Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

Northener said:

First of all the Russian have a simplistic economy the BBP is that of the much much smaller Benelux. 60% depend on rude products like oil and gas. 84% of the gas goes to Europe.

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I would be extremely skeptical about any and all GNP numbers, both we regard to the GNP of the US (far overstates the real size & dynamism of the economy) and with regard to Russia (if nothing else, they get a lot more bang for their military-spending buck than other countries)

Northener said:

Ok that means a certain dependence on Russia for oil and gas, especially in countries like Germany. But for the short term the winter is over and so is the demand for oil and gas. We will have to look for alternatives more quickly. The USA has already increased LNG production, Qatar also seems to be willing to supply extra.

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A serious energy for Europe is a nuclear one. Europeans (and Americans) need to get over their oh-so-virtuous green energy clap trap and take real steps to promote energy independence, to the extent possible. Europe will never be energy self-sufficient, but if they had nuclear capacity, they would be in much better shape today.

But the fundamental fact, after the crisis has passed, is that the best source of oil & gas for Germany is Russia.

As the East Mediterranean comes on line, the oil fields near Cyprus, this might prove a very good source for the Mediterranean countries. However, all of this is to assume that Russia won't compete against the USA in the East Mediterranean. Certainly the Russians have forged a nice relationship with Syria.

Northener said:

The downside is that the income of the Russians may soon disappear. When the income from oil and gas largely disappears, they have relatively little, the question is whether the Chinese will take over 100%.But they've been smart, they have a huge war chest.

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Looks like India will also be buying plenty of Russian gas and potash. Trade conducted in rupee's. See link I just posted above.

Northener said:

And about a choice between the Russians and the Americans. I even consider it an insult to think that the Europeans would choose the Russians. We share with the Americans a preference for liberal democracy and not for tyranny.

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I do not mean this as an insult. My loyalty is to true Europeans and true Americans. However, when the dust settles, it will be clear to all that this entire debacle was cynically motivated by the US foreign policy elite to (1) push Russia out of Europe and (2) keep Germany down. The same grand objectives that US has had since 1945, but now much more clumsily and ineptly executed than ever before.

Right now, through sheer emotion, and the "soft power" of the Western media apparatus, which paints Russia as the perpetual bogeyman, the US has succeeded in separating Europe from Russia. But this separation will not last for long. The cynical policy of the US in the Ukraine will backfire.

Northener said:

There are exceptions, however, the authoritarian populism in Europe unanimously opts for Putin's applause machine. That is also the case in the US. That becomes the real contradiction in the west, the authoritarian populists in Europe and the US form Putin's fifth column!

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Wonderful. Anybody who questions the wisdom of our leaders' actions is a traitor and fifth columnist. And yet I'm the authoritarian!! Maybe you should go pose for a photo with your idol Trudeau.

bigsnake49 said:

I thought it was a brilliant strategy to lure the Russians to the cities where gorilla warfare is much more effective. Since Ukraine has no tank force to speak off they let the Russians have the farmland. Ask the Americans how bad it got with IEDs and rocket propelled grenades in Baghdad or Kandahar.

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Yes I agree.

But IMO they will eventually be able to drive out Russian tanks even from the farmland.

The era of tanks has ended - the 2020 Armenian-Azeri War showed this. Putin failed to take notes.

Armenian tanks were massacred by Azeri drones (supplied to Azerbaijan by Turkey).

Ukrainians apparently also have Turkish drones, and they have NLAW from Sweden.

NLAW is a simple in use, cheap to produce weapon, which can destroy a modern tank with one hit.

Malaparte said:

motivated by the US foreign policy elite to (1) push Russia out of Europe and (2) keep Germany down.

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Not sure if true or fake news:

https://www-tvp-info.translate.goog...mbasadora?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl

"- There is no point in helping you, because Ukraine has only hours left - this was the answer the Ukrainian ambassador heard from German politicians."

^^^ If only it didn't take them a month to deliver 5000 helmets: :embarassed:

https://sports.yahoo.com/5-000-helmets-germany-offered-175355794.html

I feel bad for the Ukrainian people, that they need to be in this war. But I think it is clear that NATO/USA is not going to help them in a meaningful way, before Russia takes over the rest of the country. Frankly, I think the President of Ukraine should concede defeat, at this point, to prevent anymore fatalities. They are now sending civilians to their deaths, to fight the Russians. Nobody is going to come to help them.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/25/ukraine-civilians-weapons-molotov/

^^^
I've read that Germans apologized for taking a whole month to deliver the helmets & explained that it took so long because, quote:

"We didn't know the exact address where they should be delivered."

^^^
I thought that Ukrainian president is a professional comedian, not German chancellor.

Jovialis said:

I think the President of Ukraine should concede defeat, at this point

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Can you show any evidence of such a defeat?

Because Ukrainians keep uploading many videos showing that Russians are taking a beating:


Why are Russians not uploading similar videos, showing Ukrainian prisoners of war, etc. ???

Where is the evidence of Ukrainian defeat? Where is the evidence of heavy Ukrainian losses?

If they actually suffer a defeat, I'm sure they will concede it.

But it would be absurd to concede a non-existent defeat.

Maybe let the Ukrainians judge when they are defeated.

Jovialis said:

They are now sending civilians to their deaths, to fight the Russians.

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These are volunteers, nobody is forcing them. There were more volunteers than available weapons.

They equipped 18,000 civilians with AK-74 rifles, but the number of volunteers was actually higher.

When your freedom is at stake, death is not the worst outcome.
You think Ukrainians do not know what being a subject to Russia means? The holodmor was a thing, so was the Soviet union.

I am surprised by Jovialis post, thought as one of the free from the home of the brave he might relate.

My only worry right now is that p is not a rational actor anymore. Nuclear war is a very real possibility when rationality is not involved. Been following the Russian media with a focus on the opposition media, mainly the public discourse, and it seems neither the mothers of the Russian conscripts with less than 3 months of training being sent to invade a foreign nation, neither the general public that will bear the shame and repercussions of it are very happy. If p's power starts to slip under his feet, he might not just off himself in a bunker, he might take everyone with him. Why I understand that despite their willingness NATO/US can not help with troops on the ground.

Jovialis said:

Frankly, I think the President of Ukraine should concede defeat, at this point, to prevent anymore fatalities. They are now sending civilians to their deaths, to fight the Russians. Nobody is going to come to help them.

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The US led the Ukrainians down the primrose path. But why? This is the question that any thoughtful person must ask himself.

Tomenable said:

If they actually suffer a defeat, I'm sure they will concede it.

But it would be absurd to concede a non-existent defeat.

Maybe let the Ukrainians judge when they are defeated.

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Does nothing in this episode remind you of the UK encouraging Polish intransigence in 1939?

Well Germany just approved a significant "Lethal aide" package to Ukraine. At least 1,000 anti Tank weapons and also anti-aircraft weapons as well. I would think these weapons will be brought to the border of Ukraine and then the Ukrainian resistance will have to get them to the destinations where they are needed. USA has approved something similar, as Belgium, Netherlands, etc, etc. There may be others that I have missed. Poland I know already has been doing that.

Tomenable said:

Can you show any evidence of such a defeat?
Because Ukrainians keep uploading many videos showing that Russians are taking a beating:

Why are Russians not uploading similar videos, showing Ukrainian prisoners of war, etc. ???
Where is the evidence of Ukrainian defeat? Where is the evidence of heavy Ukrainian losses?

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Why are they reduced to sending ordinary citizens into battle? Sounds like Berlin 1945.

bigsnake49 said:

I thought it was a brilliant strategy to lure the Russians to the cities where gorilla warfare is much more effective. Since Ukraine has no tank force to speak off they let the Russians have the farmland. Ask the Americans how bad it got with IEDs and rocket propelled grenades in Baghdad or Kandahar.

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Russia didn't fare very well in Afghanistan either. Nobody ever learns anything.

Archetype0ne said:

When your freedom is at stake, death is not the worst outcome.
You think Ukrainians do not know what being a subject to Russia means? The holodmor was a thing, so was the Soviet union.

I am surprised by Jovialis post, thought as one of the free from the home of the brave he might relate.

My only worry right now is that p is not a rational actor anymore. Nuclear war is a very real possibility when rationality is not involved. Been following the Russian media with a focus on the opposition media, mainly the public discourse, and it seems neither the mothers of the Russian conscripts with less than 3 months of training being sent to invade a foreign nation, neither the general public that will bear the shame and repercussions of it are very happy. If p's power starts to slip under his feet, he might not just off himself in a bunker, he might take everyone with him. Why I understand that despite their willingness NATO/US can not help with troops on the ground.

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The majority of Americans don't even want to get involved.

Majority in U.S. oppose major role in Russia-Ukraine conflict, says AP-NORC poll

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politi...-in-russia-ukraine-conflict-says-ap-norc-poll

Angela said:

Russia didn't fare very well in Afghanistan either. Nobody ever learns anything.

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Those generals and colonels ar probably dead.

Talking about Afghanistan, an extremely inhumane weapon, the incendiary and thermobaric rocket launchers have been deployed to the front according to CNN. Besides Afghanistan they have been deployed by Russia to Syria and Libya. The first works by vaporizing human bodies and the second by crushing human's chest.

https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...-1-heavy-flamethrower-near-ukraine-cnn-2022-2

Good move Russia, you are definitely winning the PR war. I mean besides @malaparte, the "bad part".

Malaparte said:

The US led the Ukrainians down the primrose path. But why? This is the question that any thoughtful person must ask himself.

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https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/1082172618/why-ukraine-gave-up-its-nukes

Malaparte: While I did not vote for Bill Clinton either in 1992 or 1996, I don't think the USA deliberately did anything to Ukraine. Remember Major was PM of the UK, part of the Thatcher wing of the Conservative party in the UK (She was Reagan's best Ally and co-partner in NATO). So Clinton and Major together negotiated a deal with the Russians and Ukrainians to get the weapons out. Ukraine thought they had a binding agreement. Russia when they invaded Ukraine in 2014 simply said that was a different government that signed that deal, the Putin government does not recognize it. So it was the naivete of both Clinton and Major, and perhaps the thinking of the Ukrainians that at least the USA and UK would hold Russia accountable, even without acting with NATO. And it was even more naïve after the 2014 invasion into Ukraine to get more hooked on Putin for Oil and Gas supplies via direct pipelines.

In my view, just a diplomatic FUBAR that was not done with any bad intent. But what is happening with Ukraine does have implications for the Asia-Pacific region. North Korea is watching the Ukraine situation and thinking of they had those weapons, Putin doesn't invade. While North Korea is somewhat under Communist China's orbit, they are the only ones that have some influence over Kim, they are not giving up Nuclear weapons.

aalexa said:

I don't know, if it's real... but I read that "Biden now wants to provide $ 6.4 billion in assistance to Ukraine and NATO countries in Eastern Europe" If the information real !? ... I'm now amazed to hear that now, when at any moment, the insane terrorist Putin and his Kremlin assassins, with Mongolian mentality of 1100 years ago, can throw not only ukraine or Eastern Europe, but all of humanity into the madness of Hell! I do not think that the Bolshevik insanity Hitker II will back down immediately upon hearing this initiative.

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If all of these countries, including the U.S., had imposed some of these sanctions earlier, things might not have reached this point. As for Biden's statement that we'll wait and see where things stand, it's beyond ludicrous. They don't HAVE a month. Trump is no better. Is he ever going to learn to shut tf UP? My poor adopted country: run by a pathetic, senile, fool who every day proves that his colleagues were correct to name him the dumbest man in the Senate, and having to listen to the joker on the side making his own stupid comments.

Anybody who has ever really objectively studied European history knows that you appease aggressors at your peril. They are never satisfied; Napoleon wasn't satisfied, Hitler wasn't satisfied, and Putin won't be satisfied. Sooner or later you have to face them.

The west waited too long in the lead up to the Second World War. They should have been listening to Churchill, not Chamberlain. It was only when Hitler took Poland that the west finally responded and then only because they were bound by treaties to defend it. Had they prepared for eventual war instead of giving up a free people to the Nazis they might have been able to counter Hitler better when he turned west, as anyone with a brain should have known he would do.

Instead, he took over all of the west, and had men staring across the Channel at Britain. It was a very near thing for Britain; there hadn't been enough time to arm them. Had Germany continued its air offensive, Britain might have fallen too, with no place left to gather the men and materiel to invade the continent.

Jovialis said:

The majority of Americans don't even want to get involved.

Majority in U.S. oppose major role in Russia-Ukraine conflict, says AP-NORC poll

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politi...-in-russia-ukraine-conflict-says-ap-norc-poll

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Don't get me wrong. I get the war fatigue in the US public and am aware of the polls. But the future of the free world might be at the crossroads here, maybe even more than the free world, the whole world order is put to a test and might crash to ashes, whatever will raise from it, it is in the interest of the free world for the US to have a say in it. The league of nations WW1-WW2, the united nations WW2-now, these are namely the previous two world orders we went through, both spearheaded by the US and stationed in NY. No one can deny despite the steep costs how much the United States and the $ has benefited from these two world orders. Now the world order is being questioned. I wonder what the next status quo will be.

Sorry for the tone in the previous post.
Also freedom is worth it. Sadly most people do not know what they have until they stand to lose it. We should not take our rights for granted.

Palermo Trapani said:

It is not totally gone, but it is heading that way. Neo Liberal Democrats and Neo Con Republicans and their system and order that they put in place after the fall of the Soviet Union in my view is over. China and COVID-19 and its impact on supply chains, Russia and the Ukraine invasion and Europe's reliance on Russian Oil and Gas all show that you can't have your country reliant on rogue states for the vital supplies you need.

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The aim of Dugin the ideological Rasputin behind Putin is not more and nothing less to destroy his supposed 'liberal totalitarianism' with the US in front of it. We must not let that happen!

Looking anxiously at the rising oil prices and basing his vote on that. Time to show that we are more than that!

But if economic thoughts or thoughts about money permeate everything, then that grumbling will happen. You would agree with them, right?

Roar of laughter in the Kremlin because then the liberal world image is no more than a collection of $$$

It is high time to show that a resilient democracy involves more than the height of oil and gas prices.

I see that many, especially Americans, are talking about woke and Marxists before and after, all fine, but NOW in the actual fifth column are the authoritarian populists. The Kremlin has actively supported the election of Trump in 2016, and oh how Putin must have laughed at himself when that plan also came out. He could not have wished for a better destabilization of the USA.

A re-election of Trump, especially given the recent statements, but also with the same authoritarian populist background, we would be at the mercy of Putin. The NATO would be gone or become a lame duck. In that sense, I'm happy to have Biden in the White House, the old fox of foreign policy.

That fifth column of the Kremlin is really becoming a thing, one of the Dutch Putin's ideological 'relatives' has already been brought into contact with money from the Kremlin in the past and is now praising Putin to heaven.... The AfD in Germany ditto . So it doesn't stand alone. And still Angela starts to whine about woke and Marxists, man, take those Trumpists hard!

When Baudet and Trump's crouched texts for the Kremlin were in the 1950s at the time of the Hungarian uprising, Mc Carthy would have been behind the door, now it's all innocent Palermo?