I think there are a few factors that are potentially at play, but above all, it's important to keep in mind that relative haplogroup percentages do not tend to stay the same over long periods of time, especially when we're talking about an expanding population. I mean, the same argument could be made against the Goths, asking where all the R1b-U106 and I1 went. But either way it's not as strong of an argument as one based on the phylogenetic patterns of the clade in question.
Can you please explain to me how are Goths and R1b-U106 connected? It's maximum concentrations are far from lands Goths inhabited.
Not quite, it's backwards--the diversity pattern of I2a-Din looks more like Ukraine>Poland>Balkans, not Poland>Ukraine>Balkans. You might be able to argue for Poland>Ukraine>Poland>Balkans if we include the outlier I2a-"Dinaric cousin" (Wojtowicz) subclade, but that's some thousands of years earlier in the picture.
I wasn't talking about diversity pattern, what I meant was concentration. You can perfectly see how concentration steadily increases when we follow their migrations from oldest to most recent homeland, and it is pretty logical IMO.
Now diversity pattern is a little tricky, AFAIK ancestors of many people who today live in southern Poland actually lived in western Ukraine in some point of time.
First division of Dinaric was by STR448=20 (North) and STR448=19 (South) by Nordtvedt. Afterwards new SNP's CTS34002, CTS10936, CTS11768 were found that clearly separate Disles from Dinaric, and after that comes Polish "Dinaric cousin", but since it is negative on two SNP's (CTS5966 and CTS10228) while Din is positive, and also on STR565=11 while other Dinaric have STR565=9, it is obvious that Dinaric cousin is separated from Dinaric by few thousand years and therefore he's not relevant to our discussion.
Only a few months ago SNP S12750 was found and it was positive on all of Dinaric South, and also in most of North while smaller part of North had it negative, which confirms thesis that South is just a younger branch of North and that both came relatively recently from north.
As I already said diversity part is messy. So if we have in mind that many of southern Poland residents came from Ukraine it is safe to assume that DS and DN actually were not geographically separated so much, and also in ex-Yugoslavia we can find both DN and DS although DS has prevalence.
BTW many Montenegrins have STR448=18 so I wonder if it could mean new branch of DS.
But if we follow concentration pattern and also have in mind regional distribution of I2a Din and R1a in Yugoslavia we will see that it corresponds very well to Gothic migrations.
...I'll stop you right there, that's not what he has at all. 2.5k YBP is close to the I2a-Din TMRCA, but the split from I2a-Disles is about 6k YBP, and the split with I2a-Isles is about 11k YBP. The precise locations of these splits are too far in the past to say much about, although the ancient Loschbour and Motala samples may indicate somewhere in Northern Europe. Not that it makes a big difference to this topic's question.
Yeah, my mistake. But again it is not really relevant to our discussion. What I wanted to point out is that I2a Din TMRCA lived in Gothic homeland 2500 years ago...
That's not true. Spain, for example, has single digits of I1 and effectively 0% I2a-Din. Portugal is similar. Where are you finding I2a-Din in Iberia?
I must have mixed I2a Din with general I2a (which is Basque I think). But then again I1 has like 1 percent in whole Spain and it is actually more common on south then on north where Visigoth core was, actually it is practically absent. I2a Din may be absent but there are some individuals from New Mexico of Spanish ancestry with I2a Din, what is also interesting is that all of them are North and none South.
Haplogroup I is ~22k years old. It is much older than anything "Germanic" and spans several European linguistic groups. There are plenty of subclades that aren't Germanic. I2-L38 looks more Celtic to me, for example. I'd place my own subclade (I2c-PF3881) as more Celtic. I2-M26 may be one of the earliest subclades of the Basques, even.
Well yes, but I didn't say it was Germanic in time of its formation, I actually meant it is Germanic now and many close clades to I2a Din are Germanic now. And BTW Celtic (especially if it stand for Celts BC) is more cultural than ethnic mark.
I'd agree that different I1 subclades could represent different Germanic input, which is why I was arguing that I1-Z63 in particular looks like it could have come largely from the Goths. I'd be interested in a breakdown of which I1 subclades are most common in the Balkans if you know of one.
I took this data from Serb DNA project (which includes results from whole Yugoslavia): I1 p109 STR481=0: 17 surnames, I1 Z58: 4 surnames, I1 Z63: 9 surnames (8 of them from single Macura clan).
Now, it doesn't make sense that descendants of Robert Guiscard's Normans (I1 P109 STR481=0, seafarers and warriors that came in boats) are more numerous than descendants of what you think of as Goths (I1 Z63, very large people that inhabited west Balkan for at least 200 years), does it? And keep in mind that all except one of I1 Z63 found are from one single clan.
How do you explain same slavic vocabulary in Polish, though we never have learned Old Church Slavonic, and took christianity from Holy Roman Empire instead?
Well of course most of our vocabulary is same because we speak Slavic, but most of words of Gothic origin here are not common in other Slavic lands, and if they are, it is most likely that they have another word for it while we only have one. Someone above also mentioned that about 1000 words of Gothic origin are present in Chakavian dialect, which was nowhere as much influenced by language standardization because it is not official and therefore it is only spoken among locals.