Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

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Originally Posted by Vallicanus

@Riverman
The problem is the Putin regime not Zelensky's regime.

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They are both problematic. Selenski did absolutely nothing to de-escalate, made absurd demands and is leading Ukraine in a total war. He doesn�t even care if his gambling destroys the Ukraine and he won't care if it would escalate to a nuclear 3rd World War.
That much is clear. He had all the time and chances to show not just Russia, but the world, that he takes negotiations seriously and wants a peaceful solution, just like he promised in his election campaign.
Absolutely nothing came from him, he only escalated to the next level.
Granted, Putin wasn't any better, but in terms of warmongering, they are equals.
Selenski started a suicidal course deliberately and now he wants the whole world to follow him into disaster? He is an irresponsible egomaniac.
I am very sorry for the Ukrainian people, but I hope that not millions or even billions have to die for this regime in Kiev to prove them victorious at all costs.
Selenski and Putin are equals in neglecting the value of human life and well-being for their personal goals.
What did Ukraine offer the Russians for a peaceful solution? Nothing but to continue the war, as soon as possible with direct NATO support.

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Originally Posted by Angela

I said it on the first page of this thread and I still believe it; the West will let Ukraine go.

All of these sanctions avoid the one thing that Putin needs to prop himself up: his oil and gas sales.

Western Europe will not endanger those because it would impact its own economy; the deal it still no doubt hopes it will be able to implement one day is still waiting.

The U.S., with a President who was so risk averse he didn't want to go in after Bin Laden, will not lead the way. Nor will he put up a no-fly zone, which at least we did for the Kurds.

All of this despite the fact there is a written agreement on the table, guaranteed by Russia, the U.S., and the U.K., that Ukraine's sovereignty would be respected.

In light of that fact does anyone really believe the west will suddenly find its courage and moral compass because of another piece of paper, the NATO agreements?

If I were a leader of one of the former Eastern Bloc countries, I wouldn't believe it for a second and I would start preparing now.

The rest is just theater.

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Russia will have no economy by June with the sanctions taken. I wonder if Ukraine manages to survive till at least August maybe Putin might retreat.

"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."


https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...Sba-vy_2qxr19A

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Originally Posted by Northener

I saw just a Dutch farmer he has a big farm in the Ukraine, owner of 15000 hectares of grain area. He states that when the war not will stop quit immediately this wil lead to a big big food crisis.....

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How is Dutch people saying about its risk on Russia?
Now Shell bought highly discounted Russian oil and wall street tried to buy Russian bonds with cheap money.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNAQVoQX...g&name=900x900

Under the bloody situation I think some countries are grinning at their private rooms. Some countries suffocate with the flood of oil money, however, try not to take a care of their poor neighbours with the same religion. Nobody says about China regarding Covid. Finally Germany decided to raise their defence budget which makes the dream of the US come true.
Moreover US dollar is now more dominant as a safe heaven asset:
"Sanctioning Russia is a masterstroke that will cement the dollar’s dominant role in world affairs."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sa...ject-syndicate

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Originally Posted by ihype02

Russia will have no economy by June with the sanctions taken. I wonder if Ukraine manages to survive till at least August maybe Putin might retreat.

"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."


https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...Sba-vy_2qxr19A

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I think it is not simple that way. There is a reason for wall street to buy Russian bond now. Before that, thousands of factories in west would be closed due to high price of natural resources. Russia has a back-up, china and India. Russia has already a long term contract of natural resources with china which has a different dream to make Russia as chinese vassal state. Moreover Russia reserves enough foreign currency to buy product from china and India.
More big problem in Ukraine is Neon than wheat. 70% of Neon in the world is produced in Ukraine, without which chips cannot be produced.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNBmXcBW...pg&name=medium
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/st...460100/photo/1

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Originally Posted by ihype02

Russia will have no economy by June with the sanctions taken. I wonder if Ukraine manages to survive till at least August maybe Putin might retreat.

"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."


https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...Sba-vy_2qxr19A

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First of all there is no way Ukraine wil stand till august if the west doesn't impose the no-fly zone.
Putin will step up his cruelties. The number of civilian casualties is already rising the last few days.
He won't hesitate to use cluster bombs or chemical warfare.

Second Putin is not worried about the Russian economy.
He only cares for himself and his direct entourage.
If necessary he will also use terror against his own Russian citizens.
Do you think the Communists cared about the economy?
History might repeat itself.

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Originally Posted by johen

I think it is not simple that way. There is a reason for wall street to buy Russian bond now. Before that, thousands of factories in west would be closed due to high price of natural resources. Russia has a back-up, china and India. Russia has already a long term contract of natural resources with china which has a different dream to make Russia as chinese vassal state. Moreover Russia reserves enough foreign currency to buy product from china and India.
More big problem in Ukraine is Neon than wheat. 70% of Neon in the world is produced in Ukraine, without which chips cannot be produced.

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/st...460100/photo/1

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what is Neon?

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Originally Posted by bicicleur 2

what is Neon?

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Its even on Wikipedia:

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Neon is produced from air in cryogenic air-separation plants. A gas-phase mixture mainly of nitrogen, neon, and helium is withdrawn from the main condenser at the top of the high-pressure air-separation column and fed to the bottom of a side column for rectification of the neon.^[42] It can then be further purified from helium.

Ninety per cent of neon production is in Russia and Ukraine.^[43] As of 2020, the company Iceblick, with plants in Odessa and Moscow, supplies 65 per cent of the world's production of neon, as well as 15% of the krypton and xenon.^[44][45]

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely to create a shortage of industrial neon, as Ukraine is a major producer of neon gas critical for lasers used in chipmaking, and supplies more than 90% of U.S. semiconductor-grade neon.^[45][44]

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon

Rubio hits imo the nail on his head:

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world...v-sotu-vpx.cnn

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Originally Posted by Northener

Rubio hits imo the nail on his head:

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world...v-sotu-vpx.cnn

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Absolutely, people need to realise in what situation Russia is by now. To corner it even more without any reasonable exit strategy is the most stupid thing the West could do. They should keep up a certain pressure on Russia, but at the same time force the Ukrainian government make a real peace offer and take negotiations seriously and allowing Russia to get out of this conflict heads up with a fair compromise. That is something they should have done from the start, instead of entrenching a hardliner position in Ukraine which was just confrontational.

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Originally Posted by Riverman

Absolutely, people need to realise in what situation Russia is by now. To corner it even more without any reasonable exit strategy is the most stupid thing the West could do. They should keep up a certain pressure on Russia, but at the same time force the Ukrainian government make a real peace offer and take negotiations seriously and allowing Russia to get out of this conflict heads up with a fair compromise. That is something they should have done from the start, instead of entrenching a hardliner position in Ukraine which was just confrontational.

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Imo it is not Russia it is Putin. Putin is eager to restore "czaristic Russia" his big legacy. After the fall of the fall, the KGB spy became taxi driver. This is his (personal) ultimate revanche! This is not the will of the Russian people (see how thousands of them protest despite they were take of to jail....). They are not motivated for Putin's agenda.

That Putin thing is tricky because a Dutch saying is imo accurat: "a cornered cat makes weird jumps".

There are two versions about Putin:
1. he is gone made, gone bereserk
2. he plays he has gone made.

What is it?

In both cases a mindset of one leader cornered, isolated, with only yes marbles....this is the ultimate unpredictability.

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Originally Posted by Northener

Imo it is not Russia it is Putin. Putin is eager to restore "czaristic Russia" his big legacy. After the fall of the fall, the KGB spy became taxi driver. This is his (personal) ultimate revanche! This is not the will of the Russian people (see how thousands of them protest despite they were take of to jail....). They are not motivated for Putin's agenda.

That Putin thing is tricky because a Dutch saying is imo accurat: "a cornered cat makes weird jumps".

There are two versions about Putin:
1. he is gone made, gone bereserk
2. he plays he has gone made.

What is it?

In both cases a mindset of one leader cornered, isolated, with only yes marbles....this is the ultimate unpredictability.

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Always looking just at Putin is wrong, because he got also cornered by the Ukraine hardliner position, which cut off Crimea from water and attacked the Donbas region, not caring about the Minsk Agreement. They banned all pro-Russian media stations and tried to persecute pro-Russian activists, unleashing massive anti-Russian propaganda. So this was without doubt confrontational, by a president Selenski which got voted into office for promising peace and reconciliation with Russia, so he is an obvious liar.

He was brought into office, at least in part, by this guy, which is a criminal oligarch in Ukraine:

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In April 2014 Kolomoyskyi offered a bounty for the capture of Russian-backed militants and incentives for the turning in of weapons.^[44] He also is believed to have spent $10 million to create the Dnipro Battalion,^[43][45] and also funded the Aidar, Azov, Dnepr 1, Dnepr 2, and Donbas volunteer battalions.

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He is a Russian-hater and warmonger, a sought after criminal, for which Selenski would have paced the path back to his "assets" in the Ukraine on the longer run. Selenski was first made popular by his TV show, in which he played the president of the Ukraine, in which he was a dismantlingly honest and upright teacher, so an image was created for him. Then he got a massive presidential campaign, especially in Kolomoyskyi TV station 1+1:

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He also has media interests in the 1+1 Media Group, which operates eight Ukrainian TV channels.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ihor_Kolomoyskyi

Selenski does care **** about the Ukrainian losses and destruction, and he will escalate this to the next level, even a nuclear war with Russia, he is a completley irresponsible person.

Putin is in a position like Rubio claimed, but what should we learn from this? This Selenski regime is as problematic and to give it unconditional support means just adding fuel to the fire, nothing else. Selenski planned that confrontation, he didn't care, he deliberately ignored all peace offers and compromises, even though he promised to reach out for peace to his Ukrainian voters!
I understand if people hate Putin for what he did, but I don't understand how people can support Selenski as much as they do, because he is as bad or worse. If the Western powers helped Selenski & Kolomoyskyi to establish their regime in Ukraine and armed it up, with the prospect of joining NATO without any agreement reached with Russia, what did anybody expect to happen? They tried to turn Ukraine into an anti-Russian bridgehead in Eastern Europe. The anti-Russian hate propaganda started years ago and was financed by a group of Ukrainian oligarchs which control the mass media and all dissenting views being banned in the recent years.
Putin did overreact and cause unjustified destruction and suffering, but he didn't do it just out of the blue, there is an objective reason to it, because the Selenski regime is a hostile, oligarch-financed threat.

To expand on the issue, this is how the oligarch Kolomoyskyi used the private militias in the past, its indeed as bad as it was in the worst times of Yeltsin's Russia, when the mob could just grab companies by force:

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The worrying thing about Kolomoisky's raid on the oil company last week is that it seems to have partially worked: Kolomoisky may not have been able to keep his ally in the chairman's job, but he reportedly said that he and Ukraine's president have reached an agreement to install a temporary chairman for UkrTransNafta who "would not be carrying out any investigations of its finances." Kolomoisky has significant interests in the oil company; now, it seems, he's been able to use his private army to shield his business dealings from legal or financial scrutiny.
While fighting the war against the separatists might be a priority now, at some point the Ukrainian government needs to be able to govern Ukraine. It can't do that if parts of the country are dominated by militias that don't obey any official authority.
Adrian Karatnycky, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, warned during an interview in February that simply by existing, those private armies could be "creating enough of an implicit threat that the government can't move against, say, corrupt schemes." The events in Ukraine last week suggest his concerns were well-placed.
These groups pose a serious threat to Ukrainian civilians, as well. In December, pro-Kiev militias blocked humanitarian aid from reaching rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine. Amnesty International researcher Denis Krivosheev said the militias were using starvation of civilians as a weapon, and called the tactic a war crime.

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https://www.vox.com/2015/3/23/827939...kraine-militia

Note these are the same kind of people which now mistreat and torture Russian prisoners of war, or which keep husbands and sons from fleeing the country and pushing them into military units as cannon fodder and which, in the official news we get today, complain about the Russian side if its about the humanitarian corridors.

What did the West do? What did the West do, when hundreds of thousands of pro-Russian Ukrainians fled the country to Russia? No outcry, nothing. This is pure hypocrisy. USA and UK not just watched the conflict unfolding, they indeed added fuel to it and now they just blame one side. Sorry, but that's not fair, its as simple as that. They acted both bad enough to be blamed, and they both need to accept a compromise which is probably not ideal but a meaningful peaceful solution. Anything else, like stepping up violence for the Selenski regime, even with the threat of a nuclear 3rd World War is pure madness. And talking about democracy in such a manipulated setting like Ukraine is also a questionable thing to do, its all about geostrategical and personal financial-power interests, West and Russia alike.

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Originally Posted by Riverman

Its even on Wikipedia:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon

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ok, it's the chemical element, an inert gas.
I guess they use it in the semiconductor industry to shield the chips from oxydation while producing the chip.
I suppose they will find an alternative if there is a shortage for Neon, albeit maybe something more expensive.

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Originally Posted by Northener

Rubio hits imo the nail on his head:

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world...v-sotu-vpx.cnn

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He's wrong to emphasize Putin is 70 years old.
When only Putin is removed, a similar man from the Kremlin KGB will persecute Putin's ambitions.
When they get Ukraine, they'll go for Georgia and Moldavia.
And if they get away with that, they'll go to for the Baltic states.

Putin's confidence got a blow because he underestimated Ukraine's resistance.
Now is the moment to strike.
If you let this pass he'll step up in Ukraine with cluster bombs and chemical warfare.
And after that he'll go further.

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Originally Posted by bicicleur 2

ok, it's the chemical element, an inert gas.
I guess they use it in the semiconductor industry to shield the chips from oxydation while producing the chip.
I suppose they will find an alternative if there is a shortage for Neon, albeit maybe something more expensive.

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They don't have the capability to replace those production facilities. So the shortage will come and be a major issue for the chip production. However, its not that Western nations can't do that themselves, but it will need more time and investment than people might anticipate. So if this won't be solved soon in Ukraine/Russia, it will lead to serious problems for the whole production chain.

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Originally Posted by bicicleur 2

He's wrong to emphasize Putin is 70 years old.
When only Putin is removed, a similar man from the Kremlin KGB will persecute Putin's ambitions.
When they get Ukraine, they'll go for Georgia and Moldavia.
And if they get away with that, they'll go to for the Baltic states.

Putin's confidence got a blow because he underestimated Ukraine's resistance.
Now is the moment to strike.
If you let this pass he'll step up in Ukraine with cluster bombs and chemical warfare.
And after that he'll go further.

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No, the situation is tense, Russia is cornered, being attacked by NATO, e.g. under the premise of a "No-Fly zone", which means open war, also means a lot of Russian and NATO pilotes will be shot down and this is open war. From the point of Russia losing air superiority, they can only resort to weapons of mass destruction to save their position. So you really want to start a nuclear 3rd World War for this irresponsible Selenski and his allied oligarchs? They brought Ukraine to this point as much as Putin did, with being hardline anti-Russian and confrontational, without any chance for Russia to solve this peacefully.
This was absolutely unnecessary, they crossed many red lines and they knew it. Now they escalated the war even further and don't care for civilians or this becoming World War III. You know, for Kolomoyskyi and other mobsters like him, its a personal issue also, because they own large fractions of Ukraine, and he already lost "his assets" in Crimea and being persecuted by Russia and was persecuted in Ukraine also. Yet he has his private militias, which did multiple atrocities and he even paid bounties for Russians and pro-Russian Ukrainians, which fights this war.
With Kolomoyskyi and others like him behind Selenski, which lied, when he promised to find a diplomatic solution with Russia in his election campaign, there was obviously no peaceful solution to this conflict, because they want to keep their grip on the country. The Ukrainian nationalists and patriots being just abused for their interests, but at least they know what they are fighting for or think they do, but the common Ukrainian population was dragged into this by the Selenski regime and he is unwilling to find any peaceful solution.
Kolomoyskyi hates Russia, wants to bring it down, and he wants his private assets from Crimea back and staying one of the oligarchs of Ukraine.

And for that bunch the West should start World War III? Seriously?

There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever for Russian plans other than the current or former GUS states:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ent_States.svg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common...pendent_States

Russia has neither the intention nor the capability to go any further by force. That's just invented anti-Russian propaganda!

The West should make clear for Selenski that he should go back to the negotiations table and show good will for coming to a peaceful agreement, or the support gets cut. But of course, they never will do that, because they being so deeply involved into this conflict by now and made up "good vs. evil" narrative. And especially the USA and UK don't care, because they wanted Russia down or at least isolated before already. They were always against Nordstream II, as if a dependence from American fracking gas would be better than the Russian pipeline for Europe.

That regime of Selenski did so many things to escalate that conflict and so little for de-escalation, that I see absolutely no reason for risking a 3rd world war for these warmongers. They brought themselves into this situation with Putin as equally responsible. Putin had no right to escalate to that level, but he was running out of options by being cornered aggressively by both the Selenski regime and USA plus UK. Either they wanted war or they deliberately risked it, now they are out to blame all the others and demand even more escalation. What for? They should push for a diplomatic solution, like they should have already 8 years ago instead of such an awful confrontational stance which causes only suffering and destruction.

More about the oligarch behind Selenski, from a very solid and well-established German newspaper, so not from a "biased source" or "fake news", I simply used Google translate:

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Kolomoisky rejected the cornerstone of his current empire of industrial companies, banks, media and airlines in the 1990s, according to his opponents with the violent conquest of companies. In 2005, Kolomoisky was suspected of having commissioned a murder lawyer. Kolomoisky denied all allegations, the General Prosecutor's Office closed the investigation. When his business partner was dismissed as head of a state oil transport company in early 2015, Kolomoisky had his private militia storm the company headquarters. President Petro Poroshenko fired Kolomoisky as governor - the beginning of arch-enmity.
In late 2016, Kolomoisky's PrivatBank was nationalized after Kolomoisky and business partners apparently plundered the bank to the point of leaving a $5 billion hole in its balance sheet. Kolomoisky says he is the victim of a political intrigue. In 2016, one of his business partners was arrested on suspicion of murder and kidnapping. Kolomoisky moved to Switzerland and then to Israel in the summer of 2018.

Like Selensky, Kolomoisky is of Jewish descent. In addition to the Ukrainian one, he has an Israeli passport. Dual citizenship is punishable under Ukrainian law, but for Kolomoisky it has the advantage that Israel does not extradite its citizens. There are a number of court proceedings against Kolomoisky in Ukraine and Switzerland; The FBI is also said to be investigating him on suspicion of money laundering - his lawyer denies any wrongdoing. In the last presidential campaign, Kolomoisky did everything he could to overthrow his nemesis Poroshenko. First he relied on ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, then on Volodymyr Zelensky, who as an actor and producer has been connected to Kolomoisky's television channel 1+1 for years. Selensky denies any influence by Kolomoisky. But he has visited Kolomoisky 14 times since 2017, in Geneva and Israel, and even for four days in December 2018. On New Year's Eve, Selensky was allowed to speak on 1+1 at midnight in place of the president and declare his candidacy. Kolomoisky's lawyer Andriy Bohdan also plays a role in Selensky's team and has already been sent to secret meetings, for example with the head of the anti-corruption office investigating in several cases against Kolomoisky. Shortly before Selensky's election victory, a court in Kyiv declared the nationalization of PrivatBank illegal - Kolomoisky could face billions in compensation. Parliamentarian Serhiy Leshchenko called the verdict "the direct result of corruption in the courts." One of Zelensky's advisors says that the possible further influence of Kolomoisky is now "the greatest danger to his presidency".

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https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/...nsky-1.4418172

What a fine president this is and he wants to get Crimea back for his supporter Kolomoisky and Russia on its knees. Even though the Crimeans don't want to belong to Ukraine, but that doesn't matter. All these "games" in the background make this Ukrainian state definitely not any better than Russia. For that regime the Western states should risk a nuclear war, because of their greed and stubbornness, them being unwilling to accept any fair compromise with Russia? They offered nothing, nothing at all, even though Selenski lied and promised peace in his election campaign, he did nothing but stepping up with the escalation.

The US gone mad, this is from CNN, which became a direct propaganda media outlet:

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But with the United States making clear it views countries that don't condemn Putin's war as aligned with Russia, the world's two most populous nations are facing increased international pressure to speak out -- or risk being seen as complicit.

That neither country has chosen to do so has illuminated Russia's outsized influence in Asia, where arms sales and no-strings-attached trade have allowed Moscow to exploit regional fault lines and weaker ties to the West.

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https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/a...dst/index.html

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According to audio obtained by The Washington Post, Trump told a group of Republican donors in New Orleans that the United States should paint Chinese flags on its F-22 planes and then use those planes to bomb Russia.

"And then we say, 'China did it, we didn't do it, China did it,' and then they start fighting with each other and we sit back and watch," Trump concluded.

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https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/politics/donald-trump-ukraine-china-russia/index.html

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Originally Posted by bicicleur 2

First of all there is no way Ukraine wil stand till august if the west doesn't impose the no-fly zone.
Putin will step up his cruelties. The number of civilian casualties is already rising the last few days.
He won't hesitate to use cluster bombs or chemical warfare.

Second Putin is not worried about the Russian economy.
He only cares for himself and his direct entourage.
If necessary he will also use terror against his own Russian citizens.
Do you think the Communists cared about the economy?
History might repeat itself.

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Honestly at this point i have to partially agree with Riverman, in that Zelensky should just give up. Else he is just asking for more dead civilians especially when he asks them to help the military fighting. not to mention the soldiers who will die. the West should just try to keep up those sanctions as long as possible and hope that Putin goes away asap and that things change afterwards.

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Originally Posted by ihype02

Russia will have no economy by June with the sanctions taken. I wonder if Ukraine manages to survive till at least August maybe Putin might retreat.

"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."


https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...Sba-vy_2qxr19A

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Of course, more and more sanctions are coming. Russia cannot cope with this pressure for longer time.

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Originally Posted by Ailchu

Honestly at this point i have to partially agree with Riverman, in that Zelensky should just give up. Else he is just asking for more dead civilians especially when he asks them to help the military fighting. not to mention the soldiers who will die. the West should just try to keep up those sanctions as long as possible and hope that Putin goes away asap and that things change afterwards.

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Reward Putin's aggression?

No way.

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Originally Posted by bicicleur 2

He's wrong to emphasize Putin is 70 years old.
When only Putin is removed, a similar man from the Kremlin KGB will persecute Putin's ambitions.
When they get Ukraine, they'll go for Georgia and Moldavia.
And if they get away with that, they'll go to for the Baltic states.

Putin's confidence got a blow because he underestimated Ukraine's resistance.
Now is the moment to strike.
If you let this pass he'll step up in Ukraine with cluster bombs and chemical warfare.
And after that he'll go further.

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You are right.
Weakness and reasonable behaviour merely encourages an aggressor like Putin.

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Originally Posted by Ailchu

Honestly at this point i have to partially agree with Riverman, in that Zelensky should just give up. Else he is just asking for more dead civilians especially when he asks them to help the military fighting. not to mention the soldiers who will die. the West should just try to keep up those sanctions as long as possible and hope that Putin goes away asap and that things change afterwards.

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Militarily, he can still have some options beside total destruction until Kiev being fully and firmly encircled and the Western army groups of the UAF being cut off along the Dnepr. If the main forces manage to get over the river, which is also why they sacrifice civilians and delay the humanitarian corridors or want them to be used by military forces too, the Selenski regime can continue the war in the West and until being beaten there too or the Russian army collapses or there are incidents, which the Selenski regime will try to provoke, to cause a NATO intervention.
He is a total gambler which doesn't care for the Ukrainian people and their life and well-being. If he has any humanity and responsibility left, he would try to get into serious negotiations as soon as possible. And he would surrender officially once the Kiev encirclement happened and the Western forces being cut off. That's the latest point for such a turn. But I don't believe he will do it. He will sacrifice millions of Ukrainians and Russians instead and at the end getting out to London for an exile government and instigate hate and confrontation from there as long as he gets paid for it. That's the 2nd worst scenario after nuclear war and my most likely predicted scenario.
The less likely, but still possible scenario, is that the Russian forces collapse because they lack the determination to win this war, then he could win and being celebrated as the "hero" which brought Russia down. Russia would then become a chaotic thing with warlords and mobsters, political extremists of all sort and a nuclear arsenal. Not a great prospect either.

Selenski and his regime did refuse to accept anything negotiated in the Mink agreements and said he won't "negotiate with terrorists". That's the kind of peace negotiations he promised in his election campaign... He lied before and went into confrontation mode, he shows absolutely no intention to step down.

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Originally Posted by Vallicanus

Reward Putin's aggression?

No way.

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Reward the war course of an irresponsibly acting and corrupted regime of Selenski with the prospect of World War 3? Who is supposed to profit from that?

Russia had legitimate demands, but instead of trying to negotiate a compromise, the Selenski regime just stepped up with its aggressive confrontation. They never implemented Minsk II and had the intention to eliminate the pro-Russian territories by force and get Crimea back with the help of NATO, from the start. They don't care for peace or human suffering if its about reaching their goals for the clique around him, people like Kolomoyskyi. You want a 3rd World War for people like him:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ihor_Kolomoyskyi

The common Ukrainians are innocent, they being just victims of these two bellicose regimes clashing and this is a tragedy. But to side with one corrupted regime and escalate things to a threat for humanity is no reasonable option, or at least should be none.

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Originally Posted by Northener

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/politics/donald-trump-ukraine-china-russia/index.html

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If that would be true, it would be yet another instance of great that he didn't made it into office this time...
However, considering how biased CNN is towards any conservatives and Trump in particular, I would be careful about whether or not this is real or fake. But with a bit of alcohol packed, he might babble such nonsense. The next day he might praise Putin or whatever, is sometimes quite unpredictable.

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Originally Posted by Riverman

If that would be true, it would be yet another instance of great that he didn't made it into office this time...
However, considering how biased CNN is towards any conservatives and Trump in particular, I would be careful about whether or not this is real or fake. But with a bit of alcohol packed, he might babble such nonsense. The next day he might praise Putin or whatever, is sometimes quite unpredictable.

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You have seen this is recorded and it's possessed by the washington post, so in the end this is the proof of the pudding. #beyondbias

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Originally Posted by Northener

You have seen this is recorded and it's possessed by the washington post, so in the end this is the proof of the pudding. #beyondbias

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True, but he was joking, apparently:

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The Post reports that the Republican donor audience laughed when Trump proposed his "pretend-we're-the-Chinese" strategy. What's far less clear is whether Trump was actually joking.

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https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/p...sia/index.html

Ok, then its just a typical CNN spin, making him look like a fool or maniac when he in fact just made a joke...

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Originally Posted by bicicleur 2

He's wrong to emphasize Putin is 70 years old.
When only Putin is removed, a similar man from the Kremlin KGB will persecute Putin's ambitions.
When they get Ukraine, they'll go for Georgia and Moldavia.
And if they get away with that, they'll go to for the Baltic states.

Putin's confidence got a blow because he underestimated Ukraine's resistance.
Now is the moment to strike.
If you let this pass he'll step up in Ukraine with cluster bombs and chemical warfare.
And after that he'll go further.

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I guess not a cornered cat makes weird jumps. He is isolated, one track minded and no one contradicts him. There are NO checks and balances in the Kremlin. If you corner him totally, without any way out, he becomes totally uncalculable.

He doesn't have the conventional strength to go beyond the Ukraine. And the Ukraine itself may already be overstretch.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Riverman

True, but he was joking, apparently:


https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/p...sia/index.html

Ok, then its just a typical CNN spin, making him look like a fool or maniac when he in fact just made a joke...

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Of course it's a joke...one enduring joke....

And sorry Riverman about the Zelenski entourage in the Ukraine you made some points that made me think.

But you have some anti-CNN bias too. It is recorded and the original source is Washington post. Trump self feeds this kind of stuff. This is joke or not plain ridiculous talk.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bicicleur 2

First of all there is no way Ukraine wil stand till august if the west doesn't impose the no-fly zone.
Putin will step up his cruelties. The number of civilian casualties is already rising the last few days.
He won't hesitate to use cluster bombs or chemical warfare.

Second Putin is not worried about the Russian economy.
He only cares for himself and his direct entourage.
If necessary he will also use terror against his own Russian citizens.
Do you think the Communists cared about the economy?
History might repeat itself.

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I agree with you where you say that Putin does not care about the economic situation of his country and its people. Economic sanctions will not stop Putin. The USSR and the Central Committee of the Communist Party survived from 1917 to 1991 under economic sanction from the West and investing heavily only in weapons, censorship and repression to maintain the USSR as a military superpower and with an alienated (uninformed) people. While today the majority of the West invests, on average, in the armed forces, 3% of its annual budget, Putin's Russia invests more than 20%. If Western Europe invests in health, education, science, technology, social welfare in general, Putin takes it all away from his people and invests in weapons. He doesn't care about the people (the communists didn't care either), but only about himself and the oligarchy to which he belongs. This somewhat explains the fact that Russia is not an economic superpower that radiates prosperity to the people, but is a military superpower where the social well-being of the population in general has no relevance. The clear option is for Russia as a military superpower, with a poor, uninformed and submissive people. Angela is right. Typical third world view.

As for the No-Fly Zone, for now I think this is madness that would push all of Europe into a war of unpredictable consequences to save the Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukraine from capitulation. Many people, myself included, doubted that Putin would invade Ukraine. Now I have no more doubts about the possibility of an escalation of the war depending on the behavior of the West in relation to the conflict. I wouldn't want to be in anyone's firing line. But I speak only for myself, I have never been an altruistic person when it comes to my own self-preservation and that of my family.

岸田首相は７日の参院予算委員会で� �北方領土に関する日本政府の認識を� ��われ、「『固有の領土』『主権を有 する領土』、ともに我が国の対応だ� �と述べた。「この用語を使い分けた� ��憶はない」とも語った。

The government has been forced to re-orbit its policy toward Russia following the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops. This is because negotiations on a peace treaty, including the Northern Territories issue between Japan and Russia, have stagnated, and the progress of economic cooperation is uncertain.

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20220307-OYT1T50283/
_____

in short -->>> Japan has said that the southern Kurils are their sovereign territory

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Originally Posted by Duarte

As for the No-Fly Zone, for now I think this is madness that would push all of Europe into a war of unpredictable consequences to save the Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukraine from capitulation. Many people, myself included, doubted that Putin would invade Ukraine. Now I have no more doubts about the possibility of an escalation of the war depending on the behavior of the West in relation to the conflict. I wouldn't want to be in anyone's firing line. But I speak only for myself, I have never been an altruistic person when it comes to my own self-preservation and that of my family.

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This is no question of altruism vs. egoism, its one of intelligence and accountability. Does a nuclear war save Ukrainians? No, it ruins everbody's life on this planet and most certainly Europe as a whole. And then again, this war won't stop without negotiations, at some point, with or without Selenski, with or without Putin. There are fundamental, principle problems on the ground in Ukraine, from geostrategic games, historical heritage, ethnic and cultural ties to very personal interests and profits. This needs to be solved on the negotiations table, at some point, or becoming a bloody mess like the 30years war with 21st century weapons.
If Selenski is no sane political leader, he never was, he always lied and pretended to be something (a TV show persona!) which he is not, he is no dove, he never was, he is not even an accountable hawk, then we need an alternative. Unconditional support for such a regime is no option, and propaganda stations like CNN make it all "good vs evil", all that one sided propaganda which always just counts the misbehaviour of one side and emotionalises the public. How do they want to end this in a reasonable way? I think some of the "journalists" at CNN & Co. are just as irresponsible as Putin and Selenski are, with one basic difference: They don't even realise what the outcome of their actions might be, until its too late and the world is in flames, and for what? For supporting that warmonger in Kiev and his oligarchs.

I'm getting headache from these politicians closer to me (geographically) too:
https://www.diglogs.com/austria/shar...d_Schallenberg

Bigmouthed. That's all he is, again for what? Instead of keeping Austria strictly neutral and trying to initiate negotiations, they are loudmouthed as if they can make a difference that way. Just because the whole international choir under US supremacy has to sing. Whether it helps or not, doesn't matter. That's the wrong attitude. People should think more in terms of how we get out of this world crisis, instead of making it worse!

Especially in the Ukraine conflict, there is absolutely no black & white, good vs. evil. Absolutely not. Both sides have legitimate claims and do horrible things the same time, like so often in history.

He said it all 2015, but nobody listened, just warmongers which made things worse:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

Christ, it's true some people don't get humor.

I can't stand Trump, but anyone who can't see that was a joke needs to seriously consider that Trump Derangement Syndrome has taken control of them.

The whole idea is preposterous. As if the sham wouldn't be detected in a day.

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Originally Posted by Angela

Christ, it's true some people don't get humor.

I can't stand Trump, but anyone who can't see that was a joke needs to seriously consider that Trump Derangement Syndrome has taken control of them.

The whole idea is preposterous. As if the sham wouldn't be detected in a day.

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When it's humor it's misplaced humor....but that comes as no surprise.

@Riverman

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If people ask why I write more about the Russian side of things: Not because I think they are more right, but because they being simply underrepresented and the media coverage and public opinion is that skewed and one sided I simply can't stand it any more. For pro-Ukrainian statements anybody gets a medal at this point, but for even correcting false propaganda from the Ukrainian and UK-USA side, you being smeared as troll and whatnot. That's just the kind of atmosphere I can't stand. This is absolutely not about good vs. evil, especially if looking more carefully at what the Selenski regime did in the last years and how they conduct war themselves.

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First, keep the two things separate Putin and Zelenski. The Putin regime (not the Russians!) is authoritarian and repressive. Putin's revanchist agenda is clear. Also that the step has been taken to invade another country. There is no legitimacy for that. I don't see any reason whatsoever to argue against this, or underscore Putin's opinion because they are "underrepresented". They are underrepresented Riverman for a reason. So this is where your argument goes completely wrong.


So condemning Putin's regime doesn't have to mean that Zelensky is declared a virgin. That the sympathy is there can be explained of course: his country is under attack (so he is a 'victim'), he stands for a 'cause' (that he states well) that is shared with the most people in the west and he has a feeling for PR. The fact that a lot can be said about Zelenski's entourage is also true (you have shared information about it). And we have to remain critical of spin and the like.


At the same time, the ink black that comes from the Kremlin remains and let's keep calling it that. I see no point or need to act as a "spokesperson" for Putin....because Putin is "unrepresented" (so he is a victim?) give me a break.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Riverman

This is no question of altruism vs. egoism, its one of intelligence and accountability. Does a nuclear war save Ukrainians? No, it ruins everbody's life on this planet and most certainly Europe as a whole. And then again, this war won't stop without negotiations, at some point, with or without Selenski, with or without Putin. There are fundamental, principle problems on the ground in Ukraine, from geostrategic games, historical heritage, ethnic and cultural ties to very personal interests and profits. This needs to be solved on the negotiations table, at some point, or becoming a bloody mess like the 30years war with 21st century weapons.
If Selenski is no sane political leader, he never was, he always lied and pretended to be something (a TV show persona!) which he is not, he is no dove, he never was, he is not even an accountable hawk, then we need an alternative. Unconditional support for such a regime is no option, and propaganda stations like CNN make it all "good vs evil", all that one sided propaganda which always just counts the misbehaviour of one side and emotionalises the public. How do they want to end this in a reasonable way? I think some of the "journalists" at CNN & Co. are just as irresponsible as Putin and Selenski are, with one basic difference: They don't even realise what the outcome of their actions might be, until its too late and the world is in flames, and for what? For supporting that warmonger in Kiev and his oligarchs.

I'm getting headache from these politicians closer to me (geographically) too:
https://www.diglogs.com/austria/shar...d_Schallenberg

Bigmouthed. That's all he is, again for what? Instead of keeping Austria strictly neutral and trying to initiate negotiations, they are loudmouthed as if they can make a difference that way. Just because the whole international choir under US supremacy has to sing. Whether it helps or not, doesn't matter. That's the wrong attitude. People should think more in terms of how we get out of this world crisis, instead of making it worse!

Especially in the Ukraine conflict, there is absolutely no black & white, good vs. evil. Absolutely not. Both sides have legitimate claims and do horrible things the same time, like so often in history.

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Man at the negotiation tabel as long as Putin thinks he can win the war, he is TOTALLY not interested in real negotiations. Simple fact.

Austria has with all the respect no position to initiate negotiations sorry, why should it have?

And Putin's Kremlin is at the this moment pure repressive authoritarian....in fact indeed evil. What kind of hope comes from the Kremlin at this moment Riverman, nothing! If so give three examples what kind of hope comes nowadays from Putin?

Nothing politics now just humanitarian aide.

This morning started a aide collection for the Ukrainians in the Netherlands, the standings are 53 million euros, hopefully it will be even more....

21:30 standing 63 mil.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by aalexa

Unfortunately... I think the root of evil must be struck while there is still time ... Hitler_Stalin II ... the mad murderer and his acolytes are already haunting humanity again.

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We must give aid to ordinary people as good as possible....they are the real victims of the war.

(add. Evil will never disappear so attempt to root things out ... is never 'a solution' imo)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Northener

There is no legitimacy for that. I don't see any reason whatsoever to argue against this, or underscore Putin's opinion because they are "underrepresented".

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If Selenski and the USA try to bring the Ukraine in its current borders into NATO, while already arming it up and supporting a hardliner course which being directed, very directly, against Russian people and interests, its noteworthy, regardless. Because its a reason for war. Even more so if they cut off Crimea from water supply, banning all pro-Russian media and persecuting pro-Russian citizens, doing various kinds of mistreatments and war crimes in Donbas, like the mentioned hunger blockades, shelling of settlements, killing of leaders, tortue of prisoners and all the time threatening that Russia can't do anything, but just watch the opponent building up forces, until it hits its interests and allies with all the more force.
Then ignoring all the hundreds of thousands of pro-Russians which live now for years as refugees in Russia, because of the Ukrainian unwillingness to compromise. The corruption in the country and its aggressiveness towards all people which don't support the war, its neglect for the civilian lifes and how they drag men into service as cannon fodder.
The list might go on and become longer and longer, many things I don't even know as of now, and which all make clear that we are not at this point just because "Putin went crazy". At first I thought it was totally wrong what he did, and I still think its not justified to escalate things to this level, but there is a problem: What were his alternatives? Like I said, Ukraine was on war course, no matter what Russia did, they just build up their force to kick Russians and all pro-Russian/ethnic Russians which don't support the regime out. They want to take back Donbas, they want to get even Crimea back, with NATO support, they're unwilling to accept any compromise and just got stronger in their determination the last years.
If Russia would accept all that, all these catastrophic developments against Russian interests, they would still have a problem with Ukraine, because in Ukraine, all the oligarchs and their Western service agents with anti-Russian goals will build up a propaganda division, which will try to infiltrate Russia itself. That's pretty clear from the whole outline of it. Ukraine would be not just a military threat and problem, a great loss to the prestige and cause millions of Russian refugees, lost bases and positions, material wealth and resources, but it would stay a thorn in current Russias flesh all the years to come.

So what were the Russian options? Seriously, they were running out of options, because they got cornered by the unwillingness of the Selenski regime and the USA to accept any compromise. And that's why Russia did "overreact" and invaded the country. They were pushed to it, any objective observer which is able to consider geopolitical and strategical facts of the conflict will have to admit that, if being honest about it. In the above linked video, Mearsheimer did predict it 2015, that Putin won't invade Ukraine, only if being pushed that far and it might be a catastrophy for Russia - but that was the plan! And the USA and the Selenski regime just added one provocation after another, one push after the next, and no compromise in sight. Its an act of sheer desperation that Putin did resort to a full scale invasion. And the Selenski regime doesn't prove him wrong, because they just step up on the escalation ladder as far as they can and try to drag the whole world in this conflict. With people which act that way, show absolutely no sign for being ready to come to acceptable terms for both sides, you can't negotiate with.

Like I wrote from the start: I hope they can change the course of events, but this would also mean for Selenski to take himself back and not as important, but for that he is, quite obviously, by all his actions and appearances, too much of an egomaniac and self-promoter. Which is exactly why this situation is so dire.

These two regimes are for sure both not easy partners for peace talks, but some way they must get together, because what's the better alternative?