How did I2a-Din get to the Balkans?

How did I2a-Din get to the Balkans?


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I see the same problems with the Heruli that I see with the Goths, including that there are I1 subclades that apparently correspond to East Germanic expansions, and yet I2a-Din doesn't match these all that closely. Are you proposing that the Heruli had very different haplogroup distributions compared to other East Germanic peoples? Or that there was a founder effect from some small group of Heruli I2a-Din carriers, even though the Heruli didn't carry much to begin with?

I1 might have been a minority 1-5% in the Goths but it is totally impossible that I1 or any of the other West/North Germanic subclades (R1b-U106/I2a2) could have been the major haplogroup. Look at the impact the Viking invasions had, we can literally see their presence everywhere they settled and this was a situation with people coming over in boats. They still reach a 15-25% frequency in the areas of Britain they settled (I1+I2a2) AND this occured about 500 years AFTER the Gothic migration/invasion of Rome.

The Goths were a tribe SO large that they were able to consistently defeat the Romans AND conquer the Western Roman Empire. This was not a group of settlers coming over in boats either, this was literally their whole tribe spilling south of the Danube to escape the Huns.

If you want to read the entire text of Jordanes I have a link here, http://people.ucalgary.ca/~vandersp/Courses/texts/jordgeti.html

you say that I2a-Din doesn't match the East Germanic Expansions but reading through this all I can see is an exact match
 
In fact, while pointing at the Heruli, I didn't want to rule out the Goths. Let's assume that Ia2-Din originally evolved somewhere on the upper Dniester, and from there initially, in small quantities, spread south-eastwards into Ukraine / Moldowa, and north-westwards into Eastern Poland & Slovakia. Let's furthermore assume that the I2a-Din S and I2a-Din N split already took place on the upper Dniester, with I2a-Din N moving rather to the south-east, and I2a-Din S moving more towards the north-west. The East-Germanic tribes (Bastarnae, Goths, Heruli etc.) would have picked up a bit of I2a-Din S on their way to the Black Sea, and quite a lot of I2a-Din N in Western Ukraine & Moldova. Their incursions into the eastern Balkans, but also their settlement in Moesia as Roman federates, would have brought I2a-Din there. The Bulgars (which I don't qualify as Slavs - we may have a definition problem here) picked up more of I2a-Din N on their way, and probably also served for a re-distribution of the Moesian pool that originated from 3rd / 4th century Roman settlement of East Germanics. Whoever followed them, whether already Slavs, still proto-Slavs, or another linguistic group that later adopted Slavonic, did the same.

I2a-Din S, in the meantime, would have been picked up by Dacians, Iaszyges, and later the Huns, and spread into the northern Pannonian basin. Some of it may already during Roman times have found its way to the southern Bank of the Danube, be it during the Marcomanni incursions, as mercenaries, or seeking refuge from the Huns. The Heruli come into the picture as they provide a plausible explanation for a substantial transfer of NE-Pannonian genes into Illyria and Dalmatia. Note in this respect that during Justinian's wars, while peace negotiations with the Ostrogoths were going on, a massive fleet mainly manned by Illyrian HerulI lay 2 years idle in Salona (just next to the islands of Hvar and Korcula which have extremely high I2a-Din concentrations). Of course, the Avars and then the Slavs should have provided for further gene transfer from NE-Pannonia, either directly or by inducing influx of refugees. But essentially, that would have been the icing on the cake rather than the main cause.

In short - I don't think you can attach a specific ethnic name, be it Sarmatians (Iaszyges), Dacians, Goths, Bastarnae, Heruli, Huns, Bulgars, Avars or Slavs, to the processes that brought I2a-Din to the Balkan. They all played their role.
 
In fact, while pointing at the Heruli, I didn't want to rule out the Goths. Let's assume that Ia2-Din originally evolved somewhere on the upper Dniester, and from there initially, in small quantities, spread south-eastwards into Ukraine / Moldowa, and north-westwards into Eastern Poland & Slovakia. Let's furthermore assume that the I2a-Din S and I2a-Din N split already took place on the upper Dniester, with I2a-Din N moving rather to the south-east, and I2a-Din S moving more towards the north-west. The East-Germanic tribes (Bastarnae, Goths, Heruli etc.) would have picked up a bit of I2a-Din S on their way to the Black Sea, and quite a lot of I2a-Din N in Western Ukraine & Moldova. Their incursions into the eastern Balkans, but also their settlement in Moesia as Roman federates, would have brought I2a-Din there. The Bulgars (which I don't qualify as Slavs - we may have a definition problem here) picked up more of I2a-Din N on their way, and probably also served for a re-distribution of the Moesian pool that originated from 3rd / 4th century Roman settlement of East Germanics. Whoever followed them, whether already Slavs, still proto-Slavs, or another linguistic group that later adopted Slavonic, did the same.

I2a-Din S, in the meantime, would have been picked up by Dacians, Iaszyges, and later the Huns, and spread into the northern Pannonian basin. Some of it may already during Roman times have found its way to the southern Bank of the Danube, be it during the Marcomanni incursions, as mercenaries, or seeking refuge from the Huns. The Heruli come into the picture as they provide a plausible explanation for a substantial transfer of NE-Pannonian genes into Illyria and Dalmatia. Note in this respect that during Justinian's wars, while peace negotiations with the Ostrogoths were going on, a massive fleet mainly manned by Illyrian HerulI lay 2 years idle in Salona (just next to the islands of Hvar and Korcula which have extremely high I2a-Din concentrations). Of course, the Avars and then the Slavs should have provided for further gene transfer from NE-Pannonia, either directly or by inducing influx of refugees. But essentially, that would have been the icing on the cake rather than the main cause.

In short - I don't think you can attach a specific ethnic name, be it Sarmatians (Iaszyges), Dacians, Goths, Bastarnae, Heruli, Huns, Bulgars, Avars or Slavs, to the processes that brought I2a-Din to the Balkan. They all played their role.

Heruli = Hirri to some historians ...............seafarers who settled also in estonia and samogitia ( lithuanians)
http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper...abetic+letter=H:entry+group=5:entry=hirri-geo

Heruli were the forefathers of modern Samogitians. In prehistoric times they were called "Hirri" or "Giriai", which means "Forest Dwellers" (the Prusso-Lithuanic word "giria" means "forest"). The earliest record about the "Hirri" we find in the writings of Plinius. Plinius stated that the territory extending from the Vistula river, as far as Eningia (probably he meant Feningia = Finland). ---- "Nec minor opinione Eningia. Quidam haec habitari ad Vistulam a Sarmatis, Venedis, Sciris, Hirris, tradunt". ----- Plinius, IV. 27.
Later, the Hirri were known as Hirruli or Heruli.

 
I1 might have been a minority 1-5% in the Goths but it is totally impossible that I1 or any of the other West/North Germanic subclades (R1b-U106/I2a2) could have been the major haplogroup.

I1 was only 1-5% of the Goths? Yikes. You know that much of the Balkans have 5%-10% range of I1 levels, right? So if we accept that the I1 in the region is largely from the Goths, and there hasn't been major changes in their internal haplogroup percentages, that would imply that Goths contributed nearly 100% of the patrilines of the region. Even if we accept that the Goths had as much as an impact as you believe they did, that seems extreme. If instead you say that Eastern European I1 has a different source than East Germanic peoples, who would it be?

I know you won't accept my rejection of I2a-Din as Gothic, but I think that there are good reasons to guess that Goths had quite high levels of I1. The most important reason to me is the I1:R1b-U106 ratio in Eastern Europe. Among West Germanic peoples, the ratio is low, but in Eastern Europe, it is high.

It doesn't really matter whether or not Goths had high levels of I1 to support my analysis, anyway. It's sufficient to note how Eastern European I1 distributions differ from I1 distributions among West and North Germanic peoples, and use it to gauge what East Germanic peoples must have carried. Note relatively high levels of I1-Z63 in particular, including it being found in a known descendant of Crimean Goths. So based on that, we can track I1-Z63 and compare it to I2a-Din. It doesn't match all that well.

Look at the impact the Viking invasions had, we can literally see their presence everywhere they settled and this was a situation with people coming over in boats. They still reach a 15-25% frequency in the areas of Britain they settled (I1+I2a2) AND this occured about 500 years AFTER the Gothic migration/invasion of Rome.

Are you saying that most of the I1 and I2-M223 in Britain is from the Vikings? I'd argue that the high I1-Z58:I1-L22 ratio in Britain implies that the large majority of I1 in Britain is West Germanic (i.e. Anglo-Saxon) rather than North Germanic (i.e. Viking) in origin. I2-M223 is even more complicated because a not-insignificant amount of it in Britain is pre-Anglo-Saxon.
 
I1 was only 1-5% of the Goths? Yikes. You know that much of the Balkans have 5%-10% range of I1 levels, right? So if we accept that the I1 in the region is largely from the Goths, and there hasn't been major changes in their internal haplogroup percentages, that would imply that Goths contributed nearly 100% of the patrilines of the region. Even if we accept that the Goths had as much as an impact as you believe they did, that seems extreme. If instead you say that Eastern European I1 has a different source than East Germanic peoples, who would it be?

I know you won't accept my rejection of I2a-Din as Gothic, but I think that there are good reasons to guess that Goths had quite high levels of I1. The most important reason to me is the I1:R1b-U106 ratio in Eastern Europe. Among West Germanic peoples, the ratio is low, but in Eastern Europe, it is high.

It doesn't really matter whether or not Goths had high levels of I1 to support my analysis, anyway. It's sufficient to note how Eastern European I1 distributions differ from I1 distributions among West and North Germanic peoples, and use it to gauge what East Germanic peoples must have carried. Note relatively high levels of I1-Z63 in particular, including it being found in a known descendant of Crimean Goths. So based on that, we can track I1-Z63 and compare it to I2a-Din. It doesn't match all that well.



Are you saying that most of the I1 and I2-M223 in Britain is from the Vikings? I'd argue that the high I1-Z58:I1-L22 ratio in Britain implies that the large majority of I1 in Britain is West Germanic (i.e. Anglo-Saxon) rather than North Germanic (i.e. Viking) in origin. I2-M223 is even more complicated because a not-insignificant amount of it in Britain is pre-Anglo-Saxon.


I was going by Maciamo's I1 map which suggests there is a lot less than the actual Data, but I can't find the studies he is using for the I1 data in his sources. I see now that the data suggests there is a 5-10% frequency in a minority of the Balkan countries. I do not doubt that Z63 was probably spread by a Gothic migration, but it does not match historical settlements of these people the way that I2a1 does.

The disconnect I see is where we see the final settlement of the Goths, particularly the Ostrogoths. This huge tribe was settled in Pannonia, south of the Danube permanently and throughout all of recorded history was never moved again and integrated into the Roman empire. Only a minority of them would have been settled in Rome and those there would have been a small drop in a large pool rather than a big drop in a small one like Pannonia. The only theory that can explain the peaks of I2a1 in Bosnia/Croatia is the Gothic one. It is unfortunate that the other study I posted on the Croatian island frequencies didn't investigate deeper subclades.

There are so many known Gothic grave sites in Europe that could give a definitive answer to all of this, how do we crowdfund an Ancient DNA sampling! I'd contribute at least $100. :D

I don't want to touch on the vikings in Britain too much, but arguing how much I DNA came with the Angles/Saxons VS the Vikings is splitting hairs. The Angles/Saxons were only coming in to Britain after the Gothic migrations anyway (Why did the Romans leave again ;) ), and if you add up the U106+I1 it adds up to a whole lot more, a little reminiscent of our Herzegovinian frequencies, and again, people in boats vs people on land.

I think we need a thread on I2a1 M26 and the Vandals. Now that we know that there is a I2a Din North & an I2a Din South I think these are good candidates for our Visigoth/Ostrogoth labels. Remember that these people were left Scandinavia Circa 200 B.C. so they had about 500 years to expand in their second homeland of Ukraine.
 
Mozart - Do I understand you correctly that you think the Goths (originally mainly I1, maybe with a bit of R1a/b) picked up a lot of I2a Din along the middle/ upper Vistula and/ or in Western Ukraine, making them quite I2a Din-loaded? They would then have spread it along their paths through the Balkans (plus during their settlement as Roman federates in Moesia), with the bulk ending up in Pannonia and Dalmatia where they ultimately took residence. May well have been a major factor, indeed.
This leaves, however, to be answered what brought forward the obviously different distribution of I2a Din N vs. S (any frequency figures on this, alongside I1, which is obviously an East Germanic marker, across the Balkans would be appreciated).
The other question is whether, from recent data, I2a Din still appears to have a diversity peak along the middle Danube in Eastern Austria, Western Hungary and Slovakia (the original links to this are down, but maybe Sparkey can give an update). If so, it would be interesting whether the peak is rather on the Roman side of the Danube (which would point towards the Goths), or on the "barbarian" side (which would bring Dacians, Sarmatians and ultimately Heruli in play). However, most likely it will be difficult to establish such a secondary center of diversity with sufficient geographical precision.
 
In short - I don't think you can attach a specific ethnic name, be it Sarmatians (Iaszyges), Dacians, Goths, Bastarnae, Heruli, Huns, Bulgars, Avars or Slavs, to the processes that brought I2a-Din to the Balkan. They all played their role.

Geographic distribution of I2a-Din in the Western Balkans is to compact for scenario with multiple waves. My impression is that the arrival of I2a-Din was one large event. It my had lasted for several decades, but it was not split in completely independent waves.
Specifically the crucial event, as I see this, was the fall of the Kingdom of Gepids in 567. After that large number of Slavs moved from Wallachia towards West and Southwest. During the following decades Byzantine empire gradually lost the control of different parts of the Balkans, thus allowing uncontrolled arrival of I2a-Din.
 
Mozart - Do I understand you correctly that you think the Goths (originally mainly I1, maybe with a bit of R1a/b) picked up a lot of I2a Din along the middle/ upper Vistula and/ or in Western Ukraine, making them quite I2a Din-loaded?

"Picking up" large number of people does not make much sense. Why would some mobile tribe bother about moving some ordinary and not related people from one area to another, thus decrising its combat readiness.
 
I was going to make a post about the Goths but I'll have to come up with a different way to post it as the forum apparently dislikes it when I past in images from ms word :(
 
Mozart - Do I understand you correctly that you think the Goths (originally mainly I1, maybe with a bit of R1a/b) picked up a lot of I2a Din along the middle/ upper Vistula and/ or in Western Ukraine, making them quite I2a Din-loaded?

No I think that all the Goths were Primarily an I2a Din tribe and that the Din mutation occurred in Scandinavia (South Sweden Gotland). Why don't we find much of it there today? Because the Tribe left.

Chernyakhov.PNG


Green - Götaland
Pink - the island of Gotland
Red - Wielbark Culture in the early 3rd century
Orange - Chernyakhov culture, in the early 4th century
Pruple - Roman Empire

The Wielbark culture (German: Wielbark-Willenberg-Kultur, Polish: Kultura wielbarska, Ukrainian: Вельбарська культура (Vel’bars’ka kul’tura)) or East Pomeranian-Mazovian[1] is part of an Iron Age archaeological complex that dates from the 1st century AD to the 4th century AD.
It replaced the Oksywie culture, in the area of modern-day Eastern Pomerania around the lower Vistula river, which was related to the Przeworsk culture.
Wielbark culture contained Venedi, Rugians, Goths, and Gepids located mainly in Pomerania and West Prussia later spreading down the east side into Podlasie and the southern Ukraine.[2]
 
"Picking up" large number of people does not make much sense. Why would some mobile tribe bother about moving some ordinary and not related people from one area to another, thus decrising its combat readiness.

Because that's what is recorded in gothic history, as they moved they conquered and adsorbed many tribes into their armies. This is because the Goths where not a great nation of numbers.
 
Ok, lets clear this out. When exactly did Goths, which were I2a-Din come to Western Balkans?
 
No I think that all the Goths were Primarily an I2a Din tribe and that the Din mutation occurred in Scandinavia (South Sweden Gotland). Why don't we find much of it there today? Because the Tribe left.

Chernyakhov.PNG


Green - Götaland
Pink - the island of Gotland
Red - Wielbark Culture in the early 3rd century
Orange - Chernyakhov culture, in the early 4th century
Pruple - Roman Empire

The Wielbark culture (German: Wielbark-Willenberg-Kultur, Polish: Kultura wielbarska, Ukrainian: Вельбарська культура (Vel’bars’ka kul’tura)) or East Pomeranian-Mazovian[1] is part of an Iron Age archaeological complex that dates from the 1st century AD to the 4th century AD.
It replaced the Oksywie culture, in the area of modern-day Eastern Pomerania around the lower Vistula river, which was related to the Przeworsk culture.
Wielbark culture contained Venedi, Rugians, Goths, and Gepids located mainly in Pomerania and West Prussia later spreading down the east side into Podlasie and the southern Ukraine.[2]

Recent Archeology findings indicate that the goths where originally from the Vistula delta-Gdansk area.........they sent some people to gotland and sweden for migrating, but retained their homeland of coastal Poland. They had a policy of culling their numbers via migration by 30% every so often. this "culling" was done by lot system


If I remember the order correctly , its orange, green, blue and then yellow ( or was it orange, blue, yellow and green......matters little) .............after this they decided to move, they invaded the coastal area next to green and conquered the Venedi and Aestii.........then they moved south absorbing the Bastanae and then finally reaching the Black sea
 
Because that's what is recorded in gothic history, as they moved they conquered and adsorbed many tribes into their armies. This is because the Goths where not a great nation of numbers.

There is nothing in Gothic history about them absorbing tribes into their armies.
 
Recent Archeology findings indicate that the goths where originally from the Vistula delta-Gdansk area.........they sent some people to gotland and sweden for migrating, but retained their homeland of coastal Poland. They had a policy of culling their numbers via migration by 30% every so often. this "culling" was done by lot system


If I remember the order correctly , its orange, green, blue and then yellow ( or was it orange, blue, yellow and green......matters little) .............after this they decided to move, they invaded the coastal area next to green and conquered the Venedi and Aestii.........then they moved south absorbing the Bastanae and then finally reaching the Black sea

All wrong, Sweden they referred to as "Scandza" they left Sweden and named the land they migrated to Gothiscandza, read Jordanes here:

IV (25) Now from this island of Scandza, as from a hive of races or a womb of nations, the Goths are said to have come forth long ago under their king, Berig by name. As soon as they disembarked from their ships and set foot on the land, they straightway gave their name to the place. And even to-day it is said to be called Gothiscandza. (26) Soon they moved from here to the abodes of the Ulmerugi, who then dwelt on the shores of Ocean, where they pitched camp, joined battle with them and drove them from their homes. Then they subdued their neighbors, the Vandals, and thus added to their victories. But when the number of the people increased greatly and Filimer, son of Gadaric, reigned as king--about the fifth since Berig--he decided that the army of the Goths with their families should move from that region. (27) In search of suitable homes and pleasant places they came to the land of Scythia, called Oium in that tongue. Here they were delighted with the great richness of the country, and it is said that when half the army had been brought over, the bridge whereby they had crossed the river fell in utter ruin, nor could anyone thereafter pass to or from. For the place is said to be surrounded by quaking bogs and an encircling abyss, so that by this double obstacle nature has made it inaccessible. And even to-day one may hear in that neighborhood the lowing of cattle and may find traces of men, if we are to believe the stories of travellers, although we must grant that they hear these things from afar




There are many points within the full text where he refers to the Goths as a "Race" of people. Definitely not a confederation of tribes.
 
All wrong, Sweden they referred to as "Scandza" they left Sweden and named the land they migrated to Gothiscandza, read Jordanes here:

IV (25) Now from this island of Scandza, as from a hive of races or a womb of nations, the Goths are said to have come forth long ago under their king, Berig by name. As soon as they disembarked from their ships and set foot on the land, they straightway gave their name to the place. And even to-day it is said to be called Gothiscandza. (26) Soon they moved from here to the abodes of the Ulmerugi, who then dwelt on the shores of Ocean, where they pitched camp, joined battle with them and drove them from their homes. Then they subdued their neighbors, the Vandals, and thus added to their victories. But when the number of the people increased greatly and Filimer, son of Gadaric, reigned as king--about the fifth since Berig--he decided that the army of the Goths with their families should move from that region. (27) In search of suitable homes and pleasant places they came to the land of Scythia, called Oium in that tongue. Here they were delighted with the great richness of the country, and it is said that when half the army had been brought over, the bridge whereby they had crossed the river fell in utter ruin, nor could anyone thereafter pass to or from. For the place is said to be surrounded by quaking bogs and an encircling abyss, so that by this double obstacle nature has made it inaccessible. And even to-day one may hear in that neighborhood the lowing of cattle and may find traces of men, if we are to believe the stories of travellers, although we must grant that they hear these things from afar




There are many points within the full text where he refers to the Goths as a "Race" of people. Definitely not a confederation of tribes.

Jordanes is not trusted as accurate to modern scholars and historians in his earlier accounts of Goths....he is only taken seriously from when the goths arrived on the black sea. You can check this out yourself or see threads about it here

The original goths are Guttones and Gepids...........as all historians quote, these reside on coastla Poland.

The Earliest historian who quoted the Goths is below
Pytheas (who wrote c.320 BC):
Pytheas says that the Gutones, inhabit the shores of an estuary of the ocean ... at one day's sail from this territory is the Isle of Abalus, upon the shores of which, amber is thrown up by the waves in spring ... the inhabitants ... sell it to their neighbours, the Teutones.

Amber is found in east Prussia, one days sail from the vistula delta area

Around the mouth of the Vistula in modern Pomerelia (Poland), the Nordic-influenced Wielbark culture (c. 30 to 400 AD) was once thought to reflect the arrival of the Goths. Yet Pytheas tells us that the Gutones were living there ( coastal poland) centuries earlier. Archaeologists have pointed to the continuity of the Wielbark culture from earlier cultures in the same area.
 
There are many points within the full text where he refers to the Goths as a "Race" of people. Definitely not a confederation of tribes.

thats not what I said

I said they are a race that absorbed other people into their race..........you need to remember that Goths where around for very many centuries, over time other merged with them to also become goths
 
Probably I'm impatient, but is anyone going to answer my simple question?

after they started attacking the dacians.........the dacians fled into Roman lands to escape .............so its while Roman empire still existed
 
Jordanes is not trusted as accurate to modern scholars and historians in his earlier accounts of Goths....he is only taken seriously from when the goths arrived on the black sea. You can check this out yourself or see threads about it here

The original goths are Guttones and Gepids...........as all historians quote, these reside on coastla Poland.

The Earliest historian who quoted the Goths is below
Pytheas (who wrote c.320 BC):
Pytheas says that the Gutones, inhabit the shores of an estuary of the ocean ... at one day's sail from this territory is the Isle of Abalus, upon the shores of which, amber is thrown up by the waves in spring ... the inhabitants ... sell it to their neighbours, the Teutones.

Amber is found in east Prussia, one days sail from the vistula delta area

Around the mouth of the Vistula in modern Pomerelia (Poland), the Nordic-influenced Wielbark culture (c. 30 to 400 AD) was once thought to reflect the arrival of the Goths. Yet Pytheas tells us that the Gutones were living there ( coastal poland) centuries earlier. Archaeologists have pointed to the continuity of the Wielbark culture from earlier cultures in the same area.

Nothing Pytheas wrote there contradicts what Jordanes wrote, whether it is pre-Goth gutones or Goths by another name is irrelevant. It is estimated that the Germanic migrations began in 750 B.C., there is nothing conflicting with a 320 B.C. or earlier settlement of Gothiscandza. These were oral traditions passed down by a people for centuries, you think they made it up or got it wrong? Jordanes was a Goth himself and the criticisms of his history are all minor labeling issues nothing with the history itself.
 

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