Recent International Geo-Political Developments

Archetype0ne

Archetype0ne

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"6:37"

That something is cooking that much is certain.

What, why and how it will unfold, time will tell.

However, that map behind Bolton and Mnuchin does not look like a good omen considering:

1) The recent political re-kindling over the future of Syria between Russia, Iran and Turkey.

2) Recent developments in Venezuela.

Furthermore:

A) If that map has any credibility, EU is non committal, and for good reason IMO. Who wants a WW between trading partners?

B) Why is Japan omitted from the map? As if to say that is a given or...? Why is South Africa and Mexico in RED? For South Africa BRICS would make sense, but Brazil is obviously in Blue...

Just an interesting development that got lost over the notepad Bolton was holding with the notes " Welcome Afghan talks; 5k troops Colombia". However, that map IMO stores more implications regarding the back scenes of international politics.
 
It was an good idea to start this thread dedicated to the current geo-political events in the world Archetype0ne, well done.
 
LABERIA said:
It was an good idea to start this thread dedicated to the current geo-political events in the world Archetype0ne, well done.
Click to expand...

As long as I ignore trolo provocateurs since post 1 in this one, I should not have hypertension xD. Edit for clarity: Not meant @ Labëria, but referencing an inside story from a previous thread.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-venezuela-oil-company-illegal-idUSKCN1PN0YA JANUARY 29, 2019 / 10:50 AM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO

"Russia's Lavrov says U.S. sanctions on Venezuela oil company illegal"

"MOSCOW (Reuters) - U.S. sanctions imposed on Venezuela’s state oil company are illegal and Russia will take all necessary steps to support the administration of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted as saying on Tuesday.
Lavrov said the sanctions amounted to an attempt by the United States to confiscate Venezuelan state assets, Russian news agencies quoted him as saying."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...sts-as-pressure-on-maduro-rises-idUSKCN1PM1IM JANUARY 28, 2019 / 2:37 PM / UPDATED 16 HOURS AGO

"Venezuela's Guaido calls for new protests as pressure on Maduro rises"

"CARACAS (Reuters) - Juan Guaido, the Venezuelan opposition leader and self-proclaimed president, on Monday called for new street demonstrations as pressure intensified on President Nicolas Maduro and the crisis-stricken OPEC nation."

"Countries around the world have recognized Guaido as Venezuela’s rightful leader, and the United States vowed to starve Maduro’s administration of oil revenue after he was sworn in Jan. 10 for a second term that was widely dubbed illegitimate."



I am providing Reuters as a source in an attempt to minimize bias. Although that is nigh impossible. The first article has the Russian Foreign Ministry as a source. As to the second my guess would be Guaido's camp.

As for my take on above two articles. It seems evident the question Mnuchin declined to answer yesterday regarding an Embargo is de facto a reality. Albeit newspeak renders it to sanctions.

I would like to stress that although Geo-Politics can not be debated bias-free, we can still strive toward such a debate. For what does not get resolved with reason, gets resolved one way or the other.

 
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LABERIA said:
Backing Maduro, SYRIZA Wants “Political Dialogue” for Venezuela Crisis
Click to expand...

What has happened so far:

US has given control of Venezuelan assets to Guaido. (Not surprisingly, more and more people are protesting, just a speculation but there could be a financial incentive beyond just the future of Venezuelan wealth involved with the rising support in the protests.)

Just yesterday Maduro called for dialogue with Guaido to resolve the divide in the country. (Is it because without cash loyalty becomes more expensive? Such a call was completely unexpected just a week ago, yet it might be Maduros lifeline...)


Relevant reading material corroborating the above statements:

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/...lls-for-protests-while-maduro-offers-dialogue

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ory.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6313795d531b

https://news.yahoo.com/pressure-venezuelas-maduro-opposition-amnesty-offer-protests-002639744.html

8c984b314c7a9c7c53748ba31d05ec13cf3d9833.jpg



https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/i.../8c984b314c7a9c7c53748ba31d05ec13cf3d9833.jpg

I have got to say, I support EU's decision for a peaceful solution to this. But as we have seen earlier this decade not everything can be resolved through elections. As an example Palestinian - Israeli relations were getting better, that is until Hamas won the democratic elections. Then the rhetoric changed to one of "embargo Gaza". So despite democracy being a just measure of peoples wills, international relations seldom is fully compatible with democratic votes, or with self determination, sadly.

On the other hand, I could only guess the Hawks in the East and in the West cant wait to get their hands on another War... And I could only guess, had the EU fully supported the US course of Action we would be in a "global" war right now. I refuse to say world war, cause in the 21st century it seems proxy wars is where its at. In this proxy wars the civilians are the real victims.

It is a bit sad that me and Labëria have to keep this thread alive, when such a storm is over the future of Geo-Politics. This is beyond cold war now, this is becoming an open ended conflict.

Here, I am hoping they give Maduro amnesty, to set a precedent of co-operation, and fully nationalize Venezuelas wealth for its People akin to what Norway did with their sovereign fund. The other options I dread to think about.
 
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[h=1]Russian Mercenaries Reportedly Descend On Venezuela To Help Protect Maduro's Regime[/h]


image


Cossack organizations in Russia are quasi-official, semi-autonomous bodies of Slavic peoples that have historically contributed armed personnel to serve in wars and as internal security forces at the direction of the government in Moscow. Many of these groups continue this tradition today to varying degrees, sending individuals to fight on behalf of pro-Russian interests in conflicts in Chechnya, Georgia, and Ukraine.

“Our people are there directly for his protection,” Shabayev told Reuters, adding that the mercenaries were there specifically to prevent rogue members of Venezuela’s security forces from detaining Maduro. He also claimed that Wagner had around 400 individuals in the country.
Click to expand...
If this is true, Maduro has morally lost every right to govern that country.
 
LABERIA said:
Russian Mercenaries Reportedly Descend On Venezuela To Help Protect Maduro's Regime




image



If this is true, Maduro has morally lost every right to govern that country.
Click to expand...

Well at this point he needs all the help he can get. 400 Troops will not be able to do much beyond personal body guard duty if this escalates.

The thing is in May of 2018 Maduro "won" the elections. There were claims of irregularities, and the opposition did boycott the elections. But still on paper, he won, so opens a big debate about moral right to govern.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/21/venezuela-elections-nicolas-maduro-wins-second-term

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election

I personally support neither Maduro neither Guaido, I just hope Venezuelans get food to eat, and medicine to treat their sick. Pathetic how the innocent bare the brunt force of power struggles.

It seems material resources are more of a curse for poor not established countries... Such a sour irony.
 
Archetype0ne said:
Well at this point he needs all the help he can get. 400 Troops will not be able to do much beyond personal body guard duty if this escalates.

The thing is in May of 2018 Maduro "won" the elections. There were claims of irregularities, and the opposition did boycott the elections. But still on paper, he won, so opens a big debate about moral right to govern.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/21/venezuela-elections-nicolas-maduro-wins-second-term

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election

I personally support neither Maduro neither Guaido, I just hope Venezuelans get food to eat, and medicine to treat their sick. Pathetic how the innocent bare the brunt force of power struggles.

It seems material resources are more of a curse for poor not established countries... Such a sour irony.
Click to expand...
It`s not that i am taking side in this story. But it`s scandalous that he use mercenaries for his personal protection. There is not one Venezuelan man ready to protect his President? It`s a shame.
 
Archetype0ne said:


As long as I ignore trolo provocateurs since post 1 in this one, I should not have hypertension xD. Edit for clarity: Not meant @ Labëria, but referencing an inside story from a previous thread.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-venezuela-oil-company-illegal-idUSKCN1PN0YA JANUARY 29, 2019 / 10:50 AM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO

"Russia's Lavrov says U.S. sanctions on Venezuela oil company illegal"

"MOSCOW (Reuters) - U.S. sanctions imposed on Venezuela’s state oil company are illegal and Russia will take all necessary steps to support the administration of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted as saying on Tuesday.
Lavrov said the sanctions amounted to an attempt by the United States to confiscate Venezuelan state assets, Russian news agencies quoted him as saying."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...sts-as-pressure-on-maduro-rises-idUSKCN1PM1IM JANUARY 28, 2019 / 2:37 PM / UPDATED 16 HOURS AGO

"Venezuela's Guaido calls for new protests as pressure on Maduro rises"

"CARACAS (Reuters) - Juan Guaido, the Venezuelan opposition leader and self-proclaimed president, on Monday called for new street demonstrations as pressure intensified on President Nicolas Maduro and the crisis-stricken OPEC nation."

"Countries around the world have recognized Guaido as Venezuela’s rightful leader, and the United States vowed to starve Maduro’s administration of oil revenue after he was sworn in Jan. 10 for a second term that was widely dubbed illegitimate."



I am providing Reuters as a source in an attempt to minimize bias. Although that is nigh impossible. The first article has the Russian Foreign Ministry as a source. As to the second my guess would be Guaido's camp.

As for my take on above two articles. It seems evident the question Mnuchin declined to answer yesterday regarding an Embargo is de facto a reality. Albeit newspeak renders it to sanctions.

I would like to stress that although Geo-Politics can not be debated bias-free, we can still strive toward such a debate. For what does not get resolved with reason, gets resolved one way or the other.
Click to expand...
I've seen similar situations way back in Eastern Europe. Thanks to good man Gorbachev, he abolished communist dictatorships, and most of us had a happy ending. Unfortunately there is Putin now in power, who supports all dictators, like Maduro, around the planet. His support also includes wanna be dictators like Trump.
 
LeBrok said:
Now, this should help Trump supporters to understand how big of a moron Trump is
Click to expand...

Nobody saw Trump as an ideal candidate, far from it, but he at least came across as sincere in what he said he wanted to do (regardless of whether folk expected him to achieve his aims when confronted by the deep state, mass media and left-wing autism).

Given the choice between an honest buffoon and a cold, calculating, lying, morally-reprehensible, openly-warmongering career politician like Hillary Clinton I know which I would opt for.
 
LeBrok said:
Now, this should help Trump supporters to understand how big of a moron Trump is.
Click to expand...

Your name-calling won’t change anybody’s mind.

As a matter of fact, your approach Backfire Spectacularly, always.
 
Anyone can explain this:
(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47061509)
(https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...sident-twitter-work-oval-office-a8756356.html)

1. Trump told his Intel Chiefs to "go back to school" in yesterdays meeting.
2. Since January 1 he has had an average of 1 scheduled task a day. This means yesterdays meeting, was the only meeting in his Schedule.


We are talking about The President of the United States here.
It appears to me there might be some legal battle going in Washington behind the scenes. Since Democrats got the House, The President might be in some sort of "executive oversight", or colloquially speaking "timed out".

With all the fuss going on regarding WMD in Space, Venezuela, Russia Iran Turkey summit on the future of Syria...

Do you guys not think The President of the United States would have more than one meeting/thing on his schedule a day?

This is what makes me think things are much worse than anyone anticipates.
 
The best thing that could happen to Venezuela and to its neighbors, like us in Brazil, is that the regime gets weakened and discredited enough so that part of the military withdraw its support - still clinging strongly to Maduro government, which since Chávez (a military himself) favored the Armed Forces a lot (and again proving that it's never a good sign when the military get too involved in politics - we in Brazil should've learned that back in the 60s, but apparently we didn't, as they're starting to making a comeback, but now in a more "civil" approach). I don't think anything concrete and good will come out of a situation in which the country would have two self-declared legitimate government vying for power within the same territory and backed up by different international (and bellicose) powers, especially considering that Venezuela is now one of the most violent countries in the world and extremely stressed out, with increasingly violent politics. Especially if they hear the Americans and Russians a bit too much - as that "casual note" demonstrates - it's very likely that the current problematic situation will degenerate into a full-blooded civil war, a Latin American Syria. And Venezuelans do no deserve nor need that, and the problem of Venezuelan exodus is already too big and difficult to handle to be made even worse by a civil war. Negotiations after bringing the regime to its knees, and instilling unsatisfied parts of the Armed Forces to be bold enough to express their discontent, would be the best strategy.
 
Usually rational actors do not contradict themselves. Any such rational actor acts at the function of a certain goal... Based on strategy etc.

You can not have the same actor, without "multiple personality disorder" change their policies on the whim to their own interests detriment.

Now you have Bolton(5k Troops, Welcome Afghan Talks) implying "capitulation"(do not flame me for my personal opinion) in Afganistan and Syria.
But Hawkish in Venezuela?

The strategy/system of action is the same.

But why give up one wing, and throw in the other? (Unless anticipating a sunk cost in the region... in case of escalation, and focusing resources on the other wing. I hope to God I am wrong on this)

If what I am saying makes any sense.

Meanwhile every other article in major news is about WMD... "2 minutes" to midnight etc...

one side of the bias source: (https://sputniknews.com/military/201901271071854827-russia-us-sub-satellite/ )
Russia Detects US Military Satellites' Manoeuvres in Outer Space – Report by Sputnik

the other side of the bias source: (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...will-unleash-arms-race-in-space-idUSKCN1PC1XG)
Reuters : Russia says new U.S. missile strategy will unleash arms race in space

Make of that what you will.
 
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