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Angela
01-09-16, 16:31
See:

http://www.archaeology.org/news/4805-160831-germany-justinian-plague

"Live Science (http://www.livescience.com/55939-justinianic-plague-genome-update.html) reports that scientists Michal Feldman, Johannes Krause, Michaela Harbeck, and their colleagues have conducted a new analysis of the genome of Yersinia pestis, the bacterium thought to have caused the Justinian plague. The researchers obtained a high-quality sample of DNA from the tooth of a sixth-century skeleton unearthed more than 50 years ago at Altenerding, a cemetery in southern Germany. The new study found mutations in the bacterial genome that the researchers say are associated with plague virulence. (As many as 50 million people in the Byzantine world are thought to have died of the plague between the sixth and the eighth centuries.) The new study also confirmed the conclusions of a previous study of Yersinia pestis, conducted by David Wagner of Northern Arizona University, that the strain could be traced back to China. “More high-quality genomes from different locations and time periods could shed light on the disease transmission routes and the rate that it spread,”

See also:
https://www.genomeweb.com/sequencing/high-coverage-genome-offers-peek-justinian-plague-genetics

"a German-led team teased apart subtle genetic differences that distinguished Yersinia pestis bacteria involved in a plague during that spanned the sixth to eighth century and the forms of Y. pestis bacteria behind the 14th century scourge known as Black Death."

"Results from the analysis suggest Justinian plague-causing forms of Y. pestis had significant divergence from strains associated with the Black Death, though the diversity of Justinian plague strains documented in southern Germany so far appears limited."

"Due to epidemiological differences between the Justinian plague, Black Death, and a more recent pandemic in China during the 19th century, some investigators previously suspected distinct pathogens were behind each pandemic.
With molecular evidence placing Y. pestis behind ancient and modern plagues (https://www.genomeweb.com/sequencing/single-plague-lineage-led-ancient-modern-disease-outbreaks), the team explained, there is interest in teasing apart genetic features associated with historical Y. pestis samples and characterizing pathogens with the potential for re-emergence from persisting reservoirs (https://www.genomeweb.com/microarrays-multiplexing/analysis-ancient-plague-dna-suggests-long-term-persistence-yersinia-pestis) around the world."
Here's the link to the paper itself.
http://mbe.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/08/09/molbev.msw170.abstract

So, perhaps there was a less virulent strain, and then it mutated to become even more lethal.

Well, I guess we know why the genetics of the Balkans changed, and I remember there were effects all the way up to Britain. Any place linked by trade to the Empire would have been hit particularly hard.

Why does it always come from the east? The Indo-Europeans brought plague from the steppe, and now this came from China and probably reached Europe by the same steppe route, and the Medieval bubonic plague came from the Mongolian steppe, didn't it? In modern times all the bird flue and even just the regular flu comes from China too.

I wonder why they didn't compare this to the plague found in the Indo-Europeans?

Gosh, people were worrying about sickle cell anemia, which is a genetic disorder and which you can't catch. The migrants carrying pernicious, communicable disease came from the east.

bicicleur
01-09-16, 16:50
modern medecin has found cures against plagues like pest to spread worldwide
modern medecin has it made possible for people with sickle cell to survive
both are not a threat any more
but sickle cell survivers will probably become a bigger burden for the west than plague threat
overconsumption of medecins like antibiotics however makes that plagues always remain a lingering threat
medecin fails to bring permanent solutions

by the way, the last plague threat, wasn't that ebola?

and zicka, how would you qualify that?
I guess it's different, don't you need mosquitos or sex to spread it?

anyway if already enough is known about the spread of Justinian plague, it would make a nice subject for an animated video

LeBrok
01-09-16, 17:26
See:

http://www.archaeology.org/news/4805-160831-germany-justinian-plague

"Live Science (http://www.livescience.com/55939-justinianic-plague-genome-update.html) reports that scientists Michal Feldman, Johannes Krause, Michaela Harbeck, and their colleagues have conducted a new analysis of the genome of Yersinia pestis, the bacterium thought to have caused the Justinian plague. The researchers obtained a high-quality sample of DNA from the tooth of a sixth-century skeleton unearthed more than 50 years ago at Altenerding, a cemetery in southern Germany. The new study found mutations in the bacterial genome that the researchers say are associated with plague virulence. (As many as 50 million people in the Byzantine world are thought to have died of the plague between the sixth and the eighth centuries.) The new study also confirmed the conclusions of a previous study of Yersinia pestis, conducted by David Wagner of Northern Arizona University, that the strain could be traced back to China. “More high-quality genomes from different locations and time periods could shed light on the disease transmission routes and the rate that it spread,”

See also:
https://www.genomeweb.com/sequencing/high-coverage-genome-offers-peek-justinian-plague-genetics

"a German-led team teased apart subtle genetic differences that distinguished Yersinia pestis bacteria involved in a plague during that spanned the sixth to eighth century and the forms of Y. pestis bacteria behind the 14th century scourge known as Black Death."

"Results from the analysis suggest Justinian plague-causing forms of Y. pestis had significant divergence from strains associated with the Black Death, though the diversity of Justinian plague strains documented in southern Germany so far appears limited."

"Due to epidemiological differences between the Justinian plague, Black Death, and a more recent pandemic in China during the 19th century, some investigators previously suspected distinct pathogens were behind each pandemic.
With molecular evidence placing Y. pestis behind ancient and modern plagues (https://www.genomeweb.com/sequencing/single-plague-lineage-led-ancient-modern-disease-outbreaks), the team explained, there is interest in teasing apart genetic features associated with historical Y. pestis samples and characterizing pathogens with the potential for re-emergence from persisting reservoirs (https://www.genomeweb.com/microarrays-multiplexing/analysis-ancient-plague-dna-suggests-long-term-persistence-yersinia-pestis) around the world."
Here's the link to the paper itself.
http://mbe.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/08/09/molbev.msw170.abstract

So, perhaps there was a less virulent strain, and then it mutated to become even more lethal.

Well, I guess we know why the genetics of the Balkans changed, and I remember there were effects all the way up to Britain. Any place linked by trade to the Empire would have been hit particularly hard.

Why does it always come from the east? The Indo-Europeans brought plague from the steppe, and now this came from China and probably reached Europe by the same steppe route, and the Medieval bubonic plague came from the Mongolian steppe, didn't it? In modern times all the bird flue and even just the regular flu comes from China too.

I wonder why they didn't compare this to the plague found in the Indo-Europeans?

Gosh, people were worrying about sickle cell anemia, which is a genetic disorder and which you can't catch. The migrants carrying pernicious, communicable disease came from the east.





Asian population numbers and density were always few folds higher than in Europe. Currently it stands at about 5 fold. By that reason we should see 5 times more diseases coming from Far East than from Europe. That's why it might seem that it "always" coming from over there.

Angela
01-09-16, 17:32
Antibiotics are the only treatment for plague. They are starting to fail against tuberculosis and pneumonia and even staph infections. If they fail against plague strains, MILLIONS could die just from passing by an infected person.

They're already failing in half of children worldwide, even for common, not particularly virulent infections.

http://health.spectator.co.uk/a-global-wake-up-call-up-to-half-of-children-are-resistant-to-common-antibiotics/

Six superbugs resistant even to last line of defense anti-biotics.

http://www.livescience.com/52935-bacteria-beat-last-antibiotic-defense.html

You can't compare that in any way with sickle cell anemia deaths. No one can "get it" from another person. Plus, as they marry out, there will be fewer occurrences and less strain on the medical system. It takes two copies to come down with the disease, don't forget. One third of Europeans died from the plague. It's like comparing a hill to Mount Everest.

I'd be more worried about the next outbreak of the bird flu. As soon as it occurs, they should stop flights out of Hong Kong or China.

The Great Influenza of 1918 killed more people than died during the First World War, between 20-40 million.

"It has been cited as the most devastating epidemic in recorded world history. More people died of influenza in a single year than in four-years of the Black Death Bubonic Plague from 1347 to 1351.

That's a little bit misleading, as this is worldwide compared to just within Europe. One third of Europe died from plague, as I said above...

Still...
https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

Ebola is a different kind of disease, and harder to catch than plague. With bubonic plague all that has to happen is for an infected person to sneeze or cough on you and you can be dead in a matter of days, even in twenty-four hours. With Ebola you need to be exposed to their blood or feces.

Like malaria, the Zicka virus is mosquito borne.

@LeBrok,

That's a good point. However, after the last outbreak of the Avian flue, which apparently came actually from infected chickens, they showed the conditions in which they're bred. Hygiene has something to do with it.

As for the plague pestis, I think I remember reading that marmosets, a rat type mammal of the steppe, were the reservoir from which it spread.

davef
01-09-16, 20:01
Bicicleur, its influenced by genes. The influx of migrations won't have any effect on you getting sickle cell. Besides, you don't seem to have any ancestry from Africa, the mediterranean (besides the neolithic stuff), or India so it's highly unlikely you are predisposed to it.

bicicleur
01-09-16, 20:22
Bicicleur, its influenced by genes. The influx of migrations won't have any effect on you getting sickle cell. Besides, you don't seem to have any ancestry from Africa, the mediterranean (besides the neolithic stuff), or India so it's highly unlikely you are predisposed to it.

people with sickle cell disease used to die
now they procreate
nobody will die from it, but it becomes an extra medical burden

SCD has become the most common genetic disease in the country, with an overall birth prevalence of 1/2,415 in mainland France, ahead ofphenylketonuria (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phenylketonuria) (1/10,862), congenitalhypothyroidism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothyroidism) (1/3,132), congenital adrenal hyperplasia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adrenal_hyperplasia) (1/19,008) and cystic fibrosis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cystic_fibrosis) (1/5,014) for the same reference period.


it can be cured, but not eliminated
it will rise further, for sure

bicicleur
01-09-16, 20:39
wasn't there a vaccin developped and produced in large quantities against H5N1 bird flu ?

Angela
01-09-16, 22:11
I think it's time to apply a little more logic here, logic divorced from dislike of the culture of certain groups.

First of all, the risk of importing lots of people carrying sickle cell genes is greatest if the immigrants are from equatorial Africa. However, if the fear is this intense, I guess you shouldn't allow immigration from Greece or Portugal either. They seem to have more of it than most of Morocco.

https://kidneysolutions.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/15799_sickle_cell_anaemia_map.jpg
As I said upthread, I guess you'd better outlaw Irish immigration too. They have a lot of cystic fibrosis, which is also very expensive to treat, as well as other genetic diseases.

There is absolutely no comparison between the medical costs to treat these diseases, at the level at which they would appear, and the costs of treating things like an influenza pandemic like the one of 1918, or, God forbid, a new appearance of something like bubonic plague if our antibiotics couldn't cure it. You wouldn't have to worry about specifically medical costs, because all of Europe would collapse.

bicicleur
01-09-16, 22:42
it would be interesting to compare the maps for those alleles responsable for genetic diseases (not just sickle cell) 200 years ago and today
but I guess the data fails

I guess the fact that so many native Americans died when Europeans arrived on the American continent was simply because Europeans were selected for certain alleles which the natives were not? how does a population grow immune for certain diseases without the use of medicins?

Angela
01-09-16, 23:14
it would be interesting to compare the maps for those alleles responsable for genetic diseases (not just sickle cell) 200 years ago and today
but I guess the data fails

I guess the fact that so many native Americans died when Europeans arrived on the American continent was simply because Europeans were selected for certain alleles which the natives were not? how does a population grow immune for certain diseases without the use of medicins?

That's a really interesting question,the answer to which I haven't researched, but I would think that over thousands of years the ones really susceptible would die or not be able to reproduce, while the ones who lived either were immune or had enough beneficial mutations that they only got sick? Then, it would be those more resistant genes that would get passed on?

As a child I got all of those diseases: measles, both "German" and regular measles, chicken pox, mumps, and scarlet fever. My husband got German measles, nothing else. When our son was exposed to chicken pox, right before the vaccine came out, he became worried he'd get it too, and it's much more serious in a grown man than in a child. He had his titer checked for it and all the rest of those "childhood" illnesses, and the doctor said his natural titer was so high he'd never get any of them. He gets maybe one cold every five years, has never had a stomach virus, and when he was about 35 he said to me something along the lines of..."I think I may have a headache...what does it feel like...I'm not sure because I don't think I've ever had one." I wanted to smack him up the side of the head and make sure he got a hum digger of a headache! :) He seems totally resistant to normal physical ills and to any kind of stress you can imagine. It's not human. :)

People are very different, even if all their ancestors come from one place, and natural selection acts on those differences. It works a bit the same with sickle cell anemia. One copy of the gene and you're protected from malaria, which is a scourge in certain parts of the world. Two copies, and the child is dead before it reaches five years of age.

davef
01-09-16, 23:40
lol I'm the same way but I did get Lyme! I decided to take a shortcut through tall grass as I was walking towards a football game and when I saw the tick later on latched to my right thigh I pulled it out with my hand. It didn't end well....lol

Im not one to say that I'm MENTALLY healthy...

bicicleur
02-09-16, 08:13
That's a really interesting question,the answer to which I haven't researched, but I would think that over thousands of years the ones really susceptible would die or not be able to reproduce, while the ones who lived either were immune or had enough beneficial mutations that they only got sick? Then, it would be those more resistant genes that would get passed on?

As a child I got all of those diseases: measles, both "German" and regular measles, chicken pox, mumps, and scarlet fever. My husband got German measles, nothing else. When our son was exposed to chicken pox, right before the vaccine came out, he became worried he'd get it too, and it's much more serious in a grown man than in a child. He had his titer checked for it and all the rest of those "childhood" illnesses, and the doctor said his natural titer was so high he'd never get any of them. He gets maybe one cold every five years, has never had a stomach virus, and when he was about 35 he said to me something along the lines of..."I think I may have a headache...what does it feel like...I'm not sure because I don't think I've ever had one." I wanted to smack him up the side of the head and make sure he got a hum digger of a headache! :) He seems totally resistant to normal physical ills and to any kind of stress you can imagine. It's not human. :)

People are very different, even if all their ancestors come from one place, and natural selection acts on those differences. It works a bit the same with sickle cell anemia. One copy of the gene and you're protected from malaria, which is a scourge in certain parts of the world. Two copies, and the child is dead before it reaches five years of age.

I guess another way to become immune is to grow bacteria inside your body that can attack viruses or harmful bacteria. That is what vaccination does. It helps for just one person, not for his ofspring.
But at the time of the discovery of America vaccins didn't exist, so I guess a population - not people - became immune by natural selection.
I'm not a medecin, I don't know.
I would like to know too how long it took the population to regrow after a plague. I think the biggest obstacle is that society needs to be reorganised after such event.

Maciamo
02-09-16, 09:04
As a child I got all of those diseases: measles, both "German" and regular measles, chicken pox, mumps, and scarlet fever. My husband got German measles, nothing else. When our son was exposed to chicken pox, right before the vaccine came out, he became worried he'd get it too, and it's much more serious in a grown man than in a child. He had his titer checked for it and all the rest of those "childhood" illnesses, and the doctor said his natural titer was so high he'd never get any of them. He gets maybe one cold every five years, has never had a stomach virus, and when he was about 35 he said to me something along the lines of..."I think I may have a headache...what does it feel like...I'm not sure because I don't think I've ever had one." I wanted to smack him up the side of the head and make sure he got a hum digger of a headache! :) He seems totally resistant to normal physical ills and to any kind of stress you can imagine. It's not human. :)


I would be very interested to know his HLA types, as these are the main barrier against viral and bacterial infections. Some types are more efficient than others. On the other hand, too aggressive immune system have been linked to autoimmune diseases too.

Maciamo
02-09-16, 09:18
I guess another way to become immune is to grow bacteria inside your body that can attack viruses or harmful bacteria. That is what vaccination does.


That's not the way vaccinations work. The vaccine is usually either a inactivated or weakened version of the virus or bacteria itself, or in the case of viruses a a viral particle or an empty capsid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capsid) (the shell that contains the viral DNA or RNA) used to train the immune system to recognise the pathogen and to prepare antibodies for future infections. When first exposed to a pathogen, it takes the immune system two weeks to produce antibodies, which leaves enough time to nastier microbes to make you very ill or even kill you. If your immune system already has the antibodies though, it will kill the virus or bacteria as soon as they infiltrate the body and before they can reproduce exponentially.

You never inject bacteria into the blood stream in the hope that they will attack other bacteria or viruses! Bacteria will always cause an immune reaction when found in the blood stream, and the most beneficial gut bacteria can kill you if injected in the blood. Bacteria can only be present outside the organs and blood, e.g. on the skin, nose, ears, mouth and digestive tube (which is basically a tube that passes in the middle of the body, but its internal wall can be treated as external to the body itself).

Angela
02-09-16, 15:14
I would be very interested to know his HLA types, as these are the main barrier against viral and bacterial infections. Some types are more efficient than others. On the other hand, too aggressive immune system have been linked to autoimmune diseases too.

Does 23andme tell you that kind of information? What would I look for?

Fwiw, one grandfather died of a heart attack in his 70s. All the rest lived into their mid-90s with no cancer, no major illnesses of any kind, no surgeries so far as I can discover...so nothing much seems to go wrong with them. He comes of tough people, physically and mentally...