Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

The sinking of Moskva is the biggest Russian blunder by far to date in this war. To even allow that to happen in such a cheap way is almost beyond belief to anybody knowledgeable about these topics..

I was running simulations long ago involving ships of this class against other ships and aircraft. This is an ageing ship, it was designed to sink carriers and it was obsolete before the Cold War was over, as the Soviets built a bigger nuclear cruiser with better Carrier killer missiles, though still most of anti carrier Soviet power was carried not by the surface fleet but by the submarines. Soviet navy was about the submarines and surface fleet were there to serve them, even the Soviet aircraft carriers were there to support the subs.

Still though unmodernized it had plenty of power. Her role here was limited, with by now obsolete Bazalt missiles, and it had for its time good Anti air capabilities.

In Syria Russians used it for Air Defence and it seems here too. This ship has significant anti missile capabilities and cannot be taken out just like that. With 6 CIWS, with long range and short range AA missiles, even its main gun is capable of shooting down the incoming missiles. Apparently Ukrainians say they used TB2 to distract the defenses. But they must have fired at least 8+ missiles to score 2 hits. Also some mentioned storm disrupting the CIWS action. Also one has to guide them over the horizon.. I guess more information will be there in a year or so.

It wasn't capable of firing cruise missiles like some of those new frigates they have been using, so its role was mainly AA, but its a capital target, and a huge blunder waiting to happen.

I noticed on another military forum list of new Russian navy ships built during the time of Putin compared to oligarch yachts.

Quote:

---

• 2 Frigates 22350 (2x $450 mil.)
• 3 Frigates 11356 (3x $430 mil.)
• 7 Corvettes 20380/85 (7x $250 mil.)
• 2 LSD 11711 (2x $160 mil.)




Some yachts, same years:


• “Dilbar” Usmanov ($550 mil.)
• “Eclipse” Abramovich ($460 mil.)
• “Sailing Yacht A” Melnychenko ($425 mil.)
• “Ocean Victory” Rashnikov ($310 mil.)
• “Motor Yacht A” Melnychenko ($255 mil.)
• “Luna” Akhmedov ($230 mil.)
• “Quantum Blue” Galitsky ($225 mil.)
• “Black Pearl” Burlakov ($220 mil.)
• “Ona” Usmanov ($210 mil.)
• “Palladium” Prokhorov ($155 mil.)
• “Madame Gu” Skoch ($135 mil.)
• “Pacific” Mikhelson ($130 mil.)
• “Barbara” Potanin ($125 mil.)
• “Here Comes The Sun” Dzhaparidze ($125 mil.)
• “Tango” Vekselberg ($110 mil.)
• “Areti” Makarov ($110 mil.)
• “Kibo” Mamut ($105 mil.)
• “Alfa Nero” Guryev ($105 mil.)
• “Nirvana” Potanin ($100 mil.)
• “Anastasia” Potanin ($80 mil.)

(not a full list btw)

---

So Russians mostly built smaller surface ships. What Chinese have though is most impressive.


Some earlier comments about NATO provoking the Russia etc. That's just normal after the downfall of the USSR. US CJCS said not long ago "Russia is the only country capable of destroying the US" (due to nuclear arsenal). Many US thinkers are of opinion that no such country should exist.. China has much smaller arsenal though it has been increasing it.

But to sum it up. Putin tried to eat an apple that is too large. Replace the Russian invasion force with the entire French Army which is the most capable army in Europe, and would they be able to take over Ukraine? No. Put the entire British and French armies, same. You would have to add the German Army.
Ukraine had very good Air Defense capabilities with a huge number of S-300 and Buk systems.

What Russians didn't do and what they could have done is use far more the artillery. North Korea without the nuclear weapons is capable of causing massive casualties in Seoul with their artillery within minutes, which is something that has kept the balance on that border. Russians thought they were "liberating their own people", so any such activity was obviously politically unacceptable to them.

To score some win, Russians here have to take Odessa, and I don't see that happening atm. Far more likely is some Pyrrhic victory.. For Ukraine, they already did much better than anybody expected..

20 Russian generals have been arrested for defrauding (since 2014) 10 billion USD which were supposed to be used to prepare the Russian army for this war. Now this explains a lot about the combat performance of Russian forces.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ailchu

what you wrote here is just nonsense. ethnicity has less and less value as it should be, but noone is telling anyone to be ashamed. you just shouldn't place too much value on it. unlike in poland it seems.

and didn't you write yourself how racist and antisemitic the average german still is? how does that fit together with what you wrote now: "German men are ashamed of beeing Germans"?

---

Indeed the 'Poland alt right frame' of Tomenable in this posting is imo not different of that of alt right in Russia, France or the US (or elsewhere).

See for example:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ists-far-right

What is happening in Germany is exactly what the American anthropologist Earnest Hooton suggested in his 1943 article "Breed war strain out of Germans". He suggested that Germans have warmonger genes and to prevent WW3 you need to bring millions of immigrants to Germany and make them mix with ethnic Germans, thanks to which warmonger genes will be diluted and the "New Germans" will be less aggressive than the original ones.

German gov. is implementing the testament of Hooton. ;)

But at the same time Germany financed Putin's Army with Nordstream petrodollars.

Well according to Northener for example Poland is not ethnically diverse because Ukrainians and Belarusians are white so having millions of them doesn't count as diversity. In fact, for example a 100% Gambian neighbourhood is more diverse than a 25% Italian, 25% Russian, 25% Danish, 25% Romanian neighbourhood - according to the "diversity experts".

And a 100% female students university or a 100% female management company, is more diverse than a 55% male 45% female students university / management company - according to the same "diversity experts". :-)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tomenable

Well according to Northener for example Poland is not ethnically diverse because Ukrainians and Belarusians are white so having millions of them doesn't count as diversity. In fact, for example a 100% Gambian neighbourhood is more diverse than a 25% Italian, 25% Russian, 25% Danish, 25% Romanian neighbourhood - according to the "diversity experts".
And a 100% female students university or a 100% female management company, is more diverse than a 55% male 45% female students university / management company - according to the same "diversity experts". :-)

---

If you quote then quote well, I never stated that my friend! So don't put words in my mound, thanks!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tomenable

What is happening in Germany is exactly what the American anthropologist Earnest Hooton suggested in his 1943 article "Breed war strain out of Germans". He suggested that Germans have warmonger genes and to prevent WW3 you need to bring millions of immigrants to Germany and make them mix with ethnic Germans, thanks to which warmonger genes will be diluted and the "New Germans" will be less aggressive than the original ones.
German gov. is implementing the testament of Hooton. ;)

---

So I have had the luck that I was born just at the other side of the border Tomenable :kidding:- no warmonger genes- this sounds nonsense talk to me....warmonger genes huhuh:annoyed:

Well it can't be just a coincidence that when the Netherlands separated from the HRE you got exactly the border that you got. This line must be where happy merchant genes start to dominate over warmonger genes.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tomenable

Well it can't be just a coincidence that when the Netherlands separated from the HRE you got exactly the border that you got. This line must be where le happy merchant genes start to dominate over warmonger genes.

---

Hahah on the other side of the border -East- Frisia- they spoke until 19th century Dutch (in the church). Besides that warmonger genes is BS.

You don't plot with the Low Saxons, AFAIK.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tomenable

You don't plot with the Low Saxons, AFAIK.

---

No with (iron age) Danes so what....

I think aggressive behavior has more to do with psychopathy. They have aggressive behavior with low empathy. Of course everyone has shade of mental conditions. But there are other factors that control and balance people. Intelligence is one of them. People with high intelligence with higher than average proclivity to psychopathic behavior are probably great generals, but at its worst you get people like Josef Mengele, Putin, etc. People with low intelligence and higher than average psychopathic behavior are your comman criminals that fill the prisons, henchmen, etc. Of course not everyone In a population falls into these categories

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Northener

Indeed the 'Poland alt right frame' of Tomenable in this posting is imo not different of that of alt right in Russia, France or the US (or elsewhere).

See for example:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ists-far-right

---

Wasn't the "Poland alt right" once the reasonable resistance to Nazi Germany?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by firetown

Wasn't the "Poland alt right" once the reasonable resistance to Nazi Germany?

---

I don't think you need to be alt right to resist NAZI's, alt right has even many affinities with fascism.

And no I'm not one of those lefties who thinks "all bad" comes from the right.

As said more often I guess that it's more a question of moderate vs extreme. And the extremes 'touch and resemble each other in many ways'.

That said I don't get it when people use language of Putin against Putin ;)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jovialis

I think aggressive behavior has more to do with psychopathy. They have aggressive behavior with low empathy. Of course everyone has shade of mental conditions. But there are other factors that control and balance people. Intelligence is one of them. People with high intelligence with higher than average proclivity to psychopathic behavior are probably great generals, but at its worst you get people like Josef Mengele, Putin, etc. People with low intelligence and higher than average psychopathic behavior are your comman criminals that fill the prisons, henchmen, etc. Of course not everyone In a population falls into these categories

---

May be there different factors at stake. Psychopathy is one thing. I guess totalitarianism is very fund of dehumanizing and dehumanizing is the step to crush others, the sense for human dignity is then passe of course.

And may be Hannah Arendt has also a point with her banality of evil:
https://www.britannica.com/story/wha...nality-of-evil

And IQ is the least factor I guess, I know intelligent people who are beasts in human sense....and the reverse.
The NAZI top for example had not low IQ (still the other factors, like you mentioned, were at stake I guess).

They were:

Quote:

---

Dr. Kelly: “Strong, dominant, aggressive, egocentric personalities. Their lack of conscience is not rare. They can be found anywhere in the country, behind big desks deciding the fate of their nations.”
Dr. Gilbert: “Ruthlessly aggressive, emotional insensitivity, presented with a front of utter amiability (likeability). Narcissistic sociopaths.”¹

---

https://historyofyesterday.com/the-r...s-c3a5e442f37c

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Northener

May be there different factors at stake. Psychopathy is one thing. I guess totalitarianism is very fund of dehumanizing and dehumanizing is the step to crush others, the sense for human dignity is then passe of course.

And may be Hannah Arendt has also a point with her banality of evil:
https://www.britannica.com/story/wha...nality-of-evil

And IQ is the least factor I guess, I know intelligent people who are beasts in human sense....and the reverse.
The NAZI top for example had not low IQ (still the other factors, like you mentioned, were at stake I guess).

They were:


https://historyofyesterday.com/the-r...s-c3a5e442f37c

---

The Nazi leadership were high IQ and high in psychopathy for sure. The people of the Waffen-Grenadier-Division der SS were probably low IQ and psychotic.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jovialis

The Nazi leadership were high IQ and high in psychopathy for sure. The people of the Waffen-Grenadier-Division der SS were probably low IQ and psychotic.

---

We don’t have iq rates of SS members. What I meant to say is that Iq as such is not ‘a safeguard’ for dehumanizing others…..


Sent from my iPhone using Eupedia Forum

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Northener

We don’t have iq rates of SS members. What I meant to say is that Iq as such is not ‘a safeguard’ for dehumanizing others…..


Sent from my ****** using Eupedia Forum

---

I agree, there are other factors.

That particular division of SS was composed of criminals (murderers and rapists) that weren't expected to survive.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jovialis

The Nazi leadership were high IQ and high in psychopathy for sure. The people of the Waffen-Grenadier-Division der SS were probably low IQ and psychotic.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jovialis

That particular division of SS was composed of criminals (murderers and rapists) that weren't expected to survive.

---

What are you talking about? The Waffen-SS was a military unit. The main thing about it was that it not under the direct command of the Wehrmacht and that many volunteers from all over Europe were allowed to join. The Wehrmacht regular divisions were usually made up almost exclusively of German citizens.

There were, practically in all major armies, units of criminals or deviants, but this for sure doesn't apply to the Waffen-SS as a whole. For the regular units, the military training and discipline was harder, and they were better equipped. In the war they were used as "fire brigade", because of their mobility and efficiency. But this brought the units in the most dangerous of all spots with the highest losses. Some of the commanders were no professional military officers, or more fanatic and rather careless about their troopers. But that was also not a regular feature, just something more common than in the Wehrmacht.
There was of course a higher percentage of "political" people in these units, that's also sure, but more so at the beginning of the war, than in the later period, when the recruitment was expanded, the standards lowered. They were still higher than in the regular units usually (like for height, fitness etc.), but definitely no longer as high as they were before.

And all those "ethnic units" of volunteers, from all around the continent and beyond, being usually brought under the Waffen-SS, not the Wehrmacht command. So in the very end it was primarily an issue of command structure and where the recruits came from.

One of the more notorious units being this one:

Quote:

---

From the beginning, the formation attracted criticism from both the Nazi Party and the SS for the idea that convicted criminals who were forbidden to carry arms, therefore then exempt from conscription in the Wehrmacht, could be a part of the elite SS. A solution was found where it was proclaimed that the formation was not part of the SS, but under control of the SS.^[9] Within a couple of years, the unit had grown into a band of common criminals. Accordingly, the unit name was changed to Sonderkommando Dirlewanger ("Special Unit Dirlewanger"). As the unit strength grew, it was placed under the command of the SS-Totenkopfverb�nde (the formation responsible for the administration of the concentration camps) and redesignated as the SS-Sonderbataillon Dirlewanger.^[1] In January 1942, to rebuild its strength, the unit was authorised to recruit Russian and Ukrainian volunteers. By February 1943 the number of men in the battalion doubled to 700 (half of them Volksdeutsche).^[6] It became a Waffen-SS unit again in late 1944. In May 1944, the 550 men (Turkestanis, Volga Tartars, Azerbaijanis, Kirghiz, Uzbek, and Tadjiks) from the Ostmuslemanische SS-Regiment were attached to the SS Dirlewanger brigade.^[10]
Although other Strafbataillons were raised as the war proceeded and the need for further manpower grew, these penal military units were for those convicted of military offences, whereas the recruits sent to Dirlewanger Brigade were convicted of major crimes such as premeditated murder, rape, arson and burglary. Dirlewanger provided them with an opportunity to commit atrocities on such a scale that it even raised complaints within the brutal SS.

---

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirlewanger_Brigade

In the German armies (Wehrmacht and Waffen-SS alike), this was a true exception. "Funnily" Stalin like with the purge after the "Roehm-Putsch" in Germany took things literally and made it much bigger and worse than the Germans ever did in this respect:
https://www.jstor.org/stable/20750232

But penal brigades and stuff like that being known from many sides, in many wars. And they usually caused troubles one way or another, every time.

The Ukrainians now use mercenary units and volunteer units of similar character, I wouldn't wonder if some of the reported atrocities being more often committed by those too.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Riverman

What are you talking about? The Waffen-SS was a military unit. The main thing about it was that it not under the direct command of the Wehrmacht and that many volunteers from all over Europe were allowed to join. The Wehrmacht regular divisions were usually made up almost exclusively of German citizens.

There were, practically in all major armies, units of criminals or deviants, but this for sure doesn't apply to the Waffen-SS as a whole. For the regular units, the military training and discipline was harder, and they were better equipped. In the war they were used as "fire brigade", because of their mobility and efficiency. But this brought the units in the most dangerous of all spots with the highest losses. Some of the commanders were no professional military officers, or more fanatic and rather careless about their troopers. But that was also not a regular feature, just something more common than in the Wehrmacht.
There was of course a higher percentage of "political" people in these units, that's also sure, but more so at the beginning of the war, than in the later period, when the recruitment was expanded, the standards lowered. They were still higher than in the regular units usually (like for height, fitness etc.), but definitely no longer as high as they were before.

And all those "ethnic units" of volunteers, from all around the continent and beyond, being usually brought under the Waffen-SS, not the Wehrmacht command. So in the very end it was primarily an issue of command structure and where the recruits came from.

One of the more notorious units being this one:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirlewanger_Brigade

In the German armies (Wehrmacht and Waffen-SS alike), this was a true exception. "Funnily" Stalin like with the purge after the "Roehm-Putsch" in Germany took things literally and made it much bigger and worse than the Germans ever did in this respect:
https://www.jstor.org/stable/20750232

But penal brigades and stuff like that being known from many sides, in many wars. And they usually caused troubles one way or another, every time.

The Ukrainians now use mercenary units and volunteer units of similar character, I wouldn't wonder if some of the reported atrocities being more often committed by those too.

---

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirlewanger_Brigade

I said a specific division, do you know how to read?

"The unit, named after its commander Oskar Dirlewanger, consisted of convicted criminals who were not expected by Nazi Germany to survive their service with the unit."

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jovialis

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirlewanger_Brigade
I said a specific division, do you know how to read?

---

Looks like I need to eat those words, because I botched the post. I meant to refer to that specific division.

Nevertheless, the point I was making remains.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jovialis

Looks like I need to eat those words, because I botched the post. I meant to refer to that specific division.
Nevertheless, the point I was making remains.

---

An interesting point about it is, that originally, it wasn't even thought to be such a criminal unit, just poachers which might be skilled snipers. But then, once they made the exception once, all kind of legal criminals and foreigners being brought into this unit, preferably used for "dirty and difficult tasks".
Such things often get a dynamic of their own, like war in general. Which is the longer a war lasts, the nastier it gets usually. There are no clearn wars, but the cleanest ones are the short ones. Long wars, especially partisan style wars, get really inhumane on a new level, rather sooner than later. Peace is the only solution, especially in a case like this one, which was so unnecessary from the start.