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View Full Version : Thuringia - just correlation or causation as well?



Tomenable
29-01-16, 02:32
Something is apparently special about the region of Thuringia (Thüringen) and its vicinity:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/Locator_map_Thuringia_in_Germany.svg/190px-Locator_map_Thuringia_in_Germany.svg.png

MAP (http://s14.postimg.org/ilmb0axz5/Th_ringen.png)

http://s23.postimg.org/3th2vswu3/Turyngia.png

Based on:

Map from the recent study on Irish Neolithic and Bronze Age (http://s23.postimg.org/biopv521n/image.png)

http://www.eupedia.com/europe/maps_Y-DNA_haplogroups.shtml#R1b-S21

http://www.eupedia.com/europe/maps_Y-DNA_haplogroups.shtml#I2b

Promenade
29-01-16, 03:01
Well the only connection I can make from looking from these pics that I2a2 is highly prevalent in both Thuringia and Northern Ireland but then again Raithlin were all R1b and there doesnt seem to be any connection in where I2a2 is prevalent in north eastern Sweden. I will be interested to here what some of the more knowledgeable posters here than I have to say about this. I can't thing of any thing historically or maybe even topographically that would cause Thuringia to stand out for having high amounts of I2a2 or being related to the Bronze age Raithlin.

Tomenable
29-01-16, 03:17
I can't thing of any thing historically or maybe even topographically that would cause Thuringia to stand out for having high amounts of I2a2 or being related to the Bronze age Raithlin.

What if ancestors of Raithlin emigrated to Ireland from Thuringia ???

We know that they came from Central Europe, but not from which place exactly.

In modern Ireland there is 4.8% (almost 5%) frequency of I2a2 and 1.9% of I2a1.

By contrast, there is only 2.7% frequency of R1b-S21 and 5.3% of I1.

Please notice that Thuringia is also characterized by a low frequency of R1b-S21.

Maciamo predicted some time ago, that Bronze Age Irish were R1b-P312 + I2.

LeBrok
29-01-16, 03:20
Intriguing to say the least.

I would guess that I2a2 were first in Thuringia, as farmers before Bronze Age, then R1b IEs showed up in Thuringia and heavily mixed with locals. Then they moved to Scotland/Ireland taking with them some I2a2 folks.
Perhaps for a long time they had a very strong center in Thuringia, therefore keeping new R1b clade the U106/S21 away from this place?

I think, you might have found the spot, we've been contemplating about in other thread, where R1b IE have spent some time in Central Europe, mixing with locals and losing most of Yamnaya admixture, before expanding farther West.

Tomenable
29-01-16, 04:01
I think, you might have found the spot, we've been contemplating about in other thread, where R1b IE have spent some time in Central Europe, mixing with locals and losing most of Yamnaya admixture, before expanding farther West.

But with what "locals" could they mix there ??? Because Corded Ware had even more Yamnaya admixture. So mixing with Corded Ware would not lead to such a loss. Unetice (which succeeded Corded Ware) had just as much Yamnaya admixture as Bell Beaker, so mixing with them would also not lead to a loss of that admixture. See the "old good graph" (Figure 3.) from Haak et al. 2015:

http://s7.postimg.org/mbdfumhsr/Yamnaya_Admixture.png

(according to Ancestral Journeys, Alberstedt and Benzigerode were Bell Beaker, while Karsdorf was Corded Ware)

These fluctuations between orange (ENF) and blue (WHG) admixtures are strange (maybe distinct groups of "locals"?):

http://s7.postimg.org/mbdfumhsr/Yamnaya_Admixture.png

Tomenable
29-01-16, 04:13
BTW:

Irish Neolithic woman (M427312 Ballinahatty Ireland NE) in Eurogenes_ANE K7 Admixture Proportions:

Population:

ANE - 0.0%
ASE - 0.0%
WHG-UHG - 59.18%
East_Eurasian - 2.42%
West_African - 0.69%
East_African - 2.54%
ENF - 35.17%

It seems, that Irish Neolithic farmers were autosomally more WHG than ENF.

So during the migration of ENF from Anatolia to Ireland, their WHG admixture increased from 10-15% to ca. 60%.

Raithlin Bronze Age were also only 32% Yamnaya / Steppe, about as much dilluted.

I guess it proves that Ireland is far enough, that nobody can get there unmixed! :smile:

LeBrok
29-01-16, 07:32
But with what "locals" could they mix there ??? Because Corded Ware had even more Yamnaya admixture. So mixing with Corded Ware would not lead to such a loss. Unetice (which succeeded Corded Ware) had just as much Yamnaya admixture as Bell Beaker, so mixing with them would also not lead to a loss of that admixture. See the "old good graph" (Figure 3.) from Haak et al. 2015:


This is Bell Beaker territory full of Neolithic farmers.

LeBrok
29-01-16, 07:39
BTW:

Irish Neolithic woman (M427312 Ballinahatty Ireland NE) in Eurogenes_ANE K7 Admixture Proportions:

Population:

ANE - 0.0%
ASE - 0.0%
WHG-UHG - 59.18%
East_Eurasian - 2.42%
West_African - 0.69%
East_African - 2.54%
ENF - 35.17%

It seems, that Irish Neolithic farmers were autosomally more WHG than ENF.

So during the migration of ENF from Anatolia to Ireland, their WHG admixture increased from 10-15% to ca. 60%.

Raithlin Bronze Age were also only 32% Yamnaya / Steppe, about as much dilluted.

I guess it proves that Ireland is far enough, that nobody can get there unmixed! :smile:

Can you post modern Irish K7 run for comparison?

It is far North. Possibly farmers needed more "Northern" genes, more northern mutations form WHG, to survive. It was the same situation in the steppe and later in Corded War, more ANE and WHG admixture. Progress of farmers to Northern Europe was rather slow, therefore more time, few more thousand years, to mix with hunter gatherers.

Tomenable
29-01-16, 14:06
This is Bell Beaker territory full of Neolithic farmers.

Wait a moment - did Bell Beaker folks come to a "virgin territory" of Neolithic farmers ???

I don't think so. Corded Ware came there first, and only later Bell Beakers came there.

The sequence was Neolithic -> Corded Ware -> Bell Beaker; not Neolithic -> Bell Beaker.

Corded Ware culture once covered all of Germany, not just the eastern part of it:

http://cdn.eupedia.com/images/content/Corded_Ware_culture.png

Tomenable
29-01-16, 14:10
Can you post modern Irish K7 run for comparison?

Yes, I was mistaken.

It seems that all populations score higher WHG in K7 - FireHaired explained this to me:


ANE K7 and K8 are easy to confuse with each other. In ANE K7(the one on GEDmatch) WHG scores are much higher. 59% WHG in ANE K7 would translate to about 40% in K8. Irish Neolithic is normal for all European Middle Neolithic so far, except Gok2 Sweden had 48%(ANE K8) and North Italy had ~35%(ANE K8).

Irish Neolithic scores the same WHG as Central Europeans, while North Europeans have significantly more. IMO, this is important because it could mean most EEF/WHG ancestors of North Europeans lived East of Germany or at least had lots more WHG than Irish/German/Spanish Neolithic.

Here are the spreadsheets.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1684wMM_ZJFoxcxJXK0jkVgeGGEVl5Nw3-Moc_IFrlOs/edit#gid=1051326962

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x8pm8sVcHqceiNFJMO082kxaBF5ePr4__bAK05VQRFw/edit#gid=1138248510



And how much WHG do West Anatolian farmers score in K7 and K8 respectively? 10-15% ???


I don't know. Stuttgart scores 28% in ANE K8 and 35-40(can't remeber) in ANE K7. Anatolia probably scores something like 20% in ANE K8 and 30-35% in ANE K7. Most Middle Neolithic Euros fit as roughly 1/4 WHG and 3/4 EN-Anatolia.

So WHG admixture between Balkans and Ireland just doubled, it did not quadruple.

Tomenable
29-01-16, 14:15
It is far North. Possibly farmers needed more "Northern" genes, more northern mutations form WHG, to survive.

I don't think it has anything to do with "gene needs". WHG were dark-skinned, that's not a northern trait.

The reason for higher WHG is because farmers came to Ireland ~1500 years later than to Central Europe:

http://d10k7sivr61qqr.cloudfront.net/content/royinterface/12/106/20150166/F1.large.jpg

So that's 1500 years of additional mixing with WHG, compared to EN samples from Hungary or Germany:


Just not enough data over time and geography to work out where/when the extra WHG was absorbed. There was a large area through the whole of Europe to the north of the LBK band where farming came later after cultural transformations. Northern European seaboard from the Baltic to the isles got farming 1500 years late than central Europe - that is an extra perhaps 50 generations in which things could happen. There was a long pause of many centuries where farming expansion under LBK ground to a halt before a further lesser expansion under largely LBK-derived Lengyel/Rossen etc and then a further delay before northern Europe was settled. To work out how much WHG had already been absorbed before the Ballynahatty woman existed we would need samples from Britain and from Northern France pre-4000BC.

BTW - what "Northern genes" did WHG have ??? They came north from the south (Iberia) after the LGM.

I suppose that it is also possible, that WHG got admixed by North-West Africans during the LGM.

epoch
29-01-16, 14:46
It's the heart of the Globular Amphora culture and the Bernberg culture. But there is also the possibility that the present day Thuringians are substantially descended from the whole of the Suevian lands. Their Law was called "Lex Angliorum et Werinorum hoc est Thuringorum". There is an uptick of I2a in East-Anglia as well.

Let's go wildly over the top. Could Bell Beaker be Corded Ware + Esperstedt (Saxony, west op Leipzig)

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NoGN9ni1kms/VOSGkPjblNI/AAAAAAAACBo/ROwmMxVJFpI/s1600/Untitled3.png

LeBrok
29-01-16, 17:22
Wait a moment - did Bell Beaker folks come to a "virgin territory" of Neolithic farmers ???

I don't think so. Corded Ware came there first, and only later Bell Beakers came there.

The sequence was Neolithic -> Corded Ware -> Bell Beaker; not Neolithic -> Bell Beaker.

Corded Ware culture once covered all of Germany, not just the eastern part of it:


You mean nobody lived there in Northern Europe when IE came?

LeBrok
29-01-16, 17:27
I don't think it has anything to do with "gene needs". WHG were dark-skinned, that's not a northern trait.Adaptation to Low UV radiation is not the only adaptation to living north, you know. There is cold adaptation, food adaptation, metabolism, diseases, liking of hunting and eating meat, etc.


The reason for higher WHG is because farmers came to Ireland ~1500 years later than to Central Europe:
So that's 1500 years of additional mixing with WHG, compared to EN samples from Hungary or Germany:
That's another part of it.

LeBrok
29-01-16, 17:31
Let's go wildly over the top. Could Bell Beaker be Corded Ware + Esperstedt (Saxony, west op Leipzig)

Could West Corded be R1b mostly? Or they were quickly displaced by R1b who came few hundred years later and settled there?

Tomenable
29-01-16, 18:36
You mean nobody lived there in Northern Europe when IE came?

They lived there but they were partially absorbed and displaced by Corded Ware.

Bell Beaker came later and encountered Corded Ware - not pre-Corded groups.

At least this is how I see this.


Could West Corded be R1b mostly?

All supposed R1b calls from Corded Ware culture have turned out to be false so far:

- RISE98 is R1b-U106, but is too young for CW culture (dated 2275-2032 BC, while CW lasted from 3000-2350 BC)

- RISE1 is too low coverage to say anything other than R or R1 - a similar dubious/false case as M269 for ATP3 in Spain

- ESP14 is not R1b, but R1a1a-M198* - this sample is negative for SNP calls associated with R1b, as explained here:

http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread.php?5605-R1b-in-Corded-Ware&p=125343&viewfull=1#post125343


Mathieson et al are wrong. I1534 is not R1b. CTS11468 and many other R1b specific SNPs are negative for this sample.

I1534 has the following negative R1b SNPs:

L1349/PF6268/YSC0000231-
CTS2702/PF6099/Z8132-
CTS2703-
L1345/PF6266/YSC0000224-
CTS9018/FGC188/PF6484-
CTS2466/PF6453-
CTS2704/PF6100-
CTS8052/FGC45/PF6473-
L749/PF6476/YSC0000290-
PF6496/YSC0000213-
L1350/PF6505/YSC0000225-
PF6507-
CTS11468/FGC49/PF6520-
CTS12972/FGC52/PF6532-

CTS11468 is a mutation from “G” to “T”. All R1b1a2 (R-M269) have “T” in this position. I1534 has 1”G” read.
I'm not trying to argue with you, but I am wondering what it is you are looking at to get this information, the actual reads or some electronic data sheet?

Why do you think Mathieson et al listed that one as CTS11468+ if he was not?
I wonder how could professional scientists make such a grave mistake. Smal explains what they did wrong:


I am looking at the actual reads from bam files.

It is easy to explain.
A difference between Reference Sequence and Sample Sequence can arise in 2 cases
1) Ancestral (RS) -> Derived (SS) [positive SNP in SS]
2) Ancestral (SS) -> Derived (RS) [negative SNP in SS]

If there are no differences between Reference Sequence and Sample Sequence that can mean
3) Ancestral -> Derived (RS) = Derived (SS) [positive SNP in SS]
4) Ancestral (RS) = Ancestral (SS) -> Derived [negative SNP in SS]

Probably you know that Reference Sequence is a mix from the actual R1b-P312 (mainly) and G sequences.
As a result, the most of R1b1a2 specific SNPs belong to the variant 3. But in case of CTS11468 we see the variant 2.

However, Mathieson et al have recorded it wrongly as the variant 1.

So there is no any confirmed R1b in Corded Ware. RISE1 is unreliable, ESP14 was a mistake, and RISE98 is too young.

========================

Someone should notify Mathieson and his team about their mistake with ESP14, by the way.

Tomenable
29-01-16, 18:42
Here is what we have from Corded Ware so far (assuming that Poltavka outlier came from CW - which was most likely the case):

I marked areas of sampling (we have CW samples from these areas, plus one or two samples from Western Poland, but one of these two samples - RISE431 - is most likely Unetice culture, not Corded Ware; and the other one - RISE1 - is very low coverage):

http://s11.postimg.org/iktba9h5v/CW_Y_DNA.png

http://s11.postimg.org/iktba9h5v/CW_Y_DNA.png

Greying Wanderer
30-01-16, 08:54
guessing first for fun - reading comments second

Harz mountains

Greying Wanderer
30-01-16, 09:03
And if it is (Harz mountains) then maybe mining.


But with what "locals" could they mix there ???

HGs in the mountains?

LeBrok
30-01-16, 09:12
Here is what we have from Corded Ware so far (assuming that Poltavka outlier came from CW - which was most likely the case):

I marked areas of sampling (we have CW samples from these areas, plus one or two samples from Western Poland, but one of these two samples - RISE431 - is most likely Unetice culture, not Corded Ware; and the other one - RISE1 - is very low coverage):

http://s11.postimg.org/iktba9h5v/CW_Y_DNA.png

http://s11.postimg.org/iktba9h5v/CW_Y_DNA.png
It has to be a reason that autosomal and admixture parts of Corded Ware changed so much till our times. Their EEF part rose to higher level, basically doubled. The only explanation is that they mixed with Neolithic Farmers. We don't know about any big movement of population from South Europe to Central and North since CW times. So, the easiest explanation is that they have mixed with equal them or larger local farmer population. The farther West and South they went the more Neolithic Farmers they met and mix with.

MOESAN
01-02-16, 00:32
What if ancestors of Raithlin emigrated to Ireland from Thuringia ???

We know that they came from Central Europe, but not from which place exactly.

In modern Ireland there is 4.8% (almost 5%) frequency of I2a2 and 1.9% of I2a1.

By contrast, there is only 2.7% frequency of R1b-S21 and 5.3% of I1.

Please notice that Thuringia is also characterized by a low frequency of R1b-S21.

Maciamo predicted some time ago, that Bronze Age Irish were R1b-P312 + I2.

concerningdominance in %s the problem is that every admixture system gives adifferent result spite they could help - when combined - to pointsome things out.
all the way, all Late Neolithic populations hadseen their mesolithic HG component rising up...more in West and Northperhaps, not a surprise

concerning Thuringen and adjacentareas like Harz mountains, it has been anattractiveregionfor metallurists,attracting more than a group maybe: the meeting place of BBs (south)and Corded (north) with highlands locals - I think it has stayed atthe same time the frontier and the "great market place" along enough time after that, between future Celts and Germans. Beingjus East fo the Westfalen plain it could have been partial mixturebetween populations; H. HUBERT thought the apparent abandon ofWestfalen about final Chalcolithic could correspond to the arrival ofRound Barrows BBs of Britain, passed through the Rhine Mouth The COONanalysis of Round Barrows people in Britain does not contradict this:a majority of 'dinariclike' people closeto the BB people of Worms on the Rhine,+astrong minority of his 'borreby' types (locals?) +aminority of his 'corded' types.
the BBs of Germany known to ustoday are forthe mostY-R1b; but I was tempted to associate some Y-I2a2 to them, what isnotto say all I2a2 come from a BB culture population; but some ligneagescould havebeeninvolved.Vatya culture shows 2 (or 3) Y-I2a2 too: are they purely localfellows or post-BB from Gàta culture? toosmall sample it's true.
I think Y-I2a2 in some places is notautochtonous; perhaps it is in Thuringen? and was spred along otherY-haplos by late BBs and Tumuli cultures in diverse directions ?Basedupon what we have at hand now, Y-I2a2 seems having been present atsome level in Northern Spain since the 5000 spiteit is rather seldom therenow.It appears todayin some relatively hot spots in Northern Russia and Moldavia (andin Ulan in Catacomb context);Its presence in South Scandinavia could very well be linked to BronzeAge (tumuli there too, and some BB imput too).Weneed precise subclades for every hotspot, ancient and modern, to seewhich ones share or don't share recent enough ancestry.
Idon't know the precise culture affiliation of the 3 Irishmen. Andtheir true links with BBs or subsequent Bronze cultures.
Idon't think Y-R1b-S145/L21 was central among BBs men and BBs imputhas been light enough in Ireland compared to Britain. Butthe auDNA links with Germany could prove first Y-R1b were more Eastcentered before being partly pushed ahead by subseqent R1b clans,future U152 or future brother clades of DF27. The L21%s are not solow in Romance Switzerland by instance (small sample helas). Whateverthe uniparental male ligneages and their subclades, it seemsNorthwest Europe post Neolithic populations took a big part of itsauDNA among populations settled between Rhine, Upper Rhône andCzechoslovakia, what does not contradict official History. So ?With or without Y-I2a2 people ??? Waitmore ancient data.

&:concerning Sweden, the most I2a2 are in South as in Norway - thedenser hotspot is in N-E Sweden but swedish people say Norrbottenwas repopulated (Iforgot the date)by southerners. Foundereffect and drift?


& :concerning ancient Y-I2a2 what I have at hand gives :
ElPortalôn (North-Spain) 5000/4800 BC : Y-I2a2a - mt H3c (errorof datation???)
LaMina, Soria (North-Spain) 3900/3600 BC : Y-I2a2a1b2 – mt H1 megalithic (error of datation ??? reutilisation ?)
ElMirador (North Spain) 2900/2600 BC : Y-I2a2a1 – mt X2b
ElMirador (North Spain) 2900/2600 BC : Y-I2a2 - mt H3
ElMirador (North Spain) 2900/2600 BC : Y-I2a2a - mt H3
Csata(Hongrie) 2900/2600 BC : Y-I2a2a - mt H5
UneticeEsperstedt 2150/1900 BC : Y-I2a2 - mt I3a
YamnayaUlan (Russie) 2900/2100 BC : Y-I2a2a1b1b – mt T2a1aCatacomb
VatyaHongrie 2150/1900 BC ?: Y-I2a2a1a2a – mt T2b
VatyaHongrie 1750/1600 BC : Y-I2a2a1 – mt H11a
LichtensteinHarz 1000 BC : Y-I2a2b - mt H urnfield
LichtensteinHarz 1000 BC : Y-I2a2b - mt H urnfield
LichtensteinHarz 1000 BC : Y-I2a2b ? - mt H urnfield
LichtensteinHarz 1000 BC : Y-I2a2b - mt H urnfield
LichtensteinHarz 1000 BC : Y-I2a2b - mt U5b urnfield
theUrnfield men of the Harz in Southern Niedersachsen (close toThuringen) were brethren if I remember well so their almostuniformity of uniparental haplo's can misguide us.

MOESAN
01-02-16, 00:41
It has to be a reason that autosomal and admixture parts of Corded Ware changed so much till our times. Their EEF part rose to higher level, basically doubled. The only explanation is that they mixed with Neolithic Farmers. We don't know about any big movement of population from South Europe to Central and North since CW times. So, the easiest explanation is that they have mixed with equal them or larger local farmer population. The farther West and South they went the more Neolithic Farmers they met and mix with.

Agree. The Desideri surveys about non metric teeth showed in Bohemia the BBs males and CWC males were rather well separated between them and separated from the mean of their wives, these last ones being closer between themselves spite some differences - at the contrary she affirms the Unetice people there showed very less differences between males and females, so stabilization and homogeneization. So it would be better for us having more data for every place and every time to see changes in admixture martching on: here I become exigeant!

Greying Wanderer
01-02-16, 16:20
@Moesan


concerning Thuringen and adjacentareas like Harz mountains, it has been anattractiveregionfor metallurists,attracting more than a group maybe: the meeting place of BBs (south)and Corded (north) with highlands locals - I think it has stayed atthe same time the frontier and the "great market place" along enough time after that, between future Celts and Germans

Yes looking at a relief map the way they stand out on the edge of the north european plain like that makes me wonder if it might have been some kind of frontier.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Deutschland_topo_cropped.jpg

If the farmers initially pushed the HGs up into the mountains and miners later came to the mountains then the miner/metal workers might end up getting an extra dose of HG ancestry.