The spread of 'Steppe' DNA and autosomal best-fit analysis

ToBeOrNotToBe said:

I've said, R-Z2118

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OK, my message has been repeated by error. Thanks.

MOESAN said:

Thanks Pip.
the L52 would be 1 French
I found 2 Z2118*: 1 Italian and 1 Turk
+ 1 SNP: 2: 1 English and 1 Italian
+ 2 SNP: 6: 3 Germans, 1 Italian, 1 Irish, 1 Puerto Rico (which country?)
If I understand well, not only Southwestern?

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If you're referring to the yfull database, I don't think the Turk is Z2118*, but just Z2118 awaiting full analysis. I would also say that * does not necessarily imply origin, and often appears to signal just one of a number of sub-divisions.

My coalescence calculations, based on a larger and wider database (FTDNA), all indicate Northern France.

More about the French L52 sample later.

Pip said:

If you're referring to the yfull database, I don't think the Turk is Z2118*, but just Z2118 awaiting full analysis. I would also say that * does not necessarily imply origin, and often appears to signal just one of a number of sub-divisions.

My coalescence calculations, based on a larger and wider database (FTDNA), all indicate Northern France.

More about the French L52 sample later.

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Looking forward to that. Is there any chance you could make a contour map as a percentage(!) like Rocca did for Z2118 (the L51 map I posted)? He did it based on a paper (Myers 2010 or something like that?) I don't know how useful FTDNA is though, as some regions as massively oversampled (e.g. British Isles and America has SO much more than basically any other region)

ToBeOrNotToBe said:

Looking forward to that. Is there any chance you could make a contour map as a percentage(!) like Rocca did for Z2118 (the L51 map I posted)? He did it based on a paper (Myers 2010 or something like that?) I don't know how useful FTDNA is though, as some regions as massively oversampled (e.g. British Isles and America has SO much more than basically any other region)

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Does anyone truly knows how he came up with that map?

Olympus Mons said:

Does anyone truly knows how he came up with that map?

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Rocca made it from the Myres et al paper from 2010, so it's reliable. Even without the map though, lots of lines of evidence point to Iberia and Southern France

ToBeOrNotToBe said:

Rocca made it from the Myres et al paper from 2010, so it's reliable. Even without the map though, lots of lines of evidence point to Iberia and Southern France

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That is what I don't get. How he made it using meyers et al? Can you re do it using that paper?
It looks like he used Solé-Morata et al 2017. If so he just used the percentages identified as M269 (xp312) to build the map.

Olympus Mons said:

That is what I don't get. How he made it using meyers et al? Can you re do it using that paper?
It looks like he used Solé-Morata et al 2017. If so he just used the percentages identified as M269 (xp312) to build the map.

Click to expand...

The map dates to 2012

The problem is that Myres but also Busby made maps, and they do'nt match perfectly one to another; and maybe is would be good to look at map of Y- L11/P151 that show other thing spite it doesn't contradict 100% the maps of L51.
Other problem: these maps seem showing absolute percentages; as I had already asked to Maciamo for all haplos, without answer (I think it's a lot of work), it would be interesting to have the relative percentages to other Y-R1b, and, royal luxury, percentages compared to upstreams to L51 and percentages compared to downstreams.
I know no more where I had the maps we discuss sometimes, but I think they did not mention asbsolute or relative %'s so I think it was absolute %. It can change interpretations of supposed "trails".
I don't exclude totally the southern unique road for L51 or pre-L51 and re-expansion later towards North and East as BBC seems showing AT FIRST SIGHT ; in this hypothesis, L11 and future U106 could have evolved from a North Atlantic West-East coastal move. But today, the distribution of U106, and even ancient DNA, seems checking an East-West move in North Europe or at least North the Carpathians towards maybe Unetice, and Saale post-CWC region. L11 seems strong in Estonia, and I don't know if I can explain it by a not too numerous late pop (less downstreams) of L11+U106 from Germanics. Only an U106 subclades study in Estonia could help here, and better of course, anDNA from there.
What we can suppose is that L51 began to increase demographically around Central Europe and exploded bewteen Central- and West-Europe (SW Germany-E+SE France); the ancestors of U106 could have "wintered" between Moravia and S-Poland before move more northernwards accross ancient CWC and TRBK lands. In Central-Eastern Europe we have to take in account some shifts (Balts, Slavs) that could have reased other pops (R1b, I2a2, these last ones also found today in pops of North Russia).
I think we know very little about the LN BA cultures of the European Northern plain: some new surveys could give us a lot of surprises. Look at the rising of Y-I2a2 in ALPC and GAC, and the "Mars" folk of the Y-I1's, when they seemed definitely swept off or absent.

MOESAN said:

The problem is that Myres but also Busby made maps, and they do'nt match perfectly one to another; and maybe is would be good to look at map of Y- L11/P151 that show other thing spite it doesn't contradict 100% the maps of L51.
Other problem: these maps seem showing absolute percentages; as I had already asked to Maciamo for all haplos, without answer (I think it's a lot of work), it would be interesting to have the relative percentages to other Y-R1b, and, royal luxury, percentages compared to upstreams to L51 and percentages compared to downstreams.
I know no more where I had the maps we discuss sometimes, but I think they did not mention asbsolute or relative %'s so I think it was absolute %. It can change interpretations of supposed "trails".
I don't exclude totally the southern unique road for L51 or pre-L51 and re-expansion later towards North and East as BBC seems showing AT FIRST SIGHT ; in this hypothesis, L11 and future U106 could have evolved from a North Atlantic West-East coastal move. But today, the distribution of U106, and even ancient DNA, seems checking an East-West move in North Europe or at least North the Carpathians towards maybe Unetice, and Saale post-CWC region. L11 seems strong in Estonia, and I don't know if I can explain it by a not too numerous late pop (less downstreams) of L11+U106 from Germanics. Only an U106 subclades study in Estonia could help here, and better of course, anDNA from there.
What we can suppose is that L51 began to increase demographically around Central Europe and exploded bewteen Central- and West-Europe (SW Germany-E+SE France); the ancestors of U106 could have "wintered" between Moravia and S-Poland before move more northernwards accross ancient CWC and TRBK lands. In Central-Eastern Europe we have to take in account some shifts (Balts, Slavs) that could have reased other pops (R1b, I2a2, these last ones also found today in pops of North Russia).
I think we know very little about the LN BA cultures of the European Northern plain: some new surveys could give us a lot of surprises. Look at the rising of Y-I2a2 in ALPC and GAC, and the "Mars" folk of the Y-I1's, when they seemed definitely swept off or absent.

Click to expand...

You should paragraph, nobody is going to want to read all of that

The problem is that Myres but also Busby made maps, and they do'nt match perfectly one to another; and maybe is would be good to look at map of Y- L11/P151 that show other thing spite it doesn't contradict 100% the maps of L51.

Other problem: these maps seem showing absolute percentages; as I had already asked to Maciamo for all haplos, without answer (I think it's a lot of work), it would be interesting to have the relative percentages to other Y-R1b, and, royal luxury, percentages compared to upstreams to L51 and percentages compared to downstreams.

I know no more where I had the maps we discuss sometimes, but I think they did not mention asbsolute or relative %'s so I think it was absolute %. It can change interpretations of supposed "trails".

I don't exclude totally the southern unique road for L51 or pre-L51 and re-expansion later towards North and East as BBC seems showing AT FIRST SIGHT ; in this hypothesis, L11 and future U106 could have evolved from a North Atlantic West-East coastal move. But today, the distribution of U106, and even ancient DNA, seems checking an East-West move in North Europe or at least North the Carpathians towards maybe Unetice, and Saale post-CWC region. L11 seems strong in Estonia, and I don't know if I can explain it by a not too numerous late pop (less downstreams) of L11+U106 from Germanics. Only an U106 subclades study in Estonia could help here, and better of course, anDNA from there.

What we can suppose is that L51 began to increase demographically around Central Europe and exploded bewteen Central- and West-Europe (SW Germany-E+SE France); the ancestors of U106 could have "wintered" between Moravia and S-Poland before move more northernwards accross ancient CWC and TRBK lands. In Central-Eastern Europe we have to take in account some shifts (Balts, Slavs) that could have reased other pops (R1b, I2a2, these last ones also found today in pops of North Russia).

I think we know very little about the LN BA cultures of the European Northern plain: some new surveys could give us a lot of surprises. Look at the rising of Y-I2a2 in ALPC and GAC, and the "Mars" folk of the Y-I1's, when they seemed definitely swept off or absent.

MOESAN said:

The problem is that Myres but also Busby made maps, and they do'nt match perfectly one to another; and maybe is would be good to look at map of Y- L11/P151 that show other thing spite it doesn't contradict 100% the maps of L51.
Other problem: these maps seem showing absolute percentages; as I had already asked to Maciamo for all haplos, without answer (I think it's a lot of work), it would be interesting to have the relative percentages to other Y-R1b, and, royal luxury, percentages compared to upstreams to L51 and percentages compared to downstreams.
I know no more where I had the maps we discuss sometimes, but I think they did not mention asbsolute or relative %'s so I think it was absolute %. It can change interpretations of supposed "trails".
I don't exclude totally the southern unique road for L51 or pre-L51 and re-expansion later towards North and East as BBC seems showing AT FIRST SIGHT ; in this hypothesis, L11 and future U106 could have evolved from a North Atlantic West-East coastal move. But today, the distribution of U106, and even ancient DNA, seems checking an East-West move in North Europe or at least North the Carpathians towards maybe Unetice, and Saale post-CWC region. L11 seems strong in Estonia, and I don't know if I can explain it by a not too numerous late pop (less downstreams) of L11+U106 from Germanics. Only an U106 subclades study in Estonia could help here, and better of course, anDNA from there.
What we can suppose is that L51 began to increase demographically around Central Europe and exploded bewteen Central- and West-Europe (SW Germany-E+SE France); the ancestors of U106 could have "wintered" between Moravia and S-Poland before move more northernwards accross ancient CWC and TRBK lands. In Central-Eastern Europe we have to take in account some shifts (Balts, Slavs) that could have reased other pops (R1b, I2a2, these last ones also found today in pops of North Russia).
I think we know very little about the LN BA cultures of the European Northern plain: some new surveys could give us a lot of surprises. Look at the rising of Y-I2a2 in ALPC and GAC, and the "Mars" folk of the Y-I1's, when they seemed definitely swept off or absent.

Click to expand...

What do you mean by relative percentage, percentages are already relative. If you mean one percentage relative to another to form some kind of relative percentage, I've no idea how that fits in anywhere.

ToBeOrNotToBe said:

The map dates to 2012

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Ok. Really interesting.
Sole-Morata et al 2017 shows something that is awkward for a east to west entry of R1b to the region of Bell beakers, Portugal.

Like in the Map of L51 you have shown, Portuguese people today have a level of M269 XP312 that is not at all "Iberian" but similar to levels only, only, found in Norwest France (Alsace, Nord-Pas-de-Calais) which is the French region that differ from the rest o France, where levels of M269 not P312 is very low indeed. That low level of L51 (?) is also true in TSI (Tuscany 1000 genomes). UK had the highest.

The point is ...

1. Portugal with 12% of M269-XP312 (L51?) is much higher than all other Spanish places, TSI (Tuscany area) and France.
2. Then, the level of Portuguese that are P312 xDF27 is the lowest. So, when P312 entered Portugal was already pretty much DF27.
   1. Note- All labs better start looking for Df27 on Europe ancient samples…
3. Spain is DF27 +Z196. Portugal is not. Portugal has lowest Z196 than even the rest of Europe were we find DF27! And we know that the TMRCA of the son Z196 is very similar to father DF27. They knew each other!

To me, it tells me that the story of L51 departing from the estuary TAGUS river is pretty plausible. We know that there were bell beaker originals and the ones returning centuries later. The ones with steppe admixture (DF27).

Olympus Mons said:

Ok. Really interesting.
Sole-Morata et al 2017 shows something that is awkward for a east to west entry of R1b to the region of Bell beakers, Portugal.

Like in the Map of L51 you have shown, Portuguese people today have a level of M269 XP312 that is not at all "Iberian" but similar to levels only, only, found in Norwest France (Alsace, Nord-Pas-de-Calais) which is the French region that differ from the rest o France, where levels of M269 not P312 is very low indeed. That low level of L51 (?) is also true in TSI (Tuscany 1000 genomes). UK had the highest.

The point is ...

1. Portugal with 12% of M269-XP312 (L51?) is much higher than all other Spanish places, TSI (Tuscany area) and France.
2. Then, the level of Portuguese that are P312 xDF27 is the lowest. So, when P312 entered Portugal was already pretty much DF27.
   1. Note- All labs better start looking for Df27 on Europe ancient samples…
3. Spain is DF27 +Z196. Portugal is not. Portugal has lowest Z196 than even the rest of Europe were we find DF27! And we know that the TMRCA of the son Z196 is very similar to father DF27. They knew each other!

To me, it tells me that the story of L51 departing from the estuary TAGUS river is pretty plausible. We know that there were bell beaker originals and the ones returning centuries later. The ones with steppe admixture (DF27).

Click to expand...

It seems though, looking at the overall distribution of modern L51 subclades, that L51 developed around the West Med. Nothing more specific can be said, as when you deviate from looking at the bigger picture things like founder effects can cloud conclusions. Trying to link it to the specific region in Iberia (and one not on the Mediterranean either) where Bell Beaker pottery is thought to have originated is unfounded. I'd have to see more evidence (mainly archaeological) to connections with Chalcolithic SE Spain.

ToBeOrNotToBe said:

What do you mean by relative percentage, percentages are already relative. If you mean one percentage relative to another to form some kind of relative percentage, I've no idea how that fits in anywhere.

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OK. ... You don't see the differences? If you compare current absolute % between regions at 98% R1B with region (TODAY) at say 10% R1b, you take the risk to false conclusions. IMO, of course.

MOESAN said:

OK. ... You don't see the differences? If you compare current absolute % between regions at 98% R1B with region (TODAY) at say 10% R1b, you take the risk to false conclusions. IMO, of course.

Click to expand...

I don't get what you're saying. The Rocca map shows what proportion of people have that subclade, don't see what more there is to it.

Before I get excited, why hasn't anybody mentioned this?

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I1388 / M
Find location: Marlens, Sur les Barmes, Haute-Savoie
Country: France
Associated label in publication: Beaker Southern France
Date: 2455–2134 calBCE (3805±40 BP, Ly-3099)
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): H
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a (L151)
Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
Colour group: Anatolian farmer (autosomal)
Comments: Clusters closer to Anatolian farmers in f-statistics (sup info p. 155)
Other references: null

I1388, Bell Beaker FR CA (2455–2134 BC), Kit T122731
1 Basque_Spanish + Basque_Spanish + Sardinian + Sardinian @ 3.817203

Potentially very important to note about this sample, I didn't even expect this:


No ANE! Wow...

Hold the phone... doesn't no ANE mean no Steppe?!!! This, and ATP3 (very likely M269)

Even if Eurogene's calculator (ANE K7) isn't 100% accurate, the amount of ANE is tiny to nonexistant!

Unless it's my tiredness kicking in, do people not realise how important this is?! This is R1b-L151, in Southern France no less (and by the Rhône no less too), with absolutely no sign of Steppe.

Instead, it has a lot of WHG, and a lot of ENF too. Rather Basque-like.

Here's some GEDmatch results:

Dodecad V3

Admix Results (sorted):


--------------------------------

Least-squares method.

Using 1 population approximation:
1 French_Basque_HGDP @ 6.255388
2 Spaniards_Behar @ 7.308015
3 Spanish_Dodecad @ 8.500717
4 IBS_1000Genomes @ 9.668809
5 Portuguese_Dodecad @ 13.008020
6 French_Dodecad @ 16.953222
7 French_HGDP @ 18.225637
8 North_Italian_HGDP @ 19.135937
9 Sardinian_HGDP @ 20.059797
10 N_Italian_Dodecad @ 20.566927
11 CEU_HapMap @ 27.782375
12 Tuscan_HGDP @ 28.471436
13 Tuscan_Henn @ 29.000362
14 Orcadian_HGDP @ 29.011871
15 TSI_HapMap @ 29.278687
16 Orkney_1000 Genomes @ 29.363754
17 Tuscan_Xing @ 30.092285
18 N._European_Xing @ 30.404306
19 Argyll_1000 Genomes @ 30.407560
20 O_Italian_Dodecad @ 30.494417

Using 2 populations approximation:
1 50% French_Basque_HGDP +50% Spanish_Dodecad @ 4.110867

Using 3 populations approximation:
1 50% French_Basque_HGDP +25% French_Basque_HGDP +25% Sardinian_HGDP @ 3.222474

Using 4 populations approximation:
1 French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + Sardinian_HGDP @ 3.222474
2 French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + Spanish_Dodecad + Spanish_Dodecad @ 4.110867
3 French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + Spaniards_Behar + Spanish_Dodecad @ 4.119370
4 French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + Spaniards_Behar + Spaniards_Behar @ 4.204851
5 French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + Spanish_Dodecad @ 4.283674
6 French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + IBS_1000Genomes @ 4.346231
7 French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + IBS_1000Genomes + Spanish_Dodecad @ 4.348848
8 French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + IBS_1000Genomes + Spaniards_Behar @ 4.352242
9 French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + IBS_1000Genomes + IBS_1000Genomes @ 4.606418
10 French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + French_Basque_HGDP + Spaniards_Behar @ 4.612026

Eurogenes K13

Admix Results (sorted):


--------------------------------

Least-squares method.

Using 1 population approximation:
1 French_Basque @ 11.634634
2 Spanish_Aragon @ 19.306950
3 Southwest_French @ 19.368647
4 Spanish_Cantabria @ 20.282787
5 Spanish_Castilla_La_Mancha @ 21.567900
6 Spanish_Andalucia @ 22.421295
7 Spanish_Valencia @ 23.562376
8 Spanish_Castilla_Y_Leon @ 24.273760
9 Spanish_Cataluna @ 24.633469
10 Spanish_Murcia @ 24.711010
11 Spanish_Extremadura @ 24.717304
12 Spanish_Galicia @ 24.956760
13 Portuguese @ 26.142401
14 French @ 31.075523
15 Sardinian @ 31.609921
16 North_Italian @ 31.979935
17 South_Dutch @ 35.759365
18 Southwest_English @ 36.058266
19 West_German @ 37.087261
20 Southeast_English @ 37.423923

Using 2 populations approximation:
1 50% French_Basque +50% French_Basque @ 11.634634

Using 3 populations approximation:
1 50% French_Basque +25% French_Basque +25% Sardinian @ 7.968866

Using 4 populations approximation:
1 French_Basque + French_Basque + French_Basque + Sardinian @ 7.968866
2 French_Basque + French_Basque + Sardinian + Southwest_French @ 10.878261
3 French_Basque + French_Basque + Sardinian + Spanish_Aragon @ 11.199285
4 French_Basque + French_Basque + Sardinian + Spanish_Cantabria @ 11.292224
5 French_Basque + French_Basque + French_Basque + French_Basque @ 11.634634
6 French_Basque + French_Basque + Sardinian + Spanish_Castilla_La_Mancha @ 11.790518
7 French_Basque + French_Basque + Sardinian + Spanish_Andalucia @ 12.148671
8 French_Basque + French_Basque + Sardinian + Spanish_Valencia @ 12.334519
9 French_Basque + French_Basque + Sardinian + Spanish_Castilla_Y_Leon @ 12.351787
10 French_Basque + French_Basque + French_Basque + Southwest_French @ 12.354636

MOESAN said:

OK. ... You don't see the differences? If you compare current absolute % between regions at 98% R1B with region (TODAY) at say 10% R1b, you take the risk to false conclusions. IMO, of course.

Click to expand...

Yes.
The 12% of Portuguese that are M269 x p312 is absolute. Because relative to only the r1bs existing in Portugal would be something like 20%.
So, how it looks relatively compare to the others.. . Will run it tomorrow.