Pensions will have to be supplemented by private retirement annuities etc. and land that is lying dormant will have to become productive in some way or be leased, renovated or sold-off. These changes will provide a new impetus in the property market and create some jobs but most importantly, with the proper incentives industry could increase exports and local businesses make a difference in general quality of life as labor becomes cheaper and education begins to improve. The tourism industry needs to be supplemented during the Winter months by SME's, industrial, property and financial markets. Telecommunications are improving due to increased privatization and competition; and transport will always be a problem as Greece has a large road network in rural areas with serious weather in the Winter months. The islands need more air-links with seaplanes and faster ferries.

Lastly, but most importantly ... Greece needs a stable government and people need to stop fighting the necessary changes that should have taken place twenty years ago.
Thanks for this great summary, I find it very objective, and it means a lot when coming from Greek himself.

Were there any changes in government policies to entice foreign investment capital to turn around economy much faster, than it would happen just relying on local funds, which we know, are not that substantial.
 
Were there any changes in government policies to entice foreign investment capital to turn around economy much faster, than it would happen just relying on local funds, which we know, are not that substantial.

There is a new foreign investment framework in place that includes cash grants & municipal lease agreements, unfortunately Greece has a harsh tax system that seems to be easing slightly ... there are a few large scale investments for example Chinese investors have invested in port operations and port infrastructure but many of these large scale investments are problematic causing trade unions and government to clash heads on a frequent basis. Government often finds itself signing protection clauses guaranteeing certain rights over strategic assets but in order to close these deals it takes on political responsibility for any trade union adversity ... international companies would otherwise not consider entering Greece's volatile labor market.

It is easier to start a business now but the costs are still out of proportion with earnings potential, especially with disposable income at current levels. Trade tariffs have eased and productivity is increasing nicely but this is mainly due to lay-offs ... the offset to this is that many young Greeks are leaving for greener pastures.

Pensioners are being forced to start thinking about selling off their homes and other parcels of land located in the village to make up for decreases in monthly income from pension cuts. The irony is that progress will inevitably come at a high cost as Greece has maintained an outdated economic system for far too long. I predict a large number of family trusts being opened to safe-guard estates from needy family members who want to sell, problem is most individuals lack a decent education and struggle to comprehend the ever-changing legal and tax systems. Courts will be overrun by small-scale family feuds regarding land that hasn't been divided up properly for generations.

There is a fear of government that is largely based on prejudice and political rhetoric coming from over-zealous journalists. Public participation in local government is low and people still vote along generations-old party lines that are family-specific. This is changing slowly but people tend to vote for ridiculous parties like Golden Dawn when they become disillusioned with their own parties ... helping little to improve international sentiments.

The media is to a large extent irresponsible and could do a much better job in improving the business climate and future prospects of Greece. It's disappointing to watch shouting matches every evening on TV ... does very little to alleviate public fears of a prolonged economic crisis.
 
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Well, LeBrok, I guess that growing up in a Stalinist country traumatized you to the point where you're an uncritical fan of cowboy capitalism, despite its obvious failings as an economic system. But this little map of real earnings per household in the U.S. show what their problem is. And bear in mind that it's a chart of average household income during a time when more and more women became paid employees outside the home. Real wages for individuals with limited education actually fell considerably during the time period shown below. This situation isn't something I think we should try to imitate.

household-incomes-mean-real.gif

Not having time to dissect this statistic, I'll point one "little" thing that gets always omitted. Lets say the bottom 50% is not progressing much or at all and this graph is true. It means they can buy exactly same amount of things in 60s and 2010s, to justify stagnation of wages when inflation is taken under consideration. Now, we have to realise that things frm 60s are not exactly same things as now. Take a car for example. Today's cars contain standard features like power steering, air conditioning, airbags, stereo, safety features, 3x more efficient engines, intermittent wipers, cruise control, lots and lots more technology which didn't exist in 60s or was optional and only standard in cars for rich. Let's look at houses. Today's houses are twice bigger with superior windows and insulation, few times more wiring and electrical fixtures, and contain appliances which didn't even exist in 60s. Look at telephones, they were only black, stationary with expensive service. Today they are portable, smart and with application for everything. Food is more delicious, with variety, and contains more calories (reasons why people are fatter these days), movies - you don't even need to leave your house, vacation - for 1000 bucks all inclusive in Mexico with a flight included (unheard of in 60s), etc, etc
So even though this statistic shows stagnation for bottom 50% there was a tremendous progress in their standard of living too.
 
Not having time to dissect this statistic, I'll point one "little" thing that gets always omitted. Lets say the bottom 50% is not progressing much or at all and this graph is true. It means they can buy exactly same amount of things in 60s and 2010s, to justify stagnation of wages when inflation is taken under consideration. Now, we have to realise that things frm 60s are not exactly same things as now. Take a car for example. Today's cars contain standard features like power steering, air conditioning, airbags, stereo, safety features, 3x more efficient engines, intermittent wipers, cruise control, lots and lots more technology which didn't exist in 60s or was optional and only standard in cars for rich. Let's look at houses. Today's houses are twice bigger with superior windows and insulation, few times more wiring and electrical fixtures, and contain appliances which didn't even exist in 60s. Look at telephones, they were only black, stationary with expensive service. Today they are portable, smart and with application for everything. Food is more delicious, with variety, and contains more calories (reasons why people are fatter these days), movies - you don't even need to leave your house, vacation - for 1000 bucks all inclusive in Mexico with a flight included (unheard of in 60s), etc, etc
So even though this statistic shows stagnation for bottom 50% there was a tremendous progress in their standard of living too.

For such a smart guy, you sure can be dumb when faced with facts you don't like. If something becomes larger, more complex and more expensive and a person's income remains the same, they aren't better off but worse off, since that thing becomes less attainable. Perhaps that economic decline is why a former American president, Jimmy Carter, said that even middle class Americans live the way the poor used to. I don't want to see Canada go the way the U.S. has, with the middle class being hollowed out and society being divided into the rich and the poor. But Greece seems to have already gone that way and the people there aren't really fighting back all that much. Perhaps that's because they believe the lie that the economic change they're going through is temporary pain. It isn't - it's intended to be permanent, with Greek society divided between a few plutocrats and a mass of peasantry. Perhaps once Greeks realize that, they'll finally start to fight back.
 
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For such a smart guy, you sure can be dumb when faced with facts you don't like. If something becomes larger, more complex and more expensive and a person's income remains the same, they aren't better off but worse off, since that thing becomes less attainable.
Before you make such bold statement, you better compare prices of these items to incomes of people in related time periods. Looks like you didn't do your homework. For example in 1965 average income in US was 6,000 and average car costed 3,000, now average income is about 50,000 and you can buy well equipped sedan for 25,000. Actually if someone manufactured these primitive cars from 1965 today, the cost would be around 6,000, remember Lada in Canada in 90s for 5,000? If it comes to smart phones, with video camera, GPS, computer and other goodies, you can't even find equivalent thing to compare in 1965, lol. Unless you compare it to military technology of 1965 worth hundreds of thousands if not millions. I'm not sure why you didn't notice that progress in technology and manufacturing makes things more affordable.
 

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