Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

Many Germans fled from Poland during the interwar period


That's not true.


They emigrated during several months long window between the signing of the Versailles Treaty and the moment when Polish administration took over. So they left the area during the time when it was still under German rule, but it was known that it was going to become Polish.


They did not leave under any pressure (except for their own disgust at the thought that they would live in a Polish-ruled state).


After 1921 Germans were no longer emigrating en masse. Those who left mostly left in 1918-1920.
 
Since we mentioned the topic of Upper Silesia, such a historical curiosity:

The flags of Ukraine and Upper Silesia have the same colours (blue and yellow) because an Upper Silesian duke (Vladislav of Opole) once ruled the Duchy of Halych-Volhynia in what is now Western Ukraine - and he created the yellow-blue coat of arms of Halych-Volhynia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladislaus_II_of_Opole
 
Tomenable said:
Many Germans fled from Poland during the interwar period


That's not true.


They emigrated during several months long window between the signing of the Versailles Treaty and the moment when Polish administration took over. So they left the area during the time when it was still under German rule, but it was known that it was going to become Polish.


They did not leave under any pressure (except for their own disgust at the thought that they would live in a Polish-ruled state).


After 1921 Germans were no longer emigrating en masse. Those who left mostly left in 1918-1920.
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Fact is they were fleeing the region after WWI. And it wasn't just "disgust", but also the fear of what's coming, like most of the time in such cases with an ethnic-political regime change. Anyway, that's the past.
 
Malaparte said:
As for the Ukraine, it was in fact the birthplace of the Russian people, the Principality of Kievan Rus, circa 1000. The Grand Duchy of Moscow was the leading successor state of the Kievan Rus.
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So you think there was a massive migration of Slavic people from Kiev to Moscow, and they are ancestors of modern Russians?

If Ukraine was inhabited by Russian people, then where did the current Ukrainians come from? Perhaps from Alpha Centauri?
 
Riverman said:
Fact is they were fleeing the region after WWI. And it wasn't just "disgust", but also the fear of what's coming
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The Germans ruled the region in question since the Partitions of Poland 1772-1795 until 1918.

They did oppress Polish people during that time, so they maybe had reasons to fear revenge.

But a more important thing than fear, was being "rootless" in the area. A significant part of the Germans living there, had no deep roots in the region but only settled there recently (or their parents/grandparents at best), as part of the efforts by the Ansiedlungskommission to Germanize the region.

Many Germans also were employed by the Prussian State, as officials etc. They were going to lose their jobs after the Polish takeover.
 
Tomenable said:
This current Russian propaganda reminds me a lot of Nazi propaganda from 1939 that Western Poland was allegedly predominantly German-inhabited. That was of course not confirmed by Polish official censuses (in 1921 and 1931) and it was also not confirmed by data coming from the community of Polish Germans itself. The German minority in Poland carried out self-censues (they counted themselves) and the results were similar as in official Polish census - Germans were about 10% of inhabitants in Western Poland, not a huge minority or a majority as Hitler claimed.

For example in Pomeranian Voivodeship (the so called disputed "Polish Corridor" to the Baltic Sea):

1926 German self-census - ethnic Germans were 12.5% of inhabitants (117.251 people)
1934 German self-census - ethnic Germans were 9.9% of inhabitants


1931 Polish official census - ethnic Germans were 10.1% of inhabitants (109.696 people)


And some less official Polish estimates for Pomeranian Voivodeship:


1920 Kazimierz Kierski estimate - 11.3% Germans (109.196 people)
1927 Zygmunt Stolinski estimate - 9.37% Germans (95.460 people)
1938 "Statystyka Polska" - 9.7% Germans (105.400 people)


As you can see German self-census numbers and Polish census numbers & estimates are similar.

Here is a detailed ethnic map of the "Polish Corridor" in the 1930s - https://i.imgur.com/FmY0QP8.jpg

While this is how Nazi maps showed the "Polish Corridor" in the 1930s - https://www.bpb.de/cache/images/0/298990_galerie_lightbox_box_1000x666.jpg?50DB4

And here a Non-Nazi map, based on real data - this map was used to draw the borders at Versailles in 1919 - https://i.imgur.com/vnNaPVH.png

=====

And in Poznan Voivodeship (also part of Western Poland, to the south of Pomeranian):

1931 Polish official census - 193.080 ethnic Germans (ca. 10% of the total population)
1934 German self-census - 208.986 ethnic Germans

=====

So as you can see Germans were about 10% in Western Poland - both according to Polish counts and their own self-counts.

But if you look at Nazi-made maps of ethnic distribution in Europe, they "painted" this area as at least 1/2 German-inhabited.

And Nazi maps also showed huge areas as German "Kulturboden" (inhabited by clear Polish majority, but culturally German).
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What the heck those thirties stuff what is the aim Tomenable... lines of ethnicity are relevant for whom? Putin? Or?
 
Riverman said:
The best solution to this conflict, but something probably both sides, but especially the Ukraine and West won't agree, would be a ceasefire and then a referendum of the disputed territories under strict international control. The people living there should decide to which state they want to belong and all conflict parties should accept that!
This would be the only humane and democratic solution, like so often in history, but so often being ignored by the "democratic powers", if it was in their interest to keep people in a state to which they don't want to belong for geopolitical reasons. On the other hand, if minorities are useful for being made use of politically, well, then its all about minorities and human rights.

But yes, that would be the best solution for this conflict, and both sides should have agreed to it long ago and they should have - both - made these areas free from their military and suppression, for the time of the referendum.

Unfortunately, such a peaceful and truly democratic solution in the name of the self-determination of a people won't be done, like so often in history before, leading to all this unnecessary bloodshed, with either Ukrainians in a state they don't want or minorities in a state they don't want to belong to.

Or probably all of them want to belong to a Western Ukrainian state! Well, they should vote for it, that would be only good way from my point of view, but unfortunately, it won't got that way.
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Sounds nice but passé. No pasaran.
 
Riverman said:
Obviously, the Western powers need to have an interest for a fair and legitimate plebiscite.
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You want plebiscites only when "The Prison of Nations" (that's how some people in Poland call Russia - Russia did not grant independence to its ethnic republics such as Sakha or Chechnya) invades weaker countries. But when there are spearatist movements in the West, you don't care.


Spanish police opened fire to Catalan separatists IIRC. All of Western European countries are multi-ethnic (in France - Basques, Bretons, Alsatians, etc.). Even Germany is like the former Yugoslavia, kind of a "Pan-Germanic State". Germans are not a single ethnicity IMO. Bavarian separatism maybe is no longer so strong, but it was a thing (and perhaps indeed Bavaria should secede from Germany and unite with Austria).


Why was there no plebiscite in Catalonia ??? Granted, Scotland was allowed to have one, but it now wants another.


How about Ulster, which is becoming increasingly Catholic and Anti-British ??? Hello, Sardinia and South Tyrol ???
 
The Flemish want to say goodbye to the Walloons as well, AFAIK.
 
That's a crucial debate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok9f5VuAe9c

If the Russians don't even have popular support in the majority Russian Eastern regions, outside of the Donbas, they have a general problem. Its a very important question and this reporter claims that people changed their attitude in the recent years, which is what I asked before, whether the attitude has changed in the East also in very recent times.
Let's hope for the negotiations and that Ukraine doesn't stick to Crimea and NATO membership, which is, quite obviously, the most important part for a potential compromise. Because if they don't give in on those two matters, we have to expect a much worse escalation, whether the Ukrainians win or lose, it will become devastating and globally dangerous.
 
I think the line of division is beetween former colonial oppressors vs. former colonies.


And guess what, the United States of America, Kenya, Ukraine, Poland were colonies in the past.


While Russia, Germany, Britain, Western Europe, were colonial oppressors in the past.


That's why there is this inability to think on the same wavelength when discussing this conflict.


Americans understand Eastern Europeans because they were also an oppressed colony.
 
Tomenable said:
You want plebiscites only...
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Germans are obviously one nation, but as we have seen, there can be breakaways for a variety of reasons in history.

Point is: A plebiscite which asks the people on the ground what they want is better than a war, a potentially big and truly devastating, dangerous war, which decides with most brutal and destructive force for them. Wouldn't you say? What's better about a potentially total war deciding such matters? If it came to the point of absolute violence and destruction, such a humane, lawful, fair and democratic decision making process is surely preferable.
I don't get how anybody could think otherwise, unless they think they can take people and lands by force which don't want to get grabbed.
 
People see America as a superpower, but forget that America's essence is different than other superpowers.

America began its existence as an oppresed colony, populated by people who escaped persecution in Europe.

That's why Americans understand Ukraine in this conflict much better than e.g. Germans or West Europeans.
 
Sure, Americans also have their sins and have their aggressive imperialist tendencies - nobody's perfect.


But, the founding values of America were different than those of other superpowers since the beginning.


So yeah, I'm sorry to say this, but there is moral high ground for one side of this conflict, and that's not the Pro-Russian side.

Sovereign states have the right to join whatever organizations they want. Russia can't dictate Ukraine to stay away from NATO.
 
Tomenable said:
People see America as a superpower, but forget that America's essence is different than other superpowers.

America began its existence as an oppresed colony, populated by people who escaped persecution in Europe.

That's why Americans understand Ukraine in this conflict much better than e.g. Germans or West Europeans.
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The Western powers made Ukraine their pawn. Ukrainians have of course their own agenda, but probably, if they would have known what comes about, they would have preferred a diplomatic solution and just proclaimed neutrality and a guarantee for the Russian minorities and military port and bases in Crimea. Not such a big deal for the freedom of the people of Ukraine. Germans still have their US military bases and being in the realm of the American hegemony, they are not that different, they rather have to pay more and send troops for wars too.
Probably if the Ukraine has a glorious victory and Russia crumbles, Putin would be gone without a further escalation, many people might say it was worth it. But if it doesn't end that quickly and easily for the Ukrainians, was it really worth it? Becoming part of the big game of Washington-London, when there could have been an easy, peaceful solution with which both the Russians and Ukrainians should have been able to live with? Without all that bloodshed.

Some just see this as a proxy war against Putin/Russia they want to see fall. They don't really care for the Ukrainians that much and even less for the Russians. Its just sad that they could be brought that far.
 
Riverman said:
That's a crucial debate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok9f5VuAe9c

If the Russians don't even have popular support in the majority Russian Eastern regions, outside of the Donbas, they have a general problem. Its a very important question and this reporter claims that people changed their attitude in the recent years, which is what I asked before, whether the attitude has changed in the East also in very recent times.
Let's hope for the negotiations and that Ukraine doesn't stick to Crimea and NATO membership, which is, quite obviously, the most important part for a potential compromise. Because if they don't give in on those two matters, we have to expect a much worse escalation, whether the Ukrainians win or lose, it will become devastating and globally dangerous.
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By a brutal attack on the Ukraine, which was not a roll over, and was followed by sharp sanctions, a cut of of Russia and even if Russia wins the inhabitants of Ukraine will be unwilling population. Putin never gets what he wants, But even worse he is in a position with a back against the wall.

The biographer of Putin described a scene in Putin's youth in St. Petersburg, his hobby was chasing rats...

There were hordes of rats in the front entryway. My friends and I used to chase them around with sticks. Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner. It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me.
Luckily, I was a little faster and I managed to slam the door shut in its nose. There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word cornered.
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Has Putin really learned a lesson? And what is his reaction when he is real put in a corner.....without leaving the scene in an upright position....

There is a Dutch saying:
a cornered cat makes weird jumps.....
 
Riverman said:
Germans are obviously one nation, but as we have seen, there can be breakaways for a variety of reasons in history.

Point is: A plebiscite which asks the people on the ground what they want is better than a war, a potentially big and truly devastating, dangerous war, which decides with most brutal and destructive force for them. Wouldn't you say? What's better about a potentially total war deciding such matters? If it came to the point of absolute violence and destruction, such a humane, lawful, fair and democratic decision making process is surely preferable.
I don't get how anybody could think otherwise, unless they think they can take people and lands by force which don't want to get grabbed.
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Such would be a possibility a week ago. After the brutal attack this is gone, is passé. Putin will never accept that. Because what will be the outcome after a brutal attack...? Even the ordinary Russians are resisting this war.
 
Good read:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lseih/2020/...ng-the-kremlins-version-of-ukrainian-history/

"Kievan Roots


Aside from its cultural proximity, Ukraine?s sentimental and spiritual appeal to many Russians derives from the fact that the Kievan Rus? ? a medieval state that came into existence in the 9th century and was centred around present-day Kiev ? is regarded as a joint ancestral homeland that laid the foundations for both modern Russia and Ukraine. But from the time of its foundation to its conquest by the Mongols in the 13th century, the Rus? was an increasingly fragmented federation of principalities. Its south-western territories, including Kiev, were conquered by Poland and Lithuania in the early 14th century. For roughly four hundred years, these territories, encompassing most of present-day Ukraine, were formally ruled by Poland-Lithuania, which left a deep cultural imprint on them. During these four centuries, the Orthodox East Slavic population of these lands gradually developed an identity distinct from that of the East Slavs remaining in the territories under Mongol and later Muscovite rule. A distinct Ukrainian language had already begun to emerge in the dying days of the Kievan Rus? (notwithstanding Vladimir Putin?s factually incorrect claim that ?the first linguistic differences [between Ukrainians and Russians] appeared only around the 16th century?). Following the incorporation of present-day Ukraine into Poland-Lithuania, the Ukrainian language evolved in relative isolation from the Russian language. At the same time, religious divisions developed within Eastern Orthodoxy. From the mid-15th to the late 17th centuries, the Orthodox Churches in Moscow and in Kiev developed as separate entities, initiating a division that eventually resurfaced in later schisms.


Most of what is now Ukraine was formally governed by Polish-Lithuanian nobility prior to the 18th century, but these lands were predominantly inhabited by Orthodox East Slavs who began to form semi-autonomous hosts of peasant warriors ? the Cossacks. Most of them felt a cultural affinity for Muscovite Russia but had no particular desire to be a part of the Muscovite state. In the 16th through 18th centuries, the Cossacks in present-day Ukraine began to form their own de facto statelets, the ?Zaporizhian Sich? and later the Cossack ?Hetmanate?. They staged a major uprising against their Polish overlords in 1648. Six years later, the expanding Tsardom of Russia signed a treaty of alliance with the Zaporizhian Cossacks. Notwithstanding this temporary turn towards Moscow, the Cossacks also explored other options: In the Treaty of Hadiach with Poland in 1658, they were on the verge of becoming a fully-fledged constituent member of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Had this treaty been successfully implemented, it would likely have tied the Cossacks? quasi-state firmly to its western neighbours for the foreseeable future.


The treaty failed, however, and the Cossacks remained divided in their loyalties. Internal disagreements about whether to side with Poland or Russia contributed to a series of civil wars among them in the late 1600s. In a foreshadowing of Ukraine?s present-day dilemma, the Cossacks shifted their allegiance more than once with the ultimate aim of gaining autonomy from both sides. (...)"
 
Russians claimed that Ukrainians have no history of their own and are part of Russia.


But apparently Ukrainians will have a history very soon, they are building it now:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5qudtunVds
 
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