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The CHG shift is too strong, and it doesn't affect Bosnians and Croats, who presumably mixed with the local populations. So you'd need an influx of Anatolian women after the Slavs came to Bosnia.

Moreover, why would Roman Anatolians/Levantines have relocated to Apulia/Basilicata etc. where their signal is strongest. It makes no sense. The people who settled those regions must have thought it preferrable to live as poor mountain shepherds rather than stay in their previous homes.

Albanians are shifted towards CHG/Asia Minor. Selection doesn't explain this.

It's not drift, the ancestral components are different. You can test it with formal statistics.

We have Dalmatian, Pannonian and Montenegrin samples, none of which plot with Albanians. Future samples from Kosovo might, but I doubt it 🤷*♂️

@Angela, Ygorcs: I suppose the Mycenaean samples we have thus far have too much EEF. but if the Greek settlers came from a more exotic place (Asia Minor etc.) that could work, provided the Greeks managed to replace the previous inhabitants. I personally doubt this because to me it looks like...

I think the V13 expansion might be more associated with the eastern Balkans. Gotta wait for the Bosnian guy though.

The arrival of the Illyrians is usually dated to the Middle Bronze Age. Before that there's really no distinctive Illyrian material culture.

Only one of those three could be Illyrian.

How'd you explain the high percentages of J2 in Nakh-Dagestani populations?

They are close, but the Romans are more eastern when under the Balkanic hypothesis they should be less eastern. South Italy had well established BA cultures before the Greeks came, so the demic impact of the Greeks would have been diluted at least.

I used to be convinced that major Balkanic migrations reached Italy, but IMHO that's untenable considering those leaks. If Greeks and Messapians had a major impact there, modern south Italians and especially the Romans would be more northern and western. Look at the Adriatic samples we have...

I meant Anatolia Bronze Age ancestry, my bad. So lots of CHG and some Levant_BA + ANF.

Sorry, I meant modern Italians from Liguria, who seem to be very close to those northern Etruscan samples. I think the upcoming papers might not have any samples from the LBA/EIA, so that's a big blind spot. I tend to believe that the CHG that distinguishes present day southern Italians and...

I believe Baikal Neolithic is the oldest. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352409X16306927

I think there aren't many options. Either the Italics were northerners and imperial Romans as well as present day South Italians derive much of their ancestry from Aegean and Near Eastern populations, or the northern admixture is intrusive and came with Etruscans, Celts etc . How would one make...

Rumor has it that Tianyuan has been found to have had P.

I would say the center of the Roman Empire cluster lies right with the southernmost Italians. However, the samples are from north of Rome I believe, and many of them diverge towards Cyprus causing them to plot outside modern variance (in the blank space between modern Italians and modern...

Many Romans are south of southern Italians. Would Germanic admixture be sufficient to explain the subsequent northern shift? How much Germanic Y-DNA is there in southern Italy, 5-10%? Apulia: E: 22% J2a: 20% G: 15% R1b: 13% J1: 8% I2: 8% I1: 6% T: 5% R1a: 5% Basilicata: J2a: 24% G: 21% E...

The Celtic loans are found in Norse as well. That's why continuity doesn't work, imho. There must have been massive language replacement by a group that had contacts with the Celts. The Jastorf model explains this better.