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Thread: Global warming, where are we heading to ?

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    It's easy for me to believe that there are dishonest and biased scientists pushing their own agenda any way they can. It's much harder to believe how easily public, politicians, many scientists are duped by "green agenda" based on incomplete data, alarmist politics, and mass-media that thrives on selling bad news mostly.
    Climate is so complicated and we just started understanding it, that it will take many more years of research, data verification, and best scientific minds to analyze it well.

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    Just read the whole thread. Maciamo, looks like you were a bit paranoid about global warming 3 year ago. I hope you had time to read the other side of the story.

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    IMO, what we're currently seeing could be the result of a combination of things. There isn't much doubt that so called greenhouse gasses are impacting on the earths ozone layer, helped along by the destruction of millions of hectares of natural forest. But no one seems to want to talk about the movement of earth Tectonic Plates. The one on which Australia is situated is apparently moving in a north easterly direction at about 7cm per year (at least I think it was per year). This being the case, in time all of the Tectonic Plates will move to accommodate each other, causing earth quakes and volcanic eruptions. It stands to reason that some plates which currently house the coldest areas on earth are likely to move south and become warmer etc. Of course this will mean the extinction of many species, but also some will adapt, and new ones will be created.

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    Quote Originally Posted by toyomotor View Post
    Of course this will mean the extinction of many species, but also some will adapt, and new ones will be created.
    Yep, pretty much a history of earth again and again. Life is ever changing.

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    I started this thread 13 years ago and the signs of global warming have only accelerated since then. LeBrok said I was paranoid about global warming in 2010, but 2013 to 2019 were the hottest years ever recorded.



    For the last two years grass in normally cool and rainy Belgium became completely desiccated in summer due to exceptional heat and drought, more typical of Spain than Belgium. This had never been seen before, not just in Belgium but in the northern half of Europe (above the 45th parallel). It feels like we already have a Mediterranean climate here now!

    This year cherry trees and forthysia in Brussels are in full bloom now from late February/early March instead of mid April. Some started blossoming at the beginning of February already. That's crazy! Overall we almost haven't had any frost all winter, even at night. The average temperatures have been hovering around 5 to 15°C, which is indeed more like a regular month of April than winter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    I started this thread 13 years ago and the signs of global warming have only accelerated since then. LeBrok said I was paranoid about global warming in 2010, but 2013 to 2019 were the hottest years ever recorded.



    For the last two years grass in normally cool and rainy Belgium became completely desiccated in summer due to exceptional heat and drought, more typical of Spain than Belgium. This had never been seen before, not just in Belgium but in the northern half of Europe (above the 45th parallel). It feels like we already have a Mediterranean climate here now!

    This year cherry trees and forthysia in Brussels are in full bloom now from late February/early March instead of mid April. Some started blossoming at the beginning of February already. That's crazy! Overall we almost haven't had any frost all winter, even at night. The average temperatures have been hovering around 5 to 15°C, which is indeed more like a regular month of April than winter.
    Being an ignorant about climate forecasts, what surprises me is that there are so many people using a "scandalized" tone of writing about feeling warmer than in the past, but then when you read what they write dispassionately, it seems clearly they are usually describing a "positive" process for them. But emotionally, it reads as if it were a disaster.

    I am really amazed by this cognitive dissonance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Farstar View Post
    Being an ignorant about climate forecasts, what surprises me is that there are so many people using a "scandalized" tone of writing about feeling warmer than in the past, but then when you read what they write dispassionately, it seems clearly they are usually describing a "positive" process for them. But emotionally, it reads as if it were a disaster.

    I am really amazed by this cognitive dissonance.
    I am not sure what you mean.

    Personally I am glad that the weather is warmer in Belgium and I think that applies to most people in northern Europe. We are less cold in winter, save money on heating, etc. But the problem is not our own selfish personal comfort in the present. Considering how fast this change has happened and how it seems to be accelerating, the worry is about the future. And not just the future where I live, but the future of the Earth. Global warming is bad for many reasons:

    - It will cause the rise of sea levels that will flood a lot of coastal cities worldwide, including many very large ones (New York, Boston, Washington, Vancouver, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Rio, Sao Paulo, London, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Lisbon, Barcelona, Dubai, Lagos, Bombay, Chennai, Calcutta, Dhaka, Bangkok, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Osaka, Tokyo, Yokohama, Sydney, Melbourne and so on). If I was only concerned about myself I wouldn't care. I live 80 metres above sea level.

    - Dry regions will become even drier, leading to further expansion of current deserts (Gobi is going to reach Beijing soon) and the creation of new ones.

    - People displaced by rising sea levels and desertification are going to cause massive immigration problems elsewhere.

    - More forest fires every summer are destroying the environment and people's homes, especially in regions with a Mediterranean climate like southern Europe, California and southern Australia.

    - Many species are disappearing due to climate change, especially those that cannot migrate easily elsewhere (e.g. amphibians).

    - And last but not least, there are major concerns that the melting of the Arctic ice will shift the Gulf Stream southward, which would cause a significant cooling of Europe, so that it's climate would become more alike to Siberia (despite global warming, ironically).


    So, as you can see, my concern is not that cherry trees are blossoming sooner and that we get to enjoy Spring one month earlier. It is what it means for our future. Think about the long-term implications.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    I am not sure what you mean.

    Personally I am glad that the weather is warmer in Belgium and I think that applies to most people in northern Europe. We are less cold in winter, save money on heating, etc. But the problem is not our own selfish personal comfort in the present. Considering how fast this change has happened and how it seems to be accelerating, the worry is about the future. And not just the future where I live, but the future of the Earth. Global warming is bad for many reasons:

    - It will cause the rise of sea levels that will flood a lot of coastal cities worldwide, including many very large ones (New York, Boston, Washington, Vancouver, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Rio, Sao Paulo, London, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Lisbon, Barcelona, Dubai, Lagos, Bombay, Chennai, Calcutta, Dhaka, Bangkok, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Osaka, Tokyo, Yokohama, Sydney, Melbourne and so on). If I was only concerned about myself I wouldn't care. I live 80 metres above sea level.

    - Dry regions will become even drier, leading to further expansion of current deserts (Gobi is going to reach Beijing soon) and the creation of new ones.

    - People displaced by rising sea levels and desertification are going to cause massive immigration problems elsewhere.

    - More forest fires every summer are destroying the environment and people's homes, especially in regions with a Mediterranean climate like southern Europe, California and southern Australia.

    - Many species are disappearing due to climate change, especially those that cannot migrate easily elsewhere (e.g. amphibians).

    - And last but not least, there are major concerns that the melting of the Arctic ice will shift the Gulf Stream southward, which would cause a significant cooling of Europe, so that it's climate would become more alike to Siberia (despite global warming, ironically).


    So, as you can see, my concern is not that cherry trees are blossoming sooner and that we get to enjoy Spring one month earlier. It is what it means for our future. Think about the long-term implications.
    What we need to look is pros and cons. For sure there will be some cons. Water level will increase in some places. I believe the Dutch are pretty good at building dykes, so I guess we can quantify this a bit. Less people will die, since people die less of heat than from cold. We should quantify that. The impact on GDP of natural disasters is going down over time a lot, due to better quality construction, Bjorn Lomborg has reported a lot on that.

    How do we measure the increase in happiness for say Russians, and the decrease in happiness to say Sahara desert inhabitants?

    Shouldn't Russians congratulate global warming? Shouldn't people preferring to be hot congratulate global warming? Shouldn't we have a discussion between pros and cons? You only highlight negatives, you do not describe the clear positives that warming will have.

    Also, where do we leave uncertainty in our knowledge? Waiting to have more data would allow us to act more precisely and with less costs.

    What about the costs to society of reducing economic growth? What about the probability increase of new wars, due to lack of economic growth? How should we price these risks?

    In fact, Western Europe was cleaner than Communist Europe. This was due to capitalism and better technology. But now, instead of better technology, Left Wingers tell us that we should become closer to Communism (more centralized control, more taxes) to combat warming. Really?

    We need a cost / benefit analysis on global warming, instead of religious-led bigotry by Collectivists and other Left Wingers.

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Farstar View Post
    What we need to look is pros and cons. For sure there will be some cons. Water level will increase in some places. I believe the Dutch are pretty good at building dykes, so I guess we can quantify this a bit. Less people will die, since people die less of heat than from cold. We should quantify that. The impact on GDP of natural disasters is going down over time a lot, due to better quality construction, Bjorn Lomborg has reported a lot on that.

    How do we measure the increase in happiness for say Russians, and the decrease in happiness to say Sahara desert inhabitants?

    Shouldn't Russians congratulate global warming? Shouldn't people preferring to be hot congratulate global warming? Shouldn't we have a discussion between pros and cons? You only highlight negatives, you do not describe the clear positives that warming will have.

    Also, where do we leave uncertainty in our knowledge? Waiting to have more data would allow us to act more precisely and with less costs.

    What about the costs to society of reducing economic growth? What about the probability increase of new wars, due to lack of economic growth? How should we price these risks?
    Ok, let's discuss the pros and cons of global warming. I am really interested to see your list of pros, apart from Northerners feel more comfy.

    Here is a page comparing the positives and negatives of global warming. The negatives overwhelm the positives.

    For me this is one of the most terrifying consequence of global warming: CNN - Climate change may doom 1 in 3 species of plants and animals in the next 50 years

    In fact, Western Europe was cleaner than Communist Europe. This was due to capitalism and better technology. But now, instead of better technology, Left Wingers tell us that we should become closer to Communism (more centralized control, more taxes) to combat warming. Really?
    I am, and have always been since my teens, a right-wing ecologist. You won't find more anti-communist than me. I am all for capitalism, but a respectful and sustainable capitalism, not a free-for-all devil-may-care let's-destroy-the-planet capitalism.

    We need a cost / benefit analysis on global warming, instead of religious-led bigotry by Collectivists and other Left Wingers.
    Actually the religious bigots are more often than not anti-environment Right Wingers. You can see it for yourself in these PewResearch articles on how Americans see climate change and U.S. concern about climate change is rising, but mainly among Democrats. Republicans, who are far more religious than Democrats, are the least concerned about climate change and environmental issues.

    In Europe, the most eco-conscious nations (UK, Scandinavian countries, Netherlands, Belgium, France, etc.) are also the least religious. Very religious countries like Poland, Romania, Bulgaria or Greece almost don't recycle and generally aren't much concerned about ecology.

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    The best thinking about this, IMHO, is by Bjorn Lomborg, see starting at 5:00 approx.:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otsJno55J0g

    He gives a nuanced and rational argumentation. He agrees there is global warming, and that global warming will probably result in some damage. But he quantifies that damage. And it results that the best we can do is a very light regulation. Instead, he shows that a forceful regulation will be very damaging, much more damaging that global warming itself.

    The religiousness about global warming has nothing to do with traditional religiousness. In fact, probably it is the opposite: people that have abandoned Christianity, they need to fill their soul with something else, and global warming, and in general the Woke movement, is probably the best they can find.

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Farstar View Post
    The best thinking about this, IMHO, is by Bjorn Lomborg, see starting at 5:00 approx.:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otsJno55J0g

    He gives a nuanced and rational argumentation. He agrees there is global warming, and that global warming will probably result in some damage. But he quantifies that damage. And it results that the best we can do is a very light regulation. Instead, he shows that a forceful regulation will be very damaging, much more damaging that global warming itself.
    I agree that not all policies about global warming are enlightened or properly directed. But that doesn't mean that nothing should be done.

    Regarding Bjorn Lombord's points:

    1. Droughts : I never really considered whether temporary periods of droughts are getting more common. What is sure is that desertification is getting worse. It's not the same thing. Droughts are just short periods with less rain than usual. Desertification is a relatively permanent advance of the desert. Just look at this map to see the areas in orange and red where the situation is getting worse.


    2. Floods : his arguments that floods are not more common with global warming, but less common, is based entirely on the costs of flood damages in the US! Talk about misleading the audience. Infrastructure has greatly improved over the last 100 years to prevent floods, notably with channelization (concrete embankments), dams, coastal defences, self-closing flood barrier and retention basins.

    3. Hurricanes : again, he picks and chooses his data and limits it to the USA to claim that there hasn't been much change over the past century. It's wrong as explained here.

    4. Wildfires : ditto. There are plenty of scientific studies that show that wildfires are on the rise globally. This article from the NASA has a satellite video showing the increase in CO2 emissions from wildfires from 2003 to 2018 in case you doubt things that you cannot see with your own eyes.

    The religiousness about global warming has nothing to do with traditional religiousness. In fact, probably it is the opposite: people that have abandoned Christianity, they need to fill their soul with something else, and global warming, and in general the Woke movement, is probably the best they can find.
    The Woke movement is an African-American movement concerning social justice and racial justice, like Black Lives Matter. What does that have to do with climate change or this discussion?

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    The data Lomborg gives is based on the IPCC results and on Nordhaus work (Nobel Prize). No distorted data, being shouted by ideologues completely dominated by hatred and ideology, can be compared to that.

    Let us stick to good quality data: IPCC, Nordhaus. The rest is (worse than) noise.

    The Woke movement is much more than BLM. In Europe, there is a lot of Woke movement, but no BLM per se. Please.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    Ok, let's discuss the pros and cons of global warming. I am really interested to see your list of pros, apart from Northerners feel more comfy.

    Here is a page comparing the positives and negatives of global warming. The negatives overwhelm the positives.

    For me this is one of the most terrifying consequence of global warming: CNN - Climate change may doom 1 in 3 species of plants and animals in the next 50 years



    I am, and have always been since my teens, a right-wing ecologist. You won't find more anti-communist than me. I am all for capitalism, but a respectful and sustainable capitalism, not a free-for-all devil-may-care let's-destroy-the-planet capitalism.



    Actually the religious bigots are more often than not anti-environment Right Wingers. You can see it for yourself in these PewResearch articles on how Americans see climate change and U.S. concern about climate change is rising, but mainly among Democrats. Republicans, who are far more religious than Democrats, are the least concerned about climate change and environmental issues.

    In Europe, the most eco-conscious nations (UK, Scandinavian countries, Netherlands, Belgium, France, etc.) are also the least religious. Very religious countries like Poland, Romania, Bulgaria or Greece almost don't recycle and generally aren't much concerned about ecology.
    Greeks are not very religious.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    Greeks are not very religious.
    Based on what? Your personal opinion?

    PewResearch conducted several surveys of religiosity in Europe, including one specifically about the Greeks. 76% of Greeks said that it was important to be Christian to be truly Greek. 59% believe in God with absolute certainty (against 15% in average for Western Europe). 55% say that religion is important in their lives (against 11% in average for Western Europe). In fact the religiosity of the Greeks is almost as strong as that of American Christians, and that says a lot.




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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    Based on what? Your personal opinion?

    PewResearch conducted several surveys of religiosity in Europe, including one specifically about the Greeks. 76% of Greeks said that it was important to be Christian to be truly Greek. 59% believe in God with absolute certainty (against 15% in average for Western Europe). 55% say that religion is important in their lives (against 11% in average for Western Europe). In fact the religiosity of the Greeks is almost as strong as that of American Christians, and that says a lot.



    Not my opinion, my observations over the last 50 years. While religion might be important as part of the national identity to be a Greek, actively believing and practicing religion has gone way way down. Going to church once a year for Easter does not make one religious. If you go to a church on any given Sunday, you will see very few people there and then 95% old people. . Religiosity increases among rural areas, less educated and older folks. Even in the US, where the Greek churches have more active participation than in Greece, the interest is more cultural and social than religious. Did Pew ask their respondents how often they pray? That will give you an indication of how religious they are. When I was a young lad the state forced us to go to church every Sunday and they would take absences. Is that being religious? In small towns there was societal pressure to show up at church. Is that being religious?

    Remember that Greece during the exchange of populations in 1922 with Turkey received all groups that were religiously aligned with the Patriarchate of Constantinople. Those included Turcophones and Arvanites, not strictly Greek speakers. So Christianity was a unifying factor even if genetics or language was not. For my father's generation it was important to be identified as a Greek Orthodox (although there are some minority Greek Catholics in some of the islands). It is still important as part of the identity it is still part of "us" vs "them" but being born in Greece and speaking Greek is now more important. We don't consider the Turkish speaking Muslim minority in Western Thrace as Greeks we consider them as Turks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Farstar View Post
    The data Lomborg gives is based on the IPCC results and on Nordhaus work (Nobel Prize). No distorted data, being shouted by ideologues completely dominated by hatred and ideology, can be compared to that.

    Let us stick to good quality data: IPCC, Nordhaus. The rest is (worse than) noise.
    So you are resorting to an argumentum ab auctoritate, a type of logical fallacy. There is no Nobel Prize in climatology. William Nordhaus is an economist, and if you knew him at all, you'd know that he was rewarded by a Nobel Prize for ringing the alarm bells about the potentially catastrophic impacts of climate change. Bjorn Lomborg just picks and chooses data to try to contradict Nordhaus, which he does very poorly, as I explained above.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    Not my opinion, my observations over the last 50 years. While religion might be important as part of the national identity to be a Greek, actively believing and practicing religion has gone way way down. Going to church once a year for Easter does not make one religious. If you go to a church on any given Sunday, you will see very few people there and then 95% old people. . Religiosity increases among rural areas, less educated and older folks. Even in the US, where the Greek churches have more active participation than in Greece, the interest is more cultural and social than religious. Did Pew ask their respondents how often they pray? That will give you an indication of how religious they are. When I was a young lad the state forced us to go to church every Sunday and they would take absences. Is that being religious? In small towns there was societal pressure to show up at church. Is that being religious?

    Remember that Greece during the exchange of populations in 1922 with Turkey received all groups that were religiously aligned with the Patriarchate of Constantinople. Those included Turcophones and Arvanites, not strictly Greek speakers. So Christianity was a unifying factor even if genetics or language was not. For my father's generation it was important to be identified as a Greek Orthodox (although there are some minority Greek Catholics in some of the islands). It is still important as part of the identity it is still part of "us" vs "them" but being born in Greece and speaking Greek is now more important. We don't consider the Turkish speaking Muslim minority in Western Thrace as Greeks we consider them as Turks.
    What you are saying is that the Greeks are less religious now than 100 years ago. But that is true for all Westerners, even Americans. It's just that religiosity has fallen much more quickly and Western and Northern Europe, so by comparison the Greeks are still quite religious. The very fact that a majority of Greeks assert that religion is (very) important in their lives and that it defines their identity is enough for me to consider them very religious.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    What you are saying is that the Greeks are less religious now than 100 years ago. But that is true for all Westerners, even Americans. It's just that religiosity has fallen much more quickly and Western and Northern Europe, so by comparison the Greeks are still quite religious. The very fact that a majority of Greeks assert that religion is (very) important in their lives and that it defines their identity is enough for me to consider them very religious.
    Clarify religion , do you have to belong to a Religious institution/faith?
    ..................In the last Australian census , it was noted that no-religion was the second most popular at over 35% ( christian was first at 51% ) ......of the 35% , 7% believed in God or a God, but do not believe in any religious institution, yet this option was placed with no-religion group ...............same as the indigenous % faith under the term Dream-Time

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    I started this thread 13 years ago and the signs of global warming have only accelerated since then. LeBrok said I was paranoid about global warming in 2010, but 2013 to 2019 were the hottest years ever recorded.



    For the last two years grass in normally cool and rainy Belgium became completely desiccated in summer due to exceptional heat and drought, more typical of Spain than Belgium. This had never been seen before, not just in Belgium but in the northern half of Europe (above the 45th parallel). It feels like we already have a Mediterranean climate here now!

    This year cherry trees and forthysia in Brussels are in full bloom now from late February/early March instead of mid April. Some started blossoming at the beginning of February already. That's crazy! Overall we almost haven't had any frost all winter, even at night. The average temperatures have been hovering around 5 to 15°C, which is indeed more like a regular month of April than winter.
    wasn't it stated it was 1 degree warmer in roman times and so it was wetter and more humid around the med ............and with this the romans had 85% of their grain/wheat been grown and coming from modern Algeria ...............it was termed " the Granary of Rome "
    the importance of Africa, there is little doubt among historians that Africa and Egypt were the most important sources of grain for Rome.[11] To help assure that the grain supply would be adequate for Rome, in the second century BCE, Gracchus settled 6,000 colonists near Carthage, giving them about 25 hectares (62 acres) each to grow grain.[12]
    Grain made into bread was, by far, the most important element in the Roman diet. Several scholars have attempted to compute the total amount of grain need to supply the city of Rome. Rickman estimated that Rome needed 40 million modii (200,000 tonnes) of grain per year to feed its population.[13] Erdkamp estimated that the amount needed would be at least 150,000 tonnes, calculating that each resident of the city consumed 200 kilograms (440 lb) of grain per year.[14] The total population of Rome assumed in calculating these estimates was between 750,000 and one million people. David Mattingly and Gregory Aldrete[15] estimated the amount of imported grain at 237,000 tonnes for 1 million inhabitants;[16] This amount of grain would provide 2,326 calories daily per person not including other foods such as meats, seafood, fruit, legumes, vegetable and dairy. The Historia Augusta, states that Severus left 27 million modii in storage, enough for 800,000 inhabitants at 225 kilograms (496 lb) of bread per person per annum.[17]




    plus the bulk of shipping timbers for Carthaginians and later roman fleets coming from cypress pines of north africa.....................

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by torzio View Post
    wasn't it stated it was 1 degree warmer in roman times and so it was wetter and more humid around the med ............and with this the romans had 85% of their grain/wheat been grown and coming from modern Algeria ...............it was termed " the Granary of Rome "
    Yes, there was a Roman warm period from 250 BCE to AD 400 CE, then a Medieval Warm Period from 950 to c. 1250 CE, but it was warm in comparison to the much cooler periods in between, and the Little Ice Age that last from approximately 1300 to 1850. The Roman Warm period was similar to late 19th and early 20th century. The Medieval Warm period was like the mid 20th century. We are now well beyond that.



    Zooming on the last 170 years



    So what we call Roman Warm period was actually - 0.5°C cooler than the reference year of 1980 and over 1.5°C cooler than the last five years. It wouldn't be so bad if global warming suddenly stopped now. But given the trajectory, it is set to increase by another full degree within 20 to 30 years, which would bring us 2.5°C above the Roman Warm and 3°C above the Little Ice Age low of the late 1500's. Note that the gap between the lowest point of the Little Ice Age and the Roman Warm is only 0.5°C. So 1°C is a lot. Try to imagine what +3°C represents.

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