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Angela
26-01-20, 20:06
I've sort of been ignoring it, thinking the media might be once again exaggerating everything, but doctors are now expressing concern that 1)China may have been and is under-reporting the number of incidents and numbers of deaths, that 2) contrary to original statements this thing is transmissible from human to human by air or contact with hard surfaces for hours, 3)can be spread during a ten day incubation period when no symptoms are present, and 4) it isn't dangerous just for the very old and immune compromised.

China expects things to accelerate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqUn71O0B6k

Until a good vaccine is created, there's really no treatment. Antibiotics are useless since it's a virus.

The only intelligent option is quarantine. That's what stopped the latest Ebola outbreak. Why the Chinese government hasn't banned egress from their country until they have a better grip on this is beyond me. They've already put huge swathes of the country on lockdown, with no movie theaters open, no public transport, schools closed etc. Hong Kong has also closed its schools.

Another thing I don't understand is the refusal to get serious about the sale of wild animals for meat. For crying out loud, they have cameras everywhere, and you get demerits for wearing the wrong clothes and get put in jail for making a joke about the leadership, but the government lets markets openly sell snake and other meats in, from what everyone who has ever been to mainland China tells me, exceptionally unhygienic "markets"?

The great flu pandemic of 1918, which like this virus attacked the lungs, leading to pneumonia, killed millions worldwide, by some estimates 3-5% of the population.
https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/2018/05/outbreak-pandemic-strikes?gclid=CjwKCAiAjrXxBRAPEiwAiM3DQnC5fxzb6g-d95qskzv_LIqtEFud_1Kmb-XjdIN1YYFj8G_z4-qQvhoCJjQQAvD_BwE

I think it's time to start taking this seriously.

Thin hospital masks are not the answer. Better to wear paper gloves and throw them out after you come inside, for one thing.

dominique_nuit
27-01-20, 01:41
It's about time! I was wondering why there wasn't a thread on this subject here.

This is article from Journal of Virology, theorizing that Wuhan Coronavirus likely transmitted to humans from snakes (though now it is clearly being transmitted human-to-human) ----->

Homologous recombination within the spike glycoprotein of thenewly identified coronavirus 2019-nCoV may boostcross-species transmission from snake to human
ABSTRACT
The current outbreak of viral pneumonia in the city of Wuhan, China, wascaused by a novel coronavirus designated 2019-nCoV by the World HealthOrganization, as determined by sequencing the viral RNA genome. Many initialpatients were exposed to wildlife animals at the Huanan seafood wholesale market,where poultry, snake, bats, and other farm animals were also sold. To determinepossible virus reservoir, we have carried out comprehensive sequence analysis andcomparison in conjunction with relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) biasamong different animal species based on the 2019-nCoV sequence. Results obtainedfrom our analyses suggest that the 2019-nCoV appears to be a recombinant virusbetween the bat coronavirus and an origin-unknown coronavirus. The recombinationoccurred within the viral spike glycoprotein, which recognizes cell surface receptor.Additionally, our findings suggest that snake is the most probable wildlife animalreservoir for the 2019-nCoV based on its RSCU bias close to snake compared to otheranimals. Taken together, our results suggest that homologous recombination withinthe spike glycoprotein may contribute to the 2019-nCoV cross-species transmissionfrom snake to humans.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jmv.25681

Phylogenetic tree for Wuhan Coronavirus, placing it next to Bat SARS-like viruses =
https://ncbiinsights.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2020/01/13/novel-coronavirus/

dominique_nuit
27-01-20, 02:12
Widely divergent views of actions of Chinese government. First video is very critical, and is of interest as it conveys the utter despair of a young Chinese man in Wuhan = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jcvIbWXc8g

Second video is by an American living in China, discussing all the measures Chinese government is taking to contain the pandemic. I very much doubt Western governments will be nearly so resolute and effective once the virus hits our shores (already 5 confirmed cases in USA, and I'm sure there are lots more, still undetected, in NYC alone) ----> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XL11O05lHw

Discussion by two Australian doctors of situation in China, touching on many aspects of the crisis ----> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM

Stefan Molyneux interview with person in Hong Kong, voicing suspicion that panepidemic caused by bioweapons (contrary to the rat-virus-by-way-of-snakes thesis) ----> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zEIQuRg-m4&t=0s

Angela
28-01-20, 06:52
When the medical authorities say the actual number may be 30X higher than the government is saying, I think it's time our governments got their acts together.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZeKzqphlzM

John Hopkins University Public Health Office put out something today saying it may be too late to stop a worldwide pandemic. Well, if that's the case it's because China didn't close its borders in time, and other countries didn't close their borders in time.

Quarantines are always the only real solution in situations like this.

dominique_nuit
28-01-20, 17:10
As an inveterate pessimist, I cannot help but suspect that Western authorities are allowing infected & contagious travelers from China into the US and Europe because they are not yet registering a fever or showing other symptoms of novel coronavirus.

If it gets into the NY subway, all bets are off. I don't think we will be nearly so orderly as the Chinese, however great their failings

Angela
28-01-20, 17:25
As an inveterate pessimist, I cannot help but suspect that Western authorities are allowing infected & contagious travelers from China into the US and Europe because they are not yet registering a fever or showing other symptoms of novel coronavirus.

If it gets into the NY subway, all bets are off. I don't think we will be nearly so orderly as the Chinese, however great their failings

I agree. There's no way they are doing anything but looking for a fever and cough. They should be stopping all flights from China or that stopped in China, although it may be too little, too late.

Mongolia has shut its border with China, and neighboring countries are following suit. They have more sense than my own government.

If these scientists are correct, and China knew much earlier than they let on that it was airborne and so high on the contagion scale, then the ultimate responsibility is theirs.

What still boggles my mind is that they want to be a superpower but they still have a completely unhygienic food supply and eat wild animals known to harbor bizarre viruses. This keeps happening. Influenza after influenza spreads from there, then SARS, now this. The rest of the world gets affected. When are they going to address it? I suppose at the same time as they stop polluting.

Btw, I saw a youtube upload from an American trapped in the city at the epicenter of the outbreak with his Chinese wife and child and he said people are completely panicked. No food is left in the stores, and people aren't moving from their homes.

Would it be worse in New York? Absolutely, although I lived through blackouts in lower Manhattan and people were wonderful. The atmosphere has definitely changed, though.

dominique_nuit
28-01-20, 17:27
German man contracted novel coronavirus from asymptomatic Chinese colleague at work training session in Bavaria ===

"The colleague, a woman from Shanghai, "started to feel sick on the flight home on January 23," Andreas Zapf, head of the Bavarian State Office for Health and Food Safety, said at a press conference."

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-confirms-human-transmission-of-coronavirus/a-52169007

dominique_nuit
28-01-20, 17:41
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog: (https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/01/some-practical-questions-about.html)
Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.
Like everyone else, I’ve been reading the mainstream media reports on the Coronavirus epidemic. I haven’t found any information about the practicalities that immediately occur to me, such as:
1. When public transportation is halted and commerce grinds to a halt as people avoid public places and gatherings, thousands of employees no longer go to work. Who pays their wages while the city is locked down? The employers? Then who compensates the employers, since their income has also gone to zero?
Does China have a universal unemployment insurance system that can quickly issue payments to all people who are no longer going to work and getting a paycheck from an employer?
What about the thousands of migrant workers who don’t have regular employers? Who pays them? If they’re technically not officially sanctioned residents of the city, they don’t exist in government records.
2. If people idled by the lockdown are supposed to live off savings, what about all the marginal workers with few resources? What are they going to live on once their meager savings are gone?
3. Given the choice of obeying the lockdown rules and starving or slipping out of the city to find paid work somewhere else, how many migrant workers will choose to slip away?
4. Unlike the developed West, many people in China still have ancestral villages to return to, rural towns where their grandparents or or other close relatives live. If work has dried up and you’re fearful of catching a potentially lethal virus, wouldn’t it make sense to slip out of the city and make your way back to the village where you can hunker down until the epidemic blows over?
Since people who caught the virus may not know they’re a carrier, how will this migration not spread the disease to rural areas with few medical resources?
5. The typical city has about a week’s supply of food, fuel, etc. at best. If the lockdown runs longer than a few days, scarcities of essentials will ignite hoarding, and remaining supplies will be snapped up.
Since the city’s residents need food, fuel, etc., it must be brought in regardless of the lockdown. This brings outside workers into the city and provides residents desperate to flee avenues to escape the lockdown. Every individual involved in this system is potentially exposed to the virus or is a potential asymptomatic carrier of the virus leaving the city.
These realities leave officials with an impossible choice: either truly isolate the city, which isn’t possible for more than a few days, or allow the stupendous flow of goods required to sustain millions of city residents, thereby creating uncontrollable avenues for the virus to spread beyond the city as transport workers and those fleeing the lockdown travel to other cities.
6. The only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them in full hazmat mode, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease–up to two weeks–and isolate all these individuals until they either develop the disease or pass through the crisis unharmed.
This was the basic procedure used to end the SARS epidemic in 2003. As this article from the The New England Journal of Medicine explains (Another Decade, Another Coronavirus (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2001126), (via correspondent Cheryl A.), the Wuhan Coronavirus shares characteristics with SARS and cannot be dismissed as just another run-of-the-mill flu virus.
During this process of isolating / quarantining everyone with the disease and everyone they had close contact with, all healthcare workers caring for these people must also remain isolated from the general populace lest they become infected and spread the disease outside the quarantine.
Treating people in crowded hospitals where hundreds of people are coming and going and moving freely into the rest of the city won’t stop a contagion from spreading.
If the only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease–is this even possible in China now?
Please study the map below before claiming it’s still possible.
https://theduran.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/virus-china1-20a.png
7. China is making a big show about sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan, but precisely what medical treatments are available for this virus, how effective are these treatments, and do they require a physician to be administered? If the answers are: there are no effective targeted medical treatments for this virus, and doctors are not required to administer what is available, then why expose a scarce resource–physicians–to the disease since they really can’t do much to halt it or heal the patients?
Isn’t sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan more a PR move than anything else? And if it’s basically a PR stunt to appear to be “doing something,” doesn’t that call the entire official response into question?
If there is no targeted treatment available, then the recovery of the patient is a function of their immune system. Building tent hospitals that are porous–healthcare workers returning home after their shift, relatives visiting the stricken, workers moving supplies in and out of other facilities, etc.–will do little to isolate carriers and potential carriers. And since complete isolation is the only way to stem the contagion, these porous tent hospitals won’t do much to limit the contagion.
8. Are the travel bans on tours and other travel restriction measures 100%, in other words, not a single individual is being allowed in or out? If the travel restrictions are haphazard, then what’s stopping asymptomatic carriers of the virus from traveling freely around the world?
There are many other practical questions about the epidemic and China’s response that aren’t being addressed in the conventional media. While we don’t know precisely how contagious and lethal the virus is at this point–and it could mutate into a more contagious and lethal variation within a carrier at any moment–we do know complete isolation of every carrier and everyone they had close contact with is the only way to end the contagion.
We also know cities can’t truly be isolated for longer than a few days, and we know people can’t live without food, water, fuel, etc. and money to buy these essentials. We also know that restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.

Angela
28-01-20, 18:31
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog: (https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/01/some-practical-questions-about.html)
Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.
Like everyone else, I’ve been reading the mainstream media reports on the Coronavirus epidemic. I haven’t found any information about the practicalities that immediately occur to me, such as:
1. When public transportation is halted and commerce grinds to a halt as people avoid public places and gatherings, thousands of employees no longer go to work. Who pays their wages while the city is locked down? The employers? Then who compensates the employers, since their income has also gone to zero?
Does China have a universal unemployment insurance system that can quickly issue payments to all people who are no longer going to work and getting a paycheck from an employer?
What about the thousands of migrant workers who don’t have regular employers? Who pays them? If they’re technically not officially sanctioned residents of the city, they don’t exist in government records.
2. If people idled by the lockdown are supposed to live off savings, what about all the marginal workers with few resources? What are they going to live on once their meager savings are gone?
3. Given the choice of obeying the lockdown rules and starving or slipping out of the city to find paid work somewhere else, how many migrant workers will choose to slip away?
4. Unlike the developed West, many people in China still have ancestral villages to return to, rural towns where their grandparents or or other close relatives live. If work has dried up and you’re fearful of catching a potentially lethal virus, wouldn’t it make sense to slip out of the city and make your way back to the village where you can hunker down until the epidemic blows over?
Since people who caught the virus may not know they’re a carrier, how will this migration not spread the disease to rural areas with few medical resources?
5. The typical city has about a week’s supply of food, fuel, etc. at best. If the lockdown runs longer than a few days, scarcities of essentials will ignite hoarding, and remaining supplies will be snapped up.
Since the city’s residents need food, fuel, etc., it must be brought in regardless of the lockdown. This brings outside workers into the city and provides residents desperate to flee avenues to escape the lockdown. Every individual involved in this system is potentially exposed to the virus or is a potential asymptomatic carrier of the virus leaving the city.
These realities leave officials with an impossible choice: either truly isolate the city, which isn’t possible for more than a few days, or allow the stupendous flow of goods required to sustain millions of city residents, thereby creating uncontrollable avenues for the virus to spread beyond the city as transport workers and those fleeing the lockdown travel to other cities.
6. The only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them in full hazmat mode, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease–up to two weeks–and isolate all these individuals until they either develop the disease or pass through the crisis unharmed.
This was the basic procedure used to end the SARS epidemic in 2003. As this article from the The New England Journal of Medicine explains (Another Decade, Another Coronavirus (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2001126), (via correspondent Cheryl A.), the Wuhan Coronavirus shares characteristics with SARS and cannot be dismissed as just another run-of-the-mill flu virus.
During this process of isolating / quarantining everyone with the disease and everyone they had close contact with, all healthcare workers caring for these people must also remain isolated from the general populace lest they become infected and spread the disease outside the quarantine.
Treating people in crowded hospitals where hundreds of people are coming and going and moving freely into the rest of the city won’t stop a contagion from spreading.
If the only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease–is this even possible in China now?
Please study the map below before claiming it’s still possible.
https://theduran.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/virus-china1-20a.png
7. China is making a big show about sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan, but precisely what medical treatments are available for this virus, how effective are these treatments, and do they require a physician to be administered? If the answers are: there are no effective targeted medical treatments for this virus, and doctors are not required to administer what is available, then why expose a scarce resource–physicians–to the disease since they really can’t do much to halt it or heal the patients?
Isn’t sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan more a PR move than anything else? And if it’s basically a PR stunt to appear to be “doing something,” doesn’t that call the entire official response into question?
If there is no targeted treatment available, then the recovery of the patient is a function of their immune system. Building tent hospitals that are porous–healthcare workers returning home after their shift, relatives visiting the stricken, workers moving supplies in and out of other facilities, etc.–will do little to isolate carriers and potential carriers. And since complete isolation is the only way to stem the contagion, these porous tent hospitals won’t do much to limit the contagion.
8. Are the travel bans on tours and other travel restriction measures 100%, in other words, not a single individual is being allowed in or out? If the travel restrictions are haphazard, then what’s stopping asymptomatic carriers of the virus from traveling freely around the world?
There are many other practical questions about the epidemic and China’s response that aren’t being addressed in the conventional media. While we don’t know precisely how contagious and lethal the virus is at this point–and it could mutate into a more contagious and lethal variation within a carrier at any moment–we do know complete isolation of every carrier and everyone they had close contact with is the only way to end the contagion.
We also know cities can’t truly be isolated for longer than a few days, and we know people can’t live without food, water, fuel, etc. and money to buy these essentials. We also know that restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.

All excellent questions, most of which only China can answer.

That's why the only solution was and is the closing of China's borders.

It certainly isn't to merrily allow flight after flight to leave from China to destinations around the world.

Might it still get out? Yes,it probably can, but you don't do nothing because what you do wouldn't be 100%.

I recommend to you "The Decameron". :)

American Samoa also never saw a single case of the so-called "Spanish Flu", and that's because they closed their borders.

Dagne
28-01-20, 18:32
I was also following the news on internet, the UK scientists mentioned today that there could be about 100 000 of those who contracted the virus in China by now. Approx 1/4 will have to go to hospital with serious symptoms, while some (up to 3% of those may not be able to survive). Where special intensive care measures are applied - like injecting oxygen right into blood stream when a full lung failure happens - many those who otherwise could have died, can be saved, too.
So overall, now the novel coronavirus mortality rate is similar to that of common flu, (depending on a season, estimated mortality rate for common flu may be 1%-3%. Reliable statistics about common influenza related deaths is not available or difficult to find, but apparently it can also be rather deadly for patients with weaker immune system like children or especially old and otherwise sick people).

In sum, this novel coronavirus is dangerous - who would want to get a flu with a 25% probability of additional pneumonia when it is impossible to breathe ? And be fearful about dying from it, in addition, though it is not very deadly compared to Ebola and SARS - provided medical facilities are available and if they are not overburdened - even if one ends up among 25% with serious symptoms.

The dangerous part is also that the virus seems to be more contagious than common flu, besides, it may mutate into something else (which is more dangerous or less dangerous, which we don't now)

Dagne
28-01-20, 18:56
The issue of Chinese government building new hospitals is very important - people sick with this coronavirus do need special hospital help - one of the symptoms is weakness up to collapsing and inability to breathe (hospitals may help with oxygen masks, and in most serious cases with other live support systems). Besides, keeping weak and contagious patients isolated in hospital is good in terms of reducing the spread of the disease.

This is an extract from an article what about the treatment of novel coronavirus:

"... the disease progresses rapidly during the second week—in a similar fashion to SARS. Hypoxemia caused by increasing lung injury leads to difficulty breathing and the need for oxygen therapy. ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) is a common complication. Between 25 and 32 percent of cases are admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for mechanical ventilation and sometimes ECMO (pumping blood through an artificial lung for oxygenation).
Other complications include septic shock, acute kidney injury, and virus-induced cardiac injury. The extensive lung damage also sets the lung up for secondary bacterial pneumonia, which occurs in 10 percent of ICU admissions."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/26/2019-ncov-china-epidemic-pandemic-the-wuhan-coronavirus-a-tentative-clinical-profile/

Angela
28-01-20, 19:23
I was also following the news on internet, the UK scientists mentioned today that there could be about 100 000 of those who contracted the virus in China by now. Approx 1/4 will have to go to hospital with serious symptoms, while some (up to 3% of those may not be able to survive). Where special intensive care measures are applied - like injecting oxygen right into blood stream when a full lung failure happens - many those who otherwise could have died, can be saved, too.
So overall, now the novel coronavirus mortality rate is similar to that of common flu, (depending on a season, estimated mortality rate for common flu may be 1%-3%. Reliable statistics about common influenza related deaths is not available or difficult to find, but apparently it can also be rather deadly for patients with weaker immune system like children or especially old and otherwise sick people).

In sum, this novel coronavirus is dangerous - who would want to get a flu with a 25% probability of additional pneumonia when it is impossible to breathe ? And be fearful about dying from it, in addition, though it is not very deadly compared to Ebola and SARS - provided medical facilities are available and if they are not overburdened - even if one ends up among 25% with serious symptoms.

The dangerous part is also that the virus seems to be more contagious than common flu, besides, it may mutate into something else (which is more dangerous or less dangerous, which we don't now)

I guess we're reading different "experts".

"2. @WHO (https://twitter.com/WHO)
says it currently appears that about 20% people who contract #2019nCoV (https://twitter.com/hashtag/2019nCoV?src=hashtag_click) experience "severe" illness. No word, though, on what efforts have been made to find mild cases that don't present for care in order to try to understand how much of the iceberg we're seeing."

20% of people who get the flu don't experience "severe" illness, and no, it's not just the elderly or immune compromised who die. One of the first to die was a doctor treating these patients. That's why they're now wearing HAZMAT suits.

Sure hope the experts you're reading are right.

Dagne
28-01-20, 19:44
It certainly isn't to merrily allow flight after flight to leave from China to destinations around the world.
.

Somehow it would be sort of inhuman to disallow people coming from China. In Lt press there is a story about a Chinese student from Wuhan who arrived to Lt yesterday. The university did not agree to give journalists her contacts, because she might be intimidated by all the attention from the press. She is feeling fine now, hopefully all will be fine with her, and even if she has the virus, it is still would be rather inhuman to ban her coming to the university because she "may turn out to be dangerous"

Dagne
28-01-20, 21:31
Yes, I was reading about several doctors who died - one was in his 60-ies, another in 50-ies, one apparently died from virus induced cardiac injury - in simple words heart attack which is also a complication of this virus.



The source of figures that I was quoting are from
"Two studies released on Jan. 24—one about 41 infected (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext) patients and the other on a family cluster (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext) of six separate from those 41" in the Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

(According to Lancet, out of 41 admitted patients five 12% developed an acute cardiac injury as a complication. And 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.

The study is scientific, though of course, the clinical profile of the disease will be made clear after compiling more information, this was only very start of it.
The death rate of 15% (6 out of 41 died) is high, however, those 41 most apparently already had very severe symptoms (all had pneumonia).
Overall, not everyone gets viral pneumonia from this virus, as I understand, there are such which get only symptoms of a mild cold and are over with it.


I am really sorry about Wuhan people, who are basically have to deal with the situation themselves as I understand - there is no public transport to get to hospitals apart from taxi and if one gets in hospital they have to wait for very long hours to get any medical attention. I do hope situation may be a better, but it is difficult to get something filmed and posted on online in China. It must be very scary.

Angela
28-01-20, 21:36
Somehow it would be sort of inhuman to disallow people coming from China. In Lt press there is a story about a Chinese student from Wuhan who arrived to Lt yesterday. The university did not agree to give journalists her contacts, because she might be intimidated by all the attention from the press. She is feeling fine now, hopefully all will be fine with her, and even if she has the virus, it is still would be rather inhuman to ban her coming to the university because she "may turn out to be dangerous"

Sorry. That's how 1/4 to 1/3 of all Europeans died from the Plague during the Middle Ages.

I'm not equating the severity of the diseases by any means, but sound public health policy always demands quarantine.

China should be quarantined until its under control.

Send supplies, technology, volunteer health professionals, whatever is necessary, but people traveling from China should not be allowed into our countries, period.

Dagne
28-01-20, 21:58
I don't know, you may be right. If we dealt with virus like Ebola, with 25% - 90% death rate, then yes, I agree. Also, I kind of understood if such measures were taken by Hong Kong or Singapore, where the risks of spreading the virus is very hight, and where Chinese people tend to go very often.


On the other hand, if the final mortality rate of this coronavirus is the same like with common flu, when imposing quarantine and fully disrupting live of so many Chinese is too much. After all, if such outbreak happened in the USA city of comparable size like Wuhan I doubt if people would stand it. I just can't imagine all New York or WDC being closed like what they did in Wohan.
After all, WHO should recommend measures of this scale weighting all pros and cons from different national point of views.

Dagne
28-01-20, 23:03
Another thing I don't understand is the refusal to get serious about the sale of wild animals for meat. For crying out loud, they have cameras everywhere, and you get demerits for wearing the wrong clothes and get put in jail for making a joke about the leadership, but the government lets markets openly sell snake and other meats in, from what everyone who has ever been to mainland China tells me, exceptionally unhygienic "markets"?


I very much agree with this. I saw parts of dog meat, which looked exactly like my dog, in one pictures of Wohan market. Absolutely shocking and horrendous. One of WHO officials said that until people eat meat there will always be a risk of coronaviruses appearing.

Angela
29-01-20, 01:35
I very much agree with this. I saw parts of dog meat, which looked exactly like my dog, in one pictures of Wohan market. Absolutely shocking and horrendous. One of WHO officials said that until people eat meat there will always be a risk of coronaviruses appearing.

Well, I don't see Coronavirus showing up in the U.S. and Britain, and we eat a lot of meat.

The point is you can't eat wild animals which are known to harbor terrible viruses, like snake (in this case, they think), or marmots (source of the plague), or monkeys (probably the source of Ebola). The Chinese eat all sorts of wild animals which are not consumed in the west.

Plus, the hygiene there is horrendous. I have a number of very well traveled friends who have been to China, and, having been warned, they brought canned food with them. They said they were so thankful people had told them to bring it, because after seeing the meat markets and pig pens and chicken runs they were appalled.

Chickens, for example, are not clean animals under the best of circumstances. Didn't SARS start in fowl? My mother treated them like toxic waste, soaking them in a salt water brine before cooking them and bleaching all the surfaces which came into contact with them. On her farm, they were handled outdoors, for that very reason. She had lots of rules like that, probably from growing up on a farm: take your shoes off when you come in, wash your hands well as soon as you come indoors, use salt water or vinegar and water to disinfect surfaces, never sneeze into the air, use a handkerchief or at least cough into your sleeve, etc. I follow them all.

Turns out she was even right that your immune system gets weaker if you get suddenly cold. That one I didn't believe, but she was right about that too.

I wouldn't last long in countries without good hygiene. I couldn't even deal with Mexico; got really ill both times I went. So, I've never felt the slightest interest in going to some of these more "exotic" places. Turns out I was right. Imagine being trapped there while all this is going on.

bicicleur
29-01-20, 10:42
BlueDot is a Canadian start-up.
They developped an algorithm based on AI to predict the spread of epedemics.

https://businessam.be/ai-identificeerde-coronavirus-9-dagen-voor-de-who/?fbclid=IwAR3MULDUnkvk4nWsYF5WMF3KgtgghVWkyHDTiQtJ Q2uM7HcBgpQMWaU7POw

They detected the corona virus in Wuhan on 31 december, before Chinese authorities or WHO made any mention of it, and they predicted the spread to Bangkok, Seoel, Taipei and Tokio based on air traffic.
Their software was first used in 2016 to predict the spread of the Zika-virus.

Angela
29-01-20, 15:22
BlueDot is a Canadian start-up.
They developped an algorithm based on AI to predict the spread of epedemics.

https://businessam.be/ai-identificeerde-coronavirus-9-dagen-voor-de-who/?fbclid=IwAR3MULDUnkvk4nWsYF5WMF3KgtgghVWkyHDTiQtJ Q2uM7HcBgpQMWaU7POw

They detected the corona virus in Wuhan on 31 december, before Chinese authorities or WHO made any mention of it, and they predicted the spread to Bangkok, Seoel, Taipei and Tokio based on air traffic.
Their software was first used in 2016 to predict the spread of the Zika-virus.

All governments lie at times, but China lies about absolutely everything, so why not this?

You'd think if they can use technology and facial recognition to give demerits for mundane, insane, things, and take away your rights to travel as a result, and they can put millions of people in concentration camps, they could clean up their food supply.

You'd also think they'd be able to close their borders.

Angela
29-01-20, 17:03
British Airways has temporarily suspended all flights to and from mainland China, and Brits repatriated from Wuhan are being put in quarantine for two weeks.

Hong Kong has closed rail and ferry service with China.

It's probably too little too late.

In a macabre side note, all the Starbucks in China have closed. All movie theaters were previously closed. At least in the greater Wuhan area, which covers about 20 million people, no one is going to work and the supermarket shelves are empty.

Their economy is going to take a huge hit.

These poor people. So what if most of the deaths are in people over 55. Do they want to get really sick and worry about their parents or grandparents dying if they contract it as well?

They must be terrified.

etrusco
31-01-20, 17:13
Italian government has just declared a six month special emergency.
First cases of coronavirus reported in Rome : they are a married couple fron Whuan. They landed in Milan about ten days ago with an organized tour . Then visited some sites in the north and then came to Rome. I wonder how many people have been infected since.
Vaccine likely ready for late spring or early summer.

31-01-20, 20:16
Well, I don't see Coronavirus showing up in the U.S. and Britain, and we eat a lot of meat.

The point is you can't eat wild animals which are known to harbor terrible viruses, like snake (in this case, they think), or marmots (source of the plague), or monkeys (probably the source of Ebola). The Chinese eat all sorts of wild animals which are not consumed in the west.

Plus, the hygiene there is horrendous. I have a number of very well traveled friends who have been to China, and, having been warned, they brought canned food with them. They said they were so thankful people had told them to bring it, because after seeing the meat markets and pig pens and chicken runs they were appalled.

Chickens, for example, are not clean animals under the best of circumstances. Didn't SARS start in fowl? My mother treated them like toxic waste, soaking them in a salt water brine before cooking them and bleaching all the surfaces which came into contact with them. On her farm, they were handled outdoors, for that very reason. She had lots of rules like that, probably from growing up on a farm: take your shoes off when you come in, wash your hands well as soon as you come indoors, use salt water or vinegar and water to disinfect surfaces, never sneeze into the air, use a handkerchief or at least cough into your sleeve, etc. I follow them all.

Turns out she was even right that your immune system gets weaker if you get suddenly cold. That one I didn't believe, but she was right about that too.

I wouldn't last long in countries without good hygiene. I couldn't even deal with Mexico; got really ill both times I went. So, I've never felt the slightest interest in going to some of these more "exotic" places. Turns out I was right. Imagine being trapped there while all this is going on.

Two observations. When I was in the Navy we made a port call in Hong Kong. A buddy of mine, for some unknown reason, steered me through a local meat market and, even though this was back when the Brits were in charge, the sights were appalling. Some were simply a difference of Eastern and Western attitudes about the treatment of animals, but the filth and the flies, etc., resting on the haunches of meat put me off my lunch.

Second, we made a port call in Karachi. We were warned not to eat or drink while ashore; I got a canned beer at the embassy however, : ). A couple of cruiser commanders were invited to the restaurant at the Intercontinental hotel for a formal dinner and decided the food must be safe, it's a western hotel after all! They paid with several weeks confined to their quarters and the head (navalese for WC).

Travel is broadening, but one of the things you learn is that "you're not in Kansas anymore" and precautions need to be taken.

ihype02
31-01-20, 20:43
sorry. That's how 1/4 to 1/3 of all europeans died from the plague during the middle ages.

I'm not equating the severity of the diseases by any means, but sound public health policy always demands quarantine.

China should be quarantined until its under control.

Send supplies, technology, volunteer health professionals, whatever is necessary, but people traveling from china should not be allowed into our countries, period.
100% agreed!!!!

dominique_nuit
31-01-20, 21:24
New study states that R factor is 4.08, which is sky high ------>

(https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101.2020.01.27.20018952v1)for some reason, the links that I post do not work???!!!

So if interested, go to the website MedRxiv.org

The article is entitled "Estimating the Effective Reproduction Number of the 2019-nCoV in China

The lead author is Zhidong Cao

Carlos
01-02-20, 03:39
Coronavirus, last minute: Health confirms the first case in Spain: a German in La Gomera

https://e00-elmundo.uecdn.es/assets/multimedia/imagenes/2020/01/31/15805096210175.jpg

The first confirmed case in Spain is that of one of the five Germans who were under observation in La Gomera, and who had had contact with an infected person in their country

The National Center for Microbiology confirms the first case of coronavirus in Spain: a German in La Gomera. According to the statement, the patient is under observation.


https://www.elmundo.es/salud/2020/01/31/5e3463effdddfffa7a8b45ac.html

Dagne
01-02-20, 08:32
There is a very good explanation from MedCram how this novel coronavirus can spread https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nW3xqcGidpQ
There is specifically about this event (at 5:47) how Germans and now how it turns out Spanish people contracted the virus.

What is interesting is that people can be shedding the virus not only before they develop symptoms, but also after they recover from illness. Perhaps it is only those who undergo mild symptoms, however, in such case there are lots of possibilities for the virus to spread.
I wonder if current testing can detect the virus in those who don't have symptoms but have the virus and are contagious. It seems that it is not possible now, otherwise why would all those evacuated people would be held quarantined if they could just be tested for safety purposes.

bicicleur
02-02-20, 13:14
controll Chinese style :
a voice-activated drone urges these pedestrians and old ladies to wear masks outside, go home and wash their hands
they probably also lost a few points for bad behaviour and their mobility and freedom will be further restricted

https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland/china-zet-drones-met-scherpe-tong-in-om-mensen-zonder-mondmasker-te-berispen-he-tante-ja-ik-heb-het-tegen-jou~a654e335/?fbclid=IwAR2lymvwXUrMqeI3UgOgAFpToWZGiJ4qf9TTYg5h DR0BuDLd-458qqUStEo

after a while the video starts

Ailchu
02-02-20, 20:47
controll Chinese style :
a voice-activated drone urges these pedestrians and old ladies to wear masks outside, go home and wash their hands
they probably also lost a few points for bad behaviour and their mobility and freedom will be further restricted

https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland/china-zet-drones-met-scherpe-tong-in-om-mensen-zonder-mondmasker-te-berispen-he-tante-ja-ik-heb-het-tegen-jou~a654e335/?fbclid=IwAR2lymvwXUrMqeI3UgOgAFpToWZGiJ4qf9TTYg5h DR0BuDLd-458qqUStEo

after a while the video starts

according to other comments, the drone was steered by an influencer who probably thought it's funny, not by chinese authorities.

Angela
03-02-20, 17:45
"“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.
“But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.”
In the last three weeks, the number of lab-confirmed cases has soared from about 50 in China to more than 17,000 in at least 23 countries; there have been more than 360 deaths (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html)."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html

The actual number is probably over 100,000 people.
Right now, the death rate is about 2%, but hopefully it will drop if
they can get a handle on how many people have had a mild version.

At slightly over a 2% death rate, the "Spanish" flu of the early 20th century killed millions around the globe.

What the paper doesn't mention, but which I hope they're investigating is that immunity to it, or at least better immunity to it may differ among ethnic groups.

China's handling of a series of viruses arising in their country.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/27/bird-flu-sars-china-coronavirus-is-history-repeating-itself/?utm_content=bufferc4858&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_organic

The following report by a news agency from within China was censored. I sure hope they're wrong.
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Farchive.is%2FObawP

It's also not reassuring that Chinese authorities are enforcing quick cremation for all remains. Isn't that a bit much if it's just like a new strain of influenza?

Dagne
03-02-20, 22:35
Unbelievable, Spanish flu indeed was of a similar mortality rate to this novel coronavirus about 2%, though it varied (depending on a region and if people were exposed to the first, less deadly wave).

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/images/05-0979-F1.gif
from https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979-f1

Before I googled about the figures, I was sure that Spanish flu must have been more mortal, as it is indicated in a recent NY time article about various infectious deceases...
11788
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html

Dagne
03-02-20, 23:06
"

It's also not reassuring that Chinese authorities are enforcing quick cremation for all remains. Isn't that a bit much if it's just like a new strain of influenza?





In case of Ebola, dead bodies were very much contagious. I am not sure how it is in case of this novel coronavirus. It is heart breaking for the families of the deceased, but, I guess it is done as a measure of precaution.

Besides, the novel coronavirus may be spreading a lot through surfaces, it was attested that this coronavirus stayed on doorknob, for instance

According to a study of 2010, some coronaviruses may stay infectious in cold weather (4C) up to 28 days, which is much different compared to human flu or cold viruses https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

Another way of getting the infection in case of SARS was through fecal - oral way, where one infected person spread the virus to around 200 people because he had a diarrhoea and it somehow infected the air ventilation system of the house.

Angela
05-02-20, 18:57
A scientific paper just released emphasizes that mutation changes could significantly increase the transmissibility of the disease and must be carefully monitored.

"“Alarmingly, our data predict that a single mutation [at a specific spot in the genome] could significantly enhance [the Wuhan coronavirus’s] ability to bind with human ACE2,” the investigators write. For this reason, Wuhan coronavirus evolution in patients should be closely monitored for the emergence of novel mutations at the 501 position in its genome, and to a lesser extent, the 494 position, in order to predict the possibility of a more serious outbreak than has been seen so far."

Figures for today show the fatality rate to be holding at 2%, but hopefully it's less because some people didn't know they had it and so aren't included in the reported cases.

As well as age (the average age of the people who have died is 55), smoking or having smoked for a considerable amount of time seems to be the biggest factor.

Dagne
06-02-20, 12:38
According to one news coverage, this coronavirus may be some 200 times more dangerous than common flu, because fatality of common flue is often only about .01% (compared to the current rate of 2% in coronavirus).

Even if actual fatality rate of coronavirus is about 0.5%, it is much more dangerous than flue because it is more contagious, people don't have immunity, and 25%-20% will develop serious complications like pneumonia where supporting lung ventilation is needed. If this novel coronavirus spreads like seasonal flue, health care systems will be fully overburdened to deal with it in any, even the most developed country.

Usually the viruses tend to mutate so that they can spread more easy, but at the same time they are usually less deadly. For instance, Ebola had somewhere like 90% fatality, but more recent versions it were already 25%- 50%. On the other hand, Spanish flue mutated from a less sever version to a more sever pandemic, therefore it is difficult to be sure.
So it is better to avoid it, like it was dealt with with SARS. Overall, I really feel sorry about Chinese people who are likely to suffer from it for some time until it is somehow will be harnessed.

Angela
06-02-20, 18:13
I have no idea what to think anymore about the fatality rate, Dagne, because I don't think we have accurate numbers. The Chinese government had reprimanded a doctor in December for "rumor" mongering when he expressed concern to other doctors about a strange new "pneumonia" showing up. (He has since died of it.) So, are we really likely to get good numbers? Plus, the number of body bags being ordered is worrying.

On the other hand, how many people got sick and thought it was flu, or were pretty ill but afraid to report it?

I also completely agree with you that the overburdening of the health care system will up the fatality rate. The grandmother of a famous Chinese musician died at home after being repeatedly turned away from the hospital. Containment in hospitals is just not feasible any longer, so sick people are being sent home to infect their families.

They just can't cope. I don't know if any country could...

In another bizarre twist the government announced that house to house temperature checks will be conducted. Honestly, that's also completely infeasible. Plus, given there's no room in the hospitals, are they going to seal up the house and let everyone inside get sick or not, and then either get better or die on their own?

Leaked documentation from Britain shows they're taking it very seriously indeed.

"All UK hospitals have been told to prepare secure coronavirus zones to “avoid a surge” in emergency departments, a leaked NHS letter has shown.The letter, dated 31 January, tells hospitals to set up “coronavirus priority assessment pods”, which can be decontaminated after each use.
All chief executives and medical directors are instructed to have the pods up and running by Friday 7 February.
Prof Keith Willett, who is leading the NHS’s response to coronavirus, told NHS bosses in the letter: “Plans have been developed to avoid a surge in emergency departments due to coronavirus."

Yetos
07-02-20, 19:38
results and effect calculated with Statistics Artificial inteligence


http://images.newsnowgreece.com/132/1323344/1.jpg

Angela
07-02-20, 20:33
results and effect calculated with Statistics Artificial inteligence


http://images.newsnowgreece.com/132/1323344/1.jpg

And that's assuming they're publishing the true figures, which I doubt. What about all the people who are afraid to go to the hospital, or the ones they are sending back home without actually checking to see if they have the virus or it's a regular flu?

Btw, the doctor I mentioned above who had expressed his concern way back in Nov/Dec about a new virus, and who has since died of it, was in his mid-thirties and healthy, and he was actually arrested and forced to sign a "confession" that he had lied. The same thing happened to a bunch of other doctors. Pictures of them had been run on state tv to shame them for "rumor mongering". It's the same pattern that played out in Stalinist Russia.

The most ghastly reports for me about all of this are the ones saying that since they don't have enough hospital beds for people they're sending them back home. In effect, they're being abandoned, and they will also infect their families.

Videos leaked out of China also show that these new "hospitals", and the converted convention halls etc. don't have enough wash rooms and there's barely any staff.

This is a complete horror. These poor people.

Ed. Very interesting research published based on 138 cases in a Wuhan hospital:-26% required ICU-41% were believed to be human to human hospital related transmissions-29% of patients were medical workersSource:https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044 (https://t.co/IILrnb8StK?amp=1)

Dagne
07-02-20, 21:43
I am sure there are more deaths than officially accounted. At the same time, there must be more infected people, too. It is all happening beyond statistics. So those official numbers that we see now may reflect only what happens with registered patients in hospitals who underwent testing for coronavirus infection. Testing kits and capacities are too few and too little, so the statistics are underestimating the scope of the outbreak.

However, if we start counting deaths among those hospitalised outside of China, the fatality rate would not be very hight as of today, and I don't think that those cases are manipulated, do you?

On the other hand we can count the latest survival/recovery rate of those who end up in Chinese hospitals - according to official Chinese statistics there were 1726 recoveries and 639 deaths as of 7 Feb 2020. So the recovery rate is about 60% as of today. Hopefully it will improve with time, as it takes time to fully recover.
As of now, the fatality among more serious cases is somewhere around 40%, mathematically if we presume that fatality rate of this coronavirus is 2% the recovery rate at the end of the outbreak should be 98%, rather than 60% as it is now, so it is still a very long way to go until the outbreak is stopped.

I feel so sorry for Dr Li Wenliang who wanted to inform about the spread of the virus, but was silenced... The whole story including his death, and how the authorities tried to cover it up, is so very much depressing. Especially having in mind, that he was 34 years of age, and did not fall into any risk groups, besides, as a doctor who got infected while carrying out his duties he should have been offered the priority care. And yet he could not have been saved. Left a pregnant wife with a small child.

Angela
09-02-20, 17:27
Another worrying development...

Young, healthy patients getting sick

Super-spreaders confirmed, including fast hospital acquired infection

*26*% progression to severe respiratory and inflammatory symptoms

Unexpected relapse/increased severity in patients with seemingly mild infection

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-patients.html


The hospitals are becoming prime sources of the disease, and many of those affected are the hospital staff.

bicicleur
09-02-20, 18:50
results and effect calculated with Statistics Artificial inteligence


http://images.newsnowgreece.com/132/1323344/1.jpg

that is not artificial intelligence
it is a mathematical row

Yetos
10-02-20, 19:34
that is not artificial intelligence
it is a mathematical row

true.
I just used the term as the artical translated in Greek.
I agree, its simple math row, using a statistic model of distribution, of expand,

the term was τεχνητη νοημοσυνη, (artificial ineligence)

NOTICE
the average statistical death after infected is 1 per 40-50.
data from mainly chinese population,
we do not know yet in other populations.

Dagne
11-02-20, 17:18
If this novel coronavirus is airborne as some other human coronaviruses or flu, then it is very difficult to contain. WHO say it is not, but how do they know? The right approach would be to say that we don't know at this point, but take the precautions as if it were. Even the Chinese themselves are warning that it might be.

If it is the case, then this outbreak basically has to burn out or stopped by summer weather (of course if this coronavirus is less infectious at warm temperatures). Let's see that kind of evidence we get with time. If it is airbone, then it will travel around the globe sooner of later.

This is an optimistic feature (in line with the official Chinese news making) about a doctor in Wuhan who overcame the coronavirus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv1_BVUHZvg

At 1:51 the recovering doctor says that if you've healthy body, you have 70%-80% chances of recovery... which was supposed to be very comforting. But it is the same as saying the 20%-30% will die..., which is far from comforting.

Angela
11-02-20, 18:06
^^Hardly comforting is right.

In Hong Kong two people got the virus who lived in the same apartment building, but they lived on different floors and didn't know one another. They're investigating to see whether it has to do with fecal matter.

A doctor came out and said public restrooms shouldn't be used unless absolutely necessary, and that if one does have to use one, nothing should be touched by the bare hands. He recommended using a paper towel to touch surfaces.

Jesus, my mother taught me that when I was five! What's wrong with people?

""Interestingly, a variable number of people get diarrhoea, which is of interest to me because it looks like this coronavirus has some of the same receptors as SARS, which target cells not only in the lungs but the gastrointestinal tract."SARS spread through faecal matter. We don't know if coronavirus can spread this way as well.
"But in the US, they did isolate it [coronavirus] in poo. Odds on it is most likely it could [spread this way]."
In Australia, patients would be isolated in a single room and with their own toilet, which would not be the case in China where hospitals and medical professionals had been swamped.
Dr Mackay said his understanding was about 20-25 per cent of coronavirus cases in China were considered severe."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/coronavirus-china-sars-flu-in-australia-the-different-diseases/11950358

Jovialis
11-02-20, 22:19
https://i.imgur.com/Vh90Rgp.jpg

I can't believe this cute little animal might be the bat-to-human intermediary for coronavirus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-a-pangolin-animal-spread-coronavirus-to-humans-2020-2

Carlos
12-02-20, 03:01
They always look for an animal to blame, with AIDS the monkey now the bat must be a sequel to the Middle Ages.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The second case of coronavirus in Spain is a British who was infected in the Alps

The patient is admitted and isolated in the hospital of Son Espases (Palma), although the diagnosis is “very mild


https://ep02.epimg.net/sociedad/imagenes/2020/02/09/actualidad/1581239494_728623_1581321227_noticia_fotograma.jpg

The National Center for Microbiology (CNM) has confirmed this Sunday morning that a British citizen has tested positive in the Balearic Islands for the Wuhan coronavirus. The man resides in Mallorca with his family and returned on January 29 from a ski trip to the French Alps during which he maintained close contact with a group in which five cases have been diagnosed, all of them British. The patient is admitted and isolated in the hospital of Son Espases (Palma), although the diagnosis is "very mild" and practically "asymptomatic", explained Fernando Simón, director of the Center for Coordination of Alerts and Emergencies (CCAES) of the Ministry of health.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

travel to China: "I lock myself up for responsibility"

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/02/06/actualidad/1581007619_535263.html

At least 61 Chinese voluntarily isolate themselves in Spain after visiting their country of origin

https://ep02.epimg.net/sociedad/imagenes/2020/02/06/actualidad/1581007619_535263_1581086873_noticia_fotograma.jpg
Nan Yong, 49, on his second day of voluntary quarantine at his home in Madrid. On video, in quarantine at his home in Spain because he traveled to China. ATLAS

When Nan Yong landed in Madrid on Wednesday, his relatives were waiting for him with masks and the keys of two cars. In the first, everyone who welcomed him returned after having spent several weeks in Wenzhou (Zhejiang, China). In the other, Nan returned only to the house where he will be locked up for at least two weeks. "It is the only way to prevent a possible infection," says this 49-year-old wholesaler.

Yetos
12-02-20, 12:04
if there is 'family connection' with SARS and MERS
then is not bat or snake,
but rather air circulation systems.

Yet the Hong kong case maybe lead us to other conclusions,
Something runs underneath official publishing, connecting it with 'gutter oil' there, officially is Rumors

from news


https://twitter.com/i/status/1226902394765746176


https://twitter.com/i/status/1227430649784651777


in my mind comes the medieval Europe

https://www.shtfplan.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/plague-e1508254891177.jpg


https://elcomercio.pe/resizer/XKLptSVxMDeozK5Qnh06sirF0sQ=/980x528/smart/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-elcomercio.s3.amazonaws.com/public/I7M67JMA2BDYVDVR4HHHVDSZFA.jpg

Carlos
13-02-20, 02:32
The Mobile World Congress of Barcelona, canceled by the coronavirus

https://www.elmundo.es/economia/2020/02/12/5e43e92ffc6c83f5098b45f5.html

The Mobile World Congress (MWC) of Barcelona opts for cancellation. The GSMA association, organizer of the appointment, has held an extraordinary meeting of its council on Wednesday, to analyze electronically if the event is held before the wave of cancellations of the last days. The conclusion has been to cancel it.


"With all due respect to a safe and healthy environment in Barcelona and in the host country, today the GSMA has canceled the MWC Barcelona 2020, because the global concern regarding the coronavirus outbreak, the travel problem and other circumstances make it impossible for the GSMA celebrate the event, "the organization has ruled.

The Mobile brings together professionals from all over the world in Barcelona. The expected influx for this edition was counted at 110,000 people, with 5% of participants from China, that is, more than 6,500 people. The epidemic is concentrated in that country today: more than 1,100 people have died there because of the coronavirus and the infections amount to more than 44,000.

The case of the Dutch 'Mobile' that everyone attends despite the coronavirus

https://www.elconfidencial.com/tecnologia/2020-02-12/ise2020-coronavirus-mobile-suspension-empresas_2450719/

The normal thing in the 'Mobile' of the Dutch capital is said by people like Roberto Quintanilla, owner of the Madrid-based company Kerkin Audiovisuales SL, who attended the event with his partner and with certain reluctance for the coronavirus, but after the first few days being there, now come with disbelief what happens in Barcelona. "Look, there are a lot of Chinese companies here, come on, we work with several, and they are working normally. The organization has put up a series of security measures and some Asian with a mask is seen, but little else," says Quintanilla, in conversation with Teknautas.

Dagne
13-02-20, 08:17
https://i.imgur.com/Vh90Rgp.jpg

I can't believe this cute little animal might be the bat-to-human intermediary for coronavirus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-a-pangolin-animal-spread-coronavirus-to-humans-2020-2


It is so cute and it is a victim, too, rather than culprit. HOW COULD anyone want to eat it?!

Angela
13-02-20, 17:42
It is so cute and it is a victim, too, rather than culprit. HOW COULD anyone want to eat it?!

It's apparently the most trafficked endangered species.

Some people do eat them, but the scales are considered even more precious. They're used in traditional Chinese medicine. Clothing has also been made from the scales.
"The animal itself is eaten, but a greater danger arises from the belief that the scales have medicinal value. Fresh scales are never used, but dried scales are roasted, ashed, cooked in oil, butter, vinegar, boy's urine, or roasted with earth or oyster-shells, to cure a variety of ills. Amongst these are excessive nervousness and hysterical crying in children, women possessed by devils and ogres, malarial fever and deafness. "

I'll be charitable and just say that imo China isn't quite ready for first world status.

https://www.nature.com/articles/141072b0

The ultimate source is the bat, which is also eaten in some parts of China. The pangolin was the intermediary.

Diseases pass from animals to man. We get malaria from insect bites. We used to get tuberculosis from cows, through the milk.

It seems to me that even if an an animal harbors a bacterium or virus which can be transferred to humans, sanitary practices would get rid of most of the problem. It's all about hygienic practices in handling food, or not eating spoiled food. Look at the scourge of St. Anthony's Fire in the Middle Ages from eating ergot infected grain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergot

We've known for decades that the two biggest reasons for modern era longer life expectancy is antibiotics and sanitation of all kinds, in the environment and in food handling.

I don't know when it's going to penetrate into some people's skulls.

bicicleur
13-02-20, 18:28
all papers today, without execption :

'Sharp increase in deaths and cases in Hubei'
while in fact it is because new criteria are used today

it this todays journalism? bringing fake news to draw the attention of possible readers?

at least Wall Street isn't reading the papers any more

Dagne
13-02-20, 19:07
The reported militarization of Wuhan's P4 Lab has raised new questions about the origin of the Covid-19 virus and the apparent cover-up that has occurred since it was first made public.
Following the removal of the most senior health officials in Wuhan yesterday (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51453848), Chinese State Media has just reported that Chen Wei, China's chief biochemical weapon defense expert, is now to be stationed in Wuhan to lead the efforts to overcome the deadly, pneumonia-like pathogen.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/sudden-militarization-wuhans-p4-lab-raises-new-questions-about-origin-deadly-covid-19

I don't like too much wild conspiracy theories, but this is a bit too much - how could China remove public health care officials and install instead expert on biochemical weapons !?
One really starts to wonder about the origins of the Covid-19 if it is the biochemical weapons expert who knows best how to deal with the situation, better than doctors...

I hope that scientists may be able to distinguish now or in the future if this virus did originate from bats with intermediaries pangolins or it might have been manufactured.

Angela
13-02-20, 19:41
When the CDC starts saying things like this it gets a little worrisome...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/12/cdc-director-more-person-to-person-coronavirus-infections-in-u-s-likely-but-containment-still-possible/?utm_content=buffer2c782&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_organic

"“We’re still going to see new cases. We’re probably going to see human-to-human transmission within the United States,” Dr. Robert Redfield said in an interview with STAT.He added that “at some point in time it is highly probable that we’ll have to transition to mitigation” as a public health strategy, using “social distancing measures (https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/03/coronavirus-spread-social-distancing-us/)” — for example, closure of certain public facilities — and other techniques to try to limit the number of people who become infected.


“We’re not going to be able to seal this virus from coming into this country,” Redfield said. But, he added, “we do gain time by prolonging the containment phase as long as we can, provided that we still believe that’s a useful public health effort.
“That’s where we are right now in the United States.”"

Well, they better freaking TRY HARDER to keep it out of the country.

"If the United States begins to see instances in several parts of the country in which a single case ignites four “generations” of human-to-human infection, Redfield said — meaning a person who contracted the virus infects a person, who infects another person, who then infects another person — then the CDC is likely to conclude containment of the virus has failed.
“Once we get greater than three — so four or more is our view — [generations of] human-to-human transmission in the community … and we see that in multiple areas of the country that are not contiguous, then basically the value of all of the containment strategies that we’ve done now then really become not effective,” he said. “That’s when we’re in full mitigation.”
The CDC director’s remarks came as a group of experts that advises the World Health Organization’s health emergencies program recommended (https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/S0140-6736(20)30374-3) that the world stay the current course of trying to halt spread of the new virus to stop it from becoming a human pathogen."

The idiots then turn around and say this:
"The WHO, which declared the outbreak (https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/who-declares-coronavirus-outbreak-a-global-health-emergency/) a public health emergency of international concern on Jan. 30, has urged countries not to restrict travel or trade with China. Later the same day, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Americans not to travel to China, raising his department’s travel warning for China to the highest possible level."

How about some cognitive dissonance! Thank God for some hard headed people in government.

"The State Department has ceased issuing visas to foreign nationals (https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/31/u-s-declares-public-health-emergency-over-coronavirus-bans-travel-from-china-by-foreign-nationals/) who have been in China in the past 14 days. Health officials are also quarantining people arriving in the United States for 14 days if they have set foot in Hubei province; people returning to the U.S. from other parts of China are being asked to self-quarantine for that period, which represents the estimated incubation period of the disease."

Not good enough. Forget the self-quarantine crap.

Oh, some preliminary data says men may be more susceptible. How could that work? Is that just in East Asians or generally. Are there different immune responses ethnically?
Also, when are they going to figure out the fatality rate? Two percent is quite different from 20%. Even at just over 2% the "Spanish flu" killed millions and millions worldwide. Not to mention the overloading of health care centers and the havoc it could create economically.

Yetos
13-02-20, 20:56
What I find very very disturbing
is that virus went abroad china.
but what about high touristic places?

did you heard about the virus in high chinese tourist concentration?

yet we seen in in US EU etc,

wonder what will happen if move to India, Indochina, Indonesia.

Angela
14-02-20, 00:25
What I find very very disturbing
is that virus went abroad china.
but what about high touristic places?

did you heard about the virus in high chinese tourist concentration?

yet we seen in in US EU etc,

wonder what will happen if move to India, Indochina, Indonesia.

It will be catastrophic; they don't have the infrastructure to handle it, or, frankly the hygiene systems.

So far, the cases in the west started with people who came into contact with travelers, sometimes businesspeople, from China. That was the case with the German sample. The British man contracted it in Singapore, but again from a Chinese business man. Business people from China went to meetings abroad and westerners became infected and, in turn, infected others.

The case of the cruise ship quarantined off the coast of Japan was indeed tourism. Sixty people are sick and more are falling ill every day. They have to get the healthy passengers and crew off that ship and into individual quarantine. That ship is probably like a petri dish for the virus at this point. It's probably on every surface, if not also in the air vents.

One point about bats: they are particularly dangerous in terms of spreading disease, whether directly or through intermediaries. Usually, bad viruses are limited in their impact because the host also dies. However, bats have an extraordinarily good immune system, and so the pathogens they spread to other creatures don't kill them. That's what happened in this case: the virus doesn't kill them, but it can kill the pangolin presumably, and from them it got to humans, a certain percentage of which do die.

I don't even want to consider that it was weaponized. Then all bets are off. So, let's hope that was fake news.

Angela
14-02-20, 20:54
Let's hope this isn't right either.


Studies in China suggest as many as 25% of patients need ICU care, something that could wreak havoc on health systems and cost billions. “There’s always chance #coronavirus (https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hashtag_click) can overwhelm health systems in a number of countries, even in countries with good health systems,” -Fauci




















(https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1228343885341945857)

Angela
15-02-20, 17:44
From the Wall Street Journal: Harvard public heath profesoor Mac Lipsitch, on coronavirus: “It is likely we’ll see a global pandemic...If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year.”

From an interview on British television with the Head of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and a disease modeler at Imperial College London, Niall Ferguson, he says that given how easily transmitted the virus is, the figure of infected is perhaps 60%, and that he’s looking at a fatality rate of 1%. That would be a fatality figure of more than 400,000 people in Britain alone.
Extrapolating to the world’s population of 7.8 billion, we would have an estimated 46.8 million deaths.

Please God, the fatality rate is lower. It's not even just the tragic and heart-breaking loss of life, as if that isn't horrific enough; it's that all our countries will be upended in every way possible, including economically.

What makes me really crazy is that while this is going on my politicians in Washington are wasting their time on goddamn stupidity.

Angela
16-02-20, 18:15
So, the conspiracy theory about the coronaviruses in Wuhan may have a shred of support.

"“Absolutely nothing about the genome sequence of the virus suggests that the virus was engineered in a lab,” he told The Street. “The genome sequence of the virus indicates that its progenitor was the bat coronavirus RaTG13 or a closely related bat coronavirus.”Because that bat coronavirus and other closely related bat coronaviruses are known to have been present in nature – such as in a cave in Yunnan province – the first human infection could have occurred as an accident of nature, Ebright said.
But he said, it is possible that the virus could have been leaked from a laboratory that was studying a virus, too.
“Because the bat coronavirus RaTG13 and closely related bat coronaviruses also are known to have been present in a lab (in the coronavirus collection at Wuhan Institute of Virology), the first human infection also could have occurred as a lab accident,” he said.



He noted that SARS, though first introduced to humans by nature, was also later reintroduced in a series of lab accidents.
The available data on the origin of human infection with the Wuhan coronavirus – whether from nature or a lab – Ebright said, “are consistent with either” cause."

https://www.thestreet.com/latest-news/questions-about-coronavirus-still-baffle-experts-after-wild-week-of-headlines

Great. Just great.

Carlos
16-02-20, 18:24
Come on, the coronavirus has left V.I.H.

Angela
16-02-20, 19:23
What on earth were Holland America Line and the Cambodian president thinking?

They let all but six passengers fly hither and thither and now some are testing positive for the disease. They should all have been quarantined.

Well, I know why Cambodia acted that way...the President is a toady of China's. China has heavily invested in Cambodia.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/16/world/asia/coronavirus-cruise-americans.html

Angela
22-02-20, 19:22
^^It was indeed stellar level stupidity.

New data is showing it can be dormant for 40 days before causing symptoms, i.e. no one, including the infected person, knows they're infected, and they can spread it all that time.

Great, a whole group of Americans has been released from quarantine after FOURTEEN days. That has been the protocol world wide.

No wonder people on that ship got infected and some of them have subsequently died. Maybe the "quarantine" was pretty successful. There were just people who hadn't shown any symptoms and were infecting people.


Global Times
@globaltimesnews
· 8h
#Wuhan has expropriated five #cruise ships which can offer 1,469 beds to serve as temporary hotels for medical staff amid the #COVID19 outbreak. As more medical groups from other regions come to support the virus epicenter, the city's hotel occupancy rate is almost at its peak.

That's under the category of just how stupid can people be???


COVID-19 in Italy: Infections in Codogno, Castiglione d'Adda and Casalpusterlengo and Padua (https://t.co/qlAmxhY79Z?amp=1)
Via Corriere della Sera: Coronavirus Italia, the infections in Codogno, Castiglione d'Adda and Casalpusterlengo and Padua. Excerpt from the Google translation: The new coronavirus (Covid-19) has... (https://t.co/qlAmxhY79Z?amp=1)
crofsblogs.typepad.com (https://t.co/qlAmxhY79Z?amp=1)


BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
· Fefile:///C:/Users/Owner/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image001.jpgb 21
NEW: Italian town of Codogno closes schools, bars, eateries, and sporting facilities until at least Sunday after 6 cases of coronavirus were confirmed - ANSA


Finally, a quick and sensible reaction. They should go further and institute delivery of groceries, and tell people to disinfect anything they receive.

spruithean
22-02-20, 19:45
Canada has announced the first case from someone who did not visit China, read here: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-19-iran-bc-south-korea-1.5472316

Stuvanè
22-02-20, 20:37
It's also spreading in the rest of Northern Italy, between Milan and Turin. They must ascertain whether they are linked to infections in the Lodi area

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_febbraio_22/coronavirus-chi-primo-contagiato-milano-aa57ef08-559c-11ea-8418-2150c9ca483e.shtml

Carlos
23-02-20, 02:47
I am a client of some Chinese and I was talking to them this afternoon. Some had put the sign of reforms in their premises, and the truth had been in their country, the place is already open and it is the same I do not see any reform and the other Chinese had returned according to him 10 days before the virus crown exploded in his country, the truth is that today he looked a little strange, a cold. We never know what destiny can bring us, we must have hope.

bicicleur
23-02-20, 15:02
^^It was indeed stellar level stupidity.

New data is showing it can be dormant for 40 days before causing symptoms, i.e. no one, including the infected person, knows they're infected, and they can spread it all that time.

Great, a whole group of Americans has been released from quarantine after FOURTEEN days. That has been the protocol world wide.

No wonder people on that ship got infected and some of them have subsequently died. Maybe the "quarantine" was pretty successful. There were just people who hadn't shown any symptoms and were infecting people.


Global Times
@globaltimesnews
· 8h
#Wuhan has expropriated five #cruise ships which can offer 1,469 beds to serve as temporary hotels for medical staff amid the #COVID19 outbreak. As more medical groups from other regions come to support the virus epicenter, the city's hotel occupancy rate is almost at its peak.

That's under the category of just how stupid can people be???


COVID-19 in Italy: Infections in Codogno, Castiglione d'Adda and Casalpusterlengo and Padua (https://t.co/qlAmxhY79Z?amp=1)
Via Corriere della Sera: Coronavirus Italia, the infections in Codogno, Castiglione d'Adda and Casalpusterlengo and Padua. Excerpt from the Google translation: The new coronavirus (Covid-19) has... (https://t.co/qlAmxhY79Z?amp=1)
crofsblogs.typepad.com (https://t.co/qlAmxhY79Z?amp=1)


BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
· Fefile:///C:/Users/Owner/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image001.jpgb 21
NEW: Italian town of Codogno closes schools, bars, eateries, and sporting facilities until at least Sunday after 6 cases of coronavirus were confirmed - ANSA


Finally, a quick and sensible reaction. They should go further and institute delivery of groceries, and tell people to disinfect anything they receive.

you'd think they should be able to devise a test to check people on the virus before symptoms become visible?

Dagne
23-02-20, 15:06
Great. Just great.


Wuhan Institute of Virology kept not only the virus, but hundreds of infected bats, too; Zhengli Shi, a renowned researcher working at the P4 lab, co-authored a controversial paper in 2015 to create a new virus by combining a coronavirus found in Chinese horseshoe bats with another that causes human-like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in mice.

The research for creating dangerous viruses is very controversial. US restricts that.

"to engineer a virus with the surface protein of the SHC014 coronavirus, found in horseshoe bats in China, and the backbone of one that causes human-like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in mice. The hybrid virus could infect human airway cells and caused disease in mice, according to the team’s results, which were published Nature Medicine

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502

"The creation of a chimeric SARS-like virus has scientists discussing the risks of gain-of-function research.
In October 2013, the US government put a stop to all federal funding for gain-of-function studies, with particular concern rising about influenza, SARS, and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). “NIH [National Institutes of Health] has funded such studies because they help define the fundamental nature of human-pathogen interactions, enable the assessment of the pandemic potential of emerging infectious agents, and inform public health and preparedness efforts,” NIH Director Francis Collins said “These studies, however, also entail biosafety and biosecurity risks, which need to be understood better.”



Overall, there are just too many coincides, - there was a P4 security lab in Wuhan able to research and engineer SARS like viruses, bats, Chinese scientists (there is at least one paper in Nature Medicine of 2015 which was co-authored by Chinese scientist from Wuhan lab on the creation of new SARS like virus that can affect people). In addition, China's defence budget has skyrocketed during the last 10 years, and there must have been plenty of funding for that kind of research, which, along with no moral barriers and open discussion about such dangerous research, are perfect conditions to have some kind of disaster like we are seeing now.

Angela
23-02-20, 22:11
Well, the New York Post, for one, agrees with you, Dagne.
https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/?utm_source=NYPTwitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=SocialFlow&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

The worst part of the article?

"And then there is this little-known fact: Some Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling their laboratory animals to street vendors after they have finished experimenting on them.You heard me right.
Instead of properly disposing of infected animals by cremation, as the law requires, they sell them on the side to make a little extra cash. Or, in some cases, a lot of extra cash. One Beijing researcher, now in jail, made a million dollars selling his monkeys and rats on the live animal market, where they eventually wound up in someone’s stomach."

I refuse to believe that a trained virulogist doesn't know better, which leave a complete lack of morality as the cause.

Meanwhile, in Italy the number keeps growing and growing. The Guardian newspaper in England calls the measure draconian. I couldn't disagree more.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/italy-draconian-measures-effort-halt-coronavirus-outbreak-spread?CMP=share_btn_tw

"About 50,000 residents in the towns under lockdown have been told to stay home and avoid social contact, while schools, shops and businesses – apart from chemists – have been closed and festivities and sporting events including Serie A football matches (https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/feb/23/three-serie-a-matches-coronavirus-outbreak-inter-milan) and the final two days of the Venice carnival have been cancelled.
Schools and universities will also be closed for at least a week in Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna and Piedmont, while similar measures have been taken in Liguria and Alto Adige."

Italy just passed a decree which, between others, gives cities with 1+ confirmed cases the power to: - Seal the city borders - Cancel any event - Quarantine the infected & their contacts - Only give access to shops & public transports to people wearing PPEs -

Fines and jail time will be imposed depending on the violations.

Dagne
23-02-20, 23:24
Chinese people really deserve better. If the suspicion is right, the story is simple - bioweapons experts created a virus, corrupt/negligent lab people released it and now the party is waging a glorious war against it, while hundreds of millions suffer or even die without being able to say anything about the situation they are at now.
If the virus is airborne - as even US experts are starting to admit now - it cannot be really stopped by quarantine measures, perhaps delayed which is also valuable. Let's hope Covid-2019 somehow burns out because of the hot summer weather or due to some other reasons. One good thing is that this virus is not so dangerous, as it seems, to children and teenagers who have weaker immune system compared to healthy adults, and are otherwise very susceptible to flu infections.
Perhaps even bioweapons engineering experts had a bit of consciousness and somehow managed to exclude children from the target group of this virus?

bicicleur
24-02-20, 12:06
there is panic in Italy and on the stock exchange markets, gold is rallying

blevins13
24-02-20, 17:30
there is panic in Italy and on the stock exchange markets, gold is rallying

In Italy should have been more carefully, now it will going to spread all over Europe.
Albania is completely vulnerable considering ties with Italy.




Sent from my iPhone using Eupedia Forum (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=89698)

Angela
24-02-20, 17:55
Actually, what Italy is doing is exactly what the WHO and other experts are saying SHOULD be done. It's not panic; it's prudence.

"@WHO (https://twitter.com/WHO)
#Covid19 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Covid19?src=hashtag_click) mission chief Bruce Aylward says it's not clear other countries have learned the lesson that containment measures have to be put in place quickly & aggressively."

So I guess the WHO is in a state of panic too?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic.html

"It’s now clear that the epidemic was never going to be contained. At most, its spread was slowed by the lockdown imposed in China and other countries’ efforts to identify infected people and anyone they might have been in contact with."

Slowing the spread gives hospitals time to prepare and scientists time to work on a vaccine.

"Governments should also conduct Covid-19 preparedness drills in local hospitals and expand hospitals’ temporary capacity, for example, by setting up emergency tents in parking lots (https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/), as is already happening in some places in the United States. To minimize the strain on overstressed acute-care hospitals, supportive nursing care might have to be provided, in makeshift facilities and patients’ homes, as was done during severe pandemics in the past, such as the Great Influenza of 1918-19."

"In light of the disease’s features, the quarantine of the passengers and crew members on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/22/world/asia/coronavirus-japan-cruise-ship.html) in Yokohama Bay in Japan looks like a cruel experiment: While confined, these people were forced to breathe recycled air for two weeks. The measure achieved little except to prove just how effective the virus is at spreading. Trying to stop influenza-like transmission is a bit like trying to stop the wind."

It's apparently a fecal wind in some cases:

"Nicholas A. Christakis
@NAChristakis
· 14h
COVID-19 may have both respiratory and fecal transmission: While a sneeze by someone with a respiratory disease can only infect others within a few meters, virus-laden gaseous plume from infected person with diarrhea can infect others up to 200 meters."

Salento
25-02-20, 03:00
If I had only invested in gold ... this Corona Virus is weakening me :annoyed: :)

I hope it ends soon and everyone feels good!

Angela
25-02-20, 04:55
If I had only invested in gold ... this Corona Virus is weakening me :annoyed: :)

I hope it ends soon and everyone feels good!

Amen to that.

Yetos
25-02-20, 06:24
If I had only invested in gold ... this Corona Virus is weakening me :annoyed: :)

I hope it ends soon and everyone feels good!


hm,

Do the media provide it as an Apocalypsis book sceen?
or it is an Apocalypsis story,

I think the next we will see is those guys speaking about God's wrath.

Angela
25-02-20, 16:22
I don't understand the situation in Iran. Are their ties to China that strong that there's a lot of travel between the countries?

What's clear is that they have not had the proper response. Maybe they need a little of Italy's "panic". :)

"In Qom religious figures refuse the advice of health ministry to close Shia shrine & instead hold defiant communal prayer. In a city that's epicenter of an epidemic killing people."

"Iran Deputy Health Minister tests positive for coronavirus a day after clearly unwell in public press conference. Iran nowhere close to being able to handle outbreak or their borders."

"Dr. Ghadir, top health official in Qom now infected, tells State TV: The health ministry ordered Qom officials "not to publish statistics" related to coronavirus.Wow."


Applying viral growth data metrics to a growing crisis

Reproduction number (#R0 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/R0?src=hashtag_click))

Case fatality rate (#CFR (https://twitter.com/hashtag/CFR?src=hashtag_click))

For the flu

R0 = ~1.3

CFR = ~0.1%

For SARS-CoV-2 (2019-nCoV)

R0 = ~2.6 (2x the flu)

CFR = ~1.5% (15x the flu)

If this analysis holds, we're not looking at mass death rates, but I'm sure no one wants to be in that 1.5% death rate, or wants to see their grandparents die of this. The bigger problem, and what might push that number higher is that some are claiming that 20% of those who come down with actual symptoms may need to be in intensive care for up to a month. No one is prepared for this and it will strain public health systems to the max.

Carlos
25-02-20, 16:43
A thousand isolated in the hotel of Tenerife where the Italian tourist with coronavirus stayed

National Police agents guard the establishment while performing health checks on employees and guests
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/02/25/actualidad/1582620880_129829.html

https://ep01.epimg.net/sociedad/imagenes/2020/02/25/actualidad/1582620880_129829_1582633791_noticia_normal_recort e1.jpg

What was going to be a winter holiday at a hotel on the beach in Tenerife has become, for hundreds of tourists, a forced confinement. Nearly a thousand people, including guests and workers, remain isolated at the H10 Costa Adeje Palace since Monday night an Italian tourist who was staying at the establishment tested positive for the coronavirus. National Police agents guard the complex, located in the south of the island, following orders from health authorities, according to police sources. There are also members of the Local Police of Adeje watching that no one enters or leaves the resort, which has all accesses closed, including that of the beach.

The alarm went off on Monday afternoon, when a natural doctor from Lombardy, the region of northern Italy where there are more cases in the country, went to a clinic with symptoms of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The patient had spent a week on vacation at the Tenerife hotel together with his wife. He tested positive in a first test conducted at the University Hospital Nuestra Señora de La Candelaria, in Santa Cruz de Tenerife, where he is admitted and isolated in good health, according to sources from the Ministry of Health. His wife and two other people in his circle also remain under observation in the same hospital, although they have not had symptoms of infection.

People cannot stay in their homes, who eager to travel for God
Being a tourist country will be a problem in such a situation. I don't know what they are waiting for to close the borders.

Angela
25-02-20, 21:15
What they saw in China must have scared the beejesus out of the WHO. Before they went they were making the case that countries should be careful about blocking transportation exchanges.

"Chinese took a very pragmatic approach and decided we are going to go after containment of this virus using that set of tools," Alyward said.


That translates to contact tracing and quarantine. (https://twitter.com/juliaoftoronto)


Julia Belluz (https://twitter.com/juliaoftoronto)
@juliaoftoronto (https://twitter.com/juliaoftoronto)

·
3h (https://twitter.com/juliaoftoronto/status/1232328009941766145)
Aylward says "China changed the course of this outbreak." All these measures, he says, are what led to the #covid19 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/covid19?src=hashtag_click) epidemic curve coming down in China.

Also: "Main driver is not widespread community transmission;" it's transmission in households.

Important finding: not huge transmission beyond what you can see clinically, Aylward says. I think that means subclinical/asymp transmission is not that significant. Also: "Main driver is not widespread community transmission;" it's transmission in households.

Translation: most is spread by people who are symptomatic.

Reminder from Aylward: "Young people do die of this disease and they die in industrialized countries." (Risk increases with age but there are deaths in young.) He says death rate in China might be low relative to other countries since they are doing good job keeping ppl alive

Not very comforting.

There's not a lot of evidence of undetected, mild cases in China yet.. .


Aylward on #covid19 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/covid19?src=hashtag_click) healthcare worker infections: in China, "most got infected in the community..." not in hospital
+

How can countries prepare for #covid19 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/covid19?src=hashtag_click)? Need beds to isolate people, plan to quarantine the really close contacts, oxygen support, lab capacity to test thousands of people per day, A
lward says (note, doesn't mention a China-like cordon sanitaire)

This is the time for a Manhattan project," Aylward says of #covid19 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/covid19?src=hashtag_click). "Get ready."

Salento
25-02-20, 21:32
live ... in Real Time ...
countries, maps, counter, news


https://youtu.be/Xz6A3xgYXac

Pax Augusta
25-02-20, 23:42
live ... in Real Time ...
countries, maps, counter, news


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Yetos
26-02-20, 01:50
I do not know if it true
but lately something is said about chloroquine

offcourse this might be proven wrong or fake news.

bicicleur
26-02-20, 13:33
Actually, what Italy is doing is exactly what the WHO and other experts are saying SHOULD be done. It's not panic; it's prudence.

"@WHO (https://twitter.com/WHO)
#Covid19 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Covid19?src=hashtag_click) mission chief Bruce Aylward says it's not clear other countries have learned the lesson that containment measures have to be put in place quickly & aggressively."

So I guess the WHO is in a state of panic too?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic.html

"It’s now clear that the epidemic was never going to be contained. At most, its spread was slowed by the lockdown imposed in China and other countries’ efforts to identify infected people and anyone they might have been in contact with."

Slowing the spread gives hospitals time to prepare and scientists time to work on a vaccine.

"Governments should also conduct Covid-19 preparedness drills in local hospitals and expand hospitals’ temporary capacity, for example, by setting up emergency tents in parking lots (https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/), as is already happening in some places in the United States. To minimize the strain on overstressed acute-care hospitals, supportive nursing care might have to be provided, in makeshift facilities and patients’ homes, as was done during severe pandemics in the past, such as the Great Influenza of 1918-19."

"In light of the disease’s features, the quarantine of the passengers and crew members on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/22/world/asia/coronavirus-japan-cruise-ship.html) in Yokohama Bay in Japan looks like a cruel experiment: While confined, these people were forced to breathe recycled air for two weeks. The measure achieved little except to prove just how effective the virus is at spreading. Trying to stop influenza-like transmission is a bit like trying to stop the wind."

It's apparently a fecal wind in some cases:

"Nicholas A. Christakis
@NAChristakis
· 14h
COVID-19 may have both respiratory and fecal transmission: While a sneeze by someone with a respiratory disease can only infect others within a few meters, virus-laden gaseous plume from infected person with diarrhea can infect others up to 200 meters."

there would have been a mistake from the hospital, they didn't put a man in immediate quarantine who was tested positive for Corona
they let him out on the street again, where he infected many others
that is how it spread so rapidly, and it will probably spread to other parts of Europe now, like it happened in Tenerife

Dagne
26-02-20, 14:23
https://i3.alfi.lt/33169/40/44.jpg
On Friday, this arena in Kaunas (capacity 16000) will be full of basketball fans from Milan ...
It is just perfect arrangement to import COVID-2019 to this country. Somehow even if sports games are suspended in North Italy, they are not in terms of going abroad.
Lithuanian authorities ruminate about the issue trying to push the responsibility to anyone but themselves and saying that the organisers of the sports event have been taking full responsibility for the consequences... the basketball league are saying tickets are sold out and they will go on with the games, and they are not getting into a hypothetical discussion like "what if someone from Milan comes with the virus without knowing it and infects hundreds of others..."

Well perhaps it is a national strategy after all - to get your country infected sooner because COVID-19 is not going away anyway and getting sick is the only way to overcome it...

Angela
26-02-20, 16:15
https://i3.alfi.lt/33169/40/44.jpg
On Friday, this arena in Kaunas (capacity 16000) will be full of basketball fans from Milan ...
It is just perfect arrangement to import COVID-2019 to this country. Somehow even if sports games are suspended in North Italy, they are not in terms of going abroad.
Lithuanian authorities ruminate about the issue trying to push the responsibility to anyone but themselves and saying that the organisers of the sports event have been taking full responsibility for the consequences... the basketball league are saying tickets are sold out and they will go on with the games, and they are not getting into a hypothetical discussion like "what if someone from Milan comes with the virus without knowing it and infects hundreds of others..."

Well perhaps it is a national strategy after all - to get your country infected sooner because COVID-19 is not going away anyway and getting sick is the only way to overcome it...

I completely disagree. It's easy to say, like some epidemiologists have been saying, that "eventually" 40-70% of the world's population will be infected. Does that mean take your chances "now" when there's no vaccine? We don't know enough about this virus yet. What if the fatality rate is indeed 2%? That's 2% of your entire population, and it's not going to be all old people.

They should cancel it, or do what they're doing in some parts of Italy. The players get tested and they play in an empty stadium. Watch it on tv or on online for goodness' sakes.

Dagne
26-02-20, 16:42
I was just kidding. Of course it is not good to get affected with this virus. Let's hope the games with Milan team will be cancelled after all.

Angela
26-02-20, 17:22
I was just kidding. Of course it is not good to get affected with this virus. Let's hope the games with Milan team will be cancelled after all.

Sorry. Face to face discussions are always so much clearer.

Sometimes I wish I didn't have this addiction to having the news on as backdrop all day.

Here is Australia's take on it. So

"The most extreme scenario for Australia re: #Covid_19 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Covid_19?src=hashtag_click) - If "50% of Australians became infected, between 260,000 and 390,000 people would die, more than 1.8 million people would need a hospital bed and more than 650,000 people would need an ICU bed.""

So, as a result they're instituting emergency legislation and planning.

What is gripping Washington? Whether Russia is again planting disinformation on social media to benefit Trump and Bernie Sanders.

Madness.

I don't know who is buying up all the N95 respirator masks but everything on amazon is on backorder. I also called around to local outlets, and everything is gone. I guess regular people are paying attention.

Dagne
26-02-20, 17:39
Respirators and surgical masks are all gone from LT pharmacies/internet shops, too. Even though there weren't a single infection here. People like stocking up things.
Besides, I suppose face masks are made in China in any case, and with stopped factories in China and local demand it is just not enough of them for China alone.

By the way, in order to improve immune system's response to virus, it is better to get enough of sleep which that can help much more than a face mask. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqZYEgREuZ8

According to some research (referred to in video above) sleep deprivation can lessen immune systems response by 5 times, or, in other words, good regular sleep is like drugs against virus which increase your chances by 80%.

Yetos
27-02-20, 16:33
it seems that the scientific aproach to new coronavirus has changed,

the late opinion is that China wanted to impress the world, that is effective against pandemias.
and made all this noise.

the average mortality (death to infected) is about 1 / 40
which makes it serious but not as much as other viruses like the influenza,

Coronavirus is mainly exterminator of 3rd and 4rth age,
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/




AGE

DEATH RATE*



80+ years old


14.8%




70-79 years old


8.0%




60-69 years old


3.6%




50-59 years old


1.3%




40-49 years old


0.4%




30-39 years old


0.2%




20-29 years old


0.2%




10-19 years old


0.2%



0-9 years old

no fatalities




on the other hand this winter influenza statistically had multiplied deaths per infected,
the H1N1 since 2009 and H3N2 seems more fatal per infected.

Angela
27-02-20, 18:43
Italy has been looking at contacts with East Asians for Patient 0.
Could it instead have been Iran? Can’t say I’m surprised. The powers that be in Iran issued a statement that containment is old fashioned and not the way to approach this. I guess they think one cleric’s advice to clean their anuses with violet oil is more modern.

Just in: Former Iranian Ambassador to Vatican died of #COVID19 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hashtag_click) infection.

Iran’s Vice president Massoumeh Ebtekar has been tested positive to #Coronavirus (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Coronavirus?src=hashtag_click). Ebtekar was present at yesterday’s cabinet meeting, sitting not far from President Rouhani. 2 Mps and a deputy health minister have said in past days that they have been infected.

Caixin Global: 14% of Recovered #Covid19usa (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Covid19usa?src=hashtag_click) Patients in Guangdong Tested Positive Again.this is very worrying, suggesting there is no memory antibody response, just innate immunity. Will make #vaccine (https://twitter.com/hashtag/vaccine?src=hashtag_click) effort more difficult. https://caixinglobal.com/2020-02-26/14-of-recovered-covid-19-patients-in-guangdong-tested-positive-again-101520415.html… (https://t.co/WNVFySu3t5?amp=1)

The first U.S. patient with transmission here in the U.S. went to two hospitals. The first one sent him to a U.C. Davis center in Sacramento. The hospitals say they asked for a sample to be tested by the CDC but it wasn’t done.
It was probably that they don’t yet have enough testing kits yets. This doesn’t absolve the hospitals of responsibility imo. If there was really serious lung involvement, they shouldn’t have sent him home. How many did he infect? Did they at least tell him to self-isolate while they waited for testing?

CDC+state labs are far below capacity for testing needed to contain and control #COVID19 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hashtag_click). CDC & FDA should recognize the incredible abundance of resources at expert US academic hospital (and industry) labs and allow us to step in to help - at the least for our own patients.

Sounds smart to me:
Israel warns its citizens to avoid ALL international travel over coronavirus fears in unprecedented move

Maciamo
27-02-20, 19:45
I am not sure that the Coronavirus scare is really deserved.

According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza), there are 3 to 5 million cases of influenza each year, which kill approximately 300,000 to 650,000 people. That's a 10% fatality rate. The flu season lasts about one month in one specific country, state or region.

The Coronavirus epidemics started 2 months ago and according to the ECDC (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases) so far there have been 82,000 people infected worldwide and 2,800 deaths (3.5% fatality rate). In comparison, there has been 13 million cases of influenza (https://www.contagionlive.com/news/cdc-reports-13-million-flu-cases-thus-far-in-201920-season) and thousands of deaths so far this winter! And that is despite the anti-contamination measures already taken in many countries for Covid-19 (which also work to reduce the spread of influenza)!

Besides it looks like the media are making major reporting errors. Even the trusted BBC reports in this article (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51048366) that the death rate for Covid-19 is between 1% and 2%, considerably less than the European CDC stats. But even at 3.5%, Covid-19 is 3 times less deadly than the typical yearly influenza.

Tutkun Arnaut
27-02-20, 20:20
I am not sure that the Coronavirus scare is really deserved.

According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza), there are 3 to 5 million cases of influenza each year, which kill approximately 300,000 to 650,000 people. That's a 10% fatality rate. The flu season lasts about one month in one specific country, state or region.

The Coronavirus epidemics started 2 months ago and according to the ECDC (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases) so far there have been 82,000 people infected worldwide and 2,800 deaths (3.5% fatality rate). In comparison, there has been 13 million cases of influenza (https://www.contagionlive.com/news/cdc-reports-13-million-flu-cases-thus-far-in-201920-season) and thousands of deaths so far this winter! And that is despite the anti-contamination measures already taken in many countries for Covid-19 (which also work to reduce the spread of influenza)!

Besides it looks like the media are making major reporting errors. Even the trusted BBC reports in this article (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51048366) that the death rate for Covid-19 is between 1% and 2%, considerably less than the European CDC stats. But even at 3.5%, Covid-19 is 3 times less deadly than the typical yearly influenza.
'
Even if its 3% fatality rate, given that this flu is heavily contagious if left unchecked it means 25 million Europeans could die. That's not a number to be ignored. This virus is heavily democratic, it kills rich and pour, young and old
Other strains of the flu are repetitive so people have some kind of immunity to fight it, or there is some medicine helping to fight it. COV-19 is brand new strain coming from animals, with no known medicine to fight

Yetos
27-02-20, 22:16
'
Even if its 3% fatality rate, given that this flu is heavily contagious if left unchecked it means 25 million Europeans could die. That's not a number to be ignored. This virus is heavily democratic, it kills rich and pour, young and old
Other strains of the flu are repetitive so people have some kind of immunity to fight it, or there is some medicine helping to fight it. COV-19 is brand new strain coming from animals, with no known medicine to fight



Influenza has no antidote also
H1N1 is also from animals (birds and pigs)
there are helping medicines like Tamiflu in my country
But in no way are considered as influenza cure antibiotic
The only defence against influenza is to make a vaccin every year
BUT THIS DOES NOT PROTECT You 100%
27 out 77 deaths from Influenza this year had made the vaccin against

considering that 77 out of 259 of novel influenza 2018-2019 were fatal in my country this year.
seems more threatening than nCOD19

an interesting aproach to modern influenza is the number of swallows, pigeons, etc left in Europe

Angela
28-02-20, 00:09
The CFR or Case fatality rate for influenza is usually less than .1%.

"The CFR for the Spanish (1918) flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic) was >2.5%,[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate#cite_note-taubenberger2006-3) but about 0.1% for the Asian (1956-58) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H2N2#Asian_flu) and Hong Kong (1968-69) flus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H3N2#Hong_Kong_Flu_(1968 %E2%80%931969)),[4] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate#cite_note-li2008-4) and <0.1% for other influenza pandemics.[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate#cite_note-taubenberger2006-3)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

According to the CDC these are the correct stats for the U.S. in 2017-2018, which was a particularly bad year:

The CDC predicts that at least 12,000 Americans will die from the flu in any given year. As many as 61,000 people died in the 2017-2018 flu season, and 45 million were infected.
Coronavirus is much more infectious. The WHO put out a figure of 40-70% infection rate. The United States has a population of 327 million. At a 50% infection rate that would be 163 million infected versus 45 million.

Now, if the fatality rate really is the 2% figure being discussed, then we'd be looking not at 61,000 dead, but 3,260,000 dead. Thankfully, scientists have been speculating that the figure might be lower because perhaps China doesn't have the number of infected but asymptomatic, or just a regular flu like experience. That's why they were concerned when the WHO said, after their trip to China, that there aren't very many who get a mild, flu like experience. (China's fatality rate is 3.5%)

Let's ignore all that and use a figure of 1%. That's still 1,600,000 people dead versus 61,000 dead.

Then there's the 20% of infected who need ICU. 20% of half the population of the U.S. is an unimaginable catastrophe. Who has that kind of capacity?

That's why the CDC is sounding the alarm.

Yetos
28-02-20, 00:55
That is because we do not a vaccin against Coronas yet,
neither a helping treaty medicine
something is said about chloraquine, but nothing official.

Yet considering that even 27 out of 77 deaths had made the annual vaccin
I think the numbers give odd vision
same as in 2009, only this time towards Corona

Maciamo
28-02-20, 12:49
The CFR or Case fatality rate for influenza is usually less than .1%.

"The CFR for the Spanish (1918) flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic) was >2.5%,[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate#cite_note-taubenberger2006-3) but about 0.1% for the Asian (1956-58) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H2N2#Asian_flu) and Hong Kong (1968-69) flus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H3N2#Hong_Kong_Flu_(1968 %E2%80%931969)),[4] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate#cite_note-li2008-4) and <0.1% for other influenza pandemics.[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate#cite_note-taubenberger2006-3)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

According to the CDC these are the correct stats for the U.S. in 2017-2018, which was a particularly bad year:

The CDC predicts that at least 12,000 Americans will die from the flu in any given year. As many as 61,000 people died in the 2017-2018 flu season, and 45 million were infected.
Coronavirus is much more infectious. The WHO put out a figure of 40-70% infection rate. The United States has a population of 327 million. At a 50% infection rate that would be 163 million infected versus 45 million.

Now, if the fatality rate really is the 2% figure being discussed, then we'd be looking not at 61,000 dead, but 3,260,000 dead. Thankfully, scientists have been speculating that the figure might be lower because perhaps China doesn't have the number of infected but asymptomatic, or just a regular flu like experience. That's why they were concerned when the WHO said, after their trip to China, that there aren't very many who get a mild, flu like experience. (China's fatality rate is 3.5%)

Let's ignore all that and use a figure of 1%. That's still 1,600,000 people dead versus 61,000 dead.

Then there's the 20% of infected who need ICU. 20% of half the population of the U.S. is an unimaginable catastrophe. Who has that kind of capacity?

That's why the CDC is sounding the alarm.

Ok, it seems that the information on Wikipedia was misleading. Here is what it said:

"Influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season), resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths."

300,000 deaths per 3 million cases would be a 10% fatality rate, but apparently that's only for severe cases. Further down the page it says:



Name
Date
Subtype
People infected (est.)
Deaths
Case fatality rate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate)
Pandemic Severity Index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_Severity_Index)


1889–90 flu pandemic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%9390_flu_pandemic)[212] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-212)
1889–90
Likely H3N8 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H3N8) or H2N2 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H2N2)
Unknown
1 million
0.15%
Unknown


Spanish flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu)[213] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-213)
1918–20
H1N1 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H1N1)
33% (500 million)[214] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-214)
20–100 million
2–3%[215] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-215)
5


Asian flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H2N2#Asian_flu)
1957–58
H2N2 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H2N2)
8–33% (250 million – 1 billion[216] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-216))
1–1.5 million
<0.2%[217] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-217)
2


Hong Kong flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H3N2#Hong_Kong_Flu)
1968–69
H3N2 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H3N2)
7–28% (250 million – 1 billion[218] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-218))
0.75–1 million
<0.2%[219] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-219)
2


Russian flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N1#Russian_flu)
1977–78
H1N1 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H1N1)
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown


2009 flu pandemic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic)[220] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-220)[221] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-221)
2009–10
H1N1/09 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_H1N1/09_virus)
10–200 million[222] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-222)
105,700–395,600[223] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-223)
0.03%[224] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-224)
Unknown


Seasonal flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season)[t 1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-225)
Every year
Mainly A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenzavirus_B)
5–15% (340 million – 1 billion)[225] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-226)
290,000–650,000/year[226] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-227)
<0.1%[227] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-228)
N/A



So there can be up to 1 billion people infected by the seasonal flu each year. That's much more than I expected. The CDC report of 13 millions cases of flu this year also mislead me as I thought it was worldwide, but it was only for the USA (it was not mentioned anywhere on the page I linked above).

So the fatality rate is higher for Covid-19 than the seasonal flu, but the number of cases are incredibly low in comparison so far. The question is how long can the pandemic last before the virus mutates and loses strength? With the seasonal flu it's a few weeks or months. Can Covid-19 last for a whole year or more? That would be more worrying.

Regio X
28-02-20, 13:28
See:
https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19/map.html

Angela
28-02-20, 16:39
Ok, it seems that the information on Wikipedia was misleading. Here is what it said:

"Influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season), resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths."

300,000 deaths per 3 million cases would be a 10% fatality rate, but apparently that's only for severe cases. Further down the page it says:



Name
Date
Subtype
People infected (est.)
Deaths
Case fatality rate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate)
Pandemic Severity Index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_Severity_Index)


1889–90 flu pandemic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%9390_flu_pandemic)[212] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-212)
1889–90
Likely H3N8 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H3N8) or H2N2 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H2N2)
Unknown
1 million
0.15%
Unknown


Spanish flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu)[213] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-213)
1918–20
H1N1 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H1N1)
33% (500 million)[214] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-214)
20–100 million
2–3%[215] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-215)
5


Asian flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H2N2#Asian_flu)
1957–58
H2N2 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H2N2)
8–33% (250 million – 1 billion[216] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-216))
1–1.5 million
<0.2%[217] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-217)
2


Hong Kong flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H3N2#Hong_Kong_Flu)
1968–69
H3N2 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H3N2)
7–28% (250 million – 1 billion[218] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-218))
0.75–1 million
<0.2%[219] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-219)
2


Russian flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N1#Russian_flu)
1977–78
H1N1 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H1N1)
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown


2009 flu pandemic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic)[220] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-220)[221] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-221)
2009–10
H1N1/09 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_H1N1/09_virus)
10–200 million[222] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-222)
105,700–395,600[223] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-223)
0.03%[224] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-224)
Unknown


Seasonal flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season)[t 1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-225)
Every year
Mainly A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenzavirus_B)
5–15% (340 million – 1 billion)[225] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-226)
290,000–650,000/year[226] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-227)
<0.1%[227] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#cite_note-228)
N/A



So there can be up to 1 billion people infected by the seasonal flu each year. That's much more than I expected. The CDC report of 13 millions cases of flu this year also mislead me as I thought it was worldwide, but it was only for the USA (it was not mentioned anywhere on the page I linked above).

So the fatality rate is higher for Covid-19 than the seasonal flu, but the number of cases are incredibly low in comparison so far. The question is how long can the pandemic last before the virus mutates and loses strength? With the seasonal flu it's a few weeks or months. Can Covid-19 last for a whole year or more? That would be more worrying.

The latest figures from an epidemiologist I saw are 15% of infected require hospitalization and 1-2% die, which is 10-20X the lethality of the seasonal flu.

One of the biggest problems is the strain this would put on the health care system if within a short period of time there would be this flood of people who need to be in ICU and needing breathing assistance. Nobody has that kind of capacity.

Any one individual has a very low chance of dying from this thing even if infected unless the person is over 60 or 70 and has pre-existing conditions. I think the point is that it is everyone's civic duty to follow recommendations so that the incidence of serious disease is kept down, thus minimizing the disruption to our societies as a whole.

What is indeed worrying is when the CDC says it may become a "seasonal" type of flu, although Dr. Fauci said they hope to have a vaccine ready for distribution within a year to eighteen months.

What's also upsetting is that they can't pinpoint the source because there are stretches of dna, the ones making it far more contagious, which appear in diseases like AIDS and Ebola, but not in coronavirus strains. I don't go in for conspiracy theories, so let's hope there's some "natural" explanation.

Dagne
28-02-20, 20:50
So there can be up to 1 billion people infected by the seasonal flu each year. That's much more than I expected. The CDC report of 13 millions cases of flu this year also mislead me as I thought it was worldwide, but it was only for the USA (it was not mentioned anywhere on the page I linked above).

So the fatality rate is higher for Covid-19 than the seasonal flu, but the number of cases are incredibly low in comparison so far. The question is how long can the pandemic last before the virus mutates and loses strength? With the seasonal flu it's a few weeks or months. Can Covid-19 last for a whole year or more? That would be more worrying.

The point is that it is a novel corona virus for people, which means that unlike in case of seasonal flu, no one has immunity to it - so everyone can get infected at the same time.

Without preventive measures, with a virus which is novel to people, circa 70% of population may get infected during one year.

The capacity to treat people is rather limited - for instance in LT there are at best up to 1000 beds suitable for such patients throughout the country, however, there may be up to 150 000 patients with serious complications, where supportive help in hospital is required. They would not fall ill everyone at once but throughout the year, but still that is many more than the health system can take.

Further, setting quarantine for those who get ill with moderate or light symptoms would be a great challenge, because of share number of people who may get sick and also because this virus is transmitted through fecal-oral route, too. To put it simply, it is easily transmitted because of using the same bathroom as viruses get into the air when we flush. And even more than than - because of ventilation systems in apartment blocks, there is a risk that all who live above or below a sick person (their bathroom) will get infected through the ventilation system. So it is not enough to send people home to get isolated when they live in apartment blocks. In hospitals they use negative pressure rooms and have special viral filtering systems for cleaning the air. But not in apartments, or offices or large liner ships... so washing your hands and not touching face as well as avoiding social contacts is not enough to protect yourself in case of this virus.

Besides, according to reports from China, about 14% of people who recovered from this virus are getting ill again, which is again not like with seasonal flu, where people don't get infected repeatedly. The later repeated infection/or prolonged period during which recovered people may be shedding virus is something to be taken into consideration when estimating consequences.

ihype02
28-02-20, 21:57
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b3/COVID-19-outbreak-timeline.gif
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b3/COVID-19-outbreak-timeline.gif

Angela
28-02-20, 22:49
The point is that it is a novel corona virus for people, which means that unlike in case of seasonal flu, no one has immunity to it - so everyone can get infected at the same time.

Without preventive measures, with a virus which is novel to people, circa 70% of population may get infected during one year.

The capacity to treat people is rather limited - for instance in LT there are at best up to 1000 beds suitable for such patients throughout the country, however, there may be up to 150 000 patients with serious complications, where supportive help in hospital is required. They would not fall ill everyone at once but throughout the year, but still that is many more than the health system can take.

Further, setting quarantine for those who get ill with moderate or light symptoms would be a great challenge, because of share number of people who may get sick and also because this virus is transmitted through fecal-oral route, too. To put it simply, it is easily transmitted because of using the same bathroom as viruses get into the air when we flush. And even more than than - because of ventilation systems in apartment blocks, there is a risk that all who live above or below a sick person (their bathroom) will get infected through the ventilation system. So it is not enough to send people home to get isolated when they live in apartment blocks. In hospitals they use negative pressure rooms and have special viral filtering systems for cleaning the air. But not in apartments, or offices or large liner ships... so washing your hands and not touching face as well as avoiding social contacts is not enough to protect yourself in case of this virus.

Besides, according to reports from China, about 14% of people who recovered from this virus are getting ill again, which is again not like with seasonal flu, where people don't get infected repeatedly. The later repeated infection/or prolonged period during which recovered people may be shedding virus is something to be taken into consideration when estimating consequences.

All good points.

These are the results of a huge epidemiological study out of China. The results have to be put into perspective, however. Are there hundreds of thousands if not millions of cases with no symptoms or only mild symptoms? That would bring the number of severe cases requiring hospitalization and the case fatality rate way down.

https://i.imgur.com/kUYb7tm.png

Carlos
29-02-20, 06:10
Apparently there are cases in China of reinfected and a Chinese has infected her dog and if it is transmissible to dogs or other pets and other animals and vice versa this can be something even more serious if possible.

Dagne
29-02-20, 18:35
Apparently there are cases in China of reinfected and a Chinese has infected her dog and if it is transmissible to dogs or other pets and other animals and vice versa this can be something even more serious if possible.

Somehow, I don't think viruses can so easily jump from one species to another. Perhaps dog was just contaminated with the virus (like after licking his owner's face :0), rather than being a virus carrier himself. If this novel coronavirus can stay on surfaces for a long time (weeks) then perhaps it can "live" on pets likewise on other unanimated places. In any case WHO say that there is no evidence that dogs or cat can get infected.

https://www.who.int/images/default-source/health-topics/coronavirus/myth-busters/mythbuster-1.tmb-1024v.png?sfvrsn=1557896e_3

Angela
29-02-20, 20:08
Somehow, I don't think viruses can so easily jump from one species to another. Perhaps dog was just contaminated with the virus (like after licking his owner's face :0), rather than being a virus carrier himself. If this novel coronavirus can stay on surfaces for a long time (weeks) then perhaps it can "live" on pets likewise on other unanimated places. In any case WHO say that there is no evidence that dogs or cat can get infected.

https://www.who.int/images/default-source/health-topics/coronavirus/myth-busters/mythbuster-1.tmb-1024v.png?sfvrsn=1557896e_3

I think that's right. What may have happened is that there was coronavirus on the dog's coat from contact with a human.

I saw the other day that China has now outlawed the sale of dog and cat meat in the "wet" markets. Leaving aside the horror that this means they are commonly sold for human consumption, anyone butchering a dog or cat for food might have picked up the virus from the pelts.

For the duration it might be a good idea to not let other people pet your animals.

I certainly don't think the Chinese solution of police killing innocent dogs and people throwing cats out of windows, which has been reported, is the solution.

Anyone trying to shoot my dog is going to have a real problem on his hands.

Angela
29-02-20, 21:20
I think that's right. What may have happened is that there was coronavirus on the dog's coat from contact with a human.

I saw the other day that China has now outlawed the sale of dog and cat meat in the "wet" markets. Leaving aside the horror that this means they are commonly sold for human consumption, anyone butchering a dog or cat for food might have picked up the virus from the pelts.

For the duration it might be a good idea to not let other people pet your animals.

I certainly don't think the Chinese solution of police killing innocent dogs and people throwing cats out of windows, which has been reported, is the solution.

Anyone trying to shoot my dog is going to have a real problem on his hands.

Now this is truly disgusting.

The CDC says only 31% of men and 65% of women wash their hands after using the restroom. https://wb.md/2q0TBIn


"In #Wenzhou (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Wenzhou?src=hashtag_click), factory manager told they must consume 3000 kWh electricity by midnight, as authorities use electricity usage as a criterion of re-open rate. Even the factory has not re-opened for lack of supply and manpower due to #COVID2019 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID2019?src=hashtag_click), the manager had to... switch on all the air conditioners and other equipment to ensure they achieve their quota".

Anyone want to bet on the fact that the info we're getting from China is accurate?

I'm not at all surprised given that Iran is refusing to put quarantine measures into practice and practicing "Inshallah". Somehow God helps those who help themselves has not made a dent there.
"Ontario has just confirmed its 8th case of #COVID19 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hashtag_click) in a patient who arrived in Toronto from Egypt on Feb. 20. Egyptian health authorities have denied having cases of the disease. Yesterday, France confirmed two patients who recently travelled to Egypt tested positive."

Like I said...
""Inundated public hospitals sent many feverish patients home, telling them to lock themselves in their apartment. But residents said the practice allowed the virus to spread, ensnaring entire families...and jumping from neighbor to neighbor.""

Yetos
29-02-20, 21:56
Anyone trying to shoot my dog is going to have a real problem on his hands.

Anyone who even thinks to harm my dog has already problem.
not from me, but from the dog itshelf.

Maciamo
29-02-20, 22:00
The CDC says only 31% of men and 65% of women wash their hands after using the restroom.


Unbelievable! I wash my hands every single time after going to the toilet, even when I get up half-asleep in the middle of the night.

Carlos
29-02-20, 22:38
Somehow, I don't think viruses can so easily jump from one species to another. Perhaps dog was just contaminated with the virus (like after licking his owner's face :0), rather than being a virus carrier himself. If this novel coronavirus can stay on surfaces for a long time (weeks) then perhaps it can "live" on pets likewise on other unanimated places. In any case WHO say that there is no evidence that dogs or cat can get infected.

https://www.who.int/images/default-source/health-topics/coronavirus/myth-busters/mythbuster-1.tmb-1024v.png?sfvrsn=1557896e_3

It would be a disaster that I don't even want to think about and we would see things we would never have imagined that could be done with those poor animals.

It looked like a Pomeranian, I don't want to look for the news, but most likely, they have requisitioned the dog and are experimenting with it in a secret laboratory after they will sacrifice it safely.

torzio
29-02-20, 22:56
I wash hands before and after

don't know where my hands been before I touch the member

Dagne
29-02-20, 23:38
It would be a disaster that I don't even want to think about and we would see things we would never have imagined that could be done with those poor animals.

It looked like a Pomeranian, I don't want to look for the news, but most likely, they have requisitioned the dog and are experimenting with it in a secret laboratory after they will sacrifice it safely.

One can simply wash their dog with shampoo and that will do to stop coronavirus. I also wash my dog's mouth and muzzle with soap when he'd return home after escaping and wondering nobody knows where.

Yetos
01-03-20, 03:04
I wash hands before and after

don't know where my hands been before I touch the member

that is my policy too,
I always wash them carefully before,
and many times I wash them after using money.
I think money is most dirty thing we touch every day,

Maciamo
01-03-20, 13:38
that is my policy too,
I always wash them carefully before,
and many times I wash them after using money.
I think money is most dirty thing we touch every day,

Indeed, and I imagine that the Coronavirus could easily spread through coins and banknotes exchanged from person to person. Cards aren't necessarily safer (unless contactless) as people have to input their pin code and the keyboards in shops might be contaminated too.

Angela
02-03-20, 03:36
Povera Italia. 1600 infected, and 29 dead, and the doctors say it's not only old people who are in intensive care. Not to mention what it's doing to the economy. How the hell did it get there, and when?

According to an #Italy (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Italy?src=hashtag_click) Study:the mutation that transmitted it to man has been reconstructed Campus Bio-Medico of Rome has reconstructed the genealogical tree of the virus. The jump of species from animal to man "took place between 20 and 25 November"

According to this #SARSCoV2 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/SARSCoV2?src=hashtag_click) genetic analysis the viral strain in Washington State traces to a Chinese strain from Fujian, likely arriving in Seattle area before January 15.If this is true, #COVID19 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hashtag_click) has been in the area, undetected, for 6 weeks.https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_division=Washington (https://t.co/tVuFN7EnQa?amp=1)

One of those infected is a Postal worker.

That's just great. I guess you shouldn't open any mail coming from Seattle. Oh vey!

Well, New York has a large Chinese community as well, so it's only a matter of time.

"Bat soup pandemic, South Korean death cults, infected Iranian health ministers- if this were a movie script it would be returned for being too weird."
The above refers to the fact that 60% of the Korean cases can be traced to a religious sect which is hoping for the end of the world. Apparently, some members went to Wuhan. The government says there have been reports they're deliberately spreading it to bring the end of the world closer.

Meanwhile, one idiot has posted that people feeling ill should go to Trump rallies. This is the filth that's in the minds of some people? Good God.
Ali A Rizvi is the monster who still has a working Twitter account while thousands of conservatives have been kicked off or deprived of followers. Even though he's a vulture, I hope Paul Singer does manage to buy it and ousts Dorsey.



https://i.imgur.com/0QdAqLu.png

It doesn't show the trail into Iran, and yet estimates are as high as 23,000 infected.

Mistakes have been made all over because doctors were following guidelines saying only test people with contact with China, but what the Chinese government did in the early stages of the outbreak is just CRIMINAL. By punishing doctors who talked about it, hiding the incidence, and not alerting the world as soon as they knew there was a new virus spreading, they are responsible for the outbreaks in other countries.

Meanwhile, this is also what they're doing:
Painstaking research by @xu_xiuzhong (https://twitter.com/xu_xiuzhong)
and the @ASPI_org (https://twitter.com/ASPI_org)
team shows that at least 80,000 Uighurs have been transferred out of Xinjiang to work in factories and undergo ideological training, all under constant surveillance. Their full report is out now:

Just like the Nazi camps. Fascist or Communist, it's all the same.

Angela
03-03-20, 00:31
It's becoming a little clearer why Co-Vid 19 was under the radar in the U.S. and then started popping out. The same thing may have happened in Italy.

Doctors in Washington State think they may have found the first case of Coronavirus in a specimen taken from a man who traveled from Wuhan to Seattle in early January. His sample is dated January 15th. It matches the strain in the teenage boy just recently tested.

The damn virus wasn't even isolated and announced to the world until January 8th, and travel from China and people who had been in China weren't prohibited from entering the U.S. until January 31st, when, of course, the usual suspects maintained that Trump was a racist for ordering it.

The same thing may have happened in Italy. They aren't looking back far enough, or the initial person didn't have a strong enough response to the virus to even go to a hospital and give a sample.

Of course, Chinese doctors, including one who ultimately died of the virus, knew there was a new virus spreading in early December, but they were silenced and punished and the rest of the world wasn't informed.

Then, there's the fact that it takes time to figure out all the important factors involved with a new virus. The WHO and CDC were using a 14 day incubation and therefore quarantine period. So, an evacuee from China was released after 14 days, and then came down with Co-Vid 19 and had to go into the hospital. The first test produced by the CDC was also faulty.

Ultimately, however, this may all have been inevitable given that people could have been leaving China carrying the virus all of December and the first half of January before anyone in the outside world knew there was a problem. So, we're talking about at least six weeks, maybe actually eight weeks because there wasn't widespread concern really until the beginning of February.

The issue now is that the U.S. and E.U. countries, when the number of hospital beds run out, are not going to send people home and literally lock them in with their families to all either recover or die in order to stop the spread. So, it may wind up that other countries will pay more of a price than China, where the fault lies.

It doesn't help that people are damn stupid, or just refuse to face reality, or don't want to be labeled or quarantined, and so lie to public health officers.

"3 of 4 new cases lied about not having experienced symptoms when contacted by MOH during contact tracing. All 3 might have passed it onwards while sick. Unreal."

johen
03-03-20, 20:06
looks like china becomes safe and the other world dangerous. Their traditional policy seems to work.


for starters, the people’s liberation army has been openly threatening to intervene to shut down the protests against lam’s government. and in cases where pro-government “triad” thugs, most likely based on the mainland, have shown up to assail protesters, the police have been conveniently absent. as everyone in hong kong knows, these extrajudicial beatings had to have been sanctioned by xi’s government. more ominously, xi may have already decided that the time for “one country, two systems” has passed. china, he might argue, can no longer tolerate a functioning quasi-democracy within its territory, despite the agreement it accepted as a condition of hong kong’s return to chinese sovereignty in 1997.


He said the quarantine of the nature which China pulled off, which is called a "cordon sanitaire," is something out of the Middle Ages.
"That is something which harkens back to plague measures and that has been repeated over and over, including in the Ebola epidemic. The problem with the cordon sanitaire is that it's clumsy. It's a sledgehammer. It arrives too late and it breaks down that fundamental element of public health, which is information.
"That is to say that, threatened with the lockdown, people don't cooperate with authorities. Authorities therefore no longer know what's going on and people take flight, which spreads the epidemic," Snowden said.
In fact, about 5 million people left Wuhan (https://www.businessinsider.com/5-million-left-wuhan-before-coronavirus-quarantine-2020-1) in the hours before the quarantine kicked in, likely making the situation worse. While the number of new cases in China has slowed, this week they started to compound globally, with serious outbreaks in South Korea, Italy, and Iran.

Maciamo
04-03-20, 21:33
According to the BBC, the current mortality rate of 3.4% for Covid-19 is probably much higher than the reality because most cases go undetected or unreported. They say that it might not be more deadly than the flu at 0.1% of fatality rate.

Interestingly, in opposition to what I have read in this thread, they say that WHO considers Coronavirus as less contagious than influenza!

BBC News: Coronavirus v Influenza: How do the two viruses compare? (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/health-51731122/coronavirus-v-influenza-how-do-the-two-viruses-compare)

Twilight
04-03-20, 22:32
It's becoming a little clearer why Co-Vid 19 was under the radar in the U.S. and then started popping out. The same thing may have happened in Italy.

Doctors in Washington State think they may have found the first case of Coronavirus in a specimen taken from a man who traveled from Wuhan to Seattle in early January. His sample is dated January 15th. It matches the strain in the teenage boy just recently tested.

The damn virus wasn't even isolated and announced to the world until January 8th, and travel from China and people who had been in China weren't prohibited from entering the U.S. until January 31st, when, of course, the usual suspects maintained that Trump was a racist for ordering it.

The same thing may have happened in Italy. They aren't looking back far enough, or the initial person didn't have a strong enough response to the virus to even go to a hospital and give a sample.

Of course, Chinese doctors, including one who ultimately died of the virus, knew there was a new virus spreading in early December, but they were silenced and punished and the rest of the world wasn't informed.

Then, there's the fact that it takes time to figure out all the important factors involved with a new virus. The WHO and CDC were using a 14 day incubation and therefore quarantine period. So, an evacuee from China was released after 14 days, and then came down with Co-Vid 19 and had to go into the hospital. The first test produced by the CDC was also faulty.

Ultimately, however, this may all have been inevitable given that people could have been leaving China carrying the virus all of December and the first half of January before anyone in the outside world knew there was a problem. So, we're talking about at least six weeks, maybe actually eight weeks because there wasn't widespread concern really until the beginning of February.

The issue now is that the U.S. and E.U. countries, when the number of hospital beds run out, are not going to send people home and literally lock them in with their families to all either recover or die in order to stop the spread. So, it may wind up that other countries will pay more of a price than China, where the fault lies.

It doesn't help that people are damn stupid, or just refuse to face reality, or don't want to be labeled or quarantined, and so lie to public health officers.

"3 of 4 new cases lied about not having experienced symptoms when contacted by MOH during contact tracing. All 3 might have passed it onwards while sick. Unreal."

I have no words for this, let’s face it now this tribalistic politics is putting America in danger. Is there any way that the two parties can find a middle ground? :/

Jovialis
04-03-20, 22:44
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/yeshiva-university-in-new-york-city-cancels-class-after-student-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

Currently 6 people officially have it in New York; there are probably more. I fear that in the coming weeks, it will be much higher.

Salento
04-03-20, 22:58
I started to spray around Lysol, even in the cars, mail and mailbox, ... wandering if it helps.

Angela
04-03-20, 23:42
I started to spray around Lysol, even in the cars, mail and mailbox, ... wandering if it helps.The CDC is certainly recommending it. I've started carrying around a bottle of Purell when I'm not home and using it often. I've always washed my hands when I first come home from being out and about. All I've changed is actually using the Purrel before I touch the door/doorknob etc., or spraying it afterwards. As for public restrooms I always wash my hands thoroughly and close taps or touch handles with a tissue or piece of paper toweling. My mother, like Trump, was a germaphobe, and I've been doing the prior since I was a little girl.

Whatever the fatality of this disease, data from Hong Kong and Korea shows that all infectious disease occurrences are down substantially, so, maybe we should all have been doing this all along, if not for ourselves, for others.

As for masks, I think the authorities are giving out mixed messages or just plain misinformation. I've heard a number of public health officials say they don't protect you, and are just meant to protect others from your coughing. Think about that: there's a lot of cognitive dissonance there. If you're wearing it not to infect others, then obviously it prevents viruses from going into the air. There's always going to be idiots around who just cough into the air, so clearly it would help. Also, at the same time they're saying these things, they're saying don't buy them because then people who might really need them, like health care workers, won't be able to get them. So then, they do protect the health care workers. See what I mean?

Also, I unfortunately accompanied someone to Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center yesterday, to the transplant floor, and the first thing they did was instruct everyone entering to put on a surgical mask.

The fatalities out west for now are centered around a nursing home. Seven patients there are dead and others in hospital in critical condition. That highlights that the people really at risk are those who are 60+ and/or have underlying conditions.

I wish they'd get the numbers right. The WHO released figures from China saying that in Wuhan 16% or so got critically ill, and 3.8% on average died. In outlying provinces the CFR is only .7%. Has the virus mutated to become less lethal? Or, is it a question of the fact that Hubei province didn't have enough ICU chambers to handle the massive onslaught and people died unnecessarily?

Meanwhile, an epidemiologist from Johns Hopkins gave a talk to investment banks and stated that the Case Fatality Rate is 0.1 to 0.5%, which would make it only a bit more lethal than the regular flu. That's probably why the markets rebounded. Is it true or are the WHO figures more accurate?

I have no idea, but better safe than sorry. Also, that CFR figure isn't for people over 60 if you use the data from China, where, if you get COVID 19, apparently, the CFR is closer to 4%, and goes up substantially with each decade, and especially for those over 80. The moral of that story, as far as I'm concerned is that people in those age brackets shouldn't be going to large gatherings, and should be extra vigilant. People who are at all unwell should also not be going to see them.

https://i.imgur.com/j5dV6f2.png

Salento
05-03-20, 00:05
Thanks Angela :)

Duarte
05-03-20, 00:50
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak


On this website you can find information and guidance from WHO regarding the current outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) that was first reported from Wuhan, China, on 31 December 2019. Please visit this page for daily updates:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019


https://youtu.be/bPITHEiFWLc

Carlos
05-03-20, 00:55
The combination of two antivirals that have been used in HIV patients for years has managed to cure the first patient in Seville. The new coronavirus continues at this time without having a specific treatment. There are more than 80 investigations underway around the world trying to develop it.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20200302/473921586351/coronavirus-medicamento-sida-cura-paciente-sevilla-video-seo-ext.html (https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20200302/473921586351/coronavirus-medicamento-sida-cura-paciente-sevilla-video-seo-ext.html)


At the moment I know in Spain the coronavirus has not yet caused death; although the figure is still low in comparison.

Yetos
05-03-20, 01:08
Is it true that the new Coronavirus gets half activity at 18o C
and is neutralize at temperetures around 30o C

Coriolan
05-03-20, 01:28
Is it true that the new Coronavirus gets half activity at 18o C
and is neutralize at temperetures around 30o CDoubtful. There have been many cases in the Persian Gulf and the temperature in places like Kuwait and Bahrain is close to 30°C now.

Angela
05-03-20, 05:18
There's something particular about this virus and how it affects older people, and it really starts at about 50.

https://i.imgur.com/c4mNl0e.png

"King County officials are recommending, though not mandating, that people at a higher risk of developing serious symptoms from COVID-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus, stay home and avoid large groups.Patty Hayes, director for Public Health — Seattle & King County, said these recommendations are particularly aimed at people over 60 and those with underlying health conditions. Officials hope the measures will slow the spread of the virus in the county, which had seen 31 cases including nine deaths as of Wednesday afternoon.
“The distancing measures that we’re recommending are essential because we need to slow the spread of disease to the point where our healthcare system can continue to be able to handle the load,” Hayes said.
Officials are advising community groups against holding large gatherings, defined as having more than 10 people, and are encouraging companies to allow remote work. King County Executive Dow Constantine said the county canceled all non-essential large group meetings through the end of March, and employees are encouraged to work remotely if they can."

Maciamo
05-03-20, 11:40
Since Coronavirus is a respiratory illness, I wonder if its effects are more serious in places where air pollution is higher. When we look at the data, the most badly hit regions all suffer from heavy air pollution. Chinese cities obviously have abysmal air quality. But so do the Middle Eastern regions most affected by the virus: Tehran, Qom, Bahrain, UAE. In Europe it's not surprising either that the Po valley in northern Italy should be so badly affected as it is a known hot spot of air pollution within Europe. Here an air pollution map from the European Environment Agency (https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures#c0=15&c5=&c15=all&b_start=0&c8=air+pollution+map):

P10 concentrations (highest daily value) in 2004.

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/map-of-pm10-concentrations-in-wce-and-see-2003-showing-the-36th-highest-daily-values-at-urban-background-sites-superimposed-on-rural-concentrations-maps-constructed-from-measurements-and-model-calculations-eea-etc-acc-technical-paper-2005-2008-1/chapter-2-2-map-2-2-1-belgrade.eps/image_large


PM10 concentrations (daily mean) in 2017.

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/90-4-percentile-of-pm10-7/90-4-percentile-of-pm10/image_large

PM2.5 concentrations (annual mean) in 2016

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/pm2-5-annual-mean-in-1/pm2-5-annual-mean-in-2015/image_large


NO2 concentrations in 2017 (mostly caused by traffic in big cities)

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/annual-mean-no2-concentration-observed-12/89643-exceedances-of-air-quality.eps/image_large

Northern Italy is among the most polluted in every map (especially PM). Regardless of the total number of people infected, we'll see if the mortality rate in Europe is higher in places suffering with high air pollution.

Then perhaps it is not the overall air pollution that matters, but some specific factors like NO2 levels instead of PM, or the opposite.

Yetos
05-03-20, 11:48
@ Maciamo

but if this could be correct,
Then India wouldn't also suffer a lot?

Maciamo
05-03-20, 12:00
@ Maciamo

but if this could be correct,
Then India wouldn't also suffer a lot?

Once the virus spreads to India, it will probably be catastrophic. Not just because of the air pollution, but also because of the overall lack of hygiene, the overcrowding (worse than China), and I think also the difficulty in containing the population indoor (with so many people living in slums or in the street).

Africa is likely to be bad as well because of the poor medical infrastructure. But the population density is much lower (except in places like Nigeria) and southern half of Africa is far less polluted. I expect that Nigeria, and maybe some other West African countries, are going to be the worst affected by Covid-19 once the virus expands around Africa.

Maciamo
05-03-20, 12:22
Apparently there are cases in China of reinfected and a Chinese has infected her dog and if it is transmissible to dogs or other pets and other animals and vice versa this can be something even more serious if possible.

Looks like we know more about this already.

Dogs, cats can't pass on coronavirus, but can test positive (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-dogs-cats-coronavirus-positive.html)

johen
05-03-20, 23:14
"Prior to flight restrictions, on average, 3500 people every day took direct flights from Wuhan (where #coronavirus (https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hashtag_click) initially erupted) to cities in other countries ... each bubble represents passenger travel from October-November 2019 period "
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESWNSfPXQAAoSQQ?format=jpg&name=large

Maciamo
05-03-20, 23:20
For updates on Covid-19, I found that Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is actually the best place, with constant updates and a clear list of affected countries. They even have maps showing the regions with the number of cases for most countries when you hover/click on the name in the list.

Angela
06-03-20, 00:07
Italian health care establishment is seeing 10% of people with a positive test result requiring intensive care. I'd want to see a break out by age. Given Italy's extremely low birth rate and really high numbers of people over 80 and even 90 I would assume people 70+ form a big proportion of the people needing the ICU.

Atmospheric conditions might play a part, but there is also a substantial Chinese community in Italy, although not as large as that of France and the UK. Who knows how many flew in from China even before the virus was isolated on January 8th? At any rate, many Chinese Italians have ties to Fujian, which already had a cluster by the third week in January.

Of course, it could also have come from Iran. I'm sure typing has gone on. I hope it was shared with the WHO and the CBC.

Anyway, an open letter...

https://i.imgur.com/s1dbF01.png

Angela
06-03-20, 15:45
Patient Zero in Italy is a Pakistani migrant.
""The man believed to be patient zero in Italy is a Pakistani migrant who refused to self-isolate after testing positive.. Authorities asked him to quarantine himself for two weeks, but he ignored the request and continued to work at a Chinese restaurant.""

"Authorities were alerted to the situation and the military intervened to return the man to his home.“The Carabinieri have been busy reconstructing all the movements of the young man, in order to identify as many people as possible with whom he came into contact. In the meantime, the military has closed the Chinese restaurant,” reports Free West Media (https://newsfeeds.media/pewdiepie-thought-he-was-gonna-die-from-coronavirus-thingy-while-on-youtube-break-in-japan/).

The migrant now faces up to 3 months in jail for failing to self-isolate under article 650 of the Italian penal code.
He even freaking did home delivery runs.

They must have known who he was if he tested positive, and they just refused to say for fear of a riot or something. He should go to prison for 20 years. Make an object lesson of him; he deserves it. He has blood on his hands.

Salvini just gained a big chunk of the electorate for his policies.

This is what some people just don't get. If you're young and healthy you'll most likely be fine, but what are you doing to the vulnerable in terms of health, and even what are you doing to the economy and people's finances? I guess some people haven't gotten the memo, or are just too selfish to care.

WHO...I'm getting really tired of them. What idiots would accept unquestioningly data the Chinese government decides you should see. Plus, the odd ones in hospitals??? 3,000 doctors got it. Yeah, the following is true in a totalitarian country where police patrol the streets so it doesn't spread widely. Just shut up already.

"aylward: "75 to 80 percent of all clusters are in families. You get the odd ones in hospitals or restaurants or prisons, but the vast majority are in families. And only 5 to 15 percent of your close contacts develop disease."

"The city of LA and the state of California didn't quarantine the wife of a man who tested positive for coronavirus along with several friends."

https://i.imgur.com/kfAlpfP.png

bigsnake49
06-03-20, 16:57
I am totally flabbergasted at the haphazard approach the US has taken vis a vis this epidemic. No test kits available, refusal to test patients because they did not come directly from Wuhan, an idiot as a president that thinks it's OK to go to work while being infected, who thinks that he closed the borders when it is not true (we still have not closed the borders to Italy or South Korea). I mean we mixed infected and uninfected people when evacuating them off the cruise ship in Japan. One disaster after another when it comes to our response to this virus. Globalization means easier and faster spread of these kind of pandemics. We need a permanent agency or at least a bureau that has a plan in place of what to do, where and when. I think in response to the previous epidemics (SARS, MERS) there was a response team but it was dismantled for some reason. So now we are caught with our pants down.

I am thinking that grocery stores should start cracking down on people having to touch every apple to find the perfect one. It grosses me out to no end but this might be a disease spread vector. If the grocery stores don't want to go to prepackaged fruit at least put out single use plastic gloves that the employees wear.

Yetos
07-03-20, 22:32
Something strange I notice,
or couldbe due to another center of coronavirus center report

this is map by John Hopkins hospital about the coronavirus worldwide spread,
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/4fdc0d03d3a34aa485de1fb0d2650ee0

the strange is that Turkey Turkmenistan Kyrgistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kazakstan apear with 0 effect,
couls that have to do with genes?
It is early yet to identify?
did not yet pass the country?
or they just ignore and don't bother?

Ailchu
07-03-20, 23:18
Patient Zero in Italy is a Pakistani migrant.
""The man believed to be patient zero in Italy is a Pakistani migrant who refused to self-isolate after testing positive.. Authorities asked him to quarantine himself for two weeks, but he ignored the request and continued to work at a Chinese restaurant.""

"Authorities were alerted to the situation and the military intervened to return the man to his home.“The Carabinieri have been busy reconstructing all the movements of the young man, in order to identify as many people as possible with whom he came into contact. In the meantime, the military has closed the Chinese restaurant,” reports Free West Media (https://newsfeeds.media/pewdiepie-thought-he-was-gonna-die-from-coronavirus-thingy-while-on-youtube-break-in-japan/).

The migrant now faces up to 3 months in jail for failing to self-isolate under article 650 of the Italian penal code.
He even freaking did home delivery runs.

They must have known who he was if he tested positive, and they just refused to say for fear of a riot or something. He should go to prison for 20 years. Make an object lesson of him; he deserves it. He has blood on his hands.

Salvini just gained a big chunk of the electorate for his policies.

This is what some people just don't get. If you're young and healthy you'll most likely be fine, but what are you doing to the vulnerable in terms of health, and even what are you doing to the economy and people's finances? I guess some people haven't gotten the memo, or are just too selfish to care.

WHO...I'm getting really tired of them. What idiots would accept unquestioningly data the Chinese government decides you should see. Plus, the odd ones in hospitals??? 3,000 doctors got it. Yeah, the following is true in a totalitarian country where police patrol the streets so it doesn't spread widely. Just shut up already.

"aylward: "75 to 80 percent of all clusters are in families. You get the odd ones in hospitals or restaurants or prisons, but the vast majority are in families. And only 5 to 15 percent of your close contacts develop disease."

"The city of LA and the state of California didn't quarantine the wife of a man who tested positive for coronavirus along with several friends."

https://i.imgur.com/kfAlpfP.png


is there an official source for patient 0 in italy? i searched for it and couldn't find it. the news originally come from "free west media" from what i found, not from italy. and of course it is spread by people like paul joseph watson.

johen
08-03-20, 06:55
The number of coronavirus patients outside mainland China could climb tenfold every 19 days, if countries don't enforce stringent restrictions to deal with the mounting crisis, researchers have found.

A study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029819v2), led by geneticist Jin Li, of Shanghai's Fudan University, found that an estimated "34 unobserved founder patients" triggered the spread of COVID-19 outside mainland China.
They may have only presented with "mild symptoms," the study says, and so didn't go to a hospital to get tested for coronavirus.
Based on data gathered through the end of February, the researchers built a "mathematical model to capture the global trend of epidemics outside China."
"The situation is dangerous," the study said, underscoring the need for "strong intervention."
"Powerful actions on public health should be taken to combat this epidemic all over the world," the researchers wrote, highlighting China and Singapore as two countries where drastic containment measures have helped to control the spread of the coronavirus.
These findings were published on medrxiv.org (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029819v2), which is a preprint server for health sciences, according to its website. This means the study has not yet been peer-reviewed.
According to the South China Morning Post (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074080/coronavirus-global-infections-could-increase-tenfold-every-19), a woman who traveled from Wuhan, in Hubei province, to Thailand was the first coronavirus carrier outside China. She tested positive for COVID-19 on January 13.
As of Saturday, the illness has now hit every continent, except Antarctica, and affected over 101,000 people.
A webinar presentation hosted by the American Hospital Association projected that there could be as many as 96 million cases in the United States alone (https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3) along with 4.8 million hospitalizations and 480,000 deaths associated with the novel coronavirus.

Moreover there are no symptom cases.

bicicleur
08-03-20, 10:38
is there an official source for patient 0 in italy? i searched for it and couldn't find it. the news originally come from "free west media" from what i found, not from italy. and of course it is spread by people like paul joseph watson.

patient 0 was the patient tested positive in Codogno and not immediately put in quarantaine
the hospital in Codogno is responsable for the uncontrolled spread in Italy and the whole of Europe

Salento
08-03-20, 15:31
... the Governor of Puglia, the heel of Italy’s boot ... don't come back ...

“Get off at the first train station, do not catch planes, turn your cars around, get off your buses. Do not bring the Lombard, Veneto and Emilia epidemic to Puglia.”

... To underscore his determination, he signed a decree saying anyone arriving from the vast northern red zone would have to put themselves in quarantine for two weeks ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-south/dont-come-back-italys-south-tells-emigres-in-virus-hit-north-idUSKBN20V0IJ?rpc=401&

Angela
08-03-20, 16:58
... the Governor of Puglia, the heel of Italy’s boot ... don't come back ...

“Get off at the first train station, do not catch planes, turn your cars around, get off your buses. Do not bring the Lombard, Veneto and Emilia epidemic to Puglia.”

... To underscore his determination, he signed a decree saying anyone arriving from the vast northern red zone would have to put themselves in quarantine for two weeks ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-south/dont-come-back-italys-south-tells-emigres-in-virus-hit-north-idUSKBN20V0IJ?rpc=401&

Good for him, but it's probably too late: an American serviceman in Napoli has tested positive.

As to the Pakistani man being patient zero, here are the latest facts as determined by the AP:
News articles including Free West Media falsely cited Adnkronos, an Italian media agency, in making the claim. On Feb. 29, Adnkronos released a story that a Pakistani man, who delivers Chinese food, did not quarantine himself in Italy after having a positive coronavirus test.

The article makes no reference to the man being patient zero.
So, he wasn't patient zero, but he still did what the story claimed he did, and he still should go to jail. Once you've been quarantined, you freaking stay in quarantine.

@Bicicleur,
I knew it would be you.

Here is the sequence of events, not that it will matter to you.

First of all, learn the difference between first reported case and "patient zero".

Second of all, read the following. At the time the decisions were made any doctors anywhere in the world would have done the exact same thing, because those were the protocols. It happened in the U.S. over and over again, but you don't see this kind of vitriol here.

I'm sure the facts won't matter to you, just as they don't matter to you whenever migrants from the Near East or North Africa are involved. It's never about the facts of any specific case; it's always a knee jerk reaction based on your own prejudices.

I should have done it long ago. I'm done with you.

"The Lombardy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lombardy) outbreak came to light when a 38-year-old Italian tested positive in Codogno (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Codogno), a comune (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comune) in the province of Lodi (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Province_of_Lodi). According to his wife, he had met an Italian friend who had returned from China on 21 January, who subsequently tested negative.[18] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-Repubblica_Codogno_doctors-18) On 14 February, he felt unwell and went to a doctor in Castiglione d'Adda (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castiglione_d%27Adda). He was prescribed treatments for influenza.[18] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-Repubblica_Codogno_doctors-18)On 16 February, as the 38-year-old man's condition worsened, he went to Codogno Hospital, reporting respiratory problems.[18] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-Repubblica_Codogno_doctors-18) Initially, there was no suspicion of COVID-19, so no additional precautionary measures were taken, and the virus was able to infect other patients and health workers.[19] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-urlMailand:NZZ-19) Later, the patient, his pregnant wife, and a friend tested positive.[18] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-Repubblica_Codogno_doctors-18) Three more cases were confirmed on the same day, after the patients reported symptoms of pneumonia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumonia).[20] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-20) Thereafter, extensive screenings and checks were performed on everyone that had possibly been in contact or near the infected subjects.[21] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-Messaggero_22Feb-21)"

Stuvanè
08-03-20, 17:02
patient 0 was the patient tested positive in Codogno and not immediately put in quarantaine
the hospital in Codogno is responsable for the uncontrolled spread in Italy and the whole of Europe

I totally disagree.

Wanting to argue at all costs it would seem that the first European patient ever was in Germany ...


https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?fbclid=IwAR2CZZYB2GYWgorVGzC63aAY1bz3 xrQUCxhCCIfs3dGr2XbbWqLuyT9EGSI



But this is not the point, Germany will justify this fact as it sees fit. Let's go back to Codogno.
The Codogno hospital followed the protocols issued by Rome (which are the official ones), the second of which modified what was prescribed in the previous one, so that the first infected patient was no longer included in the cases of subjects to be kept under observation.

https://www.ilgiornale.it/news/politica/coronavirus-altro-che-ospedale-focolaio-circolari-1831961.html?fbclid=IwAR1uqXclZ3znm138ov0vV3s_eBS_ v51Qcm6x4mB-hxqzioEvI8XbAQjaNIU

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_febbraio_26/coronavirus-paziente-1-rifiuto-ricovero-codogno-ricostruzione-d187209e-58bc-11ea-8e3a-a0c8564bd6c7.shtml



Indeed, it was precisely an excess of scruple of Dr. Malara - who was operating in Codogno in those days - to find out that the patient was suffering from Covid-19. There is only to kiss the elbows that this accident was discovered in Lombardy.
Elsewhere - for economic interests or for reasons of reputation - they would have pretended nothing

https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/06/news/l_anestesista_di_codogno_per_mattia_era_tutto_inut ile_cosi_ho_avuto_la_folle_idea_di_pensare_al_coro navirus_-250380291/

Yetos
08-03-20, 19:53
It seems that some countries do not cooperate with WHO,

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

bigsnake49
08-03-20, 19:56
... the Governor of Puglia, the heel of Italy’s boot ... don't come back ...

“Get off at the first train station, do not catch planes, turn your cars around, get off your buses. Do not bring the Lombard, Veneto and Emilia epidemic to Puglia.”

... To underscore his determination, he signed a decree saying anyone arriving from the vast northern red zone would have to put themselves in quarantine for two weeks ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-south/dont-come-back-italys-south-tells-emigres-in-virus-hit-north-idUSKBN20V0IJ?rpc=401&

Haha, I like him. Don't bring the Northern plague to Puglia!

bicicleur
08-03-20, 20:27
I totally disagree.
Wanting to argue at all costs it would seem that the first European patient ever was in Germany ...
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?fbclid=IwAR2CZZYB2GYWgorVGzC63aAY1bz3 xrQUCxhCCIfs3dGr2XbbWqLuyT9EGSI
But this is not the point, Germany will justify this fact as it sees fit. Let's go back to Codogno.
The Codogno hospital followed the protocols issued by Rome (which are the official ones), the second of which modified what was prescribed in the previous one, so that the first infected patient was no longer included in the cases of subjects to be kept under observation.
https://www.ilgiornale.it/news/politica/coronavirus-altro-che-ospedale-focolaio-circolari-1831961.html?fbclid=IwAR1uqXclZ3znm138ov0vV3s_eBS_ v51Qcm6x4mB-hxqzioEvI8XbAQjaNIU
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_febbraio_26/coronavirus-paziente-1-rifiuto-ricovero-codogno-ricostruzione-d187209e-58bc-11ea-8e3a-a0c8564bd6c7.shtml
Indeed, it was precisely an excess of scruple of Dr. Malara - who was operating in Codogno in those days - to find out that the patient was suffering from Covid-19. There is only to kiss the elbows that this accident was discovered in Lombardy.
Elsewhere - for economic interests or for reasons of reputation - they would have pretended nothing
https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/06/news/l_anestesista_di_codogno_per_mattia_era_tutto_inut ile_cosi_ho_avuto_la_folle_idea_di_pensare_al_coro navirus_-250380291/
have it your way

fact is that in Europe the virus spread most rapidly in Italy and that most infections in Belgium come from people coming back from holiday in Italy

I don't blame anyone, but al of a sudden you and Angela become very defensive
and I don't see why you start pointing to Germany

well, maybe I start noticing a pattern here : whatever goes wrong in Italy, blame the Germans

bicicleur
08-03-20, 20:28
Haha, I like him. Don't bring the Northern plague to Puglia!

with the emphasis on Northern?

Carlos
08-03-20, 20:37
The same thing has happened in Spain with the traffic of people with northern Italy and the spread of the virus and nobody has to be offended by that.


The Spanish flu did not start in Spain either and nevertheless they called it that and neither offend us nor feel alluded to.

Yetos
08-03-20, 20:48
The first hit in Greece came from a trip to Milan.
the third from a trip or student from England,
But majority got Coronavirus from Siinai mountain toour.

bicicleur
08-03-20, 20:50
Good for him, but it's probably too late: an American serviceman in Napoli has tested positive.

As to the Pakistani man being patient zero, here are the latest facts as determined by the AP:
News articles including Free West Media falsely cited Adnkronos, an Italian media agency, in making the claim. On Feb. 29, Adnkronos released a story that a Pakistani man, who delivers Chinese food, did not quarantine himself in Italy after having a positive coronavirus test.

The article makes no reference to the man being patient zero.
So, he wasn't patient zero, but he still did what the story claimed he did, and he still should go to jail. Once you've been quarantined, you freaking stay in quarantine.

@Bicicleur,
I knew it would be you.

Here is the sequence of events, not that it will matter to you.

First of all, learn the difference between first reported case and "patient zero".

Second of all, read the following. At the time the decisions were made any doctors anywhere in the world would have done the exact same thing, because those were the protocols. It happened in the U.S. over and over again, but you don't see this kind of vitriol here.

I'm sure the facts won't matter to you, just as they don't matter to you whenever migrants from the Near East or North Africa are involved. It's never about the facts of any specific case; it's always a knee jerk reaction based on your own prejudices.

I should have done it long ago. I'm done with you.

"The Lombardy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lombardy) outbreak came to light when a 38-year-old Italian tested positive in Codogno (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Codogno), a comune (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comune) in the province of Lodi (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Province_of_Lodi). According to his wife, he had met an Italian friend who had returned from China on 21 January, who subsequently tested negative.[18] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-Repubblica_Codogno_doctors-18) On 14 February, he felt unwell and went to a doctor in Castiglione d'Adda (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castiglione_d%27Adda). He was prescribed treatments for influenza.[18] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-Repubblica_Codogno_doctors-18)On 16 February, as the 38-year-old man's condition worsened, he went to Codogno Hospital, reporting respiratory problems.[18] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-Repubblica_Codogno_doctors-18) Initially, there was no suspicion of COVID-19, so no additional precautionary measures were taken, and the virus was able to infect other patients and health workers.[19] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-urlMailand:NZZ-19) Later, the patient, his pregnant wife, and a friend tested positive.[18] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-Repubblica_Codogno_doctors-18) Three more cases were confirmed on the same day, after the patients reported symptoms of pneumonia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumonia).[20] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-20) Thereafter, extensive screenings and checks were performed on everyone that had possibly been in contact or near the infected subjects.[21] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy#cite_note-Messaggero_22Feb-21)"




you're right

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-covid-19-patient-zero/

While some countries have seen a gradual rise in confirmed cases, others, like Italy, have endured unnerving spikes weeks after their initial confirmation. Italy’s first identified case was a 38-year-old man from a town southeast of Milan who hadn’t traveled to China. Scientists originally believed Italy’s patient zero was a colleague of his who had just returned from a business trip to China, but this person tested negative – and no other obvious candidates were identified.

but tell me, why did prime minister Conte criticisize the Codogno hospital
and how did become at the forefront of Corona infections outside of China?

your story about patient zero in Italy doesn't hold up either :

https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8622170027

No evidence that food delivery man was coronavirus patient zero in Italy

I don't know the sequence, but neither do you

it may be just bad luck, I don't know

and if you think Puglia should close it's borders, why shouldn't Europe close it's borders to Italy?

bigsnake49
08-03-20, 23:03
with the emphasis on Northern?

I think the problem is that the Southern Italians that migrated to Northern Italy would be young and the ones left behind would be the old folks which in this case would be the most vulnerable.

Maciamo
08-03-20, 23:25
Emotions are running high. Let's all take a deep breath and calm down. It's useless to point the finger at entire countries or regions.


... the Governor of Puglia, the heel of Italy’s boot ... don't come back ...

“Get off at the first train station, do not catch planes, turn your cars around, get off your buses. Do not bring the Lombard, Veneto and Emilia epidemic to Puglia.”

... To underscore his determination, he signed a decree saying anyone arriving from the vast northern red zone would have to put themselves in quarantine for two weeks ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-south/dont-come-back-italys-south-tells-emigres-in-virus-hit-north-idUSKBN20V0IJ?rpc=401&

There have already been confirmed cases in Puglia: Wikipedia - 2020 coronavirus outbreak in Italy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/26/COVID-19_Outbreak_Cases_in_Italy_%28Density%29.svg/220px-COVID-19_Outbreak_Cases_in_Italy_%28Density%29.svg.png

Yetos
08-03-20, 23:49
and what about the countries that hide their data or do not cooperate?

Salento
08-03-20, 23:55
Emotions are running high. Let's all take a deep breath and calm down. It's useless to point the finger at entire countries or regions.



There have already been confirmed cases in Puglia: Wikipedia - 2020 coronavirus outbreak in Italy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/26/COVID-19_Outbreak_Cases_in_Italy_%28Density%29.svg/220px-COVID-19_Outbreak_Cases_in_Italy_%28Density%29.svg.png


The message I shared from the Governor of Puglia was misinterpreted by some, (many Apulians are blunt) :)

He wasn’t blaming anybody.

What he was really saying was that if you had been in the red zone area, you might be a carrier and if you care about your family and neighbors, don’t come, or go back if on your way, so you don’t make them sick and increase the spread.

Stuvanè
09-03-20, 00:19
Dear all,


surely I'm a sensitive type, but trusting is good, not trusting is better, especially now that I'm confined to the red zone.

If anyone writes that the Codogno hospital is responsible for the spread of Covid-19, the idea that Italy was the bearer of the disease, if not the only one responsible for this mess, is simply implied. And that's what the media in the world have let through, including the ineffable CNN, which in its map of a few days ago felt compelled to make China disappear.


I don't think it was a random choice.

https://www.ilmessaggero.it/photos/MED/27/34/5092734_1320_11.jpg


I brought up Germany because the study in question comes from a German university that talks about an infected in their country, and is earlier than that of Codogno. Although the most important focus of contagion has certainly developed here (many people pass through the Po Valley for work and / or tourism and certainly this has not helped to contain the phenomenon), it is not said that the first prize it's up to us.
The search for "patient 0" leaves the time it finds with such a contagious disease, it's a fig leaf, especially when we talk about areas connected commercially and economically to each other such as China / Far East and Europe.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b3/COVID-19-outbreak-timeline.gif


Do I really have to believe that only the peasants and workers of Codogno in Lombardy or those of Vo 'in Veneto had contacts with China and suddenly became the main attraction of all the other states and tourists of the world infected? In continental Europe do they all live and work under a glass bell and meet their Chinese colleagues only via Skype? Or rather, in some parts of the world do authorities count contagions in another way - and sometimes they stop looking for cases of the sick - so as not to ruin economic records or disturb the financial markets?
Thinking badly is a sin but you always guess it: let's say that at this moment it is much easier to step on Italy's feet and reprimand it than to call into question the main mess that originated in China, where the authorities in the early times of the epidemic were not exemplary states for clarity.

After which I am the first to argue that our current Italian rulers in Rome are a historical and civil disgrace for incompetence and looseness, always prone to requests coming from party secretaries and bureaucrats or from some foreign interlocutors who are a little too interested in our business, but much less ready for the needs of their governed. As when, precisely the regions of northern Italy in previous weeks had requested to monitor with greater rigor the entrances of all those - Chinese, Italian or any other nationality - who came from areas affected by the virus and possibly impose quarantine, but there was denied because it would have been considered a racist and fascist measure (!). In order not to make a temporary "rudeness" to a few individuals, a colossal quarantine is now imposed on almost all of northern Italy, after delays and hesitations of all kinds and the whole of Italy itself is now isolated from other countries. In my home all this is called stupidity and perhaps even betrayal.


Being judged infector after trying to activate all possible health procedures at the local level, indeed even finding obstacles from the central government is not a great satisfaction. But we will make it right and there will be a lesson. After all this hangover of mock brotherhood and universal solidarity, it is good to take up a bit of concreteness and mutual mistrust every now and then.


As for the governor of Puglia, I believe he has done very well to admonish and take legal measures against all those fools who, upon the news of the closure of the northern regions, poured into the South at their places of origin, risking to propagate throughout the Peninsula the virus. I would advise him, however, to measure the words better, since he wanted to label Covid-19 as "northern" (Lombardo, Veneto, Emiliano ...). I hope it was just a Freudian lapsus and not a deliberate flurry of misplaced political controversy. He must remember that if the public health of the north collapses (and we are very close) the Apulians and many others who often have to go back here for specific medical treatments will also stop benefiting from it.

Jovialis
09-03-20, 00:44
Dear all,


surely I'm a sensitive type, but trusting is good, not trusting is better, especially now that I'm confined to the red zone.

If anyone writes that the Codogno hospital is responsible for the spread of Covid-19, the idea that Italy was the bearer of the disease, if not the only one responsible for this mess, is simply implied. And that's what the media in the world have let through, including the ineffable CNN, which in its map of a few days ago felt compelled to make China disappear.


I don't think it was a random choice.

https://www.ilmessaggero.it/photos/MED/27/34/5092734_1320_11.jpg


I brought up Germany because the study in question comes from a German university that talks about an infected in their country, and is earlier than that of Codogno. Although the most important focus of contagion has certainly developed here (many people pass through the Po Valley for work and / or tourism and certainly this has not helped to contain the phenomenon), it is not said that the first prize it's up to us.
The search for "patient 0" leaves the time it finds with such a contagious disease, it's a fig leaf, especially when we talk about areas connected commercially and economically to each other such as China / Far East and Europe.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b3/COVID-19-outbreak-timeline.gif


Do I really have to believe that only the peasants and workers of Codogno in Lombardy or those of Vo 'in Veneto had contacts with China and suddenly became the main attraction of all the other states and tourists of the world infected? In continental Europe do they all live and work under a glass bell and meet their Chinese colleagues only via Skype? Or rather, in some parts of the world do authorities count contagions in another way - and sometimes they stop looking for cases of the sick - so as not to ruin economic records or disturb the financial markets?
Thinking badly is a sin but you always guess it: let's say that at this moment it is much easier to step on Italy's feet and reprimand it than to call into question the main mess that originated in China, where the authorities in the early times of the epidemic were not exemplary states for clarity.

After which I am the first to argue that our current Italian rulers in Rome are a historical and civil disgrace for incompetence and looseness, always prone to requests coming from party secretaries and bureaucrats or from some foreign interlocutors who are a little too interested in our business, but much less ready for the needs of their governed. As when, precisely the regions of northern Italy in previous weeks had requested to monitor with greater rigor the entrances of all those - Chinese, Italian or any other nationality - who came from areas affected by the virus and possibly impose quarantine, but there was denied because it would have been considered a racist and fascist measure (!). In order not to make a temporary "rudeness" to a few individuals, a colossal quarantine is now imposed on almost all of northern Italy, after delays and hesitations of all kinds and the whole of Italy itself is now isolated from other countries. In my home all this is called stupidity and perhaps even betrayal.


Being judged infector after trying to activate all possible health procedures at the local level, indeed even finding obstacles from the central government is not a great satisfaction. But we will make it right and there will be a lesson. After all this hangover of mock brotherhood and universal solidarity, it is good to take up a bit of concreteness and mutual mistrust every now and then.


As for the governor of Puglia, I believe he has done very well to admonish and take legal measures against all those fools who, upon the news of the closure of the northern regions, poured into the South at their places of origin, risking to propagate throughout the Peninsula the virus. I would advise him, however, to measure the words better, since he wanted to label Covid-19 as "northern" (Lombardo, Veneto, Emiliano ...). I hope it was just a Freudian lapsus and not a deliberate flurry of misplaced political controversy. He must remember that if the public health of the north collapses (and we are very close) the Apulians and many others who often have to go back here for specific medical treatments will also stop benefiting from it.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese government is influencing media outlets like CNN:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-freedomhouse-report-china/freedom-house-calls-for-oversight-on-chinas-efforts-to-influence-media-abroad-idUSKBN1ZE0DT

Salento
09-03-20, 00:52
In bocca al lupo Stuvanè, hopefully, in a couple of weeks or so everything will go back to normal again.

Yetos
09-03-20, 01:27
I think you are driven the wrong way,
we are speaking about a world pandemia,
and we arrgue if the first was in Germany
or if Italy's patient 0 was mistake
etc etc,

In my country half of the effected came from a Sinai mountain tour.
lets face and focus other more serious.

for example,
look at the bellow

"Prior to flight restrictions, on average, 3500 people every day took direct flights from Wuhan (where #coronavirus (https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hashtag_click) initially erupted) to cities in other countries ... each bubble represents passenger travel from October-November 2019 period "
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESWNSfPXQAAoSQQ?format=jpg&name=large




Now take a look at this.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

How come countries that accepted thousands of people from Wuhan China
still have 0 patient, and others that accepted none have hundrends?

that means that either EU pandemia control system is wrong, and some other countries have better.
or that some countries hide the patients and death,and do not cooperate with WHO.
I think is more dangerous to play hide and seak with a pandemia report at some countries.
than to find which one spread the virus,

torzio
09-03-20, 04:04
I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese government is influencing media outlets like CNN:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-freedomhouse-report-china/freedom-house-calls-for-oversight-on-chinas-efforts-to-influence-media-abroad-idUSKBN1ZE0DT

thats what I heard as well ...............they influence CNN to also target Trump in stopping this trade impasse with China

Salento
09-03-20, 04:58
... out of curiosity :)

insitome ... immunity

Covid-19 vs Neanderthal / Modern Human ???

my immune system version/combination:

Interpreting Immune Signals - Modern Human

Pathogen Recognition - Neanderthal

Viral Immune Response - Neanderthal

https://i.imgur.com/1qgrJPh.jpg

bicicleur
09-03-20, 09:11
maybe there are countries that aren't even aware that they have cases of corona infection

from a pure selfish point of view : why should you have yourself tested?
there is no medicin to help you, and they'll put you in quarantaine

bicicleur
09-03-20, 09:20
In bocca al lupo Stuvanè, hopefully, in a couple of weeks or so everything will go back to normal again.

I hope so.
It is difficult to judge what actions to take and what not.
One has to be carefull, but sometimes the consequences of the precautions taken may be more harmfull than the disease itself.
There is simply not enough information.

Common sense is to test those who have symptoms and put them in quarantaine.
In China, they have put their whole economy to a standstill for a couple of weeks.
It seems to have stopped further spreading.

Yetos
09-03-20, 14:10
For the story

WEBASTO
could this be the company that spread coronavirus to Europe?


https://www.newsauto.gr/news/na-apo-pou-xekinise-o-koronoios-stin-evropi/

at 23JAN2020 at Munchen Deutchland,
then an employ of Webasto who met the 'affected' lady
breaks the quarantine and travels to Italy outside Milan Preferacture,

Jovialis
09-03-20, 19:35
200% surge in Coronavirus infections in the NY Tri-state area. The head of the Port Authority in NY/NJ tests positive for the virus...

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/brooklyn-sees-1st-coronavirus-cases-as-tri-state-total-surges-136-in-3-days-some-schools-close/2317966/ (https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/brooklyn-sees-1st-coronavirus-cases-as-tri-state-total-surges-136-in-3-days-some-schools-close/2317966/)

Northener
09-03-20, 19:40
In the case of a pandemic disease like corona it’s hope for the best be prepared for the worst. Especially China but also Italy were ill prepared.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/this-one-chart-shows-why-minimizing-coronavirus-impact-is-a-race-against-time/
Now we get some overreaction to corona, quarantaine ad retraite of regions, that can cause a work wide economic depression.....stock markets and consumer trust are reacting like nervous horses.

Dagne
09-03-20, 20:10
I don't think it matters who spread the virus to whom in Europe. The question is how to handle the situation in the best way.
It is still unclear, for instance, if people can get this virus by breathing the contaminated air in closed spaces like airplanes, trains, office space where mechanical ventilation and air conditioning is used. This is rather a key issue, because if the virus can spread easily through air, then all recommendations about one-meter distancing are rather misleading.

johen
09-03-20, 21:46
" I am an epidemiologist with eight years of field experience, including time on the front lines of the isolation and quarantine efforts during the 2009 swine flu pandemic. One month ago, I was under the impression that the death reports due to COVID-19 circulation in China were giving us an unfair picture of its mortality rate. I wrote a piece saying (https://theconversation.com/is-the-coronavirus-outbreak-as-bad-as-sars-or-the-2009-influenza-pandemic-a-biologist-explains-the-clues-130766?mod=article_inline) that the death rate of an emerging disease always looks bad in the early stages of an outbreak, but is likely to drop once better data become available. After waiting for eight weeks, I am now worried that these new data — data indicating that the virus has a low fatality rate — may not arrive.

For now, Americans need to prepare themselves that the next 12 months are going to look very different. Vacations may have to be canceled. Social interactions will look different. And risk management is something we’re going to have to think about every morning when we wake up. The coronavirus epidemic is not going to extinguish itself. It is not in another country. It is not just the cold and flu. And it is not going away."
Maciej F. Boni is as associate professor of biology at Pennsylvania State University

Northener
09-03-20, 21:57
" I am an epidemiologist with eight years of field experience, including time on the front lines of the isolation and quarantine efforts during the 2009 swine flu pandemic. One month ago, I was under the impression that the death reports due to COVID-19 circulation in China were giving us an unfair picture of its mortality rate. I wrote a piece saying (https://theconversation.com/is-the-coronavirus-outbreak-as-bad-as-sars-or-the-2009-influenza-pandemic-a-biologist-explains-the-clues-130766?mod=article_inline) that the death rate of an emerging disease always looks bad in the early stages of an outbreak, but is likely to drop once better data become available. After waiting for eight weeks, I am now worried that these new data — data indicating that the virus has a low fatality rate — may not arrive.

For now, Americans need to prepare themselves that the next 12 months are going to look very different. Vacations may have to be canceled. Social interactions will look different. And risk management is something we’re going to have to think about every morning when we wake up. The coronavirus epidemic is not going to extinguish itself. It is not in another country. It is not just the cold and flu. And it is not going away."
Maciej F. Boni is as associate professor of biology at Pennsylvania State University

No reason for panic IMO, this analysis is very sober and accurat:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-ten-reasons-not-to-panic/

Tutkun Arnaut
10-03-20, 00:01
The message I shared from the Governor of Puglia was misinterpreted by some, (many Apulians are blunt) :)

He wasn’t blaming anybody.

What he was really saying was that if you had been in the red zone area, you might be a carrier and if you care about your family and neighbors, don’t come, or go back if on your way, so you don’t make them sick and increase the spread.

Banana Republic! Italians spread the virus in US and Europe.

etrusco
10-03-20, 00:24
Shutdown all over the country starting from tomorrow morning.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51810673

blevins13
10-03-20, 00:26
Shutdown all over the country starting from tomorrow morning.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51810673

Albania 6 cases....is going pandemic.


Sent from my iPhone using Eupedia Forum (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=89698)

Salento
10-03-20, 01:01
EDITED the ..... ​


...... Republic! ..... spread the virus in US and Europe.

you’re drinking way too much kool aid,

... Monday morning Quarterbacking.

Jovialis
10-03-20, 01:14
Banana Republic! Italians spread the virus in US and Europe.

You have an infraction for hate speech, moron.

Dagne
10-03-20, 13:51
Health care system is very good in Northern Italy, so hopefully they will manage to provide ICU help to most serious cases.
I don't think it is fair to blame Italy, the rapid spread of coronavirus might have happened in any other European country.
Italy's numbers are high because they report all cases/fatalities transparently, not like in China, where we might never find out about the real scale of the tragedy in the hardest hit Wuhan city.

Northener
10-03-20, 13:59
I hope so.
It is difficult to judge what actions to take and what not.
One has to be carefull, but sometimes the consequences of the precautions taken may be more harmfull than the disease itself.
There is simply not enough information.

Common sense is to test those who have symptoms and put them in quarantaine.
In China, they have put their whole economy to a standstill for a couple of weeks.
It seems to have stopped further spreading.

Yep the easiest way to an economic shut down.......


The "Whuan way" is:
- first 'allow' trade and eating unhygienic meat;
- don't react adequate when corona pops up;
- total lack of hospital capacity;
- rely on the ultimum remedium: shut down of society, and set up drones against the people.


And the Italians now facing the same thing (except step 1). Total shut down, especially in the economic heart.


The effect: world wide economic crisis.


Things are going fast here (Netherlands, like in Belgium?) but I hope that we can handle this, 'on the paper' the government is prepared.....but in practice?

Northener
10-03-20, 14:08
Health care system is very good in Northern Italy, so hopefully they will manage to provide ICU help to most serious cases.
I don't think it is fair to blame Italy, the rapid spread of coronavirus might have happened in any other European country.
Italy's numbers are high because they report all cases/fatalities transparently, not like in China, where we might never find out about the real scale of the tragedy in the hardest hit Wuhan city.

Not the health care as such but if a country is prepared to such a pandemic situation, that's indeed the question. Italy (like China before) was simply ill prepared... Let's hope most countries have learned from it, but I guess the lessons had to be learned before....time is short....now it's overcomes many countries, unfortunately.

See:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/this-one-chart-shows-why-minimizing-coronavirus-impact-is-a-race-against-time/

and
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/these-are-the-countries-best-prepared-for-health-emergencies/

bigsnake49
10-03-20, 15:16
Right on cue, Italian prisoners riot all across Italy:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/italy-prison-flames-coronavirus-lockdown-114217079.html

Some of them escape but are recaptured.

bicicleur
10-03-20, 15:23
Shutdown all over the country starting from tomorrow morning.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51810673

strange enough yesterday they let all the tourist go back home from the area that was already in quarantaine
without even checking their temperature

some left by car across the Brenner pass, others by plane
2 airplanes from Milan landed in Brussels, even there upon arrival the temperature of the passengers was not checked

Jovialis
10-03-20, 15:32
Right on cue, Italian prisoners riot all across Italy:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/italy-prison-flames-coronavirus-lockdown-114217079.html

Some of them escape but are recaptured.

Right on cue, the comment section is filled with retarded t-rolls:

I wonder if they are fake-Jewish crypto-racists that undermine the readers, or actually racist Israeli ethno-nationalists. Looks like A(pricity)nthrogenica.

Just look at this guy and some of his older posts:

https://i.imgur.com/VXARBnf.png

bigsnake49
10-03-20, 15:46
Right on cue, the comment section is filled with retarded t-rolls:

I wonder if they are fake-Jewish crypto-racists that undermine the readers, or actually racist Israeli ethno-nationalists. Looks like A(pricity)nthrogenica.

Just look at this guy and some of his older posts:

https://i.imgur.com/VXARBnf.png

Oh, all of those are probably Russian and Chinese Bots. I never read the comments on Yahoo because they have the weakest anti bot measures. Too easy to create yahoo accounts via automated scripts.

Jovialis
10-03-20, 15:52
Oh, all of those are probably Russian and Chinese Bots. I never read the comments on Yahoo because they have the weakest anti bot measures. Too easy to create yahoo accounts via automated scripts.

Bots are possible too.

Some of them are probably domestic as well, created by fringe-groups with a variety of agendas.

Some bots are "well made", and pretty hard to discern if they are real people or not. Only when they "out" themselves, by posting links to external sites, does it become more obvious.

Northener
10-03-20, 16:10
Bots are possible too.

Some of them are probably domestic as well, created by fringe-groups with a variety of agendas.

Some bots are "well made", and pretty hard to discern if they are real people or not. Only when they "out" themselves, by posting links to external sites, does it become more obvious.

'Mad dogs' are everywhere Jovialis but as bicicleur points out some governments seem not to be able to handle this situation. The Chinese were ill prepared but they are able to take draconian measures because they have a despotic regime. I remember the images of an old woman, she was corrected by a drone ('don't forget to wash your hands.....) my goodness:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/video/china-deploys-drones-combat-coronavirus-outbreak-68745565

In Italy they also have to deal with an ill prepared care system. So it got out of their hands. The hospital capacity isn't enough etc etc.

Meanwhile this can have bad repercussions for the world economy. No good trade etc when there are complete shutdowns, quarantaines and retraites.

It's not a matter of pointing with fingers but when governments fail we see a (worldwide) social and economic disaster. When better prepared there was no need for this.....what lessons can we draw?

bigsnake49
10-03-20, 16:57
This whole crisis pointed out couple of things (beside the fact that Trump is incompetent). We cannot be dependent on China for our drugs or our healthcare supplies. The factories shut down because of the coronavirus and they were using the masks for their own needs so they were very few for us. Imagine if they were doing it because of malice or to use it for trade sanctions. As a country we need to identify critical areas that we cannot be dependent on others to supply. Strategically, we cannot be dependent on others for critical parts and supplies.

Salento
10-03-20, 19:20
regardless of actions and opinions, I wouldn’t omit a step by failing to say from where the virus got to Europe.

some advice from an affected area:

... Stay Home, go out only to get food and pharmaceutical supplies, as in compliance with the anti-contagion rules, that is, with mask to protect mouth and nose, and keeping 1 meter safety distance,

Elderly and Children must NOT go out at all Absolutely.

Children must NOT stay with Grandparents.

If anyone has symptoms of the flu, fever or cough - they must remain at home (Absolutely) and must NOT go to the Hospital, but must contact the Doctor by phone.

If someone comes from a positive-zone or suspected of being at risk, must self-quarantine for 14 days and the same applies to the family members.

Stuvanè
10-03-20, 20:48
Thanks Salento,
Thanks Jovialis,
Thanks Dagne,


Thank you all for the encouragement.

A small update: many traders and restaurateurs here in the north, especially between Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna (but there are also elsewhere) are deciding to spontaneously close the business even during the daytime, to limit even more the frequentation of people and - hopefully - make quarantine even more effective. If we wait for the provisions of the central rulers in Rome and their hesitations, there is plenty of time to get another three new epidemics...

Duarte
10-03-20, 23:21
Thanks Salento,
Thanks Jovialis,
Thanks Dagne,


Thank you all for the encouragement.

A small update: many traders and restaurateurs here in the north, especially between Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna (but there are also elsewhere) are deciding to spontaneously close the business even during the daytime, to limit even more the frequentation of people and - hopefully - make quarantine even more effective. If we wait for the provisions of the central rulers in Rome and their hesitations, there is plenty of time to get another three new epidemics...

Tomorrow will be a nice day, as crazily happy as one can imagine.
I dedicate this song with it's lyric of hope and faith in a better future to you and to all that are confined in the Red Zone.

Lyrics:

Tomorrow

Tomorrow
will be a nice day
as crazily happy
as one can imagine.


Tomorrow
with double force
up until it doesn't stop
Will reign


Tomorrow
there won't be any mystery
other than illusion
the king star is gonna shine


Tomorrow
the light
over everyone's will
will prevail
will prevail


Tomorrow
there will be hope
as insignificant as it would seem
it exists to flourish


Tomorrow
despite of today
will be the appearing path
that was made to follow


Tomorrow
even though some will not want it
will be for those who wait
to see the day shine


Tomorrow
defeated hate
softened fear
will be complete
will be complete


Video (Portuguese)


https://youtu.be/NGUJtoDzXfw

Stuvanè
10-03-20, 23:33
Tomorrow will be a nice day, as crazily happy as one can imagine.
I dedicate this song with it's lyric of hope and faith in a better future to you and to all that are confined in the Red Zone.

Lyrics:

Tomorrow

Tomorrow
will be a nice day
as crazily happy
as one can imagine.


Tomorrow
with double force
up until it doesn't stop
we should take revenge.


Tomorrow
there won't be any mystery
other than illusion
the king star is gonna shine


Tomorrow
the light
over everyone's will
will prevail
will prevail


Tomorrow
there will be hope
as insignificant as it would seem
it exists to flourish


Tomorrow
despite of today
will be the appearing path
that was made to follow


Tomorrow
even though some will not want it
will be for those who wait
to see the day shine


Tomorrow
defeated hate
softened fear
will be complete
will be complete


Video (Portuguese)


https://youtu.be/NGUJtoDzXfw

Great, Duarte ;)

New Englander
11-03-20, 00:25
I'm afraid of a bio weapon that is specifically designed to kill based on genetic profiles of certain ethnic groups. I think we should all get off this site, mabey even shut it down for a while.

Yetos
11-03-20, 00:43
Something is going on happening here,
simple maths give strange and very different resuts

Take a look at bellow,
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

now lets do the most simple math act,
find the mortality per infected, per country

Italy 0.062 %
Iran 0.036 %
China 0.038 %
Korea 0.007 %
Spain 0.021%
France 0.018 %
Germany 0.001 %
UK 0.016 %
Cruiser ship Diamond princess 0.009 %
Japan 0.017 %

Total 0.036 %

it seems that in some countries the death per infected is multiple to x10 and more, comparing others,
so either the virus is selective, or some data are tottaly wrong reports,

offcourse this needs deeper and better analysis,
But lets say comparing Korea and Italy, hm .....

Sweden 0/325
Norway 0/400
Turkey 0/0 0 infected !!!!


someone could also do stats and with population per country.

Salento
11-03-20, 02:16
Edit
Aztec/Inca - off topic
Deleted :)

johen
11-03-20, 05:13
find the mortality per infected, per country

Italy 0.062 %

Korea 0.007 %

Japan 0.017 %

But lets say comparing Korea and Italy,

I don't know the other country.
Until 03/08/2020 8PM, 180,000 people was tested in korea, 42,062 people in Italia, and 7,200 in Japan.


Many health experts predict that death rates overall will decrease as the number of cases rises and the amount of testing increases. South Korea, which has
tested more than 140,000 people (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-cdc-us-facilities-lack-testing-capacity-to-id-cases-2020-3), offers solid evidence for that prediction so far.

Dagne
11-03-20, 08:42
If we wait for the provisions of the central rulers in Rome and their hesitations, there is plenty of time to get another three new epidemics...

I am afraid that health official are very bureaucratic in many countries - in the US they really messed up the testing and now the containment efforts have largely failed there.
In Lithuania we have 3 confirmed cases so far, but it may be misleading because up until yesterday testing was done only for those who either 1) had symptoms and travelled to Italy, China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Iran or 2) had contacts with confirmed cases.

This is not a wise policy - saving on testing but risking to miss a large undetected outbreak. I was reading a story where a woman returned after visiting several different countries and falling ill with flu like symptoms but she could not get herself tested because her travel was not in one among the confirmed country list.

Besides, all who traveled to highly infected countries could take paid absence leave from work for 2 weeks for self quarantine.
This could have been a good idea, but it turns out that some people were abusing it - happily taking two-week paid leave for self quarantine and using it as a extended holiday period - going to restaurants, attending theatre, night clubs and so on. Our health minister himself overheard a couple in theatre's cloakroom talking that it is soooo cool that they can spend their time so nicely because of this self-quarantine paid leave and was furious about it.
As of 10 March the policy of paid leave for people who are not showing symptoms has been cancelled, because the list of countries with more than 1000 cases is just too long now, and it is considered too expensive for health care system to pay leave for all people who traveled outside of Lithuania. Besides, as it turns out not all people can be trusted to impose self-quarantine, unfortunately, and there is not way to install effective monitoring on in. Hopefully more testing will be done to prevent undetected community/hospital spread, and we will not have to wait until people start dying from pneumonia in hospitals and only then the testing will be done.

The good example how to handle the situation is South Korea and Singapore. According to Singapore's forecast, the economic effects of this coronavirus will be likely felt throughout the entire year. Which is way longer that most people in the US or Europe want to believe. So let's be prepared.

Northener
11-03-20, 09:05
Recent research at a hospital in Brabant/The Netherlands has shown 4% of the employees have corona without knowing....
Bad news: this virus is fast and spreads under the radar.
Good news: most people experience no or light illness.

bicicleur
11-03-20, 09:28
Recent research at a hospital in Brabant/The Netherlands has shown 4% of the employees have corona without knowing....
Bad news: this virus is fast and spreads under the radar.
Good news: most people experience no or light illness.

it this is true and not an exception, it should re-emerge in China

Yetos
11-03-20, 10:29
I don't know the other country.
Until 03/08/2020 8PM, 180,000 people was tested in korea, 42,062 people in Italia, and 7,200 in Japan.



official reports
Korea right now, is 54/7755 =0.0069
Italy is 631/10149 = 0.0622

it seems like is not the same virus, someone could say.
from 0.7 % to 6.22 % the distance is very big,

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Dagne
11-03-20, 10:39
Somehow I don't trust Chinese statistics. Even if it re-emerges, they would not show it, as it would be too costly economically and perhaps politically for the Chinese Communist Party. Only good news are allowed whereas the cases would follow the thresholds as "outlined by the party". On the other hand, I suspect that for many other countries/fractions within the countries see economic consequences as more important than people's health so there will be many efforts to disguise/distort the real numbers.

For instance, I read an article in Lt press which was written by a nurse from Lithuania who currently works in a hospital in the Netherlands. She warned about two weeks ago already that according to symptoms there must be many more infected people in the Netherlands compared to official statistics and that anyone returning from the Netherlands should be monitoring their cold/flu symptoms carefully.

Dagne
11-03-20, 10:47
official reports
Korea right now, is 54/7755 =0.0069
Italy is 631/10149 = 0.0622

it seems like is not the same virus, someone could say.
from 0.7 % to 6.22 % the distance is very big,

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


But if we compared number of recovered people to number of deaths (outcome of deaths), the overall fatality rate is about 6%. (and 94% recovered)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-outcome

Supposedly it is because many mild cases went undetected, but I believe many deaths in China went undetected, too.
Regarding Italy's numbers - it is because many cases went undetected and got into statistics only when people were in serious condition in hospitals. In Korea they are proactive and their fatality rate will increase a bit with time (death occurs on average after three weeks since getting infected, not earlier)

Yetos
11-03-20, 11:19
But if we compared number of recovered people to number of deaths (outcome of deaths), the overall fatality rate is about 6%. (and 94% recovered)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-outcome

Supposedly it is because many mild cases went undetected, but I believe many deaths in China went undetected, too.
Regarding Italy's numbers - it is because many cases went undetected and got into statistics only when people were in serious condition in hospitals. In Korea they are proactive and their fatality rate will increase a bit with time (death occurs on average after three weeks since getting infected, not earlier)

could it be like
death papper write from pneumonia, organ failure, etc but not due to corona
or every suspected death --> due to corona,
in these cases we have wrong global data

Korea was infected before Italy

Northener
11-03-20, 11:57
Somehow I don't trust Chinese statistics. Even if it re-emerges, they would not show it, as it would be too costly economically and perhaps politically for the Chinese Communist Party. Only good news are allowed whereas the cases would follow the thresholds as "outlined by the party". On the other hand, I suspect that for many other countries/fractions within the countries see economic consequences as more important than people's health so there will be many efforts to disguise/distort the real numbers.

For instance, I read an article in Lt press which was written by a nurse from Lithuania who currently works in a hospital in the Netherlands. She warned about two weeks ago already that according to symptoms there must be many more infected people in the Netherlands compared to official statistics and that anyone returning from the Netherlands should be monitoring their cold/flu symptoms carefully.

For me it shows that indeed the corona virus is spreading fast and under the radar. Nevertheless in a modern society shut downs are an ultimum remedium. I guess it's partly a question of individual responsibility to be kind of precautious.

And for the healthcare the public service it is a question of early individual containment. But as it is running fast beneath the radar some spread will be inevitable. If you want a total containment we have to walk around in astronaut suits I am afraid....

For the rest it's a question of a good standby for the vunerable and older people. The health care in the Netherlands is able to scale it up to 12.000 beds, that's on the scale of the US 240.000 beds, that can be prepared for the severe ill.

If things come above that level it's going to be critical......

Maciamo
11-03-20, 14:33
For instance, I read an article in Lt press which was written by a nurse from Lithuania who currently works in a hospital in the Netherlands. She warned about two weeks ago already that according to symptoms there must be many more infected people in the Netherlands compared to official statistics and that anyone returning from the Netherlands should be monitoring their cold/flu symptoms carefully.

I am convinced that a huge number of people (many times more than officially reported in each country) are already infected but are mostly asymptomatic, or presenting only mild unspecific symptoms like fatigue and headache. I have heard a lot of people complaining of mild headaches over the last week. Not your typical headache, but the same kind of localised pain you have in your limbs and that comes and goes when you have the flu. I have also had this with fleeting aches in my hands and thymus.


In Lithuania we have 3 confirmed cases so far, but it may be misleading because up until yesterday testing was done only for those who either 1) had symptoms and travelled to Italy, China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Iran or 2) had contacts with confirmed cases.

This is not a wise policy - saving on testing but risking to miss a large undetected outbreak. I was reading a story where a woman returned after visiting several different countries and falling ill with flu like symptoms but she could not get herself tested because her travel was not in one among the confirmed country list.

Most countries only test people with clear symptoms like fever and respiratory weakness. That is why Covid-19 gets underreported. It's not a bad thing. It means that the symptoms are too weak in most people to be concerning and also that the mortality rate is far lower than it appears. Obviously if only serious cases are tested, mortality rates will look incredibly high, when they in fact aren't. I doubt that Covid-19 has a higher mortality than seasonal influenza, at least in people under 60.

Most people who tested positive in countries like Germany, Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Norway were tested only because they were returning from skiing holidays in northern Italy, not because they were sick. That's why mortality rates in these countries are extremely low. At the time of writing these 7 countries had 3067 reported cases, but only 6 deaths (in Germany and the Netherlands). That's only a 0.19% mortality rate. The two dead in Germany were 78 and 89 years old. In the Netherlands, one was 82 years old and another one 86 years old (don't know the two others). Young people healthy enough to go skiing don't normally die from Coronavirus, and most don't even get really sick.

The number of deaths in Italy is unusually high, but Corriere della Sera reported (https://www.corriere.it/salute/malattie_infettive/20_marzo_05/chi-sono-morti-positivi-coronavirus-italia-787076ba-5f18-11ea-bf24-0daffe9dc780.shtml?refresh_ce-cp) (based on ISS data) that the average age of the deceased people was 81 years old (79.9 for men and 83.4 for women, but 3/4 of deaths were men).

Dagne
11-03-20, 14:35
I presume there were much more testing done in S. Korea than in the Netherlands, therefore it is safer in S. Korea now than in the Netherlands. Testing and tracking down contacts is the key for reducing the spread, instead of just leaving things as they are and then being surprised about new cases emerging out of nowhere/or finding that virus is spreading through hospital environment.

I also don't think it would be possible to shut down all countries in the modern world, especially if this coronavirus epidemic is going to last for a year for example. We just have to learn to live with it without causing to much risk to the most vulnerable groups in society.

Northener
11-03-20, 19:02
I presume there were much more testing done in S. Korea than in the Netherlands, therefore it is safer in S. Korea now than in the Netherlands. Testing and tracking down contacts is the key for reducing the spread, instead of just leaving things as they are and then being surprised about new cases emerging out of nowhere/or finding that virus is spreading through hospital environment.

I also don't think it would be possible to shut down all countries in the modern world, especially if this coronavirus epidemic is going to last for a year for example. We just have to learn to live with it without causing to much risk to the most vulnerable groups in society.

I presume that testing is needed when there are concrete indications and or when it's obvious when you have recently been to corona hot spot places. I guess the crucial thing in being safe is that you get adequate care when needed......

Maciamo
11-03-20, 20:47
I checked how quickly the virus spread in each country (all the cases are neatly reported with timelines for each country on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic)). It takes between 6 and 11 days for the number of cases to be multiplied by 10. A few examples:

Iran : 6 days to pass from 90 to 900 cases, then 11 days to pass from 900 to 9000 cases
Italy : 8 days to pass from 150 to 1500, and 11 days to pass from 1000 to 10000 cases.
France : 8.5 days to pass from 100 to 1000 cases
Spain : 8 days to pass from 120 to 1200 cases
Germany : 9 days to pass from 110 to 1100 cases
Switzerland : 7.5 days to pass from 40 to 400 cases
Belgium : 6 days to pass from 23 to 230 cases
Netherlands : 7.5 days to pass from 50 to 500 cases
Sweden : 7 days to pass from 50 to 500 cases
UK : 8.5 days to pass from 45 to 450 cases
USA : 7 days to pass from 100 to 1000 cases

As of today, there about 22,500 reported cases in Europe and 1000 in the USA. If the diffusion speed is sustained, there should be over 200,000 cases in Europe by 19 March, 2 million cases by 27 March and 20 million by 4 April. If we consider that only a fraction of cases get reported (only the minority with moderate to severe symptoms), it is reasonable to assume that most of the European population will have been infected by the end of April, although most people won't even notice it.

The pandemic started later in the USA, so by the same calculation we would have 10,000 officially reported cases by 19 March, 100,000 by 27 March, 1 million by 4 April, 10 million by 11 April and 100 million by 19 April (although I very much doubt that the authorities are going to test millions of people considering the costs and how 90% of people only get mild symptoms). In any case, by the end of April I suspect that the virus will have spread around most of the population in Europe and North America.

Since China cannot afford to keep its people self isolated for months, the virus will start again spreading once people go back to work/school.

blevins13
11-03-20, 21:39
Actually, what Italy is doing is exactly what the WHO and other experts are saying SHOULD be done. It's not panic; it's prudence.

"@WHO (https://twitter.com/WHO)
#Covid19 (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Covid19?src=hashtag_click) mission chief Bruce Aylward says it's not clear other countries have learned the lesson that containment measures have to be put in place quickly & aggressively."

So I guess the WHO is in a state of panic too?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic.html

"It’s now clear that the epidemic was never going to be contained. At most, its spread was slowed by the lockdown imposed in China and other countries’ efforts to identify infected people and anyone they might have been in contact with."

Slowing the spread gives hospitals time to prepare and scientists time to work on a vaccine.

"Governments should also conduct Covid-19 preparedness drills in local hospitals and expand hospitals’ temporary capacity, for example, by setting up emergency tents in parking lots (https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/), as is already happening in some places in the United States. To minimize the strain on overstressed acute-care hospitals, supportive nursing care might have to be provided, in makeshift facilities and patients’ homes, as was done during severe pandemics in the past, such as the Great Influenza of 1918-19."

"In light of the disease’s features, the quarantine of the passengers and crew members on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/22/world/asia/coronavirus-japan-cruise-ship.html) in Yokohama Bay in Japan looks like a cruel experiment: While confined, these people were forced to breathe recycled air for two weeks. The measure achieved little except to prove just how effective the virus is at spreading. Trying to stop influenza-like transmission is a bit like trying to stop the wind."

It's apparently a fecal wind in some cases:

"Nicholas A. Christakis
@NAChristakis
· 14h
COVID-19 may have both respiratory and fecal transmission: While a sneeze by someone with a respiratory disease can only infect others within a few meters, virus-laden gaseous plume from infected person with diarrhea can infect others up to 200 meters."

I am wondering if you still believe that Italy was prudent....


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blevins13
11-03-20, 21:43
In Italy should have been more carefully, now it will going to spread all over Europe.
Albania is completely vulnerable considering ties with Italy.




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A scenario that now has become a reality.....an it is going to get worse before it will get better.


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bigsnake49
11-03-20, 23:28
official reports
Korea right now, is 54/7755 =0.0069
Italy is 631/10149 = 0.0622

it seems like is not the same virus, someone could say.
from 0.7 % to 6.22 % the distance is very big,

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

If the reported numbers are correct it can be explained by the fact that Italy is the oldest population (by percentage of old people) in Europe. This virus is pretty deadly to old people while young people develop mild to no symptoms.

Remember too that if there a lotto people not nested yet like in the US (because we don't have testing kits) then the statistics will show higher fatality rate. Also if you do not show symptoms you probably won't get tested even though you contracted the virus.

Jovialis
12-03-20, 03:16
Trump has declared all travel from Europe to US is suspended for 30 days, starting Friday at midnight.

Jovialis
12-03-20, 03:18
A scenario that now has become a reality.....an it is going to get worse before it will get better.
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Why don't you blame China for trying to imprison the doctor that blew the whistle? You seem to want to blame Italy.

Duarte
12-03-20, 03:20
https://youtu.be/HVl2q9rWNrA

Duarte
12-03-20, 04:07
https://i.imgur.com/QGFvzKe.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/QzpvSDf.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/16sPaj4.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/kYDqxuj.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/RurkWeR.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/NANZvko.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/ZLTxOeX.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/eIhkKFV.jpg

Duarte
12-03-20, 04:22
Vodka is more effective in preventing Covid-19 than a hand sanitizer (Purell).

https://i.imgur.com/0KVRfFq.jpg

Jovialis
12-03-20, 04:24
Trump has declared all travel from Europe to US is suspended for 30 days, starting Friday at midnight.

The travel ban also applies to goods. This is going to certainly imperil the EU's economy.

Jovialis
12-03-20, 04:41
https://i.imgur.com/QGFvzKe.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/QzpvSDf.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/16sPaj4.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/kYDqxuj.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/RurkWeR.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/NANZvko.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/ZLTxOeX.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/eIhkKFV.jpg

Great info, goes to show the power of the media. They are doing this for ratings, and to damage the U.S. economy to make Trump lose re-election. Trump knew all along that Coronavirus is really no big deal. But now he is "playing ball" to destroy the economic rivals of the USA (i.e. EU and China.)

Salento
12-03-20, 06:01
Great info, goes to show the power of the media. They are doing this for ratings, and to damage the U.S. economy to make Trump lose re-election. Trump knew all along that Coronavirus is really no big deal. But now he is "playing ball" to destroy the economic rivals of the USA (i.e. EU and China.)

Maybe it's somewhere in the middle, but just in case,

... Assuming there’s a plan in action to solve the problem that our pharmaceutical companies moved most of their manufacturing overseas, and the raw material is also foreign (... possible blackmail)

Hopefully we’re stockpiling our inventories too.

... better safe than sorry :)

Maciamo
12-03-20, 12:01
Vodka is more effective in preventing Covid-19 than a hand sanitizer (Purell).

https://i.imgur.com/0KVRfFq.jpg

I suppose that you mentioned that as a joke. The lack of reported cases in Russia is just as political as the original cover-up in China. Or perhaps due to a lack of testing (which in itself may be politically motivated). In any case, Vodka doesn't work against coronavirus as it contains less than 60% of alcohol.

BBC News - Coronavirus: Don't use vodka to sanitise hands (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51763775)

Maciamo
12-03-20, 12:08
The travel ban also applies to goods. This is going to certainly imperil the EU's economy.

That's a stupid policy that is going to do more harm than good. The US economy is going to suffer as much as Europe's as imports and exports run in the hundreds of billions of $/€ per year in both directions.

Even banning travel of people isn't going to stop or even noticeably slow down the diffusion of the virus in the US. I am ready to bet that there will be millions of cases in the USA (and Europe) in April whatever governments do.

Dagne
12-03-20, 12:19
I checked how quickly the virus spread in each country (all the cases are neatly reported with timelines for each country on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic)). It takes between 6 and 11 days for the number of cases to be multiplied by 10. A few examples:

Iran : 6 days to pass from 90 to 900 cases, then 11 days to pass from 900 to 9000 cases
Italy : 8 days to pass from 150 to 1500, and 11 days to pass from 1000 to 10000 cases.
France : 8.5 days to pass from 100 to 1000 cases
Spain : 8 days to pass from 120 to 1200 cases
Germany : 9 days to pass from 110 to 1100 cases
Switzerland : 7.5 days to pass from 40 to 400 cases
Belgium : 6 days to pass from 23 to 230 cases
Netherlands : 7.5 days to pass from 50 to 500 cases
Sweden : 7 days to pass from 50 to 500 cases
UK : 8.5 days to pass from 45 to 450 cases
USA : 7 days to pass from 100 to 1000 cases

As of today, there about 22,500 reported cases in Europe and 1000 in the USA. If the diffusion speed is sustained, there should be over 200,000 cases in Europe by 19 March, 2 million cases by 27 March and 20 million by 4 April. If we consider that only a fraction of cases get reported (only the minority with moderate to severe symptoms), it is reasonable to assume that most of the European population will have been infected by the end of April, although most people won't even notice it.

The pandemic started later in the USA, so by the same calculation we would have 10,000 officially reported cases by 19 March, 100,000 by 27 March, 1 million by 4 April, 10 million by 11 April and 100 million by 19 April (although I very much doubt that the authorities are going to test millions of people considering the costs and how 90% of people only get mild symptoms). In any case, by the end of April I suspect that the virus will have spread around most of the population in Europe and North America.

Since China cannot afford to keep its people self isolated for months, the virus will start again spreading once people go back to work/school.


The calculation is quite impressive. It would be wise to get some effective prevention measures not to get all serious cases coming up at once.

Regarding China, according to a weather map (Windy:NO2 levels) Wuhan has started to work because the emissions are high again.
This is really a cool world weather site Windy.com

But I really doubt if the Chinese communist party will allow to report cases openly. Just a month ago, they fired the highest communist party leadership on regional level because they allowed reporting cases based on lung scans due to which statistics increased. Those who know how things are done in China say that firstly, there are no mechanism to collect the reliable statistical figures on infection cases and fatalities, secondly, whatever statistics are collected, they are "massaged" to look logical and follow the propaganda narrative. Inasmuch as the current Chinese narrative is about how the great communist party conquered the virus, they would not allow the statistic of coronavirus starting to spread again.

Besides, it could be the case that many people got over with the illness and have immunity by now.

Dagne
12-03-20, 12:30
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/images/05-0979-F1.gif

This is the statistic on Spanish flu mortality rate in the UK. It is not 10% as in one of the pictures above, but 0.5% during its first wave or 2.5% during the second wave. The Spanish flu could kill faster though, it was reported that people with strong immunity system could start feeling first symptoms in the morning and be dead by the next morning.

Northener
12-03-20, 12:42
Great info, goes to show the power of the media. They are doing this for ratings, and to damage the U.S. economy to make Trump lose re-election. Trump knew all along that Coronavirus is really no big deal. But now he is "playing ball" to destroy the economic rivals of the USA (i.e. EU and China.)

conspiracy theory. In fact Trump is doing ‘symbol’ politics by shutting down the flights from Europe. This causes an economic disaster see Maciamo’s analysis.
Trump thinks and acts as if he knows better than the medical experts....one big fail.

Duarte
12-03-20, 13:33
I suppose that you mentioned that as a joke. The lack of reported cases in Russia is just as political as the original cover-up in China. Or perhaps due to a lack of testing (which in itself may be politically motivated). In any case, Vodka doesn't work against coronavirus as it contains less than 60% of alcohol.
BBC News - Coronavirus: Don't use vodka to sanitise hands (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51763775)

Yes, Maciamo.

It is a Brazilian-style joke and, at the same time, an irony with the Russian authorities and its eternal president. In fact, nothing with less than 70% alcohol is effective for hand hygiene. It would be the same as telling Brazilians to clean their hands with cachaça. It would not be efficient because cachaça has 40% alcohol. Anyway, Putin and Bolsonaro are equivalent, each in their own way.

Cheers :)

Salento
12-03-20, 13:59
The United States proactively restricted entry from China in January, Europe has been slower to do the same,
as a result, many cases in the United States have not come from China, but Europe.

The travel ban is “from Europe” and not “to Europe” !

bicicleur
12-03-20, 14:03
That's a stupid policy that is going to do more harm than good. The US economy is going to suffer as much as Europe's as imports and exports run in the hundreds of billions of $/€ per year in both directions.

Even banning travel of people isn't going to stop or even noticeably slow down the diffusion of the virus in the US. I am ready to bet that there will be millions of cases in the USA (and Europe) in April whatever governments do.

goods can't be contaminated with corona, only humans
this measure is as stupid as can be

as for humans, for sure corona will spread in the US as well, but the longer they can postpone and spread the peak, the better

blevins13
12-03-20, 14:13
Why don't you blame China for trying to imprison the doctor that blew the whistle? You seem to want to blame Italy.

I don’t blame Italy, I just think that should have been more prudent.......


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Jovialis
12-03-20, 14:16
https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2020/03/11/covid-19-and-its-weather-dependency/

This thing will die off when it gets warmer.

Salento
12-03-20, 14:40
conspiracy theory. In fact Trump is doing ‘symbol’ politics by shutting down the flights from Europe. This causes an economic disaster see Maciamo’s analysis.
Trump thinks and acts as if he knows better than the medical experts....one big fail.

The travel ban from Europe, means that as of now the US can still Export to Europe.

Belittling the President of the United States is getting old and boring, America has experienced exceptional historical positive records under President Trump administration.

Whatever Media you gravitate to doesn’t tell you all the facts.

Jovialis
12-03-20, 14:55
https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2020/03/11/covid-19-and-its-weather-dependency/

This thing will die off when it gets warmer.

https://i.imgur.com/R5l7Bul.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/vhG2TyO.jpg

Jovialis
12-03-20, 15:19
https://i.imgur.com/HaPkQNR.png
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

While this will surely impact the U.S. economy, the USA will probably fare the storm better. Such as in times of austerity, the rich are better insulated from hardships.

In the valley of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

There is also an important caveat to all of this, the travel ban does not apply to the UK, who will probably be a middle man for European goods, I would guess.

At first, I thought this could be a Chernobyl-like disaster for the communist party in China; causing them to collapse. But perhaps it is the Chernobyl of the current order of globalization.

FYI, these are merely my observations. I think this is a power-play by the Trump administration to change the world order. The USA became the single world power in the aftermath of destruction from WWII. Perhaps the Trump administration see this as an opportunity to seize power once again, to create a uni-polar world.

Here is the address from last night:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcsZjfs2cB4

Yetos
12-03-20, 15:33
infection per country population in European continent
per 1000 people

population data by WIKIPEDIA
data of infection 12/03/20 3:22 EET (east Europe time)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Denmark 0,105
Norway 0.117
sweden 0.049
Italy 0.207
Spain 0.049
Deutch 0.025
Greece 0.009
Porugal 0.006
France 0.034
Ireland 0.007
Belgium 0.027
Netherlands 0.029
Austria 0.034
Czech 0.009
Slovakia 0.002
Poland 0.001
Magyar 0.001
Finland 0.011
Esthonia 0.012
Lettonia 0.005
Lithuania 0.001
Belarus 0.001
Rmania 0.003
Serbia 0.003
Bulgaria 0.001
Croatia 0.005
Severna Mac 0.003
Albania 0.005
Bosnia 0.003

interesting states
Ukraine 0.000025
Turkey 0.000012
Russia 0.0002


outside Europe
Iran 0.121
Korea S 0.151
Japan 0.005
India 0.000054
Singapore 0.032



Highest infected in Europe per 1000
Italy 0.207
Norway 0.117
Denmark 0.105

lowest
Turkey 0.000012

Global average mortality (deaths / confirmed infected) 3.69%

Northener
12-03-20, 17:13
https://i.imgur.com/HaPkQNR.png
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

While this will surely impact the U.S. economy, the USA will probably fare the storm better. Such as in times of austerity, the rich are better insulated from hardships.

In the valley of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

There is also an important caveat to all of this, the travel ban does not apply to the UK, who will probably be a middle man for European goods, I would guess.

At first, I thought this could be a Chernobyl-like disaster for the communist party in China; causing them to collapse. But perhaps it is the Chernobyl of the current order of globalization.

FYI, these are merely my observations. I think this is a power-play by the Trump administration to change the world order. The USA became the single world power in the aftermath of destruction from WWII. Perhaps the Trump administration see this as an opportunity to cease power once again, to create a uni-polar world.

Here is the address from last night:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcsZjfs2cB4


The travel ban from Europe, means that as of now the US can still Export to Europe.

Belittling the President of the United States is getting old and boring, America has experienced exceptional historical positive records under President Trump administration.

Whatever Media you gravitate to doesn’t tell you all the facts.



The masterplan? The use of corona in powerplay?

I guess not this is window dressing, watch me the Alpha Man.... this looks powerful, but is this powerful?

Corona can be devestating especially in the US. 10% of the people have no health care assurance. Lot's of people can't afford to stay at home when it comes to a 'Italy scenario'. So the effects in the US could be worse than in Europe....

And 'the good old days' of colonialism are gone Jovialis, the US have promoted good trade relationships.....this will harm it very much! Not only Europeans have to pay the bill ( direct US flights are for example 10% of the Royal Dutch Airways business) this is in the long run also bad for the Americans (or do I have to explain Adam Smith to you ;)

Jovialis
12-03-20, 17:20
The masterplan? The use of corona in powerplay?

I guess not this is window dressing, watch me the Alpha Man.... this looks powerful, but is this powerful?

Corona can be devestating especially in the US. 10% of the people have no health care assurance. Lot's of people can't afford to stay at home when it comes to a 'Italy scenario'. So the effects in the US could be worse than in Europe....

And 'the good old days' of colonialism are gone Jovialis, the US have promoted good trade relationships.....this will harm it very much! Not only Europeans have to pay the bill ( direct US flights are for example 10% of the Royal Dutch Airways business) this is in the long run also bad for the Americans (or do I have to explain Adam Smith to you ;)

You are going to keep this discussion civilized, because I am not going to tolerate your provocations.

Where did I say this was my endorsement? This is merely speculation. Believe what you want, because you seem to be convinced of yourself. Just like every other ideologue.

Northener
12-03-20, 17:39
You are going to keep this discussion civilized, because I am not going to tolerate your provocations.

Where did I say this was my endorsement? This is merely speculation. Believe what you want, because you seem to be convinced of yourself. Just like every other ideologue.

you first come up with some conspiracy theory than with the idea of US masterplan world hegemony and when I express my heavily doubts than I am uncivilized....come on Jovialis!

Jovialis
12-03-20, 17:44
you first come up with some conspiracy theory than with the idea of US masterplan world hegemony and when I express my heavily doubts than I am uncivilized....come on Jovialis!

I posted the video of Trump's address, take it as you will. I am allowed to comment my thoughts on it, just like everyone else. Perhaps you are too gullible to think that every state is not out for their own self-interests. Perhaps you were sleeping, but Trump wants to facilitate the end of the current system of globalism, or re-tool it, and a return to undisputed U.S. hegemony; what do you "Make America Great Again" was all about? Your sarcastic, sanctimonious, attitude is not constructive. You can express your "Heavy doubts" with out it.

Northener
12-03-20, 17:59
I posted the video of Trump's address, take it as you will. I am allowed to comment my thoughts on it, just like everyone else. Perhaps you are too gullible to think that every state is not out for their own self-interests. Perhaps you were sleeping, but Trump wants to facilitate the end of the current system globalism, or re-tool it, and a return to undisputed U.S. hegemony; what do you this "Make America Great Again" was all about? Your sarcastic, sanctimonious, high-handed attitude is not constructive.
Absolute right! I am a great defender of agree to disagree. But I never intent or use personal attacks, so in that sense not uncivilized. I like to express my view you like you want to express yours.... and I intent to keep it on topic not ad hominem.

I have fully the right to doubt if the import stop from Europe is in the long run good for the US too, I am not the only one here by the way.

I consider, so my view, it of greater strength when the US used the Roosevelt doctrine, speak softly and carry a big stick. IMO Trump uses the contra doctrine, speak bluntly and carry a small stick ;) The power of the US is really not that big anymore like in the days of Roosevelt and a big mouth can’t hide that.

Just my opinion feel free to discuss this....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Stick_ideology

Jovialis
12-03-20, 18:11
The power of the US is really not that big anymore

https://i.imgur.com/MqTztBT.png

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/power-rankings
https://www.businessinsider.com/worlds-most-powerful-countries-2020-ranked-us-news-2020-1#3-china-23

Angela
12-03-20, 18:13
https://i.imgur.com/R5l7Bul.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/vhG2TyO.jpg

Makes complete sense. In Lombardia and adjacent areas you have the perfect temperature and humidity for this thing, and a population with very high percentages of the elderly.

The problem is that even if it dies down in summer, it will probably return in the fall and winter. By then, also, many, many people will have died.

As to the fact that CoVid 19 exploded "like a bomb" in Lombardia, again, the similarity to Washington State is noteworthy. In Italy Patient Zero has not definitively been identified. In Washington State the person they think might have been Patient Zero, a person from China, flew into the country very early in January, perhaps only a few days to a week after the virus was isolated in Wuhan. There's nothing anyone could have done at that point. To blame Washington State or the U.S. is pointless and stupid.

The first recorded case in Europe was in Munich, where a woman flew in from China for meetings. The lucky thing for Germany at that point is that the woman fell ill on the plane going back to China, and either she or health authorities informed the health authorities in Munich. The people with whom she came into contact were "self quarantined". I'm sure it stopped a lot of infections. Did it stop all of the spread? I doubt it.

The virus mutates every so often. The virus sequenced in Italy carries the exact same three mutations carried by the sequence in the prior cluster in Munich. Scientific American addresses the situation and concludes that it's impossible to tell if the initial spread was from the prior case in Munich to Lombardy, or if two (or more) people from Fujian traveled to both Munich and Lombardy.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mutations-can-reveal-how-coronavirus-moves-they-re-easy-overinterpret


I'm sure we'll never know. For what it's worth, I'm skeptical of the probability of the latter scenario because between the case in Munich and the cases in Lombardy Italy had closed travel from China and was doing temperature checks.

I think it's also important to note, that contrary to the t-rolls here, not all cases in other countries are connected to Italy. That's just where they are looking. Epidemiolgists are always a step behind.

"On 25 and 26 February, following the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy), multiple cases related to the Italian outbreak were detected in Baden-Württemberg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baden-W%C3%BCrttemberg). Other cases, which were not related to the Italian clusters, occurred in multiple regions including Baden-Württemberg, North Rhine-Westphalia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Rhine-Westphalia) and Rhineland-Palatinate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhineland-Palatinate). A specific cluster formed in Heinsberg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinsberg_(district)) was linked to the Carnival (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnival) in Gangelt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gangelt).[7] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Germany#cite_note-:5-7) Currently, the largest number of COVID-19 cases in Germany are in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Rhine-Westphalia).[8] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Germany#cite_note-rki-8) There have been 18 recoveries.[9] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Germany#cite_note-:0-9)

Wiki: Coronavirus in Germany. I would also mention that Germany does not list deaths as due to Coronavirus when there are other comorbidities, from what I read online. That may be wrong, and even if it's correct, I assign no particular motive to it. However, it doesn't make much sense from a public health point of view if it's being done. It would give a false sense of security,

Let's assume for the moment it happened that way. Would that justify me blaming Germany? Of course not. That would be both incendiary and stupid. At that stage in this pandemic, we didn't know people were most infectious BEFORE they presented symptoms. The only thing Germany could have done at that point would have been to seal Germany's borders and prevent anyone from leaving for any reason. Can anyone say that any country would have done that at that point? Hindsight is always 20/20. Our experience here in the New York area is informative. A lawyer in a suburban town came down with it. He had traveled abroad, but none of the places to which he traveled had reported cases at that time, so he wasn't quarantined. They have been contact tracing like mad. So far, he is "responsible" for 50 cases. He may be one of the "super-spreaders". Is that his fault? Is it the fault of the authorities for following the guidelines in place at that time, guidelines from the WHO and CDC at that time?

This brings me to the case in Modugno. No one knows if that person was actually Patient Zero or where he got it. The fact is that he was released after a few days because he had not been to China or traveled at all, and his friend who had been to China was tested and was negative for it, and he definitely presented with BACTERIAL pneumonia, which adequately explained his symptoms. All the WHO guidelines in place at the time were followed. Similar things happened all over the U.S. and I'm sure other places around the world. Who is to "blame" for that?

I realize that when people get very anxious some will tend to lash out in an attempt to manage that anxiety, and in doing that you sometimes see more of people's underlying prejudices than you wish you had seen. It's not helpful, however.

Italy's ex-premier made a public appeal to other countries not to repeat Italy's "mistakes". From what I can see, those mistakes were in not shutting the country down immediately after the first few cases appeared. I don't see most countries doing that. There was a children's parade in France, soccer fans using their booked airfare and hotels in England even though the games were cancelled, the English fans going to the Cheltenham races, young people here booking cruises at cut rate prices and on and on.

It's time to take responsibility for one's self and one's family, and if that means ignoring the platitudes from the WHO, CDC etc., then do it. The craziness with masks comes to mind. Yes, we want to make sure health care workers have the N95 masks. However, I still believe that part of China's relative "success" is that in their culture wearing a mask during any infectious period, even for colds, is commonplace. They sell them on the street from stands, like cigarettes or condoms. People should be using them, especially in high cluster areas.

This Italian doctor presents one of the most informative and cogent clips I've seen. Anyone who still thinks this is overblown should watch it a couple of times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&amp;v=9mrPHO-nkVE&amp;feature=emb_logo

One more word in this very long thread about cargo being stopped. I have been arguing about this with my family for over a week. It was announced yesterday that the virus lives on paper and cardboard for up to 24 hours, and on plastic and steel for up to 72 hours.

Imo, the situation in Korea is not analogous. Luckily for the country, a few severe cases showed up all belonging to the same religious sect, a sect whose members had been in Wuhan. These people socialized mainly with themselves, which made it a bit easier to find, test, and quarantine people. Also, again, if I'm not mistaken, they also have the "mask culture", as does Hong Kong.

Northener
12-03-20, 18:15
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/power-rankings

Of course, and I am for example a great defender of the free spirit, that Russia and China don’t have.

But I mentioned the relative position, the tendency, and than is the US kind of over the top.

Maciamo
12-03-20, 19:25
https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2020/03/11/covid-19-and-its-weather-dependency/

This thing will die off when it gets warmer.

From what I have read, Coronavirus is not temperature sensitive like the seasonal flu. In fact, it spread easily in places that remained warm in winter, like central and southern China, Iran, the Arabian peninsula and California - all places that have had temperature above 20°C (68°F) in the last few weeks. In Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrein and the UAE it's more like 27°C (80°F) in average, so hotter than northern Europe in summer.

Duarte
12-03-20, 19:55
Most renowned doctors in São Paulo: 45 thousand with coronavirus in Greater São Paulo in 4 months; 11 thousand in the ICU.

An audio of Doctor Fábio Jatene, Director of the Thoracic Surgery Service of the Instituto do Coração (InCor) of Hospital das Clínicas, reports a meeting with some of the most renowned doctors in São Paulo who predict: in 4 months there will be 45 thousand people with coronavirus only in Greater São Paulo, alone and 11 thousand will need ICUs, which do not exist in that number. Doctors present a dramatic scenario for the spread of coronavirus in the country.
David Uip (infectologist), Esper Cavalheiro (neurologist) and Marcelo Amato (intensive care specialist, specialized in ICUs) participated in the scientific meeting, among other doctors.


According to Uip, the cases should explode in the country from now on and that the maximum focus of attention will be the elderly. The mortality rate among them reaches 18%, while among young people it is 0.2%. Scenario, according to doctors, is of great concern.

They also predict that in four months the peak of the disease will pass.

johen
12-03-20, 20:13
Covid-19 is an opportunity for europe

"The COVID-19 pandemic thus represents an opportunity for the EU to create a powerful crisis-management mechanism, which pools member states’ resources and channels them toward a coordinated fiscal policy. The idea of such an “insurance fund” is not new: several economists championed the idea after the last crisis, when discussion of governance reform was in full swing.
The EU has tended to make the most progress in bad times. And, as the millions of people currently on lockdown (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-live-updates-third-death-in-australia-as-cases-reach-more-than-70) in Italy can attest, the COVID-19 outbreak is a very bad time. Now is the moment for the EU to take swift coordinated action and capitalize on the momentum to build the institutions it needs to facilitate even more effective action next time."

Duarte
12-03-20, 20:29
Most renowned doctors in São Paulo: 45 thousand with coronavirus in Greater São Paulo in 4 months; 11 thousand in the ICU.

An audio of Doctor Fábio Jatene, Director of the Thoracic Surgery Service of the Instituto do Coração (InCor) of Hospital das Clínicas, reports a meeting with some of the most renowned doctors in São Paulo who predict: in 4 months there will be 45 thousand people with coronavirus only in Greater São Paulo, alone and 11 thousand will need ICUs, which do not exist in that number. Doctors present a dramatic scenario for the spread of coronavirus in the country.
David Uip (infectologist), Esper Cavalheiro (neurologist) and Marcelo Amato (intensive care specialist, specialized in ICUs) participated in the scientific meeting, among other doctors.


According to Uip, the cases should explode in the country from now on and that the maximum focus of attention will be the elderly. The mortality rate among them reaches 18%, while among young people it is 0.2%. Scenario, according to doctors, is of great concern.

They also predict that in four months the peak of the disease will pass.

Not that I want to make fun of disgrace. It's not my intention. But I pass another example of the Brazilian way of making a joke. Soon after the leak of Dr. Jatene's audio, I received this meme. The guy who sent me this was my colleague at the university (my class at the university maintains a closed group on Whatsapp, where only us participate). And he is the guy, gold medal of my class (I was the silver medal). He is a PhD, post-PhD, he was president of a multinational of the steel industry and until a few months ago he was president of the Development Company of my State. In Brazil we can lost a friend, but we can’t lost a joke:
https://i.imgur.com/C4GPng4.jpg

Yetos
12-03-20, 20:37
Strange, no 1

Until today in mycountry Greece

we have 90 deaths from Seasonal imfluenza, out of 217 confirmed cases,
and 33 of them had done the anual vacin,
in the 20 days of coronavirus we have 99 infected, and 1 dead.
data are published the time that this post is written,


Strange no2

from my post #224 no matter today are all EU
it seems that West of Alps the spreading of corova infected per population is much higher than East of Alps, with min 0.02 per thousand
exception Portugal and Ireland,
East of Alps, or better to countries which once were behind iron curtain, the spread seems much much lower, with max 0.005 /1000
except Esthonia

Finland and Greece which where the countries nearby ex behind curtain, outside of Alpine core and West Europe core, the percentage is almost equal, 0.011 0.009

Northener
12-03-20, 21:14
That's a stupid policy that is going to do more harm than good. The US economy is going to suffer as much as Europe's as imports and exports run in the hundreds of billions of $/€ per year in both directions.

Even banning travel of people isn't going to stop or even noticeably slow down the diffusion of the virus in the US. I am ready to bet that there will be millions of cases in the USA (and Europe) in April whatever governments do.

Indeed and we see already the short term consequences;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gqTi3wfuqM

Angela
12-03-20, 21:28
I guess instead of banning travel the idea is let it spread throughout the world unchecked until "herd immunity" is achieved?

People should make up their minds. First it's quarantine everyone, or at least shut everything down early to "flatten the curve"; if you don't or didn't it's your fault if it spreads. Now it's hey, let's keep that travel and commerce going, who cares?

Problem is that if it spreads unchecked, and even 10% of the infected need ICUs all within a few months all our health systems will crash, bar none. Good luck then if you have a heart attack or get cancer or need dialysis.

I suppose some people think it will only happen to the other guy. Good luck with that.

If the hospitals are going to "triage" health care, I bet someone will suggest that perhaps those who didn't believe it was worth worrying about should go to the bottom of the list.

The market has been gyrating wildly for days. It's not all about Europe. It's about FEAR as they realize that if everything is locked down the way it is in Italy their stocks may be worth a fraction of their prior value. That includes me, by the way. Not all my money is in metals and government securities.

Among the many in the list of what "they" should have done, imo "they" should have closed trading days ago.

Northener
12-03-20, 22:05
I guess instead of banning travel the idea is let it spread throughout the world unchecked until "herd immunity" is achieved?

People should make up their minds. First it's quarantine everyone, or at least shut everything down early to "flatten the curve"; if you don't or didn't it's your fault if it spreads. Now it's hey, let's keep that travel and commerce going, who cares?

Problem is that if it spreads unchecked, and even 10% of the infected need ICUs all within a few months all our health systems will crash, bar none. Good luck then if you have a heart attack or get cancer or need dialysis.

I suppose some people think it will only happen to the other guy. Good luck with that.

If the hospitals are going to "triage" health care, I bet someone will suggest that perhaps those who didn't believe it was worth worrying about should go to the bottom of the list.

The market has been gyrating wildly for days. It's not all about Europe. It's about FEAR as they realize that if everything is locked down the way it is in Italy their stocks may be worth a fraction of their prior value. That includes me, by the way. Not all my money is in metals and government securities.

Among the many in the list of what "they" should have done, imo "they" should have closed trading days ago.

The point is that there are many doubts if the effect of this travel ban is substantial. Different medical experts say: this is window dressing, 'symbol' politics.

Fact is that the virus is already spreading in the US, so as a prevention measure it's way too late....

So admitted speculative but this measure seems to be one in the category 'to blame the evil outside world', at the same time the spread in the US (like in Europe) goes further, but what are the effective 'intern' measures?

Of course the situation is critical but if this justifies such a travel ban.....this deepfreezes the economy, not only in the US but in Europe too.

torzio
12-03-20, 22:09
many Italians already in Australia on a 1 year visit have been automatically extended to 2 years ...........so my cousin has 18 months left in Perth ...............most are under 35 yo

her mum in Veneto said....you can only go directly to the chemist or groceries now and if you walk around you get questioned and fined

Northener
12-03-20, 22:44
I guess instead of banning travel the idea is let it spread throughout the world unchecked until "herd immunity" is achieved?

People should make up their minds. First it's quarantine everyone, or at least shut everything down early to "flatten the curve"; if you don't or didn't it's your fault if it spreads. Now it's hey, let's keep that travel and commerce going, who cares?

Problem is that if it spreads unchecked, and even 10% of the infected need ICUs all within a few months all our health systems will crash, bar none. Good luck then if you have a heart attack or get cancer or need dialysis.

I suppose some people think it will only happen to the other guy. Good luck with that.

If the hospitals are going to "triage" health care, I bet someone will suggest that perhaps those who didn't believe it was worth worrying about should go to the bottom of the list.

The market has been gyrating wildly for days. It's not all about Europe. It's about FEAR as they realize that if everything is locked down the way it is in Italy their stocks may be worth a fraction of their prior value. That includes me, by the way. Not all my money is in metals and government securities.

Among the many in the list of what "they" should have done, imo "they" should have closed trading days ago.

To give you an impression how 'the rest of the world' is conceiving this, this article from the German weekly newspaper Die Zeit, one of the best in depth newspapers of Europe. Very prudent.

This is their headline today:


The paranoid president

Donald Trump doesn't understand the corona pandemic. Instead: the Europeans as scapegoats. To save lives, the US president would have to do the opposite in everything.

https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2020-03/coronavirus-usa-donald-trump-pandemie

Carlos
12-03-20, 22:59
A nurse from Madrid has sent me a voice message saying that things are more serious than what is being said, that the politicians
Yes it is to be alarmed.

have done it and are doing fatal. There are two young boys and girls who know they are going to die. Children are the ones that present milder symptoms but are great contagious, avoid taking them with grandparents, who are the most vulnerable group. And he advises me to leave home for the essentials, avoid meetings, congregations, bars, restaurants, e.t.c.


What the governments or politicians do not say is said by a nurse.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kU7GbZjMfX0

Minister Celaá with "purple" gloves in the demonstration of the women who had no nose to postpone.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcRxT7Aw08ia5TyinXmwga52mVAMdxE bFH6usO-wtKoIAoeER_E8

Pablo Iglesias's wife and that he has put to the finger in a ministry, because that plover's head is already infested.

Angela
13-03-20, 00:00
To give you an impression how 'the rest of the world' is conceiving this, this article from the German weekly newspaper Die Zeit, one of the best in depth newspapers of Europe. Very prudent.

This is their headline today:



https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2020-03/coronavirus-usa-donald-trump-pandemie

Let me be clear: I don't give a darn how the rest of the world perceives the U.S., or even how they perceive Trump. Did you really expect that I would? Not all Americans have this attitude, but at least 50% and more certainly do, and I'm one of them.

It may make me angry, as it does, as did the stupid comments about Italy, but I would never "internalize" any of it in either situation. I haven't expected intelligent, rational political opinions from Europeans since so many of them all got on the unilateral disarmament bandwagon.

I'd also say that's pretty rich coming from Germany, given how some of their ministers have been touting how efficient they've been at contact tracing and quarantining people.

Just out of curiosity, should travel from China have been banned? Were the people of Hong Kong wrong to close the bridges to China? Isn't the banning of internal travel, indeed, the banning of movement on the streets part of the reason that China was able to lower the infection and death rate?

Closing access off from highly infected areas is either a good idea or it's not. If it's a good idea it should be done. Why should Europe, including Italy, get a pass?

Do I think that closing access from Europe means it won't continue to spread in the U.S.? Of course not, but why in hell would anyone INCREASE the problem???

Sorry; it makes no sense to me.

As for anyone thinking that Trump wanted to do it, well, I'd ask if that person is using recreational drugs. This is ruining his economy and stock market, an economy and stock market which put Europe's and everyone else's completely in the shade. Really, Trump derangement syndrome makes some of these leaders look like fools.

Before you respond, I didn't vote for him, I intensely dislike him as a person, and I don't think he was doing a great job on the coronavirus. Yesterday was better. He's a quick learner. Hopefully, he'll get it even more together. Who with any decency wouldn't want him to get this under control? This is people's lives, and also their livelihoods and the savings of a lifetime. I, for one, and most people, I think, don't take it lightly that under the best case scenario we might lose really large percentages of people over 60, or people who have any kind of health issues. Those are people we love, to whom we're deeply attached, and who would be sorely missed. If some people don't feel that way about the older and less healthy people in their lives, then I feel deeply sorry for them. They're missing so much.

I'm also amazed by the arrogance of thinking I've seen in some people on the internet that because one is on the "right" side of 60, this isn't important. There are 20 and 30 year olds in ICU with this. I wonder if people with this attitude would change their minds if they wind up in an ICU? And no, this isn't just like the flu.

Angela
13-03-20, 01:51
Why am I not surprised by how China is framing this...

"China steps up in assisting Italy after the country reportedly didn't get help from the EU to battle COVID-19."
https://newsus.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-13/China-sends-medical-experts-to-help-Italy-battle-COVID-19-OOuv42jQnm/index.html

Of course, for China it's great public relations. Not that I care. I was in tears most of yesterday. My poor Italy. I'm grateful for help from wherever it comes. Let China have its public relations coup.

I also don't doubt that Italy was told it was on its own. So much for EU solidarity and concerted and common effort against this.

Hopefully this will change the mind of any Italians who still wanted to be part of the European union.

Angela
13-03-20, 02:52
Why am I not surprised by how China is framing this...

"China steps up in assisting Italy after the country reportedly didn't get help from the EU to battle COVID-19."
https://newsus.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-13/China-sends-medical-experts-to-help-Italy-battle-COVID-19-OOuv42jQnm/index.html

Of course, for China it's great public relations. Not that I care. I was in tears most of yesterday. My poor Italy. I'm grateful for help from wherever it comes. Let China have its public relations coup.

I also don't doubt that Italy was told it was on its own. So much for EU solidarity and concerted and common effort against this.

Hopefully this will change the mind of any Italians who still wanted to be part of the European union.

The U.S. is supposed to not ban people from Europe coming to the U.S., but if Italy hadn't unilaterally closed its borders I'm absolutely certain people from Italy trying to get out would have been met by armed troops.

Seems a bit like don't do what I do, do what I say.

Northener
13-03-20, 08:46
Let me be clear: I don't give a darn how the rest of the world perceives the U.S., or even how they perceive Trump. Did you really expect that I would? Not all Americans have this attitude, but at least 50% and more certainly do, and I'm one of them.

It may make me angry, as it does, as did the stupid comments about Italy, but I would never "internalize" any of it in either situation. I haven't expected intelligent, rational political opinions from Europeans since so many of them all got on the unilateral disarmament bandwagon.

I'd also say that's pretty rich coming from Germany, given how some of their ministers have been touting how efficient they've been at contact tracing and quarantining people.

Just out of curiosity, should travel from China have been banned? Were the people of Hong Kong wrong to close the bridges to China? Isn't the banning of internal travel, indeed, the banning of movement on the streets part of the reason that China was able to lower the infection and death rate?

Closing access off from highly infected areas is either a good idea or it's not. If it's a good idea it should be done. Why should Europe, including Italy, get a pass?

Do I think that closing access from Europe means it won't continue to spread in the U.S.? Of course not, but why in hell would anyone INCREASE the problem???

Sorry; it makes no sense to me.

As for anyone thinking that Trump wanted to do it, well, I'd ask if that person is using recreational drugs. This is ruining his economy and stock market, an economy and stock market which put Europe's and everyone else's completely in the shade. Really, Trump derangement syndrome makes some of these leaders look like fools.

Before you respond, I didn't vote for him, I intensely dislike him as a person, and I don't think he was doing a great job on the coronavirus. Yesterday was better. He's a quick learner. Hopefully, he'll get it even more together. Who with any decency wouldn't want him to get this under control? This is people's lives, and also their livelihoods and the savings of a lifetime. I, for one, and most people, I think, don't take it lightly that under the best case scenario we might lose really large percentages of people over 60, or people who have any kind of health issues. Those are people we love, to whom we're deeply attached, and who would be sorely missed. If some people don't feel that way about the older and less healthy people in their lives, then I feel deeply sorry for them. They're missing so much.

I'm also amazed by the arrogance of thinking I've seen in some people on the internet that because one is on the "right" side of 60, this isn't important. There are 20 and 30 year olds in ICU with this. I wonder if people with this attitude would change their minds if they wind up in an ICU? And no, this isn't just like the flu.

The corona virus shows we live, more than even 20 or 30 years ago in a global village. A virus in Wuhan is few weeks later virulent on Iceland. So what the Italians, the Chinese and also the US do effects al others. Certainly the US represent a big part of the global village. So in such a situation pointing at eachother as Trump does, he even speaks about a ‘foreign virus’ is in some sense pointless.....

For the ban as such experts in viruses say ok this would prevent a little bit, but at what costs? And most of all this measure is not the ‘game changer’.

Where a nation state still can make the difference is measures for their territory. There we see no plan in the US....so this will probably cost lives. And in my impression the US is internal very vulnerable, 10% has no health assurance and lots of US people get not paid if they don’t work. These are with a virulent virus at least complicating factors.

ok I could say I don’t care it’s on the other side of the Ocean, but every life is one, and what happens in the US will in the end effect Europe, will effect my country, will effect me....

bicicleur
13-03-20, 09:09
The U.S. is supposed to not ban people from Europe coming to the U.S., but if Italy hadn't unilaterally closed its borders I'm absolutely certain people from Italy trying to get out would have been met by armed troops.

Seems a bit like don't do what I do, do what I say.

Italy closed it's borders, and then send all foreigners who were inside Italy home without any controll.
It spread the Corona inside Europe even more.
Mind you, they made the same mistake here in Brussels.
2 planes from Milan arrived in Brussels that day and none of the passengers were checked - unlike passengers coming from China when Corona had started there.

Your claim about armed troops is grotesk.

Tomenable
13-03-20, 11:51
Italian data as of yesterday:

I think Italy is being affected by some mutated more dangerous strain of the virus, because I don't see any other explanation why over 50% of all infected have to be hospitalized, almost 1/10 in intensive care and mortality rate almost 7% (in some other countries only 10% require hospitalization - with ca. 7000 in hospitals, there should be ca. 70,000 cases in total in Italy, not 13,000):

=====

Total cases: 15,113

Active cases: 12,839
Of which in hospitals: 6,650
Of which in intensive care: 1,153

=====

Closed cases:

Recovered: 1,258
Deaths: 1,016
Mortality: 6,72%

=====

I've read that the virus has already mutated, there are at least a few strains including "type S" (original) and "type L" (more contagious and causing stronger symptoms) and probably a few more unnamed so far (I suspect some really bad strain must be common in Italy considering their situation).

If you get immunity to one strain it doesn't guarantee immunity to another strain. In China there were few cases of people who recovered from "S" getting sick with "L" once again (these two types were identified by Chinese geneticists, so this "L" mutation took place already back in China).

See the video:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYPZHA-UjUY

Yetos
13-03-20, 11:52
coronavirus

https://www.idlehearts.com/images/you-cant-hide-behind-your-finger.jpg


to all those who hide the truth,
they know who are they,
we know who are they,

a hurray to Italy and Iran, for bravery,
for giving true data,
no matter how painfull it is.