G25 G25 Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe Iron Age Calculator

I made a calculator because of the debates I had about the Balkan continuity and it turns out, it seems to work fairly well on the usual average coordinates for the peple of Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe from my perspective.

Give it a shot:
https://vahaduo.github.io/vahaduo/

SOURCE


Some results:


https://ibb.co/hLxK2Dj

Its not really useful for people with no European ancestry, and not that ideal for people from the very North West and North East.

Note that Celtic and Balkan IA West and Pannonian do somewhat overlap, they are part of a continuum. But it doesn't hurt if you consider it.

Its best suited for people from Central and South Eastern Europe imho.

Your discrepancy between Greek_Macedonia and Albanian which are almost the same population genetically shows that you're nothing but a court jester.

Davidski might have his biases, but I'll stick to his models over yours any day.

Also, Germans are 20% West Balkan, but Albanians 6%. Please, find another hobby.

enter_tain said:

Also, Germans are 20% West Balkan, but Albanians 6%. Please, find another hobby.

Click to expand...

West Balkan is related to Celtic, that's why. Its the ancestry of the MBA-EIA Tumulus culture and Urnfield groups. If you check them on a PCA, they just score fairly Western, which is why they approach more Southern Celtic ancestry, which Germans have. If you check Croatians and Slovenians, or Hungarians, they all score like that.
The Central and Eastern Balkan were respectively closer to each other. You need to know the background of this groups before judging that way.

But of course, its just an experiment and not to be taken all too serious. But I guess the main problem is not that my concept is that flawed, but that we lack some crucial (Central and Eastern Balkan in particular) samples. From the Central Balkan we have zero and from the Eastern Balkan only two proxies. Therefore there can't be an optimal model at this point.

Riverman said:

I made a calculator because of the debates I had about the Balkan continuity and it turns out, it seems to work fairly well on the usual average coordinates for the peple of Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe from my perspective.

Give it a shot:
https://vahaduo.github.io/vahaduo/

SOURCE

Code:

Yoruba,-0.6300625,0.0625011,0.022113,0.0167079,0.0005035,0.0124741,-0.044417,0.0477673,-0.0488813,0.0327694,0.0046205,0.0007904,0.0230561,0.0009509,0.0125232,-0.0096067,0.0070763,0.0004491,0.006022,-0.00299,0.0015542,0.0023156,-0.0017592,-0.0004711,-0.0004246
North_and_East_Asian:Dai,0.0156507,-0.438709,-0.046763,-0.0609662,0.1201762,0.0622622,0.00047,-0.0073845,-0.0189698,-0.013121,0.0109208,0.0020232,-0.000446,-0.006193,0.0012895,0.0045742,0.0061282,-0.0009502,-0.0043368,-0.011662,0.0121972,0.0090268,0.0149438,0.002892,0.007095
North_and_East_Asian:Mongolian,0.0516758,-0.3278128,0.0638842,-0.0265506,-0.045916,-0.0297298,0.014242,0.0177686,-0.0009406,0.008966,-0.0321206,-0.0031172,-0.000327,-0.0007432,0.0032574,0.0006894,-0.0033898,0.0001014,0.0042236,0.0090292,-0.021537,-0.0095706,-0.0186106,0.0002652,0.0007422
North_and_East_Asian:RUS_Devils_Gate_Cave_N,0.0162197,-0.4440402,0.0722185,-0.0511148,-0.0373912,-0.0395328,0.0034075,0.0084802,0.0064935,0.019408,-0.048595,-0.004833,-0.0030848,0.0086702,-0.0096025,-0.0133915,-0.0007825,0.0089,0.0174408,0.0100362,0.008828,-0.027729,-0.0174702,-0.00244,-0.0145795
Germanic_Celtic:DEU_MA,0.1223596,0.1303939,0.061169,0.048773,0.039792,0.0199408,0.010975,0.0052151,0.0013295,-0.0024966,-0.003735,0.001109,-0.0091576,-0.0038398,0.0161643,-0.0008352,-0.0133511,0.0032684,0.0041354,0.0040271,0.0060019,0.0037342,-0.0007273,0.011146,-0.0004429
Germanic_Celtic:DEU_MA_ACD_Baiuvaric,0.12088,0.1104896,0.043897,0.019703,0.0262202,0.0089246,0.0033842,0.0021228,0.004827,0.00831,0.0001624,0.0023378,-0.0028544,0.0024222,0.0040718,0.0017502,-0.0038594,0.0016218,0.0051534,0.0031764,-0.0002746,0.0003216,0.0078386,-0.0013256,-0.0024908
Germanic_Celtic:SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna,0.1271224,0.1253377,0.0747295,0.065161,0.0408658,0.0216214,0.0062957,0.010117,0.0020776,-0.0121906,-0.0015214,0.003652,-0.0001408,-0.0004635,0.0130149,0.0058408,-0.0046871,0.0030273,0.003685,0.0039164,0.0028765,0.0033256,0.0007914,0.0075659,-0.0002459
Germanic_Celtic:SWE_IA,0.122929,0.123895,0.067127,0.058463,0.041238,0.02008,0.005875,0.007615,0.002863,-0.009659,0.003735,0.001948,-0.006987,0.003853,0.020358,-0.006762,-0.015385,0.006461,0.009427,0.00025,0.00025,0.002844,0.002465,0.011447,0.000359
Germanic_Celtic:FRA_Alsace_IA1,0.1282407,0.146913,0.0529223,0.026486,0.0404177,0.0066937,-0.0080687,0.003615,0.0145213,0.0109343,0.002977,0.016885,-0.014866,-0.0101843,0.0194533,0.0063197,0.0005217,0.006081,0.0025977,0.004377,-0.002953,-0.0021847,-0.009285,-0.0024903,-0.003153
Germanic_Celtic:FRA_Alsace_IA2,0.1271973,0.1457285,0.050534,0.0399712,0.0363142,0.01262,0.0012338,0.005942,0.0035282,0.0127568,-0.0005275,-0.0019857,-0.00944,-0.0048855,0.0118755,0.0072262,-0.0087685,0.0012035,0.0089558,-0.00025,-0.005147,0.0080682,0.003112,-0.0122605,0.002904
Germanic_Celtic:CZE_Hallstatt_Bylany,0.12862,0.1376045,0.0705215,0.034238,0.0481625,0.004044,0.0019975,0.001385,0.018509,0.019955,-0.012017,-0.0052455,-0.00944,0.0006195,0.0095685,-0.0013255,-0.005998,0.001774,0.0048395,0.0080665,0.001061,0.0019785,-0.0006165,-0.005422,-0.0034725
Slavic:CZE_Early_Slav,0.12862,0.129988,0.068259,0.046835,0.02739,0.013387,0.007285,0.014076,-0.001841,-0.018406,-0.000812,-0.004346,0.003717,0.007156,-0.010993,-0.003182,0.011604,-0.002027,-0.002388,-0.004752,0.005615,0.000618,0.001725,-0.000964,-0.006706
Slavic:DEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA,0.1271973,0.1264338,0.0753298,0.072029,0.0472395,0.0219628,0.0112807,0.011134,0.0018918,-0.0244652,-0.0022735,-0.0081302,0.0150892,0.0187855,-0.011061,0.0081875,0.011278,-0.000792,0.0047768,0.0055652,-0.0065198,-0.0046368,0.0053922,-0.0021688,0.002455
Slavic:HUN_Avar_Szolad:Av2,0.134311,0.126941,0.081458,0.065569,0.035391,0.033746,0.00987,0.005769,0.004704,-0.02278,-0.002436,-0.005395,0.01219,0.020643,-0.015201,-0.003845,0.005867,0.004561,0.008673,5e-04,0.001497,-0.00272,0.013804,-0.007109,0.002634
Italic_Etruscan_IA:ITA_Rome_Latini_IA,0.127482,0.147252,0.033187,-0.016796,0.044008,-0.008646,-0.00376,-0.004846,0.026588,0.052666,-0.002761,0.015137,-0.036719,-0.008533,-0.009093,0.013392,0.016037,-0.004687,0.003897,0.004127,0.00262,-0.00272,0.001972,-0.007712,-0.008742
Italic_Etruscan_IA:ITA_Etruscan,0.126913,0.153853,0.034695,-0.014212,0.0417,-0.005299,0.0024675,-0.002769,0.019839,0.0343515,-0.0023545,0.014237,-0.014792,-0.004335,-0.00475,-0.007823,-0.0028035,0.0052575,0.011564,-0.001188,-0.002558,0.003771,-6.15e-05,-0.0004215,-0.002694
Italic_Etruscan_IA:ITA_Prenestini_tribe_IA,0.12862,0.145221,0.04714,0.005491,0.046162,0.00251,-0.00282,0.002769,0.021475,0.039727,-0.002923,0.012289,-0.021407,-0.016239,0.012622,0.000398,-0.003129,0.003421,0.00176,-0.001251,0.004492,0.003586,-0.00456,-0.003976,0.000239
Levante:Levant_LBN_Roman,0.0887823,0.1447132,-0.0554368,-0.085595,-0.0116175,-0.0282378,-0.0074612,-0.0076152,0.0076698,0.0121642,0.0031262,-0.01139,0.0130822,-0.0017893,-0.0105862,0.0093475,0.002673,-0.0006652,0.0025138,0.0022512,0.000655,0.0059042,-0.0035742,0.0001205,-0.005299
Levante:Levant_LBN_MA,0.081573,0.148606,-0.0520427,-0.0871023,-0.0125153,-0.028354,-0.0058753,-0.012384,0.0028637,0.0119667,0.0071447,-0.0082427,0.0106043,-0.001743,-0.008641,0.0041987,-0.000478,-0.0027027,0.0012153,-0.007712,0.000416,0.005482,-0.006286,0.0078323,0.0020753
Berber_Tunisia_Chen,-0.0279499,0.1390711,-0.0080871,-0.0764792,0.0277316,-0.0352023,-0.0313867,0.0052818,0.0684246,0.0297957,0.0040057,-0.0043877,0.0196314,-0.0161248,0.0140923,-0.0169052,0.0001521,-0.0232896,-0.0467247,0.0078579,-0.0168314,-0.0404275,0.0281347,-0.0044517,0.0063666
TUR_Ottoman,0.079107,-0.0741335,0.01829,-0.0075905,-0.043085,-0.0133865,0.0029375,0.000808,-0.010124,-0.012119,-0.00885,-0.0063695,-0.0057235,-0.0088075,0.0052255,0,0.007758,0.000887,-0.0018855,-0.000375,-0.0089845,-0.0004325,-0.0096135,-0.001747,0.0003595
Imperial_Roman_mixed:ITA_Rome_Imperial,0.1039821,0.1495156,-0.0235307,-0.0574065,0.0045265,-0.0204055,-0.0011946,-0.0051488,0.0006604,0.0196549,0.0034575,0.0025539,-0.0040602,-0.0014737,-0.0081715,-0.0014474,0.0035992,0.000454,0.0012178,-0.0032854,-0.0025579,0.0020454,-0.0006985,-0.0004845,0.0004141
Imperial_Roman_mixed:DEU_Roman,0.117238,0.151314,0.045254,0.000323,0.052317,0.001952,0.0047,-0.006,0.01943,0.028064,-0.002436,0.004946,-0.017393,-0.013212,-0.004614,0.00411,0.009388,0.006334,-0.000377,5e-04,0.000624,0.001484,-0.000616,-0.00735,-0.001796
Imperial_Roman_mixed:ITA_Collegno_MA_o1,0.1069937,0.1486057,-0.0248897,-0.0551253,0.0057443,-0.016083,-0.0018017,-0.003769,0.0008863,0.0154293,0.007091,0.0059443,-0.008325,0.000642,-0.0068313,-0.0010607,0.008388,-0.001098,0.004483,0.0007087,-0.001539,0.002267,0.0031223,0.0018077,0.0015967
Imperial_Roman_mixed:England_Roman_Near_Eastern_o,0.05122,0.156392,-0.050911,-0.102068,-0.003077,-0.044065,-0.012926,-0.007154,0.031906,0.000364,0.004384,-0.015436,0.027354,0.003853,-0.003936,0.005304,-0.000782,-0.001014,-0.005908,0.010505,0.003494,-0.003833,-0.001109,0.006868,-0.010059
Pannonian_IA:HUN_LBA,0.1295687,0.1465745,0.0582652,0.0313848,0.0514455,0.0066005,0.0054835,0.0035767,0.0153053,0.0163103,-0.0030583,-0.0003993,-0.0022547,0.0008715,-0.0022168,0.0081542,0.008714,0.0011192,0.0031423,0.0030222,-0.0006862,0.0045958,-0.0040467,-0.0092982,-0.0029538
Pannonian_IA:HUN_LBA_Halva,0.133173,0.136081,0.065242,0.049096,0.048932,0.013387,0.003055,0.006231,0.009408,0.008018,-0.003085,-0.005245,0.000446,0.006193,-0.006922,0.016839,0.024773,-0.004054,-0.007165,0.013381,0.005241,0.001237,0.000863,-0.012893,-0.00934
Pannonian_IA:SVK_IA_Vekerzug,0.1261158,0.1444084,0.0455813,0.0172697,0.0380583,0.0013944,0.0021307,0.0050921,0.0091492,0.0126107,-0.0009743,0.0014787,-0.0053419,0.0038717,-0.0042707,-0.0026076,0.0017211,0.0019679,0.0057317,-0.0012756,-0.0020964,0.0015991,0.0019802,-0.0069647,-0.0002235
Pannonian_IA:HUN_EIA_Prescythian_Mezocsat,0.1274818,0.143596,0.0500816,0.0178942,0.042777,0.0041274,0.0039012,0.0025386,0.0114126,0.0141782,0.0027608,0.003417,-0.0051734,0.00011,-0.0040172,0.0001326,-0.0016688,0.0010642,0.0028658,-0.0011256,-0.0023708,0.001385,-0.0027116,-0.0100734,-0.0007424
Balkan_IA_East:BGR_IA,0.126344,0.157407,0.007165,-0.051034,0.029852,-0.02259,0.00423,-0.001385,0.007772,0.032074,-0.001461,0.005695,-0.013974,-0.003028,-0.015065,-0.001458,0.01369,0.006968,0.006285,-0.014757,-0.006239,0.004699,-0.007888,0.003494,-0.008861
Balkan_IA_East:GRC_Mycenaean,0.107847,0.1563915,-0.008108,-0.0646808,0.0216962,-0.0271222,-0.0005288,-0.0021345,0.00542,0.047336,0.005521,0.0169352,-0.012785,-0.0006195,-0.0163882,-0.0098118,0.0210245,0.0036108,0.0123188,-0.0039705,-0.0058648,0.0001858,-0.0065935,0.0011448,-0.0007185
Balkan_IA_West:ITA_Daunian,0.1242297,0.161034,0.0205801,-0.0283317,0.0360066,-0.0113151,0.0042301,-0.0021427,0.0163329,0.0418103,-0.0042919,0.0088209,-0.0159491,-0.0070386,-0.012234,0.0034283,0.0074691,-0.002751,0.0005924,0.0026977,0.0016933,0.0048224,0.0031339,0.0035631,-0.0040371
Balkan_IA_West:HRV_EIA,0.1276082,0.1472518,0.0320973,-0.0011843,0.0354596,-0.0009297,0.0016711,0.002359,0.0107942,0.0275177,-0.0005954,0.008992,-0.0170796,-0.0077679,-0.0019151,-0.0021068,0.003868,0.0031109,0.0071369,-0.0045022,-0.0027036,0.0016899,0.0006983,5.34e-05,-0.0025813
Balkan_IA_West:HRV_IA,0.132035,0.151314,0.033941,-0.01615,0.024928,-0.005857,-0.006345,0.007154,0.003681,0.028976,0.001786,0.01169,-0.02111,-0.001376,-0.005972,-0.008486,-0.006519,0.004941,0.005531,-0.014257,-0.001872,0.00507,0.001479,0.00253,0.003353
Iberia:Iberia_East_IA,0.1244941,0.1489018,0.0564739,0.0021802,0.0598572,-0.0031725,-0.0036426,0.0044711,0.0299882,0.0468802,-0.0047092,0.0111088,-0.0233585,-0.0145191,0.0078549,0.0056351,0.0067799,0.0016153,0.0038024,-0.0010318,0.0055682,-9.26e-05,-0.007364,-0.0123961,-0.0011226
Iberia:Iberia_IA,0.124067,0.135065,0.065996,0.007752,0.053241,-0.004183,-0.0094,0.004846,0.029247,0.056858,-0.00747,0.012289,-0.015312,-0.01156,0.011943,0.014717,0.026859,0.005574,0.000126,-0.00025,-0.002246,0.002844,-0.006902,-0.026751,-0.004191
Iberia:Iberia_North_IA,0.125205,0.1431895,0.065053,0.0114665,0.058011,0.003347,-0.0034075,0.0045,0.026077,0.034989,-0.002192,0.0088425,-0.0169475,-0.0085325,0.0107215,6.65e-05,-0.008279,0.0008865,-0.000126,-0.00075,0.0082355,0.0023495,-0.0070865,-0.0118085,-0.0061075
Finno-Ugrian:Finnish:FIN_Levanluhta_IA,0.1044325,-0.036051,0.1057825,0.0792965,-0.0122328,0.008576,0.006169,0.0141918,0.0037328,-0.0303422,0.033046,-0.0083175,0.019772,-0.0182695,-0.0065485,-0.0034805,-3.28e-05,-0.0031672,-0.0073848,0.0008442,0.016658,-0.0018547,-0.0016945,0.004097,0.0008382

Some results:

https://ibb.co/hLxK2Dj

Its not really useful for people with no European ancestry, and not that ideal for people from the very North West and North East.

Note that Celtic and Balkan IA West and Pannonian do somewhat overlap, they are part of a continuum. But it doesn't hurt if you consider it.

Its best suited for people from Central and South Eastern Europe imho.

Click to expand...

I have a problem with it in what you call Imperial_Roman_mix. Is that a distinct population that migrated to the Balkan area during the Imperial Roman era? You might have a lot of overlap between that population and Balkan_IA_East.

---

---

Distance to: Torzio_scaled
0.03005429 Balkan_IA_West:HRV_EIA
0.03371179 Balkan_IA_West:HRV_IA
0.03625041 Pannonian_IA:SVK_IA_Vekerzug
0.03688835 Italic_Etruscan_IA:ITA_Etruscan
0.04060737 Pannonian_IA:HUN_EIA_Prescythian_Mezocsat
0.04959731 Imperial_Roman_mixedEU_Roman
0.05144603 Italic_Etruscan_IA:ITA_Prenestini_tribe_IA
0.05521061 Germanic_CelticEU_MA_ACD_Baiuvaric
0.05576980 Balkan_IA_West:ITA_Daunian
0.05947751 Germanic_Celtic:FRA_Alsace_IA2
0.06004125 Germanic_Celtic:FRA_Alsace_IA1
0.06138000 Pannonian_IA:HUN_LBA
0.06264363 Iberia:Iberia_North_IA
0.06678416 Germanic_Celtic:CZE_Hallstatt_Bylany
0.06871768 Iberia:Iberia_East_IA
0.07145475 Balkan_IA_East:BGR_IA
0.07296134 Italic_Etruscan_IA:ITA_Rome_Latini_IA
0.07618174 Germanic_CelticEU_MA
0.08588754 Slavic:CZE_Early_Slav
0.08845995 Germanic_Celtic:SWE_IA
0.09009225 Iberia:Iberia_IA
0.09018891 Imperial_Roman_mixed:ITA_Collegno_MA_o1
0.09098067 Imperial_Roman_mixed:ITA_Rome_Imperial
0.09173671 Pannonian_IA:HUN_LBA_Halva
0.09638044 Balkan_IA_East:GRC_Mycenaean





Target: Torzio_scaled
Distance: 1.7029% / 0.01702890 | ADC: 0.25x RC
29.0 Balkan_IA_West
23.4 Italic_Etruscan_IA
22.4 Germanic_Celtic
13.0 Pannonian_IA
12.2 Levante

Riverman said:

West Balkan is related to Celtic, that's why. Its the ancestry of the MBA-EIA Tumulus culture and Urnfield groups. If you check them on a PCA, they just score fairly Western, which is why they approach more Southern Celtic ancestry, which Germans have. If you check Croatians and Slovenians, or Hungarians, they all score like that.
The Central and Eastern Balkan were respectively closer to each other. You need to know the background of this groups before judging that way.

But of course, its just an experiment and not to be taken all too serious. But I guess the main problem is not that my concept is that flawed, but that we lack some crucial (Central and Eastern Balkan in particular) samples. From the Central Balkan we have zero and from the Eastern Balkan only two proxies. Therefore there can't be an optimal model at this point.

Click to expand...

Mate, that's not "West Balkan", when a West Balkan nation is 6% and Germans are like 20. Call it something else, because that makes absolutely no sense.

enter_tain said:

Mate, that's not "West Balkan", when a West Balkan nation is 6% and Germans are like 20. Call it something else, because that makes absolutely no sense.

Click to expand...

That's the Iron Age reference, not moderns. The Middle Danubian group was closely connected to areas like Austria, Bavaria and Czechia.
They heavily influenced and partly replaced earlier Pannonian and Balkan people.
Modern Hungarians, Slovenians and Croatians score it anyway.

Riverman said:

That's the Iron Age reference, not moderns. The Middle Danubian group was closely connected to areas like Austria, Bavaria and Czechia.
They heavily influenced and partly replaced earlier Pannonian and Balkan people.
Modern Hungarians, Slovenians and Croatians score it anyway.

Click to expand...

It doesn't matter if modern or ancient. It makes 0 ******* sense and it's a blatant attempt by you to push an agenda. Germans having 3 times more "West Balkan" than Albanians is utter nonsense.

enter_tain said:

It doesn't matter if modern or ancient. It makes 0 ******* sense and it's a blatant attempt by you to push an agenda. Germans having 3 times more "West Balkan" than Albanians is utter nonsense.

Click to expand...

These are the samples we have, as soon as we get
Viminacium Balkan IA = Central Balkan
Kapitan Andreevo et al = Eastern Balkan

The West Balkan for me is now what we got from HRV_IA, Daunians & Co, and that's just how it was. These people were genetically more similar to Northern Italians, Western Hungarians and Southern Germans-Austrians at that time, because of this massive MBA Tumulus culture push primarily.
A Neolithic calculator would make Germans more "Russian" too if you like. I wrote specifically Iron Age/pre-La Tene. If I would use La Tene, the Germanic-Celtic would increase for much of the West Balkan...

ph2ter made similarity maps for the components on Anthrogenica, works out fine for most components, Pannonian LBA-EIA was a quite specific profile which didn't have a much lasting impact anywhere in an unmixed form, similar to its brother in the Tollense samples:

ph2ter said:

the results of this calc on the map:

Click to expand...

https://anthrogenica.com/showthread...Age-Calculator&p=830249&viewfull=1#post830249

Germanic and Slavic make sense (although Balkans should have some Germanic ancestry from Goths, at least 5-15%). West Balkan and East Balkan make no sense at all. Why are Sardinians so high in "East Balkan"? Germans and Belgians have more "West Balkan" than Albanians.

You designed a calculator to design a division between "West Balkan" and "East Balkan" and ended up designing a calculator that's only accurate for Germanic and Slavic. Like it's been mentioned multiple times, that Bulgarian IA or whatever is some weird outlier that has little to do with modern populations. It shouldn't be used as a reference point.

Maciamo commented on this years ago

Maciamo said:

Bulgaria has long been at the receiving end of migrations from the Eurasian Steppe, and that occasionally included people from the Altai and Mongolia, but also from various parts of Siberia (e.g. the Uralic Magyars).

What is more surprising in that Bulgaria IA sample with 42% of Siberian is the rest of the admixtures.

First of all, that sample completely lacks NE European (i.e. also Indo-European) admixture. What kind of population in Europe, Central Asia or the northern Middle East still lacked any NE European admixture (I mean not even 0.1%) around 800 BCE? Even Chalcolithic and EBA Anatolians and Caucasians had clearly noticeable levels of NE European admixture.

Then, other LBA and A Bulgarian samples have no SW Asian, except one that has 1.9%. But this one has 10.2%! I suppose there is no need to say that Southwest Asia isn't one the way between Mongolia and Bulgaria, and that no population in the middle has any considerable SW Asian admixture. If we exclude the 42% NE Asian from the genome, a few generations ago the non-Mongoloid ancestors of that person could have carried nearly 20% of SW Asian, 15% of Baloch/Gedrosian and 65% of Mediterranean. The problem is that there isn't any population with that kind of admixture. The closest would be North Africans (esp. Tunisians), but with East African instead of Baloch. Maybe we should assume that the Baloch came together with the Siberian, as the total is close to 50%.

I looked up the HarappaWorld K=16 admixture for worldwide populations (if you click on the admixture's name the listing get sorted by frequency) and the closest to pure Siberian without NE Asian are the Nganasans (89%), who live in the Krasnoyarsk Krai in Central Siberia. They do have a bit of Baloch and Beringian. Actually let's assume that this sample is a first generation hybrid. One parent would have contributed 43.6 Siberian, 6% Baloch and 0.4% Beringian, and the other parent 37.6% Mediterranean, 10.2% SW Asian and 2.2% Baloch.

In that case the second parent would be much closer to a pure European Neolithic farmer with 20% of SW Asian admixture, so more like a Levantine farmer, but with only a little Baloch/Gedrosian and no NE_Euro admixture at all. How is that possible in Iron Age Bulgaria is a mystery to me. I can understand that some Siberian tribe migrate toward the Balkans from time to time. Here considering that the individual is female and carries mt-haplogroup HV, the mother would have been the one of Middle Eastern and the father of Siberian origin. That makes sense. The invader are typically men who take local brides. In that case the local bride would have either recently arrived from the South Levant or lived in a sort of time warp since the Late Neolithic, immune to the 3400 years of Indo-European presence in the Balkans by 800 BCE.

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Riverman said:

ph2ter made similarity maps for the components on Anthrogenica, works out fine for most components, Pannonian LBA-EIA was a quite specific profile which didn't have a much lasting impact anywhere in an unmixed form, similar to its brother in the Tollense samples:


https://anthrogenica.com/showthread...Age-Calculator&p=830249&viewfull=1#post830249

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In my mind those ph2ter maps confirm the suspicions I expressed to you over at anthrogenica. I hope you have enough intellectual empathy to understand my pov.

Edit: For the others that did not follow our discussions there.
1. You are employing ghost populations made of averages. Populations that might not have existed.
2. You are picking and choosing which samples represent what to fit the hypothesis, rather than test it.
a)Slavic average you have looks Baltic
b)West Balkan average looks anything but West Balkans (in fact my criticism was that you arrived at this conclusion excluding much better fitting samples, while at the same time relying on anachronism(LBA Panonians, IA Croatians... and synthetic averaging)
c)Your hypothesis about E-V13 is the basis the synthesizing and averaging of the East Balkan components, so the model would naturally churn out Albanians as overwhelmingly East Balkan.

My hope is this is just confirmation bias and nothing sinister, but as you read from my edit of the comment over at Anthro, when I tried to replicate your model without some of the flaws it fell apart.

Try this:
Make it a BA+IA model, so that way you can keep the LBA Panonians, while at the same time satisfy the MBA-LBA Croatians. Use individual samples so we are not dealing in synthetic populations that might not have existed and test your hypothesis?

Its either that, or I think once the Southern Arch paper comes out and you compare your averages to actual representative samples, some of which you named but quite a few you did not, your model might fall apart.

enter_tain said:

Germanic and Slavic make sense (although Balkans should have some Germanic ancestry from Goths, at least 5-15%). West Balkan and East Balkan make no sense at all. Why are Sardinians so high in "East Balkan"?

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For the same reason Arabs get Imperial_Roman_mixed, not because they are ideal for that, but the model wasn't made for them, so they pick what's closest. East Balkan is best proxy for a EEF heavy population with low WHG/steppe/Iranian. That's why they pick. Imperial Roman is the only component with actual higher Near Eastern ancestry, that's why Arabs are red, while even the main European groups for that are not as red. They weren't meant by the model, that's why I explicitly said Europeans, primarily Central-Eastern-South Eastern.

Germans and Belgians have more "West Balkan" than Albanians.

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The Southern Bell Beaker arc just covered them. That's the Tumulus culture which inhabited the West Balkans. They pushed other people out, like the WHG-rich Encrusted Pottery people or the Neolithic heavy Croatian Copper Age groups. They were no more.

You designed a calculator to design a division between "West Balkan" and "East Balkan" and ended up designing a calculator that's only accurate for Germanic and Slavic. Like it's been mentioned multiple times, that Bulgarian IA or whatever is some weird outlier that has little to do with modern populations. It shouldn't be used as a reference point.

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Considering how bad it is, its still remarkably accurate, because on average, who gets more West Balkan and who gets more East Balkan? The distribution makes at least some sense. But we'll see how it looks with actual Central and Eastern Balkan samples. Then the area will be more red, but still largely the same I guess, but we'll see, we'll see...

Archetype0ne said:

In my mind those ph2ter maps confirm the suspicions I expressed to you over at anthrogenica. I hope you have enough intellectual empathy to understand my pov.

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Yes. Like I said, Slavic-like ancestry could be brought into the Balkans numerous times by different people and some models might just pick older ancestries of that kind up (like from Channelled Ware and Scythians) and increase the Slavic disproportionally. But just to make that clear, it won't be that much, rather single digit numbers, but still it could make a difference. We don't know how the pre-Slavic inhabitants looked like exactly. We need many samples from different places to be sure. Viminacium and Timacum minus is a great start however.

a)Slavic average you have looks Baltic

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Same problem as with Sardinians and Arabs, I didn't make the calculator for that region, so they just get fully Slavic, because that's the closest offer I have in that model. Its however very accurate for Slavic-like ancestry. The question is rather what I wrote about, whether there were earlier such people with a lasting impact around.

c)Your hypothesis about E-V13 is the basis the synthesizing and averaging of the East Balkan components, so the model would naturally churn out Albanians as overwhelmingly East Balkan.

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Actually no, because my current best hypothesis is that E-V13 was first spread by Pannonian IA and then only secondary with Balkan IA East. It could be just Balkan IA, under some assumptions, but like I said before, this would cause troubles with the E-V13 spread and phylogeny. No unsolvable ones, so its possible, but its actually not my prefered model, which is an origin from G?va at the Upper Tisza with an earlier Lengyel group survival.

However, in the second stage, the main carrier in the Balkans after Channelled Ware broke up was Psenichevo-Basarabi, and they surely were more Eastern Balkan shifted in comparison to the assumed first stage. That's just an assumption based on the
- E-V13 modern distribution and phylogeny
- archaeological patterns observable for the region and time
- already available ancient DNA samples, which all concentrate North or East of the Danube, with little to nothing West and South of it, while the so far sampled Pannonian-Illyrian groups with little to no Channelled Ware/Basarabi influence all being dominated by R1b/J-L283.

Make it a BA+IA model, so that way you can keep the LBA Panonians, while at the same time satisfy the MBA-LBA Croatians.

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I tried to use only samples which might "got a life" and not "dead men walking" to put it that way. Some of the samples are clearly from groups which got just crushed. We'll see what exactly happened with Pannonian LBA over time.

Use individual samples so we are not dealing in synthetic populations that might not have existed and test your hypothesis?

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That's something I avoided deliberately, because I think group averages are more representative where available, but in some cases, like the BGR_IA, I needed to use single samples, because there just isn't more available. That's the limitation we got. I know it will be much better with actual samples from the tim and regions in questions, but hey, we might have to wait another year for these, who knows, and this is just a forum to debate and test things out. I'm not determining the identity or future results, don't put too much weight on such models.

bigsnake49 said:

I have a problem with it in what you call Imperial_Roman_mix. Is that a distinct population that migrated to the Balkan area during the Imperial Roman era? You might have a lot of overlap between that population and Balkan_IA_East.

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Indeed, "imperial_roman_mix" is a meaningless construct. At least examine the impact of the various populations from that time period. The study even organized them separately by haplotype, and did so themselves.

Jovialis said:

Indeed, "imperial_roman_mix" is a meaningless construct. At least examine the impact of the various populations from that time period. The study even organized them separately by haplotype, and did so themselves.

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C5 Eastern Mediterranean seems to have had an impact, which is similar to Aegean/Anatolia_BA. Clearly, this people were from the Greek Islands, or Western coast of Anatolia.

C4 was shown to have died away by late antiquity.

"imperial roman mix" is nothing more than a pseudo-science term invented by laymen.

@Riverman,

Try to recreate my model with G25, I'm interested to see how it would come out:

^^Are these samples even available on G25? I think we have may more aDNA processed than Davidski.