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View Full Version : Dutch election fever; breakthrough of Trumpist in Europe?



Northener
15-03-17, 21:30
Today are the Dutch in a real election fever....the turnout figures are very high. People are standing in rows.
Within an our we will know the exit poll, the hottest topic is: will 'Trumpist' Wilders make a breakthrough and even will be the biggest party or?
Lots of people where not sure until they went out to vote on what party they want to vote. Great electoral shifts are predicted....
Trending for the other elections in Europe, like in France or Germany?

Sile
16-03-17, 06:53
Today are the Dutch in a real election fever....the turnout figures are very high. People are standing in rows.
Within an our we will know the exit poll, the hottest topic is: will 'Trumpist' Wilders make a breakthrough and even will be the biggest party or?
Lots of people where not sure until they went out to vote on what party they want to vote. Great electoral shifts are predicted....
Trending for the other elections in Europe, like in France or Germany?

41 seats rutte to 15 wilders last election is too much to make up

rutte lost 10 seats and wilders gained only 4 in this election ..................big winner as I was told by my wife's dutch friend is that the "frisian" party gained 16 and is now running second to rutte

LeBrok
16-03-17, 06:55
Trumpist didn't win. Uplifting!

Maciamo
16-03-17, 09:40
I am quite pleased with the results. The right liberals lost a few seats but stay ahead as the first party. Geert Wilder's PVV didn't gain nearly as many seats as expected. The big loser is the Labour Party, which lost 29 of its 35 seats. 10 of them went to the Green Party, which jumped from 4 to 14 seats. The centrist party Democrats 66 grabbed 7 more seats to reach 19 in total.

bicicleur
16-03-17, 11:21
still polarisation and provocation by both Wilders, Turkish Erdogan supporters and Islamists in the Netherlands will stay - as elsewhere in Europe
it's a problem that has been neglected and denied by political correctness for to long
proactive measures 10 or 15 years ago could have avoided this, but now it is to late

bicicleur
16-03-17, 13:46
after Trump effect on Wall Street, today we have Rutten effect on European stock markets
both are positive

there is no need for polarisation
but it is positive that certain things have been said which the political establishment has ignored by a 'reductio ad Hitlerum' for such a long time

Northener
16-03-17, 15:52
41 seats rutte to 15 wilders last election is too much to make up

rutte lost 10 seats and wilders gained only 4 in this election ..................big winner as I was told by my wife's dutch friend is that the "frisian" party gained 16 and is now running second to rutte

There is only one Frisian party Sile that's the Fryske Nationale Party, this party is only active in the province of....of course Friesland.

The big winner is the Dutch green-left party, from 4 to 14 (exit poll 16 indeed). Leaded by Jesse Klaver a kind of Trudeau!

Northener
16-03-17, 16:08
I am quite pleased with the results. The right liberals lost a few seats but stay ahead as the first party. Geert Wilder's PVV didn't gain nearly as many seats as expected. The big loser is the Labour Party, which lost 29 of its 35 seats. 10 of them went to the Green Party, which jumped from 4 to 14 seats. The centrist party Democrats 66 grabbed 7 more seats to reach 19 in total.

Indeed the biggest thing is, 'Trumpist' Wilders, initially in the lead in every poll, has lost, the upswing of populist right in Europe stopped?
Lots of comments explain the lost of WIlders partly because of the presidential bonus for Rutte's right liberal party in the the Hague-Ankara affair. And because people were afraid of Trumpist kind of blunt moves when Wilders would be in power.

But underneath we see a complete transition of the political landscape. The tradition of the big "people party's" like CDU and SPD in Germany, Labour and Conservatives in the UK and the Democrats and Republicans in the US, this tradition is almost lost in the Netherlands. In the earlier days the christ-democrats and social-democrats could score 40 a 50 seats of the 150 seats in parliament. Nowadays we have 13 parties represented! One with about 30 seats. And the rest 20 seats and far below....

All niches.... Postmodernism?

Maciamo
16-03-17, 17:12
But underneath we see a complete transition of the political landscape. The tradition of the big "people party's" like CDU and SPD in Germany, Labour and Conservatives in the UK and the Democrats and Republicans in the US, this tradition is almost lost in the Netherlands. In the earlier days the christ-democrats and social-democrats could score 40 a 50 seats of the 150 seats in parliament. Nowadays we have 13 parties represented! One with about 30 seats. And the rest 20 seats and far below....


This tradition of a few big parties has long been lost in the Netherlands. There were already 9 parties with seats a the parliament. Now there are 13. But all the 7 parties who scored at least 5% of the votes already had several seats before, at least for the last 20 years, or since 2006 for Geert Wilders's PVV as this is when it was founded. The PVV scored 24 seats in 2010, 4 more than yesterday, so it cannot be seen as an upsurge of populism either.

Northener
16-03-17, 17:23
This tradition of a few big parties has long been lost in the Netherlands. There were already 9 parties with seats a the parliament. Now there are 13. But all the 7 parties who scored at least 5% of the votes already had several seats before, at least for the last 20 years, or since 2006 for Geert Wilders's PVV as this is when it was founded.

No not all true, ok still long in decline, but it was most of the times possible to govern with two or three parties (with a few exceptions). The last one was a two parties coalition. That isn't possible anymore.
There where only two real "people party's"in the classical way, aimed to be a glue between different social classes : CDA (like the CDU in germany), formed out of the earlier catholic and protestant parties and the PvdA, Dutch Labour.

The decline of the CDA was the first, during the last election they recovered, but not on to the old "people party" level.
The last election is dramatic for the second party the PvdA, back to nine seats, 7th party in the Netherlands.

I guess that nowhere in Norhwestern Europe the decline of the "people party" has been so big....

bicicleur
16-03-17, 17:36
No not all true, ok still long in decline, but it was most of the times possible to govern with two or three parties (with a few exceptions). The last one was a two parties coalition. That isn't possible anymore.
There where only two real "people party's"in the classical way, aimed to be a glue between different social classes : CDA (like the CDU in germany), formed out of the earlier catholic and protestant parties and the PvdA, Dutch Labour.

The decline of the CDA was the first, during the last election they recovered, but not on to the old "people party" level.
The last election is dramatic for the second party the PvdA, back to nine seats, 7th party in the Netherlands.

I guess that nowhere in Norhwestern Europe the decline of the "people party" has been so big....

still looking for a valid alternative for the traditional politics, both in Europe and US
it's a negative story
people know what they don't want any more, but still no valid alternative

sparkey
16-03-17, 20:12
Wilders has gone too far right. He was once a viable coalition partner to the VVD party that he once belonged to, but those days are long gone. He's beyond Trump, with proposals to ban the Koran, among other things. I think that the Dutch recognized that, and Rutte captured a lot of the Dutch right by playing the Turkey situation correctly.

Honestly, the Dutch should be happy with Rutte anyway. The Netherlands have done quite well under his leadership. I can't think of a world leader who is more competent, TBH. And even though his party lost seats, the new likely coalition partners CDA and D66 should be more cooperative than PvdA was.

Northener
22-03-17, 18:56
Wilders has gone too far right. He was once a viable coalition partner to the VVD party that he once belonged to, but those days are long gone. He's beyond Trump, with proposals to ban the Koran, among other things. I think that the Dutch recognized that, and Rutte captured a lot of the Dutch right by playing the Turkey situation correctly.

Honestly, the Dutch should be happy with Rutte anyway. The Netherlands have done quite well under his leadership. I can't think of a world leader who is more competent, TBH. And even though his party lost seats, the new likely coalition partners CDA and D66 should be more cooperative than PvdA was.

Maybe the voters found the PvdA too much cooperative, many consider the PvdA as the typical 'Third Way' party.....


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sparkey
23-03-17, 01:21
Maybe the voters found the PvdA too much cooperative, many consider the PvdA as the a typical 'Third Way' party.....


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Correct me if my outsider's impression is wrong, but it seems to me that PvdA has a much more leftist constituency than CDA and a slightly more leftist constituency than D66, and the biggest beneficiary from their collapse was GL. So although PvdA were certainly punished by people who normally would vote for them, typical CDA and D66 voters are less likely to punish those parties for cooperating with VVD than typical PvdA voters are to punish PvdA for cooperating with VVD.

Northener
23-03-17, 11:35
Correct me if my outsider's impression is wrong, but it seems to me that PvdA has a much more leftist constituency than CDA and a slightly more leftist constituency than D66, and the biggest beneficiary from their collapse was GL. So although PvdA were certainly punished by people who normally would vote for them, typical CDA and D66 voters are less likely to punish those parties for cooperating with VVD than typical PvdA voters are to punish PvdA for cooperating with VVD.

From that perspective, indeed I guess so. Your knowledge of Dutch politics is quite good! (Dutch people are, in some way, always surprised by that [emoji6]


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