View Full Version : A look at human imperfect nature.

20-09-18, 16:52
Almost every day there is a painful reminder how hard it is for people to get over their emotions and think straight. Or maybe thinking straight is not humans' strong suit?

Here is a part of an interesting article:

Headlines Tell Us What to Think - And We Mindlessly ObeyThe reason these negative headlines are destructive is that they are misleading the public. A 2015 survey asked 18,235 adults in the U.S., Australia, and Europe if "All things considered, do you think the world is getting better or worse, or neither...?" Only 6% of Americans said "better," but that was rosier than the 4% who said the world is getting better in Great Britain and Germany, and 3% in Australia and France.

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
In a similar survey, only 8% of respondents in Germany and the U.S. thought that extreme poverty had declined in the world over the last 30 years (55% thought it had increased and 33% thought it was the same), when in fact, the proportion living in extreme poverty in those years (1981-2011) had declined from 40% to 10%. Similarly, most people believe crime has increased, when it has actually decreased, and most people think more millions die from war and terrorism now than ever before, but that's not true.
This is mostly due to the negative drumbeat of the press and our inner willingness to believe the worst.
Turning to investing, the negative drumbeat has convinced the majority of Americans that stocks have been flat-to-down for the last decade. A survey by Betterment Research from July 31 to August 6, 2018, polled 2,000 Americans over age 18 and found that 48% believed that stocks had been flat (had gained nothing) over the past 10 years. Another 18% believed stocks had declined. The truth? The S&P and the Dow are both up over 120% from July 31, 2008, to July 31, 2018, and the Nasdaq is up 230%.
Investor sentiment has been fairly low throughout this 9.5-year "unloved" bull market. Back in April 2018, a survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch found that 58% of global money managers thought the market had already peaked or would peak later in 2018. The majority think the bull is dead or dying.
That's actually good news. A bull market climbs a "wall of worry," and sentiment is a contrary indicator. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) has only polled about one-third bulls over the past three years, as this chart shows (the 29.35 bullish reading was taken last November, at S&P 2,585).

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.
Partly because of the negative press and partly due to normal human fears, a May 2018 Gallup poll found that only 55% of American households owned stocks - after a full nine years of bull market growth - versus 65% of households owning stocks at the previous market peak in 2007. The younger generation is even more spooked. Over half (52%) of those under 35 owned stocks from 2001 through 2007, but only 38% of that younger-age cohort owned stocks from 2009 to 2018, due to the psychological scars from 2008 and the unending scare stories from the bears and the downbeat press. Don't believe them. Dare to be bullish.


20-09-18, 17:13
Almost unbelievable, that one in 4 or 3 believes conspiracies over science!

Do YOU believe chemtrails are real? Study finds 10% of Americans think the conspiracy theory is true

The chemtrails conspiracy says that airliners are deliberately spraying chemicals
The theory holds that this happening with undisclosed, hidden goals
Some conspirators believe it's related to weather modification or mind control
However, none of this is true - scientists and investigative journalist say so
Contrails are actually made up of water vapor and are a byproduct of aviation
10 per cent of Americans believe the chemtrails conspiracy theory is 'completely true,' with 20 to 30 per cent believing it's 'somewhat true,' a startling new study has found.
The conspiracy theory is the idea that airliners are deliberately spraying a mixture of toxic chemicals into the atmosphere, with undisclosed goals that may have to do with weather modification or mind control.


10-10-18, 11:25
Hey. I'm new here. Thank you very much for writing this post. I agree that human nature is not ideal. But your data hit me.