How did I2a-Din get to the Balkans?

IMO, the only truly Germanic-balto-slavic people mix where the Bastanae

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bastarnae

Scholars hold divergent theories about the ethnicity of the Bastarnae. The mainstream view, following what appears to be the most authoritative view among ancient scholars, is that they were Germanic.^[19][20] However others hold that they were mixed Celtic/Germanic,^[21][22] or mixed Germanic/Sarmatian. A fringe theory is that they were Proto-Slavic.^[8]


Lands where from Pomerania to the black sea of moldovia

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Originally Posted by motzart

There are at least 2 papers that set out to prove I2a Din is paleolithic in the Balkans by explicitly proving that it is NOT slavic.

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If it's paleolithic, then "the grays" (Hg I) were in control of the whole central Europe before the arrival of Neolithic farmers and R1?
http://i58.tinypic.com/i5rm2b.jpg


Considering the current spread where I2 peaks on Dinaric Alps and Carpathian mountains, it looks like they had been controlling the whole Balkans and started running to mountains when various ethnic groups entered Europe from the direction of Dardanelles, Maritsa and Danube.

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Originally Posted by Ike

If it's paleolithic, then "the grays" (Hg I) were in control of the whole central Europe before the arrival of Neolithic farmers and R1?
http://i58.tinypic.com/i5rm2b.jpg


Considering the current spread where I2 peaks on Dinaric Alps and Carpathian mountains, it looks like they had been controlling the whole Balkans and started running to mountains when various ethnic groups entered Europe from the direction of Dardanelles, Maritsa and Danube.

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There is no doubt that Haplogroup I is Paleolithic and was spread all over Europe prior to the arrival of other HGs except maybe G/N... and C, in some areas, Sweden has to be all I though. I can see there being a lack of Paleolothic I in some south & western European areas.

The strange part is that the distribution and spread of the modern day dominant subclades of I are very downstream implying a late expansion from a previous bottleneck.

If our current hotspots of I are the result of paleolithic people simply being where they have always been the variance in subclades should be different, IJ* and I* is found in Northern Iran and the Caucauses implying that I or IJ spread in to Europe through the Caucauses rather than the Balkans. In the Balkans we see a lot of I but it is all far downstream clades of I1 and I2a1.

I think that our current distribution of I clades has to be a result of later post-indo European expansion with Germanic tribes. Everywhere we see Germanic languages spoken we find I DNA, the inverse is not true though as we see lots of I in non Germanic speaking areas. The fact that there are no Germanic language speaking areas without a significant amount of I Y DNA I think gives support to the fact that the Germanic languages are heavily influenced by the original non-indo european language of the I HGs, this fits with the Germanic language substrate hypothesis which states that 1/3 of the words in the German language do not have Indo-European origins.

I think it is time to recapitulate the facts:

1. The highest I2a-Din frequency has been measured by Battaglia et al. (2008) for "Bosnian Croats" at 73.3 %. While the text does not give details on where the samples were taken, the enclosed map suggests Mostar as sampling region.
2. The next highest frequency is reported for the island of Hvar by Barac et al. (2003) at 65.9 %.
3. Pericic et al. (2005) report Herzegovina at 63.8 %. This relates to combined sampling from Mostar and Siroki Brijeg. On the assumption that the frequency in Mostar is around 70%, as suggested by the Battaglia result, we can infer a frequency around 55% in Siroki Brijeg. Frequencies above 50% have furthermore been reported from Zenica in central Bosnia (52.2%, Pericic et al.), and the islands of Brac (55.1 %) and Korcula (53.7 %).
4. Next comes "Bosniacs", reported by Battaglia et al. at 45.3% - the enclosed map suggests Sarajevo as sampling location. Western Montenegro may have similar frequencies, as is discussed here http://www.eupedia.com/forum/threads...montenegro-dna.
5. Frequencies around 30% have been reported for Bosnian Serbs (34.6 %, Battaglia, the enclosed map suggests sampling around Tuzla), mainland Croatia (Battaglia 33.7%, Pericic after deeper genotyping of Barac's data 32.2%), Belgrade (29.2%, Pericic), Skopje (29.1%, Pericic), Krk (28.4%, Barac), and Ossijek Croats (27.6%, Battaglia). For the Croatian mainland, Barac mentions a higher I frequency in the Southern and Eastern parts.

That is a strikingly regular, almost concentric pattern with its "epicentre" close to Mostar, and frequencies above or close to 50% in an area that is approximately demarked by the cities of Herceg Novi, Sarajevo, Zenica and Split.

Now, let's take a look how the high I2a-Din distribution has been affecting other relevant Y DNA haplogroups:

• E-M78 has obviously been largely unaffected by the I2a Din concentration. Generally regarded as Albanian marker on the Balkans, the E-M78 frequency peaks at 45.6% among Kosovo Albanians (Perisic) and 36% among FYROM-Albanians (Battaglia). (South-)Westward from there, it declines steadily from a 27% average (with a westwards decline) in Montenegro, 20.4% in Belgrade (Pericic), 19.8% in Tuzla (Battaglia), 13.1% in Sarajevo (Battaglia), 10.1% in Zenica (Pericic), some 9% around Mostar (Battaglia, Pericic) to 5.6% on the Crotian mainland (Pericic, Barac). The Croatian islands of Brac, Hvar and Korcula have a somewhat lower frequency of around 4%, but that falls with measurement tolerance.
• I1-M253, the Germanic marker, is generally reported around 5% throughout the region, e.g. 6.2% in Montenegro, 5.3% in Belgrade, 5.7% (Battagla) and 5.1% (Pericic) with FYROM Albanians, 4.7% with Kosovo Albanians, 4.8% in Sarajevo. Unfortunately, Battagla and Pericic differ when it comes to Herzegovina and mainland Croatia. Battaglia has no I1 in Mostar, but 7.9% in Croatia (excluding Osijek), while Pericic has Herzegovina at 4.95% and mainland Croatia at just 2.8%. Both, however, point towards a drop in Northern & Central Bosnia (2.5% in Tuzla, 1.5% in Zenica). Rootsi et al. (2005) reports 5.3% for the Croatian mainland (312 samples) and 2.0% for Bosnians (91 samples). In summary, with the possible exception of Nothern & Central Bosnia, especially the Zenica area, the I2a Din frequency pattern does not seem to have influenced the rather constant I1 distribution across the area.
• R1a, generally regarded as Slavic marker, OTOH, falls pronouncedly from the 30-35% level as observed among Slovenes, the Croatian mainland and Macedonian Greeks. The R1a decline on the Balkans is generally correlated to more E-M78. Thus Kosovo and FYROM Albanians have the lowest frequencies of only some 2%. Belgrade's relatively low R1a share of 15,9% may as well still be related to a higher E-M78 share there..
  Hovewer, in the I2a-Din core area, the negative correlation between R1a and E-M78 breaks. Here, R1a frequencies range as low as 8.7% on Brac and 12% in Mostar (Battaglia) and the Herzegowina (Periric), respectively, while E-M78 frequencies are also quite low (though not as low as on the Croatian mainland).
• R1b, generally seen as IE or Celitc marker, is affected most. While around 15%-18% among Croatians, Albanians and Greek Macedonians, and 11% in Belgrade and Tuzla, it drops to below 4% in Sarajevo (3.6%), the Herzegovina (3.6%) and Mostar (2.2%), Korcula (1.5%), Zenica (1.4%), and Hvar (1.1%).

I wonder how the I2a-Din pattern could have been brought about by Slavic expansion. More specifically:

1. How could this expansion have strongly affected R1b, but left E-M78 and I1 untouched?
2. Why would this expansion have led to such a strong concentration of I2a Din around Mostar, while reducing, instead of simultaneously enhancing, R1a in the area?

To me, it rather looks like a traditional co-existence of I2a-Din (more north-westwards) and E-M78 (more south-eastwards) that has been overformed by successive incursions of R1b (Celts), I1 (Goths, Heruli etc.) and Slavs (R1a), with the Goths and Heruli mostly sparing out Central Bosnia, while Celts hardly and Slavs only to a limited extent made it to Herzegovina and the adjacent Dalmatian coast.

That would point to Palaeolithic continuity, if there weren't the TMRCA and diversity issues ported out by Sparkey. I don't feel qualified to comment on the former. As concerns I2a-Din diversity, however, both Rootsi and Periric report it to be high in Bosnia and Herzegovina, respectively. In fact, both suggest diversity to be highest there, within a wide area of high diversity that comprises most of central-eastern Europe from the Czech Republic towards Western Ukraine (Rootsi even has the high diversity area stretching as far to the North-East as Estonia, but his analysis includes other I2 clades aside from I2a-Din). The following picture shows I2a-Din frequency distributions (A/C) and the corresponding variance surfaces (B/D) that Periric determined from own sampling in the Balkans (A/B) and by incorporating results from other studies across Europe (C/D):
Attachment 6448
In short, after reviewing available research, I think that I2a-Din has already been present in the Dinaric Alps before the Slavic expansion, probably already before Roman times. The question is just whether it originated there, or expanded from further north, maybe the Carpathians around the sources of Dniester and Tisza, sometimes in the Neolithic, the bronze or the iron age. Judged by the diversity maps, an arrival by sea looks quite unlikely.

Sources:
http://www.draganprimorac.com/wp-con.../Battaglia.pdf
http://mbe.oxfordjournals.org/conten.../1964.full.pdf (Periric)
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1181996/ (Rootsi)

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Originally Posted by Ike

http://i58.tinypic.com/i5rm2b.jpg

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That map is wrong in so many ways.

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Originally Posted by FrankN

In short, after reviewing available research, I think that I2a-Din has already been present in the Dinaric Alps before the Slavic expansion, probably already before Roman times. The question is just whether it originated there, or expanded from further north, maybe the Carpathians around the sources of Dniester and Tisza, sometimes in the Neolithic, the bronze or the iron age. Judged by the diversity maps, an arrival by sea looks quite unlikely.

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Thanks for a great post FrankN, I really enjoy the thought you put in to it and read it thoroughly.

As to your quote about an origin point, I would like to refer to the Battaglia study's section on Variance. Greater variance in an area pointing to a clade being older there of course. I-M423 being older in Western Ukraine than Croatia/Bosnia where we find it in greater frequencies today. This matches my Goth theory.

http://i.imgur.com/cqtDMcm.jpg

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Originally Posted by FrankN

I wonder how the I2a-Din pattern could have been brought about by Slavic expansion. More specifically:

1. How could this expansion have strongly affected R1b, but left E-M78 and I1 untouched?
2. Why would this expansion have led to such a strong concentration of I2a Din around Mostar, while reducing, instead of simultaneously enhancing, R1a in the area?

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1. There are two different R1b populations in the Balkans.
The older one R1b-M269(xL51) which has nothing to do with Celts and its distribution pattern is almost identical with E-V13 (you wrote E-M78 which is ancestral to E-V13). They even correlate in Italy.
The second one is R1b-U152, which indeed could be connected to Celts, and as you correctly noticed it is significantly more frequent in Western Croatia and Slovenia. This haplogroup is more interesting because it is young enough to be one more argument for late arrival of I2a-Din. It clearly drops in frequency in the area where I2a-Din settled, and that can be easily explained with I2a-Din coming after R1b-U152.

These two mentioned R1b populations have to be analysed independently.

And at the end I don't quite understand your first question, because I see opposite - all these are affected: E-V13, R1b-M269(xL51) and R1b-U152. If you are asking why are E-V13 and R1b-M269(xL51) less frequent West of I2a-Din, it is because when I2a-Din came, E-V13 and R1b-M269(xL51) retreated towards Southeast.


2. Because I2a-Din and R1a were never 50:50 mix. I2a-Din was always more frequent as you go South (but was not present in the Balkans until Early Middle Ages). I see nothing amazing there.

I seems to have a mainly West Caucasus distribution as well; this is a common European haplogroup; it has quite elevated frequencies among the Andis and Kara Nogays. It would be interesting to discover some historical correlate for the presence of I in Kara Nogays but not Kuban Nogays and in Andis but not in most of the NE Caucasus
.

http://dienekes.blogspot.se/2011/09/...yev-et-al.html

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Originally Posted by gyms

I seems to have a mainly West Caucasus distribution as well; this is a common European haplogroup; it has quite elevated frequencies among the Andis and Kara Nogays. It would be interesting to discover some historical correlate for the presence of I in Kara Nogays but not Kuban Nogays and in Andis but not in most of the NE Caucasus
.

http://dienekes.blogspot.se/2011/09/...yev-et-al.html

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correct me if I am wrong, but didn't GHIJKLT all start around the east Caspian sea area? Were they all united and came from F haplogroup?

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Originally Posted by Shetop

The second one is R1b-U152, which indeed could be connected to Celts, and as you correctly noticed it is significantly more frequent in Western Croatia and Slovenia. This haplogroup is more interesting because it is young enough to be one more argument for late arrival of I2a-Din. It clearly drops in frequency in the area where I2a-Din settled, and that can be easily explained with I2a-Din coming after R1b-U152.

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But how can you know for sure that the whole area wasn't inhabited with I2a-Din, and when R1b-U152 came from the north, I2a-Din slowly retreated to the mountains?

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Originally Posted by Ike

But how can you know for sure that the whole area wasn't inhabited with I2a-Din, and when R1b-U152 came from the north, I2a-Din slowly retreated to the mountains?

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Most of the Balkans are mountains. Actually if you look more careful you will see that I2a-Din settled on what can be considered the best land. Dalmatian and Herzegovian fields, plains in Macedonia etc...

That is not true. My background is in Herzegovina. It is the least populated part of the Balkans together with Montenegro. It is the hottest place in Europe. I do not know why the Slavs came there from southern Polish and Ukraine :shocked:? There is a much better place for life .

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Originally Posted by doku

That is not true. My background is in Herzegovina. It is the least populated part of the Balkans together with Montenegro. It is the hottest place in Europe. I do not know why the Slavs came there from southern Polish and Ukraine :shocked:? There is a much better place for life .

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Then you may know better where do todays inhabitants of Sarajevo originate from?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History...ly_Ottoman_Era

Most of Herzegovina course. It is a favorite joke in Sarajevo :laughing:.
What you want say with a link :thinking:? I living in Sarajevo and I dont need any explanation to any wiki.

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Originally Posted by doku

Most of Herzegovina course. It is a favorite joke in Sarajevo :laughing:.
What you want say with a link :thinking:? I living in Sarajevo and I dont need any explanation to any wiki.

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It is for the other people on the forum...

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Originally Posted by Shetop

Most of the Balkans are mountains. Actually if you look more careful you will see that I2a-Din settled on what can be considered the best land. Dalmatian and Herzegovian fields, plains in Macedonia etc...

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I don't quite consider it 'the best land'. Maybe the best land to hide, or the best land where invaders will never go. Winters are cold as hell, and there are last remainings of primeval forests in Europe, which looks like this:
http://sutjeska.design21th.com/slike.../Perucica3.jpg


Why did Fourth and Fifth enemy offensives ended up with partisans surrounded in that exact area?

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Originally Posted by Ike

I don't quite consider it 'the best land'. Maybe the best land to hide, or the best land where invaders will never go. Winters are cold as hell, and there are last remainings of primeval forests in Europe, which looks like this:
http://sutjeska.design21th.com/slike.../Perucica3.jpg


Why did Fourth and Fifth enemy offensives ended up with partisans surrounded in that exact area?

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Lol,winters are so cold in Balkans?
What about winters in Russia than?
As for those massive forests ,are quite nice to live near ,you have wood to build houses,places to raise animals and so on.

Yes you're right other people must know. This is also good link that explains the present population of Sarajevo .
*ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sarajevo

Male population of Sarajevo has over 50% I2a din

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Originally Posted by doku

Yes you're right other people must know. This is also good link that explains the present population of Sarajevo .
*ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sarajevo

Male population of Sarajevo has over 50% I2a din

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I think that when you said that the most of Sarajevo inhabitants originate from Herzegovina was much more valuable for the discussion.

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Originally Posted by Ike

I don't quite consider it 'the best land'. Maybe the best land to hide, or the best land where invaders will never go. Winters are cold as hell, and there are last remainings of primeval forests in Europe, which looks like this:
http://sutjeska.design21th.com/slike.../Perucica3.jpg

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I don't see any people living there.

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Originally Posted by Shetop

I don't see any people living there.

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You think steppes were a much better place to live?
This was indeed one of the best places to live in Europe,together with high mountains from Sardinia,Austria,Switzerland and other mountainous places.
In this places you were protected by the invaders ,you were protected by floods and other extreme weather.
Besides,food was very easy to get,just go and hunt something or go and fish something in the rivers,mushrooms in the forest and so on.

Question to the Bosnians, Croatians, Serbians and Montenegrins here on the Forum: Could you provide us with some more detail about the Old Vlachs (Stari Vlah), Black Vlachs, and Morlachs ? Who were they, where did they settle, and how long did they preserve their vulgar Latin (Vlach) language? The English Wikipedia article just starts with the 14th century, and focuses on the 18th/19th century. The German article mentions that the Morlachs preserved their Romanic language into the medieval period, without providing further detail. The only half-way decent discussion that I have found so far is http://web.archive.org/web/200712271...zeanu2000.html

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Originally Posted by Shetop

I don't see any people living there.

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Agree, but that is where the peak of I2a-Din is. The more hostile terrain, more I2 as I see it.

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Originally Posted by mihaitzateo

Lol,winters are so cold in Balkans?
What about winters in Russia than?
As for those massive forests ,are quite nice to live near ,you have wood to build houses,places to raise animals and so on.

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You're comparing Russia? But why? Sarajevo is the same latitude like Toulouse, and it has climate of Kiev.

As far as I investigated I could not put together a comprehensive story about the origin of the Vlachs. The way I see it, is that it is covered by the darkness of the Middle Ages. So maybe someone else could try...

Romanian ,that is spoken by Vlachs,is not Vulgar Latin,who told you that,lol?
It is having at least 20% of the words cognates to Slavic and have resemblances in grammar,plenty,to Macedonian language besides Latin.