Do what you do and what you want. I will just not follow the same path. The real importance is to know why we are, individualy doing it for.

For me, curiosity.

halfalp, you might well be right, although the specific hypothesis that living Z2103 originated in the Steppe is untestable through ancient DNA, and is thus what Popper defined as pseudoscience - a matter of instinct, much like the tenets of psychoanalysis, a belief in God or interpretations of literature. The only objective methods of testing this are currently using variance analysis on modern DNA, and they yield a slightly different alternative 'most likely' answer. But all might change as the data accumulates.

There are four basal branches of living Z2103 - three of these branches are estimated to be wholly of a South of the Caucasus coalescence (PF331, Y13369 and Y4364) and the fourth is estimated to have a Caucasus branch (CTS8966) and a Steppe/Eastern European branch (Z2109). The only steppic branch appears to be a sub-branch of a basal branch, and this sub-branch Z2109 shows little or no sign of migrating back South of the Caucasus at any subsequent point.

The Steppe looks from the data to be at best a tertiary development of Z2103, with any migrational separation across the Caucasus occurring at an early stage (whichever way it occurred), long before the late Bronze Age steppic migrations into Southern Asia. Accordingly, I would suggest these late Bronze Age steppic migrations were of people that were predominantly R1a-Z93 (rather than R1b-Z2103), albeit with probably some Yamnayan-descendant admixture.
 
I have hard time to imagine that the 400-200 BC Scythians Z2103 samples that we have are not somehow related with any modern branches of Z2103.

According to Maciamo then itself according to FTDNA:


- L584 (including L943) : found mostly in the South Caucasus, Turkey, Iraq and Iran, but also in Poland, Germany and Austria.

- L277.1 : found in Russia, Central Asia, Bulgaria, India and the Middle East (Iraq, Lebanon).

- CTS7822 (including CTS9219) : found in Russia (including Chuvashia), Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, the Balkans, Armenia, Italy, Spain, Britain and Ireland.

- CTS7763 : found in Turkey, Bulgaria and Italy.

- Z2109 : found in Germany and Scotland.

All South Caucasus Z2103 branches are also found in Europe. Bashkirs and Udmurts have probably more Z2103 % than ethnic Armenians but i cannot found anything on this and the potential branches they are in.
 
I have hard time to imagine that the 400-200 BC Scythians Z2103 samples that we have are not somehow related with any modern branches of Z2103.
Do we have further information on their SNPs? If we do, we can surely find out; if we do not, we will not know one way or the other. Personally, I have no difficulty imagining that the lineage of an ancient person might have died out; it happened all the time.

According to Maciamo then itself according to FTDNA:

- L584 (including L943) : found mostly in the South Caucasus, Turkey, Iraq and Iran, but also in Poland, Germany and Austria.

- L277.1 : found in Russia, Central Asia, Bulgaria, India and the Middle East (Iraq, Lebanon).

- CTS7822 (including CTS9219) : found in Russia (including Chuvashia), Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, the Balkans, Armenia, Italy, Spain, Britain and Ireland.

- CTS7763 : found in Turkey, Bulgaria and Italy.

- Z2109 : found in Germany and Scotland.

All South Caucasus Z2103 branches are also found in Europe. Bashkirs and Udmurts have probably more Z2103 % than ethnic Armenians but i cannot found anything on this and the potential branches they are in.

Yes, as the current data stands, the South/Caucasus Z2103 samples are more similar to European samples (both in terms of SNPs and STRs) than they are to each other, suggesting that the European samples descended more recently from South/Caucasus people than when the South/Caucasus samples branched away from each other. If you analyse all of the ftDNA samples in detail and according to their precise SNPs, I think you will find the same. (L584, L277 and CTS7763 are each subclades of these branches.)

The limited information that I have on Bashkir samples places them on the European basal branch, which my estimates suggest most likely underwent its early development on the Central Steppe (the European branch being the Z2019 sub-subclade of Z2103, from which most European Z2103 branches, including CTS7822, descend).
 
Do we have further information on their SNPs? If we do, we can surely find out; if we do not, we will not know one way or the other. Personally, I have no difficulty imagining that the lineage of an ancient person might have died out; it happened all the time.



Yes, as the current data stands, the South/Caucasus Z2103 samples are more similar to European samples (both in terms of SNPs and STRs) than they are to each other, suggesting that the European samples descended more recently from South/Caucasus people than when the South/Caucasus samples branched away from each other. If you analyse all of the ftDNA samples in detail and according to their precise SNPs, I think you will find the same. (L584, L277 and CTS7763 are each subclades of these branches.)

The limited information that I have on Bashkir samples places them on the European basal branch, which my estimates suggest most likely underwent its early development on the Central Steppe (the European branch being the Z2019 sub-subclade of Z2103, from which most European Z2103 branches, including CTS7822, descend).

But let me just summarize your hypothesis here:

You believe the R1b-Z2103* from prehistoric steppe is a dead lineage, somehow related with the " Z2103 european basal branche " that separated from " multiple South Caucasus Z2103 basal branches " before Yamnaya Culture?

If so, what is your hypothesis of how did it came into Steppe and when?

Let's have an alternative hypothesis. In the Caucasus paper there is 2 interesting North Caucasus samples. PG2001 and PG2004 both are 4300-4000 BC old and are probably R1b-V1636*.

I'm pretty sure R1b-V1636 is nowadays only found in South Caucasus, and STR analysis would show just as R1b-Z2103 that it was probably born in modern Armenia or somwhere South of Caucasus.

Then we have 3500-3000 BC samples all over Eastern Europe that shows Z2103*.

Now let's cut the apple in two. What if, V1636 and Z2103 are originating in North Caucasus but somehow had ties with South Caucasus ( Areni ) and exchanged genes already 4000BC. Z2103 and V1636 does appear in South Caucasus wich indirectly confirms those exchanges, but it only appears post-3000 BC mainly Late Bronze Age.

If we go back the Phylogenetic Tree of R1b, V1636 is the brother of P297 and Z2103 is the grand-son of M269. It's hard to imagine there was a mutual origin both South of the Caucasus and in broad Eastern Europe since at least Paleolithic. Z2013 from Yamnaya have probably nothing to do with modern south caucasus branches and probably dont come from South Caucasus. However, it's possible that around 4000 BC some North Caucasus Z2103 and V1636 expanded South of the Caucasus before the founder effect creating the Steppe Z2103 ( probably with the cultural impulse of Maykop expansion ) came to birth.
 
But let me just summarize your hypothesis here:
You believe the R1b-Z2103* from prehistoric steppe is a dead lineage, somehow related with the " Z2103 european basal branche " that separated from " multiple South Caucasus Z2103 basal branches " before Yamnaya Culture?
If so, what is your hypothesis of how did it came into Steppe and when?

I would guess that the surviving Z2103* lineage might well have spent part (or perhaps even much) of its lifespan in the Steppe, but there is no data to confirm this for sure, and I have no hypothesis concerning how or when it did so.

My estimate for the steppic Z2109 branch calculated as 4,200 BC (a little earlier than yfull's estimate), although I am not confident of the precision of this estimate (just that its separation from Southern branches appears to precede Yamnaya).

My guess is that it connects in some way to the steppic-Anatolian hybrid people (Suvorovo) that turned up in 5th millennium BC Bulgaria.

Let's have an alternative hypothesis. In the Caucasus paper there is 2 interesting North Caucasus samples. PG2001 and PG2004 both are 4300-4000 BC old and are probably R1b-V1636*.
I'm pretty sure R1b-V1636 is nowadays only found in South Caucasus, and STR analysis would show just as R1b-Z2103 that it was probably born in modern Armenia or somwhere South of Caucasus.
Then we have 3500-3000 BC samples all over Eastern Europe that shows Z2103*.

There are two assumptions here of which I would appreciate clarification - (i) how do we arrive at 'probably R1b-V1636'?, and (ii) what exactly is meant by Z2103*? (A definition of Z2103* from several years ago might be different to Z2103* now, due to recent confirmation of phylogeny).

Now let's cut the apple in two. What if, V1636 and Z2103 are originating in North Caucasus but somehow had ties with South Caucasus ( Areni ) and exchanged genes already 4000BC. Z2103 and V1636 does appear in South Caucasus wich indirectly confirms those exchanges, but it only appears post-3000 BC mainly Late Bronze Age.
If we go back the Phylogenetic Tree of R1b, V1636 is the brother of P297 and Z2103 is the grand-son of M269. It's hard to imagine there was a mutual origin both South of the Caucasus and in broad Eastern Europe since at least Paleolithic. Z2013 from Yamnaya have probably nothing to do with modern south caucasus branches and probably dont come from South Caucasus. <strong>However, it's possible that around 4000 BC some North Caucasus Z2103 and V1636 expanded South of the Caucasus before the founder effect creating the Steppe Z2103 ( probably with the cultural impulse of Maykop expansion ) came to birth.

Yes, indeed very possible. Still not quite the most likely in my view. I see early Z2103 as possibly moving around a focal point in the Western Caucasus, perhaps even seasonally; I also see many successful ancient lineages as cross-cultural, which can catalyse development, although this is only speculation in this case. I am not confident enough to be any more definite in this respect.

My main point of curiosity was to try to establish whether South of Caucasus Z2103 was substantially connected to later Bronze Age/Aryan migrations, and I have come to the tentative conclusion that probably wasn't and that it was most likely R1-Z93 that brought in the bulk of Steppe DNA at that point.
 
There are two assumptions here of which I would appreciate clarification - (i) how do we arrive at 'probably R1b-V1636'?, and (ii) what exactly is meant by Z2103*? (A definition of Z2103* from several years ago might be different to Z2103* now, due to recent confirmation of phylogeny).

1) Smal from Anthrogenica made calls for this paper several times ago here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...0U-WrhyTBWlwCVdK6AMQFCfIaw/edit#gid=202340943. Im not sure if the calls are from him or the authors, but i'm pretty sure they are not wrong.

Also about R1b-Z2103*, pretty sure all Z2103 from Yamnaya and prehistoric Steppe are labeled Z2103*

Yes, indeed very possible. Still not quite the most likely in my view. I see early Z2103 as possibly moving around a focal point in the Western Caucasus, perhaps even seasonally; I also see many successful ancient lineages as cross-cultural, which can catalyse development, although this is only speculation in this case. I am not confident enough to be any more definite in this respect.

My main point of curiosity was to try to establish whether South of Caucasus Z2103 was substantially connected to later Bronze Age/Aryan migrations, and I have come to the tentative conclusion that probably wasn't and that it was most likely R1-Z93 that brought in the bulk of Steppe DNA at that point.

Now it's the point where i want to come to. Do we speak about R1b-L23 and Z2103 clearly been born from M269 in South Caucasus, or are we talking as i said about cross-cultural developpement? I have the conviction, wich might changes with new datas, that the Z2103 from the Steppe mainly Yamnaya are local, wich doesn't mean the Z2103 from Hajji Firuz for exemple are directly descending from Yamnaya guys. If Z2103 have a TMRCA older than 4000 BC, then it can clearly have lived both side of the Caucasus before Yamnaya expansions.
 
1) Smal from Anthrogenica made calls for this paper several times ago here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...0U-WrhyTBWlwCVdK6AMQFCfIaw/edit#gid=202340943. Im not sure if the calls are from him or the authors, but i'm pretty sure they are not wrong.
Thanks. Not sure that V1636 is highly relevant, though, as yfull estimates that it split from Z2103's ancestor more than 10,000 years beforehand.

Also about R1b-Z2103*, pretty sure all Z2103 from Yamnaya and prehistoric Steppe are labeled Z2103*
I can only find that it is either Z2103 unspecified or I2a2a1b1, apart from one dead end L23 lineage negative for both Z2103 and L51.

Now it's the point where i want to come to. Do we speak about R1b-L23 and Z2103 clearly been born from M269 in South Caucasus, or are we talking as i said about cross-cultural developpement? I have the conviction, wich might changes with new datas, that the Z2103 from the Steppe mainly Yamnaya are local, wich doesn't mean the Z2103 from Hajji Firuz for exemple are directly descending from Yamnaya guys. If Z2103 have a TMRCA older than 4000 BC, then it can clearly have lived both side of the Caucasus before Yamnaya expansions.
I wouldn't say it is clear where these haplogroups were formed, merely that they were most likely in the general vicinity of the Western Caucasus as they were forming. Perhaps the two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, but that the successful people bearing this yDNA moved between two environments, sheltering in and trading with farmers in the South during the winters and venturing North in the summers. When two cultures come together, this can confer the advantages of adaptability and an increased skillset.

I have mentioned this elsewhere, but I see curious associations between two diverse haplogroups R-L23 and G-PF3345, which each appear to have thrived (on both sides of the Pontic) while relatives around them were dying out. Perhaps further indications of collaboration?
 
I wouldn't say it is clear where these haplogroups were formed, merely that they were most likely in the general vicinity of the Western Caucasus as they were forming. Perhaps the two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, but that the successful people bearing this yDNA moved between two environments, sheltering in and trading with farmers in the South during the winters and venturing North in the summers. When two cultures come together, this can confer the advantages of adaptability and an increased skillset.

I have mentioned this elsewhere, but I see curious associations between two diverse haplogroups R-L23 and G-PF3345, which each appear to have thrived (on both sides of the Pontic) while relatives around them were dying out. Perhaps further indications of collaboration?

Well its clear already 5000BC that Pontic Steppe and South Caucasus are exchanging females via the mtdna results we have cf. ( H2a1 in Khvalynsk and H2a1a in Sredny Stog and maybe y-dna such as J1* in Karelia. I dont think any R1b and G population ( together ) ever existed anywhere. I think J2b might be a better southern lineage to be related and found alongside R1b. It's clear that the R1b from Steppe neighbored a lot of CHG people, looking at their ancestry, even if all CHG from Steppe came via women, they had those women because of good relationship with the southern people.

And i wouldn't take too much reltation from ancient dna distribution with modern one. I have already made the research and the L-L595 haplogroup from Maykop is nowadays mainly an European lineage especially extreme west europe as Ireland and British Islands but also Estonia. Wich tells us this lineage since Maykop expanded a lot, probably with IE speakers somehow.

I think there was infiltration in Steppe from the south both East and West of the Caucasus mountains. Even though the question is, Where did R1b-Z2103 originated?

Then there is that argument that Z2103 branches of Armenia separated before the Steppic and Eastern European ones. That's probably true, but it doesn't tell us where it did separated, Armenia is just the modern focal point, not the point of origin.
 
Thanks. Not sure that V1636 is highly relevant, though, as yfull estimates that it split from Z2103's ancestor more than 10,000 years beforehand.

Its only relevant in the way that, if we would only have modern V1636 samples, our primary deduction would be it came from Anatolia, while it is now found in Khvalynsk Culture and North Caucasus ante-4000 BC while it is found in prehistoric South Caucasus in Late Kura-Araxes only 2600-2400 BC. But probably STR variance would put V1636 origin in Anatolia, while it's probably not. I like to think lineages dont really spread with inconsistant patterns, and R1b in Europe since Paleolithic seem a coherent pattern from now. Then there is people who believe that there was some R1b in Europe, while there was some V88 and M269 in Northern Mesopotamia at the same time... i dont believe such patterns, especially when they are incoherent in relation with the phylogenetic tree and the prehistoric datas.
 
Its only relevant in the way that, if we would only have modern V1636 samples, our primary deduction would be it came from Anatolia, while it is now found in Khvalynsk Culture and North Caucasus ante-4000 BC while it is found in prehistoric South Caucasus in Late Kura-Araxes only 2600-2400 BC. But probably STR variance would put V1636 origin in Anatolia, while it's probably not. I like to think lineages dont really spread with inconsistant patterns, and R1b in Europe since Paleolithic seem a coherent pattern from now. Then there is people who believe that there was some R1b in Europe, while there was some V88 and M269 in Northern Mesopotamia at the same time... i dont believe such patterns, especially when they are incoherent in relation with the phylogenetic tree and the prehistoric datas.
Yes, but the quantity of V1636 data is too small from which to draw reliable conclusions. If something is not found, this does not mean it did not exist. And in human behaviour/social sciences, it is unrealistic to expect wholly coherent patterns.
 
Well its clear already 5000BC that Pontic Steppe and South Caucasus are exchanging females via the mtdna results we have cf. ( H2a1 in Khvalynsk and H2a1a in Sredny Stog and maybe y-dna such as J1* in Karelia.
Yes, although this isn't really exchange, but signs of one-way traffic. If there was admixture between North and South of Caucasus populations, the two populations must have met, so I don't see why there would not also have been some gene flows in the opposite direction.

I dont think any R1b and G population ( together ) ever existed anywhere.
I think it likely, with G-PF3345 specifically - in the Eastern Balkans/Carpathians (and spilling over into Central/Western Europe) with L51, and in the Western Caucasus with Z2103. It might help explain why L23 and PF3345 are the only subclades of each haplogroup that thrived, and PF3345 provided what I expect living L23 acquired the majority of its Anatolian component from.

And i wouldn't take too much reltation from ancient dna distribution with modern one. I have already made the research and the L-L595 haplogroup from Maykop is nowadays mainly an European lineage especially extreme west europe as Ireland and British Islands but also Estonia. Wich tells us this lineage since Maykop expanded a lot, probably with IE speakers somehow.
Exactly, it seems to mirror R1b-L23. Probably not a coincidence, in my opinion.

I think there was infiltration in Steppe from the south both East and West of the Caucasus mountains. Even though the question is, Where did R1b-Z2103 originated?

Then there is that argument that Z2103 branches of Armenia separated before the Steppic and Eastern European ones. That's probably true, but it doesn't tell us where it did separated, Armenia is just the modern focal point, not the point of origin.

I think we are close enough to the answer - that its formative period came to a conclusion most likely somewhere near to the Caucasus. This fits with yDNA, mtDNA and aDNA evidence.

To expect much more than this is unrealistic. The formation of Z2103 as we know it represents several hundred years of lineage through a series of single individuals who underwent 10 different SNP mutations. It is impossible for us to find the remnants of each of these individuals, and track exactly where they were all conceived and where they travelled over their lifetimes.
 
To expect much more than this is unrealistic. The formation of Z2103 as we know it represents several hundred years of lineage through a series of single individuals who underwent 10 different SNP mutations. It is impossible for us to find the remnants of each of these individuals, and track exactly where they were all conceived and where they travelled over their lifetimes.

I think my point is that i dont believe M269 was in Balkans or Steppe, came to Anatolia or South of the Caucasus and back migrate to Steppe again. If L23 and Z2103 are born in Armenia, then L51 probably also, but a thing to keep in mind, if Z2103 was 4000BC in Armenia, its genetic signature would be 50/50 Anatolian_Chl and Iran_Neolithic. Both signature dont exist in the Z2103 Steppe samples, only CHG that some guys try to link with Iran_Neo but the thing is many calculators shows how this ancestry is closer to Kotias than Ganj Dareh or Hotu for exemple. P297 is virtually the father of M269 while M73 is the virtual brother of it. So P297 in Baltic, M73 East of the Urals, it make sense for M269 to be from the Steppe, L23 and Z2103 probably had TMRCA at some point very close to Caucasus, while L51 was somewhere else.
 
I think my point is that i dont believe M269 was in Balkans or Steppe, came to Anatolia or South of the Caucasus and back migrate to Steppe again.

What grounds do you have for not believing that? yfull estimates M269's formation period to be 6,900 years long. Even before it started branching, there were about 230 generations of men bearing an M269-equivalent SNP. Why would they all have stayed in exactly the same spot for the whole of their lifespans? M269 would have been formative over a zone, almost certainly a wide one.
Some were migrating backwards and forwards all the time. Suvorovo seem to have moved from the Central Steppe to the Balkans and back, and R1a-Z283 appears to have migrated from the Steppe to Germany and back again. It is not unheard of.

if Z2103 was 4000BC in Armenia, its genetic signature would be 50/50 Anatolian_Chl and Iran_Neolithic. Both signature dont exist in the Z2103 Steppe samples
Armenia was probably inhabited by various populations with different signatures; I can't see that anyone present there would automatically have been 50:50 Anatolian:CHG.
But in any case, within the next 1,000 years by the time we get to the Z2103 Steppe samples, the original Armenian autosomal mix would have been diluted by 30 or more admixtures with females, potentially creating various signatures, each unrecognisable from their start point. That is why we have early Z2103 samples with a variety of autosomal mixes - some heavily EHG, some heavily CHG, one heavily Anatolian, one heavily WHG.
P297 is virtually the father of M269 while M73 is the virtual brother of it. So P297 in Baltic, M73 East of the Urals, it make sense for M269 to be from the Steppe, L23 and Z2103 probably had TMRCA at some point very close to Caucasus, while L51 was somewhere else.
Ancient P297 and M73 in the Baltic are red herrings - the lineages of all of these samples are extinct, suggesting that the Baltic was not the place most conducive to the emergence of successful P297 lineages.
I would suggest the main zone within which Z2103 formed was most likely the Eastern Pontic between Laz and Azov. However, in my view, it would not be out of the question for Z2103 to have also been within the group that moved in and destroyed the Chalcolithic settlements in the Balkans and Carpathians before migrating back to the East again.
 
What grounds do you have for not believing that? yfull estimates M269's formation period to be 6,900 years long. Even before it started branching, there were about 230 generations of men bearing an M269-equivalent SNP. Why would they all have stayed in exactly the same spot for the whole of their lifespans? M269 would have been formative over a zone, almost certainly a wide one.
Some were migrating backwards and forwards all the time. Suvorovo seem to have moved from the Central Steppe to the Balkans and back, and R1a-Z283 appears to have migrated from the Steppe to Germany and back again. It is not unheard of.


Armenia was probably inhabited by various populations with different signatures; I can't see that anyone present there would automatically have been 50:50 Anatolian:CHG.
But in any case, within the next 1,000 years by the time we get to the Z2103 Steppe samples, the original Armenian autosomal mix would have been diluted by 30 or more admixtures with females, potentially creating various signatures, each unrecognisable from their start point. That is why we have early Z2103 samples with a variety of autosomal mixes - some heavily EHG, some heavily CHG, one heavily Anatolian, one heavily WHG.

Ancient P297 and M73 in the Baltic are red herrings - the lineages of all of these samples are extinct, suggesting that the Baltic was not the place most conducive to the emergence of successful P297 lineages.
I would suggest the main zone within which Z2103 formed was most likely the Eastern Pontic between Laz and Azov. However, in my view, it would not be out of the question for Z2103 to have also been within the group that moved in and destroyed the Chalcolithic settlements in the Balkans and Carpathians before migrating back to the East again.

You keep comparing modern branches and considering prehistoric ones as " extinct ". People did the same with Villabruna or Iron_Gates / Baltic HG's.

Let me just resume on what your hypothesis is holding taking ancient dna in account. Because there is no R1b ante-3000 BC in Anatolia, South Caucasus or broad Middle-East. Apparently according to almost everyone on Eupedia, R1b-V88, R1b-M269, R1b-L23, R1b-Z2103, R1b-L51 were all Anatolian-broad Middle-East lineages but apparently we cannot found any of them. Apparently the Europeans samples are Dead Lineages so Irrelevant and apparently the lineages that survived cannot be found because they were ultra minor lineages in Anatolia-Broad Middle-East until they reach Europe and then expanded like crazy.

The diversity of prehistoric Armenia probably was not diverse as you would want it to be. Yamnaya samples have Z2103 and mostly souther mtdna, were the 60% EHG came from? Once again its shadow ultra minor lineage that would have expanded like crazy. I dont buy it.

About your point about Anatolian and WHG heavy Z2103, it's very symptomatic of transitional peoples. Meaning the Anatolian ancestry of Northern Caucasus samples are totally irrelevant for the history of Z2103 and more relevant in the history of Maykop People lacking Z2103. Most of none North Caucasus Z2103 are contemporary with it and do not show Anatolian ancestry, meaning this ancestry never expanded over the Manych River. As the same with the extra WHG ancestry West. M73 was not found in the Baltic as far as i remember but in Botai, wich totally match the geography of modern distribution east of the Urals. We dont have much data of modern P297 but its probably born not far of the Baltic and if not Baltic probably east of it.

If there is enough room to say that everything about the ancient dna we have is irrelevant about prehistoric history ( what? ), there is not enough room to talk about all this. We can just write the history with modern dna. But then why would ancient dna exist and paper about it exist if modern dna alone was relevant? Thats a good paradoxe that we should do probabilities of ancient dna with modern dna.
 
The difference is I am assuming lineages are dead when they do not appear amongst tens of thousands of modern samples; you are assuming that lineages did not exist when they do not appear amongst only tens of ancient samples.
Ancient DNA is not irrelevant though - it can be very informative when it is potentially a living lineage and can be traced into modern populations. Yamnayan Z2103 is a good example of this, but I don't think ancient DNA tells us much about the formation of basal M269 clades, as the samples aren't really there at early enough dates. Consequently, we can't really say what the autosomal mixes were in their earliest populations, or what might have been admixed in by just one or two generations of females from other populations.
Ancient DNA tells us more about the formation of R1a-M417, as a couple of samples fall close to formation dates, have consistent autosomal readings and can be traced through well into living populations.
 
The difference is I am assuming lineages are dead when they do not appear amongst tens of thousands of modern samples; you are assuming that lineages did not exist when they do not appear amongst only tens of ancient samples.
Ancient DNA is not irrelevant though - it can be very informative when it is potentially a living lineage and can be traced into modern populations. Yamnayan Z2103 is a good example of this, but I don't think ancient DNA tells us much about the formation of basal M269 clades, as the samples aren't really there at early enough dates. Consequently, we can't really say what the autosomal mixes were in their earliest populations, or what might have been admixed in by just one or two generations of females from other populations.
Ancient DNA tells us more about the formation of R1a-M417, as a couple of samples fall close to formation dates, have consistent autosomal readings and can be traced through well into living populations.

Just as an exemple, do we know if the Cogotas R1b-DF27 falls into modern DF27 branches or is it a dead lineage branch? If it's a dead one, what does it have different than Z2103 samples from the Steppe?

Yes you maybe right about R1a-M417, but before we had ancient dna of them, people used to force the origin of it in Kurdistan with the same technology you are making Z2103 coming from Armenia, so why are they wrong because of Ancient DNA and you dont because of Modern DNA? Only because they are close to formation date?
 
Just as an exemple, do we know if the Cogotas R1b-DF27 falls into modern DF27 branches or is it a dead lineage branch? If it's a dead one, what does it have different than Z2103 samples from the Steppe?
Yes you maybe right about R1a-M417, but before we had ancient dna of them, people used to force the origin of it in Kurdistan with the same technology you are making Z2103 coming from Armenia, so why are they wrong because of Ancient DNA and you dont because of Modern DNA? Only because they are close to formation date?
I'll look at Cogotas if I can find data on it. If it's like other BA Iberian I've seen, it will be a mix of Northern Bell Beaker, El Portalon and Iberian Neolithic.
Not sure why Kurdistan for M417 - perhaps they had little data or applied unsophisticated methodology or were looking at R1a as a whole. My calculations for MRCA gave SE Poland/NW Ukraine, but still based on fairly little data. Still, it ties up roughly with ancient DNA, which gives an early NE Ukraine sample with a semi-Balkan like autosomal profile.
 
Question: percentage of R1b-Z2103 in Western Iran, Turkmenistan, in Wikipedia map it shows 30-60% in W.Iran is it true?
 
Question: percentage of R1b-Z2103 in Western Iran, Turkmenistan, in Wikipedia map it shows 30-60% in W.Iran is it true?
Where is this map? I doubt it. Perhaps at the lower end of this range in the districts bordering Armenia, but I don't think so as a whole.
 
Just as an exemple, do we know if the Cogotas R1b-DF27 falls into modern DF27 branches or is it a dead lineage branch? If it's a dead one, what does it have different than Z2103 samples from the Steppe?
Cogotas looks like a dead lineage, although its nearest modern relatives are also Iberian (estimated split point - late 3rd millennium BC, per yfull). It has an autosomal profile that looks similar to other Bronze Age Iberia (a mix of Northern Bell Beaker, El Portalon and Iberian Neolithic). Is this a trick question?
 

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