How did I2a-Din get to the Balkans?

How did I2a-Din get to the Balkans?


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Far as I know I2a type of haplotype which Croats have do not come from south Sweden to south Poland...Maybe someone knows differently and denied me ... it would mean that I2a could not be Gothic...

Pretty much this. There's no evidence of I2a-Din having spread from the Gothic homeland. I know that the location of the Gothic homeland is controversial, but under any best-guess I've seen, I2a-Din still isn't quite within range. I2a-Din's current distribution also doesn't match the spread of Goths very well. Why is it common among East Slavs, but not within former Visigothic territories?
 
And if I2a Din is not Gothic, then where should we search for Gothic haplogroup in us? I'm pretty sure they weren't I1, because most of I1 here is P109, and has strange value of STR481=0. Man on Sicily was found with that same value, and Nordtvedt thinks he has common ancestor in last 900 years with our I1's, so it must be Normans of Robert Guiscar (our king married his daughter) brought it, not Goths. Prehistoric continuity theory is outdated anyways, so I see only potential carriers in Goths, and also Bastarnae maybe...

Are you saying that most I1 in the Balkans is L22>P109? That doesn't sound right, do you have a link? From what I've seen, most I1 in the Balkans, or at least an unusually high percentage of it (I don't have precise numbers handy), is I1-Z63. Although I'm not familiar with the case of L22>P109 STR481=0 in the Balkans, I1-Z63 is fairly common there, it makes up a significant subset of the ~6% of people there who carry I1, and it has an eastern-leaning but still Germanic-looking distribution among I1 subclades. Altogether, I think that I1-Z63 in the Balkans is a reasonable place to start looking for Gothic influence in Balkans Y-DNA.
 
Let's clear out something- it is thought that Croats came from "White Croatia" because of great number of same toponyms. Czech and Polish historians like to negate existence of White Croatia. With Montenegro it is different story, our proto-homeland is thought to be northern and western Poland and also in Germany from both sides of river Elbe, because they found about hundred of same toponyms on Elbe like we today can find here. However, that would also mean that we should have fairly similar genetic makeup with Slavs who remained there, that is with Sorbs. Then why do they have about 65 percent of R1a, while we have under 10 percent of R1a? Maybe it is because those toponyms weren't spread with Slavs, because that was former land of Goths...
I think those toponyms are misleading and shouldn't be used so much in historiography.

Pretty much this. There's no evidence of I2a-Din having spread from the Gothic homeland. I know that the location of the Gothic homeland is controversial, but under any best-guess I've seen, I2a-Din still isn't quite within range. I2a-Din's current distribution also doesn't match the spread of Goths very well. Why is it common among East Slavs, but not within former Visigothic territories?
Are you actually aware about how Goths migrated? They migrated from what is today northern Poland (Gothic homeland pretty much) to Black Sea coast of Ukraine. After that when Huns pushed them they moved to areas south of river Danube in 370's- read part from book of Jordanes about it and you will find that they settled mostly in what is today Bosnia and surrounding states. And doesn't spread of I2a Din represent it? Nordtvedt located start of I2a Din and its splitting from I2a "Isles" and "Disles" in northern Poland 2500 years ago- and we all know this is long, long time before Slavs settled in, and that only known people which lived there were Goths. Now many say oldest homeland of Goths is Scandinavia and we don't know if we should trust Jordanes fully. But since proto-homeland of all Germanic peoples is Scandinavia they probably came to Poland from there, but much earlier than thought before, most suspect like in 750BC. Tacitus records only Poland as their homeland. Nordtvedt also said that "current spread of I2a Din is result of sudden expansion that happened possibly around 2000 years ago". So it started in Poland- where we today can see like 10 percent of I2a Din, they to Black Sea, where concentration increases, and finally they come to Dinaric alps where biggest concentration is.
You ask, how can I2a Din be present in eastern Slavs? Simply because part of Goths was actually subdued by Huns and remained on Ukraine Black sea coast- even Gothic dialect was spoken there until the 18th century (see Crimean Gothic). And about former Visigothic territories, we see that I1 (which you think is Gothic) and I2a Din are pretty much equal, or maybe I think I2a Din is even more numerous. It is also why you don't find so much I2a Din in Italy- because since early times Goths were settled in west Balkans and their expansion to Italy and Spain is result of only war conquest, not really settling. But I2a Din in Italy and Spain is still there in sizeable quantity. Also Sardinia was last settled by Vandals (east Germanic also) and it contains large amount of I2- although it is different from Dinaric one.
And let's go by logic- if all other I groups are Germanic (for example I1, I2b, I2a "Isles" and "Disles" which are closest to Dinaric), then how I2a Din is not?


Are you saying that most I1 in the Balkans is L22>P109? That doesn't sound right, do you have a link? From what I've seen, most I1 in the Balkans, or at least an unusually high percentage of it (I don't have precise numbers handy), is I1-Z63. Although I'm not familiar with the case of L22>P109 STR481=0 in the Balkans, I1-Z63 is fairly common there, it makes up a significant subset of the ~6% of people there who carry I1, and it has an eastern-leaning but still Germanic-looking distribution among I1 subclades. Altogether, I think that I1-Z63 in the Balkans is a reasonable place to start looking for Gothic influence in Balkans Y-DNA.
I don't know for northern parts of Yugoslavia, but in southern Bosnia, Herzegovina and Montenegro most of people that are I1 are I1 p109 with STR481=0. It is also called "Drobnjak clan cluster" because it was first found among 7 men from that clan. Other I1 can also be results from any other Germanic tribes, or from large number of German miners that settled here in medieval times, not just from Goths, which I already explained. Anyways our medieval sources mostly tell us of Gothic origin of people of this area.
IMO I think I2a Din is spread with Goths- but I would like to hear other's opinions on this subject.



Of those Croatian - Gothic loan words, how many are Croatian and how many Common Slavic? Are there any words present only in Croatian or at least only in South Slavic? Knowing Russian I notice quite a few cognates.
Yes, many words are only present in Croatian (by that I mean also in Bosnia, Montenegro and most of Serbia). Many actually look like Slavic but they are not- for example our word "vrijedan": in Russian -vredniy means harmful, while in our language vrijedan means worthy, which is same as Gothic wairthan. MOST of the words mentioned above are not common Slavic and are present ONLY in our language. I should add that some other words which are now "common Slavic" are actually spread to Slavic languages because of Old Church Slavonic and spread of Christianity, because it spread from south Slavic (linguistically speaking) lands to other Slavic ones.
As I mentioned there are many Slavic words in our language with totally different meaning in other languages: Russian word for diarrhea in our language means "pride" :)
 
With Montenegro it is different story, our proto-homeland is thought to be northern and western Poland and also in Germany from both sides of river Elbe,

What this have to do with the genes today's population of Montenegro ..

If Montenegrins have haplotype I2a1b2a1a3 A356 / 16983 and probably they have, the majority or half Montenegrins coming from White Croatia because there is a source of I2a1b2a1a3 haplotype...


Slavs who remained there, that is with Sorbs. Then why do they have about 65 percent of R1a, while we have under 10 percent of R1a?

Sorbs have R1a M458 and Croats R1a Z280....That there was a migration from area of Lusatian Sorbs to the Balkan that would be visible in our genes.....Therefore there is no migration outside the White Croatia to the Balkan and to Croatia...
 
According Underhill et al Croats have M458 as their main R1A clade.
 
What this have to do with the genes today's population of Montenegro ..
If Montenegrins have haplotype I2a1b2a1a3 A356 / 16983 and probably they have, the majority or half Montenegrins coming from White Croatia because there is a source of I2a1b2a1a3 haplotype...
Sorbs have R1a M458 and Croats R1a Z280....That there was a migration from area of Lusatian Sorbs to the Balkan that would be visible in our genes.....Therefore there is no migration outside the White Croatia to the Balkan and to Croatia...
Well it has to do because that is what our official history tells us: that we are descended from Elbe Slavs and it's clearly wrong. R1a is only present in our northern areas, northern Croatia (Slavonija), northern Bosnia (Posavina) and northern Serbia (Vojvodina), again I say, because Slavs only settled in regions that are good for agriculture. Serbian medieval state of Raska was Slavic (R1a) too but they quickly migrated to north after Ottoman conquest and their lands were settled by I2a Din carriers. As I said if I2a Din originated in Poland 2500 years ago it is impossible that it is Slavic. Pattern of its distribution fits Gothic migrations perfectly.
 
According Underhill et al Croats have M458 as their main R1A clade.


Most Croatians have R1a Z280 CTS3402.....

https://www.familytreedna.com/public/dinaric_alps_dna/default.aspx?section=ymap



Lusatian Serbs and Croats are there in the adjacent columns from which it is clear that these two people have a very different distribution of branches haplogroup R1a.

Croats haplogroup R1a represented almost exclusively by the Central Eurasian subclade Z280 (as in the eastern Slavs and the Carpathians)

Apparently the White Croats and Croats from the Carpathian Mountains to the Adriatic they are related people. About Lusatian Sorbs and Danube Serbs can not be said - they were too different lineage...

Translation from Russian .... answer to the question ... I. Rozhansky 2013/10/18 geneticist and expert for R1a haplogroup

http://pereformat.ru/2013/10/kolybel-evropejskoj-civilizacii/
 
Well it has to do because that is what our official history tells us: that we are descended from Elbe Slavs and it's clearly wrong. R1a is only present in our northern areas, northern Croatia (Slavonija), northern Bosnia (Posavina) and northern Serbia (Vojvodina), again I say, because Slavs only settled in regions that are good for agriculture. Serbian medieval state of Raska was Slavic (R1a) too but they quickly migrated to north after Ottoman conquest and their lands were settled by I2a Din carriers. As I said if I2a Din originated in Poland 2500 years ago it is impossible that it is Slavic. Pattern of its distribution fits Gothic migrations perfectly.


Serbian scientist Milos Bogdanovic in the book Curse of Nations from 2004, clearly states that in medieval Serbian capital Ras in more than half skeleton of the medieval Serbs is blood type B, which is the Avar and Hun origin, which means that the Serbs originally an Avar group ...



Serbian scientist Miloš Bogdanović, book Curse of Nations, 2004.


The skeletons of the medieval Serbian capital Ethnicity 0 blood type is represented only in 13.9% of the skeleton, which is drastically less than 42% as much as we meet in the population of Kosovo at mid-century. This means that in the ninth and tenth century Serbs were very few mixed with Dinarics and Mediterraneans characterized by 0 blood group, while they were very mixed with the Avars. In fact, almost every second skeleton was found in the Ras, had a gene for blood type B, either inherited only from one, either of both parents.


As I said if I2a Din originated in Poland 2500 years ago it is impossiblethat it is Slavic.


How is impossible when over there all types of R1a haplotypes are in the most-percentage through thousands of years ... and Croatian type I2a is in the center ...I'm not saying that I2a which Croats have is originally Slavic but in this area is with the Slavs several thousand years.... and if they are in alliance with R1a haplotype arrived in Croatia apparently they arrived as Slavs...


Is I2a before 5000 years was Gothic, Germanic, Turkish it has nothing to do with arrival of Croats as Slavs, perhaps early speakers of R1a did not speak Slavic and perhaps they felt as Turkmens ..who knows ...it has nothing to do with their present Slavic origin...
 
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However, that would also mean that we should have fairly similar genetic makeup with Slavs who remained there, that is with Sorbs. Then why do they have about 65 percent of R1a, while we have under 10 percent of R1a?

I think there are a few factors that are potentially at play, but above all, it's important to keep in mind that relative haplogroup percentages do not tend to stay the same over long periods of time, especially when we're talking about an expanding population. I mean, the same argument could be made against the Goths, asking where all the R1b-U106 and I1 went. But either way it's not as strong of an argument as one based on the phylogenetic patterns of the clade in question.

Are you actually aware about how Goths migrated? They migrated from what is today northern Poland (Gothic homeland pretty much) to Black Sea coast of Ukraine. After that when Huns pushed them they moved to areas south of river Danube in 370's- read part from book of Jordanes about it and you will find that they settled mostly in what is today Bosnia and surrounding states. And doesn't spread of I2a Din represent it?

Not quite, it's backwards--the diversity pattern of I2a-Din looks more like Ukraine>Poland>Balkans, not Poland>Ukraine>Balkans. You might be able to argue for Poland>Ukraine>Poland>Balkans if we include the outlier I2a-"Dinaric cousin" (Wojtowicz) subclade, but that's some thousands of years earlier in the picture.

Nordtvedt located start of I2a Din and its splitting from I2a "Isles" and "Disles" in northern Poland 2500 years ago-

...I'll stop you right there, that's not what he has at all. 2.5k YBP is close to the I2a-Din TMRCA, but the split from I2a-Disles is about 6k YBP, and the split with I2a-Isles is about 11k YBP. The precise locations of these splits are too far in the past to say much about, although the ancient Loschbour and Motala samples may indicate somewhere in Northern Europe. Not that it makes a big difference to this topic's question.

And about former Visigothic territories, we see that I1 (which you think is Gothic) and I2a Din are pretty much equal, or maybe I think I2a Din is even more numerous.

That's not true. Spain, for example, has single digits of I1 and effectively 0% I2a-Din. Portugal is similar. Where are you finding I2a-Din in Iberia?

And let's go by logic- if all other I groups are Germanic (for example I1, I2b, I2a "Isles" and "Disles" which are closest to Dinaric), then how I2a Din is not?

Haplogroup I is ~22k years old. It is much older than anything "Germanic" and spans several European linguistic groups. There are plenty of subclades that aren't Germanic. I2-L38 looks more Celtic to me, for example. I'd place my own subclade (I2c-PF3881) as more Celtic. I2-M26 may be one of the earliest subclades of the Basques, even.

I don't know for northern parts of Yugoslavia, but in southern Bosnia, Herzegovina and Montenegro most of people that are I1 are I1 p109 with STR481=0. It is also called "Drobnjak clan cluster" because it was first found among 7 men from that clan. Other I1 can also be results from any other Germanic tribes, or from large number of German miners that settled here in medieval times, not just from Goths, which I already explained. Anyways our medieval sources mostly tell us of Gothic origin of people of this area.

I'd agree that different I1 subclades could represent different Germanic input, which is why I was arguing that I1-Z63 in particular looks like it could have come largely from the Goths. I'd be interested in a breakdown of which I1 subclades are most common in the Balkans if you know of one.
 
Yes, many words are only present in Croatian (by that I mean also in Bosnia, Montenegro and most of Serbia). Many actually look like Slavic but they are not- for example our word "vrijedan": in Russian -vredniy means harmful, while in our language vrijedan means worthy, which is same as Gothic wairthan. MOST of the words mentioned above are not common Slavic and are present ONLY in our language. I should add that some other words which are now "common Slavic" are actually spread to Slavic languages because of Old Church Slavonic and spread of Christianity, because it spread from south Slavic (linguistically speaking) lands to other Slavic ones.
How do you explain same slavic vocabulary in Polish, though we never have learned Old Church Slavonic, and took christianity from Holy Roman Empire instead?
 
First I want to reply to obvious BS stating that "R1a might be Turkmen/Scythian/whatever" and not Slavic, while I2a Din is true proto-Slavic. It is FAR, FAR from thruth.
Since 19th century Russian and Polish historians argue that Scythians were in fact Slavs. German elites back in then tried to prove that Scythians are in fact ancestors of modern day Ossetians and classified Scythian language as "Iranian". First problem with this is that proto-Slavic kurgan culture Scythians were R1a1 people while Ossetians are mainly J2, G, K and R1a1 is practically ABSENT in them. In recent research conducted in 6 Ossetian groups only 1 percent of them were R1a.
How, therefore, is it possible that the Scythian language was classified as Iranian dialect, close to the Ossetian one? What exactly do we know about the language of Scythians? In fact, we know nothing, or very little.
There are no written Scythian texts left. We know nothing about the Scythian grammar. The only source are the inscriptions with toponyms and names, and a few names from Herodot. This is what the so called ‘’linguistic analysis’’ which connected Scythians with Iranians was based upon.
Let’s put the linguistic speculations aside, though. What is truly important is that Iranians and Ossetians are NOT people of light skin complexion. We know from Herodot that Royal Scyths who lived North of the Black Sea were characterized by fair skin complexion. This is confirmed by genetic research of Indo-European tribes , including the Scythians, which invaded Asia.
Quote from one recent genetic study:
"To help unravel some of the early Eurasian steppe migration movements, we determined the Y-chromosomal and mitochondrial haplotypes and haplogroups of 26 ancient human specimens from the Krasnoyarsk area dated from between the middle of the second millennium BC. to the fourth century AD. In order to go further in the search of the geographic origin and physical traits of these south Siberian specimens, we also typed phenotype-informative single nucleotide polymorphisms. Our autosomal, Y-chromosomal and mitochondrial DNA analyses reveal that whereas few specimens seem to be related matrilineally or patrilineally, nearly all subjects belong to haplogroup R1a1-M17 which is thought to mark the eastward migration of the early Indo-Europeans. Our results also confirm that at the Bronze and Iron Ages, south Siberia was a region of overwhelmingly predominant European settlement, suggesting an eastward migration of Kurgan people across the Russo-Kazakh steppe. Finally, our data indicate that at the Bronze and Iron Age timeframe, south Siberians were blue (or green)-eyed, fair-skinned and light-haired people and that they might have played a role in the early development of the Tarim Basin civilization. To the best of our knowledge, no equivalent molecular analysis has been undertaken so far. "


Migration of people originating from the Slavic kurgan culture, that is light-skinned people carrying the R1a1 gene is considered proven by the modern science. May I add that this particular kind of science is based not upon linguistic speculations but entirely on genetic research, then it cannot be distorted, adjusted or manipulated like the linguistic analysis.


Another quote related to the research on the ancient Scytho-Siberian DNA and skeletons:
"The assignment method was performed from only the allelic frequencies of the seven STR loci considered in the consensus genotype. The probability of observing an individual with the Kizil skeleton STR profile was the highest in the two eastern European populations (Russia and Poland). Indeed, the likelihood that the Kizil skeleton STR profile occurred in these two populations was 10 times higher than in other European populations, 100 times higher than in eastern Asian populations, and about 100,000 times higher than in Indian populations."


This study hence entirely excludes the similarity of Scythians and Asians. At the same time, it points out the similarity of Scythian and Slavic skeletons.
The skull studies prove the same conclusion. Those of modern "Caucasoids" from Eastern Europe cluster very closely with crania from the Karasuk culture. They're also pretty close to all the other purported Indo-Iranians.
As for the R1a1 gene, it is most concentrated among the Slavs- mostly the Poles, the Russians and the Lusatians. All genetic research conducted so far show that Indo-European people migrating into Asia in Bronze and Iron Age, including the Scythians, share R1a1 haplogroup, have fair skin complexion and are genetically closest to the Slavs. Hence, we know that Scythians and other tribes which originated from the kurgan culture did not come from Asia but migrated into Asia. We know that their fatherland was situated North from the Black Sea and was geographically inter-related with the Slavic land. Moreover, the description of the Scythians matches that of the Slavs.
According to the fourth book of Herodot’s Histories, North from the so called Royal Scyths – the principal Scythian tribe- lived the Scythian farmers and Scythian ‘’ploughmen’’. If those two tribes were also considered Scythian, it means that they most likely looked like the Royal Scyths, had similar behavioural patterns to the Royal Scyths and spoke a similar language to that of the Royal Scyths. The only languages that ever existed in this particular geographical area, and exist until this day, are Slavic languages.




The Scythians did not thus speak the Iranian languages. The other way round- the Iranian languages and other languages of central Asia were developed from the Scythian, that is Slavic, languages and hence the linguistic similarities.


May I add that this seems to confirm Indian legends about a noble fair-skinned tribe which migrated into their land in the past. Interestingly, the Indian Brahmini caste- that is the highest one, the caste of rulers and priests, are said to share the R1a1 gene.
Quote from a medical journal:
"Many major rival models of the origin of the Hindu caste system co-exist despite extensive studies, each with associated genetic evidences. One of the major factors that has still kept the origin of the Indian caste system obscure is the unresolved question of the origin of Y-haplogroup R1a1*, at times associated with a male-mediated major genetic influx from Central Asia or Eurasia, which has contributed to the higher castes in India. Y-haplogroup R1a1* has a widespread distribution and high frequency across Eurasia, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent, with scanty reports of its ancestral (R*, R1* and R1a*) and derived lineages (R1a1a, R1a1b and R1a1c). To resolve these issues, we screened 621 Y-chromosomes (of Brahmins occupying the upper-most caste position and schedule castes/tribals occupying the lower-most positions) with 55 Y-chromosomal binary markers and seven Y-microsatellite markers and compiled an extensive dataset of 2809 Y-chromosomes (681 Brahmins, and 2128 tribals and schedule castes) for conclusions. A peculiar observation of the highest frequency (up to 72.22%) of Y-haplogroup R1a1* in Brahmins hinted at its presence as a founder lineage for this caste group. "

Proto-Slavs ARE carriers of R1a1 and are descendants of Scythians, that migrated from Europe to Asia- not the other way around. Unfortunately I could not post sources of those studies because I'm not allowed to post link since I have less than 10 posts but you will find sources fast with Google.
 
I think there are a few factors that are potentially at play, but above all, it's important to keep in mind that relative haplogroup percentages do not tend to stay the same over long periods of time, especially when we're talking about an expanding population. I mean, the same argument could be made against the Goths, asking where all the R1b-U106 and I1 went. But either way it's not as strong of an argument as one based on the phylogenetic patterns of the clade in question.
Can you please explain to me how are Goths and R1b-U106 connected? It's maximum concentrations are far from lands Goths inhabited.



Not quite, it's backwards--the diversity pattern of I2a-Din looks more like Ukraine>Poland>Balkans, not Poland>Ukraine>Balkans. You might be able to argue for Poland>Ukraine>Poland>Balkans if we include the outlier I2a-"Dinaric cousin" (Wojtowicz) subclade, but that's some thousands of years earlier in the picture.
I wasn't talking about diversity pattern, what I meant was concentration. You can perfectly see how concentration steadily increases when we follow their migrations from oldest to most recent homeland, and it is pretty logical IMO.
Now diversity pattern is a little tricky, AFAIK ancestors of many people who today live in southern Poland actually lived in western Ukraine in some point of time.
First division of Dinaric was by STR448=20 (North) and STR448=19 (South) by Nordtvedt. Afterwards new SNP's CTS34002, CTS10936, CTS11768 were found that clearly separate Disles from Dinaric, and after that comes Polish "Dinaric cousin", but since it is negative on two SNP's (CTS5966 and CTS10228) while Din is positive, and also on STR565=11 while other Dinaric have STR565=9, it is obvious that Dinaric cousin is separated from Dinaric by few thousand years and therefore he's not relevant to our discussion.
Only a few months ago SNP S12750 was found and it was positive on all of Dinaric South, and also in most of North while smaller part of North had it negative, which confirms thesis that South is just a younger branch of North and that both came relatively recently from north.
As I already said diversity part is messy. So if we have in mind that many of southern Poland residents came from Ukraine it is safe to assume that DS and DN actually were not geographically separated so much, and also in ex-Yugoslavia we can find both DN and DS although DS has prevalence.
BTW many Montenegrins have STR448=18 so I wonder if it could mean new branch of DS.
But if we follow concentration pattern and also have in mind regional distribution of I2a Din and R1a in Yugoslavia we will see that it corresponds very well to Gothic migrations.



...I'll stop you right there, that's not what he has at all. 2.5k YBP is close to the I2a-Din TMRCA, but the split from I2a-Disles is about 6k YBP, and the split with I2a-Isles is about 11k YBP. The precise locations of these splits are too far in the past to say much about, although the ancient Loschbour and Motala samples may indicate somewhere in Northern Europe. Not that it makes a big difference to this topic's question.
Yeah, my mistake. But again it is not really relevant to our discussion. What I wanted to point out is that I2a Din TMRCA lived in Gothic homeland 2500 years ago...



That's not true. Spain, for example, has single digits of I1 and effectively 0% I2a-Din. Portugal is similar. Where are you finding I2a-Din in Iberia?
I must have mixed I2a Din with general I2a (which is Basque I think). But then again I1 has like 1 percent in whole Spain and it is actually more common on south then on north where Visigoth core was, actually it is practically absent. I2a Din may be absent but there are some individuals from New Mexico of Spanish ancestry with I2a Din, what is also interesting is that all of them are North and none South.



Haplogroup I is ~22k years old. It is much older than anything "Germanic" and spans several European linguistic groups. There are plenty of subclades that aren't Germanic. I2-L38 looks more Celtic to me, for example. I'd place my own subclade (I2c-PF3881) as more Celtic. I2-M26 may be one of the earliest subclades of the Basques, even.
Well yes, but I didn't say it was Germanic in time of its formation, I actually meant it is Germanic now and many close clades to I2a Din are Germanic now. And BTW Celtic (especially if it stand for Celts BC) is more cultural than ethnic mark.


I'd agree that different I1 subclades could represent different Germanic input, which is why I was arguing that I1-Z63 in particular looks like it could have come largely from the Goths. I'd be interested in a breakdown of which I1 subclades are most common in the Balkans if you know of one.
I took this data from Serb DNA project (which includes results from whole Yugoslavia): I1 p109 STR481=0: 17 surnames, I1 Z58: 4 surnames, I1 Z63: 9 surnames (8 of them from single Macura clan).
Now, it doesn't make sense that descendants of Robert Guiscard's Normans (I1 P109 STR481=0, seafarers and warriors that came in boats) are more numerous than descendants of what you think of as Goths (I1 Z63, very large people that inhabited west Balkan for at least 200 years), does it? And keep in mind that all except one of I1 Z63 found are from one single clan.

How do you explain same slavic vocabulary in Polish, though we never have learned Old Church Slavonic, and took christianity from Holy Roman Empire instead?

Well of course most of our vocabulary is same because we speak Slavic, but most of words of Gothic origin here are not common in other Slavic lands, and if they are, it is most likely that they have another word for it while we only have one. Someone above also mentioned that about 1000 words of Gothic origin are present in Chakavian dialect, which was nowhere as much influenced by language standardization because it is not official and therefore it is only spoken among locals.
 
Can you please explain to me how are Goths and R1b-U106 connected? It's maximum concentrations are far from lands Goths inhabited.

Well, every modern Germanic population has large amounts of R1b-U106, I1, and R1a, although the relative percentages vary. East Germanic peoples may have had lower percentages of R1b-U106, sure. I think I've even argued before that they likely had lower R1b-U106 than other Germanic peoples. But I don't see a reason to believe that they had none.

I wasn't talking about diversity pattern, what I meant was concentration. You can perfectly see how concentration steadily increases when we follow their migrations from oldest to most recent homeland, and it is pretty logical IMO.

I don't think that an argument from concentration means much, though. If a population keeps splitting, migrating, and expanding, then (at least if we're talking pre-modern population movement) the general pattern is for places closest to the points of origin to have the highest diversity of lineages. Concentrations, meanwhile, can fluctuate independently in every location.

Good summary of what we know of the diversity, by the way, not much else to address there.

Yeah, my mistake. But again it is not really relevant to our discussion. What I wanted to point out is that I2a Din TMRCA lived in Gothic homeland 2500 years ago...

2500 YBP is close to the I2a-Din TMRCA, so I suppose in that case we're looking for the place where the I2a-Din TMRCA most likely lived. Last I checked (admittedly I haven't been keeping up with developments the past year or so, so correct me if I'm wrong), the highest diversity was around Ukraine and Romania. Poland is a hot spot for I2a-Din-S diversity in particular, but that's younger than 2500 years ago, and raises the question of what population would be transmitting lineages from the direction of Ukraine to Poland.

Well yes, but I didn't say it was Germanic in time of its formation, I actually meant it is Germanic now and many close clades to I2a Din are Germanic now.

Do Disles and Isles look Germanic to you? I see evidence of some possible Celtic/Germanic split within Isles, but Disles looks pretty Celtic. It's tough to say with continental samples so sparse, of course. Anyway, the split between I2a-Din and Disles is older than most estimates I've seen for the Germanic ethnogenesis by quite a bit, so it doesn't inform us much here either way. It could be that each branch is simply derived from an ancient northern European population, some of which would later contribute to Germanic peoples, but also some to northern Celtic peoples in the west, some to Slavic peoples in the east, etc.

And BTW Celtic (especially if it stand for Celts BC) is more cultural than ethnic mark.

I would call it an ethno-linguistic group, like Germanic and Slavic. If you mean that Celtic peoples were more genetically diverse than Germanic and (proto?-)Slavic peoples in the late BC period, I would agree. I'm just saying that some subclades look like they fall into the big Celtic bucket more than into the Germanic bucket.

I took this data from Serb DNA project (which includes results from whole Yugoslavia): I1 p109 STR481=0: 17 surnames, I1 Z58: 4 surnames, I1 Z63: 9 surnames (8 of them from single Macura clan).
Now, it doesn't make sense that descendants of Robert Guiscard's Normans (I1 P109 STR481=0, seafarers and warriors that came in boats) are more numerous than descendants of what you think of as Goths (I1 Z63, very large people that inhabited west Balkan for at least 200 years), does it? And keep in mind that all except one of I1 Z63 found are from one single clan.

If your numbers are accurate, then it's certainly remarkable that there seems to be a large founder effect from a possibly Norman source. I1-Z63 is still a good place to look for Gothic contribution, although I'm not saying that we will get an accurate measure by looking at just the I1-Z63 percentage. In fact, it may be difficult to get an accurate measure from modern Y-DNA at all.

Still, I'm not satisfied with this sample. I'd like to look at the I1 Project, but it's currently giving me errors, so maybe later.
 
I don't think that an argument from concentration means much, though. If a population keeps splitting, migrating, and expanding, then (at least if we're talking pre-modern population movement) the general pattern is for places closest to the points of origin to have the highest diversity of lineages. Concentrations, meanwhile, can fluctuate independently in every location.

Good summary of what we know of the diversity, by the way, not much else to address there.
I think concentrations are more important than you think, and concentrations can not fluctuate independently on every location. Why? Because it is not the way Germanic peoples migrated. Germanic tribes migrated en-masse, taking all of tribe members with them, so what we got after they left were only small leftovers. "Expanding" was certainly not what they did. On other hand Slavic tribes did that, they migrated by conquering piece by piece of new lands, while they never abandoned their old homeland. Not until the 6/7th century did they start with massive migrations too. I believe we were taught that in elementary school as main difference between their migrations.
So if we fit that in our story, it means that main mass of Gothic tribes left Poland so the leftovers were assimilated by next people that came there. Similar thing happened to Ukraine sea coast, BUT part was enslaved by Huns so they did not migrate with rest.
It seems pretty logical to me, but I could be wrong.

2500 YBP is close to the I2a-Din TMRCA, so I suppose in that case we're looking for the place where the I2a-Din TMRCA most likely lived. Last I checked (admittedly I haven't been keeping up with developments the past year or so, so correct me if I'm wrong), the highest diversity was around Ukraine and Romania. Poland is a hot spot for I2a-Din-S diversity in particular, but that's younger than 2500 years ago, and raises the question of what population would be transmitting lineages from the direction of Ukraine to Poland.
IIRC it was Nordtvedt himself who located I2a Din TMRCA in middle course of Vistula (which corresponds to Gothic homeland). BTW as I said majority of people living today in parts of southern Poland can have their origins in western Ukraine so that may answer your question?

If your numbers are accurate, then it's certainly remarkable that there seems to be a large founder effect from a possibly Norman source. I1-Z63 is still a good place to look for Gothic contribution, although I'm not saying that we will get an accurate measure by looking at just the I1-Z63 percentage. In fact, it may be difficult to get an accurate measure from modern Y-DNA at all.

Still, I'm not satisfied with this sample. I'd like to look at the I1 Project, but it's currently giving me errors, so maybe later.
Hmm well I don't have permission to post links so I will give you directions. Google "srpski dnk projekat" and click on first result, then click on tab "СВИ ДНК РЕЗУЛТАТИ ПО ПРЕЗИМЕНИМА" and you will see table with haplogroups by surnames. Notice that there are 14 I1 results that do not have specific subgroup.
I think Norman input under any circumstances can never be as large as Gothic one.
 
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In favor of the Goths we have evidence of 4000 years of continuity of I2a1 in Northern Europe, from Loschbour in 6000 B.C. to Ajvide 58 in 2000 B.C., we have an archeological record of depopulation of Scandinavia in the age of Germanic migrations and a modern distribution that matches the written history of where those people settled.
 
I think concentrations are more important than you think, and concentrations can not fluctuate independently on every location. Why? Because it is not the way Germanic peoples migrated. Germanic tribes migrated en-masse, taking all of tribe members with them, so what we got after they left were only small leftovers. "Expanding" was certainly not what they did. On other hand Slavic tribes did that, they migrated by conquering piece by piece of new lands, while they never abandoned their old homeland. Not until the 6/7th century did they start with massive migrations too. I believe we were taught that in elementary school as main difference between their migrations.

I don't see the connection. The populations that Goths contributed to did not remain Gothic, so of course they fluctuated afterward, and they would have even if they had, since how the population fluctuates internally doesn't depend on how they got there. Anyway, even if we accept the idea that all Goths left their homeland and left no remnants, I would still expect to see remnant neighboring tribes with similar genetics. Groups like the Anglo-Saxons, Suebi, etc. left behind plenty of peoples of related (and even their own) tribes with practically indistinguishable genetics, and we get nice comparisons between modern populations near their origins and at their destinations. Are the Goths supposed to be different?

Hmm well I don't have permission to post links so I will give you directions. Google "srpski dnk projekat" and click on first result, then click on tab "СВИ ДНК РЕЗУЛТАТИ ПО ПРЕЗИМЕНИМА" and you will see table with haplogroups by surnames. Notice that there are 14 I1 results that do not have specific subgroup.
I think Norman input under any circumstances can never be as large as Gothic one.

Thanks, I've seen Poreklo's DNA Project before, they're very good. Their results have informed a couple of my additions to my "Searching for famous I2 carriers" thread.

Still waiting on FTDNA to start working again to get additional data, though.
 
Anyway, even if we accept the idea that all Goths left their homeland and left no remnants, I would still expect to see remnant neighboring tribes with similar genetics. Groups like the Anglo-Saxons, Suebi, etc. left behind plenty of peoples of related (and even their own) tribes with practically indistinguishable genetics, and we get nice comparisons between modern populations near their origins and at their destinations. Are the Goths supposed to be different?

Couple problems with that. We don't have any Anglo Saxon Y DNA or Suebi DNA at all so your point is just an assumption.
 

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