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Maciamo
19-04-14, 13:53
I haven't been very active on Eupedia in the last few weeks. The reason is that I have been reading a lot about future technologies and started a new website called Life 2.0 (http://www.vitamodularis.org/). Feel free to join the Facebook page (https://www.facebook.com/vitamodularis).

Here is my first article:


Your life is going to change faster than ever before

http://www.vitamodularis.org/images/design/VM-timeline.jpg (http://www.vitamodularis.org/articles/your_life_is_going_to_change_faster_than_ever_befo re.shtml)

The synopsis:

Human society and individual lives are are about to undergo the a dramatic transformation due to exponentially accelerating technologies. Discover what will happen in the next 20 years.

Echetlaeus
19-04-14, 14:55
I have warned you all, but you didn't listen ...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZHnvwc-x5M

Aberdeen
19-04-14, 15:36
I haven't been very active on Eupedia in the last few weeks. The reason is that I have been reading a lot about future technologies and started a new website called Life 2.0 (http://www.vitamodularis.org/). Feel free to join the Facebook page (https://www.facebook.com/vitamodularis).

Here is my first article:

Your life is going to change faster than ever before (http://www.vitamodularis.org/articles/your_life_is_going_to_change_faster_than_ever_befo re.shtml)

The synopsis:

Human society and individual lives are are about to undergo the a dramatic transformation due to exponentially accelerating technologies. Discover what will happen in the next 20 years.

Nooo!!!! I want to go back to the 1970s, not forward into a technological nightmare!

Maciamo
19-04-14, 16:15
Nooo!!!! I want to go back to the 1970s, not forward into a technological nightmare!

Technological nightmare ?

Angela
19-04-14, 16:55
Nooo!!!! I want to go back to the 1970s, not forward into a technological nightmare!

Me too...although I'm not so sure about the 1970's. :grin:

Engel
19-04-14, 19:23
Interesting thread Maciamo. Read the link but I dread the part about pin head cameras
being everywhere. There will be no privacy left

Sennevini
19-04-14, 19:54
Ah I miss my 90s youth..
Ok, I will accept a future without war, hunger and poverty;
but still, there are groups of people with political agenda's
leading to war, (see Middle East, Africa); those won't dissappear
even with upgraded armory; or will they?

Sennevini
19-04-14, 19:55
Would this all not lead to an abundance of
depression, identity crises and such for people?
Just wondering.

Aberdeen
19-04-14, 20:19
Technological nightmare ?

I know that these new technologies seem to promise a much better future for everyone, and I hope that's true. But the massive technological changes of the 19th century were supposed to do that too, but big business took control and used those changes to accumulate vast amounts of money and power while the living standard of the average person actually deteriorated. It wasn't until the 20th century that people's lives actually changed for the better as a result of the increased means of production, and those changes seem to have set us on a dead end course because of overpopulation and overuse of resources. I'm not sure what the downside of modern technological change will be, but I doubt if the future will be quite as rosy as predicted. Read up on what's happening in California, where a lot of the technological advances are concentrated at the moment. Because so much money is being accumulated by people who work for companies like Google, Yahoo and others, ordinary people are being pushed out of the area because they can no longer afford to live there.

It seems that we can't stop that kind of change, and it does have some positive results, but it can be scary. And in the short run, massive change often seems to increase inequity. Just my opinion, but I'm not the only one who thinks that way. According to the American media, some people have been attacked for wearing Google Glass. I wouldn't do that, but I can understand why some people dislike "Glassholes".

Templar
20-04-14, 13:40
I know that these new technologies seem to promise a much better future for everyone, and I hope that's true. But the massive technological changes of the 19th century were supposed to do that too, but big business took control and used those changes to accumulate vast amounts of money and power while the living standard of the average person actually deteriorated. It wasn't until the 20th century that people's lives actually changed for the better as a result of the increased means of production, and those changes seem to have set us on a dead end course because of overpopulation and overuse of resources.

Industrialization had massive benefits for the common people well before the 20th century though. The size of the middle class grew, many diseases were eradicated, food become much cheaper, etc. It was a painful transition in many ways but throughout its length, the industrial revolution helped people immensely.


dead end course because of overpopulation and overuse of resources.

Overpopulation is only a problem for a handful of countries, which also happen to be the ones who use a very small % of the world's resources (such as Mali, Niger, Afghanistan).

LeBrok
20-04-14, 20:05
Industrialization had massive benefits for the common people well before the 20th century though. The size of the middle class grew, many diseases were eradicated, food become much cheaper, etc. It was a painful transition in many ways but throughout its length, the industrial revolution helped people immensely.

I agree.
The "problem" with early industrialization was oversupply of labour force therefore dirt cheap labour and poor standard of living of working class. It could be compared to early industrializing countries like recent Bangladesh or India. Villages produce too many people, they can't find work in villages and face starvation. They are forced to go the the cities where jobs are being created. Employers don't need to care too much for their employees health or life, because of steady supply of people from villages and high unemployment.
So the problem in 19 century Europe wasn't industrialization but not enough industrialization for available work force.

LeBrok
21-04-14, 21:05
Good job on the article Maciamo, great compilation of futuristic vision.

I'll try to address what I'm not in agreement with:

The end of the capitalist economy
Almost any consumer product will be downloadable online and 3-D printed at extremely low cost at home, which ultimately will lead to the end of capitalism and the start of an unprecedented era of abundance, as Peter Diamandis of Singularity University convincingly explains in his remarkable book (http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1451695764?ie=UTF8&tag=eupedia-21&linkCode=as2&camp=1634&creative=6738&creativeASIN=1451695764).
3D printing has obvious limitations. So far it can only print thing from one plastic like material. Try to print rather simple things like a new pencil or a ballpen. You will get the shape allright but it won't be a functional item. You can't print led for the pencil or ink for the pen. Everyday items are compiled of thousands of different materials, and I don't believe one can put so many printing materials to the printer. Personal 3D printers will be limited to printing one material, plasticy objects, and probably mostly used in designing, prototyping and modeling for architects and engineers or artists, but not widespread in ordinary homes.
Also many big items, like cars, homes or furniture will not be achievable through personal (small) printers. Even if parts for mentioned items are printed in factories on huge commercial printers that will mean that factories will not stop existing due to 3D printing. It surely can mean that manufacturing will be rather local in every town, mostly fully automated by robots and delivered within hours (by drones?)by automated cars to your doorstep.



The first step is providing free ultrafast Internet to all the world. Google and Facebook are both working on different ways of achieving this, starting with developing countries where Internet connections are extremely sparse today, notably in Africa. Google'sProject Loon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Loon) plans to acheive this by launching high-altitude balloons into the stratosphere, while Facebook wants to build flying drones and satellites to beam Internet around the world. 5G mobile networks (coming around 2020) will be so fast (downloading a full HD movie in one second) that cable Internet connections will disappear. The merger that is under way between TV, computers, tablets, smartphones and game consoles will very soon result in a single universal type of device being used everywhere, all connected via 5G networks. In other words, telephone, cable TV and Internet Service Providers will all go out of business, as all TVs and phones will be connected through free mobile networks.

Due to physics involved cables might always be faster and more secure in data transmission than any two way radio communication. The reason behind Google and Facebook internet initiatives is to reach billions of new customers in poor countries. These countries don't have cable infrastructure they can use, and drones or balloons might be a cheaper version of needed infrastructure for high speed internet. Whether this is true the future will tell when these projects get off the ground. High speed two way communication with millions of customers at the time will require a big power source which drones and balloons won't be able to supply. What I've read is that current prototypes of Google drones take all the power from solar panels on its wings. Barely enough to fly continuously by itself with no room to supply excess power to communication equipment.
This technology will require thousands of drones flying over Africa when finally works and become popular. Although with this number of new technology of expensive drones perhaps it will be cheaper to lay down the cables to every african house. Especially when robots will do production and laying the cables.

Having said that, I'm excited to see that tech companies have visions and founds to pursue amazing new technologies. However there is no guaranty that all of them will be successful.



By 2035, humanity is likely to have achieved free electricity for all the world, mostly thanks to the exponential efficiency and decreasing prices to harness solar energy, but also thanks to 4th generation nuclear reactors (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_IV_reactor) and later fusion power (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power).

I'd say that electricity will be cheaper than ever but never for free. There will be always someone investing huge capital in new powerplants and someone building and maintaining electrical grid to deliver power to every door. Somebody will need to pay for this, therefore never free. We also should mention that giving totally free energy will generate tons of wasted energy. How many people will bother to turn off not needed light if electricity is for free? However we look at this, the free electricity might not be a good idea.

Aberdeen
25-04-14, 14:48
Although I'm not a fan of rapid change, I'll admit that recent technological innovations will bring some improvements, and it seems that 3D printing may have more potential that LeBrok thinks. I got this article from the BBC News website.

"A company in China has used giant 3D printers to make 10 full-sized, detached single-storey houses in a day, it appears. A private firm, WinSun (http://www.yhbm.com/newshow.aspx?id=45), used four 10m x 6.6m printers to spray a mixture of cement and construction waste to build the walls, layer by layer, officialXinhua news agency reported (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/sci/2014-04/25/c_133290171.htm). The cheap materials used during the printing process and the lack of manual labour means that each house can be printed for under $5,000, the 3dprinterplans website says (http://3dprinterplans.info/3d-printer-plans-news-round-up-for-wednesday-16042014/). "We can print buildings to any digital design our customers bring us. It's fast and cheap," says WinSun chief executive Ma Yihe. He also hopes his printers can be used to build skyscrapers in the future. At the moment, however, Chinese construction regulations do not allow multi-storey 3D-printed houses, Xinhua says. The method of 3D printing has become more widely used in recent years. Manufacturers and designers have been able to make everyday items such as jewellery and furniture, as well as more specialised objects like industrial components."

LeBrok
25-04-14, 16:45
Although I'm not a fan of rapid change, I'll admit that recent technological innovations will bring some improvements, and it seems that 3D printing may have more potential that LeBrok thinks. I got this article from the BBC News website.

"A company in China has used giant 3D printers to make 10 full-sized, detached single-storey houses in a day, it appears. A private firm, WinSun (http://www.yhbm.com/newshow.aspx?id=45), used four 10m x 6.6m printers to spray a mixture of cement and construction waste to build the walls, layer by layer, officialXinhua news agency reported (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/sci/2014-04/25/c_133290171.htm). The cheap materials used during the printing process and the lack of manual labour means that each house can be printed for under $5,000, the 3dprinterplans website says (http://3dprinterplans.info/3d-printer-plans-news-round-up-for-wednesday-16042014/). "We can print buildings to any digital design our customers bring us. It's fast and cheap," says WinSun chief executive Ma Yihe. He also hopes his printers can be used to build skyscrapers in the future. At the moment, however, Chinese construction regulations do not allow multi-storey 3D-printed houses, Xinhua says. The method of 3D printing has become more widely used in recent years. Manufacturers and designers have been able to make everyday items such as jewellery and furniture, as well as more specialised objects like industrial components."

It actually bodes well with my prediction that use of 3D printing will be mostly industrial and for special use. Therefore won't have an effect on bringing capitalistic economy to an end.

From my post:

Also many big items, like cars, homes or furniture will not be achievable through personal (small) printers. Even if parts for mentioned items are printed in factories on huge commercial printers that will mean that factories will not stop existing due to 3D printing.
My prophecy is already being fulfilled. Am I good or what?

rosalynhill
13-07-16, 15:03
Its threatening.

Valerius
21-02-17, 13:09
So, I kinda wonder where's the place for humans in that kind of future? Are we going to be an upper caste and the robots would be working class heroes? Lots of people will lose their jobs. In fact many people will simply be needless. It looks like the world will be torn - the post-Western robotic society and the rest of the world who will need years to catch-up or to refuse to be part of this. It sounds like a classic cyber-punk dystopy.

LeBrok
21-02-17, 17:25
So, I kinda wonder where's the place for humans in that kind of future? Are we going to be an upper caste and the robots would be working class heroes? Lots of people will lose their jobs. In fact many people will simply be needless. It looks like the world will be torn - the post-Western robotic society and the rest of the world who will need years to catch-up or to refuse to be part of this. It sounds like a classic cyber-punk dystopy.Don't confuse this future with Hollywood movies about future. They need drama for people to watch and pay money for it. Who would like to watch a movie about peaceful society of plenty? Right.
Robots will be nothing more than perfect slaves for all human, but slaves without emotions, so they will never demand equality and rights. There will be no poor countries or strong divisions in wealth. Wealth is about production of goods, and these will be cheaply done by Robots.

Imagine this. How would you explain our successful times to a person who lived 100 years ago in 1917, or 200 years ago, or medieval peasant who lived in Bulgaria? He would think you live in a fantasy world, with staff they he couldn't even imagine and comprehend, like airplanes, trains, cars, phones, computers, vacations, hospitals, fridge, light bulbs, vacuum, all the new and clean clothes, all the food from around the world you can eat, life without fleas, lice and tapeworms, life without feudal lord who could kill you any time without a punishment, etc, etc. If anything, this peasant lived in dystopian world.

Valerius
21-02-17, 19:58
Don't confuse this future with Hollywood movies about future. They need drama for people to watch and pay money for it. Who would like to watch a movie about peaceful society of plenty? Right.
Robots will be nothing more than perfect slaves for all human, but slaves without emotions, so they will never demand equality and rights. There will be no poor countries or strong divisions in wealth. Wealth is about production of goods, and these will be cheaply done by Robots.

Imagine this. How would you explain our successful times to a person who lived 100 years ago in 1917, or 200 years ago, or medieval peasant who lived in Bulgaria? He would think you live in a fantasy world, with staff they he couldn't even imagine and comprehend, like airplanes, trains, cars, phones, computers, vacations, hospitals, fridge, light bulbs, vacuum, all the new and clean clothes, all the food from around the world you can eat, life without fleas, lice and tapeworms, life without feudal lord who could kill you any time without a punishment, etc, etc. If anything, this peasant lived in dystopian world.

I agree partly with what you've said - it will be great improvement, a revolution even. But it's not just about technological improvement. We're talking about the creation of AI. Yes, I know it's a question done to death by movies, books and stuff but never before in history we had such thing - to create something similar to ourselves capable of thinking that will eventually surpass us, as it was noted in one of the articles. It just sounds frightening. Also the problem with the people - during the Industrial revolution the machines were used in the manufacture, the mechanical loop-work and that's Ok, but in one of the articles it was noted that the robots at some point will be able to do almost everything, better than the humans and quicker - so that does not leave a lot of possibilities for the humans. It would (eventually) lead to some post-society with no purpose, at least for the masses. I'm seeing what's going on even right now in the West - lots of people living on social insurances, living pointless lives mostly on the internet, also some other people who would have different gender every day. I'm seeing certain kind of, uhm, spiritual death in the western people these days, missing sense of purpose, detachment and alienation. I know it's a big generalization. My point is that this kind of future will drive these processes even further as the people would plunge into some post-life where the robots would do everything. There's a similar situation right now, it's just the immigrants from Asia or Eastern Europe who are doing the dirty work in the West, instead of robots. It's just thoughts, don't get me wrong, I'm not an enemy of the progress. It's just that the progress and the changes always lead to some hypothetical problems.

LeBrok
21-02-17, 20:52
I agree partly with what you've said - it will be great improvement, a revolution even. But it's not just about technological improvement. We're talking about the creation of AI. Yes, I know it's a question done to death by movies, books and stuff but never before in history we had such thing - to create something similar to ourselves capable of thinking that will eventually surpass us, as it was noted in one of the articles. It just sounds frightening. Also the problem with the people - during the Industrial revolution the machines were used in the manufacture, the mechanical loop-work and that's Ok, but in one of the articles it was noted that the robots at some point will be able to do almost everything, better than the humans and quicker - so that does not leave a lot of possibilities for the humans. It would (eventually) lead to some post-society with no purpose, at least for the masses. What purpose do you have now? What is the purpose of human existence? I don't think these will change, unless you assume that work is a purpose of our existence.


I'm seeing what's going on even right now in the West - lots of people living on social insurances, living pointless lives mostly on the internet, also some other people who would have different gender every day.Most people don't work for many in any society on earth. Most kids in the west don't work for money till age of 20, sometimes 30. People retire after 60. Most people don't work for half their lives, and many like housewifes, crippled, disadvantaged, lazy, and others don't work either. Not working professionally is not evenement in our societies, it is more like a norm.


I'm seeing certain kind of, uhm, spiritual death in the western people these days, missing sense of purpose, detachment and alienation. I know it's a big generalization. You want to say that in Germany or US there is less work than in Bulgaria?
The way of life in the West is different what you are used to in Bulgaria, but it doesn't mean it is worse or bad. It might be something new, and something you are not familiar with, or even people in the west are opposed fast changes, and that's why it might be something scary. This is more of a function of human mind psyche when exposed to novelty. New things or situations, do feel right and can seem scary.



My point is that this kind of future will drive these processes even further as the people would plunge into some post-life where the robots would do everything. There's a similar situation right now, it's just the immigrants from Asia or Eastern Europe who are doing the dirty work in the West, instead of robots. Dirty and unwanted, yes, but it doesn't mean that the rest of society doesn't work. You wouldn't have unemployment below 10%, or in some cases below 5%, if it was the case. Besides, it doesn't matter who works and who doesn't today. Even though there might not be work for money in the future, people can still work and fill days with activities, as much as they want. I'm busy all the time, even when I don't work.


It's just thoughts, don't get me wrong, I'm not an enemy of the progress. It's just that the progress and the changes always lead to some hypothetical problems.Surely there will be problems, social problems too. I believe, one of new and long remaining occupation for people will be a "life coach". Who will teach you how to live, organize your day, be happy, teach new skills, play games, socialize, fill your life with purpose, etc.

I think, in the future people will study till age of 40, just because there will be more and more knowledge to learn. They will be doing a lot of sports and social games, to be fit, healthy and socially active. They will work around their homes, decorating, gardening, doing variety of arts and play instruments. People will travel around the world, hike, bike and swim or even go to space station. They will be meeting friends for dinners, lunches and activities. People loving children will afford to have many, and solitary people will have none. Robots will be somewhere in the background doing all the hard work. ;)