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bicicleur
10-08-18, 13:14
as predicted, the Turkish lira is crashing, thanks to Erdogan

this is what he has to say :

https://www.turkishminute.com/2018/08/10/erdogan-if-they-have-their-dollars-we-have-our-god/

congratulations, Turkish voters

Angela
11-08-18, 03:57
I doubt that the population in general will be quite so sanguine as he is.

Let's not forget, too, that even with all the corruption that undoubtedly took place Erdogan didn't win by very much. An awful lot of innocent people are also paying the price.

Yetos
11-08-18, 07:37
it is much bigger the problem,

this September is very hot,
minister for commerce of USA is coming to Balkans,

Balkans suffer a lot due to embargo to Russian Fed,
and lot of corruption,
just look what happened yesterday at Romania,
the domino effects of Arab spring are coming to balkans,.

anyway, day by day I admire Erdogan,
for he represents the state independence and autonomy.
on contradictory to my govermement,
who becomed, the 'YES SIR' boys.

about 250 mill Euro per year lost my country due to embergo with Russia,
and after the late case of 'spies everywhere' is expected to lose the biggest absorver of agricultural products
and about 2 million tourists of quie good quality.
meaning another damage of about 300 mill of EΥΡΩ.
things are much complicated.

bicicleur
11-08-18, 11:01
Erdogan won the election in Europe, not in Tyrkey.
He is very popular among Belgian and other European Turks. They have voting rights in Turkey.
He is funding all kinds of shady organisations in Europe that awakens nationalistic feelings amongst European Turks.
5 years ago Turks in Europe wanted to integrate. Not any more now, they feel Turk, not European, and they believe Turks are superior to Europeans.

bicicleur
11-08-18, 11:08
look at the Turkish economic history
it's a continuous 'boom and bust' cycle, every bust is preceded by hyperinflation
last hyperinflation in Turkey was about 20 years ago
I remember very well, I was facing heavy competition from the Turks in my bussiness then
but they all went bust because hyperinflation punished their megalomania
it is inherent to the Turkish economy, not to Erdogan, 20 years ago he was not there
but it is caused by how the political leaders behave in Turkey, and how the voters react to them

davef
11-08-18, 12:45
So you can spend years away from turkey and still have voting rights there? That's retarded

exceededminimumso..
11-08-18, 13:26
look at the Turkish economic history
it's a continuous 'boom and bust' cycle, every bust is preceded by hyperinflation
last hyperinflation in Turkey was about 20 years ago
I remember very well, I was facing heavy competition from the Turks in my bussiness then
but they all went bust because hyperinflation punished their megalomania
it is inherent to the Turkish economy, not to Erdogan, 20 years ago he was not there
but it is caused by how the political leaders behave in Turkey, and how the voters react to them

I googled "turkey economic cycles" and found this
https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2214845014000386-gr1.jpg
it's only from 2000 to 2013, but it shows big crises coincide with global/continental ones

source:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214845014000386

bicicleur
11-08-18, 15:52
I googled "turkey economic cycles" and found this
https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2214845014000386-gr1.jpg
it's only from 2000 to 2013, but it shows big crises coincide with global/continental ones

source:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214845014000386

20 years ago .. that was before 2000
Turkey recovered since.
But Erdogan made believe the Turks that recovery was his magic work.
It wasn't, on the contrary, he made Turkey crash again.

bicicleur
11-08-18, 15:55
So you can spend years away from turkey and still have voting rights there? That's retarded

It is.
And all European Turks have double nationality, they can't give up Turkish nationality.
Turkish nationality means all young men have to service in the Turkish army for 3 years, it's compulsory.
It made many European Turks not wanting to be Turk.
But now all of this has changed, because of Erdogans propaganda machine.

P.S. : our friend Yetos above told in another thread Greece is spending so much for the military, while other European nations don't make the contributions they've promised to NATO
the reason for this is historical : Greece was afraid for renewal of Turkish nationalism and felt they should be able to defend themselves in case the Turkish would try to annex Greece again

Yetos
11-08-18, 16:26
It is.
And all European Turks have double nationality, they can't give up Turkish nationality.
Turkish nationality means all young men have to service in the Turkish army for 3 years, it's compulsory.
It made many European Turks not wanting to be Turk.
But now all of this has changed, because of Erdogans propaganda machine.

P.S. : our friend Yetos above told in another thread Greece is spending so much for the military, while other European nations don't make the contributions they've promised to NATO
the reason for this is historical : Greece was afraid for renewal of Turkish nationalism and felt they should be able to defend themselves in case the Turkish would try to annex Greece again


not any more,
lately Turkish democracy passed the 'bargain' for military obligations,
you can serve few months, and buy the rest,

Turkey has the 2nd biggest army in NATO,
and among 4-6 position in strongest depending on the year.


The Turkish economical miracle is a strange thing,
and more complicated than we can imagine,
their main problems are 2
the different standards among 'EU certificate' and Turkish massive production
the hiden capitals and the black money or earnings,
which can easily make Turkey a very strong economical country,
yet easy to turn her to collapse.
part of the late economical miracle of Turkey was made by Iranic founds,
USA knew that and asked for Data and banking control,
amd also keep the embargo against Iran,
but Turkey did not, so they punish her few years after,
the rest about priests and imams wich are prisoners, or special guests is just the screen.

Anyway,
NATO has overpassed the H Kiss... era.
and is moving to Z. Briezinski chess mate move,
Arab spring was an end of an era, not a new start.
the chess game today is in East Europe,
Poland and Romania,
in order to achieve that they will de-industrialize S Europe and Turkey, and moved it there,
a good example was the strategic entrance of Bulgaria to EU,
Bulgaria absorved more than 300 000 working places and almost most problematic industries in Greece,
and also took 5 strong factories, among them Coca-cola, Φ fertilizers, ΒΙΑΜΥΛ bigest glugoce factory in SE Europe
in order to make a strong sourounding border to black sea for EU.

Turkish economy is a strange system,
it works like octopus, each foot is independent from other,
and while some are working good and to the right directions
some others do strange works.
in the next 2-5 years Turkish banking system will be controled,
and that is the fear of Erdogan, which is one of the most rich men in the world,
otherwise Turkey is doomed,
Either he enter under banking control by NATO banking system.
to stabilize their currency and economy.
Either they will live with other system, for example the BRICS one, or collapse.

On the other hand Turkey is and was a strategic of NATO,
borders with ex USSR, Balck sea rulling with USSR,
the most light and modern thinking Islamic country, (Kemalism)
and worked as a wall against Islam's foundamentals,
meaning Turkey of kemal worked as stabilizer among Western culture and Islamic fanatics (remember Ayatollahs, kantafi, Sandam etc)
something that today is not.

Angela
11-08-18, 17:20
Erdogan won the election in Europe, not in Tyrkey.
He is very popular among Belgian and other European Turks. They have voting rights in Turkey.
He is funding all kinds of shady organisations in Europe that awakens nationalistic feelings amongst European Turks.
5 years ago Turks in Europe wanted to integrate. Not any more now, they feel Turk, not European, and they believe Turks are superior to Europeans.

Of course it has nothing to do with the fact that they're treated like second class citizens in Europe. If I were of Turkish extraction and lived in Germany I'd be resentful too, and maybe turn to someone who told me I wasn't inferior.

You never put any of the blame for any of these problems on the European host nations. That's clearly totally unrealistic.

bicicleur
11-08-18, 18:41
Of course it has nothing to do with the fact that they're treated like second class citizens in Europe. If I were of Turkish extraction and lived in Germany I'd be resentful too, and maybe turn to someone who told me I wasn't inferior.

You never put any of the blame for any of these problems on the European host nations. That's clearly totally unrealistic.

please explain yourself
tell me about the incredible injustices the Turks have to suffer in Europe, and in Germany in particular
I'd be happy to learn

bicicleur
11-08-18, 18:43
not any more,
lately Turkish democracy passed the 'bargain' for military obligations,
you can serve few months, and buy the rest,



and how is it in Greece today?
has it been abolished too?

Yetos
11-08-18, 18:55
Of course it has nothing to do with the fact that they're treated like second class citizens in Europe. If I were of Turkish extraction and lived in Germany I'd be resentful too, and maybe turn to someone who told me I wasn't inferior.

You never put any of the blame for any of these problems on the European host nations. That's clearly totally unrealistic.

I really doupt about that,
Local societies turn to accept those who walk besides them,
and reject those who oppose the local feeling,

I live that here in my town, with the refugges from Syria and the immigrants,

Those who co-walk make progress and local societies accepts them
those who opose Local society rejects them,
and they make getto's where they inprison themshelves.

The main thing-problem in my town with refugges and immigrants (more than 2300 in appartments or open hot-spots)
is that they do not understand that beating a woman, even your wife or daughter is a serious crime here,
and especially public, at the local open market (baazar) we have plenty such actions,
and some even attack the police,
for they would have to pass the weekend at prison till Monday morning.
or frightening the people if they call police,
such behaviour is rejected, and drives the ones who used it to getto and be treated as animals.
but the ones who show respect to local laws (not religion, but laws) more easily accepted,

It is in the hand and the head of the immigrant to be accepted and treated as equal citizen,

few blocks away about more than 160 live,
they made a kind of getto,
nothing happened and all were quiet,
and many connection were done,
and although there was a kind of invisibile wall among locals
some even found temporary work etc etc

until came the 'heretic one' came,
who forced his wife and daughter, a 9 years old girl to wear a kind of burka.
that was like a bomb to local society and block,
and no matter police and international aid organisations ask him to walk public with no burka upon his females,
he insisted and started troubles, many troubles,
even kick them from appartments, due to him.

the immigration and acceptance is a complicated problem,
and if I immigrate and want to put my rules to the place I go,
then i am rejected, and is not the locals that reject me,
it is me the mistaken,

Eating in Greece is about 7-9 morning 2-5 midday, 8-10 night
if I want to stop the world moving, so I eat at 11 and 18, or force the other to eat at 11,
I am the mistaken who must be rejected.

bicicleur
12-08-18, 07:58
this is one of the natural allies of Erdogan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_Wolves_(organization)

it's a typical shady organisation
many Turks won't say they sympathyse with them, but have been caught attending meetings of this organisation

Yetos
12-08-18, 10:59
this is one of the natural allies of Erdogan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_Wolves_(organization)

it's a typical shady organisation
many Turks won't say they sympathyse with them, but have been caught attending meetings of this organisation

Grey wolfs are not only in Turkey,
but reach even china,
they also exists in kazakstan uzbekistan etc

The main think that we must realize is this,

Erdogan has a strong character and he is made of by the synthetics of hegemony, Ηγεμων,

the last 2 decades the main with such charcteristics was only Putin,
but the break of hegemony of Korean Kim,
as also the lack of such rulers in Islamic world,
made Erdogan the supreme defender of islam
a trully 'selected' by God (Allah) to rule upon earth.

the think that Erdogan missed is this,
Maybe EU has weak personalities, or puppets of bankers
Maybe Europe except Russia gets both economical and cultural destroyed,
very weak to resist even to slave merchants,
But Trump is not Obama.
Trump is Like Putin.

a non dialectal, an 'I don't even discuss about' character
which after years shows who is the leader of the pack (NATO)
If Trump manage with Kim, Erdogan is a piece of cake for him,
as concerns who is the strong personality.

It is like 2 roosters or donkeys fight in a barn, for who is the supreme or the master.

we realize that in Greece the last 2 months,
the anti-American feeling raised above 70%, in N Greece
and we even do not want Greek-Americans or arque with them.
the pact for Fyrom, as also the open accusations to every one oposed, as Russian spy,
turn the antimerican feeling very high in N Greece,
and we also realize how USA is going to rule the Trump era,

Trump is the whip master,
in all his speaches and posts and tweets etc ,
he is not bargaining with carrots, neither promises carrots.

he is going to bring order in the West,
like this, not with cooperation.

https://i0.wp.com/arnoldzwicky.s3.amazonaws.com/BizarroCarrotStick.gif


and his first enemy is not Erdogan,
but hidden black money, and 'strange bankers' like Sorros.

IT IS THE BIG TEST FOR TRUMP.
ERDOGAN VIA HUNTING PRIEST's GULEN FOLLOWERS, AND MILITARY ENEMIES. CONTROLS 99% of TURKEY. THE ABSOLUTE BOSS.
TRUMP ON THE THE OTHER HAND, WHAT EVER HE DID NOT CONTROLS, IS HIS ENEMY.
SO WHO IS THE BIG BOSS? AND WHO CONTROLS WHO?

that is the game they play now

exceededminimumso..
12-08-18, 12:20
https://media.giphy.com/media/KPTCBr8piZ51m/giphy.gif

bicicleur
12-08-18, 22:47
this is what Erdogan said today :

On Sunday, he said the lira's free-fall was the result of a plot and did not reflect Turkey's economic fundamentals. "What is the reason for all this storm in a tea cup? There is no economic reason for this ... This is called carrying out an operation against Turkey," he said.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/08/12/world/europe/12reuters-turkey-currency-erdogan.html

If you have any Turkish lira left, sell them tomorrow morning .. or simply use them as toilet paper.

It seems not only the Turkish lira is falling apart, also Erdogans dream is.

LABERIA
12-08-18, 23:49
Erdogan: How Turkey Sees the Crisis With the U.S. (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/10/opinion/turkey-erdogan-trump-crisis-sanctions.html)

bicicleur
13-08-18, 08:11
Erdogan: How Turkey Sees the Crisis With the U.S. (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/10/opinion/turkey-erdogan-trump-crisis-sanctions.html)
the crisis is within Turkey, and it's grown with Erdogans megalomania which endebted Turkey
Trump is merely the trigger
if it were not Trump, there would be another trigger coming for the Turkish lira crash

Erdogan refuses to face responsability
it's allways a conspiracy from others

bicicleur
13-08-18, 21:06
I googled "turkey economic cycles" and found this
https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2214845014000386-gr1.jpg
it's only from 2000 to 2013, but it shows big crises coincide with global/continental ones

source:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214845014000386

that was 20 years ago
I've seen these with my own eyes

https://www.leftovercurrency.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/10000000-turkish-old-lira-banknote-7th-emission-group-1970-obverse-1.jpg

Yetos
16-08-18, 08:54
yup seems like this 'strugle' comes from the 'who is the spy arguement'

A movie is about to be made about the priest, the 'apple of of Eridos' Andrew Brunson.

seems like if Turkish justice wants, can easily return to midnight express methods.

nordicwarrior
16-08-18, 10:09
I got a chuckle out of that cartoon. Be strong Yetos, we are all going to be making some tough decisions, soon enough.

Please say a prayer for Willie Dillie and her family.

Yetos
16-08-18, 11:53
I think it is getting deeper,
into the masses,

from one point the Big Boss, the NATO leader, the president of the 'big one' country
and on the other the chosen one, the last defender of Islam, and son of an 'ex-Big one' The Sultan of the Ottoman empire.

WHO'S EGO IS BIGGER??

the aftermath,


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SWtxHnOACQ

yet I think that the most stupid the late 50 years in balkans are in my country.

bicicleur
16-08-18, 16:43
there is a proverb :

'in the land of the blind, one-eye is king'

one-eye Erdogan

nordicwarrior
16-08-18, 18:31
I'm thinking Trump has 20/20 vision at least... he was able to see he was surrounded by an attempted coup and is now handling it in a more open fashion (ie. revoking Brennan's security pass). Comey and McCabe are out, Strzok and Page are out, many others are feeling the quickening drumbeat. He can see who is hiding and where they are hiding.

However, Turkey is Europe's neighbor and Trump senses who is best situated to address this issue.

The question is does Merkel have the stones to make hard calls? Does France? What about the British?

Hungry does. The Italians look like they do. Putin unfortunately does.

Yetos
16-08-18, 20:11
there is a proverb :

'in the land of the blind, one-eye is king'

one-eye Erdogan

in my country we say 2 motos for the case,

1rst is from Roman era,
Διεβη τον Ρουβικωνα, And Κυβος εριφθη,
meaning first Desicion is made, 'the die has cast', and 'Cross the Rubicon' like point of no return.
the phrase was pronounced in Greek by Julius (me favorite nose) like answering the Menander's moto "Ανερριπτω ο Κυβος'.
in Latin 'Alea iasta est'

2nd is
το ινατι βγαζει ματι.
in clear meaning, stubbornness gets you blind,
by exact word translation, stubbornness get the eye out

Yetos
16-08-18, 20:35
I'm thinking Trump has 20/20 vision at least... he was able to see he was surrounded by an attempted coup and is now handling it in a more open fashion (ie. revoking Brennan's security pass). Comey and McCabe are out, Strzok and Page are out, many other are feeling the quickening drumbeat. He can see who is hiding and where they are hiding.

However, Turkey is Europe's neighbor and Trump senses who is best situated to address this issue.

The question is does Merkel have the stones to make hard calls? Does France? What about the British?

Hungry does. The Italians look like they do. Putin unfortunately does.

i said in a previous post,
Russia has Putin
N Korea has kim
Turkey has Erdogan
USA has Trump,
all strong personalities,

Europe is weak, very weak,
more weak than we can imagine,

exceededminimumso..
16-08-18, 20:42
Putin killed or imprisoned people
kim killed or imprisoned people
Erdogan killed or imprisoned people
Trump.. tweeted? Weak

Yetos
16-08-18, 21:13
anyway the main loses if NTL or TRL (Lira) drops to 7, are expected less than 1% in EU banks,
except Italy Spain and Netherlands about 4% and France 1%
it will be like a crash on construction companies of Turkey and real estates,
meaning Erdogan who is the major owner of construction companies with shares to many of them.
surely will loose more than 35% of his personal properties, and might reach even 70% of his ownings,
the problem in Turkey will be just a reconstruction of economy and 'elite companies' with ratio 1$=7
but the problem will be very dangerous if reach 1$=8,
Yet the reaction of Turkish banking system manage to bring balance to 1$=5,82
which is under 1/6 a ratio cable for crash tests

nordicwarrior
17-08-18, 15:11
Exceededminimumso, I guess it depends on your point of reference.

From my stance... Putin killing journalists = weak. Kim killing his own family members = weak. Erdogan stuffing prisons with folks that disagree with him = weak.

I would rather not contribute to an international incident by commenting on some of the specific actions Trump has taken, but those who follow recent events will concur that weakness isn't a word most would use to describe this man.

exceededminimumso..
17-08-18, 20:03
Let's just agree that everyone gets savior they deserve

nordicwarrior
18-08-18, 12:13
The Savior we get we don't actually deserve, but thankfully He loves us anyway.

Donald Trump is my President, but I don't worship him. I do pray for him though.

Regarding Erdogan's situation, I'm thinking he may want to release Andrew Brunson. Post haste.

bicicleur
29-08-18, 20:43
it looks like round 2 started today