That timeframe for J-Z597 expansion into western Balkans may actually be right on. Expansions to a different region usually happen a few hundred years after the TMRCA lived (ex. I-Y3120 TMRCA and the expansion to the Balkans).
Interesting. I read about these parallels between Maros and Posusje elsewhere too. On a different forum, user Pribislav elaborated about these parallels including Polada in north Italy, Sardinia, and J-L283:
"I'm not saying Pannonian tribes, and some other tribes from the northwestern part of the Balkans (Liburnians, Japodes) weren't Illyrian, or at least Illyrian-related, I just wanted to point out that the bulk of Illyrian tribes we know from historical sources stem from the "core" Illyrian area in the mountanious regions of the western Balkans, which was almost unaffected by the Urnfield expansions. In fact, those core regions had practically uninterrupted ethnocultural (and likely ethnogenetic) development from the earliest phases of the Middle Bronze Age all the way to the Roman conquest of Illyricum. So while I don't dispute that Pannonian tribes, Liburnians and Japodes were affected by Urnfield (it's a fact, proven by numerous archaeological findings), it is clear that the dominant ethnic element among Illyrians as a whole wasn't derived from Urnfield, and is in fact much more ancient.
Illyrian ethnogenesis started long before Urnfield, with the earliest phase (pre-proto-Illyrian) beginning in the latest phase of EBA and/or earliest phase of MBA (roughly 1900-1700 BC). This period is characterized by the appearance of new distinctive elements in the archaeological record of the East Adriatic coast, coming from the north/northwest, which resulted in the formation of new archaeological culture, called Posuška or Dinarska culture. Some of these new elements had their closest parallels in the Northern Italy (Polada culture) and Pannonian basin (Nagyrev and related cultures), as has been pointed out by Blagoje Govedarica. For example:
B. Govedarica; Early Bronze Age in the East Adriatic; p.165-166
Handles of the "anse ad ascia" type are best documented in the Apennine Peninsula and in southeastern France. Their mass appearance has been linked to the proto-Apennine culture ("Protoapenninico B"), the dating of which is not fully resolved, but is most often placed in the period corresponding to the younger phase of the Early Bronze Age in the South German chronology, that is stage Br. A2. In this sense, especially indicative is the typological development of "ansa ad ascia" in the territory of Sardinia and northern Italy, established by M. Ceccanti. In his opinion, this type of handle evolved from "ansa a gomito" of the Bell Beaker-pre-Bonnanaro type, and he distinguishes the following three phases in its development:
- The first phase (type 1) corresponds to the handles of the "gomito" shape, which are present in Sardinia, as well as in the sites of the Polada culture in Trentino area and in the wider area of northern Italy.
- The formation of the "ascia" shape (type 2) occurs in the following developmental stage. According to Ceccanti, it is a time of the developed Polada culture, i.e. the end of Early Bronze Age and transition to the Middle Bronze Age.
- The third type of "ax-like" handle ("canonico" type) with a large extension, already belongs to the Middle Bronze Age.
Presented evolution of ax-like handles is in agreement with the previous dating by M. A. F. Delpino and other Italian authors, where it is presented as a typical product of development within the Western Mediterranean cultural circle. Specimens found in the area of Posuška/Dinarska culture correspond best to Ceccanti's type 2, and within it not to the Sardinian, but to the northern Italian variant, found at the sites of Palidoro, Scoglietto and others. Individual "pseudobrassarda" findings from the territory of Posuška/Dinarska culture also have their best analogies in the late Polada culture of northern Italy.
During the first phase of the Posuška/Dinarska culture, we are seeing for the first time elements which indicate a stronger connection of the lower Adriatic area with the wider Balkan hinterland and Pannonia. In this sense, particularly indicative are flat-botom vessels, with short curved neck and four banded handles, which were found in the tumuli at sites Rupe near Skradin and Đelalije near Šibenik. Vessels of this type were very numerous within the Nagyrev culture. The closest analogies to vessels found in the area of Posuška/Dinarska culture were found in the Mokrin necropolis, where this type lasted for a very long period. Analogies found in the area of Hatvan culture should also be mentioned, where these forms are considered as a typical Nagyrev element.
It's almost uncanny how some already published aDNA samples support archaeological findings mentioned above. We have:
- J2b2a-L283 sample from Posuška/Dinarska culture, dated 1631-1521 BC (Veliki Vanik in modern Croatia)
- several J2b2a-L283 samples from Sardinia dating to the Nuragic period (1400-1000 BC), which developed from the earlier Bonnanaro culture, which was in turn (at least partially) developed from the Polada culture of Northern Italy
- J2b2a-L283 sample from the Mokrin necropolis, dated 2100-1800 BC, belonging to Maros/Perjamos culture, which was developed from the earlier Nagyrev culture
I would argue that even proto-Thracian ethnogenesis started several centuries before Urnfield. Just as the dominant ethnic element of proto-Illyrians ultimately originated in the EBA Pannonia and/or Northern Italy, the dominant ethnic element of proto-Thracians and their distant cousins proto-Daco-Moesians ultimately most likely originated in the post-Catacomb cultural area in the western Pontic Steppes (Babino, Noua, Monteoru, Coslogeni, Gava, Sabatinovka cultures). Both proto-Thracians and proto-Daco-Moesians were strongly influenced by proto-Iranian tribes of the Srubna culture. That's why many authors argue Thracian language belonged to the satem group, or was at least partially satemized. And in the end, that's why the expression Thraco-Cimmerian was introduced in the first place."