European Future?

[edao]

Below are 3 senarios for the future of Europe, which option would you preffer?

Option 1
A decade of very low growth and high unemployment all ‘round. The danger is that in a decade’s time, Europeans will be so thoroughly disillusioned with the European project that it will fall apart politically.

Option 2
The second scenario is default—whether partial or full. A partial default or debt restructuring exercise will, minimally, involve losses for creditor banks in Germany and France and necessitate further bailouts. Maximally, debtor-led full default would lead some Club-Med countries to leave the Eurozone, entailing the possible demise of the single currency. Alternatively, growing German resistance to ‘bailouts’ and a serious falling out with Paris over its export-led growth model might lead Germany to quit the euro and revert to its beloved DM.

Option 3
The third scenario is fundamental reform of the Eurozone: the establishment of a genuine European Treasury with a substantial budget and fiscal powers and reform of the ECB, starting with the emission of federal Eurobonds. It is becoming increasingly clear that if the euro is to be saved, this is the path Europeans will need to adopt. By contrast, universal fiscal retrenchment enforced by levying fines on ‘profligate countries’ fails to address the real issues.

Source

[Garrick]

edao
Reputation for excellent topic and I think that in the coming years Europe will grow stronger.

Europe, clearly, can not, and certainly will not allow to lag behind while others are advancing.

Certainly, Europe will realize the actions and implement changes that lead to progress.

[Carlitos]

We must not lose hope when things go wrong.

Anyway, besides the political changes must be made moral changes occur, at least to my country's political class lacks a moral redemption shall discharge Europe, because they are stuck, my country is to head on drugs, corruption and etc. of bad things and our politicians believe that washing your face deceive the European Union, but I think it's time the European Union to put the batteries in the Spanish political class.

[edao]

Dominique Strauss-Kahn on the economic problems of the Eurozone


watch interview on youtube

[Cimmerianbloke]

Excellent question, I might sound extreme in voting for the first option, but you must sometimes cut the leg to save the patient. The question is being a major issue now that any soft landing on Greek bailout, with possible ripple effects for Ireland and Spain, is now out of question. I opened another thread discussing giving back more responsabilities to national governments. it seems that, against all odds, a 2-speed Europe is the most adapted solution to the current situation. Option 3 is sweet but cannot be implemented in our lifetime due to the current decision-making process (or the lack of it...).

[edao]

Looking back at this post I think we will probably see a combination of 2 & 3. Partial default of debt for countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal, which will be allowed to happen in more prosperous economic conditions if they arise (5-10 years from now).

This will no doubt create another shock wave through the global financial system but will be used to tie in Eurozone countries to a very rigid fiscal pact. It will be a half way house to a federal Europe.

I don't see the breakdown of the Eurozone happening. Greece and Portugal can't realistically leave the Euro because their new currency would depreciate very quickly. Most people would move their money out of those countries, the resulting currency flight would cripple their financial system. Also any remaining debts would be problematic as they would be in Euros.

That would leave the option of Germany and France exiting the Euro, with Germany enjoying booming exports why would they want a strong DM2 getting in the way. With the current situation France and Germany can play emperor of Europe, weak eurozone countries put them in the driving seat.

[iapetoc]

Looking back at this post I think we will probably see a combination of 2 & 3. Partial default of debt for countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal, which will be allowed to happen in more prosperous economic conditions if they arise (5-10 years from now).

This will no doubt create another shock wave through the global financial system but will be used to tie in Eurozone countries to a very rigid fiscal pact. It will be a half way house to a federal Europe.

I don't see the breakdown of the Eurozone happening. Greece and Portugal can't realistically leave the Euro because their new currency would depreciate very quickly. Most people would move their money out of those countries, the resulting currency flight would cripple their financial system. Also any remaining debts would be problematic as they would be in Euros.

That would leave the option of Germany and France exiting the Euro, with Germany enjoying booming exports why would they want a strong DM2 getting in the way. With the current situation France and Germany can play emperor of Europe, weak eurozone countries put them in the driving seat.

well it is not exactly like that,
1) think why Norway does not enter EU???
2) what is the future of Euro? 1 E = 1$ or 1 E = 2 $?
3) shocked countries are informed? the money that went abroad? if a new currency, and drop of it? do you believe that stay out?

situation is more complex than we know, the case of Greece is a test, for stronger countries shock.
Europe is testing on how countries would re-act.
think an economy stronger than Greece like Spain x4 the Greek population????
the whole case stings, from Greek gov/s to ECB to IMF.

[Dorianfinder]

The world is too fragmented and is suffering the consequences economically. Europe is suffering more than many others due to its higher levels of bureaucratic and political cronyism. Low productivity and redundant services such as translators and language centers place a large amount of the workforce outside the system. With increased integration countries within the Eurozone need to divide their resources and allocate their industries according to the bottom line. This is efficient and profitable. China and America have outpaced Europe simply because of their cohesive planning and lack of bureaucratic and technocratic nonsense. Europeans are fragmented psychologically and politically, the labor unions and churches have gotten involved in government.

[Deus]

The world is too fragmented and is suffering the consequences economically. Europe is suffering more than many others due to its higher levels of bureaucratic and political cronyism. Low productivity and redundant services such as translators and language centers place a large amount of the workforce outside the system. With increased integration countries within the Eurozone need to divide their resources and allocate their industries according to the bottom line. This is efficient and profitable. China and America have outpaced Europe simply because of their cohesive planning and lack of bureaucratic and technocratic nonsense. Europeans are fragmented psychologically and politically, the labor unions and churches have gotten involved in government.

Looks like it will continue.

[Reinaert]

I go for a communalistic Europe. The Europe of the regions. Great states like the USA, Russia, China and India show that too many rules are devastating. Even in a small country like The Netherlands we have too many rules!
The keyword is.. decentralization. Europe must never become a centralized state!

[Mzungu mchagga]

Communalism is nothing new, it has already worked very well in Europe for thousands of years! Then the Bronze Age came and the Neolithic was over.

[Reinaert]

Communalism is nothing new, it has already worked very well in Europe for thousands of years! Then the Bronze Age came and the Neolithic was over.

Very funny..
Communalism is still alive and kicking.
Any region in Europe has it's own regional products. We can outclass whatever country in the world if it comes to quality of food.
My message is, to dump MacDonalds, and other fast food junk, Coca Cola, Mars, and other unhealthy American shit, and to promote good European food.

Like the German original Bratwurst.. ;) On a rye bread, with a bit of senf. And a glass of German beer.

First of all, the EU is a consumer market, not a political system!

[Mzungu mchagga]

Forget about food!
What about high tech products as computers, any sorts of communication tools, medical products, vehicles, energy suppliers such as photovoltaics?
Do you think that people of one village or extended region will be able to produce and organize all that stuff on their own? That it will work if you hand a factory or a research institute over to the ownership of a kolkhoz of villages? States won't exist! Neither evil kerosine fueled transport vehicles like planes! What if some farmers say they are not willing to hand their products over to scientists (abstract sciences like maths) who have nothing to offer back?

[Reinaert]

Every region in the world should be able to produce it's own food. It's ridiculous what happens now. International transport is only possible because the fuel is kept on a low price. Airlines don't pay tax on fuel like cars and trucks have to.
Transport to far away places can be done by ships with modern technology that saves energy. The technology already exists.
And I guess you don't know the difference between communalism and anarchism. In communalism a state exists, but the overall government acts only for federal purposes. All other matters can be done by the regions.

And why wouldn't farmers hand over their products to scientists? Farmers will need new navigating systems for instance.
Things like GPS controlled harvesting, monitoring, and fertilization.
Each square meter can be monitored to produce an optimal quality of crops.

[Mzungu mchagga]

Reinaert, you know so much about communalism, love your region Brabant and are a Celtic warrior! Why don't you just form your regional communalist party and run candidate instead of sitting here?

[Reinaert]

Reinaert, you know so much about communalism, love your region Brabant and are a Celtic warrior! Why don't you just form your regional communalist party and run candidate instead of sitting here?

Because I am Celtic, hate politics, and try to convince people through understanding.
Today already, The Netherlands seems to break away from the Anglo-American economical model, in the direction of the Rhineland model. Yes, it's getting a speed up in my country.
Managers are considered as a pestilence now.

The Dutch are moving towards what I predicted.
Politics are ridiculed, what matters is economy.

[edao]

Looks like we are between options 2 & 3!

"NICOLAS Sarkozy is causing a big stir after calling on November 8thfor a two-speed Europe: a “federal” core of the 17 members of the euro zone, with a looser “confederal” outer band of the ten non-euro members. He made the comments during a debate with students at the University of Strasbourg." source

Watch Sarkozy Speech here!

[julia90]

i think europe is vital for my country.. because only with the imposition by europe our bureaucracy and, statal work could be cutted, it never happened before when the eu power on its states were lower, now the situation can change in good for italy..

[francois14]

Because I am Celtic, hate politics, and try to convince people through understanding.
Today already, The Netherlands seems to break away from the Anglo-American economical model, in the direction of the Rhineland model. Yes, it's getting a speed up in my country.
Managers are considered as a pestilence now.

The Dutch are moving towards what I predicted.
Politics are ridiculed, what matters is economy.

Such a hot topic and such low discussions ! Are you not worried about your/our own future ? It seems like politics have lost all their importance and economy is the only working force that will lead us to our success or our downfall... What about the European people themselves ??? Why do we lack interest ? Where is our European Community and where are its members ?

[Cimmerianbloke]

The point to join the EU was to get rich and move everyone up to middle class, and most people believed it. That is how some member states got into the spending frenzy and started the high life, feeling like money was growing on trees, or rather money was flowing at the end of a pen-stroke. Effort, discipline and hard work have become words fascists use. The funny thing is that it allowed Germany to achieve naturally the goal the fascist government did not reach with a war: total control of the continent...

[francois14]

From most peoples' answers it doesn't seem that you are putting much importance on the Europeans themselves, but rather economy and politics. Do you think that the EU and its Member States do not emphasize the role of its citizens as much ? Because from what I read, no one mentions what is key to the EU and that is its people. Do we not need some sort of European Identity to emerge from the current crises as one ?

[Carlos]

As European thought that it is the moment to sacrifice self-interest and individuals in favor of Europe, walking towards an entire union, identifying the enemies of Europe and neutralizing them. It has to begin to soak through the love towards Europe beyond the commerce, moral values and feeling to create the Europe of the future.

[francois14]

So you think that European people and values come after restoring some order in the EU ? I can understand that, but what do you mean by "neutralizing enemies" ? What do you think should be done to create this "Europe of the future" ?

[Cimmerianbloke]

A European identity never existed. Europe is at best the expression of occidental capitalism. The first crack in the building appears and we're all Greeks, Germans, Italians, French, blaming the others for their flaws. The EU integration program was supposed to tie us together but Brussels behave like the worst dictators when it did not acknowledge the "no" vote to the European Constitution referendums in France, Ireland and Holland. An irony for these idjeets that promote democracy abroad...
The project shows its limits to deal effectively with real-life crises and its failure to improve the citizens well-being and welfare. These goons are going to beat us 40 years back thanks to their uselessness.

[Carlos]

So you think that European people and values come after restoring some order in the EU ? I can understand that, but what do you mean by "neutralizing enemies" ? What do you think should be done to create this "Europe of the future" ?

I think that there are secret interests against Europe, which Europe must recognize, identify and netralizar.

I believe that to create the Europe of the future every country must sacrifice and resign from part of his individualism, at present each one pulls the rope and this energy must be canalized in the only direction, sacrifice and resignation I think that they are the key for a real European Union otherwise we are going to be devoured by our secret enemies, and do not ask me those who are, our leaders have to find out that, it is possible that we have the enemy inside, an allied mole of those who want the defeat and the destruction of Europe.