Health New Coronavirus in China

Thanks Salento,
Thanks Jovialis,
Thanks Dagne,


Thank you all for the encouragement.

A small update: many traders and restaurateurs here in the north, especially between Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna (but there are also elsewhere) are deciding to spontaneously close the business even during the daytime, to limit even more the frequentation of people and - hopefully - make quarantine even more effective. If we wait for the provisions of the central rulers in Rome and their hesitations, there is plenty of time to get another three new epidemics...
 
Stuvanè said:
Thanks Salento,
Thanks Jovialis,
Thanks Dagne,


Thank you all for the encouragement.

A small update: many traders and restaurateurs here in the north, especially between Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna (but there are also elsewhere) are deciding to spontaneously close the business even during the daytime, to limit even more the frequentation of people and - hopefully - make quarantine even more effective. If we wait for the provisions of the central rulers in Rome and their hesitations, there is plenty of time to get another three new epidemics...
Click to expand...

Tomorrow will be a nice day, as crazily happy as one can imagine.
I dedicate this song with it's lyric of hope and faith in a better future to you and to all that are confined in the Red Zone.

Lyrics:

Tomorrow

Tomorrow
will be a nice day
as crazily happy
as one can imagine.


Tomorrow
with double force
up until it doesn't stop
Will reign


Tomorrow
there won't be any mystery
other than illusion
the king star is gonna shine


Tomorrow
the light
over everyone's will
will prevail
will prevail


Tomorrow
there will be hope
as insignificant as it would seem
it exists to flourish


Tomorrow
despite of today
will be the appearing path
that was made to follow


Tomorrow
even though some will not want it
will be for those who wait
to see the day shine


Tomorrow
defeated hate
softened fear
will be complete
will be complete


Video (Portuguese)

 
Duarte said:
Tomorrow will be a nice day, as crazily happy as one can imagine.
I dedicate this song with it's lyric of hope and faith in a better future to you and to all that are confined in the Red Zone.

Lyrics:

Tomorrow

Tomorrow
will be a nice day
as crazily happy
as one can imagine.


Tomorrow
with double force
up until it doesn't stop
we should take revenge.


Tomorrow
there won't be any mystery
other than illusion
the king star is gonna shine


Tomorrow
the light
over everyone's will
will prevail
will prevail


Tomorrow
there will be hope
as insignificant as it would seem
it exists to flourish


Tomorrow
despite of today
will be the appearing path
that was made to follow


Tomorrow
even though some will not want it
will be for those who wait
to see the day shine


Tomorrow
defeated hate
softened fear
will be complete
will be complete


Video (Portuguese)

Click to expand...

Great, Duarte ;)
 
I'm afraid of a bio weapon that is specifically designed to kill based on genetic profiles of certain ethnic groups. I think we should all get off this site, mabey even shut it down for a while.
 
Something is going on happening here,
simple maths give strange and very different resuts

Take a look at bellow,
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

now lets do the most simple math act,
find the mortality per infected, per country

Italy 0.062 %
Iran 0.036 %
China 0.038 %
Korea 0.007 %
Spain 0.021%
France 0.018 %
Germany 0.001 %
UK 0.016 %
Cruiser ship Diamond princess 0.009 %
Japan 0.017 %

Total 0.036 %

it seems that in some countries the death per infected is multiple to x10 and more, comparing others,
so either the virus is selective, or some data are tottaly wrong reports,

offcourse this needs deeper and better analysis,
But lets say comparing Korea and Italy, hm .....

Sweden 0/325
Norway 0/400
Turkey 0/0 0 infected !!!!


someone could also do stats and with population per country.
 
Edit
Aztec/Inca - off topic
Deleted :)
 
Last edited:
Yetos said:
find the mortality per infected, per country

Italy 0.062 %

Korea 0.007 %

Japan 0.017 %

But lets say comparing Korea and Italy,
Click to expand...

I don't know the other country.
Until 03/08/2020 8PM, 180,000 people was tested in korea, 42,062 people in Italia, and 7,200 in Japan.

Many health experts predict that death rates overall will decrease as the number of cases rises and the amount of testing increases. South Korea, which has
Click to expand...
tested more than 140,000 people, offers solid evidence for that prediction so far.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Stuvanè said:
If we wait for the provisions of the central rulers in Rome and their hesitations, there is plenty of time to get another three new epidemics...
Click to expand...

I am afraid that health official are very bureaucratic in many countries - in the US they really messed up the testing and now the containment efforts have largely failed there.
In Lithuania we have 3 confirmed cases so far, but it may be misleading because up until yesterday testing was done only for those who either 1) had symptoms and travelled to Italy, China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Iran or 2) had contacts with confirmed cases.

This is not a wise policy - saving on testing but risking to miss a large undetected outbreak. I was reading a story where a woman returned after visiting several different countries and falling ill with flu like symptoms but she could not get herself tested because her travel was not in one among the confirmed country list.

Besides, all who traveled to highly infected countries could take paid absence leave from work for 2 weeks for self quarantine.
This could have been a good idea, but it turns out that some people were abusing it - happily taking two-week paid leave for self quarantine and using it as a extended holiday period - going to restaurants, attending theatre, night clubs and so on. Our health minister himself overheard a couple in theatre's cloakroom talking that it is soooo cool that they can spend their time so nicely because of this self-quarantine paid leave and was furious about it.
As of 10 March the policy of paid leave for people who are not showing symptoms has been cancelled, because the list of countries with more than 1000 cases is just too long now, and it is considered too expensive for health care system to pay leave for all people who traveled outside of Lithuania. Besides, as it turns out not all people can be trusted to impose self-quarantine, unfortunately, and there is not way to install effective monitoring on in. Hopefully more testing will be done to prevent undetected community/hospital spread, and we will not have to wait until people start dying from pneumonia in hospitals and only then the testing will be done.

The good example how to handle the situation is South Korea and Singapore. According to Singapore's forecast, the economic effects of this coronavirus will be likely felt throughout the entire year. Which is way longer that most people in the US or Europe want to believe. So let's be prepared.
 
Recent research at a hospital in Brabant/The Netherlands has shown 4% of the employees have corona without knowing....
Bad news: this virus is fast and spreads under the radar.
Good news: most people experience no or light illness.
 
Northener said:
Recent research at a hospital in Brabant/The Netherlands has shown 4% of the employees have corona without knowing....
Bad news: this virus is fast and spreads under the radar.
Good news: most people experience no or light illness.
Click to expand...

it this is true and not an exception, it should re-emerge in China
 
Somehow I don't trust Chinese statistics. Even if it re-emerges, they would not show it, as it would be too costly economically and perhaps politically for the Chinese Communist Party. Only good news are allowed whereas the cases would follow the thresholds as "outlined by the party". On the other hand, I suspect that for many other countries/fractions within the countries see economic consequences as more important than people's health so there will be many efforts to disguise/distort the real numbers.

For instance, I read an article in Lt press which was written by a nurse from Lithuania who currently works in a hospital in the Netherlands. She warned about two weeks ago already that according to symptoms there must be many more infected people in the Netherlands compared to official statistics and that anyone returning from the Netherlands should be monitoring their cold/flu symptoms carefully.
 
Yetos said:
official reports
Korea right now, is 54/7755 =0.0069
Italy is 631/10149 = 0.0622

it seems like is not the same virus, someone could say.
from 0.7 % to 6.22 % the distance is very big,

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Click to expand...


But if we compared number of recovered people to number of deaths (outcome of deaths), the overall fatality rate is about 6%. (and 94% recovered)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-outcome

Supposedly it is because many mild cases went undetected, but I believe many deaths in China went undetected, too.
Regarding Italy's numbers - it is because many cases went undetected and got into statistics only when people were in serious condition in hospitals. In Korea they are proactive and their fatality rate will increase a bit with time (death occurs on average after three weeks since getting infected, not earlier)
 
Dagne said:
But if we compared number of recovered people to number of deaths (outcome of deaths), the overall fatality rate is about 6%. (and 94% recovered)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-outcome

Supposedly it is because many mild cases went undetected, but I believe many deaths in China went undetected, too.
Regarding Italy's numbers - it is because many cases went undetected and got into statistics only when people were in serious condition in hospitals. In Korea they are proactive and their fatality rate will increase a bit with time (death occurs on average after three weeks since getting infected, not earlier)
Click to expand...

could it be like
death papper write from pneumonia, organ failure, etc but not due to corona
or every suspected death --> due to corona,
in these cases we have wrong global data

Korea was infected before Italy
 
Dagne said:
Somehow I don't trust Chinese statistics. Even if it re-emerges, they would not show it, as it would be too costly economically and perhaps politically for the Chinese Communist Party. Only good news are allowed whereas the cases would follow the thresholds as "outlined by the party". On the other hand, I suspect that for many other countries/fractions within the countries see economic consequences as more important than people's health so there will be many efforts to disguise/distort the real numbers.

For instance, I read an article in Lt press which was written by a nurse from Lithuania who currently works in a hospital in the Netherlands. She warned about two weeks ago already that according to symptoms there must be many more infected people in the Netherlands compared to official statistics and that anyone returning from the Netherlands should be monitoring their cold/flu symptoms carefully.
Click to expand...

For me it shows that indeed the corona virus is spreading fast and under the radar. Nevertheless in a modern society shut downs are an ultimum remedium. I guess it's partly a question of individual responsibility to be kind of precautious.

And for the healthcare the public service it is a question of early individual containment. But as it is running fast beneath the radar some spread will be inevitable. If you want a total containment we have to walk around in astronaut suits I am afraid....

For the rest it's a question of a good standby for the vunerable and older people. The health care in the Netherlands is able to scale it up to 12.000 beds, that's on the scale of the US 240.000 beds, that can be prepared for the severe ill.

If things come above that level it's going to be critical......
 
Dagne said:
For instance, I read an article in Lt press which was written by a nurse from Lithuania who currently works in a hospital in the Netherlands. She warned about two weeks ago already that according to symptoms there must be many more infected people in the Netherlands compared to official statistics and that anyone returning from the Netherlands should be monitoring their cold/flu symptoms carefully.
Click to expand...

I am convinced that a huge number of people (many times more than officially reported in each country) are already infected but are mostly asymptomatic, or presenting only mild unspecific symptoms like fatigue and headache. I have heard a lot of people complaining of mild headaches over the last week. Not your typical headache, but the same kind of localised pain you have in your limbs and that comes and goes when you have the flu. I have also had this with fleeting aches in my hands and thymus.

In Lithuania we have 3 confirmed cases so far, but it may be misleading because up until yesterday testing was done only for those who either 1) had symptoms and travelled to Italy, China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Iran or 2) had contacts with confirmed cases.

This is not a wise policy - saving on testing but risking to miss a large undetected outbreak. I was reading a story where a woman returned after visiting several different countries and falling ill with flu like symptoms but she could not get herself tested because her travel was not in one among the confirmed country list.
Click to expand...

Most countries only test people with clear symptoms like fever and respiratory weakness. That is why Covid-19 gets underreported. It's not a bad thing. It means that the symptoms are too weak in most people to be concerning and also that the mortality rate is far lower than it appears. Obviously if only serious cases are tested, mortality rates will look incredibly high, when they in fact aren't. I doubt that Covid-19 has a higher mortality than seasonal influenza, at least in people under 60.

Most people who tested positive in countries like Germany, Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Norway were tested only because they were returning from skiing holidays in northern Italy, not because they were sick. That's why mortality rates in these countries are extremely low. At the time of writing these 7 countries had 3067 reported cases, but only 6 deaths (in Germany and the Netherlands). That's only a 0.19% mortality rate. The two dead in Germany were 78 and 89 years old. In the Netherlands, one was 82 years old and another one 86 years old (don't know the two others). Young people healthy enough to go skiing don't normally die from Coronavirus, and most don't even get really sick.

The number of deaths in Italy is unusually high, but Corriere della Sera reported (based on ISS data) that the average age of the deceased people was 81 years old (79.9 for men and 83.4 for women, but 3/4 of deaths were men).
 
I presume there were much more testing done in S. Korea than in the Netherlands, therefore it is safer in S. Korea now than in the Netherlands. Testing and tracking down contacts is the key for reducing the spread, instead of just leaving things as they are and then being surprised about new cases emerging out of nowhere/or finding that virus is spreading through hospital environment.

I also don't think it would be possible to shut down all countries in the modern world, especially if this coronavirus epidemic is going to last for a year for example. We just have to learn to live with it without causing to much risk to the most vulnerable groups in society.
 
Dagne said:
I presume there were much more testing done in S. Korea than in the Netherlands, therefore it is safer in S. Korea now than in the Netherlands. Testing and tracking down contacts is the key for reducing the spread, instead of just leaving things as they are and then being surprised about new cases emerging out of nowhere/or finding that virus is spreading through hospital environment.

I also don't think it would be possible to shut down all countries in the modern world, especially if this coronavirus epidemic is going to last for a year for example. We just have to learn to live with it without causing to much risk to the most vulnerable groups in society.
Click to expand...

I presume that testing is needed when there are concrete indications and or when it's obvious when you have recently been to corona hot spot places. I guess the crucial thing in being safe is that you get adequate care when needed......
 
I checked how quickly the virus spread in each country (all the cases are neatly reported with timelines for each country on Wikipedia). It takes between 6 and 11 days for the number of cases to be multiplied by 10. A few examples:

Iran : 6 days to pass from 90 to 900 cases, then 11 days to pass from 900 to 9000 cases
Italy : 8 days to pass from 150 to 1500, and 11 days to pass from 1000 to 10000 cases.
France : 8.5 days to pass from 100 to 1000 cases
Spain : 8 days to pass from 120 to 1200 cases
Germany : 9 days to pass from 110 to 1100 cases
Switzerland : 7.5 days to pass from 40 to 400 cases
Belgium : 6 days to pass from 23 to 230 cases
Netherlands : 7.5 days to pass from 50 to 500 cases
Sweden : 7 days to pass from 50 to 500 cases
UK : 8.5 days to pass from 45 to 450 cases
USA : 7 days to pass from 100 to 1000 cases

As of today, there about 22,500 reported cases in Europe and 1000 in the USA. If the diffusion speed is sustained, there should be over 200,000 cases in Europe by 19 March, 2 million cases by 27 March and 20 million by 4 April. If we consider that only a fraction of cases get reported (only the minority with moderate to severe symptoms), it is reasonable to assume that most of the European population will have been infected by the end of April, although most people won't even notice it.

The pandemic started later in the USA, so by the same calculation we would have 10,000 officially reported cases by 19 March, 100,000 by 27 March, 1 million by 4 April, 10 million by 11 April and 100 million by 19 April (although I very much doubt that the authorities are going to test millions of people considering the costs and how 90% of people only get mild symptoms). In any case, by the end of April I suspect that the virus will have spread around most of the population in Europe and North America.

Since China cannot afford to keep its people self isolated for months, the virus will start again spreading once people go back to work/school.
 
Angela said:
Actually, what Italy is doing is exactly what the WHO and other experts are saying SHOULD be done. It's not panic; it's prudence.

"@WHO
#Covid19 mission chief Bruce Aylward says it's not clear other countries have learned the lesson that containment measures have to be put in place quickly & aggressively."

So I guess the WHO is in a state of panic too?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic.html

"It’s now clear that the epidemic was never going to be contained. At most, its spread was slowed by the lockdown imposed in China and other countries’ efforts to identify infected people and anyone they might have been in contact with."

Slowing the spread gives hospitals time to prepare and scientists time to work on a vaccine.

"Governments should also conduct Covid-19 preparedness drills in local hospitals and expand hospitals’ temporary capacity, for example, by setting up emergency tents in parking lots, as is already happening in some places in the United States. To minimize the strain on overstressed acute-care hospitals, supportive nursing care might have to be provided, in makeshift facilities and patients’ homes, as was done during severe pandemics in the past, such as the Great Influenza of 1918-19."

"In light of the disease’s features, the quarantine of the passengers and crew members on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Yokohama Bay in Japan looks like a cruel experiment: While confined, these people were forced to breathe recycled air for two weeks. The measure achieved little except to prove just how effective the virus is at spreading. Trying to stop influenza-like transmission is a bit like trying to stop the wind."

It's apparently a fecal wind in some cases:

"Nicholas A. Christakis
@NAChristakis
· 14h
COVID-19 may have both respiratory and fecal transmission: While a sneeze by someone with a respiratory disease can only infect others within a few meters, virus-laden gaseous plume from infected person with diarrhea can infect others up to 200 meters."
Click to expand...

I am wondering if you still believe that Italy was prudent....


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