Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

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Originally Posted by Riverman

I agree with the first part, but the later one not. The Chinese don't care for that woke brainwashing and pseudoreligion in the USA, which spills, unfortunately, over the Atlantic to Europe too. All that crap and nonsense, which undermines the Western societies. But its "homemade", has nothing to do with Russia and the Chinese, which, if anything, rather oppose it.

But China has a play in this conflct, not as big as the USA, quite obviously, but it was the Chinese alternative to humiliating West which brought Russia further away from other Europeans. They kind of offered an alternative, which Russia began to trust, so they didn't had to care about the disappointing and treacherous West any more. Like this is a different card.

And China was involved, both in Russia and Ukraine, big time. And they have no interest, whatsoever, of a weakened Russia or a totally Americanised Ukraine. Ukraine was a good partner for them, for India even more so, but not as important and more problematic than Russia.

The Ukraine conflict is the first conflict of the emerging blocks, possibly, and this became very apparent. If Russia fails without collapsing, which looks most likely at this point, after a "Russia is half-way victorious", but won't be accepted by the West as before, it will be even more dependent on China, that's for sure in both most likely scenarios.

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I think this will be the case. As Russia is already setting steps into a totalitarian regime just like China. And if Europe will succeed in to be less dependance from Russian oil and gas there will be less to share....

Chinese have also an interest in war in the Ukrain because of Tawain.

And to me 'woke' are 'hard boiled identity thinkers', more Gramsci (cultural) than Marx (materialistic). And they resemble very close the Dugin like types that's pretty obvious to me. Dugin and also Putin are woke (hard boiled identity politics) from the fare right:laughing:

^^Putin is not woke, or far-right. He is a Russian imperialist, that wants to emulate the Russian Tsars. Woke is a very specific thing. It is about identity, yes, but nothing that resembles Russian nationalism, or any kind of nationalism. If anything it kind of also confounds the sense of identity for minorities, who are actually more generally socially conservative than whites in the USA. Hispanics and African-Americans generally have right-leaning social norms regarding gender, sexuality, etc. I doubt hardcore nationalists from those respective groups would agree with BLM conflating LGBTQ groups with their cause. It sort of creates a catch 22 for them.

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Originally Posted by Jovialis

^^Putin is not woke, or far-right. He is a Russian imperialist, that wants to emulate the Russian Tsars. Woke is a very specific thing. It is about identity, yes, but nothing that resembles Russian nationalism, or any kind of nationalism. If anything it kind of also confounds the sense of identity for minorities, who are actually more generally socially conservative than whites in the USA. Hispanics and African-Americans generally have right-leaning social norms regarding gender, sexuality, etc. I doubt hardcore nationalists from those respective groups would agree with BLM conflating LGBTQ groups with their cause. It sort of creates a catch 22 for them.

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I know this. Nevertheless woke and Putin/Dugin touch each other in "hard boiled" identity. Identity-politics can also be part of ethnocentrist like Putin, Dugin etc They come close to the alt-right. They are certainly against LGBTQ kind of identity politics no doubt.

But that's not the point, this site explains it well imo:
https://quillette.com/2020/08/03/the...side-realizes/

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Until now, the personality linkages between authoritarian right-wing and authoritarian left-wing individuals was based largely on informally pooled anecdotal observations. This is perhaps the first time that the personality congruence between these two emerging groups—nominally progressive Politically Correct Authoritarians, and alt-right White Identitarians—has been studied systematically. And the results reinforce the social sense that many of us get from our most ideologically intolerant co-workers and social-media contacts: Notwithstanding their diametrically opposed political postures, both hard Left and hard Right seem disproportionately populated by individuals who are impelled to control others’ behavior, and draw attention to themselves.

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https://scottbarrykaufman.com/wp-con...ss-OConnor.pdf

News-election results and inflation.

Implications for Brussels, Ukrainian pro Nazi's,Zelensky, Soros, Western Media?
Viktor Orban declared victory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sccnFYf8Fo
Vucic declared victory. (side point-I still remember when the Chinese embassy was bombed-Chinese grievance)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcTXdDPj26U

European Inflation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b58R-6AC-PU

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/poll...nflation-soars

POLL-Polish central bank seen lifting main rate by 50 bps as inflation soars

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Originally Posted by Silesian

Viktor Orban declared victory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sccnFYf8Fo

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The first positive news in weeks. The German candidate being allied with Fidesz and the relations are good between the Germans and Hungarians in FIDESZ afaik.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imre_Ritter

Russia pipeline Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline. Changing customers from Europe to China.

Russia said it's pushing ahead with building a massive natural-gas pipeline to China as Western sanctions rock its economy


https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/world/news/russia-said-its-pushing-ahead-with-building-a-massive-natural-gas-pipeline-to-china-as-western-sanctions-rock-its-economy/articleshow/89925999.cms

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​Countries and trade blocs including the European Union, the UK, the US, Canada, and Japan have responded to Russia's invasion of Ukraine with sanctions designed to hobble Russia's economy.
The measures have targeted its banking system and trade, among other areas, and have led to a slump in the ruble, a huge hike in interest rates, and rising inflation.

But, crucially, the West hasn't banned Russian energy imports. Europe gets about 40% of its natural-gas supply from Russia and has continued to rely on it since the invasion started.

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Originally Posted by Silesian

Russia pipeline Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline. Changing customers from Europe to China.

Russia said it's pushing ahead with building a massive natural-gas pipeline to China as Western sanctions rock its economy


https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/world/news/russia-said-its-pushing-ahead-with-building-a-massive-natural-gas-pipeline-to-china-as-western-sanctions-rock-its-economy/articleshow/89925999.cms

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The European states will come begging for Russian gas if they cut it or if they are stupid enough to cut it themselves - and then expecting the same good conditions after the conflict hopefully ends. We are, that's a fact, whether we like it or not, pretty much dependent on Russian natural resources. Not just Europe, the USA to some degree as well, even if not as much.
But for Central and Central-Eastern Europe, its a real dependency which can't be changed just like that. There is no good alternative for at least the next one or two decades and any longer term alternative will still be worse and more expensive.

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Originally Posted by Riverman

The European states will come begging for Russian gas if they cut it or if they are stupid enough to cut it themselves - and then expecting the same good conditions after the conflict hopefully ends. We are, that's a fact, whether we like it or not, pretty much dependent on Russian natural resources. Not just Europe, the USA to some degree as well, even if not as much.
But for Central and Central-Eastern Europe, its a real dependency which can't be changed just like that. There is no good alternative for at least the next one or two decades and any longer term alternative will still be worse and more expensive.

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I'm sure this European fuel dependency on a genocidal regime will please a Russian fanboy like yourself.

If the EU kisses Putin's feet economically it deserves everything that's coming its way.

Most European countries have "daddy issues" anyway preferring a tyrant as a ruler to taking responsibility for themselves.

Do you hear guys what happened in Bucha?

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Originally Posted by Hoxel

Do you hear guys what happened in Bucha?

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Yes, its awful. Just like it was awful what the Ukrainians did in Eastern Ukraine to locals and to Russian POW. Its a dirty, cruel war, which is why it should be ended as soon as possible, because once they step up in the "retaliation scheme", things can only get worse. You know how this works: You do that, I do this, you do that, I do this...
In the end, they shoot and torture most prisoners, because hate and fear took over. But that's the kind of partisan war strategy the Ukrainians propagated, from the start, in the first days, like civilians throwing Molotov cocktails on Russians. Back then I said it should end as soon as possible, because they will enter a vicious cycle.

It was predictable, unfortunately.

Peace now and pressure on both regimes to take negotiations seriously for coming to a diplomatic solution. Unfortunately, the better the resistance works for the Selenski regime, the less likely they are to negotiate in a fair manner. At the same time, the Russians need to increase their efforts, because they at least need to close the gaps between Crimea and Donbas. In between is still Mariupul, still defended by the nationalist Ukrainian militias, which is why the fights are particularly hard there. The Ukrainians want to gain time, the Russians want to close that hole in their territory.
After Mariupol, I hope they will finally come to the negotiations table - they need to be pushed to it, both sides. If the US still tells the Selenski regime they can get everything, and need not to consider any Russian demands at all, this is the recipe for catastrophy and its the Americans fault.

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Originally Posted by Hoxel

Do you hear guys what happened in Bucha?

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Indeed and may it's a tip of the iceberg. The Kremlin frames this as fake news (with actors etc). Disgusting. This is genocide.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...rimes-12582047

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Originally Posted by Northener

Indeed and may it's a tip of the iceberg. The Kremlin frames this as fake news (with actors etc). Disgusting. This is genocide.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...rimes-12582047

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It may constitute a real warcrime and needs to be investigated, just like what the Ukrainian army did, but its nothing like a genocide.

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Originally Posted by Vallicanus

I'm sure this European fuel dependency on a genocidal regime will please a Russian fanboy like yourself.

If the EU kisses Putin's feet economically it deserves everything that's coming its way.

Most European countries have "daddy issues" anyway preferring a tyrant as a ruler to taking responsibility for themselves.

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Or a centralized state bureaucracy.

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Originally Posted by Riverman

It may constitute a real warcrime and needs to be investigated, just like what the Ukrainian army did, but its nothing like a genocide.

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It is.

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The main feature that distinguishes the criminal offense of genocide from those of crimes against humanity, war crimes, or other offenses such as unlawful killing is the requirement to prove that the perpetrator possessed “the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group."

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https://www.usip.org/sites/default/f...t2Section1.pdf

The Kremlin knows that. And therefore is eager to 'unmask it as fake news'.

Riverman is sweeping the Kremlin's back alley. In vain there is too much dirt...

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Originally Posted by Jovialis

They oppose it for themselves, duh!

They promote it for the west, you know their rivals?

Why else would there be thousands of bots doing exactly that from those countries?!

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It's like some people have never heard of intelligence agencies sowing discord and internal divisions as a part of foreign policy.

Also, it does surprise me how little some people know of countries not their own, all the while proclaiming they completely understand all the nuances.

I sure as heck wouldn't presume to analyze the reasons for certain political behavior in Belgium, or Luxembourg, or why Denmark is different politically from Sweden.

As for "WOKE" propaganda, it's worse in a lot of other countries than it is in the U.S. Britain is rotten with it, to the point where Piers Morgan, who, parenthetically, I can't stand, which is neither here nor there, had to come here to get a job. I used to like British tv series, particularly crime ones, but I just cancelled all my subscriptions; it's worse than our media. Nothing filmed in the last three or four years is worth watching because all of the casting was clearly done to hit some percentage figures, which are inflated beyond the actuality, btw. So, we're supposed to believe that in some isolated farming village in the wilds of Scotland half the people are Afro-Caribbean, Middle Eastern, or Pakistani. It's as bad as Netflix. Canada is also worse, and Australia.

I understand why it's non-existent in eastern Europe, where there is residual "actual" racism and extremely low numbers of non-white people, but I don't get why Germany is resistant. Maybe it's mostly Turks and they're not present in sufficient numbers or haven't organized enough to mount these kinds of campaigns? Or maybe they're still afraid? It isn't all that long ago that residences where they had rooms were torched to the ground.

France I understand, knowing the French. Also, I can just see the rioting in the streets by Muslims if French teachers went into the first grade and started explaining how women weren't women, and men who dressed as women could be women, and the differences between gay, bi-sexual, queer, "fluid" etc. or a second grade teacher "came out" to his class and explained his sexuality.

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Originally Posted by Northener

It is.

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You are ridiculous. Rwanda was a real genocide. Here it was, so far, an isolated case of a potential war crime, related to the incidences in the last weeks, coming from both sides (Ukrainian and Russian). Regardless of what exactly happened there, it needs to investigated, by an independent multi-national, neutral commission. Surely not just the Ukrainian secret service (SBU) or the USA.

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Originally Posted by Riverman

You are ridiculous. Rwanda was a real genocide. Here it was, so far, an isolated case of a potential war crime, related to the incidences in the last weeks, coming from both sides (Ukrainian and Russian). Regardless of what exactly happened there, it needs to investigated, by an independent multi-national, neutral commission. Surely not just the Ukrainian secret service (SBU) or the USA.

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The question remains if this is an isolated case, this remains to be seen. There are indices that's NOT isolated.

And every time coming from 'both sides'. That's really ridiculous, because it were civilians that were shot down, tortured, raped.

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Originally Posted by Northener

The question remains if this is an isolated case, this remains to be seen. There are indices that's NOT isolated.

And every time coming from 'both sides'. That's really ridiculous, because it were civilians that were shot down, tortured, raped.

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The Ukrainian government deliberately blurred all lines between civilians and soldiers, between combatants and non-combatants. Like you saw the videos some here posted with pride, which showed a mixed sex group driving by in a car and trying to burn Russians alive with a Molotov cocktail they threw at them. Or people in civilian clothes getting guns and tried to fire at Russians from a civilian building, without any sign of being part of the military or at least combatants.
Then we saw in the last weeks how Russian POW being tortured, mutilated, even killed and there are reports of ethnic Russian civilian victims, killed by the Ukrainian forces in the Eastern Ukraine (some reports not independently verified, coming only from Russian witnesses).

A war crime is a war crime, whether its a soldier or a civlian. Or do you think that helpless young men, just because they are POW, can be treated worse than animals? Tortured, mutilated and killed at will? If the Ukrainians do so, they just prepare the ground for hateful crimes they can the Russians accuse of later - like this one probably, if we know the background. That's the dirty partisan style: First mistreating, torturing, mutilating and killing the enemy soldiers, then using the retaliation, which will often hit innocent civilians, unfortunately, to induce even more hate and violence. That's why partisan style warfare is particularly ugly and gruesome, with this deliberate blurring of combatants vs. non-combatants and the gruesome treatment of POW.

In this case it looks like they tried to round the males up, and then we don't know what happened. Some said they tried to flee or resisted and attack the Russians, when they should have been transported away. Others might say they would have been shot anyway, because the frustrated Russians, which surely saw the images of their mutilated comrades too, got frustrated and wanted retaliation. We don't know what exactly happened there, at this point.
It looks to me, like a general war crime, committed by either frustrated and angry, or simply overstrained young soldiers, against at least mostly innocent civilian men. This would constitute a war crime, but surely no genocide.

It won't be the only such incident, it won't be the last, but as long as its not systematic and widespread, its definitely no genocide. If the Russians would have wanted to commmit a genocide, with orders from above, there would have been much more victims, many more reports and these being widespread in Northern Ukraine in particular. Which is the only region it would make any sense anyway, because the other regions the fighting takes place are mostly Russian and Russian mixed anyway.

The fighting soldiers however, to make that clear once more, are overwhelmingly West Ukrainians, especially from the nationalist faction, and foreign mercenaries, rather than local populations which need "to be broken" like you claimed last time for Mariupol, which is beyond ridiculous. Because these were at the start about 10.000 or whatever Ukrainian soldiers, many from nationalist militias, mostly from the West, which defended the area of Mariupol against first the local/Russian uprising, then now against the invading Russians. But its not exactly "a local resistance" by any stretch.

That would be like saying that the allies had to break the "local resistance in Normandy"... Local in the sense of military personnel being in that spot, but not from the local population (largely).

By the way, many volunteers come back and reported they don't want to fight in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion, because its full of criminals, psychopaths and sadists, and of course the fighting is much more brutal than anything Western war veterans experienced in the last decades.
This comes from mainstream media reports.

One said he was soon more concerned being shot in the back by the psychopaths in his unit than the Russians.

Example (German):
https://www.vice.com/de/article/y3v4...er-ukraine-ist

It's invaders who "blur" the line between civilian and soldier.

If you are invaded you are entitled to fire on an invader whether you are in uniform or not.

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Originally Posted by Angela

As for "WOKE" propaganda, it's worse in a lot of other countries than it is in the U.S. Britain is rotten with it, to the point where Piers Morgan, who, parenthetically, I can't stand, which is neither here nor there, had to come here to get a job. I used to like British tv series, particularly crime ones, but I just cancelled all my subscriptions; it's worse than our media. Nothing filmed in the last three or four years is worth watching because all of the casting was clearly done to hit some percentage figures, which are inflated beyond the actuality, btw. So, we're supposed to believe that in some isolated farming village in the wilds of Scotland half the people are Afro-Caribbean, Middle Eastern, or Pakistani. It's as bad as Netflix. Canada is also worse, and Australia.

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Well, I kind of prefer Korean series and movies before American or Western European ones, but even they get "infiltrated" slowly but surely. But the worst is the children's program. Even some very "traditional" children TV program being now hijacked and abused for obvious propaganda, in a specific case teaching kindergarten and elementary school children "transgender norms". This is a program which dates years before I was born, and it was, still is, quite informative otherwise. But now its full of propaganda, much more than it ever was. In the past it was much more about knowledge and experiences, age-based. Now they get (2nd part) transgender education:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sahbI8O7OA

And its being presented as if its the best thing one can do, like to motivate kids to do their own "outing", their own "gender reassignment". Like I wrote before, its ok for people to live as they have to, if having such an identity problem, but there should be no encouragement for people to destroy themselves, their physique and functional organs. Especially not for disoriented small children, which definitely don't need that kind of "education".

TV was always full of propaganda, but it probably was never as bad as it is now.

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Originally Posted by Hoxel

Do you hear guys what happened in Bucha?

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Mistakes happen, what makes Bucha( if it was not done by the Ukrainian Nazi's) different from all the death in Iraq; still no weapons of mass destruction evidence and inquiry by the UN. And look at the definition of barbaric and the reasons to bomb innocent civilians; textbook ethnic cleansing, either Balkans or Russians in Ukraine, and bombing of innocent at the Chinese embassy. Who gets to pick and choose and what about false flags?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLr3Zqc5yBo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WejYdT3Lof8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDUvYLHEJwE

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Originally Posted by Vallicanus

It's invaders who "blur" the line between civilian and soldier.

If you are invaded you are entitled to fire on an invader whether you are in uniform or not.

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You can't change the rules of war we have here in the occident since centuries. Actually, what you propose, is a criminal act punishable by the military. Some of the "victims" reported recently being shot court-martially. And while this may be disputed, as of now, its common practise throughout history.

Someone doesn't have to wear an uniform, because e.g. the forces of one side might not even have enough uniforms to begin with. But he/she needs to be recognisable as combatant by the opponent. Like e.g. by wearing a special hat or armlet. If not, its no regular, not even an irregular combatant, but may be considered a spy and/or terrorist and can be punished, according to many martial laws, by death on the spot and in any case is no regular POW.

If attacking from a crowd, of civlians, any such attack provokes retaliation and measures against the whole crowd, for which the perpetrator, the attacker which being not recognisable as a combatant, can be at least in part blamed for.

Imagine if a car full of civilians, including a woman, tries to hit you as a soldier while driving by with a Molotov cocktail, not recognisable as combatants, doing such a hideous terrorist attack, trying to burn you and your comrades alive. Obviously, the natural reaction would be, by the soldiers, next time a car drives by and the people inside are not clearly recognisable, you just blow the car up, civilians or not. Because you learnt from experience, that they might pose a threat, that you can't trust people which being clothed and behave like civilians.

That's what this kind of terrorism and partisan style "warfare" provokes. The killing of innocent civilians, because if a military can't trust civilians, they become targets, indiscriminately, especially males of fighting age.

And its the direct result of irregular, actually illegal warfare, which constitutes terrorism, or if being ordered from above, its a war crime. Because combatants have, always, being recognisable as such. Otherwise the opponent can't distinguish properly between combatants and non-combatants, and this can only cause attacks on innocent civilians. For which then, if they happen, not just the other side can be blamed, if this "style of warfare" being used systematically by one side. The protection of civilians is only valid, as long as they don't pose a threat to the military. Like if a woman or a child throws a Molotov cocktail to burn soldiers alive, they become combatants.

And if all people could act that way, and no fighters being recognisable as such, what will be the result? That's simple logic, and its also why, if you want to keep things half-way civilised, as much as a war can be civilised to begin with, you always do show combatants clearly - for legal and protective reasons. Not last the protection of the own civilians. Unless you want to provoke atrocities, from the other side, to blame it for it afterwards, to have an excuse for your allies to interfere.

This was the sole purpose of Selenskis message for civilians to attack the Russians. Because militarily, it has little value, won't change that much. But it will cause brutality and retaliation, which then can be used as propaganda. Its an age old dirty war game, this partisan style warfare. Its known for centuries and it never ended well for both sides, the people on the ground.

That is legal, he is recognisable as a combatant (flag and armlet):
https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images....7NBEMHGCOI.jpg

What they did was illegal terrorism:

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Ukrainians hurl Molotov cocktails at Russian tank from window of passing car in drive-by attack

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence encourage citizens to make the bombs

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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2025849.html

The Ukrainian regime encouraged terrorism.

The main result of such actions is, that the next time, the Russians learnt its better to blow civilians up, than letting them drive by, if they are not clearly recognisable. And the starting point was terrorist attacks like these.

If they would have been clearly recognisable as combatants, by having signals of the Ukrainian army, it wouldn't have been terrorism, but obviously they might have been blown up before coming close. But its this sneaky way of attacking which constitutes terrorism, and no regular, not even irregular warfare protected by international martial law. If being caught, they are no regular POW, but just criminals.

@Riverman

I repeat, if a foreign invader comes you are entitled to defend your home and family, even with lethal force, with or without a uniform on.

So, in your world view, if I don't wear a uniform I can allow my family to be raped or tortured by a foreign invader and my home gutted out. Marvellous.

Wow! Traces here of the invading German Army in 1914 and the un-uniformed Belgian franc tireurs executed by the invaders because they opposed the Germans or the French and other Resistance groups, without uniforms, in WW2.

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Originally Posted by Dobitocilor

Dementa Putinista reunita

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I don't know Romanian but I get the drift.

Riverman should work for Putin's propaganda department.