MARÍA CUESTA / MADRID
[FONT=arial !important]Día 04/11/2012 - 17.05h[/FONT]
When the "pull" independence sentimental appeal Artur Mas was beginning to waver the first symptoms of the shift in the President's speech was the Generalitat book. In economic crisis, battered played pocket appeal to citizens to score against Madrid supporters. The germ of the economic injury was years maturing in Catalan society and was an asset politically infallible.
But economic arguments should match the numbers and deepen the thesis of the independence movement involves exposing a cluster of traps that have not overlooked major international investment banks. The Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS), the Japanese bank Nomura and JP Morgan's U.S. entity, true poodles of thousands of investors around the world have posted respective reports that much of the sales pitch collapse used by the Generalitat. In short, more debt and more deficits, and, of course, greater reluctance of international investors towards a territory, independent, very likely be out of the euro and the European Union.
It is true that this hypothetical new state taxes entirely would be generated in the territory (the tax currently raises about 32,000 million in Catalonia, money that would go to the new state if it maintained the current tax structure). Since budgeted revenues in 2012 of the Generalitat exceed 24,750 million, the money collected for the coffers would Catalan additional resources of about 7250 billion. But those revenues would be insufficient to cover the new expenses.
The independent Catalonia should take the share of the current state públicadel debt and would face new charges that are now covered with the common box. The payment of pensions, unemployment benefits, the service of foreign policy and military defense structure are just a few examples that have brought out the big banks experts internationally, have made clear they do not believe the But independence chimera.
"Economically unimaginable»
The firm Nomura did not hesitate to give a reality check to feint the president of the Generalitat, Artur Mas, "The financial position of Catalonia suggests that a referendum is very unlikely due to its dependence on state funding." The application of Catalonia over 5,000 million Autonomous Liquidity Fund (FLA) to meet expenses such as staff payroll or pay suppliers, is undoubtedly one of the main contradictions of independence challenge. And they exposed the Japanese bank, one of the most influential investment firms in markets: "In terms of market implications of event risk, we believe that a vote on independence is the worst possible scenario."
"Multiply the image of instability in Spain»
But the main argument of the Japanese entity is based on the impossibility of the challenge to the practice: "It would be economically unthinkable, especially for the size of the banking sector Catalan 'which, he says, suffer" negative consequences such as the flight of deposits. " And is that the large banks based in Catalonia, La Caixa Sabadell, has long ceased to be Catalans in terms of business and have a significant-and growing-presence in the country. This not only happens to the banks. Flagships of Catalan business as Natural Gas are, in practice, large multinationals operating nationally and internationally.
The bank Nomura also highlights the damage that the initiative of Artur Mas is doing the whole of Spain at a time of particular sensitivity of the markets. The bank says in fact that progress electotal could "accelerate the dynamics that lead to a ransom demand for Spain." "The events in Catalonia could not come at a worse time for the Government of Mariano Rajoy," he says. However, the entity qualifies: "In our opinion, this is a speech with which, in reality, the region plans to expand its fiscal autonomy." Because that generate noise elections and independence rhetoric merely multiply the image of instability in the country in the face of some investors already reluctant to Spain, concludes the Japanese.
"A bleak future and disastrous"
"Can Catalonia leave Spain? The short answer is no. " It's sharp displays the Swiss investment bank UBS in a report distributed among its customers and which removed one by one the economic arguments put forward by More in his pulse independence. The bank assumes that "the Spanish Constitution is quite clear" and Article 149 states that only the central government can authorize a referendum. Yet the bank's exercise goes further: "Assuming that the consultation is carried out and Catalonia finally declares independence, what are the economic forecasts? We think gloomy and disastrous. "
"The new nation would have great obstacles fisclaes»
Let's see why. Catalonia's debt guaranteed by Spain at the end of the year will amount to 42,000 million euros, which represents 21% of GDP. "This will become one of the least indebted countries in Europe," he says. Of course, then clarifies: these numbers do not include the division of the assets and liabilities of the entire State. "And that's the key," says UBS. Making a move in proportion, the bank estimates that, really, the independent Catalonia debt would soar to 78.4%, in line with the figure for the whole of Spain.
The most "tricky" is in Swiss bank plabras the effect that independence would have on the deficit. Catalonia ended 2011 with a deficit of 3.7% of GDP, so that, assuming good numbers provided by the Government of Mas, who argues that this region contributes 8% of GDP in Spain, secession would be a surplus 4% for Catalonia. However, UBS doubts these calculations because "ignore how divided the assets of the State" and "the great tax obstacles" that the new nation would. For starters, Catalonia must meet the payment of more than 7,000 million in debt maturities in 2013 and access to funding markets has closed. In fact, UBS notes that the region has had to resort to Autonomous Liquidity Fund (FLA), "so the workout with investors would be very difficult."
But the big question for investors would, according to UBS, would be this: "Where would stand financially Catalonia?». The bank itself gives the answer: "In Europe it seems not. It would be out of the EU and the Eurozone, "he says. A major problem when measuring the risk of the new country. "It would be disastrous", says UBS, who claims that he would close the export market and that costs would increase by having to launch a new currency. "The bankruptcy exit of banks and a sharp fall in wealth and income would be very likely" by the unstoppable effect the flight of capital. In addition, local financial institutions such as La Caixa Sabadell or would not have the safety net of the ECB.
"It would improve the fiscal situation»
U.S. bank JP Morgan shoots the heart of the separatist discourse: the alleged economic advantages of Catalonia as a nation. «Catalan not improve its fiscal path in an environment of independence," he says. In its recent report entitled "The real challenge asks questions Catalan to Europe", the entity considers that the alleged majority support of the Catalans to secession is not credible, stresses the illegality of an independence referendum in Catalonia, states that, if secession, Catalonia would be outside of the European Union and put black on white CiU actually settle for greater fiscal autonomy for the region.
However, JP Morgan warning of the hazard of the movement, which can give rise to other regions and even other EU countries, initiate similar claims. The bank also highlights the costs, if a hypothetical independence, should assume that actuamente assumes Catalonia and the Government, as administrative expenses, defense or security. "In a favorable scenario, with minimal transition costs, without producing a significant break trade with the rest of Spain, by reference to the fiscal deficit by the most pro-nationalist interests and estimating the costs assumed by the Government moderately, the benefit of secession would not reach 3% of GDP "he says.
