LeBrok
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There is a great setup for a perfect storm in Near East. All the elements are in place, the only question is how much appetite for a war all sides will have.
1. The power brokers, Iran and Saudis, are at all time high aggressive mode. They are already engaged in proxy war with each other. Shia Iran supports Shia Iraqis in south Iraq, Hezbollah fighters in Syria, and Shia fighters in Yemen. Saudis with their petrodollars support various Sunni groups in Syria and Sunni fighters in Yemen. To make things even more dramatic, Saudis executed a high profile Shia cleric. In response Saudi embassy and few Sunni mosques were burned in Iran and other places.
2. Russia, the friend of Shia Iran and Assad, joined the seen. They have fixed a military airbase and continue to send transports of military equipment. We'll see what they are up to when in full strength.
3. Russia and Iran are angry at Saudis for other reason too. Saudis keep pumping their cheap oil to kill the competition. Oil prices are already at low levels and still keep sliding down. For that reason Russia is in deep recession, and its economy is predicted to shrink 3-5 percent this year. This might turn bad for Putin, who as we all know, loves being a president. Disappointed and unemployed Russians might change their sentiment quickly. Putin can't afford to go on for long time with such low oil prices and unhappy populous. "Fortunately" he has situated his forces strategically in Near East, and might do something about this problem. I'm not saying he will actively invade or bomb Saudis oilfields, but he might influence certain "unfortunate circumstances", or use opportunities when they present themselves.
4. Iran just got permission from UN to sell their oil, for good behavior. But how good is this when oil prices hit rock bottom?
5. If something happened to Saudi's oil rigs, and their billions of barrels can't reach the market, price of oil would quickly skyrocket to 100 bucks and beyond.
6. US would have a hard time to pick sides. Obama just got a deal with Iran about their nuclear ambitions, and active support of Saudis would void his important achievements. As long as there wasn't actual Iranian army attacking Saudi Arabia, he wouldn't do much about this. In this case Saudi and Iran could shoot rockets at each other oilfields, for maximum damage to economy of the other.
7. The rest of this region is already in a big mess. Iraq is split in 3 and in war with ISIL.
8. Kurds are coming out the woodwork, arranging their own independent country, grabbing all Turkish attention, creating new alliances, changing topography of power. Turkey is the most scared of them in the region. Who knows how much force they will use to stop them. This might mean new and wider conflict in already buttered Near East. We'll see what friends Kurds have and who will rush with help in light of Turkish aggression?
9. Daesh in Syria will try to stop Assad/Russian/Kurdish/coalition forces in 2016, but it won't stand a chance. Their Caliphate will only shrink. Will they fight to the end, or perhaps they will "hide" in Saudi Arabia counting on creating Arab Spring their too, and new caliphate afterwards? As well Putin can decide to push them into SA in order to destabilise the country. Afterall, Russians are known of good chess players, espionage and international intrigue.
10. What about the Israel? Are Jews only watching and smiling when Arabs kill each other? Are they a bit nervous with this unpredictable mess, and actively help to make sure no Arab, no Muslim really wins? However, at the moment they are enjoying the low oil prices a lot, have a front seat in Near East theatre, and things are really going their way, even without their help.
11. Saudis are not in best financial situation due to low oil prices, but they still pump a lot thinking that they will outlast and kill competition, and at the end being last man standing, will reap rewards of higher prices. But the cost of this policy is astronomical. Last year SA had 100 billion dollar deficit, with 65 dollar per barrel oil! This year, oil being at 35, deficit can be even bigger. They are very rich in investments, so they can go about 5 years without needing to borrow money anyway, but if they take part in proxy wars, the grace period might be shortened dramatically. However, they might decide to do some reforms, like introduce income tax or cut goverment subsidies, to help the budget. This might turn to be very unpopular, coupled with lack of freedoms, and bring civil unrest, Arab Spring, and end to monarchy. Saudi royals need to be really careful between their proxy wars, oil war, budget, strict sharia law and happiness of citizens.
Is the perfect storm brewing in Near East?
1. The power brokers, Iran and Saudis, are at all time high aggressive mode. They are already engaged in proxy war with each other. Shia Iran supports Shia Iraqis in south Iraq, Hezbollah fighters in Syria, and Shia fighters in Yemen. Saudis with their petrodollars support various Sunni groups in Syria and Sunni fighters in Yemen. To make things even more dramatic, Saudis executed a high profile Shia cleric. In response Saudi embassy and few Sunni mosques were burned in Iran and other places.
2. Russia, the friend of Shia Iran and Assad, joined the seen. They have fixed a military airbase and continue to send transports of military equipment. We'll see what they are up to when in full strength.
3. Russia and Iran are angry at Saudis for other reason too. Saudis keep pumping their cheap oil to kill the competition. Oil prices are already at low levels and still keep sliding down. For that reason Russia is in deep recession, and its economy is predicted to shrink 3-5 percent this year. This might turn bad for Putin, who as we all know, loves being a president. Disappointed and unemployed Russians might change their sentiment quickly. Putin can't afford to go on for long time with such low oil prices and unhappy populous. "Fortunately" he has situated his forces strategically in Near East, and might do something about this problem. I'm not saying he will actively invade or bomb Saudis oilfields, but he might influence certain "unfortunate circumstances", or use opportunities when they present themselves.
4. Iran just got permission from UN to sell their oil, for good behavior. But how good is this when oil prices hit rock bottom?
5. If something happened to Saudi's oil rigs, and their billions of barrels can't reach the market, price of oil would quickly skyrocket to 100 bucks and beyond.
6. US would have a hard time to pick sides. Obama just got a deal with Iran about their nuclear ambitions, and active support of Saudis would void his important achievements. As long as there wasn't actual Iranian army attacking Saudi Arabia, he wouldn't do much about this. In this case Saudi and Iran could shoot rockets at each other oilfields, for maximum damage to economy of the other.
7. The rest of this region is already in a big mess. Iraq is split in 3 and in war with ISIL.
8. Kurds are coming out the woodwork, arranging their own independent country, grabbing all Turkish attention, creating new alliances, changing topography of power. Turkey is the most scared of them in the region. Who knows how much force they will use to stop them. This might mean new and wider conflict in already buttered Near East. We'll see what friends Kurds have and who will rush with help in light of Turkish aggression?
9. Daesh in Syria will try to stop Assad/Russian/Kurdish/coalition forces in 2016, but it won't stand a chance. Their Caliphate will only shrink. Will they fight to the end, or perhaps they will "hide" in Saudi Arabia counting on creating Arab Spring their too, and new caliphate afterwards? As well Putin can decide to push them into SA in order to destabilise the country. Afterall, Russians are known of good chess players, espionage and international intrigue.
10. What about the Israel? Are Jews only watching and smiling when Arabs kill each other? Are they a bit nervous with this unpredictable mess, and actively help to make sure no Arab, no Muslim really wins? However, at the moment they are enjoying the low oil prices a lot, have a front seat in Near East theatre, and things are really going their way, even without their help.
11. Saudis are not in best financial situation due to low oil prices, but they still pump a lot thinking that they will outlast and kill competition, and at the end being last man standing, will reap rewards of higher prices. But the cost of this policy is astronomical. Last year SA had 100 billion dollar deficit, with 65 dollar per barrel oil! This year, oil being at 35, deficit can be even bigger. They are very rich in investments, so they can go about 5 years without needing to borrow money anyway, but if they take part in proxy wars, the grace period might be shortened dramatically. However, they might decide to do some reforms, like introduce income tax or cut goverment subsidies, to help the budget. This might turn to be very unpopular, coupled with lack of freedoms, and bring civil unrest, Arab Spring, and end to monarchy. Saudi royals need to be really careful between their proxy wars, oil war, budget, strict sharia law and happiness of citizens.
Is the perfect storm brewing in Near East?
