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View Full Version : Future population trends from statistics: Hans Rosling



Angela
18-03-17, 17:33
See:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-39211144

Why bedrooms are driving economies

Total fertility rates

Population growth in Africa

People living longer

How Asian women are calling the shots

What he doesn't talk about is the Muslim "population bomb".

Boreas
18-03-17, 18:34
What he doesn't talk about is the Muslim "population bomb".

That's just a European fantasy. I am talking as 30 years old single male Turkish citizen. I am agnostic but this trend is common also in all Turkey. Many Muslim countries as Turkey and Iran has stable population now.

The problem is decreasing of population in some regions and the main bomb is Africa.

bicicleur
18-03-17, 18:38
That's just a European fantasy. I am talking as 30 years old single male Turkish citizen. I am agnostic but this trend is common also in all Turkey. Many Muslim countries as Turkey and Iran has stable population now.

The problem is decreasing of population in some regions and the main bomb is Africa.

Erdogan surely would like to load that bomb.
And as far as I can see, the least integrated Muslims in Europe are the ones which consider most often their wives as breeding machines.

For most parts of Europe a slight population decrease would be beneficial.
Choices will have to be made though what can be the cost for extending lives of old worn out people with low quality of life and very high maintenance costs.

Angela
18-03-17, 19:58
That's just a European fantasy. I am talking as 30 years old single male Turkish citizen. I am agnostic but this trend is common also in all Turkey. Many Muslim countries as Turkey and Iran has stable population now.

The problem is decreasing of population in some regions and the main bomb is Africa.

I think Bicicleur has a point, Boreas. Erdogan has certainly said things like that.

I've never been to Turkey myself (although I really want to go), but from what I've heard Turkey is quite a bit less "secular" today than it was even ten years ago, even in things like wearing the hijab.

Do you have any data about fertility rates in different countries in the Muslim world and whether the total number of children per woman has gone down substantially? I thought one of the huge problems in some parts of the Near East was how large a percentage of the population was composed of people under 18 or 21.

last-resort
20-04-17, 12:28
See:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-39211144

Why bedrooms are driving economies
Total fertility rates
Population growth in Africa
People living longer
How Asian women are calling the shots
What he doesn't talk about is the Muslim "population bomb". Perhaps Hans Rosling is correct on the near term, that population drives growth, but that is already outdated. Productivity in a modern society is fed by working smarter resulting in less workforce per unit of production. So, fewer workers are needed. At some point there is a clear excess of workers. That will be soon. Japan which has had a 'we are not reproducing enough to replace us' trend for some time, may in fact be in a better position than reproducing societies in a few more years.

Automation and robotics are somewhat limited by the prevailing wage of those workers it is intended to replace. But the threshold of when it is economically viable to switch to robotics is lower than it might be obvious. A machine needs limited downtime. It doesn't need sleep, doesn't need a toilet break, doesn't need off to attend a funeral or wedding, doesn't need a 'mental health day off'. The trend is here and will increase. And it will feed itself. Machines will be (already are) designed to self-diagnose problems, will be modular in design to permit incremental replacements and upgrades, and will be designed for robots to do what the robot cannot do for itself economically (meaning that a specialized robot can wander among a group of robots more economically than building in those maintenance features in each 'floor' robot).

So countries like India and China, and those in Africa may face tough times. As people gain ground economically they have fewer children, yes. But at the same time, there is less need for non-skilled labor, and skilled labor demand shrinks as automation increases. So there is a timing issue - a major timing issue just ahead. In the US, robotic trucks are only a few years away. Perhaps in 10 years, 10-20% of over the road (long distance) trucks will be robotic. The trend will relentlessly increase. These are fairly well paying middle class jobs gone.

Boreas
20-04-17, 21:08
I think Bicicleur has a point, Boreas. Erdogan has certainly said things like that.

I've never been to Turkey myself (although I really want to go), but from what I've heard Turkey is quite a bit less "secular" today than it was even ten years ago, even in things like wearing the hijab.

Do you have any data about fertility rates in different countries in the Muslim world and whether the total number of children per woman has gone down substantially? I thought one of the huge problems in some parts of the Near East was how large a percentage of the population was composed of people under 18 or 21.

It seems that your view belongs to previous Millennium.

https://flipchartfairytales.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/median-ages-in-europe-1960-2060-imgur.gif?w=662https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/86/Total_Fertility_Rate%2C_1950_-_2100%2C_World_Population_Prospects_2015%2C_United _Nations.gif

LeBrok
21-04-17, 02:52
As soon as a country get rich and women get their rights and choices, fertility rate is dropping down quickly. Let's make the whole world rich!