Don't worry.
Putin will probably get trigger-happy first.
Printable View
You can accuse Putin a lot of things, but that rather not. He is usually quite patient and planned in his actions. Risk taking yes, but only in calculated manner.
Unless he's losging it and would be no longer the same person he was just two years ago.
That's nothing impossible, we saw it in various leaders throughout history, because of circumstances, age or most of the time a concrete disease, pathological process.
But so far I see no evidence for that, other than his face getting somewhat bloated in a pretty short time. His actions and talks are not off.
That's the narrative of "Putins war" and "Putin is a madman". No he is not. And its not just Putins war. They attacked Russia, they attacked the Russians, they posed a threat to Russia and the Russians and took a completely hostile, menacing stance. Putin had to react, and the only Russians which don't see that are those which don't care for their state and people anyway. The same kind of people which don't care for their state and people in the West - so many young indeed, but not because they know better, but because they don't want to lose the Western luxury, being viewed nicely abroad and no sane person wants a war, especially not a war like this one. But if the other side, the Ukrainians and the Americans, act as they did, it gets close to having "no other choice".
The USA and the Selenski regime crossed multiple red lines in the last 3 years. Russia made a series of offers for negotiations and peace talks, honest offers with good conditions, better than they deserve, to the USA, to the Selenski regime. Russia did also appeal to practically all international institutions and organisations, they went the full legal way. But obviously, here again, the American influence on these organisations and the mass media blocked every peaceful path. The Selenski regime not just refused, they mocked Russia and just proceeded with their war course, arming up, preparing for the assault on Donbas, purging the Ukraine politically with authoritarian means and massive secret service support and secret money flowing into Ukraine. Selenski betrayed the Ukrainian voters, the Ukrainian people, by not doing anything for peace and ruining the democracy they had, with his political witch hunts and cleansing.
And I think he's finally beginning to wake up, but it might be too late for him, because either the Ukrainian nationalists get him or the Russians. Because the time for a good deal with Russia is running out. The more damage the Ukrainian-US confrontation with Russia causes the Russians, the worse the relationship with the European countries got, the less the Russian leadership cares. This was one big miscalculation for the Selenski regime and the USA. The USA have now just one alternative left: Start World War III as an aggressor, on their own. Nobody but Poland probably will support them - maybe Britain, but that's it.
French Macron, I'm obviously no big fan of him, finally broke the silence: We're not with the American warmongers, we're not supporting the US war against Russia up to the point of a 3rd World War. Germany, Austria, Hungary, etc., all made clear, that they need Russian relations and resources. The USA don't even pretend they could deliver gas in the same quality to the same price. They only promised on the short term 10 %! That's nothing! Here in Austria, in Germany, in Poland, Hungary, more than half of Europe, we would have the threat of a blackout and a total depression if being cut off from Russian gas! My family would sit in the dark and freeze, the companies our economy relies upon couldn't produce, the energy system would collapse. And even if the Arabs would deliver, because the Americans can't anyway, the price would be way too high. Its impossible.
They finally came to senses, hopefully, and made clear to the American warmonger, that if they want to go to war with Russia, they should do it on their own, take the full responsibility for their "regime change adventure" which will lead to World War III. Not with us, its not our war, we Europeans never wanted it, France and Germany in paricular didn't wanted this confrontation. It was done by the USA, its their responsibility to even have tried to encircle Russia, to get to his "soft belly" with such sneaky and treacherous methods, at a time Russia was absolutely willing to compromise, to take a pro-Western stance.
The USA will have shot in their own knee. The Russians just gather forces, with the next big swing they will break the UAF back in Donbas and that's it, then they can only run and won't stop before the Dnepr. If they are lucky, the Dnepr front will hold for some time longer, but I doubt it, because even though they counter attacked, the Russians already secured two bridgeheads anyway.
And once more some words to this nonsense about "scorged earth" tactics, which I refuted before already: If the Russians would like to do that, they could have done it to Kharkiv and Kiev alike already. But they only do it methodically, where they actually advance! That's the best proof for the Russians just using their blunt force where its being absolulely needed and where they have to support their infantry and mechanised divisions advances! They are still, after all that hate, after all those incidents with hostile Ukrainians, which even poisened young Russian soldiers, in their home and crap like that being celebrated by these ...., they still spare them if they can.
Because if they would want to, they could have laid Kharkiv and Kiev in ashes, completely, already. They don't have, because they give them time to consider another option: The diplomatic solution. Because they don't want "incidents" and next level escalation. However, they are ready to do it, if the Ukrainians don't come to senses and take, after all this death, crippled and wounded people, destroyed cities and landscapes, negotiations seriously. But for Selenski, that much is clear, the clock is ticking.
And concerning the treatment of POW: There are limits to cruelty, of what you do to regular captured soldiers. The Ukrainians, there is now more than enough evidence for it, crossed that line too. They will have to pay for this. Torturing and mutilating captured soldiers is beyond anything acceptable, regardless of what else. The only potential reason I can imagine is, if you want some absolutely crucial information, you know the captured soldier has it or he has done the same, proven case, to your people. But the Ukrainians do it to many Russians, regular young men, just being captured by them after regular fighting. Innocent young guys.
This kind of behaviour, this sneaky, cruel, abhorrent behaviour, will fall back on them too. The Russians will lose temper, they won't surrender any more, and they will retaliate, rightfully so.
Just like in Syria, the thugs are on the other side, not the one supported by the USA. I'm not saying the Russians can't get rough too, but there are limits, there are red lines, and the Ukrainians crossed it. This will fall back on them.
Some Ukrainian forces seem to think they can do whatever they want and get away with it. That's partisan style cruelty, dirty war, its awful. It won't work out and I just hope the perpetrators which tormented these poor Russian boys will have to pay for it.
A #Moscow City Duma deputy suggested that six more countries - #Kazakhstan, #Moldova, #Poland, #Lithuania, #Latvia, and #Estonia - should be "denazified":
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1507563413626658818
^^^
How nice, this list includes exactly the same "together there is 90 million of us" countries which Zelensky mentioned (except for Belarus, still under Lukashenko):
https://www.eupedia.com/forum/thread...e-Commonwealth
=====
Russian television announced recently that a huge ship was going to arrive in a port near Mariupol with loads of ammo and other stuff.
Right after the ship pulled into harbor and was being unloaded, a Ukrainian ballistic missile blew it up, and probably damaged two other Russian ships:
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1506926803868340228
100% confirmed via many different sources.
If you would take every MP from any country serious and take what a single one of them says in any given situation as the position the real government has, on a given issue - well, that doesn't work out.
As for the Commonwealth and cultural spheres, its worth to note that the regions Russia seems now primarily interested in, tries to conquer and occupy, are exactly those which are primarily Russian speaking, Russian in culture and didn't belong to the Westenr states sphere in the historical past. The only other thing in common is that the Russians clearly want to cut off Ukraine from the sea and are unlikely to stop, unless they really lose a series of battles or the like, before they achieved that. This means Odessa is a must have for them, Mariupol anyway, because that was part of the uprising in 2014 even and just got fully reconquered with the areas around by the UAF with Western and nationalist forces.
Compare with the Eastern border of the Western states in the 17th century:
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/f4/bd...b84c2d29c9.png
18th century:
https://geocurrents.info/wp-content/...0-Euratlas.jpg
Its, btw, quite revealing to see this old footage, showing American politicians in 2017 in Ukraine, in this clip from Tucker, watch especially from minute 5:50:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PC7DzTRS7A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PC7DzTRS7A
It really shows, just like in Syria, how deeply involved the American establishment was in this war from the start, not talking about the proof for direct intervention in the Ukrainian govermment, money going into the state and deep scale manipulation of the whole the country. The USA were the power which pushed the Ukrainians into this war. The USA made them unwilling for any political compromise with Russia!
The wording: "...dead Russian soldiers."
This was an obvious attack on Russian interests, on Russian people. Any claim about this being just "Putins war" and "Putin is a madman" is a cynical lie. Americans war, just like Syria, Libya, Iraq... Instead of helping the Ukrainians in a diplomatic compromise, they plunged them in a full scale war to hurt Russia. This was clearly irresponsible, inhumane and treacherous behaviour of the American establishment. Trump was exceptional in not pushing these unjust and dangerous wars at any cost. He faced the Russians too, drew red lines, but he himself didn't play confrontational to destroy dangerous enemies like these pseudo-Liberal and pseudo-Conservative maniacs, which, just like Selenski, betray their voters. If they would tell the truth, they would get zero support from the majority of the US population for their bloody adventures.
Once you throw the die, you can't take it back, as much as some scum here would like to reframe shit, dead children buried on frozen ground on the side of the road can not be excused. The die has been cast, there is no going back. Just have to wait and see how many dots the die has, and hope that face does not show a mushroom cloud.
Riverman, I take pity on you, as someone who benefits from the free world and drools at licking bloodied fascist boots from stepping on innocents you have lost any semblance of respect I had.
Now go on your whataboutism, I for one wont read it.
"Whataboutism" being only used by the Western establishment, mainstream and leftist extremists to denounce any argument they don't like, which would put their own claims in a proper frame. They do it all day in the true sense of this "word", but if the other side reacts, its all "whataboutism". Ridiculous.
Selenski planned the war with Russians anyway, that's a fact. He didn't care about the agreements made, he didn't care for peace negotiations and the USA pushed his regime into conflict with Russia. That's not "whataboutism", these are facts.
You can read it up in the papers of the US skewed UN organisations even, the attacks, the refugees, the non-compliance to Minsk I-II, the refusal to negotiate, the refusal of the international organisations to react to Russia's official complains etc.
Sure, the escalation of the war is horrible, but to blame it all on one side, after all these developments in the last years, is just biased propaganda. The war was inevitable, probalby the scale could be discussed, but that's it. A prolonged Donbas war wouldn't have been any better, wouldn't have brought any solution to the conflict either. Russia had to consider all options and Ukraine let them little other choice, unfortunately.
Blame it on the USA for pushing them so far and interfering in Ukrainian domestic and foreign policy up to this point, to weaponise the whole country against Russia.
And its also no "whataboutism" if someone points out what the USA do elsewhere, or not - because the Liberal hegemon argues with rules and principles, these are valid everywhere, for everyone, or they are not. There is no middle ground on this. Other states don't play the "moral judge", the USA does. Therefore they should be measured by their own standards and if doing so, they fail miserably. Therefore its all hypocracy and geopolitics, realpolitik. And the realpolitik behind this conflict is the US intention to destroy or at least seriously weaken Russia, the Russians themselves. Not just Putin, Russia. And yes, they want a regime change too.
The mentally deranged state of president Biden makes him say things he probably didn't even intend to do or haven't thought through properly:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilawKpTOvaE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilawKpTOvaE
Its good that Biden is in this "state of mind", at least he tells the truth in his mental condition, on what the US would like to do and how they think about other countries.
Nations which are stuck in this unluckly part of Europe between Russia and Germany - between the hammer and the anvil - must unite to survive.
The European Balance of Power was shaken when the old Rzeczpospolita disappeared from the map.
Our old Commonwealth, if restored, will become the third big power, between Russia and Germany.
Several small & weak countries cannot survive between Russia and Germany. Only a big strong country can survive in this unlucky part of Europe.
Of course I'm not talking about short-term survival - within our lifetime - but in centuries and millenia to come.
That's why we should follow Zelensky's advice - "together there is 90 million of us" - and restore our old Union.
plus Królewiec (temporary called: Kaliningrad)
https://www.islamtimes.org/en/news/9...n-general-says
https://www.rp.pl/swiat/art35950691-...kaliningradzie
For Poland this war can have only three outcomes:
1) Russia conquers Ukraine - in such case Poland will inherit Ukraine's role of being a buffer state between NATO / EU and Russia.
2) Stalemate and status quo ante bellum, future will remain uncertain (round 2 of the conflict will be inevitable), Ukraine will remain the buffer state between NATO / EU and Russia.
3) Ukraine wins and Zelensky's plan that "there is 90 million of us" becomes reality - our old Rzeczpospolita will be restored.
Option 1) is disastrous for us. Option 2) is bad due to uncertain future (in several or a few dozen years, Russia will attempt war again).
If Russia wins, Poland will play the same role as Ukraine did since 1991 until 2014 - we will be a pawn in chess game of great powers.
In case of 1) Poland will become an object, a pawn of international games of great powers, not a subject who also plays in the game.
We will inherit the status of Ukraine (which was just a pawn and an object in the game between great powers in years 1991 - 2014).
Outcome 3):
Closer integration between Poland-Ukraine-Belarus-Baltic States, reclaiming our old role as "3rd power between Germany & Russia" - is the best for us.
Some say that Russia is committed to moving NATO away from its own borders - and this is supposedly Russia's main goal. But the thing is, when Russia annexes Ukraine into the Russian Federation, they will directly border a NATO country - Poland. Which means that after Russian annexation of Ukraine, Russia will start demanding that Poland must leave NATO - in order to push away NATO from its new borders.
And Putin's goal is to annex Ukraine into the Russian Federation - perhaps as one of its autonomous republic (such as Mari El, Udmurtia, Kalmykia, Chechnya, etc.). Just read his July 2021 essay, or listen to his speech at the beginning of the invasion. This is his goal.
The most likely outcome at this point is that Russia conquers Ukraine up to the Dnepr and cuts it off from the Black Sea, making it a landlocked rump state. At this point, they will finally threaten Kiev, and threaten to lay it in ashes, which will be a major climax, which could led to the next escalation level.
Then it will be crucial if the Ukrainians finally agree on taking negotiations seriously. So it really looks like a demarcation line, cutting Ukraine in about half and off from the sea. Then there will be a truce, if the Ukrainians don't come up with a peace offer which is even remotely acceptable before. Kind of the Cyprus situation, which was pretty much the same thing in the Mediterranaen. But since it was Turkey, a NATO member and essential partner for the USA and Israel, back in the days, nothing was done.
The outcome most likely will be similar in this war.
Already Poland and Hungary made some demands, even if hidden, for territories they would like to have (back). I haven't heard anything from Romania, but obviously Romania would have potential claims too, like the Northern part of Bukovina in particular:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ia_Ukraine.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ia_Ukraine.png
Ukraine really was a cobbled together federal state of the Soviet Union between World War I and II. There really was nothing like that state, in its current borders, before.
In Transcarpathia, there is also the Rusyn movement:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RusynsQuote:
Ukrainian academician, doctor of historical sciences, head of department of National Minorities of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Institute of Political and Ethno-national research, May Panchuk explained that soon after dissolution of the Soviet Union and during the 1991 Ukrainian referendum, there was provided additional question for Zakarpattia residents only whether they wish to obtain a self-governed territory within Ukraine.[80] It triggered Rusyns to create their own political parties and movements.[80] Already in March 1992 the recently created "Subcarpathian republican party" published its program with first elements of separatism: create independent, neutral "Republic Subcarpathian Ruthenia" just as Switzerland; receive full political and economic independence; recognize Rusyn people as a full-scale nationality among other nations.[80] The party contained a well expressed Kremlin orientation and did not hide its connections with pro-Russians elements.
The core of the Ukrainian nationalism, the key group which pushes the issue against Russia, really is in the more Northern West of the country. That's the core Ukrainian territory, on this map in red:
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service...next&width=580
Elections of 2014:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...len_2004_2.png
Russia clearly concentrates on the Russian, at least formerly pro-Russian parts of the country. I think the West will only be attacked and occupied, even if the Russians could do it, if the Ukrainians don't stop to attack. They really won't march to Lwiw, unless they have to, even if they could, what they probably can't without heavy losses, but that's debatable.
I know the people in these Russian speaking parts might think not that much pro-Russian any more, at the moment, after years of conflict, indoctrination, all non-Ukrainian nationalist voices being silenced and this massive anti-Russian propaganda. But that doesn't matter, it's what the Russians just do right now, for the better or worse of things.
Everybody expects even stiffer and more prolonged resistance in the West, which just means even more death and destruction, even a greater risk of a bigger escalation. So basically nobody really wants that, but to prevent it, there need to be negotiations at some point.
You have to consider the distance from Russias core zones. It doesn't matter whether a friendly state is in between or its actual Russian territory. Crucial its not controlled by hostile elements, which the Selenski regime under US guide did constitute.
Its the same with the debate I had with Northerner, when I compared it with a broken marriage and the belongings of the husband being still in the house - or the house itself. Same here: As long as they were married, friendly neighbours, it doesn't really matter that the Ukraine ruled over Russians, that they controlled one of the most important bases.
It did matter, when they tried to run over to the sworn enemy, tried to become a member of a hostile club - hostile not because of Russia, but because they did exclude and hurt Russia.
Like Russia tried to get the same agreement Ukraine tried to make, with the EU. The EU declined, not giving Russia the same chance to participate. This led to the original escalaton in 2014: The EU offered Ukraine favourable treaties, but declined the same conditions to Russia. The Ukrainians started to revolt, when the pro-Russian president had to deny the agreement, to not make Russia stand alone and against it.
Once the marriage was broken, it mattered that some crucial strategical, economic and ethnic territories belonged to this cobbled together state of Ukraine. Before it was largely irrelevant, because they were friendly, cooperating states, the borders were open etc.
You see how Crimea would have been taken away from the Russians, and once they took control over Crimea, they could be cut off there, even the crucial water supply, not talking about the land traffic. That would be a huge problem in any conflict, in which the Ukraine would side clearly with the Western alliance. Its simply unacceptable.
A neutral Ukraine, which would still keep up open borders and traffic, recognise the Crimea status and Russian minorities, I mean for god's sake, they even tried to ban the Russian language from the official Ukraine's administration and state! Everything the Ukrainian regime, especially the Selenski regime, did, was completely unacceptable for the Russians, I mean Russians, any Russian which cares for its people and state, not just Putin.
There would have been so many ways to act differently, more conciliatory, but there were these US agents and Ukrainian nationalists which didn't care, which used rough measures before Russia started to get rough. It was all their fault and the Ukrainians even realised that, they voted for Selenski to come to peaceful terms with Russia. Instead he did the dirty job for the oligarchs and the USA!
To sum it up: Just look at the map of Ukraine, its ethnic, religious and political composition. A complete breakaway from the Russian sphere had to cause trouble. Strategically, the Ukraine border is too close and to long to be ever successfully defended if the situation with "the West" would escalate. So its kind of a preventive war to keep things simple and straight too.
The Dnepr border is defensible and ethnically more reasonable. Obviously the Russians will try to get Odessa and the Southern Russian territories too, make Ukraine landlocked. But that's entirely Selenskis fault, because he refused to negotiate, to come to terms. He would have gotten very favourable terms, even if he or the nationalists might not have looked at it that way. I'm not sure he will get the chance for such favourable terms again.
And to change that, from the American adventurers perspective would mean World War III, which is even more insane.
The best Ukraine could hope for was:
- promised, lasting neutral state
- accept Crimea
- guarantee Crimea land traffice and water supply
- accept Donbas autonomy, its departure to Russia
That was, by and large, the status before the escalation anyway, Ukraine would have just needed to accept it, and the West had to lift the sanctions. They refused, they prepared for a war in Donbas, already attacked the people there and proceeded in arming up, which led to this escalation.
Now its questionable whether the Russians will leave the Eastern and Southern parts of the current state of Ukraine, once they conquered it with blood losses. Because a land bridge to Crimea, for starters, is better than a guarantee for traffic and water supply which might be broken by the next Ukrainian government.
And if anything, a new Ukraine without the Eastern provinces will become even more radical anti-Russian, because its more reduced to the core zone of Ukrainian nationalism, than the Ukraine was in 2014 or even in 2021. To leave any Russians and pro-Russians in such a state, which refuses to make peace with Russia, won't be acceptable. Like I wrote before, the clock is ticking for Selenski.
A final note to the Ukrainian atrocities against ethnic Russians, pro-Russian activists and recently the captured Russian soldiers, but even before the captured Russian separatists in the last years: Again the mainstream media is not reporting like it should! Its the same as with the Islamic state in Syria, when they beheaded, tortured, burnt, mutilated and raped non-Sunni Syrian inhabitants on a grande scale, even posting videos of their gruesome actions! The West still blamed the Syrians for defending themselves from this aggression.
Here its the same, the evidence for Ukrainain atrocities is mounting, while Russians being blamed on "war crimes" and "butchery" for using regular military means to break the Ukrainian army's resistance. Its such a blatant hypocrisy, just disgusting! The torture and mutilate Russians, they laugh about it, film it and publish it, and the Western media and politicians say nothing! Blame the Russians for war crimes they didn't commit?!
It's a total shame!
And regardless what anybody says, there is no justification for torturing, mutilating and gruesomely, bestially killing Russian soldiers and activists. This sadistic frenzy, this lust for making people truly suffer is absolutely abhorrent. I know they were doing it in Donbas, but now they do it on a much bigger scale, even to regular Russian soldiers. No excuse for that kind of behaviour. And they are even arrogant and stupid enough to publish it. It's unbeliebale.
That will backfire on themselves, on Ukrainians which get captured by the Russians, on how the Russians treat them. They want a dirty partisan war, they might get it.
The worst part is that innocent Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, civilians, will suffer because of their actions. Because of what they do. But just like the USA, they don't care for people, for the consequences of what they are doing.
This is the country and military for which the West should start World War III?
Riverman,
This map shows a comparison of number of Russian-speakers vs. Ukrainian-speakers in the Russian Empire in year 1897:
1) Counties (districts) where there were more Russian-speakers than Ukrainian-speakers = brown color
2) Counties (districts) where there were more Ukrainian-speakers than Russian-speakers = violet color
https://i.imgur.com/alOgtsV.png
^^^
In Odessa District Russian-speakers dominated only in the main city itself. In rural areas and other towns of the District:
- 21,833 Russian-speakers
Versus:
- 86,616 Ukrainian-speakers
^^^ BTW as you can see even Western Crimea (Yevpatoria District) was more Ukrainian than Russian.
Here are the details about rural areas of Odessa District:
https://i.imgur.com/bUP9TT2.png
And in Yevpatoria District of Western Crimea there were:
- 13,345 Ukrainian-speakers
Versus:
- 11,107 Russian-speakers
=====
In neighboring Perekop District (north Crimea) there were:
- 11,743 Russian-speakers
Versus:
11,316 Ukrainian-speakers
So pretty much 50/50.
You know that maps from the 19th century looked different in many regions, just view at such maps from the German perspective of things...
Anyway, I always said that a neutral Ukraine, with Donbas & Crimea going to Russia would be a fair deal and the best Ukraine could hope for. Now they might get less, or we have a 3rd World War and its all because of Selenski and Biden allying up to hurt Russia.
If the election in the USA wouldn't have been that skewed, by this total media phasing and bias against Trump, if Trump would still be president, all of that would have never happened. Because he would have made clear, to this corrupt regime in Ukraine, that if they want to confront Russia, if they want to attack the Russians, they are on their own - and in Europe, besides probably Poland, nobody would have given them the kind of support they needed to feel confident they could stand Russia. The whole war would have been prevented.
But since Biden owed the regional plutocrats a lot, they saved his election by keeping their mouths shut and humiliating Trump, and by his personal hate on Putin and the Russians, he started this conflict. And finally, while he approaches the senile and even worse stage of mental capability, he speaks the truth, about his motives, the character he has.
If you listen to Trump at minute 2:00, he is the absolute voice of reason in this mess:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfEP3gbHPDc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfEP3gbHPDc
These maniacs just pressed the war against Russia and jeopardised Ukraine, ruined the lifes of so many. And they have the guts to blame it all on "madman Putin" alone! It's just so dishonest and treacherous. They started wars all along, for making "regime changes", and this will be the end of US dominance, because no country with a reasonable leadership, democratic or not, looks at this with anything else but despise, because you never know what the US cowboys do next.
They finished off democratic regimes often enough and replaced it with dictatorships! So not even that is the truth or something the USA did at any point of its history. Its all brute geopolitics, its about having vassals all around the world. And the world if fed up with this. The alliance against it is growing, because nobody wants to be the next victim of such a "policy".
Thank god that Biden is in this mental condition, so the world can hear it from his own mouth, from the head of the "Liberal Hegemon". No conspiracy, no hidden agenda, they spoke out, finally, so the whole world can see!
The Dollar Empire will gone in latest a decade, that's the final blow!
Germans were not majority in any county in Russia. The highest percentage was in Kamyshin County - 40.3% of inhabitants:
https://i.imgur.com/ofhVDTq.png
I wasn't speaking about Russia, obviously, but Central Europe, especially todays Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia and beyond. Northern East Prussia/Kaliningrad is the only actual "Russian" province which would fall in this category. But that's the past, we're talking about the present situation of things.
And fact is, the claim Ukraine had on the East was always weak and being primarily held up by all sides, because there were practically no closed borders to Russia anyway. If Ukraine would close up and block Russia, obviously this would change things completely.
You might compare it with the situation of Germans in Bohemia, Moravia, Czech Silesia and Slovakia. As long as these territories were Austro-Hungarian, it didn't really matter whether these territories were actually part of a German state or not, because they were part of a quasi German state anyway.
But when Austria broke up, and new borders were drawn, by the victors, suddenly these German speakers became minorities in their own lands, suppressed by a non-German goverment and suddenly it became an issue. Peaceful demonstrator got killed and imprisoned, the Austrian government blocked from any access to its former citizens. Same here with Ukraine, when they started to press on Russians under West Ukrainian nationalist and US influence. It was no issue before, when they were friendly states, when there was no suppression of the Russians and no threat to the state of Russia. But when Ukraine switched sides and became hostile and suppressive, things changed suddenly and completely.
They banned Russian as an official language, they imprisoned Russian activists, banned Russian movements, disappropriated pro-Russian activists, banned media and TV stations etc, etc.
The whole country got cleansed and purged by this Selenski regime, all this happened in preparation of their attack on Donbas, to phase society for the war. Russia just started first and escalated to the next level, but the current conflict was started by Selenski, who was voted by the Ukrainians to make peace with Russia - which he never even tried.
Fact is, no matter how anybody would draw an ethnic-political map of Ukraine and Russia, it would never be the borders of pre-2014. That's just a given. And if the Ukrainians switch sides, like they can do, I too think they have to right to do, but they have to make an agreement at the very least with the Russians, which respects their most basic interests and those of the Russians in the East. They did not, there you go...
Pre-WW2 borders in Czechoslovakia were not drawn along ethnic lines, because Sudetenland was given to Czechoslovakia.
However in Poland pre-WW2 borders were drawn along ethnic lines, and actually the Polish-speaking minority on the German side of the border (especially in West Upper Silesia) was more numerous than the German-speaking minority on the Polish side of the border.
Despite having such ethnically fair borders, Germany still wanted more Lebensraum and started WW2.