Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

Many Poles are actually sceptical because they think it would impoverish us and only Ukrainians would benefit (from economic POV at least).

Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, that's part of the anger in the population and why they, ironically, voted for this oligarch pushed & paid actor Selenski. Sure, economically it would ruin the Ukraine, even more if there is no good peace with Russia. Because Ukraine largely lived from the cheap Russian gas, that was one of their big advantages for the industry, yet they couldn't even afford that because of misgovernment. Just imagine they have to buy American-Arab gas for years to compensate for that? This would ruin what might remains after the war. And the EU won't pay that neither, it would ruin them too, especially as long as it stays such a corrupt oligarch state.
The Ukrainians should have cared more about removing those oligarchs from power, rather than going for NATO. Incidently, the oligarchs preferred the anti-Russian and pro-NATO course largely, to secure their "investments" in Ukraine. Instead of real reforms and a better administration, the worked for the nationalist cause, the anti-Russian cause. That was still more convenient for them. Now these oligarchs have more power than ever, they have their private armies fighting in this war and all competitors from the pro-Russian side being arrested, fled the country or might get shot soon.
Obviously, taking Ukraine in that state of affairs would be a huge burden for any state structure, honestly.

^^^ Belarus opposition leader strongly supports Ukraine:

Sure they do, because they want to take power and know how to oppose ("opposition") the current leadership and also know where they might get help from ("the West" = USA).
 
I don't know how strong is Belarusian opposition, but surely millions of people.

It is not a small percentage of the population.
 
Sure they do, because they want to take power

They actually won last elections, but Lukashenko ignored democratic vote, declared his victory, and imprisoned the winner. With Putin's support:

 
Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world

Indeed.

But back in 1989 Ukraine was actually richer, in terms of GDP per capita & wages, than Poland. Unbelievable considering the current gap.

After that Ukraine stagnated, while Poland quickly progressed between 1990 and 2004 - thanks to which we were accepted into the EU.

=====

The main reasons why Ukraine is so corrupt:

1) They never actually overthrew the Commies - the exact same people continued to be in positions of power after 1991 as before 1991.

2) Russia has been constantly meddling in their internal affairs after 1991, it is in Russia's best interest to keep Ukraine corrupt and poor.
 
The Ukrainians should have cared more about removing those oligarchs from power

They can't because these oligarchs are - in vast majority of cases - Pro-Russian. They probably make very lucrative deals with Putin.

If they remove oligarchs from power, they will get invaded by Russia. So, maybe they did remove them. Since they just got invaded.

Incidently, the oligarchs preferred the anti-Russian and pro-NATO course largely


Which ones ???

Ukrainian oligarchs are Soviet Commies, or sons and grandsons of Soviet Commies. Why would they be pro-Nato ??? Julia Tymoshenko is not an oligarch for example. She just worked for a pro-Russian oligarch in the past, and later she betrayed the pro-Russian faction.
 
Indeed.

But back in 1989 Ukraine was actually richer, in terms of GDP per capita & wages, than Poland. Unbelievable considering the current gap.

After that Ukraine stagnated, while Poland quickly progressed between 1990 and 2004 - thanks to which we were accepted into the EU.

=====

The main reasons why Ukraine is so corrupt:

1) They never actually overthrew the Commies - the exact same people continued to be in positions of power after 1991 as before 1991.

2) Russia has been constantly meddling in their internal affairs after 1991, it is in Russia's best interest to keep Ukraine corrupt and poor.

If this would be the same people AND Russian interference, there wouldn't be this conflict. In fact, in the Ukraine a new, Ukrainian based oligarchy was established, which began to compete with the Russian one. That's one of the main causes of this conflict. These Ukrainian oligarchs, with even less control than in Russia, began to do whatever they wanted and they don't want anyone to interfere "in their business". Ukraine as a whole is "part of their business". So they supported a confrontational course against Russia, to get rid of the old pro-Russian oligarchs remaining (like Viktor Medvedchuk, a personal close friend of Putin, which got arrested, his business and media closed, which was the final declaration of political war with Russia by the Selenski regime) and taking over the whole country. The Western alliance is just the back up for them not losing what they gained, "their property", they have stolen from the Ukrainian people, minimum as bad, actually worse, than what you see in Russia.

Any organisation or state taking that Ukraine over, would have to fight these oligarchs or make them influential even in their own organisation or state, because of the sheer wealth and influence they can excel. Ukraine is in this respect a completey failed state, bound together now only by the anti-Russian nationalism. But that won't be enough on the long run. Once there will be, hopefully, peace, the first thing they should do is taking care of this oligarchic "deep state regime" they have. Because that was and still is their main problem. Not a NATO membership, not Russia as such.

They can't because these oligarchs are - in vast majority of cases - Pro-Russian. They probably make very lucrative deals with Putin.

If they remove oligarchs from power, they will get invaded by Russia. So, maybe they did remove them. Since they just got invaded.

No, these oligarchs were taking over, it was just the wrong ones from the Russian perspective. Instead of Medvedchuk it was Poroshenko and Kolomoisky. The latter two are the main figures behind this war and the US Biden connection. They competed with which other as well, which is why Kolomoisky created this comedian regime of Selenski, because unlike Poroshenko, he couldn't do it himself. He doesn't have the looks, the charisma, was decisively unpopular and a sought after criminal. That way Selenski came in, as the alternative to his pro-Western oligarchic competitor, also in business affairs, Poroshenko.
I linked a couple of articles on the issue, just read it.
This war is to a large degree a war of the Ukrainian oligarchs, which being afraid fo Russians taking over again and putting them out of business. Kolomoisky who financed the Azow nationalist battalions and paid bounty money for every killed or captured Russian or pro-Russian Ukrainian, being an enemy of the state in Russia, lost property in Crimea and Russia, and being also a criminal in Ukraine, before Selenski intervened on his behalf and arresting Medvedchuk instead.

This is all a huge farce, people are dying for these corrupted subjects interests, and they just camouflage it as nationalism. Because when the war is over, these guys think they can even grab more of Ukraine, possibly even becoming more important in Russia too as "Western allies". Its a tragedy that people, idealistic people on both sides, fight each other for such corrupt criminals. You can say about Russia whatever you want, but there the state and nation comes first, the oligarchs second. In Ukraine it was the other way around and still is.
 
If this would be the same people AND Russian interference, there wouldn't be this conflict.

The conflict began only AFTER "average Joe" Ukrainians started to stand up against the pro-Russian ex-Soviet Commie oligarchs.

And yes some people from the social circles of those oligarchs "betrayed" and joined the Pro-Western / anti-Russian faction.

This is the case of Yulia Tymoshenko for example - she worked with (or for) pro-Russian oligarchs, but later she betrayed them.
 
In fact, in the Ukraine a new, Ukrainian based oligarchy was established, which began to compete with the Russian one.

Yes, there are people who used to be pro-Russian oligarchs or part of their social circles, but then they betrayed and became pro-Western. However, they no longer operate like oligarchs do. They just have "oligarch past", but they now support democracy, real reforms, and a better administration.

There is no Ukrainian based oligarchy, they now oppose oligarchy and support democracy even if some of them have "oligarch past".

Lech Walesa also used to be a Communist agent before he became the leader of Anti-Communist opposition in Poland.
 
The conflict began only AFTER "average Joe" Ukrainians started to stand up against the pro-Russian ex-Soviet Commie oligarchs.

And yes some people from the social circles of those oligarchs "betrayed" and joined the Pro-Western / anti-Russian faction.

This is the case of Yulia Tymoshenko for example - she worked with (or for) pro-Russian oligarchs, but later she betrayed them.

Read above. The allied up with the US before, and then started this "revolution", which was supported from the start by a group of Ukrainian oligarchs. That's like it is in Kazakhstan. The Western media spoke about public unrest, and there was, but behind the scenes two groups of the oligarchy were fighting each other and this could have turned bloody and chaotic too. But Russia learned its lesson, it won't get any better once foreign powers pick their candidates and begin to support them, in exchange for an "anti-Russian stance".

The main mistake of Putin, looking back in time, was that he waited to long and tried to come up with a diplomatic solution. If he would have intervened right in 2014, on behalf of the then still officially recognised Ukrainian president, it would have been - imho - much easier to really seize control of the Ukraine. Even more, a much larger portion of the population was pro-Russian, than it is now, after years or anti-Russian propaganda and measures by the regimes of first Poroshenko, then Selenski.
He rather acted too late, from the Russian perspective of things, and was giving the Ukrainians the chance for a peaceful, diplomatic solution. Obviously, that was neglected, by Selenski in particular, and here we are...

Yes, there are people who used to be pro-Russian oligarchs or part of their social circles, but then they betrayed and became pro-Western. However, they no longer operate like oligarchs do. They just have "oligarch past", but they now support democracy, real reforms, and a better administration.

There is no Ukrainian based oligarchy, they now oppose oligarchy and support democracy even if some of them have "oligarch past".

That's the propaganda, you believe it? Sorry, that's a lie. People, the common Ukrainian people, want to believe it, mostly. They might agree with you. But the reality is, that the oligarchs got now even more power than ever, they practically run the country. Remind you, Kolomoisky did use the forces he financed for intimidating business competitors and legal prosecutors. Who do you think will get all the property and wealth they now take away from all the "pro-Russian" people? That's just a crooked business, it always was.

Probably, if there is peace and a neutral, independent Ukraine, hopefully, the Ukrainians will begin to deal with this problem. But this regime and war just made it worse. Ukraine is completely in the hands of the oligarchs, this time they just anti-Russian oriented and work with the US administration and services, that's all the difference.
 
The main mistake of Putin, looking back in time, was that he waited to long and tried to come up with a diplomatic solution. If he would have intervened right in 2014, on behalf of the then still officially recognised Ukrainian president, it would have been - imho - much easier to really seize control of the Ukraine.

At least you admit that Putin's goal is to seize control of entire Ukraine and make it part of Russia (and make Lw?w a Russian city at the Polish border - something it has never been, Lw?w was never part of Russia). In one of previous posts you mentioned only establishing a neutral buffer state - but this can only happen if Russian forces suffer a military defeat, while in case if the Russian army emerges victorious in this war, they will undoubtedly annex entire Ukraine into Russia, as they have always planned since Putin became president in 2000.

And I agree that in 2014 it would have been easier to do this, because the Ukrainian army was unprepared back then.

By 2022, the Ukrainian army has been doing nothing else but preparing for a Russian invasion during the last 8 years.
 
At least you admit that Putin's goal is to seize control of entire Ukraine and make it part of Russia

No, he just wanted a friendly regime in Ukraine. That was 2014. But this is now over, and no its about a neutral Ukraine, which gives up on territories Russia won't accept to belong to an anti-Russian Ukraine. Its also the people there which don't want to belong to such an Ukraine any longer. That's the difference between a friendly Ukraine, when the borders didn't matter, and a hostile one, when every border matters.
By 2022, the Ukrainian army has been doing nothing else but preparing for a Russian invasion during the last 8 years.

They constantly shelled and threatened Donbas. You deny it? There was no peace. Russia offered Minsk I and Minks II. Did the Ukrainians implement it, or even tried it? No, they just said they refuse to "negotiate with terrorists" and prepared a violent solution, by driving all pro-Russians out and purging the country. That was the reason for this war.

I'm pretty sure, if Ukraine gives up on these two territories (Donbas and Crimea) and promises lasting neutrality, or at least a blocking period for some decades, the only other thing Russia would demand is that the West offers a pathway out of the sanctions. The Ukraine, stil a large country, could organise itself like it wants, internally, otherwise. Just posing no military threat to Russia and giving up on Crimea in particular.

If the Selenski regime and the West would offer that to Russia (neutral Ukraine, giving up on Crimea and Donbas, water supply guaranteed for Crimea) and the Russians would still go further, and try to suppress all of Ukraine violently, then I would change my stance. I think these are fair demands by the Russians, they are a good compromise for leaving Ukraine into a complete independence. If they don't accept, they have to face Russia, if they accept and still get threatened: Then I would think about the West intervening.
Because the main Ukrainian territories, in particular the West, Russia has only a good reason to attack as long as they don't comply and don't negotiate seriously. If they do give in, and the Russians push further, they lose any legitimation from my point of view. That's kind of the red line for me.
Not like Putin had the right to do what he did up to this point, but this would be yet another red line crossed.

But that would only became an issue once the Ukrainians make serious offers, take negotiations serious and show good will, try to come to terms with the Russians in a honest way and the West support this. As long as they don't give up on Crimea in particular, its their own decision to fight this war, for people which don't want to belong to the Ukrainian state anyway.
Just like the Ukrainians don't want to be suppressed by the Russians, the Crimeans and Donbas people don't want to be suppressed by the Ukrainians. Its simple as that. And I see no just cause for the Ukrainians if they still insist on conquering these territories and people. That's their own decision and I don't support it.
As soon as they fight for their freedom only, its a completely different matter.
 
They constantly shelled and threatened Donbas. You deny it? There was no peace.

It was a Phoney War like that along the French-German border in 1939-1940.

I don't know which side was shelling and threatening the other side more.

Do you really think that Donbas rebels were not shelling Ukrainian territory?
 
I'm pretty sure, if Ukraine gives up on these two territories (Donbas and Crimea) and promises lasting neutrality, or at least a blocking period for some decades, the only other thing Russia would demand is that the West offers a pathway out of the sanctions. The Ukraine, stil a large country, could organise itself like it wants, internally, otherwise. Just posing no military threat to Russia and giving up on Crimea in particular.

Why would they do it if they are winning this war?

I mean, you and Jovialis have been calling for Ukrainian surrender since day one of this war.

But it turns out that Ukrainians are absolutely destroying Russian forces. Now Russia should surrender.

Russian Army was already humiliated losing a war against a bunch of irregular Afghan herders, and then losing another war against Chechen irregular highlanders. So surely they can swallow this pill too. At least this time they are getting smashed by regulars.
 
It is not so uncommon throughout history that the winner in a war ceded territory to the loser.

For example Poland won the Polish-Russian War of 1632-1634, but ceded minor areas to Russia.

So after Ukraine wins, maybe they will agree to give up on Crimea and Donbas. Or maybe not. Who knows?
 
Why would they do it if they are winning this war?

I mean, you and Jovialis have been calling for Ukrainian surrender since day one of this war.

But it turns out that Ukrainians are absolutely destroying Russian forces. Now Russia should surrender.

You call it surrender, I call it a fair compromise. Ukraine wanted to switch sides in its current borders and turn the state into an anti-Russian bastion, right at Russias flank.
That's the problem, if they would have agreed on a compromise, there wouldn't have been a war. Now they call it "surrender", but what do they give up? Only territories which shouldn't belong to an anti-Russian Ukraine anyway, because the local people there too prefer to be with Russia. They want to reconquer and expel people from their homes. Is that just? Or such a great cause? Nothing better than what the Russians demand.

That's the problem: To think its right to get it by force, to press people into submission and suppress them. Russia does it, Ukraine does it too. You just made it clear: They want to conquer those territories by force, and that's where Russia can't just stay on the side and watch. That was their red line.

This attitude and atmosphere caused this war, on both sides. And no, I don't see the Ukrainians winning, they just gained time up to this point, no more. Probably they can win the conventional war, we'll see if they really want to carry on with the bloodbath. But is this really great? And what if they lose, what's next? Calling in US nuclear strikes or what?

You just pointed out what's the problem all along: The Ukrainians don't want to negotiate seriously and honestly with the Russians, because they think they can win over Russia with the help of the USA. That's it, and that's the whole problem of this conflict!

It is not so uncommon throughout history that the winner in a war ceded territory to the loser.

For example Poland won the Polish-Russian War of 1632-1634, but ceded minor areas to Russia.

So after Ukraine wins, maybe they will agree to give up on Crimea and Donbas. Or maybe not. Who knows?
No Russian politician can give up on Crimea without being a persona non grata. That goes far beyond Putin. If the Ukrainians would try to conquer Crimea, I think that's one of the few cases in which Russia, without being attacked from the West before, might use nukes. They might use tactical nuclear weapons to destroy and UAF spearhead which might attack Crimea. Thats the absolute Russian red line. They might give up on everything else, but not on Crimea without a fight, with all they have. Everybody should know that, regardless of how they think about the Russians or Putin or whatever. Don't push the Russians on that issue, just don't do it, it might have horrible consequences and the Russians have minimum as much right on Crimea as the Ukrainians do, everything considered, anyway.
 
^^^
Why does Russia need buffer states everywhere around it, and why does Russia call every state who is not their puppet - an "anti-Russian" state?


There is no other country in existence which demands to be surrounded by "neutral buffer states" from all sides. Why special privileges to Russia?

PS:

You keep forgetting about Transnistria which is like Crimea to Putin - he also wants to "have it back". And to get there, he needs all of South Ukraine.
 
You just pointed out what's the problem all along: The Ukrainians don't want to negotiate seriously and honestly with the Russians, because they think they can win over Russia with the help of the USA. That's it, and that's the whole problem of this conflict!

And I don't think the Ukrainians are that naive. See the story of the no fly zone. They demand but don't get it. The NATO is a defense organization and doesn't want to broaden the conflict to ww3 c.q. nuclear disaster. And Zelenski get's this very well.

The real reason is that Russians don't think they have made enough progress. So the slaughtering goes on and on. With any means if necessary. Bring the Chechen to lib....slaughter the Ukrainians. And the vacuum bombs etc. Defeat is Putin's loss. And that's no go area in Russia now. Even a crack as Lavrov is not allowed to negotiate without the during permission of the boss in the Kremlin.

The Russians are saying that they are opting for peace but meanwhile they upscale the slaughter.
 
^^^
Why does Russia need buffer states everywhere around it, and why does Russia call every state who is not their puppet - an "anti-Russian" state?


There is no other country in existence which demands to be surrounded by "neutral buffer states" from all sides. Why special privileges to Russia?

PS:

You keep forgetting about Transnistria which is like Crimea to Putin - he also wants to "have it back". And to get there, he needs all of South Ukraine.

He just needs one neutral or accepting state, either Moldova or Ukraine. What he doesn't need indeed is two hostile states blocking him. From my point of view, Russia has more rights to control Ukraines East and Crimea than Moldova, because of the ethnic-historical background of these conflicts.

If you are seriously asking who else? The USA are the worst, ever heard about the Monroe doctrine? Or them invading countries all over the world? Even trampling on people and countries for which they have much less of a right than Russia on Ukraine?

Or Chinas demands? All large powers, especially in times of conflict, demand that. Russia was quite open and helpful, it was the USA which blocked them and humiliated the Russians time and time again. Actually, in a lot of these instances, it was Biden personally. Many years ago, when Putin asked whether he can get closer to NATO with Russia, Biden is told to have just laughed and said "try your luck with Iran and China..."

They always offered the treaties only to the "buffer states" around Russia, tried to take one after another away from the Russian sphere of influence, but offered nothing, absolutely nothing for the Russians in return. Quid pro quo? Ever heard that phrase? People like Biden, and Biden even personally, did, deliberately and arrogantly, alienate Russia from the West in the last years, even before 2014, when Russia had still good will and tried to negotiate. They learned their lesson and now they are closer to China than ever and try to fend any additional robbery in their sphere of influence off.

You might say that's not nice, you may say its against the American made international law at times, which being always made and controlled by the USA anyway, but that's just how it is and everybody which tries to understand the Russian position and experience with the USA just for one minute, just one minute, has to agree it has a rationale. If you don't like it, ok, but try to think about other ways to change it than risking a nuclear war. And also think about it, whether its really that desirable that the American oligarchs control the world. I don't want Russian oligarchs to have a say in Europe, but I don't want the Americans either. If the Americans get cocky, if they think they can monopolise power and law as they wish, which they do anyway, especially the current Biden administration, it gets ugly for any European caring for its people, social justice and peace.

Think twice what you wish. The Ukrainians could have done just fine on their own, without the confrontation with Russia. They tried to go the hard way, it was the decision of the Selenski regime. It was a deliberately made decision of the Selenski regime, not some sort of "attack out of the blue" and all that propaganda nonsense. Even if they succeed, militarily, just like I say the same for the Russian side: Is it really worth it? Do regimes sort their differences, especially the ones in questions, out like that? By destroying so much human life? I don't think so. But you have to look at both sides. Iraq was surely more of an innocent victim of the US aggression than Ukraine is now. That's for sure.

The Ukrainians made no acceptable offer to the Russians. Nada. Nothing. Do they think if they state the obvious, that they can't become a NATO member this would be enough at this point? Obviously it can't. That's still no serious negotiation.
 
This post is a complete and deluded shambles.

Why is your moniker SILESIAN ? Silesia isn't in Ukraine.

We are both R1b so we share paternal ancestry.

Are you a self-hating R1b?

Are you Old Europe one day and Steppe on another day?:unsure:

It goes something along these lines. My family have fought for the Germans in prior wars. Silesia a long time ago was contested having German/Slavic/Jewish populations- just as Ukraine(Russian speaking and Ukraine speaking) today. Then one day I struck up a friendly conversation with a Russian, and told him about my last name and how it was not typical German, unlike my maternal side. He laughed and told me it was Slavic, I had a hard time believing it. I also remember another Ukrainian asking me about my ancestry, he had casually mentioned that I could pass for Ukrainian. So I went to the Mormon ancestry records, to investigate my surname, the spelling was changed, to make it appear more German-- in the original Catholic records it was indeed Polish-Slavic as can be. There was also some talk about my father being adopted at the time so nobody knew, but I was sure curious. Then the new science of genetic testing came along 2010+/-. Much to my surprise (my ydna) I was indeed related to Slavic Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, Ukrainians, Russians and I was eager to join all those ydna projects even though we all had different surnames we were all related. Then archeogentic samples started coming in from different parts of Europe. Again another surprise, I was related to Ukraine and Russian kurgan Yamnaya-Catacombe-Serbian-Hungarian Bell Beaker Corded Ware samples. So I don't have the hatred baggage that some Poles do towards Russians. I m neutral, and would love to see everyone get along.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/nati...nazis-feared-exposure-by-news-media-documents

Thrown under the bus-Vietnam, 2012-Benghazi, Afghanistan 2021
FU sound clip.
 

This thread has been viewed 303260 times.

Back
Top