Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

Riverman said:
I honestly didn't thought that Putin would attack the whole Ukraine, but rather use a limited operation for getting water supply and a connection for the Crimean and preserving the Donbas. That he was going all-in like came rather unexpected. But it just shows that he plays everything with one big card and this is extremely dangerous, but also kind of logical since the West would have done all the things it does regardless of whether the operation would have been more limited or not. Which is yet another problem with the Western measures: They said they will hurt Russia if they cross the border regardless of how they do it and where. So he just don't cares any more.
And that's typical for him and the Russian leadership: If you don't give them options, they will go even further. The less options they got, the more radical the solutions will get, which is exactly the situation of which I warned before and which might escalate even into a nuclear war in a worst case scenario.
Click to expand...

The reverse is also true the Riverman there are certain area's which I have doubt if you must always "give them options". He went into no go area's. Setting on once card was eventually his own option. Not something he was forced up that would be a big mistake to think that imo.
 
So finally Germany will spend $100B on its military. About freaking time. At least Japan has started spending on its military to counteract North Korea and Chinese aggression.
 
Northener said:
With my knowledge as historian and a close observer from German politics I can't share that opinion. Yes there was some kind of naiveté of understatement of Putin's real agenda. Nevertheless certainly not Merkel wanted that. There is no indication for it. It was Wandel dutch Handel. Change through trade. But not leaving the NATO.

I just hear the speech of Scholz, impressive. Yes he made a shift. And he granted this. Nevertheless determined to defend freedom and democracy. And I must stress that it was for Germany a turn also in delivering weapons that was tabu after ww2. And they spend 100 mil on the Bundeswehr with makes it more than 2%.

The Germans also spend money for LNG etc. They have totally turned their head of Russia.

And last but least this is a magnificent article about the neo Pax Americana, I guess the Europeans and the US still must join their forces, more than even....no need for isolation on the contrary:

https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...-wrong-pax-americana-worth-defending-00011448
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Northerner: Thanks for the post, yes my assessment of German politics obviously does not have the ability to assess it the way you can. So it seems it was just a segment of German geo-political thinking (using Trade to change behavior) that is very similar to the USA position towards China starting with Bush 1 (which I have already outlined) to Obama.

And Yes, I have recognized a very quick change in German policy towards Russia. I have commended the German Government for that and I am glad to see that change. So Scholz is starting to really impress me as a leader. I haven't thought this highly of a German leader since Kohl who was a very good ally with the President Reagan and UK PM Thatcher during that 1980s Cold war period that helped end the Soviet control over Eastern Europe.

So again. Scholz in 1 week has caused me to do a 180 degree turn over my view of German political leadership.
 
Zelensky asked for negotiations, to deafening silence from Putin. Putin didn't want a negotiated settlement with maybe the two breakaway provinces full of Russians being allowed to go their own way. You don't mount a mass invasion of a country from three sides in a week. The plans for a total invasion of Ukraine, and then re-incorporation of Ukraine into "Greater Russia" has clearly been in the works for a long time.

I said from the beginning he would invade and if he won, after a pause he would go after other former Eastern Bloc countries. Like Hitler before him he has clearly advertised his goals. It's beyond me why the West wouldn't take his words at face value,

Also, aggressive tyrants only negotiate to gain time to finish their plans, i.e. Hitler with the Russian/German "pause" during WWII.

Things would never have come to this pass, he would never invaded, had he thought he'd be met by a strong and aggressive push back either from Ukraine or NATO. He's a bully, as all men like this are, and bully's smell weakness.

For all his faults, and despite the fact I didn't vote for him, I doubt he'd have tried this while Trump was president.

As for Trump's comments about Putin, it's a realpolitik analysis of how he handled things up till now. It doesn't at all necessarily mean, imo, that he thinks it's great Putin invaded Ukraine. I would be shocked if that were the case. I would think he'd feel Putin's overstepped himself and miscalculated. Let's try for some fairness no matter where we sit in the political spectrum.
 
Northener said:
The reverse is also true the Riverman there are certain area's which I have doubt if you must always "give them options". He went into no go area's. Setting on once card was eventually his own option. Not something he was forced up that would be a big mistake to think that imo.
Click to expand...

He was not forced to go in like that, this is true, but the Russians were constantly provoked and given inacceptable options by the West, in a row, for years. Like was there any outcry when Donbas politicians were murdered, there was sabotage and terrorism, as well as constant artillery shelling and a threat of invasion? That Crimea was blocked from the water supply, the whole region and its people, that there was no way out of the sanctions? The whole Minsk agreement was not worse the paper on which it was written, and this wasn't just the Russians fault. The threat of of Ukraine being even more militarised and eventually becoming a NATO member, under the nuclear protection of the NATO?

If you look at this for one moment from the Russian perspective, you see that this was totally unacceptable for the Russian side, regardless of what else you might say about international law and stuff, in practise, this was just a provocative policy from the Western side, which even encouraged Ukraine to provoke Russia in such inacceptable ways.
Sure, the Ukrainians are in an unacceptable situation too, from their perspective, all those years, but its like one of these situations, like Israel-Palestine, where there are two sides with justified demands, but both sides can't get everything, that's impossible. And to just let the Ukraine break as a whole away to NATO would be like giving the Palestinians all of Israel "back", obviously that's not acceptable for the Russian side and that's perfectly understandable.
 
Pro-Putin people are getting more and more crazy by the day. This was posted on another forum:

"The West is proving to be a damn fool. Every country that sends military equipment is not just further escalating the conflict, but also putting the entire world at stake. The more the overthrowing of Ukrainian government gets dragged out, the more bloodshed there's going to be.
The idea that Ukraine can be a victor in this is utterly delusional. It's either going to be a victory for Russia, or a victory for nobody at all, because you best believe Putin would rather let nukes fly than be defeated.
And rightfully so. Russia is a glorious sovereign empire, not some banana republic with no backbone, like the NATO puppet states."

^^^
No, Russia is not a great sovereign empire. It is a corrupted Potemkin village case, as Angela wrote.
 
Riverman said:
He is now in, he can't get out easily. Obviously he needs to negotiate, but its clear that the Russians need Crimea/Sevastopol, that's non-negotiable, and the Ukrainians didn't compromise, they even stopped the water supply for the Crimea.
The Russians demanded at least autonomy for the Donbass, but they never fulfilled the Minsk agreement and shelled the "republics" constantly, threatening to eliminate his allies by force.
Putin and basically all important Russian leaders said that a NATO membership for the Ukraine is thick red line, but the West never stopped to move forward in that direction. They even motivated the Ukrainians to go on with the provocations and not compromise with Russia.

I do understand the Ukrainian side, but the current borders are ethnically and historically artificial, basically wrong. It became part of the Ukraine very recently, with a transfer within the Soviet Union:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_transfer_of_Crimea

Crimea was always strategically extremely important and Sevastopol is the military and civilian door of the Russians to the Mediterranean. They can't give it up just like that, but the Ukraine never compromised and the sanctions didn't stop, while the water supply was blocked and this ruined the region.

The Ukraine need to, at least, compromise about Crimea and the West needs to aknowledge this. Of course, Russia might be forced to give this up and lose, but only by very brutal and very dangerous means. This is and always was insane. That the Ukraine could become a NATO member is bad enough, but with Crimea, that's just too much by any means. This cripples Russia for the future in a way which no Russian leader which cares for the future of his country could just accept without a fight.

Now Putin risked everything to force the Ukraine to a compromise, he is all-in. There needs to be a compromise with which Russia can live, or we don't know where the escalation might go. And I repeat that this would be a just thing, that the Ukraine in the current official borders, with the Crimean peninsula, could just join the NATO without Russian resistance is absurd.
Any Western state or leader which pushed the Ukraine in that direction must have known that this would escalate at some point, this was a wanted a conflict, nobody can be that stupid.

The main thing I would tell him is obviously to accept a second best compromise and peace and keep his fingers from the button as long as possible, as long as Russia being not directly attacked by a foreign power, he has no justification whatsoever to even think about that desastrous option.
But then again, the Ukraine and the West need to compromise with giving up on Crimea, that's the minimum prize. Anything else is just madness and every reasonable historian, military strategist and politician should know that. Crimea and Minks agreement, autonomy, possibly neutrality of the Ukraine.
That should have been the compromise from the start, but the Western powers pushed Ukraine to not move one inch in the Russian direction and even encourage them to continue with the conflict in Donbas being force. This was a blatant provocation and break of past promises to the Russians, this is not just an issue for Putin, but would have upset any Russian leader which tries to keep his country and people independent.

I honestly didn't thought that Putin would attack the whole Ukraine, but rather use a limited operation for getting water supply and a connection for the Crimean and preserving the Donbas. That he was going all-in like came rather unexpected. But it just shows that he plays everything with one big card and this is extremely dangerous, but also kind of logical since the West would have done all the things it does regardless of whether the operation would have been more limited or not. Which is yet another problem with the Western measures: They said they will hurt Russia if they cross the border regardless of how they do it and where. So he just don't cares any more.
And that's typical for him and the Russian leadership: If you don't give them options, they will go even further. The less options they got, the more radical the solutions will get, which is exactly the situation of which I warned before and which might escalate even into a nuclear war in a worst case scenario.
Click to expand...

You can't negotiate and let Putin leave as a victor.
People got killed here and infrastructure got destroyed.
Will you tell him 'You can leave and we'll clean up the mess you left, see you next time maybe'?

Putin has put himself in that situation by using phantasy arguments like 'genocide' and 'denazification' as arguments for his invasion.

Neither can NATO back down after what he has done.
The eastern borders have to be reinforced asap.

You can always negotiate, but never to the point to loose your self-respect.
 
Angela said:
Zelensky asked for negotiations, to deafening silence from Putin. Putin didn't want a negotiated settlement with maybe the two breakaway provinces full of Russians being allowed to go their own way. You don't mount a mass invasion of a country from three sides in a week. The plans for a total invasion of Ukraine, and then re-incorporation of Ukraine into "Greater Russia" has clearly been in the works for a long time.

I said from the beginning he would invade and if he won, after a pause he would go after other former Eastern Bloc countries. Like Hitler before him he has clearly advertised his goals. It's beyond me why the West wouldn't take his words at face value,

Also, aggressive tyrants only negotiate to gain time to finish their plans, i.e. Hitler with the Russian/German "pause" during WWII.

Things would never have come to this pass, he would never invaded, had he thought he'd be met by a strong and aggressive push back either from Ukraine or NATO. He's a bully, as all men like this are, and bully's smell weakness.

For all his faults, and despite the fact I didn't vote for him, I doubt he'd have tried this while Trump was president.

As for Trump's comments about Putin, it's a realpolitik analysis of how he handled things up till now. It doesn't at all necessarily mean, imo, that he thinks it's great Putin invaded Ukraine. I would be shocked if that were the case. I would think he'd feel Putin's overstepped himself and miscalculated. Let's try for some fairness no matter where we sit in the political spectrum.
Click to expand...

Both Obama and Trump did not provide Ukraine with"lethal defensive weapons" instead providing them with non-lethal weapons. I got to give credit to Cruz before the 2016 election he tried to put in a strong statement in the GOP platform in support of Ukraine which got totally watered down. Then he got emasculated...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...adb3b0-4cf3-11e6-a7d8-13d06b37f256_story.html
 
Riverman said:
He was not forced to go in like that, this is true, but the Russians were constantly provoked and given inacceptable options by the West, in a row, for years. Like was there any outcry when Donbas politicians were murdered, there was sabotage and terrorism, as well as constant artillery shelling and a threat of invasion? That Crimea was blocked from the water supply, the whole region and its people, that there was no way out of the sanctions? The whole Minsk agreement was not worse the paper on which it was written, and this wasn't just the Russians fault. The threat of of Ukraine being even more militarised and eventually becoming a NATO member, under the nuclear protection of the NATO?

If you look at this for one moment from the Russian perspective, you see that this was totally unacceptable for the Russian side, regardless of what else you might say about international law and stuff, in practise, this was just a provocative policy from the Western side, which even encouraged Ukraine to provoke Russia in such inacceptable ways.
Sure, the Ukrainians are in an unacceptable situation too, from their perspective, all those years, but its like one of these situations, like Israel-Palestine, where there are two sides with justified demands, but both sides can't get everything, that's impossible. And to just let the Ukraine break as a whole away to NATO would be like giving the Palestinians all of Israel "back", obviously that's not acceptable for the Russian side and that's perfectly understandable.
Click to expand...

I have read Dugin lately, so I do know what their thinking is and what they are up to. In the case of the Ukraine they have made a shift to the west in 2014. But this al was self chosen. Not laid up on.

We were not any longer in Metternich times in which countries and the borders were recreated by the rulers etc. Ok still the world of Putin.

And yes they are actually afraid for the strength of democracy of free speech of opposition etc. And their agenda is to battle against it, read Dugin that's clear.

So I can understand his point of view but that doen't lead to negotiable options or deals from the Western leaders imo only to no go area's.....of which the self determination of a sovereign state is the most important.

 
So, NATO should have refused the appeal of the former Eastern Bloc countries when they petitioned to join?

In order to "keep the peace" and "not provoke" Russia, the entire Eastern Bloc should have been told that no defensive treaties were possible and if Russia decided to move back in and reincorporate them it was just their bad luck?
 
Riverman said:
He was not forced to go in like that, this is true, but the Russians were constantly provoked and given inacceptable options by the West, in a row, for years. Like was there any outcry when Donbas politicians were murdered, there was sabotage and terrorism, as well as constant artillery shelling and a threat of invasion? That Crimea was blocked from the water supply, the whole region and its people, that there was no way out of the sanctions? The whole Minsk agreement was not worse the paper on which it was written, and this wasn't just the Russians fault. The threat of of Ukraine being even more militarised and eventually becoming a NATO member, under the nuclear protection of the NATO?

If you look at this for one moment from the Russian perspective, you see that this was totally unacceptable for the Russian side, regardless of what else you might say about international law and stuff, in practise, this was just a provocative policy from the Western side, which even encouraged Ukraine to provoke Russia in such inacceptable ways.
Sure, the Ukrainians are in an unacceptable situation too, from their perspective, all those years, but its like one of these situations, like Israel-Palestine, where there are two sides with justified demands, but both sides can't get everything, that's impossible. And to just let the Ukraine break as a whole away to NATO would be like giving the Palestinians all of Israel "back", obviously that's not acceptable for the Russian side and that's perfectly understandable.
Click to expand...

Maybe you can fill me in on ther murdering of the Donbas politicians.
But aside from that.
It's not because some one has a different perspective that you have to give in.
You make it sound like if there was a threat that Ukraine or NATO would invade Russia?
That perspective is paranoia.
 
bicicleur 2 said:
Maybe you can fill me in on ther murdering of the Donbas politicians.
But aside from that.
It's not because some one has a different perspective that you have to give in.
You make it sound like if there was a threat that Ukraine or NATO would invade Russia?
That perspective is paranoia.
Click to expand...

So how do we know that the murder of the Donbas politicians was not a false flag operation by the KGB? A pretext to agitate the Donbas/Donetsk region. Oh the poor Russians suffering in silence till they can't take it anymore!
 
That massacre we saw before is apparently the job of Bayraktar drones (Made in Turkey) according to this Tweet:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/14...4o-aj_9xuvTo3_w

b7gzTqv.png


^^^ A longer version of this video is also on You Tube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IbPWwRAF-w


So Putin did not learn from the Armenian-Azeri War of 2020 and doesn't know how to deal with enemy drones?
 
"Everyone was burned out.." Russian military shares events from the war with Ukraine:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t2qdas/everyone_was_burned_out_russian_military_shares/

"Hello everyone, here in Belgorod I am with Ruslan, Max and the youngs... and everything that happens here is ****** up. 3 BTGR squads were sent to Ukraine and the first BTGR was ****** up. The second BTGR, now I don't know what condition they are in, but they are holding on. The third part of the BTGR, yesterday Lieutenant Colonel Guzeev left with 4-5 "Motolyga"(mt-lb, multi-purpose floating armored personnel carrier. The multi-purpose transporter is designed to transport people and cargo, and is also widely used as an artillery tractor) and a few Urals and that's it, I do not know what condition they are in...
Then, last night, 60 people arrived in the Urals, KAMAZ trucks, they say that they were the only ones left of the entire BTGR, the battalion commander of the first infantry battalion was captured, there are a lot of "two hundredths"(deads) in our brigade. The watch on which we arrived from Kursk near Belgorod, yesterday he drove "two hundredths" all day, the driver says in shock. Then, what else can I tell you...

Then the commander of the 25th brigade Arkhipov "two hundredth", the third company of the 25th brigade was put down in the first minute, the 25th was completely destroyed, nothing was left of them. the same is said about the 95th brigade, it was also ****** up, the Taman division was also ****** up. Tank battalions that we have the only one that more or less coped with Battalion Commander Petrov, while he was driving the tank covered the soldiers, managed to **** up 2-3 armored personnel carriers, 2-3 'motolygi', about six cars were ****** up by one captain Petrov, that's such a ****.

As a result, the training of the current soldiers whom we have seen here, me, Ruslan and all the other sensible guys who are here, there are no normal armor, helmets on people, the uniform is terrible, they are dressed like homeless people, it's ****** up, conditions in general, okay military conditions, it's understandable, but there is no uniform at all, and they are sent TO BE SLAUGHTERED by people who have been preparing for us for 8 years, 8 years in Ukraine, these Azov Special Forces battalion, and there are PMCs from all over the world, from Hungarians Africans to Indians. It's the guys who have arrived, they're telling right now, they've seen it all. They are being shot at from everywhere and they do not understand where they are being shot at.

The battalion of the SOBR and the National Guard just burned the ****. Medical Urals where 6 people were sleeping, they were hit by a shell, all 6 burned alive. Of the forty of SOBR (something like SWAT), 6 survived, the rest were burned. The National Guards was getting shot by RPG and everything else, they ****** up, there was no one left. And National Guardians and soldiers from other battalions which came from other sides, they turned around and went back, said what they will not go.

And the equipment that we have left is generally ridiculous, it's the Urals and KAMAZ trucks and 4 tanks that can't shoot. It's ****** up men, it's a failure."
 
bigsnake49 said:
So how do we know that the murder of the Donbas politicians was not a false flag operation by the KGB? A pretext to agitate the Donbas/Donetsk region. Oh the poor Russians suffering in silence till they can't take it anymore!
Click to expand...

ask riverman, I don't know the details

it's clear though that Putin is not telling what he thinks or knows himself
he's way to smart to believe such nonsense
he's trying to spread some narrative he hopes the uninformed Russians will believe
 
Tomenable said:
"Everyone was burned out.." Russian military shares events from the war with Ukraine:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t2qdas/everyone_was_burned_out_russian_military_shares/

"Hello everyone, here in Belgorod I am with Ruslan, Max and the youngs... and everything that happens here is ****** up. 3 BTGR squads were sent to Ukraine and the first BTGR was ****** up. The second BTGR, now I don't know what condition they are in, but they are holding on. The third part of the BTGR, yesterday Lieutenant Colonel Guzeev left with 4-5 "Motolyga"(mt-lb, multi-purpose floating armored personnel carrier. The multi-purpose transporter is designed to transport people and cargo, and is also widely used as an artillery tractor) and a few Urals and that's it, I do not know what condition they are in...
Then, last night, 60 people arrived in the Urals, KAMAZ trucks, they say that they were the only ones left of the entire BTGR, the battalion commander of the first infantry battalion was captured, there are a lot of "two hundredths"(deads) in our brigade. The watch on which we arrived from Kursk near Belgorod, yesterday he drove "two hundredths" all day, the driver says in shock. Then, what else can I tell you...

Then the commander of the 25th brigade Arkhipov "two hundredth", the third company of the 25th brigade was put down in the first minute, the 25th was completely destroyed, nothing was left of them. the same is said about the 95th brigade, it was also ****** up, the Taman division was also ****** up. Tank battalions that we have the only one that more or less coped with Battalion Commander Petrov, while he was driving the tank covered the soldiers, managed to **** up 2-3 armored personnel carriers, 2-3 'motolygi', about six cars were ****** up by one captain Petrov, that's such a ****.

As a result, the training of the current soldiers whom we have seen here, me, Ruslan and all the other sensible guys who are here, there are no normal armor, helmets on people, the uniform is terrible, they are dressed like homeless people, it's ****** up, conditions in general, okay military conditions, it's understandable, but there is no uniform at all, and they are sent TO BE SLAUGHTERED by people who have been preparing for us for 8 years, 8 years in Ukraine, these Azov Special Forces battalion, and there are PMCs from all over the world, from Hungarians Africans to Indians. It's the guys who have arrived, they're telling right now, they've seen it all. They are being shot at from everywhere and they do not understand where they are being shot at.

The battalion of the SOBR and the National Guard just burned the ****. Medical Urals where 6 people were sleeping, they were hit by a shell, all 6 burned alive. Of the forty of SOBR (something like SWAT), 6 survived, the rest were burned. The National Guards was getting shot by RPG and everything else, they ****** up, there was no one left. And National Guardians and soldiers from other battalions which came from other sides, they turned around and went back, said what they will not go.

And the equipment that we have left is generally ridiculous, it's the Urals and KAMAZ trucks and 4 tanks that can't shoot. It's ****** up men, it's a failure."
Click to expand...

I don't understand.
In the video we see a lot of destroyed and burned tanks.
But we don't see any bodies, burned or not.
 
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