Southern Italian Ethnogenesis (My theory)

Thought I'd throw my results in as a non Italian Peloponnesian Greek

Er Monnezza said:

Results look different because I used averages instead of aggregated individual samples. Now mine should be more in line with the other regions.

Sample	Minoan	Yamnaya	Remedello	Anatolian_BA	C_Italian_N	Iberomaurusian	C_Italian_ChL	Bolshoy_Ostrov
Italian_Friuli_VG	33,9	34,4	31,1	0	0	0	0	0,6
Italian_Trentino	28,7	33,7	37,5	0	0	0	0	0,1
Italian_Aosta_Valley	20,9	33,7	44,6	0	0	0,6	0	0,2
Italian_Veneto	36,3	31,9	31,7	0	0	0	0	0,1
Swiss_Italian	28,7	31,4	39,9	0	0	0	0	0
Italian_Piedmont	33,1	30,1	35,7	0	0	0,9	0	0,2
Italian_Lombardy	35,4	28,2	36,3	0	0	0	0	0,1
Italian_Lazio	46	28,1	2,7	0	22,4	0,8	0	0
Italian_Emilia	37,6	27,7	26,6	0	6,7	0,2	1	0,2
Italian_Tuscany	40,3	27,4	22,4	0	8,8	0,1	1	0
Italian_Romagna	42,9	27,2	14,5	0	13,3	0,3	1,8	0
Italian_Umbria	47,4	26,8	12,3	0	11,1	0,8	1,4	0,2
Italian_Liguria	39,1	26,7	32,5	0	0	1,6	0	0,1
Italian_Marche	50,5	26,3	5,6	0	16,1	0,8	0,7	0
Italian_Apulia	64,1	24,6	0	9	0	1,6	0	0,7
Italian_Abruzzo	68,6	23,9	0	5	1,9	0,5	0	0,1
Italian_Molise	72,6	22,1	0	4,9	0,3	0,1	0	0
Italian_Basilicata	57,5	22,1	0	18,6	0	1,8	0	0
French_Corsica	41,4	21,1	22,6	0	13,9	1	0	0
Italian_Sicily	64,6	20	0	11,2	0,3	3,9	0	0
Italian_Campania	69	19,8	0	9,8	0,3	1,1	0	0
Ajeje_Brazorf_imputed	62,2	18,7	0	12,9	2,3	3,1	0,6	0,2
Ajeje_Brazorf	65,9	16,7	0	13,1	0	4,3	0	0
Italian_Calabria	51,1	14,4	0	31,7	0	2,8	0	0
Italian_Jew	47,7	9,4	0	35	0	7,9	0	0
Sardinian	33	1,1	53,5	0	8,8	3,6	0	0

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Interesting the high anatolian bronze age component in the calabrian i wonder from were are the calabrian samples been used for your average

Jovialis said:

@Pax, I didn't know you guys made the individual TSI samples too, could you please post them or link them so I may have them for my collection of samples?

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Yes, that would be great. It would be really interesting if you could run all 98 samples through your program so we could see the results sample by sample.

kingjohn said:

Interesting the high anatolian bronze age component in the calabrian i wonder from were are the calabrian samples been used for your average

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I certainly hope it's not the Calabrian sample which was so wonky in one of the academic analyses that Lazaridis had to come out and say it was probably a drifted sample.

Ofc, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Calabria turned out to be the most Aegean like province in Italy, and thus the most like the Greeks of Magna Graecia.

Pax Augusta said:

The results change somewhat if averages are used in the model instead of aggregated individuals.

TSI average based on about 98 TSI individuals (model in source with aggregated individuals by Jovialis). 48 out of 98 individuals get Anatolian_BA but they all get higher Central Italy Neolitich and lower Minoan. Cycles 4, Add Col Dist 0.25

TSI average based on about 98 TSI individuals (model in source with averages posted by Er Monnezza). Only 7 out of 98 individuals get Anatolian_BA. Cycles 4, Add Col Dist 0.25

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Same averages with Cycles 0,25, Add Col Dist 0. Model in source with aggregated individuals by Jovialis. 20 out of 98 individuals get a bit of Anatolian_BA, but ony two have higher than 10% and another 6 exceed 3%.




Same averages with Cycles 0,25, Add Col Dist 0. Model in source with averages posted by Er Monnezza. 6 out of 98 individuals get Anatolian_BA but ony one has higher than 10%.




@ Jovialis. You have a few messages.

Piedmont set sample. 1 outliers has been removed. Cycles 0,25, Add Col Dist 0. Model in source with aggregated individuals by Jovialis. 1 out of 11 individuals gets Anatolian_BA.





Piedmont set sample. 1 outliers has been removed. Cycles 0,25, Add Col Dist 0. Model in source with averages posted by Er Monnezza.






the outlier that has been removed from the averages

Greeks and southern Italians along with aDNA.

This was from Raveane et al. 2019, it was an alternative model they had made in the supplement. I used the same color scheme in my models from this study for consistency. It looks very close to the results I have found using Dodecad K12b for Southern Italians. Interestingly, the Reich Lab also found similar results in Sicily in the Bronze Age, in an alternative model found in the supplement.

Jovialis said:

This was from Raveane et al. 2019, it was an alternative model they had made in the supplement. I used the same color scheme in my models from this study for consistency. It looks very close to the results I have found using Dodecad K12b for Southern Italians. Interestingly, the Reich Lab also found similar results in Sicily in the Bronze Age, in an alternative model found in the supplement.

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Did they discuss why they chose to highlight the other model, or why they decided to also look at it this way? I don't remember off hand, and can't look it up right now.

I agree with 90% of everything said. Most southern Italian ancestry is quite similar to minoans, however, as another member said; in addition to the greater Caucasian component than in western anatolia, there is also a greater levantine component, perhaps a Phoenician influence? I do not know for sure. I don't understand the reason for 'controversy'. Throughout southern Europe there is some mix of north africa or middle East. It is not unique to southern Italy. There are also in Iberia and other southeastern European countries.

Angela said:

Stonehenge is indeed interesting, and finding out that it was EEF like people who made it did come as a bit of a shock to a lot of people.

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Primarily Y-DNA I2a, which goes back to WHG (and the Epigravettian Refugium), but with a significant EEF admixture. My interest is primarily historical - Y-DNA can help to track migrations, but is a single thread that gets thinner and thinner the further back it goes. I'm in the Isles Scot/Ire clade (according to my Big Y-700 results):

"Our next sub-sector is the Isles Sc/Ire that stems from Isles Limbo I-FGC20063 branch through I-FT2392 to Isles Sc/Ire I-S7753*. One could say it was by far the most successful of the Isles sector branches thus far. This sub-sector can be distinguished for most tested from other Isles sub-sectors by the STR marker DSY464 having 11-11-14-15. Of course we see variations especially if affected by a recLOH event. The I-S7753 branch node is also known as I-Y4171 and I-FGC20048 and has according to FTDNA 15 SNPs at the node. Still room for discovering new branches and splitting this node. It has two known branches - I-Y23716* and I-Y4142*" -- Wayne Rodney Roberts (I-M223 Project Administrator)

Very few "racially-attributable" traits are carried by the Y-Chromosome. Apparently, however:

"A pedigree of hairy ear rims published in Italy in 1907 indicated holandric inheritance. The recent collection of over 20 pedigrees in India appears to show conclusively that the gene for hairy ear rims is in the Y chromosome. This is further evidence of relationship between the Mediterranean race in Europe and the population of India." -- https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.132.3420.145.a

Despite my Y-DNA ancestors likely having been in northeast Ireland since before the formation of surnames (as evidenced by my very "Irish" surname), according to my Family Finder results: I'm 100% Europe; 47% England, Wales, and Scotland; 21% Scandinavia; 20% Central Europe; and, last and least, 13% Irish. I partially attribute my relatively minuscule amount of Irishness either to males in my direct paternal line having largely avoided marrying girls of "Irish" descent (as evidenced by Irish maiden names) or that there just weren't many available in the areas where they settled (Pennsylvania and Nebraska), the exception being a great-great-great grandmother (nee Goff). If the Irish tribe had a reservation, I'd be in danger of being voted off of it. And I've likely inherited as many or more Irish genes from my mother's as from my father's side, with a Duhig (Duffy) great-great-grandfather from Ireland. The 21% Scandinavian may come from my paternal great-grandfather having married a girl (nee Nelson) from Denmark.

Angela said:

Did they discuss why they chose to highlight the other model, or why they decided to also look at it this way? I don't remember off hand, and can't look it up right now.

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I don't recall, but it is interesting that Raveane et al. 2022 now entertains a Minoan model instead.

Jovialis said:

I don't recall, but it is interesting that Raveane et al. 2022 now entertains a Minoan model instead.

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They probably lurked some of your posts.
Jokes aside, wonder if this new model could shed new light on the so called pelasgian people.
Southern Italy in the late bronze must have been quite an interesting place, with aegean and italic invaders swarming around.

Francesco said:

They probably lurked some of your posts.
Jokes aside, wonder if this new model could shed new light on the so called pelasgian people.
Southern Italy in the late bronze must have been quite an interesting place, with aegean and italic invaders swarming around.

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This model is basically a more expanded upon version. Interestingly, southern Italians remain the same in spite of all the new additions. Which leads me to believe it is a good model.

Something interesting I noticed is that Scythians seems to fill the gap between Helladic_MBA and Yamnaya; linking the cline from Yamnaya to Minoan. I wonder if there could be any relation.

Jovialis said:

Something interesting I noticed is that Scythians seems to fill the gap between Helladic_MBA and Yamnaya; linking the cline from Yamnaya to Minoan. I wonder if there could be any relation.

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Ostrogoths and visigoths arrived in scythian and sarmatian lands from 150BC and stayed until they went via the balkans into Italy , france and Spain .......................the mixing of these goths with scythians in the north part of the black sea for over 400 years could have something to do with it

I'm sorry if the question I'm about to ask won't make much sense from a technical point of view, but I wonder if it could be a good fit to model southern Italy as a three way mix of protovillanovian + Minoan + Empuries (used as proxy for Iron age Greek), which, historically, should have been the three populations who contributed the most to the ethnogenesis of that region.