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Thread: Europe before the Indo-Europeans

  1. #1
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    Arrow Europe before the Indo-Europeans

    What did the genetic make-up of Europe look like in the late Neolithic, before the Indo-European invasions ? If we suppose that the Indo-Europeans were the ones who brought R1a1a, R1b1b2a1a and G2a3b1a to Central and Western Europe, then subtracting these haplogroups from the modern percentages should give us a (very) rough idea of the proportion of Native Paleolithic blood (hg I) vs Near-Eastern Neolithic blood (hg E, J and T + G subclades besides G2a3b1a).

    We should also consider the Germanic migrations that spread hg I1 beyond North Germany and Scandinavia. I don't think there would have been any significant level of I1 in the British Isles, France, Italy or Iberia before the early Middle Ages. Some R1b and R1a might also be Germanic, but we were going to subtract them anyway, it won't matter.

    Let's also take into account that the Romans might have spread some of their Y-DNA northwards, and later invaders, like the Normans in Britain, then the English in Ireland, might also have contributed to increase such haplogroups as E1b1b and J2 to the northern reaches of Europe.

    The Etruscans and the Greeks surely augmented the proportion of Near-Eastern haplogroups in Italy well after the Neolithic too.

    According to my calculations, Neolithic Europe looked approximately like this :


    Northern Europe

    - Finland : 100% Paleolithic vs 0% Neolithic

    - Scandinavia : 95% Paleolithic vs 5% Neolithic

    - Netherlands and North Germany : 75% Paleolithic vs 25% Neolithic

    - Britain : very hard to estimate due to the huge proportion of R1b and I1 nowadays, but probably 50% Paleolithic and 50% Neolithic.

    - Ireland : too much R1b to have a clue from modern Y-DNA percentages. Pure guess: 60% Paleolithic and 40% Neolithic.

    Western Europe

    - Belgium and West Germany : 40% Paleolithic vs 60% Neolithic

    - France and South Germany : 35% Paleolithic vs 65% Neolithic

    - North-East Iberia (Basque region) : 70% Paleolithic vs 30% Neolithic

    Southern Europe

    - South-West Iberia : 20% Paleolithic vs 80% Neolithic

    - Italy : 20% Paleolithic vs 80% Neolithic

    - Sardinia : 90% Paleolithic vs 10% Neolithic

    - Greece : difficult to say as a lot of I2a might have come from the Balkans between the Bronze Age and the Middle Ages, but probably 20% Paleolithic vs 80% Neolithic

    Central Europe

    - Poland : 65% Paleolithic vs 35% Neolithic

    - Czechoslovakia and Hungary : 40% Paleolithic vs 60% Neolithic

    - Austria : 30% Paleolithic vs 70% Neolithic

    Balkans

    - Croatia : 85% Paleolithic vs 15% Neolithic

    - Bosnia-Herzegovina : 70% Paleolithic vs 30% Neolithic

    - Serbia : 50% Paleolithic vs 50% Neolithic

    - Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia : 35% Paleolithic vs 65% Neolithic
    Last edited by Maciamo; 07-11-10 at 12:45.
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    Here is a map to illustrate my estimations. I left the presumed homeland of the Indo-Europeans (around the Black Sea + Russia) blank on purpose to avoid confusion.


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    As usual, nice work.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    What did the genetic make-up of Europe look like in the late Neolithic, before the Indo-European invasions ? If we suppose that the Indo-Europeans were the ones who brought R1a1a, R1b1b2a1a and G2a3b1a to Central and Western Europe, then subtracting these haplogroups from the modern percentages should give us a (very) rough idea of the proportion of Native Paleolithic blood (hg I) vs Near-Eastern Neolithic blood (hg E, J and T + G subclades besides G2a3b1a).

    We should also consider the Germanic migrations that spread hg I1 beyond North Germany and Scandinavia. I don't think there would have been any significant level of I1 in the British Isles, France, Italy or Iberia before the early Middle Ages. Some R1b and R1a might also be Germanic, but we were going to subtract them anyway, it won't matter.

    Let's also take into account that the Romans might have spread some of their Y-DNA northwards, and later invaders, like the Normans in Britain, then the English in Ireland, might also have contributed to increase such haplogroups as E1b1b and J2 to the northern reaches of Europe.

    The Etruscans and the Greeks surely augmented the proportion of Near-Eastern haplogroups in Italy well after the Neolithic too.

    According to my calculations, Neolithic Europe looked approximately like this :


    Northern Europe

    - Finland : 100% Paleolithic vs 0% Neolithic

    - Scandinavia : 95% Paleolithic vs 5% Neolithic

    - Netherlands and North Germany : 75% Paleolithic vs 25% Neolithic

    - Britain : very hard to estimate due to the huge proportion of R1b and I1 nowadays, but probably 50% Paleolithic and 50% Neolithic.

    - Ireland : too much R1b to have a clue from modern Y-DNA percentages. Pure guess: 60% Paleolithic and 40% Neolithic.

    Western Europe

    - Belgium and West Germany : 40% Paleolithic vs 60% Neolithic

    - France and South Germany : 35% Paleolithic vs 65% Neolithic

    - North-East Iberia (Basque region) : 70% Paleolithic vs 30% Neolithic

    Southern Europe

    - South-West Iberia : 20% Paleolithic vs 80% Neolithic

    - Italy : 20% Paleolithic vs 80% Neolithic

    - Sardinia : 90% Paleolithic vs 10% Neolithic

    - Greece : difficult to say as a lot of I2a might have come from the Balkans between the Bronze Age and the Middle Ages, but probably 20% Paleolithic vs 80% Neolithic

    Central Europe

    - Poland : 65% Paleolithic vs 35% Neolithic

    - Czechoslovakia and Hungary : 40% Paleolithic vs 60% Neolithic

    - Austria : 30% Paleolithic vs 70% Neolithic

    Balkans

    - Croatia : 85% Paleolithic vs 15% Neolithic

    - Bosnia-Herzegovina : 70% Paleolithic vs 30% Neolithic

    - Serbia : 50% Paleolithic vs 50% Neolithic

    - Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia : 35% Paleolithic vs 65% Neolithic
    It seems correct
    Nico

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    Here is a map to illustrate my estimations. I left the presumed homeland of the Indo-Europeans (around the Black Sea + Russia) blank on purpose to avoid confusion.
    again, how can least neolithic (Croatia) and most neolithic (Italy) part of Europe be part of the printed cardium pottery culture continuum during middle neolithic?



    how come on same place is hole in R1b, high variance and low frequency of both E-V13 and J2b2? isn't that an indication of massive depopulation event that have happened there?
    I think that cardium pottery culture was spread by J2b2 (and somewhat E-V13) in both Italy and Croatia... I2a2 came later, but I can't tell when...
    hole in R1b might indicate that this was the case after the celtic tribes have already spread to west Balkan....



    look at wikipedia figure showing celtic tribes



    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celtic_tribes

    possible explanation for lack of R1b where Celtic tribes were, are:
    1) these Celtic tribes are not really Celtic (highly probable),
    2) the people who originate from those celtic tribes disappeared (together with E-V13 and J2b2 people) in mass depopulation event. Such an event could have been fall of Roman empire, and retreat of East Roman empire towards south and east from areas of Bosnia and Croatia... this depopulation process would have reached its peak in the time of Ostrogothic empire.....



    note that major depopulation event would put most of I2a2 in west Balkan in position of rather reecent settlement....
    Last edited by how yes no 2; 11-11-10 at 22:07.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by how yes no View Post
    how come on same place is hole in R1b, high variance and low frequency of both E-V13 and J2b2? isn't that an indication of massive depopulation event that have happened there?....
    hole in R1b might indicate that this was the case after the celtic tribes have already spread to west Balkan....
    I shall first describe Illyria, which approaches close to the Danube, and to the Alps which lie between Italy and Germany, taking their commencement from the lake in the territory of the Vindelici, Rhæti, and Helvetii.7 [2]
    The Daci depopulated a part of this country in their wars with the Boii and Taurisci, Keltic tribes whose chief was Critasirus. The Daci claimed the country, although it was separated from them by the river Parisus,8 which flows from the mountains to the Danube, near the Galatæ Scordisci, a people who lived intermixed with the Illyrian and the Thracian tribes. The Illyrians were destroyed by the Daci, while the Scordisci were frequently their allies.
    The rest of the country as far as Segestica,9 and the Danube, towards the north and east, is occupied by Pannonii, but they extend farther in an opposite direction.
    http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/...r=5&highlight=
    Strabo (63/64 BC – ca. AD 24) - Geographica

    Thus, the area called Illyria (today Bosnia, Montenegro and Adriatic coast of Croatia) was depopulated in a war between Celts and Dacians... in time of Strabo, people living there were Pannoni...

    this historical source shows that classification (and perhaps the names of tribes as well) on wikipedia image claiming to show state in 6AD is completelly wrong and forged... at that time in area are no celtic and no illyrian tribes, only Pannonians... while some Illyrian tribes might at that time still exist south of Illyria (far away from depopulated region) in mountains of Albania...

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