Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

bicicleur 2 said:
Left wing populism exists too, but it has never been labeled populist.
It's even been accepted as mainstream.

That's why the horrors of Stalin were never exposed in post-war Europe.
Holodomor in Ukraine is one example of this.

The PTB-PVDA in Belgium is one such movement.
They defended Putin invading Ukraine, but then they made a U-turn because their position was not sustainable.
Click to expand...

You are right although I would say radical left or (ex) communist like Die Linke in Germany too.....

And don't forget in your own country het Vlaams Belang (authoritarian right wing populist) they are real Putting adept....in this respect mention in one word with the PvdA Belgium. Both Putin diehards.

Here Vlaams Belang Filip de Winter with Sergey Naryshkin head of the FSB:



https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/van-...ebben-die-extremen-toch-met-rusland~b6743dad/
 
Northener said:
You are right although I would say radical left or (ex) communist like Die Linke in Germany too.....

And don't forget in your own country het Vlaams Belang (authoritarian right wing populist) they are real Putting adept....in this respect mention in one word with the PvdA Belgium. Both Putin diehards.

Here Vlaams Belang Filip de Winter with Sergey Naryshkin head of the FSB:



https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/van-...ebben-die-extremen-toch-met-rusland~b6743dad/
Click to expand...

yes, Vlaams Belang had links too
but they condemned the invasion of Ukraine spontaneaously
while PTB took a U-turn only a week later

but that is not my point

there is a 'cordon sanitaire' around Vlaams Belang in Belgium
nobody wants to be associated with them

but with PTB it's different
they are considered mainstream
they are not considered populists
they use the same tactics and propaganda and misinformation
but their ideas seem to be normal
they are salonfähig

and in the previous century the links of the western European socialist parties with the former communist sovjets were as deep
as the links today between Putin and extreme right

because of their censorship we didn't know about the holodomor
and these parties are still in coalitians of most west-European countries today
albeit with different politicians and a different rhetoric

at least they should have distanciated themselves from their own past for that
 
Jovialis said:
This post on Twitter is an example of crude left-wing populism.
Click to expand...
Comes across like a racist. I have paternal ancestors in the Kurgans in Ukraine and Russia and they are related the ancient Latins. I wonder if Putin and Shelenshky belong to R1a clade? So much hatered and negative energy.
 
bicicleur 2 said:
It's not only the weakness of the Russian army.
It's also the courage and fierceness of the Ukrainian people.
And the fact that Ukraine has had 8 years experience in resisting the rebels in the eastern provinces.
Click to expand...
However their noble sacrifice cannot stop continuous Russian attacks like mongol who killed half population in Iran and Iraq, "surrender or no mercy." I think CCP also saw the weakness of Russian army, hence, they never cut off the lifeline to Russia. As I remember, the last chinese war experience is they were defeated by vietnamese long time ago.
 
johen said:
However their noble sacrifice cannot stop continuous Russian attacks like mongol who killed half population in Iran and Iraq, "surrender or no mercy."
Click to expand...

The difference in Medieval times and especially with the Mongols was though, that they offered a capitulation only at the beginning, once the fighting started, there was no mercy any longer, even if they tried to surrender. That was to bring cities and people to lay down their weapons beforehand, not risking a fight to begin with.
That's completely different here, they an always surrender and won't all be slaughtered.

There was a rule in Medieval Europe in the past, once the battering ram hit the town gate, there was no mercy guaranteed any longer. That was, because the losses up to that point were often so high, that having mercy with the defenders, once they got broken, would have been seen as unfair. The attacker usually has the disadvantage in a city siege, especially when its about closing in. But then again, the situation is very different now.
 
Riverman said:
The difference in Medieval times and especially with the Mongols was though, that they offered a capitulation only at the beginning, once the fighting started, there was no mercy any longer, even if they tried to surrender. That was to bring cities and people to lay down their weapons beforehand, not risking a fight to begin with.
That's completely different here, they an always surrender and won't all be slaughtered.

There was a rule in Medieval Europe in the past, once the battering ram hit the town gate, there was no mercy guaranteed any longer. That was, because the losses up to that point were often so high, that having mercy with the defenders, once they got broken, would have been seen as unfair. The attacker usually has the disadvantage in a city siege, especially when its about closing in. But then again, the situation is very different now.
Click to expand...
The Battle of Samarra bend was their first loss. Modern day R1b Z2109 are still found there as well as the ruins fortresses of Sintashta. There was no Mongol paternal lineages left in Bashkirs.
 
bicicleur 2 said:
yes, Vlaams Belang had links too
but they condemned the invasion of Ukraine spontaneaously
while PTB took a U-turn only a week later

but that is not my point

there is a 'cordon sanitaire' around Vlaams Belang in Belgium
nobody wants to be associated with them

but with PTB it's different
they are considered mainstream
they are not considered populists
they use the same tactics and propaganda and misinformation
but their ideas seem to be normal
they are salonfähig

and in the previous century the links of the western European socialist parties with the former communist sovjets were as deep
as the links today between Putin and extreme right

because of their censorship we didn't know about the holodomor
and these parties are still in coalitians of most west-European countries today
albeit with different politicians and a different rhetoric

at least they should have distanciated themselves from their own past for that
Click to expand...

I completely agree. There are senior British government officials who are still convinced that Harold Wilson, Labour Party Leader and twice PM of Great Britain, was a Communist agent. If not a Communist agent I would submit he was at least a fellow traveler.

It should be no surprise. The British Intelligence Services were riddled with Soviet operatives. For those who aren't aware, look up "The Cambridge Five". They were never punished. The story goes it was because they were all upper class and their friends didn't want to see them hanged, as they should have been. In actuality, they probably protected a lot more who stayed behind.

In the U.S. the fellow travelers like Lillian Hellman and hundreds more were lionized on college campuses, and still have their adherents today.

It seemed, at times, as if Che Guevara posters were up in every other dorm room, that murderous thug. I'd bet he's still up in the rooms of "The Squad", although I think they lean more toward China nowadays. How many people lionized Mao on those same campuses?

Our democracies and free speech can't be saved by just looking for the enemies on the right; there are enemies on the left too, and they're more numerous and have more power, at least in the U.S.
 
I would argue that the Left has not been lost to the populist wing in the US it is desperately trying to stay center, it had moved center right in my opinion during the Clinton years and its slowly having to move more towards the left of the Civil Rights era. The Dems thwarted their populist choice, Sanders, twice, the RNC on the other hand was hoping for Jeb Bush to win the nomination in 2016 but Trump wrecked him and now they have to placate their empowered populist base whereas the Dems don't. Sadly I don't see any viable candidates on either side and if Trump is still in the run I think he still has a good chance of demolishing the competition on the right, the guy just has crazy Charisma with his base...I just worry we will enter a Trump dynasty he'll definitely keep it in the family...If both parties were smart they should agree to passing a bill to limit the age of those seeking the presidency to 75:embarassed:

Well on thinking a little both parties are being pulled, Ted Cruz and his crazy ilk with the Tea Party movement on the right and on the Left you have AOC and her squad. Either way the fact that both parties are losing out to their populist wings is a sign they screwed up...there I go ranting again sorry!
 
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Tomenable said:
Weakness of the Russian army explained:

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502673952572854278
Click to expand...


Wow, a lot of Russians, Ukrainians, Poles, share the same paternal male ancestor. If you take away the borders you can see groups<brothers> of R1a-M458 versus R1a-M458

R-M458_frequency_distribution.PNG
 
firetown said:
A good father doesn't pass on his own confusion
Click to expand...

I just had a look at the regiment my great grandfather served in world war 1 as a sniper<Königin Augusta Garde-Grenadier-Regiment Nr. 4>. Thanks to the advancement of modern day genetic tests we can see who is paternally related. I bet he would have never imagined his great grandson joining dna projects that are paternally related to Russians and Ukrainians.
 
bicicleur 2 said:
yes, Vlaams Belang had links too
but they condemned the invasion of Ukraine spontaneaously
while PTB took a U-turn only a week later

but that is not my point

there is a 'cordon sanitaire' around Vlaams Belang in Belgium
nobody wants to be associated with them

but with PTB it's different
they are considered mainstream
they are not considered populists
they use the same tactics and propaganda and misinformation
but their ideas seem to be normal
they are salonfähig

and in the previous century the links of the western European socialist parties with the former communist sovjets were as deep
as the links today between Putin and extreme right

because of their censorship we didn't know about the holodomor
and these parties are still in coalitians of most west-European countries today
albeit with different politicians and a different rhetoric

at least they should have distanciated themselves from their own past for that
Click to expand...

We live in 2022 not in 1986 or 1933....the coordinates have chanced (although there is some continuity).

The ideological Rasputin behind Putin namely Alexandr Dugin has given one clear task: to crush western democracy (thought) as we know it.

The fourth theory has to fulfill that task were the other two contesters have failed: fascism and communism.

Dugin has made a new totalitarian elixer out of it.

And of course Putin's clan at the Kremlin has lots of experience in the KGB. So the last years we have seen a brought network all over Europe that have ideological and organizational ties with Putin's Kremlin.

There are some radical left, old commies, that have also that ties like PTB in Belgium and Die Linke in Germany. But there are real fringe party's with less or no growth potential. Not real fulfillers of the task.

The right wing authoritarian populist are much better contester for Western democracies, in every European country they were very popular the last years! So they are a much much better Putin's fifth column in Europe.

The apologist in the West have reacted on the war in the Ukraine like Riverman does, F orum voor Democratie in the Netherlands (all recent): 'Putin is a great guy', 'the West is to blame' and very recently 'the action of the Russian army are mild'. Bla bla bla. Now we clearly can see that the human slaughter goes one with the meanest stuff on earth vacuum bombs, cluster bombs are already used. And when they still have to upscale the war a 'tactical nuclear wapen' is not excluded. Still the fifth column is telling the frames from the Kremlin.....

Last nut not least there is one thing we different I would care if my country was taken over by Putin's Kremlin I don't want to wake up in a repressive and totalitarian regime in which human dignity has 0.0 value.
 
johen said:
However their noble sacrifice cannot stop continuous Russian attacks like mongol who killed half population in Iran and Iraq, "surrender or no mercy." I think CCP also saw the weakness of Russian army, hence, they never cut off the lifeline to Russia. As I remember, the last chinese war experience is they were defeated by vietnamese long time ago.
Click to expand...

Iran and Iraq?
You forget to mention Kiev itself.
The Mongols killed over 95 % of the population there.
 
Angela said:
It's all just excuses, as always. Their military was just as incompetent in World War II. They were saved by their weather, Hitler's stupidity in not factoring that in and not having proper supply lines bkz it was more important to use the trains to transport Jews to extermination camps than to feed the troops, and the willingness of Russian soldiers to blindly follow orders and just accept being used as cannon fodder. All they ever do is throw their poor soldiers at the enemy. Strategy, logistics etc. seem alien to them. I mean, I'm no graduate of one of the military academies, but who would think it's a good idea to line all your tanks up out on open roads with no cover, no plans for re-supplying them, no engineers to rebuild blown up bridges, etc. etc. What are they teaching in "their" military academies.

In less than two weeks they're going to lose as many young men as the U.S. lost in all the years fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq.

I don't know what explains it. It can't be cognitive inferiority, can it, of the people who go into the military? Is it because when you are under the rule of an autocrat you can't admit you made a mistake or the plan someone above you put into place is stupid?

It goes beyond the military too. There's no reason Russia should be such a backward country in terms of industry etc.
Click to expand...

The Russian army in WW1 was also pretty badly led and the defeats at the hands of the Germans and Austro-Hungarians sparked off a great deal of the discontent which led to the Russian Revolution in 1917.

As for WW2, Khruschev admitted after the war that Russia would not have survived without Western convoy supplies from the USA and Britain.
 
Northener said:
We live in 2022 not in 1986 or 1933....the coordinates have chanced (although there is some continuity).

The ideological Rasputin behind Putin namely Alexandr Dugin has given one clear task: to crush western democracy (thought) as we know it.

The fourth theory has to fulfill that task were the other two contesters have failed: fascism and communism.

Dugin has made a new totalitarian elixer out of it.

And of course Putin's clan at the Kremlin has lots of experience in the KGB. So the last years we have seen a brought network all over Europe that have ideological and organizational ties with Putin's Kremlin.

There are some radical left, old commies, that have also that ties like PTB in Belgium and Die Linke in Germany. But there are real fringe party's with less or no growth potential. Not real fulfillers of the task.

The right wing authoritarian populist are much better contester for Western democracies, in every European country they were very popular the last years! So they are a much much better Putin's fifth column in Europe.

The apologist in the West have reacted on the war in the Ukraine like Riverman does, F orum voor Democratie in the Netherlands (all recent): 'Putin is a great guy', 'the West is to blame' and very recently 'the action of the Russian army are mild'. Bla bla bla. Now we clearly can see that the human slaughter goes one with the meanest stuff on earth vacuum bombs, cluster bombs are already used. And when they still have to upscale the war a 'tactical nuclear wapen' is not excluded. Still the fifth column is telling the frames from the Kremlin.....

Last nut not least there is one thing we different I would care if my country was taken over by Putin's Kremlin I don't want to wake up in a repressive and totalitarian regime in which human dignity has 0.0 value.
Click to expand...

first of all, the indignation is selective
if you want to be credible you have to condemn both extremes

second, it is not true that extreme right is a threat and extreme left is not
at least in Belgium, the extreme right gets most of its votes from people who are not exteme right, but dissatisfied by the political elite that rules the country
the Vlaams Belang is orienting itself more and more toward these voters instead of the extreme right,
Filip Dewinter is still oriented to the extreme right, but his influence within the party diminishes every year

if the political establishment would show more leadership and efficient government, there would be only a tiny extreme right of less than 1 %
the same goes in America where Trump gets a lot of support in reaction to the woke communities on the other side of the spectrum
 
Angela said:
It's all just excuses, as always. Their military was just as incompetent in World War II. They were saved by their weather, Hitler's stupidity in not factoring that in and not having proper supply lines bkz it was more important to use the trains to transport Jews to extermination camps than to feed the troops, and the willingness of Russian soldiers to blindly follow orders and just accept being used as cannon fodder. All they ever do is throw their poor soldiers at the enemy. Strategy, logistics etc. seem alien to them. I mean, I'm no graduate of one of the military academies, but who would think it's a good idea to line all your tanks up out on open roads with no cover, no plans for re-supplying them, no engineers to rebuild blown up bridges, etc. etc. What are they teaching in "their" military academies.

In less than two weeks they're going to lose as many young men as the U.S. lost in all the years fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq.

I don't know what explains it. It can't be cognitive inferiority, can it, of the people who go into the military? Is it because when you are under the rule of an autocrat you can't admit you made a mistake or the plan someone above you put into place is stupid?

It goes beyond the military too. There's no reason Russia should be such a backward country in terms of industry etc.
Click to expand...

The Russian military was not the only incompetent, so was the French military.
As I mentioned earlier in this thread, if the French hadn't retreated around Paris, Hitler would never have reached Dunkerque.
It is because the conquest of France went so smooth that Hitler felt strong enhough to conquer Russia.

Another anecdote is that Churchill requested the French navy to join the British before capitulation.
But the French refused and the French navy was about to fall in the hands of Hitler.
In the end Churchil had no other option than to bombard the French navy ..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Mers-el-Kébir
 
bicicleur 2 said:
first of all, the indignation is selective
if you want to be credible you have to condemn both extremes

second, it is not true that extreme right is a threat and extreme left is not
at least in Belgium, the extreme right gets most of its votes from people who are not exteme right, but dissatisfied by the political elite that rules the country
the Vlaams Belang is orienting itself more and more toward these voters instead of the extreme right,
Filip Dewinter is still oriented to the extreme right, but his influence within the party diminishes every year

if the political establishment would show more leadership and efficient government, there would be only a tiny extreme right of less than 1 %
the same goes in America where Trump gets a lot of support in reaction to the woke communities on the other side of the spectrum
Click to expand...

I do condemn both, see previous postings. Imo: les extrêmes se touchent.
Dugin is a prefect example of it in which fascism and communism have fuzed.
 
bicicleur 2 said:
first of all, the indignation is selective
if you want to be credible you have to condemn both extremes

second, it is not true that extreme right is a threat and extreme left is not
at least in Belgium, the extreme right gets most of its votes from people who are not exteme right, but dissatisfied by the political elite that rules the country
the Vlaams Belang is orienting itself more and more toward these voters instead of the extreme right,
Filip Dewinter is still oriented to the extreme right, but his influence within the party diminishes every year

if the political establishment would show more leadership and efficient government, there would be only a tiny extreme right of less than 1 %
the same goes in America where Trump gets a lot of support in reaction to the woke communities on the other side of the spectrum
Click to expand...

you could say that extreme right is stronger than extreme left because Merkel said 'wir schaffen dass'
she did so under pressure of the left and it was a complete diseaster

at least in Belgium the 'extreme right' isn't even opposed to accepting the fugitives from Ukraine
they just condemn the fake fugitives Merkel and Europe let in before and which can't be forced out of Europe any more
these were expensive principles taking over from efficient management
but there are also other issues, like handling the corona crisis or energy management
Belgium wants to close it's nuclear plants, just to please the green fundamentalists
they need 7 parties to join to gouvern without the NVA or Vlaams Belang, and each one has to score
I'm sorry, that is not governing a country, it's waisting money and doing whatever to stay in power
 
The Yavoriv military base is a military training facility in western Ukraine, in the city of Yavoriv, some 10 km from the international border with Poland. The facility houses an International Center for Peacekeeping and Security within the framework of the Ukraine–NATO Partnership for Peace program. The base covers an area of around 390 sq km (151 sq miles) and can accommodate up to 1,790 people.[1][2]

[h=2]2022 Russian attack[/h]During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Yavoriv military facility was hit by a Russian missile strike early on 13 March 2022. According to Ukrainian officials, 30 rockets were fired at the base, which killed nine and injured 57 others.[2] Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov described the strike as an "terrorist attack on peace and security near the EU-Nato border".[2]
Click to expand...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yavoriv_military_base


<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yavoriv_military_base#cite_note-bbc-13-03-2022-2">

 
Northener said:
I do condemn both, see previous postings. Imo: les extrêmes se touchent.
Dugin is a prefect example of it in which fascism and communism have fuzed.
Click to expand...

I don't know Dugin.
But why do you associate Riverman with extreme right?

I stopped reading his comments several pages ago.
I told him his discussions are pointless and a waist of time for me.
 
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